Cringely's 2004 Predictions

somethinghollow writes "Cringely's 2004 Predictions are out, and he makes a very interesting claim concerning Linux: 'The SCO debacle has created a crisis within the Linux community. They pretend that it hasn't, but it has. This will come to a head in 2004 with either the development of a new organizational structure for Linux or the start of its demise. Linux has to grow or die, and the direction it takes will be determined in 2004.' With a claimed 70% successful prediction rate, you at least have to listen..."

Comments

I like this prediction...

[Anonymous Coward]

I predicted that Microsoft's Palladium security plan, now called Trustworthy Computing, would be distrusted and stall. That looks right to me.

Predicting that a microsoft security product isn't reliable? Predicting that a microsoft product is late?

Cringley is THE ORACLE!!

Give Me A Break...

[Bowie J. Poag]

"They like to pretend that it hasn't, but it has."

Yeah, just like I pretend that Cringley doesn't matter, but he does.

It must be growing

[rootnl]

It used to fit on one cd, now it's 3 or more.

Non-prediction

[wine]

Linux has to grow or die: how can this be not true?

I mean, isn't this like saying that the temperature tomorrow will either be lower of higher than today?

Re:Non-prediction

[bj8rn]

He should just as well have put these predictions in quatrain.

I. At the end of the year,
Two choose new and one
Will try to abuse, but
Cause in them no fear.

II.No man will be killed
By means of net, but
Many with their money
Will be parted.

III. The mail of lightning
Will useless be, so Big
Red something new proposes.
But beware of traps!

IV. Old things abandoned will be,
And this many in danger
Will certainly leave.
A rusty knife can still kill.

Need I go on?

Off to a bad start

[ozbird]

Come back in 365 more days and see how I did.

As 2004 is a leap year with 366 days, I'm guessing Cringely will get this prediction wrong...

Those are not predictions, but observations

[lastberserker]

Check #3, for example, we _know_ MSR is working on this (there was a story here recently). Or #4, which is simply general trend. #7 is a BS: "Someone is going to come out of this a big winner. I just don't know who it is." Most of the rest are the same, including #15. Gee, tell me more, old toad ;-P

My 2004 Prediction

[graveyardduckx]

I predict 2004 will be different than 2003. I also predict that my prediction will be right. Now why don't I get coverage when my predictions are more accurate?

My predictions for 2004

[ircShot_guN]

Wow, let's see if I can get a good success rate with MY predictions for 2004. - Apple products will stay overpriced. Mac activists will claim you get what you pay for. - The linux community will continue to hate SCO. - SCO's website will suffer at least 4 months worths of downtime from DDOS attacks due to the above prediction. - Bill Gates will remain wealther than Steve Jobs. - Whether from spam or elsewhere, I will be told I am not big enough. - Linus Torvald will recive Bill Gates nobel peace prize for donating $0 dollars worth or software to millions of needy people/corperations. Well, I'd say I am pretty close to 70 percent.

Re:Don't panic!

[nutshell42]

Hitchkiker's Guide to /. Linux Users: Don't Panic!

SCO:
Mostly Harmless

Re:Technogensia and the Fate of Free Software

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't see much difference between the ivory towers inhabited by Mr. Gates and Mr. Stallman -- their stated objectives may be different, but the end result is disturbingly similar.

Because Microsoft Word is just like GNU emacs.