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Linus on SCO, and the Desktop Being 10 Years Away
An anonymous reader writes "In this interview from last week's Linux.conf.au in Australia, Linus Torvalds talks about how the SCO lawsuit 'riled' him and led him to spend a week writing an application to archive his email, and how he think Linux will take 5 to 10 years to become mainstream on the desktop."
I don't know about you folks, but for me, when it comes to Desktop Linux, the journey really is much more rewarding and interesting than the destination.
I guess, to some degree that is because I started using Linux as my main desktop close to five years ago, but also because I am aware that profound social changes take time.
I think the key to the desktop is preloaded machines by big-vendor being available at retail stores. Only when the vendors have a stake in the success of Linux will they make sure that the peripherals state on the box that "it runs on Linux".
Pragmatism as an ideology is not particularly pragmatic in the long term. Keep it in mind when you dismiss Free Software
There seems to be a lot of different interpretations of Linus' views of the future of Linux floating around. There was a recent post on /. entitled "Linus says 2004 is the year of the Linux Desktop" or something like that. That seems to be a bit of a conflict with this article.
Can someone clarify his view for me? I don't follow Linux very closely, but am genuinely curious what Linus' real thoughts on the future of Linux for the desktop are.
Having a bookmark to Google does not make you an expert on everything.
I've never seen a lawsuit up this close and personal before
This is what the "lucky" 300 must also be thinking. I don't think they will be spending their time writing an e-mail indexing program.
Linus is the only person I've ever heard of taking a lawsuit as an opportunity to write some new code. The world needs more Linuses!!!
...it's not organised in the commercial conference kind of sense. But that just means it's a lot more relaxed, the people just talk about technology, they don't try to sell stuff. And these days in the US it's unheard of, you can't make money with this kind of conference, so I go to the Australian one and I go to one in Canada (Ottowa Linux Symposium). So even Linus admits that the Linux "project" is moving away from its earlier, non-commercial roots. I wonder what effects the increasing commercialisation of Linux will have, through businesses like Red Hat trying to make a profit and so on. Hopefully it won't be all bad, but I'm worried that Linux will just turn into another Microsoft (obviously with open source, but still)...
The Welkin: Online Music Reviews
Lack of games. The odd FPS game crops up, but dual booting isnt an option for mot point and click users.
The interesting thing about his comments about desktop Linux are that he's making them at all. He used to have a position of "Linus is what it is, I don't care where it goes, it's just fun to watch." He's not doing that so much now that it appears to be actually getting the places people imagined it would go 5-10 years ago. To make a specific claim, even one as flexible as that, is out of character for him and shows that he's starting to become interested in seeing his work succeed commercially (other than in the areas he works on directly).
It's rare that you're presented with a knob whose only two positions are Make History and Flee Your Glorious Destiny.
That was "literally" a great interview. I spent, "literally", 5 minutes reading it. And "literally", I spent another 1 minute determining just "literally" how many times he used the word "literally" in the interview.
The number is, "literally", 7.
They call me the working man. I guess that's what I am.
Q: Do you think that's good, seeing Linux being used in little devices, Xboxes and all sorts of places it wasn't meant to be?
A: One of the must fun things was I bought my wife one of those electronic picture frames... I didn't even know it - I just decided I wanted to buy it because we'd just bought a better camera, and we had some good pictures of the kids. So I went out and bought it, and only when I was uploading my pictures, the night before Mother's Day, I was uploading them and looked at the technical specifications and found out it ran Linux!
That's much more fun than big machines.
At the end of the days users want something that works with their existing apps and documents. They don't care whats going on underneath as long as it works
Rus
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you spelled 'australians' wrong :P
(i'm canadian too eh)
www.necroticobsession.com
There are many definitions of "The Desktop"
For many, it doesn't necessarily mean anything to do with beginners, or home users, or kiddie-eyecandy.
Personally, i see it as being a strength on the desktop in a business sense, where an organisation like IBM or Telstra or NTT has 50,000 workers all needing a desktop computer to easily email, browse, collaborate with users, plan their day, type documents, organise stuff etc.
For those users, the whole setup and install thing is irrelevant, and that's the hardest part at the moment. When it comes to actually using say, a good KDE install set up by a company for its own users, Linux is ready for the desktop in the middle of last year.
I think with the lower end of Linus's statement (5 years), the use (and awareness) of Linux will become much more noticeable. I've noticed recently that the SCO lawsuit has made some waves in UK papers, where previously you'd be hard pushed to find a mention of Linux whenever a computer-related article is published (Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft!). Possibly something to do with the fact that the big name of IBM is involved, but surely this is a good thing - getting the Linux name actually recognised!
It's still amazing to see the puzzled look on people's faces when they ask what 'Red Hat Linux' is and when did Microsoft release it.....
Why are we all so focused on cloning something we all agree is awful? Almost everyone I know agrees that overall OS X is a better interface(of those that know both, those that know one don't count here). So why not clone the best instead of cloning the worst?
Seriously, the whole hiding the apps from the user thing ticks me off. I like the OS X solution better. You can have an optional start menu if you like, but make the apps as easy to add/remove as OS X and Be OS and NeXTstep. All GUI programs should be this way. None of this "Program Files" you're too stupid to look here, and don't mix the GUI apps into the same dir with the command line ones.
OK. I'm done. Do I need to don a fireproof suit?
You should use AdiumX on your Mac.
Well, yes and no. Two things to remember when considering how to get Windows users over to Linux:
1) most of them don't care what OS they're running
as long as it works
IP issues don't matter, freedom doesn't matter. What matters is things working, being straightforward, and being able to do what other users are doing. Computing is a social activity - people don't use them in isolation anymore. (Insert ironic geek social misfit comment here.) So falling down in any of these camps is enough to prevent people from switching.
2) Inertia is the most power force in the desktop
computer world.
Ordinary users Don't Like Change. If they take the time to relearn something, it has to be because it's so much better than what they have they can't live without it. That's a very rare condition. OSX is better than Windows, but not enough better that everyone is willing to abandon Windows. A few do, but inertia in computerland is a group effect, and as long as the group inertia is strong in one direction everyone goes that way. This is why Microsoft has a natural monopoly, much more so that telephones or power lines. Technology was able to find new ways to provide telephone service, and things like solar and wind power can generate power independant of power lines. But if people need to expend a lot of effort to learn a tool, THEY WILL NOT THROW AWAY THAT EFFORT. The software market, particularly the OS market, must face this. Change can occur, but very, very slowly. Which leads us to our first two guiding principles:
Taking over the World - Rule #1
Patience is not a virtue - it is a necessity
Taking over the World - Rule #2
There will never be a "Year of the Desktop"
Media and fans like explosive, dramatic changes. But that is not how things happen on a large scale. This is more like a river cutting through rock. So don't build up Linux as "about to take over the world/desktop/White House/whatever" because it won't be so dramatic. Particularly in light of
Taking over the World - Rule #3
"Desktop Ready" is not a well defined target,
and as such "making it" is like chasing a
mirage.
Each person has their own definition of ready for the desktop. Linux met mine years ago, and it's doubtful Windows could meet mine now. But I don't worry about what most users worry about - consistent look and feel aren't an issue for me. So who defines "ready"? For me, ready was a while back. But I'm clearly a geek. For my Dad, it might be close. For my Mom, I doubt it's close. It's a fuzzy thing.
With SCO making as much trouble as humanly possible for Linux and open source, and Microsoft lurking in the background, I know it's hard to remember this last rule. But do try, because it's the only reason we got as far as we have, and it's the only reason we'll go anywhere in the future.
Taking over the World - Rule #4 (The important one)
Have fun!
"I object to doing things that computers can do." -- Olin Shivers, lispers.org
Don't kid yourself, a computer simple enough for granny to use will be useless to other people. Face it, the older generation got left out of the whole tech thing, and it's pointless catering to them or the other simpering idiots that find KDE or anything comparable 'difficult'.
/home directory each user has all to themselves is a big leap over Windows. And before the windows trolls flame me..wait I'm at zero, fuck it.
The REAL problem, which is too late to fix, is the dumbass desktop scheme. How many people find Folders, Files and other abstract concepts apply well to computing? All you end up with is a user left scratching his/her head, saying 'now where the fuck did I put that file'. Add to that the logical yet difficult unix system tree, and you've got a mess on your hands.
I will admit, however, that having a
What is missing is applications (especially games) and to a lesser extent drivers.
The 3d-modelling niche is a very good example on how fast Linux can take over a market when the apps are there.
In the next years, expect other niches to go to Linux, the next being non-US government desktops. When Munich migrates and ports their apps, it gets easier, cheaper and faster for other cities with similar application-needs to follow.
The only problem is that such migrations take a lot of time, that's why it is taking a decade (and it already started).
Which is what's endlessly hanging everybody up in the field of GUI design. They all want to be DIFFERENT from windows, but they fail to realize that windows isn't just decided upon by fiat, but instead is the result of endless focus groups and user surveys to determine exactly what grandma actually works most comfortably with! Microsoft has huge resources and can afford endless focus groups and user surveys to arrive at a smooth, intuitive GUI. We're not asking to emulate Microsoft, but instead emulate (or invent independently) a smooth user interface as defined by the users themselves. Which is apparently such a simple concept that nobody seems able to grok it.
Is it fascism yet?
When you have 50,000 users at all skill levels and none of them geeks, designing a Linux desktop that "just works" for everyone is a difficult problem and by no means solved.
First, with Microsoft EOL'ing support and bugfixes this year for NT4 and 98/SE, I see many users and organizations casting about for alternatives. IIR, about 25% of the Internet-connected users are still using 98/NT. With XP being expensive and probably requiring new HW as well, they will be forced to consider Something New(tm). This may mean looking at OS X - since they need new hardware anyway. Or, more likely, they may consider "trying" Linux on their current equipment - especially if they have a friend, or know someone, who can install in for them for cheap or free.
Second, and this ties in with the first, public schools and many businesses are really starting to feel the financial crunch of constant HW/Software/License upgrade. Many public schools (like ours) cannot lease equipment due to board policies against "incumbering subsequent administrations" (or some such nonsense) meaning that new equipment is cash out of pocket and old equipment, which can no longer be used/supported, is surplussed at a total loss. Businesses, as well, face the fact that upgrading older equipment in order to run the new OS from the Beast, simply to be able to have 10 more unused features added to Word, is stupid and wastefull.
When you sit back and think about it, for most schools and businesses, 95% of computer use is for what? Email, Internet access, basic word processing/spreadsheets/"powerpoint" and maybe some IM or connectivity to a "mainframe" for financials, records, etc. which generally means some sort of TN5250/whatever emulation. ALL of this can be done with Linux as the desktop - with the added bonus(?) of increased productivity due to end users not being as able to install Webshots, Kazaa, Trojan-loaderPro, or VirusOfTheHour 6.0. This means work can be done.
But there is still a huge hurdle. Most companies and schools don't necessarily have the technical know-how or confidence to roll out Linux on the desktop. I think this is a pretty big hurdle, but not a showstopper. First, I see a lot more advertising from big players ("no one ever got fired for recommending IBM") on prime-time TV for Linux. Second, I see that Sam's Club is selling a $300.00 Linux box with Linux pre-installed and (in our store) an entire row of monitors demoing it sitting next to the XP boxes selling for hundred$ more. This is bringing Linux into the conciousness of the public (although as geeks we seem wonder how anyone could have missed it for so long :-)
Let me speak from personal experience for a second. Last week we had an engineer from a software vendor show up to install an expensive, high-end HW/SW solution. Unfortunately, it runs on windows only, so we had to buy several Win2k3 Servers and have their engineer set it up for us (lot's of custom tweaks, lots of $$$). I asked him if there were any plans for porting it to Linux, especially considering that he recommended checking with their company first before applying any MS patches to these bexes as some of them have broken their software in the past (eek!). He turned and looked at me and said that over 80% of the places he's been to have asked the same question. So they've begun porting. It should be available next year sometime. Score one for the good guys.
Along those same lines, I took him around to some of our installations to test the new system on our workstations. Wanting to start with the possibility of having the greatest success, I sook him to one of our "newer" labs. His first comment was "You're using Dell GX110's still? Those are, like 4 years old!". I didn't bother to tell him that, as Systems Administrator, I'm still waiting for my GX110. In fact, we still have IBM 340 workstations deployed. Those are 6 or 7 years old.
We are facing a huge budget crunch. Because of this, we are being forced to do a close eval of possible ways to cut costs and squeeze the most out of our current investments. Af
"terrorism" and "pedophilia" are the root passwords to the Constitution
We're not asking to emulate Microsoft, but instead emulate (or invent independently) a smooth user interface as defined by the users themselves. Which is apparently such a simple concept that nobody seems able to grok it.
/. readers) to describe properly what they're seeing, and how it's something different from what they encountered last night, when they last checked their email.
It may not be as simple as all that. Yesterday I went to my aunt's house to help her, since her AOL wasn't working right, and the three printed pages of instructions that tech support gave her may as well have been written in Phoenician.
She showed me how the startup was normal, but the "pictures" on the desktop seemed bigger, and when she fired up AOL, the background (default clouds) went "psychedelic." I took ten seconds to go into display settings, up her resolution, and bump the colours up from 256.
The point is, a smooth user interface is not some point to be reached where we can sit back and say "yes, this is it." These concepts of resolution and palettes are so nebulous that it can be very difficult for "normal" people (i.e. not
I think I understand what you're getting at, and I agree that there needs to be an evolution towards better user interfaces, but I'm not sure that a one-size-fits-all smooth, intuitive GUI can even exist. Some people like KDE, and turn everything on. Some people go straight to Blackbox. I use KMail; others swear by Mutt.
Until we get to a point where programs can ask "Do you want more options or fewer? Do you want clicky stuff, or do you consider a pointer to be the method for switching between xterms?" we'll continue to muddle along trying to balance the needs of the people who want to "do email" and those who want 3D overlapping alpha-transparent Everything, with sound.
There really are no simple answers. There are certainly better options than others, but determining what constitutes the perfect GUI is a pipe dream, because all users are different, and there are too (damn) many of them (grumble grumble).
Haida Manga
My dad hasn't been able to use a computer effectively since we replaced our old Amstrad 1512 complete with command line and text-mode, key-combination operated word processor with a more modern PC with windows and mouse.
:/
:)
He could remember the keys to press, but for the icons and GUI he must refer to the picture instructions I printed out. That means changing his glasses every 10 seconds. Imagine taking longer to do your work on a top-of-the-range PC than on an ancient rust-bucket
But hey, he thinks clippy is fun!
If Linux desktops mimic Windows, then not only will *I* find it harder to work effectively, so will my dad - For me, the argument is over. Especially that for the last 5 years or so, tech-support to my dad has been provided over the phone.
Here is an idea for your local LUG.
Nothing to do on a weekend?
Head down to a mall and set up a user interface test. Call the mall first and ask if they will donate an area to the activity. Take machines down and set up tables.
Ask passers by to take a survey. Give them a task to complete. After they try it, have them fill out a survey about the experience. Collect the surveys on a website so open source developers can access the info.
Sound like a good idea?
I don't. The GUI design is at best inconsistant - they may be trying to play catch up now - but a lot of what is happening is based on behaviour that was thrown together years ago and can't / won't be fixed. I don't actually believe they test usability with their focus groups - they probably concentrate on what eye-candy looks best.
A perfect example of how non-user friendly Windows is the way your keyboard focus gets stolen. I touch type - I don't spend a lot of time looking at the screen - i end up get very, very irritated because some window/dialog has decided to open and steal the keyboard focus - at best, my keystrokes end up in a black hole, at worst - they're invoking some action that I don't want to do.
The Amiga got this right 15 years ago - the programmer guidelines stated that you don't steal focus - Microsoft would do well to re-think a lot of their GUI guidelines (or at least follow their existing ones - they tend not to do that for their own apps anyways).