Bad News for Earth's Magnetic Field
jabex writes "Scientific American's website has an article about the overdue magnetic field flip. According to research published in the journal Nature, it could take anywhere from 2000-10000 years to complete. That's a long time without a protective magnetic field."
Who needs the Earth's magnetic field, anyways? As long as I have my ozone layer, and my handy dandy lead codpiece, everything is going to be okay.
(Doesn't everybody have a lead codpiece?)
Just as long as Robert Sawyer isn't correct (and it's very unlikely that he would be, since it was just a novel, damnit) and human consciousness is tied to the magnetic field...
Theory and practice are the same in theory, but different in practice.
any mention of a certain bullshit hollywood production with the shittiest scientific basis for a film since the neverending story will result in death. of the poster. thanks for not getting yourselves killed.
I'm no geologist, but it seems strange to me that in the process of a magnetic field reversal the earth's magnetic field would just go away for a few thousand years. Wouldn't the field just rotate over time, so that the magnetic north pole continues to drift until it is near the geographic south pole?
I didn't see any mention of a loss of the Terrestrial Magnetic Field in the article, only a change of polarity. The two (polarity reversal, and field loss) an not necessarily equivalent, at least over long time scales.
"Oh drat these computers, they're so naughty and so complex, I could pinch them." --Marvin the Martian
I'm sure the Highlander will invent a shield to protect us when the time comes.
I can't find the article on google right now, but the last time i read about this in between the reversal of earths magnetic pole it turns into a quadrupole or higher order for a couple of hundreds of years then it finishes.
Still we won't lose our magnetic field unless our core solidifies, but a field reversal or a higher order magnetic field will allow different polorization of solar winds and other EM noise that would be different that what we have now. We also might not be as well protected against the solar flares during the sun's cycle.
Article has next to nothing to do with the blurb.. maybe the Slashdot "editors" should RTFA before posting.
How we know is more important than what we know.
Maybe all the particles from the sun that will hit us will cause mutations! Maybe that's what happened before.
I can see it now...
"Play hard, play tough. Nike lead lined athletic wear."
So our compasses would be screwy. Couldn't we use GPS to give direction?
-I am an elective eunuch.
"That's a long time without a protective magnetic field".
Actually, haven't you wondered how life existed during previous flips? We don't lose our protection....it's polarity shifts....
-psy
or one of its subsidiaries isn't doing this remotely?
...yet there are records stamped in lava of massive (in excess of a right-angle from the PoV of the region sampled) pole-swing which took place in 90 minutes or less.
Mercury has a reasonable magnetic field, yet shouldn't be large enough to still have much fluid inside. Mars has negligible magnetism, yet is many times larger than Mbeercury. Venus is in many ways comparable to Earth, yet no serious field. It can't be the retrograde spin, because Uranus spins on its side and has quite a strong field - laterally offset from the core and steeply angled. It is quite clear that our current ideas about planetary magnetism are at best whistling in the dark.
They have plenty of company. Our current ideas about cosmology are based on principles under which the GPS system would not work. To really drive the point home, the military people had to correct their initial GPS software after writing it according to cosmology and not to observation - they even had to be shown using a test satellite because they were so sure that the theory was right.
In this case, the broken bit of theory is that photons lose energy as they climb through a gravity field. They don't. The wavelength is altered by the emitter's position in a "gravity well", but does not change as the photon travels in or out of the well.
Naturaly, this completely invalidates everything currently based on expansion-redshift, a concept intimately tied into the same principle - which means bye-bye to big-bang cosmology. That's distressing for the status quo, but a good thing for science because we now have an opportunity to shrug off the dud theory and find something which better fits observation.
Happily, there are several steady-state-ish concepts being bruited about which continue to match the observed data at least as well as any big-bang-ish theories while managing to avoid conflict with this particular observation.
My current favourite is one which features a changing ZPE, since this also neatly explains the "steps" observed in redshift (including midway through galaxies!). While this arrangement doesn't require galactocentrism up front (ie, the "steps" should appear to be the same when viewed from almost anywhere in the universe because the changes which produce them are, well, universal), it is buried in the fine print, in particular the part of the model which deals with the CBR (and matches it much more closely in general and in detail than any big-bang model I've seen). Some punters will argue that the redshift-stepping isn't really there, but I've not seen any of those arguments come close to surviving serious examination.
In case you've siezed on the wrong idea, I make no claim to deep understanding, I'm neither astronomer nor physicist, I know barely enough to clearly discern why big-bang is broken, but I do know enough to be sure that it is.
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
Goodbye Van Allan Belt, Hello Cosmic Rays . . .
The magnetic field flip, the super-volcano in Yellowstone, the San Andreas Fault, the demise of SCO. Have I missed anything? A Red Sox or Cubs World Series winner?
Slashdot: Failed Car Analogies. Amateur Lawyering. Anecdote Battles.
welcome our new cosmic ray overlords! (Well, for at least a couple thousand years)
--- You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad- Neal (not Cowboy) Boortz
Appart from the general off-topic nature of that rambling post, it shows a poor understanding of the data, unless someone has utterly failed to clue me in on some breaking developments in astronomy. (Possible, but my collegues like talking about their work too much for me to think that that's likely.)
You'd better show me a paper that suggest that gravitational redshift doesn't happen, because I have yet to hear of it. And since that'd be Nobel-quality work, showing that GR breaks down (where it should hold up), I'd be surprised if the research happened. In fact, I attended an entire comps on GPS. While GR was certainly discussed, since they need to take it into account for GPS to work, no corrections to that theory were mentioned. Seems sort of odd that the speaker would talk about GR without mentioning that it broke down.
And I have yet to see a steady-state model that matches the data very well at all. The whole "cosmic microwave background" thing is hard to get around. Since I just attended a lecture by a well-known cosmologist and he didn't say a word about the Big Bang being "broken", I will have to once again ask you to back up your rather grandiose assertions.
As for planetary magentic fields:
There are lots of ways that Mercury can have a fluid core, still. The most commonly argued one is to have more sulfur mixed in. This should lower the freezing point sufficiently to keep it molten still. It's also worth noting that Mercury has an unusually large core for its size. This might play in to things.
Mars lacks a global field (today) because it has almost certainly cooled off too far. (If we assume the same composition as the Earth, anyway.) This is supported by the lack of ongoing volcanism or tectonics, which also require a molten interior to proceed. However, in the past Mars *did* have a global field. This is quite consistent with the theory, since it would have been warmer inside.
As far as I know, no one has ever suggested that Venus's retrograde spin is the cause of the lack of a magnetic field. That's fairly silly, since the field doesn't know which "way" the planet is spinning anyway. (Magnetic field on other planets are can be found oriented both ways with respect to their planets' spins and we know that Earth's field has changed direction.) However, the astute person would have noticed that Venus does spin very, very slowly. This would generally lead to a small or non-existant field, since planet spin is thought to be tied in to the dynamo process. (There's a strong correlation between field strength and planet's angular momentum, for example.) Of course, Mercury only spins 3 times faster, but that's still something.
I'd also love to see your proported research showing field changes if 90 minutes or less. How in the heck do you DATE to that accuracy? You can't, unless you pretty much just watched it cool. (In which case, why didn't every compass on Earth notice the switch?)
No one is saying that we totally understand cosmology or magnetic dynamoes. But to suggest that we're "whistling in the dark" is to down-play the wonderful and careful work of far too many people to let you get away with saying that here. We might not have the details all down, but I'd say that we're doing alright on the theories.
Oh, relax. The Core was just a 1950's science-fiction movie with modern glitzy effects. Unobtanium! Sonic drills punching holes in the sides of mountains! Reversing the ship's polarity! If you had gone in accepting that it was a B movie, minus the men in rubber monster suits, you would have had a much better time.
Anyway, I'll go out on a limb here and recommend you skip The Day After Tomorrow , coming soon to a theater near you.
Without a magnetic field, we will have (comparatively) little protection against gamma rays from the sun. There are only 3 solutions to living on earth without a magnetic field:
1) Living above ground with SPF 10000 sunscreen being constatly applied
2) Living above ground with a Class 5 hairiness - like those seen on Steve Allen and CowboyNeal
3) Living below ground
Since I hate putting on sunscreen, option 1 is ruled out. Since I don't like Steve Allen, option 2 is also ruled out.
Thus leaving us with option 3. Underground living. It seems bearable. As long as CS is still playable under 30m of bedrock, I'm happy.
Frink: Nice try floyd, but you were designed for scrubbing, and scrubbing is what you shall do.
Earlier Slashdot story: Technology Spontaneously Combusts In Sicily
The fossil record shows that the Earth goes through periods of time where there is an incredible amount of speciazation - new critters pop into being very quickly. I've read other stuff that suggests that this is simply due to the die-offs: since there's a niche available, something moves to fill that niche.
Could this be a contributing factor or even a causative agent? The normally low error rate in genetic reproduction takes a big spike due to more particles getting through the Van Allen belts?
1. 2.
Think Copernicus. Tell me of any seriously revolutionary idea which you know was accepted with open arms by all.
Of course not. You wouldn't hear good things about Linux in any Microsoft-sponsored presentation either, and wouldn't expect to. If you don't expose yourself to anything but orthodox dogma, why would you expect to understand heresy?
arXiv censored one of the clearest presentations, but try, from the start, no less than "A. Einstein, Relativity: The Special and General Theory" in which he says "An atom absorbs or emits light of a frequency which is dependent on the potential of the gravitational field in which it is situated." Not on any delta-G it travels through. Was he right? If so, the heresy was always present, and the high priests of cosmology have simply failed to acknowledge it.
J. H. Taylor, in "Astronomical and Space Experiments To Test Relativity," in General Relativity and Gravitation (Cambridge Uni Press, 1987), compares atomic clock time with pulsar timing data and concludes "Here is direct proof, based on a clock some 15,000 light years from the solar system, that clocks on Earth run more slowly when the moon is full - because at this time of the month we are deeper in the gravitational potential of the sun!" Looks like he was on Albert's side.
Probably mostly because it doesn't break down at all. (-:
"Redshift" (frequency changes) produced by one's position in a gravity well is part and parcel of GR. Redshift produced by a change in gravitational potential isn't.
"I just attended a talk by a Newtonian physicist and he didn't say a word about physics being broken"? (-:
Consider the pennies-on-a-balloon model of cosmology. Why should the balloon stretch and the pennies not? Is that not a special pleading unsupported by any verification or experimentation? Why should space strecth on a large scale and not on a small? Shouldn't such an effect be visible in the outer galaxies of a cluster? Or vary in the space surrounding a cluster? That's not science, that's dogma.
It also utterly fails to deal with stepped redshifts, as evidenced by visual observation of large samples of galaxies, and of Gamma Ray Bursters. Nor does it cope with the "excessive" brightness of distant galaxies, nor with closely associated galaxies featuring differing redshifts. And this is but the beginning of its troubles.
Knock out the "special pleading" by allowing space to stretch more or less uniformly, and you wind up with a galaxyless, even starless universe from a big-bang start.
Steady-state-ish. I'm favouring a system which has achieved an essentially steady state, not one which always was steady.
In this case, one doesn't have to "get around" CBR at all, since it fits nicely as the redshifted remnant of a cosmic "flame front" of galaxies and/or stars. The observed CBR variations fit nicely as well. On top of that, it also solves the "dark night sky" issue far more neatly than does entrenched cosmology, and a big long laundry list of other conundra.
[this is too long now, planets coming in a second reply]
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
2000 years, 10000 years, its all the same thing. Its just another day at the park.
This had me giggling. (-:
OK... so if Mercury spins 3x faster, it should have roughly 3x, or 3^2x the field depending on how your dynamo works? It's about 0.7% of Earth's field, and Venus' is less than 0.06%, which doesn't work either multiplied or by multiplied by the square, particularly with mass factored in. But it still spins roughly 90x slower than Mars... which has a field only twice as strong as Venus'. Venus has not cooled as much as Mars, but OTOH Mercury's core has to have cooled much more than Mars'. And for all of Jupiter's spectacle, a magnetic field only 8x stronger than Earth's is pretty disappointing, given all of that mass and spin, and that cold compressed H2 is metallic. Is this all producing as little rhymne or reason for you as it is for me?
MESSENGER will be fun, when it starts telling us stuff.
<aside> Mars has patches of magnetised rock, but no serious field today. This is said to imply a strong field in the past, but maybe not.
One of the few forces which explain nearly all of the features of Valles Marineris is lightning (pardon the kind of bolt which could leave a scar 3000km long! - but water, sand and tectonics don't explain much) which would imply (there's that word again) an essentially singular event and also explain a lot of loose rock scattered around on the surface of Mars. Such an event would be big enough to magnetise mucho rock, and/or disrupt an existing magnetic field. Until we can explain VM, we might be struggling to explain a few other features of our solar system as well. </aside>
As for Uranus and Neptune, I'm not sure I'd actually describe a 60% tilt (plus lateral offset) as "aligned" in the conventional sense of the word... and right next door gyrates Saturn, with the magnetic axis apparently perfectly aligned with the spin axis.
How you'd set about reconciling a dynamo theory with the lesser gas giants is beyond me. John, if you do try to explain it (as many great men have tried to do in the past) please give me time to sell tickets. (-:
[field changes next]
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
You don't. See, for example:
These guys were getting firm evidence of up to 8 degrees per day, but there are more reports to read if you want them.
You're right to be surprised, though, 'coz Nature ran an article on later (1995) reports entitled "The principle of least astonishment" (316:230-234).
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
He forgets, of course, that as well as being magnetic, it's also heavy and enough of it to influence the magnetic field would produce an effect not unlike your car's harmonic balancer disintegrating.
I don't know whether people sited opposite these deposits would have much time to enjoy the lowered apparent gravity before Earth set about becoming an extremely large and dense set of rings around the Moon.
Yeah? Which part of the Moon did you have in mind? Poles? Maria? Farside? And how did you set about dating the craters? You used a number of WAGs, I'll bet. (-:
Did you? Why? Serious question. I'm interested in seen how straight an answer you'll give.
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
I'm intrigued. If animals can tell exactly where they are by sensing the magnetic field's "texture" [http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/animals.htm l], shouldn't GPS make use of that too? It seems to me that such technology would be a lot cheaper than sending sattelites to the orbit.
I suppose that, being SlashDot, it's a point that constantly needs to be made.
Done. Now go and see how it works in real life. You're speaking to a bloke with four qualified scientists that he knows of in his family tree, and several more as friends.
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
So says the man who has not read a word of the two references cited in the GP?
Go back and read them, then try again. Meanwhile...
As long as:
- It wasn't too terrifyingly different (ie, not too different from our current worldview - or to put it differently, it has to be modestly "revolutationary and new");
- we thought we had a plausible answer to quench it with, or at least weren't more than a hairsbreadth away from figuring it out ourselves;
- we don't have to rework too much existing theory if we accept it
Without those qualifiers, your assertion is codswallop.Pity it's still under heavy dispute then, isn't it? (-:
You might also want to think about a couple of decades in terms of "quickly accepted" and the difference between acceptance of a theory de novo when contrasted with the acceptance of a theory which has already been abuilding for years.
Maybe it's just me, but I rate the functionality of an idea far more highly than its peer acceptance rate.
I call bullshit. That's how you get fired, or at least get a black mark on your research record which cripples your career.
The "heroes" adopt incremental improvements ahead of the pack. The vast majority of true pioneers, willing to avidly and openly explore genuinely revolutionary ideas, get pilloried for years, sometimes decades, and many die scorned only to have people come around to an understanding of what they were doing long after they're safely buried.
J Harlan Bretz, for example, was sidelined and scorned for forty years before his ideas were even investigated, and for the justification of hearing one of the investigators who was finally cajoled into actually taking a trip out to look at the Washington badlands for an actual look at the rocks exclaim "how could we have been so blind?"
His sin? Heresy. His theories, which are now mainstream and shatteringly obvious in hindsight, challenged the dominant orthodoxy in geology. They sailed too politically close to ideologically sensitive areas, to "political" boundaries which have absolutely nothing to do with science and everything to do with philosophical prejudice, and which still exist.
It's a brave and stubborn scientist who candidly investigates truly novel theories.
Now get off your ass and read, boy!
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
Neither is my car's alternator. But linear should be in the ballpark, and it's an order of magnitude off. And you haven't even spoken to my observations about the variety of compositions, temperatures and spins, and in particular to the complete absence of systematism amongst them.
Cloud-to-ground lightning, I agree. (And by the way, Konqueror spellchecks within web forms starting from the version which comes with KDE 3.2, hint, hint). But how about body-to-body? What's the charge on a comet? What's the charge on a planetisimal the size of Pluto, and how many of them have wandered in past Mars so far? Something for the asteroid defense guys to consider. An event to watch from the comfort of something like Hubble, rather than on the ground.
No worries. Remember that you asked for this, and that sacred cows make the tastiest barbeque. (-:
A bunch of the carving in the Canyon was done in perhaps a week or few with [RB Scarborough, Cenozoic Erosion & Sedimentation in Arizona, Arizona Bureau of Geology and Mineral Technology, 16 Nov 1984] a single or few rushes of water from a "fossil" lake or lakes with several times the size of Lake Missoula - of which mighty Lake Powell is a mere shadow and the beaches above it silent witnesses - in the Colorado Plateau area, which is possibly also responsible for the severely flat peneplane above it, and was followed up by a series of large flows (one pegged at "up to 15 million cfs"), which did a lot of the "slotting" which we observe today. The sudden removal of so much material (plus the water) may even have triggered uplifting in the area.
Slow and steady won't do it, and we've collectively known that for a long time [ED McKee, RF Wilson, WJ Breed, and CS Breed, "Evolution of the Colorado River in Arizona," Museum of Northern Arizona Bulletin 44 (1967), 1-67] and it's caused a fair bit of headscratching since [RJ Rice, "The Canyon Conundrum," Geographical Magazine 55, 1983, pg 291]. The Havasupai Indians even have a legend about it, although where they got it from is still an open question.
Have a look at the floods at Milford Lake, Coralville Lake, Burlingame Canyon, Providence Canyon and Tuttle Creek Reservoir [Archer, AW, J Kinser, SC Grant, JR Underwood, PC Twiss, RR West, KB Miller. 1993. Geology of the recently formed Grand Canyon of Manhattan. Department of Geology, Kansas State University, Manhattan] for much smaller but contemporary (and so better documented) examples of similar erosion. The prehistoric flooding of the Altay Mountains was also pretty spectacular, requiring water up to 1900m deep to produce the observed landforms [Baker, VR, G Benito, and AN Rudoy. 1993. Paleohydrology of late Pleistocene superflooding, Altay Mountains, Siberia. Science 259:348-350].
A thing to remember in connection with the origin of this discussion on Mars is that there's a good deal more obvious water available on Earth to do these things with, and none no Mars, nor an atmosphere which would support it, and there hasn't been for a very long time.
There are marine fossils right up near the top of Everest, a big hint that the many-miles-up peaks were once on a sea floor - or at least had sea floor dumped on them before they hardened - and haven't been subducted in between times.
Why?
Have a careful look at VM. Flat bottom, steep sides, side-canyons crossi
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
Good evidence. It's been challenged, as you might expect, and reviewed and checked by the authors themselves in anticipation of this, and re-done in several different ways and the answers always come up smiling. Peer review has pounded on it, hard, and failed to break it.
My turn to come off at a corner, I guess.
I present evidence, and the segue from that is that I'm either jerking your chain or a nutcase? Has the phrase "impossible to please" ever been used in your presence? What happens when I send you forty impeccable references, you call the cops? (-:
It does look like you're running out of depth, and know it, and are looking for an exit line. Well, good luck sitting on your conscience...
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
I wouldn't let blow-torch-wielding children loose in my lab, but I'd certainly let them separate charge by rubbing their heads with balloons. Or let them pet my cat.
"I'm so moist I'm sticking to the leather." -Kermit the Frog on The Late Late Show
Great! I need help with my tan...
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
Pedantic maybe.
This issue has been around for years and there is little evidence to say that the issue is a "bad" one.
You managed to stay on topic for only 20% of your rant. Sticking with magnetic fields for the moment.... Another poster has already pointed out quite reasonable explanations for the magnetic fields of the terrestrial planets. "It is quite clear that our current ideas about planetary magnetism are at best whistling in the dark" because we don't know enough about the interiors of the planets, not because of fundamental flaws in physics theories as you seem to imply. A recent model has explained the complex fields of Neptune and Uranus, relying on a thin convective region over a nonconvective fluid. It would thus be quite difficult to compare Venus and Uranus, as their internal structures are radically different.
"I'm so moist I'm sticking to the leather." -Kermit the Frog on The Late Late Show
That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. I'm not certain why you'd need a gigantinormous lightning bolt to explain loose rock on the surface of a planet which bears the scars of millions of impacts. And since planetary surfaces tend to act as equipotential surfaces, what sort of bizarro explanation do you have for a lightning bolt that travels horizontally for 4000 km? You claim that "water, sand and tectonics don't explain much" without one shred of evidence. Here's what the USGS has to say about the formation of the Valles Marineris:
"[F]irst the surface collapsed into a few deep depressions that later became filled with layered material, perhaps as lake deposits. Then graben-forming faults cut across some of the older troughs thus widening existing troughs, breaching barriers between troughs, and forming additional ones. At that time the interior deposits were locally bent and tilted, and perhaps water, if still present, spilled out and flowed toward the outflow channels. Huge landslides fell into the voids created by the new grabens. Wind-drifted material, mostly dark in color, apparently still moves along the canyon floor and locally forms conspicuous dunes."
I don't think this theory relies on tectonics per se. The surface collapse was merely due to the enormous weight of the nearby and recently extruded Tharsis bulge. But in the strange world of leonbrooks, the theory that requires the largest rewrite of physics is always the correct one.
Your ideas about the magnetic fields of planets are almost as wacko. Ignoring the fact that each planet's chemistry, structure, rotation, and history are unique and that dynamo theories are highly nonlinear, you insist that the noted variation in them can't be explained by dynamo theories and give no evidence.
How you'd set about reconciling a dynamo theory with the lesser gas giants is beyond me. John, if you do try to explain it (as many great men have tried to do in the past) please give me time to sell tickets.
Too late. Its already been done. Perhaps if you weren't wasting your time vainly trying to debunk all mainstream science, you'd have noticed.....
"I'm so moist I'm sticking to the leather." -Kermit the Frog on The Late Late Show
One thing about Venus: I've never heard it say that retrograde spin is related to a lack of a magnetic field, but I have seen a simmilar suggestion: That it's unusually slow spin (243 days - although it's "day" is only 116 because it actually orbits faster than it rotates) doesn't stir up enough motion in its liquid core (if it has one, doesn't say anything on the page where I got the rotational speed) to produce a magnetic field.
...if what you say about rotation and cooling is true and relevant, it should also apply to Mercury - and doesn't. True, I believe - relevant, less so.
The gas giant "reconciliation" is just a guess, not tested, not known to be workable. Considerably less definite than the actual measurements.
When I talk about lightning, I don't have atmospheric storms in mind. They don't have the energy density to do much, and it's not as if Mars has an atmosphere to brag about anyway.
However, if the discharge came from a near-miss by a highly charged comet or KBO or even planet, the scar would look pretty much as it does, random gougey bits starting in the west, picking up to a single (pair of) stream as enough debris flies up to provide really good conduction, a big splatch in the middle at closest approach where the discharge "sticks" at the shortest distance between two points, then more trench tailing off to the ever shallower random isletty-looking stuff to the east.
As to the always-forms-glass idea, I call bullshit. (-:
More examples? here (check out some of the secondary damage and think about what a few thousand cubic km of Mars rock would do under suitably scaled-up circumstances) here and many other places. Google is your friend.
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
The article neglects to explain how this is the fault of the Bush administration.
I'm using our Star Wars technology from the future to send this message back to your time. Don't worry, we're having no trouble at all working on the problems arising from the pole-shift. It's just that the radiation tends to interfere with our satellite communiASFE#%532gag#$S4 [NO CARRIER]