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"Slow" Earthquakes May Help Predict Major Quakes
Iphtashu Fitz writes "Think all earthquakes last only seconds or minutes? Think again! Scientists at the University of Washington are measuring a "slow" earthquake some 12 to 25 miles underground that could last as long as a month. Along with the UW scientists, seismologists at the Geological Survey of Canada and Central Washington University have documented at least nine previous so-called slow earthquakes going back to 1992. They seem to occur every 14 months or so, the last one occuring in February and March of last year. These earthquakes, also known as slow-slip earthqakes, can release as much energy as a magnitude 6.8 earthquake but because it's released over such a long period of time nobody on the surface even notices it. One key question the scientists are trying to answer is whether these slow earthquakes add to or relieve stress in the tectonic plates, which could ultimately help to predict major earthqakes."
These earthquakes, also known as slow-slip earthqakes, can release as much energy as a magnitude 6.8
Does this not imply stress is being released?
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From the Science Daily article..."Making that determination will help in understanding whether they are adding to or relieving stress in the Cascadia subduction zone off the Washington and B.C. coast, where the Juan de Fuca plate dives beneath the North American plate. The subduction zone is capable of generating great earthquakes, and scientists recently determined that a Cascadia earthquake in 1700 measured about 9.0 in magnitude."
And Wired... "The coastal region of northwest Washington state and southeast British Columbia is prone to earthquakes, and scientist warn the area gets hit with a devastating shake of magnitude 9 about every 500 years."
Sure.. we're only 196 years off the 500 year mark since the last 9.0, but for it only to pop up a few years ago makes it seem very ominous.
This data, while very interesting, could still go 2 ways. It is helping to alleviate and prevent major earthquakes in that area, or it's a major precurosr to a huge event that could happen in the near future. The hard part? What is considered teh near future... tomorrow? 5 years? 10 years? Guess we'll have to wait and see.
What's even more interesting is that I have yet to see any reports about this coming from any of the California plates, perhaps it hasn't been found or tested for or it's just not there.. Who knows.
Hmmm.
...to hear whether piezoelectricity can be used to detect quakes as well. With all of the smashing and crashing going on, one would think it would have the potential to generate radio waves such that a properly tuned instrument could receive|detect the signal.
is it possible to extract any energy from these massive events ? or are they too un-reliable and too much energy would be required to make harnessing it woth while ?
AJS
ever mentions the fault line that runs along the Mississippi river? Didn't a major quake in the recent past cause the river to run backwards?
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Can someone explain to me the difference in a 'slow earthquake' and just general plate movement? Cause from I just read, I couldn't differentiate between the two.
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We contribute to the UoW by maintaining the Eastern Washington Seismic Monitoring Network.
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Wouldn't it do both. I.e. relieve stress in the spot that slipped, and add to stress in the spots where the plates are still binding?
I'm moving.
"I'm just here to regulate funkiness."
Still, as far as I have seen the worst to hit North America since europeans settled here struck in a series between 1811 and 1812 near New Madrid, Missouri, one of which reportedly run church bells as far away as Washington DC.
Some day the big one will hit and all the land east of the San Andreas Fault will slide off into the Atlantic Ocean
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Interview with a USGS official on "slow" quakes back in 1992. Click here!
Hmmm.
One key question the scientists are trying to answer is whether these slow earthquakes add to or relieve stress in the tectonic plates, which could ultimately help to predict major earthqakes."
Knowing nothing about Earthquakes, naturally i have an opinion.
any time you have irregular shaped objects moving in oposite directions against each other you are going to have a transfer of "stres" from various points along the "fault line" so, while stress is removed from one location it is usually only getting transfered to somewhere else. point being the pressure (therefor the stress) which in reality is due to things like "gravity" is always going to be there, (at least lets hope it does)
The fact that the are now able to detect lower frequencies with more accurate tools, is however great news for anybody who wants to try and predict when things are going to get violent in terms of earthquakes.
Just some guesses:
A "slow" quake could release stress along a certain section of the plates, but build up pressure along another section further away - thus leading to a large quake along the second section.
A "slow" quake could ramp up to a large quake if the slippage reaches a point where the plates have less friction against each other.
The faults don't only shift when a major earthquake occurs. A "slow" quake may shift the two plates closer to a point that can only shift through a large quake.
Obviously, IANAS or IANAG - and as neither scientist nor geologist - these are mere guesses based on what I do know of earthquakes.
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I believe a research into predicting earthquakes should be encouraged and given more funding. I am saying this because of my own experience. About 3 years ago, my city and lot of cities around my state experienced a major quake reading 7.8 (Bhuj quake in India) that killed more than 30,000 people. I was sleeping when this happened and it was terrifying. Never in my dream I had imagined my city was in earthquake prone zone. Looking at the rumble and bodies gave me shivers. I believe if such a thing is developed so many lives could be saved (if not property). Also this might help in identifying earthquake zones (if I remeber correctly they classify them in zones based on likelihood of having an earthquake) and that can give an impetus to civil authorities to build earthquake proof houses minimising property damage as well. Just my thoughts.
I'm from Costa Rica, which has its share of earthquakes. Common wisdom states that the earthquake cycle comes around every 30 to 40 years, and the lasts about 10 years. During that time, a couple of >6.0 earthquakes are expected. This works like clockwork. In 1910, an earthquake levelled the city of Cartago. More high profile earthquakes happened in the 50's, then 30 years of silence, and then the new wave started around 1984 and continued into the early 90's. It now appears to have subsided. In 1991, I experienced the might of a 7.1 quake. I almost crapped my pants.
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...say to the other stress fracture during an earthquake?
"Hey, it's not my fault!"
... but this whole Teutonic Plate Movement thing sounds kinda scary and images of blonde hair and blue eyes spring to mind.
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One key question the scientists are trying to answer is whether these slow earthquakes add to or relieve stress in the tectonic plates
I am by no means a geologist, but I'd speculate that the slow earthquakes (maybe earthquakes in general?) add stress to some plates and relieve stress in others, somewhat similar to the law of conservation of mass in physical science. That energy has to go somewhere...
This seems counter-intuitive. However, it isn't that far-fetched. Imagine a laterally moving or strike-slip fault (the notorious San Andreas fault is an example). Obviously, motion of the plates on wither side of the fault releases energy. The thing to focus on is what is happening at the ends of the fault. There, the faults can get locked into other plates, and motion causes a build up of stress as motion of one plate is blocked by a stationary plate. Some geologists are concerned that this is happening at the southern end of the San Andreas fault in the San Gorgonio Pass area and at the northern end at the Mendocino Triple Junction.
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Why don't they just call their local psychic. There are even 1-800 numbers for that.
Evolution or ID?
Here and Here.
I was involved in planning for insurance company response to a quake on the New Madrid fault in the early 90's. Living in California, I'm used to quakes and have lived through some bad ones. A quake on the New Madrid fault would be a monumental disaster on many levels. First, as the writer above points out, the building is not to earthquake standards. Damage would be horrific. Places like Memphis would simple cease to exist.
Second, not only are codes inadequate, but the geology of the area contributes to the problem. The solid parent material (bedrock) allows propagation of the energy over a much wider area than in California. The historic New Madrid quakes cause church bells to ring in Boston. This coupled with the fact that many cities and towns are built on alluvial surface material that undergoes liquifaction during a quake means that once the energy reaches a remote area, it will still do a lot of damage.
Third, the extremely high market penetration of earthquake insurance in the commercial and homeowners insurance markets in the midwest means this would be a world-wide financial disaster far exceeding that of the 9/11/01 World Trade Center loss. Earthquake insurance in most midwest states is dirt cheap and has relatively low deductibles. Everybody has it. Here in California, it is expensive and has very high deductibles. Most people don't have it. If you do the math here, you are better off putting the money you would spend on premiums into mitigation efforts like foundation bolts, masonry reinforcements, etc. Our calculations in the 90's on the dollar loss from a repeat of the New Madrid quakes indicated that a Great Depression style financial collapse was not just possible, but likely.
This is seriously scary shit. The New Madrid Earthquake scare has passed, and not too many people in the midwest are doing any real earthquake planning. The next quake on the New Madrid fault will happen, we just don't know when.
Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
*also ducks*
You often hear these urban legends that animals start freaking out as if they have some precognition of impending earthquakes. Maybe they can some way detecting these "slow" quakes.
A story in the Fall 1990 WHOLE EARTH REVIEW #68, pp. 101-104, documents a 1984-1987 USGS study which showed a 70% correlation between radio signals on 200 Hz - 100 KHz. (the signals which BPL, if permitted by the FCC, will largely block).
Multiple citations are included to other research at the end of the article.
I think I will build one, even though when I bought my new home, it was built in Zone Green.
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I installed a system at the power plant in New Madrid around 1991. I went back to my hotel room where I had been watching the baseball game in San Francisco and found there had been a huge quake. So Peter Jennings has his expert on who says "Well Peter, the largest quake was actually in New Madrid Missouri!" So I turn and see this big "New Madrid" sign out my window... no wonder I hate business trips.
The locals told me about the quake: They said the fields rose in 30 foot waves as the soil liquified, the river flow changed and the old town was under water now, etc. Driving down the highway, it was pretty easy to picture that.
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Have you not heard of my enormous, genetically engineered Earthquake Relieving Gophers? My gophers will tunnel under the earth, lubricating fault zones with their specially designed gopher poop.
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Is anyone looking into Dr. Samantha Hill's theory from the movie "10.5", or are we not going to take it seriously because it was just a movie?
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If you're really after the earthquake stuff, just read 'Basin and Range' and 'Assembling California.' (two of the four books that make up 'Annals of the Former World').
In these books, McPhee travels I-80 with a geologist who's an expert in the area they're covering. Each book is about the geology, the geologist, and the road trip. Great read, and you'll end up learning something, whether you intend to or not.
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There is a big debate in Japan over this - should we encourage earthquake prediction or not?
I personally feel earthquake prediciton shouldn't be stressed in Japan. It really doesn't do much for us. As long as you live in this country, a big one is going to come, sooner or later.
It probably would save more lives if we would pour money into making buildings earthquake-resistant and raising awareness on how to reduce earthquake damage (for example, by anchoring large furniture).
I additionally have to add that most seismologists consider accurate earthquake prediction impossible.
Hmm Makes sense!!! This way we would fall into two categories: Regions in frequent earthquake zone and Regions that are not. This kind of research will help in latter. Besides this research will help in identifying and separating these regions and hence proper distribution of the "kind of research" would be attained. As for e.g. the research on earthquake resistant buildings would help Japan on the other hand research of predicting earthquakes will help cities which don't normally do receive earthquakes. That can be helped in evaluating cost of making a building too.
It's about time someone officially noticed "slow quakes".
I guess someone took their head out more than long enough to catch a breath...
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