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Phone As Your Next Computer?
Octagon Most writes "Newsweek magazine ponders if a mobile phone will be 'Your Next Computer' and enlists Frog Design to mock-up an 'Integrated Fusion Device'. With mobile phones selling at a rate of 650 million per year and climbing, there are already three times as many phones in use as personal computers. PalmOne's Jeff Hawkins predicts that devices like the Treo will become the new centers of our digital lives as millions of people own phones but not computers."
Seriously. Screen size? Input? Output? Assorted other sundry capabilities?
Phones will not replace computers as they currently stand unless our technology begins to approach near Star Trekian levels (which I'm not entirely ruling out, but won't be for a little while at least). Sure, *some* people might use phones instead of computers, but that's because if they used computers they wouldn't be using computers to their full capacity. They just need an addressbook and a few stupid games anyway, so let them have their PDA-phone. Me, I'll keep my computer.
With VoIP services making inroads, and broadband becoming much more popular, perhaps he should have been asking whether your computer will be your next phone.
that I have been interested in for some time. I have done a lot of reading on wearable interfaces etc, but the mobile phone seems to be a prime unintrusive platform for 24/7 computing. Some phones are coming along with cameras and the like, but it still seems a long way off. I still use text messaging to communicate via AIM on my phone. I think this has the potential to be come a reality with the miniaturization of hardware. Sony Ericsson seems to be leading the industry in putting more computing power into cell phones with Bluetooth, cameras and the like.
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"
I think that mobile phones could well become the "killer app" for Grid technology. By "outsourcing" processor intensive tasks to a powerful server owned by the phone company and then seamlessly integrating results returned by that server, each mobile phone could effectively be made just as powerful as a desktop machine (well, in a few years time, anyway).
Of course, you have obvious constraints like screen size, but if you coupled voice technology with the phone (audio being sent to server and processed there, over 3G or 4G link) then you could end up with something not too unlike a Star Trek computer!
USER: Hello Mr. Phone! Can you tell me what the weather is like in Las Vegas, please?
MR. PHONE: Yes! It will be 87 degrees and a little windy! By the way, you're running low on credit - want to top up?
A phone that works and it confortable to use, A computer that works and is comfortable to use. They do not/need not be the same device. A cell phone is too damn small to be very useful as a computer. Hell I think they're too damn small to be useful phones anymore. They get you by until you get somewhere with proper facilities.
Shop smart, Shop S-Mart.
So this kid spends an average of 1025 minutes a MONTH on his cell phone?
Why is that so weird? Think about it. You're being overwhelmed by a large number. First, divide 1025 by 60 to see that its 19 hours. There. Already that doesn't sound so bad. 19 hours a month. Divide by four. Round up. That's five hours a week.
NEWSFLASH! High school student talks on phone for five hours a week! Parents and community amazed! Film at 11!
C'mon. Most, if not all, of those minutes were probably used in the evenings, or on weekends, when they're unmetered anyway. Since when was this excessive phone usage for an eighteen year old? Just because its a celphone, not a regular cordless phone?
I mean, really.
You're special forces then? That's great! I just love your olympics!
My cell phone can barely be called a phone based upon it's service track and they want to make it my next PC?
While I sincerely doubt that phones will be the next PC, I do think that you'll see some merging between the various carry on devices. Imagine for a moment, something about the size of a standard Palm Pilot or PocketPC device. It's fully connected to the Internet via wireless, has a built in harddrive, and a pencil thin pull out "handset" that talks to the main unit via Bluetooth.
This device would let you check your email, store extra files (which can be synced via bluetooth), keeps track of your calendar and alerts, and would allow an exchange of business cards via wireless connections (IR or Bluetooth). When a phone call comes in, it will buzz until you remove the handset (fitted similar to a the stylus of a typical Palm) and press the accept button. Notes can be entered via handwriting recognition, or a virtual keyboard projected onto a surface.
Now you may not find this device tremendously useful. But it would be a God-send for people who carry a Cell Phone, PDA, BlackBerry, and Laptop.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Pardon me, as I'm sure I'll get modded as -1 Neo-Luddite, but I hate cellphones more than anything in the world. Although it is a bit of a contradiction that I carry one, it's only because I have to. I'm just sick of people spending more time choosing a different ringtone for every person they know than they do talking to those people.
I just think that that there's better things to do than think over new ways to be rude in public...like surfing the web on a 1x1 screen, taking lo-res pictures, or just trying to get attention
I've been using the Treo 600 for a few months now (I used the 180 before that). It *has* replaced a number of the functions that were previously provided by my desktop. I use it for email and a lot of web browsing (mostly news sites). I've started reading "e-books" on it (never did that on the desktop, actually), and it provides about 100% of my contact tracking and calendar functionality.
:)), but that's about the only thing I *have* to go back ot the pc for.
Just having a simple text editor with me at all times is huge. I've also got an ssh client running, so there's basically nothing I can't do in the area of remote admin.
It runs moria!
I've found that I'm in front of the computer significantly less now. I still use it for development (eclipse won't run on the treo
who's moderating the meta-moderators?
Once people can get broadband porn on their cellphones, then maybe!
No work will ever get done. Everyone will spend all day surfing for porn at work. How can they block it?
Just one more piece of undeniable proof that the internet is built on porn
Evolution or ID?
I'm having a hard enough time just finding a simple cell phone that doesn't have neon lights, cameras, built-in video games or vaccum cleaner attachments.
Just a damn phone, that's all i want.
do() || do_not();
Plus, talking to someone on messenger while you are in the park with beer and nice weather while they are in work is a lot of fun! Especially when you attach a photo to the jibeing. ;-)
Many things work better on a phone as well. Map websites are fine and dandy, but the chances are that when you are on a PC, you know where you are. Being able to whip out my phone and enter a street name to see the nearest stations/hosptials/pubs while on the move is great.
Other things like the integration can make life really easy. For example, on a received e-mail on my phone, the sender is a hyperlink. Click on it and it'll take you to their entry in the address book, where you can either IM/SMS them, e-mail them (to any one of their inevitable multiple addresses), send them a voice mail or even call them! (well, it is a phone after all). And with most phones now you can sync with a PC, meaning that if someone gives you contact details on the road, the next time you dock you get it uploaded and importantly backed-up on your PC. Lose the phone, you lose nothing, especially if you are pulling mail from an imap server.
Lets not kid ourselves here ... the "convenience-factor" is the issue that will tip the scales. The buying public really only cares if its going to make their lives easier.
My last job was managing a wireless retail store - and although I happen to drool over specs, most people think benefits, not features.
I and many others during the .com high predicted this was comming.
Why is IT viewed as a commidty? Where is the innovation and importance? Innovation in IT is alive and kicking, just on a smaller scale.
Mainframe lovers trashed the microcomputer or PC and even RMS viewed them as toys and focused gnu on "real"systems.
Funny how people still do this today with computers. I mean pc computers obviously.
The microprocessor gave rise to micro's and the internet/networking gave rise to cells.
But like high end servers and mainframes are still around the same is true with desktops. They are not going away. Rather the market will shift to them and keep them around for background stuff. On your desk you will probably have them for years and use your cell however for IM and some email.
I think their may be some hope for sun after all and problems for Microsoft. Java is going to be HOTT real soon. All the software companies will target phones and use the micro-edition of java or perl embedded.
Perhaps MS may be the next IBM, The former monopolist giant.
http://saveie6.com/
Is there a real reason for these types of devices? Why do I need a cell phone that mangages email addresses, takes pictures, surfs the web on a postage-stamp size screen, etc.etc.? How about making it so that my phone can work nearly everywhere first? It doesn't work at my house, I can't go *inside* any buildings like walmart and still recv a call. Maybe if it did its original function well, we wouldn't need 5000 other features.
I for one welcome our new [insert main topic] overlords.
It's a well-known quote, but it seems applicable:
I have always wished that my computer would be as easy to use as my telephone. My wish has come true. I no longer know how to use my telephone.
- Bjarne Stroustrup
Cell phones have a long way to go before they replace my computer, and reliability is only part of the problem. Handheld devices inherently require tradeoffs in usability.
The CPU speed race between Intel and AMD in recent years has been fueled tremendously by gaming. Once processor speeds caught up finally with the code bloat of business apps like MS Office, most business users really didn't *need* more speed. But PC games constantly push the hardware envelope, and as AMD provided faster chips and the gamer market bought them, Intel was forced to keep up.
While phones are definitely adapting more features and becoming more powerful, more people are using PCs and game consoles as the center of their home entertainment. Even without digital music, digital video manipulation and playback, and other uses for PCs, the PC gaming market is huge:
"Overall, 2003 U.S. sales of console games totaled USD 5.8 billion (186.4 million units) while computer games accounted for USD 1.2 billion (52.8 million units) in sales. Total game software sales in 2002 were USD 6.9 billion, with console games bringing in USD 5.5 billion in sales and computer games accounting for USD 1.4 billion. (Note: The numbers released by the ESA today do not include sales of game hardware or accessories.)"
The PC is continuing to evolve. I remember years ago when my dad told me he couldn't understand why he should buy a computer, aside from using it for accounting and occasional letter-writing. Now he uses it daily to run his business, communicate with other people, listen to music, find information, and so on.
A proliferation of other computing devices doesn't mean that the PC is going away any time soon.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
One of the main things driving mobile phone sales is, of course, fashion. Especially among the younger consumers.
And the problem with most of these crossover devices is that they are Huge.
I know a few people with these Nokias and these T-mobile-thingies, and they just look ridiculous.
Now look at Japan.
As soon as we have normal-sized phones that do all the e-communicating and surfing we normally use our computers for, without looking stupid, then we'll see them replace PDAs for most people.
This Like That - fun with words!
I can certainly see the phone becoming an uber device, eventually. The various PalmOS phones already are nearly there. A friend who is in anthropology was trying to figure out a data-entry solution for a few months while he was in Chiapas state. We discussed a few options (such as buying a cheap ThinkPad in the 133mhz Pentium range like the 760e), but what we eventually figured would be his best option was his Palm IIIxe with one of those collapsible keyboards.
The IIIxe is a complete computer in itself. It can do almost everything a bigger computer can do, functionally. It's only real limitations are speed and storage--you can do a whole lot of useful work with just a B/W text interface. Where the device might fall down (such as with photo editing), it can be enhanced by external server-based services.
For example, assume you store photos in your phone/PDA/camera. A processor capable of doing real photo-manipulation would be more than such a small device is capable of. So, when you get home, you plug your phoneto a USB keyboard and mouse, and to a big monitor. The phone talks wirelessly to your home server (or to a server on the wider Internet), and you run a local X server on the phone with the photo manipulation software running on the beefier server.
When you're done, the photos are synced back to the phone, all nicely edited.
It's things like this where the Free software community could really be forging ahead with new ideas and new ways of thinking. The old, traditional X, often thought of as bloated and outdated, is actually a great solution for situations just like this. This is a business opportunity just waiting for somebody to pick up the ball and run with it. Imagine real estate agents--they can access everything they need from a convenient device that can interface with various I/O devices that meet a relatively simple standard. Plug the phone into a cradle in their cars, and the agent's client can browse through photos and whatnot while they're driving around.
The business traveller only needs to bring his uber-phone, since the hotel he's staying at will have one of the stripped-down terminals available on demand.
Never mind all that, though--I'd rather re-implement Microsoft's Exchange protocol so I can strike back against the Evil Empire by installing a Linux server. Take that, Bill!
Potato chips are a by-yourself food.
You're not going to want to be restricted to the phone's display when you're typing, and you're not going to want a laptop's bulk when you're not working, and maybe the compromise of a handheld suits you or maybe it's just too big... but whetever you decide on, you have to stick with it, because that's where your "stuff" is. Like in the George Carlin skit, you can take part of the "stuff" out of the main place you keep your "stuff", and copy it to another device. Then you take part of that "stuff" and beam it to someone else...
But after a while what happens is that the "stuff" is the important thing.
What you really want isn't "a phone that's a computer", it's "a phone that lets you get at all your stuff", whether that stuff is music, contacts, ebooks, news, webpages, or what have you. The phone is a user interface device optimised for realtime audio communications. The handheld is a user interface device optimised for browsing small chunks of data. The iPod is a user interface device optimised for playing music, and so on.
They all carry little chunks of your "stuff" around.
What you really want isn't a "phone that's a computer" or a handheld or a laptop, what you want is a way to keep your stuff organised, and a way to get at your stuff from whatever device you're carrying, and then you don't care whether it's a phone today or a handheld or a laptop, you've got your stuff.
So what do you do? You could keep your "stuff" online, then everything becomes a terminal, but now you're tied to cellphone coverage... which probably works in Europe, but it doesn't work in places like the USA or Australia. You could keep your "stuff" in the smallest device, or the one with most space, but then that's the one you always have to keep with you.
Alternatively, you can keep the stuff in all your devices in sync, and hope you've got the right stuff when you need it.
How about building a thing to carry your stuff? One of those USB keychain drives would be about the right size. Give it bluetooth or wifi and a USB charge/sync interface for high-speed updates, and keep all your stuff in that. Have web-based interfaces as well as file-like interfaces and syncML and everything else.
That's where your stuff is.
Plug it in to a computer, that's now YOUR computer. Bring it near a blank bluetooth phone, now that's YOUR phone, and so on...
I don't think he missed the point at all... Europeans tend to have a much better grasp of work/life balance than we here in the US and choose to keep work and home life separated.
Speaking only for myself, I'm much happier now that my job no longer requires schlepping a laptop to and from work (and believe me, when a company issues a laptop to you, there IS an implicit expectation that you WILL work at home in addition to the time you put in in the office since they fill your daytime hours with useless meetings... but I digress). Thus, when I leave work, I am DONE until the next work day.
Work to live, don't live to work...