Slashdot Mirror
Analysts Predict Tough Christmas For Game Publishers
Thanks to Gamesindustry.biz for its article regarding predictions of a tough 2004 holiday season for all videogame publishers, as an analyst report from Banc of America Securities claims "competition in the games market will be much more intense than last year", and argues that "some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers, and initial shipments of titles will be very low, even by historical standards." The report goes on to highlight some non-specific specifics: "We have very low expectations for games of other developers with less-known brands... including Acclaim, Midway (except Mortal Kombat), Atari, Eidos, Vivendi (apart from Half-Life 2, if it is released) and even Microsoft (apart from Halo 2)... Expect many disasters this holiday." Is there really a reason for game creators to worry about what sales Santa will bring them?
Christmas will most likely by DVD season, not games season. Newly released box sets of SciFi TV shows will feature highly as well as "classic" movies like Office Space.
So why don't video game publishers try to capitalize on the summer months, when the market isn't flooded with competitors and people seem eager to spend money on entertainment?
E.g.: Blizzard publish Warcraft III on July 3rd, 2002 and WC3: TFT on July 1st, 2003, and each sold several million copies within weeks of their respective release date.
I think we're forgetting the real meaning of Christmas - The birth of Santa
It's crazy some of the titles that get released at Christmas. All the big boys (well, er... let's make that EA) release big, often licensed games for Christmas, with a huge amount of advertising.
I find it bizarre that publishers put out games like 'Metal Arms: Glitch in the system' at that time which while being a very good game, is hardly going to be able to compete with all the big-name licenses out there at the time.
You have to remember that many of the games that are bought around Christmas are bought for someone else. When Mum, Grandpa or Uncle Alf goes into a game store looking for something to buy little Jimmy, they're going to go for something safe with a brand they recognise. That means FIFA, James Bond, The Matrix, Star Wars, WWE, or something they've seen a lot on the TV.
Is it just me, or has anybody been noticing that everything's just been going bad for developers nowadays? I mean, it seems like every other day you go on Slashdot or Gamespot and there's an article about a development studio getting shutdown, or a publisher laying workers off, or a company's earnings report lower than last year, etc. People always talk about the video game being a growing industry, but all it seems to be is shrinking. This is very discouraging to somebody such as myself who is in the game development industry, because it feels like this industry is going to collapse any second.
I definitely got my money's worth from this title but I regretfully bought it for my early-60's father a few years ago. He still plays it 10-20 hours a week. Single player. Ugh. I remember having to go to his house and beat a (pre LOD) multishot Bremm Sparkfist for him because he was stuck on him for days. Good times..
link.
Flourescent (adj): smelling like ground wheat.
Doom 3 is scheduled for an August release, and this article pertains to the Christmas season. I know retailers are trying to start that earlier and earlier every year, but assuming Doom 3 comes out on time, I don't think its applicable to the discussion.
Besides, someone mentioned that the article talks about how publishers will have clashing titles. Doom 3 will probably clash with Half-Life 2, so again that would affect its ability to *guarantee* being a hit, at least as far as this discussion goes.
That said, I too expect Doom 3 to sell like gangbusters.
The only thing I hate more than hypocrites are people who hate hypocrites.
Don't forget about Christmas bonuses at that time. Around Christmas time, lots of people have instant disposible cash and lots of reasons to blow it FAST.
Of course some games will crash and burn. If the industry insists on fixed pricing, then it is inevitable that consumers will only buy the most publisised games, as this is the only criteria, other than biased reviews that they have. Whereas if some games were cheaper they could take that into consideration when buying.
If studios are worried, then they should cut the prices of their games. That way more will sell. Better than none selling at all.
May the Maths Be with you!
They need to sell/market games based on demographics.
For example, games aimed at younger kids should come out around christmas because thats peak season for them. (being that most of those games are bought by parents).
And games aimed at older kids/teenagers/young adults (who increasingly have part time jobs e.g. paper round, fast food or whatever as a source of money to spend on games) should be released at the times of the year when the target audience is most likely to have disposable income and/or free time.
Another thing to remember is that for younger kids, the parents (or grandparents etc) are more likely to be the ones making the decisions on what to buy. Although kids will ask for stuff, just because the kid asks for Gorefest Fighters 3005 Extra Special Extra Super Gore Violence Edition doesnt mean that they are going to get it (cue simpsons quote about episode with bart wanting Bonestorm and ending up with a golf game instead)
On the other hand, bigger kids/teanagers/young adults (and also adults) are going to be more liklely to be making their own decisions on what games to buy (especially if its their own money they are spending)
I do think that there is a market for smaller games (that dont have a huge name/licence attatched). However, that market disappears when the studio does the wrong thing and spends big $$$ on the production.
So why don't video game publishers try to capitalize on the summer months
Easy. Games are sold retail, and retail is Christmas. No matter how many dedicated gamers exist that would buy games in the summer, it can't compare to the legion of mothers and wives that walk into game stores at Christmas.
Moreover, because retail is Christmas, investors expect high fourth quarter earnings. Say you're Vivendi, and you release Game X in August. For the same, it sells well. Let's say 2 million units, hypothetically. Now, release the game game fourth quarter (xmas), and due to competition you only sell 1.5million.
You've made less money, and probably spent more in advertising to get it. But because investors pay far more attention to fourth quarter earnings than third, every dollar made during Christmas is technically worth more to the company than if that dollar had been made in summer.
Even Hollywood adheres to retail law. It's best season is probably summer, but when it has to go through a retail channel (DVD sales) the studios plan their most profitable releases for Christmas. If there's any deviation, it's only because the picture companies are more financially secure than the gaming companies.
GTA: San Andreas will be coming out in, what, late October early November?
Ooh, the poor publishers, I'm sure they'll hardly sell a single unit of it.
GCHQ Quantum Insert installed. If only our tongues were made of glass, how much more careful we would be when we speak
some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers,
Looks like there's opportunity for more retailers. Or a lumberjack could just go and build them more shelves...
Here's the true question: When will Border's bookstore start carrying video games? They already have videos...
But the greater question is: whay do those games not sell?
Ah, because people don't tire of them as quickly... They are too cheap to make real money for the amount of hours of entertainment they provide. Yet gamers won't spend more than 60 bux.
The solution for the gaming industry: go open source. Work with each other, instead of reinventing the wheel with every little detail. Provide game networks at low cost. It will eliminate piracy (nothing to pirate when the source is available), and you will make money on subscription.
On subscriptions: get together and form a payment association/company, and sell game time cards. Price them at $.25 per hour. That way, if I play 100 hours a month, I'll pay $25, but if I only play 10 (which honestly is all the time I can spare, you'll still get $2.50. Right now you're getting nothing from me, since the games are too expensive, and the memberships are too expensive. The last game I bought was Age of Kings in what, 2000?
Another piece of advice: make games that are cinematographically spectacular, yes, but more than that, make games with good gameplay.
"Piter, too, is dead."
The games industry needs to get alot better focus on their target audience and the way they spend their income on entertainment (Books, music, dvd's and games). It is simpel micro-economics. Only a small fraction of a monthly income is spent on entertainment in these areas and in my personal experience, if I have bought a book for 20 euros, I won't easily buy a new dvd or game of the same price. It is not that I am not tempted, but I just don't have the money.
The problem with newly released games is that they cost twice as much as a new book (take for instance Confusion Neal Stephenson) For me they go beyond my monthly entertainment allowance and I therefore have bought CSI in the bargain bin this month (only 7 euros) but certainly haven't bought a 50 euro game.
Even worse is that many new games are not as much fun as they appear to be. This is true for cd's, dvd's and books as well. However, the pain in buying the wrong thing is much lower because of the lower prices.
So all in all the games industry needs to make it worthwhile for me to buy a game at a whim, without considering the enormous price and without making me scared that I might have bought a lemon. In order to do this, prices have to come down. Way down to the same level of a good book, cd or dvd.
Use Adsense for Charity
Christmas is popular because sales double to triple. However, the number of titles released is an order of magnitude greater. *That* is the fundamental problem-- too many titles chasing too few dollars.