Slashdot Mirror
Gates Predicts DVD Obsolete In 10 Years
An anonymous reader writes "Not to say that Mr. Gates has been wrong before (sarcasm), but now he is claiming that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years. As this post claims, I would have to disagree with the world's richest man and say that compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents." (And since SMH is going registration only, thanks to the anonymous reader who points out two non-registration sites -- FlexBeta and Yahoo! -- to read the same wire story, and for the observation that not all of Gates' predictions pan out.)
I still don't have it... The first question I think you should ask yourself is "Is there demand for such a technology", if not, ask yourself the following question "Can I create demand for such a technology". If both questions can be answered with a "No", which I think is the case for video on demand, then trash the idea... Nobody seems to want video on demand, and nobody managed to create a market for it.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
DVDs will be as obselete as PlaystationOne games are now, in that the PS2 will still play the PS1 games, and you can still purchase a PS1 to play these games.
There will be new formats available, so I'm sure in 10 years time we'll all be watching HDVD, or some other similar but greatly enhanced format, but the players will still play DVDs (in the same way that DVD players today still play VideoCD).
The physical format won't change (210mm diameter, 21mm diameter hole, 2.1mm thick), but what can be held on a disk that size will change. DVD is 2 layers, but we have already seen that someone has managed to get 15 layers, and that was 2 years ago.
So, we will have something better, but we will still be able to use our DVDs for a long time yet.
T.
From this article:
Here the crystal ball clouded over due to a blue screen of death. Bill's predictions and his crystal balls can be a little inaccurate. He once said that there was no future in that little networking novelty called the Internet.
Yeah, and he also said we wouldn't need more than 640k but in this case I believe he is at least partially correct. It may not be in 10 years or less but scratchable media needs to go away. We need something that can handle a large amount of data and remain nearly indestructible.
I have probably screwed up 90% of my CD collection over the years. I now just keep most of the music that I really want to save as SHN's on my computer. At least that way I can recreate the CDs as necessary. While I take very good care of my DVD collection (burned or otherwise) I can still see problems occurring due to drops, accidental scratching, etc. I moved most of my music collection to CD in the late 90s and gave away my tape entire tape collection in 2002. What happens when that media goes south (and we have had how many stories predicting that it won't last forever)? I'm screwed basically.
Gates' idea, while nice for corporations that would control the media, wouldn't be so great for the consumers. The RIAA/MPAA would just LOVE to control and watch how many times you watch/listen to something and charge you accordingly. I don't think that the people would though. While he might be talking about a more local storage location I doubt it. Sad but true...
Let's try and develop nearly indestructible media and keep the storage local and out of corporation control. When he says the "TV" will be able to tell if we can watch the content or not I am fearful that he is less concerned with our children's virgin eyes and more concerned with whether our bank accounts can afford it.
640 DVDs ought to be good enough for anyone
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents.
That's not completely true. Higher quality will make another format more popular with users, and something that can't be copied easily will be popular with the MPAA. With DVD burners (even dual-layer and blu-ray) becoming available to the home user, DVDs are to easy to copy from the MPAA's view, and average consumers who don't burn dvd's and get told that a new format will look better on their new expensive HDTV will be tempted to switch over. I read a recent artical about a company that created a new video recording format that hold about 1GB/layer and can be layered 100 deep. It was some sort of "holographic" alternative that wrote the data onto what looked like a 1" square piece of glass. It even had it's own custom reader out that was rather small. Supposedly it's near impossible for a user to make a pirated copy of this movie, and something that small that can hold that much data would provide some incredible picture quality. Anything that can provide high image quality or is difficult to copy will catch on. Remember, the MPAA can shape the market, and if they like a new technology, they can put on the neccessary preasure to replace DVDs before their time. Of course such a move would motivate users to pirate movies online at the same scale they do music (which is becoming more possible with bigger HDs and highly available broadband). Well, in the end, nobody can predict the death of a technology, espeically somebody with a track record like Bill Gates.
Ok, I think I'm done now...
It will know what we want to watch
That's funny, usually I don't even know what I want to watch. If I feel like watching something, I like to flip open the DVD binder and start browsing.
DVDs/CDs won't go away until there is ubiquitous broadband, including in the mountains, in the car, out on a boat, and everyone has terabytes of crash-protected (RAID or whatever) storage (I don't want $8000 worth of movie purchases depending on a hard drive not crashing).
Heck, broadband isn't even available everywhere in major cities right now, contrary to what the pundits say, let alone in your car where the kids want to watch a movie. Sure there are a few mobile broadband pilots starting out, but how long will it be before Verizon/whoever can take 100,000 peole simultaneously streaming movies from their home server to the back seat of their minivans in the middle of the drive across Kansas, and do it for pennies an hour?
Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of IKEA, is the world's richest man.
I believe the actual quote is supposed to have been:
.exe file is less than that.
640K should be enough for anybody.
However, Bill Gates does deny that he ever said that, or that it was taken out of context.
At the time, 640K was enough. Today, people are amazed to see anything application whose
T.
I've had this argument with an ardent tech evalgelist before. He argued that DVD,CDs and HDD are ridiculous, not only because they can be damaged easily, but beacause they are essentially mechanical devices. 5 microseconds was too slow for him. Radial latency was too much of a hang.
He figured that in 10 years time we'll all be using flash memory based devices capable of holding Gigabytes of data, instead of mechanical media.
I argued that while flash memory type devices would emerge, you can already get 1-2GB USB memory sticks, the CD/DVD format would also increase apace. Although I'd have to say DVD is lagging behind, but probobly only because, unlike USB flash, it required better hardware to use the higher storage. Blu-Ray discs should give us 50GB of portable storage, and Rockstar at least expects them for the next format of console.
I figured that in 10 years time 50GB DVDs will be the norm and perhaps as much as 200GB DVDs will be readily available. While at the same time flash memory might only get up to 10GB at an afforadble price. That was another argument I had in favour of DVD. Price. DVDs can be as cheap as $2, but even a 128MB USB stick will cost $50.
We will always have portable, hard media,(read only?) storage, simply because it will always be bigger cheaper but still slower than the alternatives. Having movies on HDD is nice, but how can we bring them over to a friends or with us on holidays? It's nice to have something you can hold in your hand and say, that's mine, rather than something 'somewhere' on hard disc that might expire, or delete itself by tomorrow.
May the Maths Be with you!
people like Gates think users do not want control. He thinks we just want to "work" or "have fun".
It is the primary reason why Windows sucks too: its all good and well to abstract the machine from the user using eye-candy and whatnot. It is a stupendously Big Mistake to abstract the machine from the -admins-.
He reminds me of that IBM guy: all the world needs is 5 computers...
And its true, at that time, 5 * IBM-CPU was enough for all computational requirements of the time.
However, the PC revolution was so succesful, because people -want- control, not just "work" or "fun", people want -information-, especially the dangerous kind, so we can avoid -being- in danger.
Thats also why fire's, and car-wrecks fascinate us. We like to avoid becoming one, it is a good strategy to survive as a human.
"/Dread"
Frank Zappa said, "Communism will never work because people like to own stuff."
I think DRM for popular media like CDs, DVDs, etc. will eventually fail for the same reason: people like to own stuff.
nn
"It's a wonderful idea. But it doesn't work." -- Tad Danielewski
Its not really a question of DVD's. Of course DVD's will be obsolete but if you read the article he's actually claiming that the idea of local portable storage will be dead. That everything will be networked and centralised. He makes the point that why would we carry around some fragile copy of the data when we can just have it delivered across the network to whichever device requires it. This is the microsoft vision now, computers+network access in everything. It's an interesting idea but local portable media has so many uses that I doubt it will disappear. Especially given that it is so cheap to make that it is disposible. Already blank DVD prices are cheap enough to make DVD's disposable and Sony et al are talking about making discs out of cardboard.
Slashdot: where don knuth is an idiot because he cant grasp the awesome power of php
I read the article and it seemed to me the quotes of a man who has lost contact to reality.
Sure if I have a billion dollars in the bank can I have information whenever, where ever I want it. However, I am about a billion dollars short and as such have to stick to cheaper things. Namely DVD's on special or the Movie Channels.
Also what Mr Gates is forgetting YET AGAIN, is that I like to own my own data or movies.
I am also amazed at his prediction that TV's and computer's will know what I want to see. Especially since often I have no idea what I want to watch and make a habit of channel surfing.
An individual who has too much money and time on his hands....
"You can't make a race horse of a pig"
"No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
I'm sure Mr. Gates' point is that since high-bandwidth network connectivity will be ubiquitous, there will be no point in *any* physical media. I mean, in normal circumstances, you wouldn't even think of saving a web site to a disk to show it to someone on another computer with internet access. So, assuming that network storage is fast and 'net access pervasive in 10 years, isn't it reasonable to assume that people will choose the path of least resistance, and store their items in such a way that they can be accessed from anywhere? This is certainly an idea that people have been talking about forever, and that we are starting to see now.
For example:
http://del.icio.us/ is a site dedicated to storing bookmarks
and there is iDisk, and all sorts of photo sites.
I don't think the article says anything new, the author just tries to make it sound controversial.
---------------------
Freedom or Evil: Freevil.net
G. W. Bush says, "You decide!"
Of course, it makes perfect sense, they built a timer into all the DVD players that expires in about 10 years! The scary thing is i wouldnt put it past them to do that. He might not be too far off on this one. He could be talking about two things: DRM or internet storage. DVD used to be a locked down format, but thanks to some people who risked their own freedom to get us some, we have a pretty free format. Obviously this cant be allowed to continue so DVD must be retired and replaced with something more DRM'd.
On the other hand an hour ago I was about to get a big pack of CDRs and was thinking about a DVD burner and then it struck me, why not just by a new hard-drive? its not that much more expensive per GB, its more reliable (aslong as its not an IBM) and much faster especially considering you dont have to look for a disk. I used to burn lots of CDs just to carry work around, but these days i just store things online, CDs have replaced floppies but now they're starting to seem just as crap (with some going bad after just a year or two) DVDs are still not a perfect CD replacement because there are plenty of computers at uni's and work places etc that are stuck with CD drives and with fast internet access getting more popular i can just email myself files or leave my PC running and ftp to it from anywhere. We're going towards everything being networked and online, I havnt used a computer that wasnt on the net for some time now.
This comment does not represent the views or opinions of the user.
But this really has little to do with the topic, which is about DVDs becoming obsolete. Consider this: 802.11x in my area is nearly useless as a community service because there are so many trees and such high humidity. And we STILL have no cable and likely never will, and even if they put a dslam in the local phone box most of the "town" is still too far away to make use of it. But the FCC is plodding ahead with plans to usurp the vhf analog tv band and are talking very seriously about giving some of that bandwidth over to local wireless services. That means even out here in nowhereland wireless media distribution becomes practical. All we need are devices to make VOD as easy to sue as the present day tv remotes and most of the community will never worry about those oddball services like netflix (which will evolve their marketing to providing quality rather than just selection) - because everyone will have "on demand" braindead action movies and tv sitcoms and all the crap they have now. Granted it'll be compressed to hell but, given the zeal of directv viewers who insist their picture is "just as good as dvd," most don't seem to have a problem with that now.
I would say that, if the FCC moves ahead with providing more lower frequency bandwidth to "wireless broadband" then predictions of DVD obsolescence are pretty much spot-on. In ten years "DVDs" won't be "DVDs" anymore they'll probably be some god forsaken "Windows Media" formatted disc (aka "WMDs") and most of us will have available to our homes "VOD" of the (shit) quality now enjoyed by all those digital cable and directv subscribers.
With the DVD's copy protection / region monopoly features so thoroughly cracked, the makers are anxiously looking for a replacement.
The replacement may have the exact same physical characteristics but be incompatible with exiting DVD standards. Once something catches on there's no benefit to maintaining DVD as as standard (even a backwards compatible one).
I'd be suprised if it in fact takes 10 years for this to happen with as much consolidation as there has been among the media companies.
Since it has been done before, it can easily be done again.
Phase I - Introduce new technology. Market it as superior. Include DRM with better images, features, etc. This will be too expensive for most people. But it will be touted as the next thing you wish you could have.
Phase II - Cut prices. Offer deals with the new hardware. When CDs came out, you could often get deals for 6-10 CDs with purchase of a CD player. Taking that into account, CD players seemed reasonable.
Phase III - Force old media out of the market. No longer agree to buy back unsold media from retailers (except with the new format). Most retailers will not take the chance on unsold merchandise, and will start cutting back their catalog in the old format.
This is how CDs were brought to the market in such a short time and why LPs lost favor. Once that critical market mass is reached, the old technology will be obsolete (in retail). Video casettes are dead - not in the sense that you cannot find them anywhere - but in the sense that they are becoming much harder to find since retailers are dropping it as a format.
What the current self-styled video-on-demand suppliers are providing is a very limited choice of stuff to watch. That's not video-on-demand in my book. That's "we'll stream you shit we can make money off because it caters to the lowest common denominator".
Video stores and VHS/DVD rentals give you more "video-on-demand" than what's being offered up now.
With bittorrent, you can also make requests (there's a part of the "demand" in video-on-demand), or see what everyone else finds interesting. Plus you get to see stuff before the "video-on-demand" people can supply it.
Current "video-on-demand" services are a poor substitute for bittorrent and a fast net connection. Which would you rather have?
Now, there's a good idea for a slashdot poll:
My last IDE drive purchase was last month - 250GB IDE for $169 (CompUSA, instant rebate.) This is about $0.68 per GB, compared with a marginal cost of about $0.25 for DVD (4.6GB variety).
But look at my hard drive purchase history:ACG is the "Annual Compound Growth" in my sample - the rate at which the GB/$ is growing annually.
Assuming an annual growth of just 1.50 (50%) is maintained, in ten years $150 will buy a 10TB drive. That's over 1000 9GB DVDs.
I think that to assume ANY storage technology currently in use today will still be in use in 10 years is a bad assumption. My analysis is therefore flawed as well; for $150 we'll probably be able to buy 100TB of ultra-fast holographic or biomechanical memory in ten years.
In ten years, the only people buying IDE drives will be the Amiga enthusiasts.
The cure for cancer is coming: Reovirus
I have to agree the DVD will be replaced by something - because there is a technology that effectively replaces cheap media: other cheap media, that does more.
It's unlikely any DVRW/CDRW technology will ever be truly rewritable. But as USB thumb drives increase in size and Hard Drive sizes shrink to meet MP3 player and cell phone demand, they'll be fully rewritable, smaller media than DVDs or CDs - why use anything else?
In a few years the one advantage DVDs will have over hard drives and flash memory will be the complication of copying them, which is ideal for companies trying to sell their content. This advantage will be made obsolete by 2 things:
Larger optical media, which has been mentioned here several times already.
A more effective copy protection system that works over the Internet; this same copy protection system could be used just as well for the content on any physical media, leaving the physical complications of copying it negligible.
Bill is wishing for digital "On-Demand" video.
He's a scratcher.
You know the type.
You pick up a CD/DVD of theirs off of the stack on top of their TV and notice that every single damn disc has a scratch on it.
You put it in to play/listen - it starts to skip and they're like, "Oh weird, how'd that happen?"
The worst is the scratcher-friends who craftily ask to borrow your favorite CD/DVD. (Because all of theirs are unwatch/unlistenable)
So, you're all like "sure!"
You get it back after 2 months after bugging them for weeks about it and you open up the case to find . . . SCRATCHES ALL OVER THE DAMN DISC.
And you call them on it - and they say "What? I didn't put those there! It must've been like that when you gave it to me."
Even if you obsessively carefully handle your discs, put them away when you're done and never abentmind-edly store stacks of them on sandpaper.
THEY get offended?!
Do these people have no respect for personal property?
The secret, Bill, is to just put things away when you're done with them.
Either that, or someone will invent un-scratchable coatings, which I find far more likely in the next 10 years.