Slashdot Mirror
The Technology Hype Cycle
jira writes "What does it take for a new gadget to be succesfull on the market? Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future? BBC investigates the Techology Hype Cycle."
← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)
Just get a "review" posted on /.
A house divided against itself cannot stand.
The usefulness of a gadget is irrelavent as long as the public buys them. Some tennis shoes are still over $100, right?
I'm sure "SlashdotMedia" will improve on all the wonders that Dice Holdings blessed us all with
Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future?
'Which patents will prevent certain technology (and as a result promote others) and become part of everyday life in the future.
The hype cycle isn't just for electronics. Think about IPOs.
m &q=l&c=
Here's the referenced chart...
hype chart
Here's the yahoo 5 year IPO chart...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YHOO&t=5y&l=on&z=
Same pathway...
The is the pathway of ANYTHING new being introduced into the world. First, it's sexy and popular, then it's over done, and then it either levels off or dies.
it must be researched, developed, tested, and proven. Proven technology like MP3 could never have evolved if Fraunhofer wasn't so wise to invent and release the technology. From thereon, it went it's own way (more or less) and evolved into what MP3 is now : mainstream and accepted.
Before all those people leap into the "why does this work and why this not" they should start at the bottom: research and development. With those two magic words, we are likely to see a whole lot of hypes more. Without it, we can just wait on the next company that goes bankrupt because noone would buy it's proven, but old, products...
Slashdot: stuff for news, nerds that matter, matter for news, stuff that nerd
With the trends I would have guessed that the double beer hat would have been big.
I guess if I came up with some technobabble name for it and claimed that NASA had something to do with it's construction it'd sell big.
Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
1. Get a new technology that has not matured yet.
2. Apply it to a maturing retail area (see iTunes and the music market).
3. Packaging and usability is king if you want to get the mass audience (and no - slashdot readers are NOT the mass audience!)
4. Profit!
(5. Putting the little apple logo on it usually helps jump a few steps in the process...)
Get your free iPod![it really works! - my buddy got his after I signed up, I have just 2 more referrals to go...]
The "technology hype cycle" is fairly easy to shortcut if you have independent testers *use* the product instead of just releasing it to the market. For example, anyone who *used* the Audrey for any period of time could have told you that it would be a complete flop. It was underpowered, slow, and overall useless. OTOH, Apple made sure that people (especially Jobs himself) *used* the iPod before release. Changes were made based on that usage, and the product was better for it.
Of course, that's no guarantee of success. It's quite possible that the product will fail because people don't "get it". In that case you have to watch what your focus groups do. Do they sort of bumble with the thing, with no idea what they're doing? Would they actually keep using it if they weren't forced to? Do they make use of most of the features, or do they ignore them? Most of this can be found by quiet observation of the user with the device. Don't answer questions. Just let them figure it out.
If there's little that can be done about the complexity, then you're going to need a good advertising campaign. Manuals will help, but they only come *after* the purchase. It's much better to explain why they need the device before purchase so that they'll jump right in with the designed goals in mind.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Sometimes we call the grad students (and some undergrads) who hang around WAY too long the "furniture" because they last so long and they're such an integral part of everything. Could be like that.
...or not
...no two people are not on fire.
From the article:
"Something new would happen, there would be tremendous excitement, followed by disillusionment."
Sounds like the entire course of human history to me.
Weaselmancer
rediculous.
A gadget with 256 MB usb,bluetooth,wifi,a screw driver, a nail file [ geeks definitely need one ],
scissors,a GPS,LCD screen,mp3 player,cellphone and a pda...
did i miss something ?
fifteen jugglers, five believers
It also helps to have a foot in the door... companies that already have a good relationship with a big box store like Wal-Mart would be more likely to swing deals. For example, they could get priority placement in Wal-Mart stores by the cash as "impulse buy" items. Of course it depends on the type of product, but existing ties to industry make it difficult for the new guy to get into the game.
Why do you think the iPod is the most popular and well-known HD MP3 player around? Big advertising budget and good store placement. It may not be the best thing (I contest that my iRiver iHP-120 is far superior), but it's the "gadget to get" for people who don't care to look into how other items stack up.
I think what they mean is that the net is now utterly and completely commonplace. Ten years ago you could tell someone "I can chat with Norway!" and they wouldn't believe you, but now you say "I'm on the net!" and it's as exciting as saying "I own a couch!"
So, having a sofa isn't something special, and nor is being on the Internet. Owning an iPod is, thus the iPod is not part of the furniture.
I appear to have a blog. Odd.
Lots and lots of shiny pieces. Or smooth pieces. Shiny + smooth = success.
I think there's some truth to that. If Gadget A catches your eye and is aesthetically pleasing it will probably sell better than an uglier but more functional Gadget B.
Apple tends to blend form and functionality rather well.
"False hope is why we'll never run out of natural resources!" - Lewis Black
So while it's an interesting article I don't think they've accounted for everything or, more likely, they don't want to talk about the next step which is probably a slow (or fast) death for technology which is ursurped by the next new thing. Also while the idea seems to be this "Hype Cycle" can help predict the path of a technology the article itself throws cold water on that idea. They readily admit the iPod threw off all their predictions for the Mp3 player market (now called simple digital music players). The hype cycle seems more of a hindsight tool than a forward looking predictor.
Here, this might help:
Furniture Definition
Yes, people actually furnish themselves and their homes with an internet connection.
Once one understands what furniture actually means it is also easier to understand the metphorical phrase "become part of the furniture."
KFG
It goes something like this: some new technology starts to look like the next big thing. Journalists hype it to the moon since it gives them something "truly revolutionary" to talk about. As a result, expectations get all blown out of proportion.
Then when the technology inevitably fails to live up to the hype within some ridiculously short timeframe, they have yet another big story to promote: "Is XYZ a hopeless failure?". Two stories for the price of one!
The moral is not to believe what you read in the papers. Sure, there are plenty of revolutionary technologies emerging, but these things take much, much longer than the press would have us believe.
Peer Pressure
There was not an absolute iota of information in that article that I could make use of, or carry over with me. It smacks of absolute useless-ness, like a number of other articles
1. A graph with different tehnologies/device listed against the time it took for them to "mature", with funny names given to each trough and crest of popularity, does not make an insightful report.
2. There has been no mention of whose definiton of "product maturity" has been used. It is a term widely open for interpretation
3. It is hilarious to compare the effectiveness, acceptability and market penetration of such varied products as DVD players and PDAs, and so on. There are host of factors that come into play, least of which is the sense of an inane need within the target customer segment.
I bet that article concludes something. Though I certainly wish it was something more focused than a wannabe "we will have more power in our hands in the future"!
http://efil.blogspot.com/
Porn
/.ers got broadband or upgraded their modems in order to meet more women named .jpeg or her lovely sisters .mpeg? As far as that goes it's an often overlooked fact that porno movies go back to the beginning of film. The "hype circle" is just another way of saying "lookit that, no nipple pixels!" :-)
No, seriously, new technology is frequently propelled forward by its capacity for smut. Show of hands: How many
(And yes I realized how it's ironic to ask for a show of hands WRT porn. At least I didn't ask you to show both hands.)
Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
Not so. They existed, certainly, but well-entrenched? Not really. And only one had anything like enough storage to hold more than a single album (the Nomad, which I seem to remember was first). And even then, the ones that had capacity had nowhere near the correct form factor.
I know all of this, because I'd been trying to justify getting an MP3 player for month, but couldn't bring myself to do it because I knew that whilst technologically pretty, they were functionaly useless. Then the iPod came out and I knew immediately I wanted one. Could easily fit in a pocket, and could hold a ton of music? Yep - the first of the players to be truley functional. I only had a Windows PC at the time and there was no way for them to talk. I bought an original 5Gig iPod the same day XPlay hit beta.
Oh, and I've since gone to OS X too, returning to Apple after a gap of about seven years. It's up for debate how much of the iPod's quality acted as a trojan horse there.
Cheers,
Ian
And when some company comes out with the cell phone that doubles as an mp3 player (downloads songs as easily as ringtones), bye-bye iPod. Why carry two gadgets when one will do, and doesn't require a computer?
-- Boycott Shell
I agree. They just made the mp3 player more stylish and inproved the interface. This was important but they were certanly not the first company to make an mp3 player. In time the copycats will win the war by underpricing Apple.
Sometimes, according to Ms Behrens, a technology can be so hyped it may never meet expectations.
It seems like the Segway fits here. Vast hype, vast expectations, little impact two and a half years after introduction.
I got a good laugh out of this when I first saw it.
Apple Product Life Cycle
i am a soviet space shuttle
-5 months: You "discover" a technology at a conference that no one seems to have picked up on.
-2 months: You read about it in the newspaper 3 months later. The article is done by a guy whose speciality is discussing nothing but gadgets.
0 months: The technology appears in stores in limited quantities, geeks foam at the mouth trying to acquire it. The girlfriends of geeks shake their head wondering why they would need it.
2 weeks: The geeks who can't find it in stores buy it on ebay for 3x the store cost. No girlfriends to shake their head at these guys.
1 year: Regular people begin buying the product.
1.5 years: Mainstream newspapers report on the popularity of the product.
2 years: Your girlfriend buys the product.
2.5 years: Your mother finally hears about the product.
3 years: Families begin buying the product. The product is finally mainstream.
5 years: The product begins appearing between the shaving razors and chocolate bars at the check-out counter.
7 years: The product/technology finally peters out and your grandmother goes around telling people that she knew it was a fad from the start (1 year ago, from her perspective).
8 years: Slashdot reports on the product.
The iPod got about 40gb of music and about half an hour playtime. The phones got 32mb and about 2-3 hours playtime.
iPod market will never be replaced by the phone market. Same reason the real hifi component market is not replaced by the boom-box market. iPod buyers will always want the extra quality that a dedicated product can give them. A gadget that tries to do everything will always end up doing all of them less.
Two different markets.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
1991: "Don't call, send me an email."
1992: "$10 for a CD? What a deal!"
1993: "$3,000 for a 486? What a deal!"
1994: "Check out this webpage."
1995: "I'll be out, call my cell."
1996: "I bought it all online."
1997: "The number's in my PalmPilot. What? No, it's better than the Newton."
1998: "MP3s on napster.com? No problem, I've got a cablemodem now."
1999: "Y2K? Yeah, I've got my bunker stocked."
2000: "Yeah, I finally got a DVD player."
2001: "Check out my wireless network. Yeah, all the way to the patio."
2002: "It costs more but this LCD monitor is the shiznite!"
2003: (unemployed)
2004: "Would you like fries with that?"
Speak truth to power.
"Are all the other devices essentially slaves to the PC - which is the Microsoft vision - or do the functions become spread out to smart consumer devices through the home?
5 7&tid=133&tid=103
The article uses the word "slave" when referring to something dealing with technology. Attempting to read the article in California may result in you breaking county law in your locality. http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=03/11/25/00142
"After three days without programming, life becomes meaningless." - Tao of Programming
But hey it works. Companies delayed adopting OS/2 because MS promised that 95 was going to be so much better. People are delaying switching to Linux/BSD/OSX because MS promises longhorn will be so much better.
This is hardly unknown in business. Harly davidson made bikes so bad they didn't even work out of the factory. Car companies have for years created models that killed people and they are still around. Air travel is the most dangerous form of transport around (the claim that it is the safest is based on distance travelled, bit mean when you can spend an hour in a car and still be in the heart of amsterdam but an airbus will be two countries away) based on trips and yet most people think it is safe.
Surviving hype depends on how much we want the hype to be real. We want airtravel to be safe or else we wouldn't do it. It also depends on how we experience the disappointment. iPod buyers only experience it when they are in the shop and see products at half the price. Not often enough to force them to consider that the iPod is not worth the hype.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
The technology hype life cycle has essentially been pioneered by Microsoft.
1. Announce a technology "idea", that someone else pioneered, that's nowhere near complete in terms of development.
2. Develop it for months, maybe years, producing a lull in the market.
3. Finally release it, but in Beta.
4. Finally complete the beta, making the thing gold while it should still be nothing more than a beta.
5. Start "round 2" of producing a product that should still be in beta, and call it version 2.
6. Announce version 2, three months after you decide what the feature set will be, and start working on it.
7. continue the cycle.
"Love is like pi - natural, irrational, and very important." (Lisa Hoffman)
...'successful' correctly helps a lot.
Did he inhale?