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Hurricane Threatens Shuttle Program
evenprime writes "Hurricane Frances may end NASA's space shuttle program. John Logsdon, a member of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and the head of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., has said: 'If there were serious damage to one or two of the orbiters or the facilities needed to
process and launch the orbiters, I think it would raise a very large question about
the continuation of the shuttle program.'"
Dammit, dammit, dammit! Right now, Bush's ideas for a new space program are simply a pipe dream with some funding. If we lose our infrastructure for a manned space program, we may lose the space program all together! While I know of several people who would be happy about that, I wouldn't. Cutting off manned travel is short-sighted. Without manned travel, we're guaranteeing that the cost of sending probes will always be high. We're guaranteeing that we'll run out of raw materials in less than a century. We're guaranteeing that we will not have enough energy to sustain our civilization. And most importantly, we're guaranteeing that we will NEVER reach another star system.
Look up at the sky! You see that big ball of bright flame? That's a fusion reactor that generates at least 8e23 watts. That's enough power to send a five year Alpha Centauri mission every second. You know how you can do the same by staying on Earth? It's simple: YOU CAN'T. To those of you who think a manned space program is a waste of resources because exploration happens more effectively with robots: You are a selfish bastard planning your own demise.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Honestly I believe they have had ample time to prepare for hurricanes hitting the NASA facilities. It's not like it rests in hurricane-prone waters, no.
What idiot reporter came up with the idea for this story. Hasn't Cape Canaveral ALWAYS been in Florida. Hasn't Florida ALWAYS gotten hit by hurricanes. Hello McFly?
Shuttle program != Space program
Shuttle Program == Manned Space Program
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Just a little while ago an article about missing the broadband boat (which admittidly I did not read) and now the space shuttle. I realize that we have not cancelled our space program, but this is concerning to me.
We are losing our low paying jobs to other countries and supposedly replacing them with higher paying research/science positions. How can we do this with a government that is not committed to science (Shutting down a space program) and is not committed to infrastructure like broadband. If we give up on the low paying jobs don't we then need a strong commitment to the high paying jobs of the future?
I tried for 5 years to come up with a clever sig...only to realize that I am not clever.
Nothing like an overreaction to get folks upset...
"Hurricane Frances may end NASA's space shuttle program."
Please.
Even if the orbiters were damaged, or the launch platforms damaged, they can always be re-built, repaired, or whatever.
Even if it looks like the eye will hit KSC dead-on, they've still got enough time to stick an orbiter on the 747 and get one of them out of there...
Besides, the launch structures withstand regular beatings from the shuttle launches, and they've survived for years...
The VAB might take some damage, perhaps some of the other support buildings, but it's going to take more than a hurricane to destroy KSC & the shuttle program completely.
/sig
Absolutely right. The shuttle was built on a lie: that each shuttle could turn around a flight a month for less than the cost of a LEO unmanned disposable rocket. The contractors and NASA both knew the shuttle desiugn we got couldn't do any of that. And it's only got a 98% survivability rate. Which officially puts it in the "Sucks to be us" category of LEO space travel. It's time to get the government out of the shuttle business and, oh, I don't know, outsource it to the winner of the X Prize? I have a LOT more faith in Rutan and company doing a shuttle right than I do the government.
"Wow. Now THAT'S a lot of angry Indians." - Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer
I really doubt it... Do we pack up all operations in California every time there is an earthquake ? Hurricanes have been hitting the eastern seaboard and Florida for thousands of years - the Indians never left, the colonist never left, people still live in South Florida post Andrew, Nasa and CCAFS will still launch rockets from the cape after this hurricane. I live in Titusville right directly accross from the VAB and use to work at CCAFS and I can tell you that the facilites are very, VERY well constructed - the engineers who designed those buildings were thinking about hurricanes (and direct impacts from errant rockets).
They're really just hoping for an excuse for something they are already planning. I had a chance to chat with a fellow from the Johnson Space Center a few months back and he said they were planning on ending the Shuttle program "soon." He is of the opinion that as we now try to reach further than "just" orbit, we will need to return to single-use vehicles, at least for a while.
Hi,
NASA has been under budgeted, over managed, and terribly inefficient for decades. Having the government run space flight might have been a good idea during the cold war, when it was important to remind the world that everything the Russians can do we can do better. Today, it is not.
There are cheaper ways to get to LEO (Low Earth Orbit). There are private enterprises which try to get to space in a way that is economically viable. Economically viable means that you don't have to beg Congress for dollars and then use whatever contractors, locations, etc. you need to provide the right pork to the right congress-person. Instead, you can focus on doing what ought to be done.
What do we need manned flight to LEO for? It's close enough that we can remote control everything that a robot can do. Robots that are cheaper and more expendable. Let us send robots and find ways to use it to build a better mousetrap, and the world will beat a path to the skies.
Eventually, we'll need manned space flight to get to resources that are too distant for a remote controlled mission. But now is not the time. Now what we need is less public excitement and more investor excitement. Less spectacles and more value creation.
Just my 2c worth,
Ori
-- Support a free market in the field of government
This is why I've been saying for YEARS that what we really need is for private enterprise to be involved in the Space Program. Sure the shuttle would probably have to sport "Coca-cola" on a wing, but who CARES if it ends up looking like a NASCAR auto? The point is to keep the program going forward.
There is NO way a big corporate entity would EVER say "oh, uh, sorry, if the hurricane does damage we'll have to close down the company.
So when is the Hawkeye movie coming out?
to buy a decent Beowulf cluster to calculate and design whatever is needed for the space elevator.
Did this guy just wake up from a coma? The shuttle has been around since the early 80's. Hurricanes have been around, right, since well, as long as any human can remember. Why is this even news worthy? It's always been a risk, it will continue to be a risk.
Why don't they just move the orbiters to a safe location? It's not like the hurricane is speeding towards them?
Now the facilities, that is another story...
Essentially, the US is living beyond its means. Its deficit is unsustainable in the long term, as is the value of the US dollar. If China or Japan decides to pull the pin, your economy goes down the toilet for years to come.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
> Even if the orbiters were damaged, or the launch platforms damaged, they can always be re-built, repaired, or whatever.
...it's going to take more than a hurricane to destroy KSC & the shuttle program completely.
Sure, they can, but not without a huge expenditure that NASA really can't afford right now, especially when many politicians (and pundits, and some scientists) are already calling for the end to Human Spaceflight altogether.
> Even if it looks like the eye will hit KSC dead-on, they've still got enough time to stick an orbiter on the 747 and get one of them out of there...
It's looked like that for several days now, and they haven't done this. A good reason is that the shuttles are being retrofitted with safety improvements, and aren't really in a state to be put on a 747, let alone flown hundreds of miles away.
> Besides, the launch structures withstand regular beatings from the shuttle launches, and they've survived for years...
Sure, the launch structures, maybe. But the hangars that the Space Shuttles are housed in are only rated for a Category 3 hurricane. They might also survive a Category 4 or 5 Frances, but then again, they might not.
>
I love the shuttle, but KSC doesn't need to be entirely destroyed for NASA to decide that the program is too expensive to salvage.
Manned space programs take many years to develop. Even if Bush 43 had made it his biggest priority, even 4 years later we wouldn't have a new orbiter ready yet.
A replacement orbiter should have been appropriated for and begun development during the Bush 41 or Clinton administrations. If they had done that, we'd have a new class of orbiters by now.
"We're sorry, but the website you're trying to reach has been disconnected."
Shuttle Program == Manned Space Program
Shuttle Program == USA Government Manned Space Program.
I don't see China abandoning their program if the shuttle is gone; neither do I see any other interested parties doing so.
Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
I still don't get how anybody can even THINK of abandoning manned space travel. Sure, humans are fragile and expensive. Sure, it's cheaper to send robots. But CRIPES, people. It's an adventure! It's a new experience for the human race. That, IN AND OF ITSELF, is more than enough justification for continuing.
I know all the arguements about how we should fix our problems down here on earth before we pour $$ into space, but I've got news for those people. We're never going to fix those problems. They are caused by human beings. If we wait for the day when everything is hunky dory on this planet, we might as well give up any exploration of any kind.
Dreams are IMPORTANT. That sense of wonder you felt as a little kid looking up at the sky, that's IMPORTANT. Exploration tests us, pushes us, forces us to grow beyond what we thought possible. It seems to be the only way we do that without killing each other in the process. Keeping the mind engaged and interested is essential to who we are as a species.
That's how I feel, anyway. I know there are those who's end vision for the human race seems to be having us all sit in front of the TV while robots do all the work necessary to sustain our physical existance. Well, no thanks. I'll head for the frontier. There's a thought from one of Frank Herbert's books which I consider relevant to both our present and the more degenerate visions of our future:
"It's because there is no Dune there are no Fremen."
"I object to doing things that computers can do." -- Olin Shivers, lispers.org
They are saying the hurricane could be the worst thing to happen to NASA since the fall of the Soviet Union? I personally think it would be great if they were forced to re-think their strategy...after all, "necessity is the mother of invention"
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The infrastructure, personnel and procedures needed to MAINTAIN orbiters is ENTIRELY different from those need to BUILD shuttles. The shuttle building program has been shut down for over a decade.
My bet is the contractors that built the shuttles wouldn't even TOUCH a contract to try to build another set of them. The engineers and other staff involved in the shuttle building have probably retired or died by now.
"We're sorry, but the website you're trying to reach has been disconnected."
From NASAs perspective, a disaster of this scale may be just what they need to raise public awareness and get a wad of "pity cash".
"Don't waste your time or time will waste you" -MUSE
The building was constructed during the Apollo era and has a roof designed to withstand 105 mph winds, Diller said.
Even newer facilities are at risk. The immense hangar where the space station components are tested and stored prior to launch is designed to withstand 110 mph winds.
The cause of most mistakes are that when taking under consideration the requirements for [insert whatever here] is that someone made an "assumption" rather than supporting all information with facts. When these buildings were built, I'm sure somewhere in the Flordia a hurricane came through with winds in excess of 110mph. What would ever make you think it *is* impossible for one to come through the Space Center? I'm mean you spend billions of dollars and do not protect it from hurricanes on the Flordia coast?
Scrap the florida space station! WTF decided to put a launch center in the middle of hurricane heaven anyways?
pack it all up and move it to some that isnt destined to be overrun with mother natures wrath 2-4 times a year.
I follow the SDK and GDN principles.. Spelling Dont Kount, Grammer Dont Neither
As much as nostalgia for the 60's counts for, publicly funded manned space exploration has been dead for a while. Heck, the way our fearless leader in the White House runs things, the only way they'll resume REAL interest in NASA is if one of their probes finds hydrocarbon deposits on the Moon or Mars.
Cynicism aside, resource hunting is going to be our only real shot to get private companies to follow in the the footsteps of the X-prize. It's a sad fact, but the 60's space race was fueled completely on Cold War fears and the simple novelty of our newfound abilities as a species. If we're really going to get off our asses and resume exploring with the same urgency we had then, it's not going to be ideology driven.
Take a look at the "Discovery" of the "New World". Do you think the Spanish, English, and Portugese would have spent all their bling on tall ships if the only result was finding an uninhabitable wasteland? No, they were convinced by the astronauts of the time that the New World contained resources galore, and the rest is history.
In Soviet Russia, all our base are belong to you!
But a pen isn't as inflamable as a pencil in an oxygen-rich spacecraft atmosphere.
And a pen dosn't shed conductive carbon particles into your on-board electronics either.
Which would you rather use (assuming that somebody else is picking up the tab)?
-- We don't understand software, and sometimes we don't understand hardware, but we can *see* the blinking lights
The shuttle's wings allow a glide re-entry, which saves fuel. The tanks and various systems required for the additional fuel would mass more than the wings. RTFM.
What? Why would a sphere with a parachute need more fuel than a shuttle with wings?
Pinky: "What are we going to do tomorrow night Brain?"
Brain: "I would tell you Pinky but this 120 char limi
Not true. 10,000,000 tons of water, and a near-infinite supply of radiation/meteorite shielding...at a minimum. :-)
Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
Score: -1 100% Flamebait
So, would you honestly have us hamstring our entire economy based on speculation?
/sarcasm
Ever heard of risk management. You take a risk, assign it a probability and a cost then by looking at the products you can make you decision about whether to mitigate the risk.
e.g. Probability of asteroid impact = 100%
Cost of asteroid impact = 2 trillion (?)
Result = 100% * 2 trillion = 2 trillion
example 2:
Probability of nuclear war = 1%
Cost of nuclear war = 100 trillion (?)
Result = 1% * 100 trillion = 1 trillion
example 3:
Probability of global warming = 1%
Cost of global warming = 100 trillion (?)
Result = 1% * 100 trillion = 1 trillion
Now replace the words 'trillion' with the word 'millions of human lives' and decide if you want to even ATTEMPT to do something about the POSSIBILITY of a problem.
All you're suggesting is to ignore the issue until it becomes an issue or not. If it becomes an issue all indications are that it will be too late. If it doesn't become an issue then what... you bolstered the economy? Welllllll done!
Pinky: "What are we going to do tomorrow night Brain?"
Brain: "I would tell you Pinky but this 120 char limi
Climatologists have been pointing out that weather patterns have been getting more extreme for some time now
Nonesense. None of the observed patterns are anymore unusual than say, 50 years ago. This is factual and you can look it up. Two major hurricanes hit Florida in the 50's within 6 weeks of each other (Easy and King). Hurricane Andrew was a modified cat 5 in 1992, and the list goes on. Hurricanes happen - they are a natural part of atmospheric stabilization process (cold air on top of warm air - as a simple explanation of instability). Certain years have more hurricanes than other years - you can look up the cycles the National Climatic Data Center, and the Hurricane Forcast Center. It just happens that way - and the cycles have not appreciably modified in past 30 years (keep in mind that the most powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in the US was Camille in the late 60's).
Be careful which 'climatologists' you listen to - many of them follow a political agenda when they give 'expert' opinions. Just take a couple of days and check the data yourself.
To many of the opinions on global climate are driven by nothing more than politics, which is downright stupid. Almost as bad as saying the Hurricane Frances is a deliberate attempt by the Bush administration to disenfranchise the voters in S. FLorida.
It does not matter what you do, it's wrong.
If the -thought- that a Hurricane might cause serious damage to a program is enough for someone to publicly comment that it could halt the program ... -that- is what gives me pause. They seem to be trying at every juncture to make sure we know how fragile the Shuttle program is. Right now I have to think that NASA is -hoping- that hurricane will come by and do just enough damage to call this one.
... but if it's going to die after the shuttle, it will die after the shuttle. If that is the case, better it do it now while no one else has been killed. The Shuttle program is too far past it's prime.
... at this point I feel like Shuttle work has not been exploring for some time. Space Station to some degree yes, but that is being fueled by Russian capsules. And yes, we could go back to our own capsule programs, but that will not be for exploration, it will be for maintenance.
If things are that bad, find a new vehicle. What? No funding for a replacement? Then have the balls -halt- the Shuttle program without one. The only way NASA will ever get the budget needed to take a next step will be if everyone knows that it is that next step or get off the track. As long as the Shuttles "just work" there will not be enough consensus to keep progressing.
I'm a supporter of manned U.S. space exploration
NOTE: "exploration" is the key word there
It is more productive to voice thoughtful opinions (reply) than to judge (moderate) others.
Essentially, just because there are more pressing issues does not mean we should abandon the less pressing issues. It's like telling the police department that they should ignore minor traffic violations because there are people being murdered out there!
What do you mean by "over budget"? They were budgeted X but took more? Their budget is higher than is really necessary? Anyway, your pointless exaggeration just makes you look dumb. "Hundreds of times" over budget? You really think a directed, manned spaceflight program (not "getting a guy into orbit for 10 minutes", an actual program) can be had for $160 million a year? Get real.Yes, I agree that the shuttle should be retired and a new, efficient, non-politicized program be put in its place (I'd also like a pony, while we're at it), but let's watch our blathering rhetoric, here.
"Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
No, what he's saying is don't blow all your resources trying to "fix" a problem and then have it turn out that your "fix" didn't even work. Now there's a huge problem and no money left to fix it, because you got anxious and blew all your resources before you understood what the hell you were doing.
Yes the Russians had a lot of firsts. The trouble was they stayed with the "easy" game and that is LEO.
Whats worse is that the shuttle has put us into the LEO trap. Yeah it is easy to get there, but it is also to get stuck there. The ISS was just a compounding of that same error.
To truly advance in space including both exploration and research we need to leave orbit. That means the moon first and then out from there.
LEO is no better than kicking the dirt down here.
Who really aspires to LEO other than tourist?
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
I know you are just speaking in generalities, but I for one as a USian am ignorant, but not arrogant. I don't care if anyone or no one wants to be like me. I just want to work hard, make a good wage, and go home and enjoy my time with my family. I don't want to kill anyone, rape or pillage the rest of the world, etc. I want to live and let live. I don't want to have to worry about people who want to live and kill others. Unfortunately, I do have to worry about them.
If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.