Hurricane Threatens Shuttle Program

evenprime writes "Hurricane Frances may end NASA's space shuttle program. John Logsdon, a member of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and the head of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., has said: 'If there were serious damage to one or two of the orbiters or the facilities needed to process and launch the orbiters, I think it would raise a very large question about the continuation of the shuttle program.'"

Comments

Might be a good thing...

[Da Fokka]

Of course it would be a disaster if the shuttle program was seriously damaged by this storm. But one positive by-effect would be that NASA would be forced to consider better booster solutions. A lot of the work done by the shuttles could be done safer and cheaper by a booster.

Re:Damn!

[Ignignot]

Except the space program in its current state is only a sideshow for the media. Most if not all of the manned space missions could be better accomplished by robots. The shuttle can barely get to low earth orbit. We need to scrap it all and start over. I hope no one gets hurt, but I don't think it would be such a bad thing if the hurricaine wrecked our space program.

The old Apollo missions were the right direction. Imagine what we could do now, or ten years from now, with better materials, infinitely better computer simulations, better communications, and a deep understanding of the conditions in space. Maybe if we start all over and reach further instead of not as far, we'll have some real progress. To quote Jerry Pournelle, "I always dreamed I'd live to see the first man walk on the moon. I never imagined I'd live to see the last."

Not good at all

[rende]

This is a very serious problem. The damage would have to fairly severe I would imagine, however it does have the possibility of ending the shuttle program.

I was lucky enough to be able to speak with one of the people in the group commisioned to investigate the columbia accident. He told me that one of the reasons they were adamant about finding the trouble behind the accident and making sure it did not happen again (beyond the paramount fact of preventing the loss of human life) was because it was a solid fact based on budgeting that NASA could not continue its shuttle program if it lost one more orbiter. He was fairly confident in the fact if one more was lost it would end program for good.

Not what you want to hear but...

[WIAKywbfatw]

Climatologists have been pointing out that weather patterns have been getting more extreme for some time now.

I'm sure we could all argue until the end of time as to why this has been happenning but I find it rather hilarious that, any time someone mentions the possible negative effects that mankind is having on his environment, hundreds of otherwise sensible people throw rational thought out of the window and refuse point blank to even concede the possibility - even the very smallest chance - that climate change for the worse might be partially our fault.

Here in Britain we've just gone from having the hottest August on record in 2003 to the wettest August on record in 2004. Climatic extremes like those experienced here, in the US and elsewhere aren't things to be taken lightly, they're things to be studied and, ultimately, acted upon. Collectively shrugging our shoulders and sticking our heads in the sand when it comes to finding out why these things are happening with ever greater frequency aren't model solutions.

But, hey, that's just my worthless point of view. Until there's more money in sorting out the problem than there is in exacerbating it, nothing's going to change. Well, at least not for the better.

Some data, and "this will write NASA's ticket"

[kulakovich]

1. The Vehicle Assembly Building is built to withstand a category 5 hurricane. The accessory and newer buildings are only built against a category 3. However, nothing will save the VAB from a category 4 that tears the roof off a nearby cat3 hanger and mashes it into the side of the VAB.

2. KSC at current projections is in the worst spot possible. The eye passing overhead would be merciful if it happens - the eye passing south is worse. The N.W. corner of a hurricane is the strongest in the northern hemisphere.

3. Otherwise, there is still a (anyone?) 30 foot storm surge to contend with.

4. Does anyone know if Atlantis is still in the VAB? I haven't checked. If you do check, make sure you shut the lights off when you are done.

Best case scenario - no one is hurt, and NASA files a gianormous insurance claim Monday morning for a new manned space program.

Kulakovich

Re:Damn!

[meringuoid]

Whether or not manned spaceflight is worthwhile in itself is another argument (which I'm sure will be covered somewhere in this discussion). But spending vast sums of money just to duplicate what cheap and proven Russian equipment already does just fine thank you? That's a _massive_ waste.

Re:Damn!

[meringuoid]

Sorry to reply to myself, but... it occurs to me that the Lunar Transfer Vehicle is something that the US could build, and something that only the US could build. Twenty years of flying the Shuttle has given the US unique experience in building durable, reusable rocket motors - and that's what LTV needs, because it will never land on Earth but will refuel in orbit and fly another leg. Nobody else AFAIK has ever flown reusable engines.

Additionally, this project would be a spectacular demonstration of US technological and economic superiority - and let's be honest here, the US's prestige has been a little tarnished lately. Let's see what America's really capable of, shall we?

Re:Damn!

[Rei]

There are large supplies of oil which are too deep (or a variety of other factors) to pump economically *at today's prices*. If prices rise, they become economic to pump. Canada's vast resources of tar sands, right near the surface, are barely even tapped currently, but will be quite economical if prices rise (they're starting to become economical on their own simply due to advances in technology). Methane hydrates are essentially untapped; while they wouldn't be general purpose, they could be used for heating in place of natural gas and heating oil. And, geez, I'm just getting into hydrocarbon energy sources here...

Fission power is barely tapped; the main restraint is people's fear of it. If energy prices rise, people will have a clear choice, the way they do today with coal vs. solar/etc power (pay more for less theoretical risk, or pay less - which do people choose currently?). With today's inefficient fission power plants, we have enough known deposits alone to last 200 years. With advancing fission tech, that could be extended to 500 or so years. With unfound deposits (again, exploration has been largely limited by usage), you're looking at 1000, 1500, 2000, etc years worth of fission power. But it gets better! With breeder reactors, you can change U238 (normally not usable in fission power) into a usable fission power source, giving 10-50 times as much energy production from a given amount of ore.

We're looking at 10s of thousands of years of power at current rates. Even if we assume that our power consumption continues to grow (despite regular efficiency improvements in devices that consume power), we're still going to be looking at hundreds to thousands of years. If we haven't figured out fusion power by then, we don't deserve to continue on as a species ;)