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US Candidates Ignore Looming Debt Crisis

code_rage writes "Carolyn Lockhead of The San Francisco Chronicle has written an article about one of the most important, but overlooked, political issues we are facing. Baby-boomers will soon begin retiring, which will result in a huge fiscal imbalance (deficits and debts). The article says that the present value of the anticipated debt is estimated to be between $40 trillion and $72 trillion, depending on the source. To put that in perspective, the current national debt is $7.3 trillion.""

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill commissioned a study (free PDF) that was written by Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters. To give a sense of how serious the fiscal imbalance is, consider some of the painful measures that the study said would be necessary to balance the books:
- More than double the payroll tax, from 15.3% to 32% of wages
- Raise income taxes by two thirds
- Cut Social Security and Medicare benefits by 45%
- Eliminate all "discretionary" spending (including such constitutionally mandated government functions as the military and the judiciary)

Peter G. Peterson has written a book about the issue: "Running On Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do about It." He recently gave an interview at the Council on Foreign Relations. He prefers to express the issue in terms of cash flow, because Social Security and Medicare are "pay as you go" systems (there is essentially no trust fund). The cash flow impacts will be an estimated $783 billion in 2020, increasing to trillions later.

Peterson offers some concrete proposals in the interview, and offers some political cover to the candidates in saying "I have never thought that a political campaign is an optimum environment for serious discussion or practical proposals.

59 of 266 comments (clear)

  1. Social Security, etc... by salesgeek · · Score: 3, Insightful

    O'Neil's report is nothing new at all. Social Security is and always has been a grand pyramid scheme that worked because America's population grew fast enough that enought people came in at the next level lowerer on the scheme and enough people died off of the top. People live longer and don't reproduce as much - so the pyramid begins to collapse.

    The best solution may end up being Bush's "ownership society" where we transition from a cashflow scam to personal investment programs. The problem with this, and it is a very big problem is that there is little risk to a healthy chashflow scam and investments are by definition risky. The other problem is that the money would not be 100% under government control and congress could not use the money when other sources of revenues dry up as it uses Social Security today.

    At the end of the day, this issue is of critical importance as I really don't look forward to watching my parents generation financially crush my daughter's generation under the weight of some social contract. Taxes suck. So do governments, but ours is much better than the alternative.

    --
    -- $G
    1. Re:Social Security, etc... by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The problem with this, and it is a very big problem is that there is little risk to a healthy chashflow scam and investments are by definition risky. The other problem is that the money would not be 100% under government control and congress could not use the money when other sources of revenues dry up as it uses Social Security today.

      You're right. But at this point, I'd rather take the investment risk than the certainty of a cashflow system that will fail. The second reason you describe obviates the first... one of the reasons, besides basic mathemetics, is that the so-called Social Security Fund is really just more government debt.

      From what I've heard, in the best of time Social Security ended up rendering about 2% interest in terms of average payouts. There is no 40-year period in the last 100 years where investments in the stock market wouldn't have beat that by a huge margin. The key is the length of time: 40 years. Certain the period from 1928 to 193x was awful, as were other times like 1987, 1990-1991, and the beginning of this decade, but over 40 years, these drops were more than offset by the subsequent economic growth.

      If the government could unleash the economy with true tax reform (a la Dennis Hastert, Jerry Brown and many others), combined with a program of retirement investment becoming personal rather than just another Congressional feedbag and Ponzi scheme, I think the problem can be solved. However, these are drastic measures, and it seems like it would take someone as crazy as Ross Perot to be bold enough to actually propose them (rather than just hint around). That's one thing I really respected about him, by the way. I was really hoping President Bush would drop a huge tax reform bomb at the RNC convention, and I think it could have clinched his run for re-election. Like a friend of mine used to say: The flat tax (or whatever scheme you are talking about, like VAT, etc) won't work perfectly either, but it makes a whole lot of sense to start from there and fix that rather than add to the 20,000 pages of tax code that alreadyt exist. An additional plus is that there's a whole industry of people who could get jobs that actually produce something rather than just waste productivity dealing with an incomprehensible tax code.

      True tax reform and Social Security are just like the weather, everyone talks about them but no one does anything.

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    2. Re:Social Security, etc... by utopiabound · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Social Security is not a personal retirement account.

      It is a social safety net; It is a social pact, a new socal covenant; It is the promise of the Government that when you get old, you will not be homeless and die of hunger. It is not about rich people having more disposable income when they retire. The Rich are not supposed to get the lions share. If you think of Social Security as a safety net then, who gets paid, becomes clear. The people who paid the least get the most, and the people who paid the most get the least. This is the heart of the "New Deal" the new pact between the Government and the People.

      This is a program that, at its heart, is truly Christian (not to say that it doesn't fall well into any other religion, Christian is just what I was raised). This is loving your neighbor. This is helping the poor.

    3. Re:Social Security, etc... by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Social Security is not a personal retirement account.

      But that's what it's been sold as, at least these days. Otherwise it's just another tax and more income redistribution. If they call it that, then I think people will look at it a lot differently, especially since there will be no difference between the hard-working person who couldn't save enough to retire despite good planning and best efforts and the stupid person who didn't plan for the future and squandered his money, from the system's point of view. And we all know proving a negative ("I can't be successful.") is infinitely harder than proving a positive ("I have been successful."), where success here means being able to take care of yourself.

      I'm not disagreeing with your categorization of what it should be. The problem with all these "Christian charity" type Government programs is a.) they are coerced, and b.) that far too many people will do everything they can to unfairly take advantage of them.

      I'm not saying there shouldn't be a safety net, there absolutely should be. But I am extremely leary when the government implements one, because every time it has done it in the past, it has failed. Not in the fact that it didn't provide the safety net, although that happens, but the fact that such programs attract abuse and result in dependency, whether real or perceived.

      It is truly Christian to administer "tough love" (although obviously not to the point of people starving to death). The problem is that there are people who cannot help themselves, temporarily or permanently, and people who will not help themselves, because of lack of education, motivation or need (i.e., the system lets them float along just fine). I think the former, while very real and in genuine need of our help as citizens and as a society, are greatly outnumbered by the latter. The problem is that "The Government provides a safety net." is perceived by many as "The Government owes me a living."

      The pact of the New Deal is that if you do your part, the government will cover your butt if something really bad happens, and that's good. The problem is with the "you do part" part of it. Just like with Communism, the "give what you have and take what you need" won't work when people fail to acknowledge the proper definitions of "have" and "need".

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    4. Re:Social Security, etc... by Bluesman · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If this were true, we'd have means testing of social security recipients.

      As it is now, even the richest old people get their social security check each month.

      What you're describing is welfare.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    5. Re:Social Security, etc... by GOD_ALMIGHTY · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The basis of authority for Social Security is not morality. It's a recognition that we are not willing to let old people simply starve and die in the streets. If we believe that a person has the right to emergency health care, regardless of ability to pay, then it makes sense to pursue policy that decreases the amount of emergency care required by those who cannot pay. Leaving old folks to fend for themselves creates an environment

      Your right about the safety net functions, but this is a recognition of a more advanced and complex society and the rights that must be recognized in order to achieve growth in this modern world. I believe that is a more accurate description of the heart of the New Deal. No law in the US, no matter how "good" or "moral", can use morality as it's basis for authority and remain valid. Laws who's only basis of authority is moral violate the principle of equal protection under the law.

      The GOP economic policy of so-called ownership is about taking ownership of risk, not providing opportunity. If you look at all of their proposals and replace the word opportunity with risk they start to match with reality instead of looking like some ideologue's fantasy. Check out this column by Harold Meyerson, which lays out this concept very clearly.

      --
      Arrogance is Confidence which lacks integrity. -- me
    6. Re:Social Security, etc... by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 2, Informative

      and far more is needed to prevent a crisis.

      It's another big piece of the national debt that doesn't get counted in that $7 trillion total. The frustrating part is that if we poor schmucks engaged in this kind of accounting, we'd end up bankrupt or in jail.

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    7. Re:Social Security, etc... by Silmaril · · Score: 5, Insightful
      [Social Security,] at its heart, is truly Christian [...] This is loving your neighbor. This is helping the poor.

      Walter Williams said it best:

      [R]eaching into one's own pocket to assist his fellow man is noble and worthy of praise. Reaching into another person's pocket to assist one's fellow man is despicable and worthy of condemnation.

      For the Christians among us, socialism and the welfare state must be seen as sinful. When God gave Moses the commandment "Thou shalt not steal", I'm sure He didn't mean thou shalt not steal unless there's a majority vote. And, I'm sure that if you asked God if it's okay just being a recipient of stolen property, He would deem that a sin as well.

    8. Re:Social Security, etc... by NoMoreNicksLeft · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Problems with that:

      1) Living longer, doesn't mean being able to work longer. What percentage of people living to 80 instead of 70 spend those extra 10 years of life demented in a nursing home?

      2) A higher retirement age means less jobs available for the youngest generation. Comic book man now lives in parent's basement until 45 yrs old, instead of 35... there just aren't extra jobs (sure as hell aren't creating jobs otherwise).

      3) Political realities (or rather the fantasies that pass for reality in DC) dictate that not only do we have to keep the current flawed system as is, but create a secondary one in its place even more flawed. Pointing out how insane it is does nothing, the lunatics run this asylum.

    9. Re:Social Security, etc... by Geoffreyerffoeg · · Score: 2, Funny

      This is a program that, at its heart, is truly Christian

      So of course, we must cancel Social Security to enforce separation of church and state! The government cannot be allowed to do good works or help people! They must be evil like...oh wait, Satanism's a religion, too? curses. ;-)

    10. Re:Social Security, etc... by divisionbyzero · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's not racist. Poverty may be the result of racism, and social security may harm the poor, but Social Security is not a racist system. It is not at all the case that only white people are allowed to receive Social Security. It is a fine but important distinction because the true problem is poverty and racism's role in preventing people from getting out of poverty. Calling Social Security racist amounts to race-baiting and is completely unhelpful.

    11. Re:Social Security, etc... by barawn · · Score: 2, Insightful

      [R]eaching into one's own pocket to assist his fellow man is noble and worthy of praise. Reaching into another person's pocket to assist one's fellow man is despicable and worthy of condemnation.

      What an idiotic statement this guy's making. He's neglecting the fundamental facet of "government" - governments exist to provide order. We gain order by sacrificing some of our freedoms. Democracy guarantees that the freedoms we give up are the freedoms that the majority want to give up, and the order that we gain is the order that the majority want. The government cannot be immoral if the people are free to choose the order to gain the freedoms. In other words, it's only immoral if they can't leave the country.

      No one is forcing people to remain in the US. They can leave, and stop paying Social Security if they want to. The point is that the majority of the people have decided "if you want to live with us, you must agree to pay into Social Security if you work."

      To call this stealing is moronic. By that logic, all taxation is stealing, and is sinful. How is social security any different than a publicly funded fire department? Most people never see the benefits of a fire department. Shouldn't the people whose houses burn down have to pay the fire department for their services, and then, if everyone else in the community wants to, they can help and give donations to those people? Can't I make the same argument for the police as well?

      Laws that don't force actions upon people can't be sinful, because you can always choose to not do said actions. And you're not forced to pay into Social Security. You can still leave the country. But that's the price of living in the US with the rest of us.

      It can't be stealing if you agreed to it. And since you can leave, you did agree.

    12. Re:Social Security, etc... by GOD_ALMIGHTY · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If 6.5% up to the first $87K per year for guaranteed retirement income that will cover a basic standard of living (minus health care) is draconian, I don't know what to tell you where to put your money. Social Security also pays disability to you if you can no longer work.

      As for being a scam, yes there's a problem that the system can only pay for itself if there are more working people than people collecting benefits. However, these previous generations payed for your education, built the roads you use, the sewer systems, etc, etc, etc. Go watch The Life of Brian again where everyone is complaining about the Romans, you'll get the picture.

      I can't say I entirely disagree with your position on the boomers, but I do disagree with your example. Your anger is misdirected. Social Security and other programs are not your problem. Your tax bill is not the problem. Your idea is to redivide the pie of your paycheck, you should be worried about how to grow your paycheck. Average incomes have been falling since a peek in the early 70's before either of us were born. You'd be making $6000 more a year in real dollars in 1970 with your current salary. Life is much more competitive for us than our parents. You can blame the previous two generations' culture wars for a lot of this.

      What your experiencing is a lack of oppurtunity for growth. The concentration of wealth that occured while everyone was worried that drug using, free loving hippies were going to destroy the world, along with the commies, has put you and the rest of us in the middle class at a competitive disadvantage. The Founding Fathers warned us of this. The Federalists claimed that factionalism among equals would sustain the balance of power. Noah Webster, writing in support of the Federalists, stated that power was actually wealth. If you look at the history of our country, through the 19th century we gave everyone who wanted to move West a family farm. Once the industrial revolution hit, there wasn't as much good farm land left, and family farming wasn't a great way to get ahead. With a growing population, most people wound up working in factories, regulations were required to ensure these people weren't exploited to the point where society was damaged. That's how we wound up with Unions, labor law, 40 hour weeks and Social Security. The first half of the 20th century had a large number of victories which helped to create the prosperity (along with wartime spending, GI Bill) that the boomers have been using up.

      Our modern society requires that we have stable foundations to grow, new industries like utilities create that foundation. Innovation won't happen when the only place to build the future is shifting sands. Social safety nets also create that foundation. You can take risks if you have a safety net. If your in the middle class, that safety net can mean the difference between poverty and bouncing back from a risk that goes bad. These anti-government, anti-regulation fools are handing the keys to the kingdom to the hands of our future masters. Concentration of wealth is the greatest threat the our country.

      If you want to solve this problem, learn law. I don't mean learn how to sue people, I mean an academic understanding of the ideals of law and it's history. It's just as scientific a field as programming. When you understand this and can apply it to the world around you, you will be able to identify your challenges and your enemies. This country has forgotten it's history and have attached to some mythological idea born of anti-intellectualism. Embrace that history and remember that it is your right, no one grants it to you because the Constitution guarantees it to you, if no one will honor this right then you must take it. If this society or system will not provide it, then it no longer has just authority over you. You are not the one failing to live up to the deal, they are.

      As for immediate action, stay calm, vote every chance you get (vote Democrat right now, after the election, different story), study law and le

      --
      Arrogance is Confidence which lacks integrity. -- me
    13. Re:Social Security, etc... by salesgeek · · Score: 2

      What an idiotic statement this guy's making. He's neglecting the fundamental facet of "government" - governments exist to provide order.

      Governments exist for many reasons. Order is one of many reasons. Some of these reasons conflict with one another.

      We gain order by sacrificing some of our freedoms. Democracy guarantees that the freedoms we give up are the freedoms that the majority want to give up,

      We live in a republic, not a democracy. Our government has a constitution and judicial system that protect the rights of the minority against the tyrany of the majority (at least most of the time). It takes an extrodinary majority over a long period of time to change the constitution - if you will an extraordinary consensus.

      The government cannot be immoral if the people are free to choose the order to gain the freedoms. In other words, it's only immoral if they can't leave the country.

      Immorality != Ability of me to leave if I don't like it.

      A government that is immoral, generally does cause citizens to leave. But it does not have to.

      No one is forcing people to remain in the US.

      Is your cure for racism the same a social security? If you don't like it then leave. How... fair of you.

      To call this stealing is moronic. By that logic, all taxation is stealing, and is sinful.

      What Williams was refering to is the redistribution of wealth where the governement plays robin hood and takes from the rich and gives to the poor. Read the "takes from the" part. Being rich or successful is not a crime, and justice does not require anything be done about it. Robin Hood is a great fictional character, but the real thing is no where near as benevelent as it taxes the poor, too. And it taxes them heavily and often.

      How is social security any different than a publicly funded fire department?

      Because the fire department isn't going to be taking 33% out of young families pockets and giving the money to someone who had a lifetime to prepare for retirement. Try being just out of college, two kids and a wife to feed and having a tax rate of say 40% net -- or 60% net which is where things are trending if SS isn't fixed. (oh, wait... 40% is what we pay here in the US when you include state, federal, local, sales and excise taxes). Holy empty piggy-bank batman.

      Most people never see the benefits of a fire department.

      Laws that don't force actions upon people can't be sinful, because you can always choose to not do said actions.

      The problem is many laws do force actions. Taxes are one such example. You MUST pay them. They are not sinful (by Chrisitian definition.. can't speak for the Muslims, Jews, Bhudists and C'thulu worshippers out there).

      And you're not forced to pay into Social Security. You can still leave the country. But that's the price of living in the US with the rest of us.

      I hope this changes before my kids grow up because it is unjust to expect my daughter's kids to pay 33% of their income to pay me some kind of saftey net payment. I will have had a lifetime to set myself up for retirement.

      It can't be stealing if you agreed to it. And since you can leave, you did agree.

      I'm sure Dr. King would appreciate this logic being applied to racism in the 60's... Oh wait... it was by people that told him and the honorable men and women who fought for equality with him to go back to Africa.

      --
      -- $G
  2. Debt clock by tod_miller · · Score: 4, Interesting

    debt clock

    The problem is, if they do not get it under balance, the dollar will plummet, and then loose value as people loose faith in it.

    This is a real fear in 4-7 years. (I won't go into i18n economy bonds, and how they will weaken until the global economy becomes more bouyant)

    --
    #hostfile 0.0.0.0 primidi.com 0.0.0.0 www.primidi.com 0.0.0.0 radio.weblogs.com
  3. Debt isn't sexy by ghostlibrary · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Problem is, real issues like Debt or Fiscal Policy aren't sexy enough to campaign. You can't stake out turf, or slander the others.

    "My opponent is sending us into debt. I pledge, if elected, to send us _less_ into debt than he. This is leadership."

    Electionining at all levels is always about tangibles. 'Tough on crime', 'tough on terror', 'taking a stand on gay marriage'. Debt isn't cool in that context. No one likes debt, but no one wants to talk about it.

    Oddly enough, having researched the issues, I support the candidate I do because he has a record of slashing the budget in a way I agree with, as opposed to the other guy, who slashes stuff I think he could keep.

    (Well, I had to mention slash, this is slash-dot!)

    They should run elections just by listing all issues candidates mention, but don't list the candidates. You just vote 'yes/no/don't care' for each _issue_ and whichever matches most with a given candidates platform-on-record, they get your vote.

    So 'ban on gay marriage' would have yes/no/don't care'. You vote 'yes', that may tally for either candidate-- or both, if they both support it, or neither, if they both don't care or are both against it. And your vote is the tally of all issues, whomever you support most gets your 1 vote.

    So, yeah, maybe you'd only find out who you voted for _after_ voting, but it'd be on the real issues, not the spin or marketing of the candidate!

    --
    A.
  4. Generational Warfare by macinrack · · Score: 4, Interesting

    We are headed for general warfare. The Republicans seem to think that we can spend spend spend and give away all our piggy bank and the sun will somehow still shine. Democrats are convinced that letting in waves of immigrants from the South will fund the Social Security system. What a mess. The fact is that the younger generation will not have enough to give, and the Me Generation (they call themselves 'boomers') will not be willing to give up anything they have been promised. It will come to a head when the younger generation finally is in power, like the Me Generation is now, and hard decisions are made about whom gets what. Generational Warfare.

  5. Bush and the deficit by jamie · · Score: 5, Insightful
    This is why I wish Child's Pay had been allowed to air during the Super Bowl. I think most Americans, Republican and Democrat, are honest and honorable enough that we don't want to stick our children with the bill for what we are enjoying today.

    But most Americans don't have a clue what is going on. I saw a billboard last night that said, "Remember, it's your money" -- and it was an ad for Bush-Cheney! The administration that insisted tax cuts were the prescription for times of plenty, for times of recession, for times of peace and times of war, has now seen the unwanted side-effects: a languid recovery, and a trillion dollars added to the debt. A budget surplus, the first in modern times, converted instantly to massive deficit.

    Sometimes I wonder if there isn't a way to start talking about the debt as the balance on our nation's credit card. Maybe if we put overspending into terms that the average consumer could understand, and stuck to those terms, people could finally start to get it. This country produces $11 trillion of wealth every year, and, through our government, we are $7.4 trillion in debt. Maybe if we start comparing the government to a family that's making $110,000 a year, but is $74,000 in debt, we could have a real national debate about government spending. The question is not whether "it's your money," but whether, being $74,000 in debt, it's a good idea for you to get a brand-new credit card and go rack up another $4,000 on it every year -- as Bush and the Republican Congress are now doing.

    Especially when massive, unavoidable costs are just over the horizon.

    Grover Norquist has declared his goal of drowning the government in a bathtub, and his way of doing it is to spend it into oblivion. The Republican Party has sold out the country by signing on with this brand of destruction. What it's going to yield is not prosperity and limited government, but anarchy and -- very possibly, in the decades to come -- the end of America as an economically powerful beacon of freedom. When our children are serfs for the wealthy who have bought up the country, when the old are baking to death because we can't afford to buy them air conditioners, when the poor and the sick die alone because we can't provide them with basic health care, when the unregulated food makes us sick and the unregulated drugs are a crapshoot, when half the country will never be able to retire and will be forced to work at McDonald's and Wal-Mart until their bodies fail, I hope people remember the name of Grover Norquist, and who it was that put his theories into practice. One percent of this country will always enjoy all the best things in life, but everyone else will be wondering what it was like before our government was drowned, and if those folks back in the '90s and '00s knew how good they had it.

    1. Re:Bush and the deficit by jamie · · Score: 3, Informative
      It is indeed Bush's fault. About half of the deficits are the result of Bush's tax cuts:

      The prime cause of giant budget deficits is a plunge in the federal government's tax take, which fell from 20.9 percent of G.D.P. in fiscal 2000 to a projected 15.7 percent this year, the lowest share since 1950. About 45 percent of this plunge can be attributed to the Bush tax cuts. The rest reflects the end of the stock market bubble, the still-depressed economy and -- probably -- growing tax sheltering and evasion.

      (Note: much of the reason the economy is taking so long to recover is, obviously, the war in Iraq, and the fact that Bush's tax cuts were back-loaded, having most of their effect in the years to come, not in the three years we just lived through.)

      And you simply have no idea what you're talking about re "massively increased spending." Go look up what the annual increases in discretionary spending were under Clinton and under Bush. Even Cato calls it "The Republican Spending Explosion."

    2. Re:Bush and the deficit by llefler · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah, that's Bush's fault.

      I have been concerned about Social Security for quite a while. As well as all the talk about budget deficits while completely ignoring the debt. But I didn't have a real fear of our fiscal future until I saw ultra conservative Pat Buchanan railing against the Republican party over their stance on outsourcing and government spending. His predictions for the next 10 years are every bit as dire as any posted here.

      We're going to have to start protecting our higher paying jobs, get control on government spending (lets clean up the two wars we have, instead of trying to start new ones in Korea and Iran), and get rid of our budget deficit. Balancing the budget is no longer enough, we need a surplus to pay for current and future debt responsibilities. I like tax cuts as much as the next guy, but they are irresponsible when we don't have a surplus. It's like saying "I'm not going to pay the gas bill this month, I need more discretionary money to 'invest' in a new SUV."

      And as far as privatizing Social Security; unless you are willing to tell someone to sleep on the street and starve when they lose their money, it will do nothing but make things worse.

      So yes, as long as Bush is president and he continues to ignore the train wreck, all the while finding ways to spend more and more money, then it is his fault. We've gone from a budget surplus to a record breaking deficit in 4 years. And while it's nice to blame it on the dot bomb bust, I'm sure 130,000 troops in Iraq aren't exactly helping the bottom line.

      --
      It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit. -- Harry Truman
  6. You can protect your money by roystgnr · · Score: 5, Funny

    The problem is, if they do not get it under balance, the dollar will plummet, and then loose value as people loose faith in it.

    The trick to surviving such a crash is to choose investments that aren't tied to the value of the dollar. We're advising our clients to put everything they have into canned food and shotguns.

    1. Re:You can protect your money by tod_miller · · Score: 3, Insightful

      if you're going to buy 80 kilos of uncut peruvian cocaine what are you going to pay with? drachmas?

      Drachmas? As if, Greece uses the Euro now.

      as a general rule: if it's against the law, it's paid for in greenbacks.

      Queue the american national anthem. You must be so proud!

      the greenback will stay the strongest currency

      You make the assumption that it is the strongest currency, which clearly it is not.

      Also, this outstanding debt means, that the greenabcks in your pocket, are not actually yours, but belong to someone else who has been promised to be paid back, and if this breaks down, then noone will want them.

      If the price of your cocaine sky rockets (in $$$), I wouldn't be suprised.

      --
      #hostfile 0.0.0.0 primidi.com 0.0.0.0 www.primidi.com 0.0.0.0 radio.weblogs.com
  7. Candidates, or News Organizations ignoring debt? by dpilot · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Do we really know who is ignoring the issues? I know that the only time I've heard more than two sentences from Kerry was his acceptance speech at the DNC, and only on CSPAN. On network news his speech was overlayed and overshadowed by Talking Heads. Beyond that time, I don't hear anything else about Kerry's proposals. The news covers polls, Swifties, fonts, and superscripts. They don't cover election issues, as far as I can tell.

    I honestly can't comment on Bush's ability to get his words out. In a way, it just doesn't matter, because Bush has had nearly 4 years with a friendly Congress, so we don't need to hear what he says. We can see what he has done. We can expect more of the same, changing only the degree of aggression in pursuit, based on Congressional makeup.

    I have 4 possiblities:
    1: The news services are incompetent, and have forgotten how to cover hard news in favor of covering fluff.
    2: The news services are interested primarily in revenue, and know that pushing emotional hot buttons is the best way to Sell More.
    3: (mild tin-foil hat) The broadcasters that own the news services want to keep consolidating, and know Kerry is less likely to go along. Therefore they want Bush to win. Open coverage of issues like the National Debt hurt Bush, so they don't get covered.
    4: (strong tin-foil hat) The news services are in it with the Space Aliens and the Republican Comittee, and all want Bush to win. The rest is like (3).

    For any choice above, IMHO the new services are failing in their responsibility to cover the news and enlighten the population.

    --
    The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
  8. Not ignored by Kohath · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Bush talked about Social Security reforms at the convention.

    The rest of the Federal debt is constantly overhyped. I remember in the 80s it was going to kill us all, and in 2000 we were going to pay it off on 10 years. Now it's going to kill us all again.

    The solution is very simple: cut spending, grow the economy, reform Social Security into private accounts. Bush is saying he'll do all those.

    The Social Security "obligations" can be retired by selling government land. The Federal government owns most of the land west of the Mississippi.

    1. Re:Not ignored by AHumbleOpinion · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But what he actually did the last four years is almost exactly the oppositie - cut taxes and increase spending.

      50% accurate, he did not promise to raise taxes.

      Also, seven months into his term he was forced to seriously adjust national priorities and focus on unanticipated problems and issues.

    2. Re:Not ignored by dcmeserve · · Score: 2, Informative
      He broke every promise from Last election, too. He promised to cut government spending, but has vastly accelerated it, even before 9/11. He promised to reform education and got the Dems to go along with NCLB, but then refused to fund it. He promised to bring credibility to the White House, but instead transplanted Clinton's personal life into dishonest economics (like unemployment staying constant while the overall number of jobs drops, or lying about the cost of Medicare prescription drugs) and dishonest foreign intelligence. He denounced nation building (in Kosovo), but launched a war with no other purpose than destroying a nation so we could rebuild it to suit our purposes.

      Credibility, education, and the size of government, restraint in military adventurism. Those were probably the biggest themes of his "compassionate conservative" campaign--and he has delivered on not a single one of them.

      Bush never promised you personally would be satisfied. The fact that you're not has little bearing on whether he kept his campaign promises.

      Your lack of thought now shows through. In your mind, you are twisting what he said into a statement of his own "satisfaction", rather than the objective facts he is actually laying out.

      Or do you mean that you yourself are personally satisfied with broken campaign promises, and that somehow means that the promises were actually kept?

      Either way, there are some serious flaws in your thinking. Pretty typical.

      --
      "Orthodoxy is unconsciousness" - Orwell
  9. Reality Check by rueger · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The perception is that politicians get re-elected by spending money in their constituencies. The aim of course is to spend tax dollars in whatever way will register with the largest group of voters.

    As evidenced by the Bush administration, politicians really don't give a fig about debt - they care about getting re-elected. If a few billion dollars of deficit spending will bring in the votes, that's what they'll do.

    Of course, voters aren't much different. I have yet to hear a fiscal conservative make a list of the things that they are prepared to forego in the name of debt reduction, only the things that everyone else should give up.

  10. There is another choice by sofakingon · · Score: 4, Interesting
    There is a candidate who will veto ALL deficit spending if elected:

    Taken from badnarik.org

    Every working American is acquainted with the principle of balancing his or her checkbook. You have income. You have expenses. If your expenses are larger than your income, you either cut expenses or you start getting nasty letters from your bank and your creditors about bounced checks. Maybe you end up in court. Maybe you go to jail.

    Unfortunately, we--the people--are the federal government's "bank" ... and right now, we don't have any way to bounce the rubber checks that Congress writes and the president signs.

    Deficit spending is no different in principle for the government than it is for you or me. It happens when government spends more money than it takes in.

    When that happens, the people must inevitably take it on the chin sooner or later. Either the government raises taxes, or it inflates the currency--reducing the spending power of the money we've earned--to pay off the debt it has amassed.

    One obvious solution, of course, is to forbid Congress to spend more than it takes in. While a "balanced budget amendment" to the Constitution has been proposed--and while I support such an amendment--there's no substitute for a chief executive whose veto pen stands ready to shut down any congressional appropriations in excess of revenues.

    As your president, I'll veto deficit spending. Period. I expect this to be an easy thing to do, since I'll be slashing the size of the federal government at the same time--so much so that taxes will be slashed as well.

    A second solution is to put the American economy back on real money, backed by gold and silver, and to take away the ability of the Federal Reserve to create "money" out of thin air, debasing the value of the "money" in your wallet.

    The Constitution delegates the power to coin money to Congress. As your president, I'll insist that they discharge that responsibility instead of fobbing the job off on an external entity like the Fed. And I'll veto legislation for any such operation that doesn't meet the true test of money: It is either made of gold or silver, or can be redeemed for a fixed amount of gold or silver.

    A nation's money is its economic lifeblood. Passing on our debt to future generations, or defrauding the people and the government's creditors with inflation, are not options. Those paths lead inevitably to economic collapse; mine leads to long-term prosperity.

    I'm Michael Badnarik, Libertarian for President. I ask the tough questions--to give you answers that really work!

    1. Re:There is another choice by joss · · Score: 3, Informative

      Why gold and silver, why not butterflies.

      What is inherently more real about using gold and silver as a basis for currency than some other arbitrary good ?

      If someone creates something, eg writes a computer program, there is more stuff in the world, and either more money needs to be created, prices need to go down, or we end up with a situation where there is plenty of stuff around, but not enough money for people to buy it. Stuff gets created all the time, so the amount of money available has to go up continually. Since we have fractional reserve banking system money is continually created [in form of debt]. In fact, so much is created that we end up with inflation rather than deflation.

      I agree that the current debt based monetary system is responsible for a huge number of problems, but it works better than the gold standard did. It's not just that it works better, economies which relied on stagnant money supplies got wiped out in an almost darwinian fashion. Debt based money fosters growth [and inflation, boom/bust economics, banking supremacy, war and other stuff, but it's certainly less stagnant].

      I recommend "The grip of death" for a better understanding of this stuff.

      --
      http://rareformnewmedia.com/
  11. Bush mentions SS on his web site, Kerry doesn't... by PatHMV · · Score: 3, Interesting

    At least President Bush discusses the problems facing Social Security and gives the general philosophy behind his solution. John Kerry doesn't even list Social Security as a national issue.

  12. The Candates get away with ignoring it .. by torpor · · Score: 3, Insightful

    .. because the People ignore it, too.

    Ignorance of the issues concerning the National Debt lead to Big Profit on the part of Banks (and other Lenders) to whom the Debt is owed... so you can be damned sure that popular culture has no clue just deep in the red the nation is ...

    In other words, its not enough to blame the politicians. Blame the people, and the Banks, too ...

    --
    ; -- the corruption of government starts with its secrets. a truly free people keep no secrets. --
  13. What will we do? by clambake · · Score: 2, Funny

    How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do about It.

    Quite simple realy... We'll wait until they are all old and feeble and then stop paying for them. It's cruel, but they brought it on themselves.

  14. Enron showed how delusional Bush plan is by leftie · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Corporations go bankrupt, and their investors lose everything they have invested when they do.

    All these privatization of Social Security plans are scams devised by the filthy rich to have the stock markets flooded with capital so that THEIR investments will be massively increased in value. The investor class has their investment spike while the average worker is forced to pay a premium.

    None of these privatization schemes offers any suggestions about what to do when the next Enron happens and people lose their retirement savings. Are we supposed to shake our heads at old people and tell them to starve in the streets because the senior management of the corporation looted all the value out of the company?

    There has to be a safety net for the elderly and disabled in our society. Ensuring they have minimum standard of living is far more important than the investor class getting a huge increase in their account values from a massive sump of capital into the stock markets.

    1. Re:Enron showed how delusional Bush plan is by Cereal+Box · · Score: 3, Insightful

      None of these privatization schemes offers any suggestions about what to do when the next Enron happens and people lose their retirement savings.

      Likewise, you aren't offering any suggestions about what to do when Social Security collapses under its own weight in the near future...

    2. Re:Enron showed how delusional Bush plan is by leftie · · Score: 2, Informative

      Work while you are healthy and productive.

      Yeah... that's the way Social Security was designed.

      When Social Security was started, it was not a retirement plan. It was a safety net to protect those who aren't capable of earning a reasonable living. People are so much healthier now so much later in life that it's reasonable that those who are in good health continue to work later in life.

      However, that's also why, in exchange for increasing the retirement age, you expedite the process through which those who aren't healthy enough to work can be started up on disability much more quickly and easily.

    3. Re:Enron showed how delusional Bush plan is by leftie · · Score: 2, Informative

      What you are saying is that you want a program that is twice the size of social security and twice the cost of social securuty that provides half the benefits.

      Every single private industry insurance program that has ever been concieved has required government bailout to pay off what the private industry insurance program was supposed to pay out and did not. FDIC and FSLIC completely failed in the saving and loan scandal of the 1980's. The US government provided 99.99% of the payouts to customers of those failed banks and savings and loans.

      Therefore, the only way you could ensure a private industry safety net investment program would not fail would be through regulation. You clearly don't understand what kind of government regulatory monstrosity you would have to build to monitor people's investment transactions to ensure the goal of providing a safety net.

      What you don't understand is that in dealing with programs of massive scale for society, it make far more sense and costs much less to allow govenment to provide the services.

  15. Class Warfare already declared by investor class by leftie · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The investor class declared war on the middle class and poor long, long ago. 90% of the wealth in the US is held by the top 10% and 50% of the wealth is held by the top 1%. I'm so tired of trying to point out that fact and hearing "CLASS WARFARE!" in response from right wingers.

    NO... "class warfare" is all the policies since Reagan was sworn in that got almost all the wealth in this society in the hands of the investor class.

  16. Re:Bush mentions SS on his web site, Kerry doesn't by pb · · Score: 2, Informative

    It's under medicare, go figure.

    --
    pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
  17. I say none of them. by pb · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's possible to start responsibly paying down the debt without any huge shifts in economic policy, Clinton proved that. The amount we pay on interest on the national debt every year is often less than the deficit itself, which implies that if we didn't have the debt now, we wouldn't get into more debt! So all we have to do is start paying it down, and eventually our interest payments will shrink as well.

    As a percentage of the budget, it isn't that big a chunk, so we wouldn't have to cut back too much. As for Social Security, I suggest we raise payroll taxes and income taxes slightly, and/or possibly institute a small national sales tax on luxury items. Simultaneously, we can start saving the Social Security surplus for Social Security, instead of spending it on the rest of the budget--because we know we'll need that money!

    So there; no drastic changes. It isn't all bread and circuses, but it's at least somewhat responsible and forward-thinking.

    --
    pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
  18. Re:Read my post again please :-) by Canthros · · Score: 2, Informative

    No, a baby boomer, at least in the context of the Social Security problem, was a child born during the baby boom of 1945-65. The group you refer to as their parents is either the Silent Generation or the G. I. Generation (aka the Greatest Generation, and a handful of other names, reflecting their involvement in fighting WWII).

    Run "baby boomer definition" through Google and see what you get. I'd be curious to know which web dictionary you got you're definition from; it's not correct.

    --
    Canthros
  19. Some more suggestions to save tax $ by russeljns · · Score: 2, Insightful

    -End the "War on Drugs"
    -Pull out of Iraq. Now.
    -End military aid to ALL foreign coutries
    -Stop development of Star Wars defense system and new nuclear devices.

    --

    ----
    This concludes our transmission to Oceania.

  20. Re:Lots of small changes by Cade144 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    4. Work hard to reduce medical expenses. This is a huge problem and incredibly complex. I suspect that improving public health (reducing smoking, alcohol abuse, fat-assedness, etc.) would help tremendously. Working on decreasing the price of perscription drugs is a help, but it's drops in the very big bucket.

    5. Put a Medicare tax on stuff that makes people sick. Cigarettes, booze, and restaurants would be a great start. Why should some Americans get to enjoy a butt, a beer, and a double burger -- and then enjoy health care paid for by those who treat their bodies better. Drinking, smoking, and eating crap food is part of the American way... but those doing the enjoying should be paying their fair share for their future added costs.

    Just to be a bit dismal, I think you miss one of the key problems with both Medicare and Socical Security: Longevity.

    When both Social Security and Medicare were conceived (heck most pension plans for that matter) life expectancy wasn't much pas age 65 or so. If you managed to live long enough, you could benefit from your company's penson plan, or the government backup (Social Security) and get government medical benefits so that getting sick once didn't wipe you out financially (Medicare).

    However, medical technology, good dentistry, and the "health craze" movement have all added years on to people's lives. Now people live longer, and expect to partake in the government largesse. People who live longer need expensive medications and surgeries to help them live longer. The longer they live, the more Social Security and Medicare money they soak up.

    Just look at President Clinton or VP Dick Cheney. Both men would be dead (or unable to do much more than lay in bed) without nifty cardiac surgeries. Those surgeries cost thousands and thousands of dollars. (I am not saying that the price of these procedures is too much, just that they cost lots of money.) Now that their lives have been prolonged, they can expect to continue taking medicines to keep their cholesterol down, blood pressure down, and so on for the rest of their lives. This costs more money. When they finally make it to the age where cancer starts to take them down, they can expect to use more money on cancer treatment.

    The longer you live, the more it costs to keep you alive. Multiply that by all the people eligible for Medicare, and you can see how the policy of providing medical treatment to people is a positive feedback loop that rapidly chews up all your spare money.

    How do we solve this problem? Heck if I know. I don't want to turn us into some parody of Logan's Run where people are forcibly retired from living at age n. But I do want those who run for political office and who claim "leadership" as one of their defining adjectives, to discuss this seriously.

  21. Re:Not exactly being ignored by MarsDefenseMinister · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Don't conflate the issues. I'm a mega-liberal, and I'll challenge any of those pansy conservatives out there to a duel any day.

    There's a difference between raising the retirement age and privatizing Social Security and medicare or a flat tax. If people are living longer, it makes sense to raise the retirement age.

    But, privatizing services, or going to a flat tax would be disastrous, I agree. There's a real chance that our country will move in the next few years from being a democracy, to a plutocracy. The rich will rule and get richer. The rest of us will have to bend a knee to our royal dynasties. Their power will continue generation after generation with no estate tax, and in the end we'll be no better than the regime that we fought a revolution against.

    --
    No weapon in the arsenals of the world is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men.-Ronald Reagan
  22. Issues or candidates by Mawbid · · Score: 2, Interesting
    They should run elections just by listing all issues candidates mention, but don't list the candidates.

    Good idea, but why not go all the way and just allow voting on the issues directly?

    The thing I really hate about current democratic systems is that you're always voting for a person (or worse, a group of people). You have to pick the person whose stand is closest to yours on a range of issues. Unless you're using one of the candidates as the source of your opinions, you're unlikely to find a candidate that wants the all the same things as you do.

    So let's say you're anti-X and anti-Y, and all the candidates are pro-X, anti-Y or anti-X, pro-Y. You're forced to either support something you don't believe in, or not vote. And even after you vote for the pro-X candidate (because you don't want to suffer these assholes who think you've no right to complain if you don't vote), you have no guarantee they'll actually deliver on what they promised.

    The system we have today for discovering and enforcing the will of the people is ...suboptimal.

    Are there any better methods available? I know we won't get a perfect solution to a problem this complex, but surely we can do better.

    --
    Fuck the system? Nah, you might catch something.
    1. Re:Issues or candidates by ghostlibrary · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Hi,

      > Good idea, but why not go all the way and just allow voting on the issues directly?

      That, alas, goes entirely against the idea of a Republic, and also leads to 'tyranny of the masses'.

      The idea behind the US gov't is that gov't is too complicated for each us to constantly stay informed of and be able to fully judge each issue.

      So, instead of requiring every citizen to be fully and accurately informed every day on 200+page bills, we instead use representatives. "I don't know gov't, but I trust that Joe's views are close to mine, and that he'll represent me accurately."

      Contrast this to a pure democracy-- say, at the neighborhood level. If the issue is raised to 'evict Mawbid due to fashion sense' and 51% agree, you're screwed. That's tyranny of the masses (corrolary: a good society is one where it is safe to be unpopular.)

      In a representative system, though, 51% might vote for Fred, who runs on a Pro-Eviction platform, but Fred will (hopefully) look and say, hey, we don't really have a mandate here, and Mawbid's fashion errors aren't enough to do this.

      In short, the republic adds friction and a buffer between the populace and laws. Both are good-- we don't want gov't making instant laws or automatically going with slight majorities.

      So voting directly on issues, nope. Voting more accurately for candidates and removing the marketing/advertising of career politicians, that I'm for!

      --
      A.
    2. Re:Issues or candidates by Mawbid · · Score: 2, Interesting
      OK, shut up about my fashion sense! :-)

      I realise it's not a good idea to expect everybody to read all the bills. We don't even expect congresspeople to read all the bills.

      "Either we pick people to decide all the issues, or we decide all the issues diretcly" is a false dichotomy. It's possible to imagine a solution in between.

      For instance, it could be a rule that the signatures of some percentage of voters forces a referendum on any issue. Once decided, the issue is out of the hands of politicians. I'm not necessarily recommending precisely that, but you get the idea.

      We choose candidates largely based on where they stand on issues, so we're already making up our minds about some of the big issues: Do you want us all to pay for healthcare for everyone? Do you support capital punishment? Do the people have the right to ban areas of scientific research? Should art be publicly funded through grants? I imagine you already know the answer to these questions.

      The tyranny of the masses is really orthogonal to this. Representative democracy produced the sodomy laws that make criminals of homosexuals.

      How do we make sure our political system does good? That's begging the question.

      Current political systems are flawed. So is any alternative, but they might still be better, so it's worth dreaming them up and evaluating them.

      --
      Fuck the system? Nah, you might catch something.
  23. Dollar devaluation is how it will be solved by DukeLinux · · Score: 2

    The government does not have the stomach to stop it's ponzi scheme. When the proverbial shit hits the fan people will still receive their "entitlement." It just won't be worth anything. The sitting President will have to go to war (wag the dog) as long as the countries who design our weapons systems let him :).

  24. The situation is not totally helpless however.. by CashCarSTAR · · Score: 4, Interesting

    You just need to be willing to think outside the box. To look at the big picture.

    Problem:The debt is every growing, unless drastic measures, which are politically implausible are taken. Why?

    Not enough tax money is being taken in to cover the costs. Simple. So you can either cut costs, or you can figure out ways to expand the tax base. Can you expand the tax base without raising taxes? Sure can!

    Steps that can be taken:
    #1. Raising the minimum wage by a substantial amount. This would increase the tax base by quite a wide margain. As well, it would relieve strain on various governmental services by quite a wide bit. Sure, it would cut down on corporate profits...boo fucking hoo.

    #2. For the cost of the medicare system, we can publicize the whole thing and bring out Universal Health Care. Again overal this would create more a more efficent system, which basic economics says creates more jobs, meaning a higher tax base. As well, it would have a nice side-effect of fighting overseas job loss, as rising health care costs are a big motivator to move the jobs in the first place. Cut the parasites out.

    #3. Make it official government policy to have as many people to work as possible. Current government policy is to maintain a certain unemployment rate to fight inflation. Get the people you need to do whatever jobs needed to be done. Sure it costs tax dollars. But with all the spinoff money of those jobs, the amount of taxes taken in will much more than account for the additional costs.

    Three steps that can be taken to enlargen the tax base without costing you a dime. (Unless you pay somebody minimum wage, which in that case FUCK YOU parasite). Yeah the corporations will bitch and scream. But it's pure survival folks. It's them or us.

    Take your pick.

    1. Re:The situation is not totally helpless however.. by jpryan98 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So we raise the min wage to $50/hr. What will this do. I currently make$35/hr so I need a raise to $75/hr because I do not have a basic job. The people that have more responsibilities than me get a raise to $100/hr. So now that means that everything that we produce must cost more to cover our wages as I work in a small business and there is no big corporate money. Our product that was selling for $150 must now sell for $225. Are you as a consumer willing to pay that increase or is my company going out of business?

    2. Re:The situation is not totally helpless however.. by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Steps that can be taken: #1. Raising the minimum wage by a substantial amount. This would increase the tax base by quite a wide margain. As well, it would relieve strain on various governmental services by quite a wide bit. Sure, it would cut down on corporate profits...boo fucking hoo.

      Hmm, so we can increase the tax base by raising the minimum wage. Alright, let's raise it to $100 per hour! That should help the economy LOTS, right?

      No? What do you mean, it would cause inflation if we raised the minimum wage? Surely that wouldn't have an effect on Social Security, just because it is indexed to inflation?

      HINT: we cannot legislate prosperity. If raising Minimum Wage were all that were required to fix all economic problems, we would have done it long ago.

      #2. For the cost of the medicare system, we can publicize the whole thing and bring out Universal Health Care. Again overal this would create more a more efficent system, which basic economics says creates more jobs, meaning a higher tax base. As well, it would have a nice side-effect of fighting overseas job loss, as rising health care costs are a big motivator to move the jobs in the first place. Cut the parasites out.

      It's possible that nationalizing healthcare would lower costs. It's possible it would raise costs. What is certain is that if you replace Insurance Company bean-counters with Government bean-counters, it won't produce improved healthcare. Or do you believe that the Government bean-counters have your best interests at heart, as opposed to say, their own?

      #3. Make it official government policy to have as many people to work as possible. Current government policy is to maintain a certain unemployment rate to fight inflation. Get the people you need to do whatever jobs needed to be done. Sure it costs tax dollars. But with all the spinoff money of those jobs, the amount of taxes taken in will much more than account for the additional costs.

      Assuming we add all unemployed to the workforce today, that increases tax revenues by ~7% (if the unemployed all get jobs at the "average" income). Which isn't enough to make much dent in the CURRENT deficit, much less the deficit envisioned when the babyboom generation leaves the workforce.

      Yeah the corporations will bitch and scream. But it's pure survival folks. It's them or us.

      Interesting point of view. I take it you are self-employed? Because if you work for a corporation (I do, a small one, but incorporated it is), you might want to keep in mind that by raising costs for your employer to keep you employed, he might just decide he can't afford to pay you anymore.

      We exist in a symbiotic relation with "the corporations" (or "the rich") - if they fail to prosper, we will also fail to prosper. It's not US vs. THEM, it's us AND them....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  25. We are SO screwed.... by abb3w · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Problem is, real issues like Debt or Fiscal Policy aren't sexy enough to campaign.

    I'm afraid the problem is more basic than that.

    Anyone who spends any time doing enough study on this to grasp the scope of the problem will end scared out of their wits. If the candidates explain the issue to their constituents so that the voters start to understand, they will start to scare the voters out of their wits. The sheep in this country will be traumatized by this, and associate the trauma with the candidate explaining this. They will then usually change the channel to make the bad man go away. Whether they do or not, come the voting booth, Pavlovian conditioning ("aiigh! scary man!") will make them vote against the honest man.

    As Walter Mondale so memorably demonstrated, voters don't vote for people who tell them the bad news; they shoot the messenger. This, lamentably, may well set up a memorable demonstration of "evolution in action" as applied to societies.

    The problem may get scarier. I am not an Economist (and I'd be delighted if one can explain why I'm wrong), but according to my old ECON201 textbook, stagflation (inflation combined with slowing economy and job loss) is caused by economic shocks to the national aggregate supply curve-- IE, something suddenly causes making things to be more expensive. Government deficit spending can somewhat reduce the effects.

    Stagflation was first triggered in the 1970's by the rise in oil prices, coincident with OPEC tightening supply-- and, perhaps more importantly, the peak of the US oil production Hubbert Curve. The Reagan era's deficit spending (continuing to the present) helped make this problem disappear-- but not necessarily go away.

    Estimates for the peak of the global oil Hubbert curve are at 2010, plus or minus 10 years. (Yes, that means some people worry it has already peaked.) So, we'll be facing a global economic slowdown that reduces the US tax base, we'll have exhausted our ability to hide this via deficit spending, and we'll be facing this financial shortfall from needing to pay for the Boom going out to pasture.

    Oh... and the diminished likelihood in such an economy for those at lower income levels to earn enough for the necessities of life will result in increased numbers resorting to illegal means to do so... just to add widespread small scale mayhem to probable riots in the streets. With luck, though, we should be able to avoid a civil war fought with nuclear weapons. =|

    Now, where did I put that electronic thumb I borrowed from Ford Prefect....

    --
    //Information does not want to be free; it wants to breed.
  26. Responses: by CashCarSTAR · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Overall, the big problem I see with the economy, what entitles "success", and the expectation there-of. Basically, increasing profits as far as the eye can see, which frankly, has its limits.

    #1. I would suggest using a region based minimum wage based on some sort of scientific formula. Basically, add together all basic costs and add 10% or so for discretionary spending/saving and tie that in to a 140 hr/month work.

    Do that for individual areas, and it would make sure that people see the value of hard work and labour.

    #2. What you say is very true, which is why to make it happen it has to be done right. Generally speaking, in what's paid out in Medicare alone, on a per person basis, could pay for UHC for the whole country, with quite a bit of savings. That's the numbers and how they work out.

    #3. Actually it creates quite a bit more than 7%. Money doesn't get spent once and disappears. It keeps on spinning around, creating more demand for services, creating more demand for labour.

    In any case, it's more of a re-calibration of the economy than anything else into a service based economy. Eventually there will be enough money/jobs flowing around that government intervention will be minimal.

    I don't have anything against corporations. What I do have something against is the assumption that profits are infinate. As well, short-term thinking is the rule of the day, which is good for CEOs and their bonus checks, not so good for the average investor, worker, or citizen.

  27. Re:Not exactly being ignored by NoMoreNicksLeft · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Good idea. I want to be competing with 70 yr olds who have 45 years of experience. Young people have enough trouble finding decent jobs. Thanks Mr. AARP.

  28. Lets put this in Perspective... really by Anamanaman · · Score: 5, Informative

    Think about the debt in the same way you think about a mortgage.

    Say you buy $1,000,000 house with a loan. Your salary is $50,000. You are in trouble.

    Say you buy a $1,000,000 house with a loan. Your salary is $200,000. This is perfectly acceptable.

    The point is, just looking at the debt amount is meaningless. You also have to see what the income is to see if you are in debt trouble.

    Let's put this in the perspective of the national debt. The debt seems pretty large. However you need to look at the income. What is income? It's national GDP (gross domestic product). As our GDP goes up, so does our ability to sustain a larger debt.

    This is the one thing the deficit demagogues never mention. Our GDP has gone up dramatically over the last 20 years. So when looking at a national debt, first you need to adjust for inflation. Then you need to take the proportion of the debt compared to the gdp. Do this with our current national debt, you will realize that our debt is very manageable and much less than it was during Reagan and FDR.

    Here's a good graph of Debt vs GDP:
    http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

    So yeah, the debt is too high right now. No one disputes that. But its not the end of the world. The economy isnt going to collapse, even if our debt was double what it is now.

  29. These are the seeds of a far greater crash... by popo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Its not just social security either: Many economists now believe that the effect of baby boomers retiring will send shockwaves through every industry.

    Healthcare will not escape unscathed, as demand for limited and expensive drugs goes through the roof. The pressure to legislate away the basic economic problems of supply/demand will be near overwhelming -- and either big-pharm will become increasingly socialized, or radical restructuring of medical financing will be required.

    Housing and Real-Estate *will* crash as sure as night follows day when retiring baby-boomers, needing extra cash downsize into retirement communities. (Remember that almost 90% of high-end real estate is owned by boomers). The notion that real estate always goes up (while true in the long term) will be challenged by a 20 year downtrend as baby boomers' real estate assets inundate the market in an unprecedented deluge.

    And the list of impacts goes on and on... inheritance law, banking, education... everything is going to be affected by this -- the largest of population trends in the next 20 years.

    What's really scary are the downstream effects -- like what happens to Freddie and Fannie when the great boomer real-estate liquidation happens... but that's O.T.

    --
    ------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
  30. Advice to Boomers by rlp · · Score: 3, Funny

    A fellow boomer gave me pertinent advice that I feel obliged to share. Given the state of Social Security, corporate retirement plans, and post-dotcom bust 401K's, he recommends the following strategy: "Once a week eat a can of cat food. That way, by the time you retire, you'll be used to the taste".

    --
    [Insert pithy quote here]
  31. Bush is a flip-flopper by lorcha · · Score: 2, Informative
    The solution is very simple: cut spending, grow the economy, reform Social Security into private accounts. Bush is saying he'll do all those.
    In term 1, he ballooned spending, shrank the economy, and expanded Social Security welfare.

    The biggest problem with Bush is he is not a conservative! Why the hell do Republicans like him so?

    --
    "Avoid employing unlucky people - throw half of the pile of CVs in the bin without reading them." -- David Brent
  32. Actual land ownership by Bowling+Moses · · Score: 2, Informative

    I was curious about your claim about US Gov't land ownership so I did a little looking and found this site that tallies government land ownership, took that data and ran it through a spreadsheet. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, state and federal government ownership accounts for 34% of the land in states west of the Mississippi (including those states stradling the river). Including AK and HI the total goes up to 47%.

    The next question though is how much of this land is actually worth anything, since the states with the highest proportion of government land (Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Oregon are the top five by percent) tend to have the largest percentages of land that is worthless or nearly so. There's a whole lot of mountains, desert and arid plains in the west, and in Alaska there's less of the desert, but they make up for that with tundra and boreal forests. Sure there's some valuable resource-rich land out here, but extractive industries won't buy public lands that they already have rights to take resources out of. These two factors alone will likely make the total saleable goverment land plummet to a small fraction of the total government holdings. Some desireable lands will remain, but some portion will be in state and national parks and outside of the Libertarian party you'll find scant public support for selling those, dropping the saleable number even further.

  33. Pay your bill now, die early.... by sadomikeyism · · Score: 2, Interesting
    a) raising tax rates has NEVER increased tax revinues. Ever.

    b) I encourage as many baby boomers as possible to do their part for mother Earth and my paycheck by early euthanization. I'll miss some of you, but frankly, most of you are just dead weight to me. You boomers are responsible for this massive federal debt, our crushing bureaucracy and nanny state, and by the time I live long enough to enjoy any of it, it won't exist anymore, so F you very much.

    c) Did I mention that raising tax rates has never increased tax revinues?

    d) back to (b)

    --
    "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves