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SpaceShipOne to Attempt Second Flight on Monday

m_member writes "There is a very cool video of the recent SpaceShipOne flight (on the Scaled video page) as covered by Slashdot. It shows some angles not on the webcast and most impressively has internal footage from when the roll occurred in the ascent. There are no M&Ms this time but Melville takes a few holiday snaps!" Gogo Dodo writes "After a successful first flight for the X Prize, SpaceShipOne is a go for launch to claim the X Prize on Monday. Takeoff is at 7am Pacific, ignition at 8am." October 4 will be the anniversary of the Sputnik launch.

54 of 314 comments (clear)

  1. Congrats! by grape+jelly · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Congrats the the Scaled Composites team! While I hope the $10M prize will give you guys a nice shot in the arm, why not put it toward developing space travel for high-speed human transport rather than tourism? It just strikes me as something that's much more financially viable than tourism....

    1. Re:Congrats! by XaXXon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That really doesn't make sense. The $20M is gone. Period. Picking up $10M isn't losing money. It's making $10M you wouldn't otherwise have.

      If you paid $4 to drive over a toll bridge and there was a $2 bill lying there, would you not pick it up because it would still be net negative?

      It also means that they only have to find a way to make $10M profit to break even as opposed to $20M.

      Your comment really doesn't make any sense to me.

    2. Re:Congrats! by chromaphobic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Or, just that no human being had ever crossed that bridge before and you wanted to prove it could be done, and didn't care about the $2 or the $4.

    3. Re:Congrats! by Romeozulu · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not really sure I'd call Concorde a failure with 20+ years in service. Because of the cost, it's far from a huge success, but not exactly a failure.

      The biggest problem with Concorde was the noise issues that kept it some being deployed worldwide. Had it had been, economy of scale might have made it an economic success as well as a technical one.

      The 747 would have been a huge failure with so few planes only two routes.

    4. Re:Congrats! by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A quick note here, but Boeing had a large part to do with Concorde not flying over the Continental US. The US administration and the FAA had no qualms about sonic booms or supersonic flight over the continental US until the Boeing supersonic aircraft project failed, some years after concorde was finalised. A Boeing aircraft would have had exactly the same issues with regards to sound, but the FAA decided to ban supersonic flights across the US citing noise to be the issue. Boeing had been assured that this wouldnt have been a problem when approached by the Kennedy administration with regards to building a Concorde competitor. From where Im standing it looks decidedly like a case of "Not invented here".

  2. X-Prize, NASA Funding by Aceto3for5 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Does/Should the X-Prize Foundation get federal funding for the efforts they are making towards space travel? Certainly NASA could learn a thing or two about budgets from these space explorers. I think perhaps it is a better investment for the government to fund private groups like this, considering the results of the state-run programs.

    1. Re:X-Prize, NASA Funding by sql*kitten · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Does/Should the X-Prize Foundation get federal funding for the efforts they are making towards space travel?

      Err, do you actually want to get into space or not?

    2. Re:X-Prize, NASA Funding by System.out.println() · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think the entire purpose of the X-Prize is that it does NOT get government funding. commercial entities need to be self-sufficient here.

    3. Re:X-Prize, NASA Funding by robi2106 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Gahhhhhhhhhh!!! Not everything needs government funding!

      It shouldn't be some big tit that someone can just suck on for a little extra juice to keep on going (please tell that to the airlines & railroads...)

      Besides as other posters have said, it was desigend to be privte avoid all the stupid red tape.

      But your point about the state run groups is good. I would much rather have the fed hand out a contract to "develop X for us" with exclusive rights to the Fed, than have the Fed create a department to do "X".

      Of course, national security concerns says that if the Fed ownes and wholely controlls the development of "X" then there is no company that could possible sue them for breach of contract, or accidentally leak data / information to the press, or other nations.

      jason

  3. cool, now make if affordable and do it to orbit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I am glad they are a go! Best wishes to all involved.

    It is about time that we had someone other than Government make it to space. This should open up the market! Now, if they can just make this afforable to those of us who can't afford 100K or so...

    Hope they go for the $50M prize for a vehicle that will house 5 to/from orbit....

  4. Other competitors by UncleJam · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If SpaceShipOne reaches the 100km mark on Monday, will the other competitors just give in, or will they too try to prove that they have the design and technology to reach space? Even if SpaceShipOne did not launch Oct. 4th, would anybody even be close enough to take advantage of this? (Hoping that any failure of the SSO mission would not result in casulties)

    1. Re:Other competitors by idontgno · · Score: 4, Interesting
      I've wondered about this myself. There are a lot of teams, full of talented folks and brilliant ideas. The spur of competition (and a big purse) has been excellent, but what happens when that goes away? Are the other efforts going to dry up, or will they perhaps find other funding in the attempt to survive as a commercially-viable endeavor?

      It's kind of a shame, isn't it, that money keeps coming into it. But this rocket science stuff gets expensive. I just hope some of the really cool technology being looked at now finds whatever it takes to keep going. I really don't want to get stuck with just one type of commercial spacecraft, the same way we (in the US) has been stuck with only one type of government manned spacecraft. (Which has been the case, with the recent exception of buying flight time from the Russians.)

      --
      Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
    2. Re:Other competitors by zx75 · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Canadian DaVinci project has already stated that they are a couple weeks from launching, so if SpaceShipOne for some reason is unable to complete its bid for the X-prize in the next 2 weeks there is a possibility it could occur.

      In addition, they have stated that they will be proceeding with the launches regardless of whether the SpaceShipOne project succeeds in claiming the prize or not. Their goal is to prove that they can do it, even if they don't win the prize.

      --
      This is not a sig.
    3. Re:Other competitors by Kallahar · · Score: 3, Informative

      At the last launch, the X-Prize Foundation announced that they will be continuing the $10 mil prize every year, which will allow other teams to win the prize and give several different designs to the world.

    4. Re:Other competitors by deathcloset · · Score: 4, Insightful

      surely the other teams will continue to test their spacecraft.

      Especially as we now have the 50mil prize being offered for orbital flight.

      Sadly, these flights won't nab them that nice 10mil, but futher tests will certainly yield data that will help those who wish to pursue orbit (and I'm certain at least some do) in the development of thier orbital spacecraft.

      Furthermore, just because Rutan wins the prize and is first doesn't mean that he's developed all the best technology for private spacecraft.

      It seems likely that just the effort should yield some valuble research and technologies (which they might just sell to virgin galactic or scaled composites).

      It's too big an investment to just toss a spaceship in the trashbin.

    5. Re:Other competitors by TrippTDF · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They had better keep going... Number 1: They have all thrown tons of time/money into it. Number 2: This is JUST the first step. The X Prize was to kick the Private sector into gear and start a competition... it's not like the X Prize guys said "Hey Burt! We'll give you, and only you, $10 Mil to get to space!" No, they wanted to see copmetition. And not that competition is going to move into the investor market... Virgin made their stake in Scaled, and now that's going to make others kick in to onto the other competitors... Like with any new market, people will throw a ton of money into it, there will be a ton of new companies trying to get their business off the ground (no pun intended)... Think Dot-Com bubble... only this one (hopefully) won't end up the same way. I hope that in 50 years, the X-Prize is remembered as well as Scaled and SSO will be.

    6. Re:Other competitors by foolish · · Score: 3, Informative

      Can you find a reference? Because all I see is reference to the X-Prize Cup which is entirely different than a "X-Prize a year" concept.

      The X-Prize Cup is a bit more oriented towards "racing" team competition than as a stepping stone towards commercial space travel/tourism.

      Not that the racing concept isn't useful for publicity and development of parts of the playing field, but they aren't the same prizes.

  5. Peter Diamandis was heard saying by Neil+Blender · · Score: 5, Funny

    Damnit, where am I going to get 10 million dollars?

  6. Re:I hope they can do it without the spin-stabiliz by CriX · · Score: 5, Interesting

    One thing that's amazing is that Melvill turned off the rocket something like 40 seconds early!! I wonder if SS1 could survive the stresses of atmosphere reentry falling from 200km altitude.

    --
    Moderation: +1 pwnage
  7. Media Coverage by Plocmstart · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It'll be interesting to see how the media covers any potential problem that occurs this time. They hyped up the whole roll situation like it was the end of the world, even after he safely made it back down (a majority of the questions asked of him were about the unexpected roll). Gotta love how reporters constantly repeat nearly the same question when they don't really understand the situation....

    1. Re:Media Coverage by ctwxman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The roll showed inherent design problems with this particular spacecraft. No one seriously believes Mike Melville mistakenly kicked it into the corkscrew. Now that they have commercial contracts to carry passengers (with Richard Branson) spinning is not good for business. Dick Rutan will find a way to have this craft go up once more, a new (modified) design will be built which fixes this instability and SpaceShipOne will go to the Smithsonian before it hurts anyone. I can't commend Rutan's team enough, but this is an experimental craft in a rush to fly. There will be problems - that's why a test pilot was at the controls. The press (where I work) has a right and obligation to question this part of the flight. Rutan already has PR specialists to slavishly praise.

    2. Re:Media Coverage by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Funny

      a majority of the questions asked of him were about the unexpected roll

      Media: "Can you please comment on the repeated rolls in which you kept rolling around and around and around in a dizzying, girating, spiraling, stomach-spinning fashion as if it would never end?" (making spinning hand-gestures)

      Pilot: "Bwwaaaaarrrrrf" (splat)

    3. Re:Media Coverage by el-spectre · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Question, and apparently draw conclusions based on knee-jerk analysis. MANY otherwise sound craft have experienced unexpected behavior (including rolls) because of pilot error or overcorrection.

      This is why they use test pilots. These guys know how to recover when things go bad.

      You are right that the press has an obligation to investigate. But BEFORE that, you need to make sure you know what the hell you are talking about. The ability to publish does not prove the ability to speak authoritatively on the subject.

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
    4. Re:Media Coverage by el-spectre · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So, one of the best aeronautical engineers, and a damned good pilot BOTH share the same opinion, but unnamed folks on the ground disagree... yup, solid reporting there.

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
    5. Re:Media Coverage by iabervon · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It may also turn out that the corkscrew is not a problem and keeps the craft pointed in the right direction, similar to how rifling improves the accuracy of bullets. It might just look disturbing to the people on the ground, and not upset the pilot or passengers. If you recall, the test run had two instabilities at that point in the flight, and rolling was the less hazardous one. I wouldn't be surprised if Melvill let it spin, rather than correcting, to keep it from doing anything else.

      For that matter, if a part detatched from a spinning launch vehicle, it would be (slightly) more likely to fly clear of the vehicle, rather than hitting the vehicle further back.

  8. Video mirrors by Rupan · · Score: 4, Informative

    I have to go out right now, but when I return (soon) I will have the videos mirrored on my website here: http://www.css-auth.com/ss1/ Perhaps within the hour.

    --
    Ads? What ads?
  9. Holiday snaps? by bludstone · · Score: 3, Funny

    Could be taken on a holiday.

    Photographs, ey? He asked him knowingly... ..but still.. WOOOAAAHHHhhh

    --

    no .sig
  10. Re:That's hot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    There is a mirror at mirrordot ... ;) http://www.mirrordot.org/

  11. Re:I hope they can do it without the spin-stabiliz by f00zy · · Score: 4, Informative

    It was more like 11 seconds.
    CNN story

  12. Have we heard anything official... by MarcoAtWork · · Score: 3, Interesting

    about what exactly caused the roll last time? Given that now they had time go to through the telemetry data one assumes they would know for sure exactly what happened: did they make the info public?

    --
    -- the cake is a lie
    1. Re:Have we heard anything official... by m_member · · Score: 4, Informative

      I think it was announced that it was wind shear which caused the roll on the first flight.

    2. Re:Have we heard anything official... by Tablizer · · Score: 3, Funny

      what exactly caused the roll

      He dropped his Snickers Bar on the floor, and had to feel around to find it. I have this problem all the time when I don't have a passenger to help me find my Snickers. Complicating the matter is that what is the "floor" changes when going into space. Never know where a Snickers can end up.

  13. I wonder... by Pig+Hogger · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Almost 50 years ago, the X-15 basically had the same capabilities as Spaceship One's.

    What were the development costs of the X-15 program???

    1. Re:I wonder... by Lumpy · · Score: 3, Funny

      What were the development costs of the X-15 program???

      60 bucks and a couple of Jiffy-pop packages.

      it's a little known secret that when you expose a Jiffy-pop package to microwave energy it's resulting expansion act's like a very powerful rocket.

      The military took advantage of that side effect and used it to win a bar bet against the German V-II rocket engineers who said that they could not make it to space on popcorn power.

      It's amazing what you discover about history using the freedom of information Act.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
  14. Robust design by mdp1173 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually, the method SpaceShipOne uses to re-enter the atmosphere is pretty robust and safe. Most times, entry vehicles use a blunt end - think the bottom of the Apollo capsule - to slow down through a process called 'aerobraking'. If a vehicle starts to spin rapidly during that time, bad things happen. SSO can enter the atmosphere in any orientation - nose down, nose up, sideways - and it will be OK because of it's back wing surface. In an orientation the Scaled guys call "feathering" the back end flips up 90 degrees in a high drag configuration. This forces the nose into the atmosphere at the right angle, so spinning isn't a vehicle loss issue Still, you go a lot slower re-entering from a suborbital flight than an orbital speed re-entry a la Columbia circa 2003

  15. BitTorrent download by TheSHAD0W · · Score: 5, Informative

    Download video via BitTorrent at X-Prize-flight-1.wmv.torrent

  16. Re:Mike Melville rolled it on purpose! by Nick+Driver · · Score: 3, Interesting

    You're not the only one suspecting that he did intend to perform a one or two turn roll... and that the roll turned out to be vastly more intense than he bargained for... maybe due to the lack of atmospheric friction against the aircraft in the roll. A little control input perhaps goes a loooooong way in this craft, once beyond the point where there is no more atmospheric drag.

  17. Come on guys, start caching stuff... by Black.Shuck · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...with FreeCache or Coral.

    Or just make it Slashdot-policy to use the past-tense when describing off-site content, like this:

    Before: "There is a very cool video..."
    After: "There was a very cool video..."

    Kind of pre-empts the whole /. effect, don't you think?

    It would be great to start moving away from the whole organised-DDOS attack thing...

  18. ./ed already by trilks · · Score: 3, Funny

    From the site:

    "(sorry slashdot.org visitors, overloaded...start a bittorrent feed?)"

    How did they know we were coming?

    --
    You won't hate yourself in the morning if you don't get up before noon.
    1. Re:./ed already by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      because the webmaster reads slashdot. ;)

      And also when you try to load your own website and it takes 30 seconds to load the main page, this is the first place you look. Well, I'll post the torrent mirror link right now, that will help. There's three machines in a round robin, but the port only has so much bandwidth. :)

      --Mike the webmaster

  19. Re:I thought they had to carry 3 people? by Thomas+A.+Anderson · · Score: 3, Informative

    They do have to carry 3 people, or the pilot and weight of 2 passangers (probably used sand bags).

    BTW, Burt Rutan mentioned just after the last flight that he might be a passenger in the next one.

    --
    Personally its not God I dislike, its his fan club I cant stand (bash.org)
  20. Yes, consider the results of the state-run program by 2nd+Post! · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We got to the moon. And back. Multiple times.
    We sent probes to Mars. And Venus. And beyond. And some of them still work.
    We sent rovers to Mars. That still work.
    We built several working space vehicles.
    We space-walked.
    We build a space station. And then we built another one.
    We chased comets. And sent the collected materials back.
    We've populated our solar system with several probes that have performed beyond expectation.
    We have Tang.
    We have titanium hips, golf clubs, glass frames, laptops, and spyplanes.

    There are many, many, more places where our investment into NASA has benefitted us enormously.

  21. Lesson #1: Use FreeCache by Matthew+Angel · · Score: 3, Insightful

    - Videos -
    Oct 01 11am - VIDEOS TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE (sorry slashdot.org visitors, overloaded...start a bittorrent feed?)

    So instead of just everyone jumping all over their site directly, why not use FreeCache first, especially when you know the video is 5.7 megs and it'll be popular...

    (sig)^-1 ... is that sag?

  22. Canadian Arrow Team by uberdave · · Score: 4, Informative

    The Canadian Arrow team has put together the world's first private astronaut training centre. If they were only in it for the X-Prize, they wouldn't have built the training centre. They are looking to space tourism, and are also hoping to start a new extreme sport: Space-diving (like sky-diving, except from space).

  23. Re:I hope they can do it without the spin-stabiliz by DaHat · · Score: 3, Informative

    The heat due to reentry has less to do with the altitude and more to do with the actual speed at impact.

    Objects that reach orbital velocity are going far faster and thus generate far more heat then something that effectively goes straight up and straight down such as SpaceShipOne (relative to something like the space shuttle that does achieve orbit).

  24. Re:Yes, consider the results of the state-run prog by Tanktalus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I suppose the big question is ... if NASA instead were merely a contracting arm of the goverment which put together specs for tender, would we have gotten further, faster, and cheaper?

    And let's not forget the human cost: would we have lost similar or fewer people doing it (safety)?

    No, really. I'm serious. This is not intended as a slam against government waste or corporate cost/corner cutting. It's really a question for thought. Is there a middle ground available where we get the same safety, but further/faster/cheaper?

    Contractors would need to be able to find ways to compete against others for the research business. There are some things that competition is good for. But, then again, with only one possible customer at the time (NASA), would there be enough competition for those dollars? Now might be a much better time (than, say, the 1950's) to thin out NASA, spin off JPL, and then have NASA merely contract out: the competition will be competing for business from much more than NASA - airlines will be interested in some of this technology, too, I'm sure.

  25. Resting on your laurels is counterproductive by dillon_rinker · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We sailed to England. And back. Multiple times.
    We sent messengers to Persia. And India. And beyond.
    We sent caravans to India. We still trade with them.
    We built several working sailing ships.
    We swam in the sea.
    We colonized a tiny island. And then we colonized another one.
    We chased whales. And sent the collected materials back.
    We've sent our driftwood around the world on the ocean's currents.
    We have spice.
    We have gunpowder, algeabra, paper, Arabic numerals, and modern surgery.

    THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO NEED FOR US TO FINANCE THIS FLEET OF YOURS, COLUMBUS!!!

  26. Re:I hope they can do it without the spin-stabiliz by cmowire · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Well, because it's harder than you think.

    Remember, he's got a stick for subsonic flight. He's got trim for supersonic flight. And then he's got thrusters for space usage. Plus backup systems, which you have to know when they should be activated. So it can't just be an off-the-shelf system.

    The thing is, if you *needed* the autopilot, you'd need to have redundancy and reliability and whatnot. If you don't *need* the autopilot, it's an added expense, a waste of time, and it takes up weight that can be used for something else. So, for an experimental aircraft that's going to be flown by Scaled's best pilots, why not?

    The other problem is that the main folks who have an off-the-shelf flight computer that would be suitable is the Air Force. Who obviously isn't going to sell one to "just anyone", which means that an X-prize contender can't have it.

  27. Re:Or 1 + equivalent weight by voidptr · · Score: 4, Informative

    They could put tickets for the two additional seats on E-bay

    No, actually they couldn't.

    N328KF is registered as an experimental glider. Under Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) that means two things:

    a) You can't carry passengers at all until the craft has been satisfactorily flight tested.
    b) You can never carry passengers for hire.

    Whether or not at this point SSO has been flight tested is up to the FAA. It's usually about 40 hours of testing, and I have no clue whether they've put that much time on the airframe at this point or not and whether the FAA inspector is happy with the suborbital flight tests they've done. In any event, they won't be able to recover costs from passengers until they develop a certificated platform.

    --
    This .sig for unofficial government use only. Official use subject to $500 fine.
  28. Video Mirror Up, with MPEG conversion (soon) by IdahoEv · · Score: 3, Informative

    Ecliptic Enterprises, who makes the onboard videocamera used for much of that footage, has two mirrors of the video footage:

    RocketCam (TM) Videos

    RocketCam (TM) Video Mirror at RocketCam.Space.TV

    MPEG and QT conversions of the WMV will be going up in a few minutes, as well, for all you linux and mac users. (As of 12:30pm PST, should be up by 1:00PST/4:00EST).

    Disclaimer: I'm Ecliptic's webmaster by subcontract.

    Enjoy.

    -Ev

    --
    I stole this sig from someone cleverer than me.
  29. Re:I hope they can do it without the spin-stabiliz by pragma_x · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The other problem is that the main folks who have an off-the-shelf flight computer that would be suitable is the Air Force. Who obviously isn't going to sell one to "just anyone", which means that an X-prize contender can't have it.

    That's probably no coincidence since a "spacecraft" with an autopilot, is basically an explosive device short of a missile. There may be some heavy federal legislation involving the private production of such systems let alone the government not wanting to share such technology with just anyone.

    Just a thought.

  30. Re:I hope they can do it without the spin-stabiliz by dinodrac · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Given Bert Rutan's history with experemental aircraft, and the things that can go wrong with automated controls, fully manual flight controls only make sense. By keeping the controls simple, and by having avionics that tell the pilot what to do rather than do it for him, they reduce the expense, while improving pilot safety. Look at all thats gone wrong with NASA's massively redundant computer systems - if the flight computer on spaceshipone completely fails, chances are the pilot will still land the craft safely, and may even be able to complete the mission safely.

  31. Dead end hacks by Phil+Karn · · Score: 4, Interesting
    I wish Rutan et al well, but this whole X-Prize thing bothers me.

    If these guys were investigating and developing a radical new technology that's orders of magnitude cheaper than the traditional ways of getting into space, then it would be really interesting. Even a stunt like the X-Prize shot would be worthwhile to help develop it. But it's not radical new technology. It's just the same old chemical rocket stuff all over again. With a lot of cut corners. (And, apparently, "unscripted maneuvers").

    And they're not even particularly good chemical rockets. Hybrid rockets burning plastic/rubber/etc and N2O have inherently poorer performance than, say, the hydrogen/oxygen engines that are common on the upper stages of orbital launchers. Hybrids are simpler, cheaper and safer, and they've become very popular among amateur high-power rocketeers for this reason. They're fun. But they just don't have the performance for a practical orbital launcher, as opposed to a suborbital "stunt" flight. Or is "commercial manned space" just about quickie zero-g joyrides for people with too much money? I can already experience zero-g on an airplane or Six Flags' Superman: The Escape a lot more cheaply.

    The problem is that there just don't seem to be any radical, new technologies promising to cut space access costs by orders of magnitude just waiting for entrepreneurs to commercialize them. And that means only a tiny handful of humans will ever be able to go into space in our lifetime, and for at least several more. I wish it were otherwise, but we have to face facts. In the meantime, we have to get the very most out of the expensive launchers we do have, and that means putting more and more capable robots into space to give us earthbound humans the best vicarious experience of space travel we can possibly get.

    I'm also really put off by all this "go private enterprise, rah rah rah" stuff, as if NASA is full of complete idiots. (It got so thick the other morning that I had to turn the TV volume down.) Who do they think builds the rockets that NASA has been flying for decades? What about the many space launchers that have already been fully commercialized? And where did the money for SpaceShipOne really come from? (Hint: what if the US Government were to actually enforce its antitrust laws against large software companies?)

    If you've got the money, you can already buy a launch from any of several commercial companies, and only some of them are American. And there are companies who routinely launch stuff and make money. Space is already big business.

    But when I look at SpaceShipOne and similar projects, I see a bunch of rich guys publicly stroking their egos. SpaceShipOne is a dead-end hack. I'd actually be completely okay with that if only they would be more honest with the public about what they're really doing.

  32. Re:Good hacks by Teancum · · Score: 4, Insightful

    *Sigh*

    The average person "on the street" frankly is totally clueless about what is even happening. Frankly, they are asking the average geek/nerd/astro guy they happen to know and ask them just what all this hoopla is really all about, and wondering why the geek is wetting his pants. (well, some of them at least)

    This is a cool thing, and credit should be given where credit is due. With the announcement of the "America's Prize" (I guess yet to be announced) a new round in the competition for going into space will soon be at hand. If you are correct about Space Ship One, that Burton Rutan can't get it (or a similar ship) into orbit, then it looks like Armadillo Aerospace and the Romanians are going to be much more in the running for that prize.

    The ships from those two groups appear to be more upgradeable to make it to orbit, although I would have to agree that reentry issues have not been fully explored. Still, there are a number of private groups now that have working propulsion systems going, and have been at least sending things up a few hundred feet, if not more, and are dealing with scalability issues as well.

    I appreciate the fact that the X-Prize has set the tone of the current attitude toward space exploration. While it is more than likely driving nails into the coffin of NASA, there is much more to what is happening in the space industry than even cute rocket stunts. And don't think the big aerospace companies aren't paying attention to what is going on either.

    Right now the rocket industry is in a renasannce that looks very much like the early days of the automobile industry or the early aviation industry. There are a couple of very well financed companies (like XCOR, for example) that I would be surprised if they went belly up, but still anything is possible. Boeing certainly struggled in their early days when they were first starting out, and it was a construction team smaller than Armadillo Aerospace, with far less financial backing.

    I predict that private commercial space enterprises (like Virgin Galactic) will be within 10 years bringing in more cashflow than the entire computer industry. One reason in particular is because there is much more room to grow into space than there is for the computer industry to penetrate into 3rd World nations. Private space companies "going public" will be the next darling on Wall Street, and will create the next round of Billionaires for those who are getting in right now.