DIY Polling Shows Bush, Kerry Will Win

cheese_wallet writes "7-eleven has a poll conducted by the choice of cup their customers pick for their coffee. They can pick a Kerry cup, a Bush cup, or a Third Party/No Opinion cup (interesting combo). Although it is considered completely unscientific, it polls millions of people and gets past the cell phone barrier. You can see the current stats." And reader Noryungi writes "This is very tongue-in-cheek... Harry's Bar, in Paris (France) has been conducting straw polls for the past 80 years, and has been wrong only once, in 1976. So... who is the winner, according to Harry's Bar poll, for the 2004 US election? Kerry. And not by small numbers either, Kerry wins 56% to 44% in the latest Straw Vote, which is a larger margin than all the other US-based pollsters."

Comments

Kerry Wins in France

[christopherfinke]

Kerry's polling well in France? You don't say!

Re:Kerry Wins in France

[Breakfast Pants]

At my bar in Texas Bush is the predicted winner.

Polls biased

[SoCalChris]

The 7-11 by me only had Bush cups a few days ago.

Either they were trying to swing the poll, or they had sold out of the Kerry cups.

I'm guessing it's the latter, since I live in a fairly liberal area, and all of the local stop signs have been modified to read:

"STOP
BUSH"

high numbers

[Doc Ruby]

According to the coffee-poll site, Kerry + Bush (48.89 + 51.11%) = 100%, but they have 3rd option. No one chose it? Maybe I'm just bitter about corporate sponsored polls, but 7-11's poll seems pretty dicey.

Extensive polling in my household

[BandwidthHog]

Every morning before work (if I'm not running too terribly late) I ask myself who I plan to vote for.

So far Kerry's numbers look very good, while Dubya appears likely to be filing for unemployment soon.

Sure, the sample size leaves something to be desired, but I feel my methods are *at least* as accurate as polling drunk expats in Paris.

Re:Point less.

[Narkov]

...and how is that any different to election day? Vote early, vote often I say :)

Electoral college

[moosesocks]

Let's assume that the straw poll only takes into account the fact that a 56 - 44 popular vote could still result in a win for Bush in the electoral college.

The 7/11 poll is disturbingly evenly split. The difference is so small that voting irregularities could easily constitute the margin.

Also you have to take into consideration the fact that even if this survey was done on a large enough and evenly dispersed population to be accurate and that everyone voted truthfully, NOT EVERYONE WILL VOTE. Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.

These three things alone will determine our election.

Re:Electoral college

[BandwidthHog]

Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.

All I know is that if Bush wins, I will be spending the next four years tracking down democratic voters who didn't vote and beating them savagely with a dead trout.

Keep that in mind next Tuesday, punks.

Harmful

[Sponge Bath]

These kind of unscientific polls are often misinterpreted by the masses and can demoralize potential voters. This is clearly biased against the most deserving candidate.

Nader ALL THE WAY baby! YEAAAHHH!

Man... that's good pot.

Unfortunately ...

[BlueSteel]

Unfortunately for Kerry, the children's Weekly Reader poll says otherwise.

Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history.

... I always knew I didn't like kids.

Re:Unfortunately ...

[flyingsquid]

Check your current events:

"A videotape made by a television crew with American troops when they opened bunkers at a sprawling Iraqi munitions complex south of Baghdad shows a huge supply of explosives still there nine days after the fall of Saddam Hussein, apparently including some sealed earlier by the International Atomic Energy Agency." -nytimes.com

In other words, just what the Iraqis said. The explosives went missing after the 9th, after US troops arrived- the first US troops arrived at Al Qaqaa on the 3rd. The video- which shows boxes and barrels of high explosives in a sealed bunker- was taken on the 18th.

Assuming (against all evidence) the expplosives really had gone missing earlier, it would be surprising if the Bush administration couldn't prove it: the reconnaissance should be good enough to pick up the 40 or so large trucks it would take to move a stash like that. It also ignores the fact that even if they had moved them, the Bush administration still should have secured those explosives wherever they ended up, and should not have stood by to let Iraqis loot weapons depots. The Bush administration's primary problem is that it simply denies reality and accountability. The sad thing is that so many Americans are perfectly happy with this situation.

Demographic breakdown

[Intocabile]

According to 7-11, Bush cup supporters enjoy their coffee with plenty of rich cream and sugar, while Kerry cup supporters prefered they're coffee black or opted for a more international blend. With less the one percent of the cup vote third party cups remained unused, cup voters instead opted for their homemade organic root-marm. When asked about the poll Bush was quoted as saying, "Juan Valdez is a true patriot. Never forget 7-11... er I mean 911." The Kerry camp simply stated, "most young americans don't drink coffee, do you have any questions not related to coffee." Ralph Nader popular third party candidate had this to say. "Corporate America is pulling a fast one at the expense of the American consumer once again with cofee lids that could easily pop off scalding thousands, blinding hundreds."

Re:Demographic breakdown

[flyingsquid]

Meanwhile, Republicans prevented black people from entering 7-11s across the nation, as Democrats furiously worked to keep Ralph Nader cups out of the stores...