2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

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2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

Posted by CmdrTaco on Monday December 27, 2004 @07:56AM from the duck-and-cover dept.

bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."

27 of 697 comments (clear)

Space Soap Opera by daniil · 2004-12-27 07:57 · Score: 5, Funny

Ladies and gentlemen, may i present the new Slashdot soap opera: Asteroid 2004 MN4!!! That's right -- we have ourselves a new SCO! Watch out, for soon, it'll be demanding $699 license fees from all of you!

--
Man is a slave because freedom is difficult, whereas slavery is easy.
1. Re:Space Soap Opera by tambo · 2004-12-27 08:01 · Score: 3, Funny
  
  Ladies and gentlemen, may i present the new Slashdot soap opera: Asteroid 2004 MN4!!!
  ...with the requisite theme song of course:
  That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane - Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - world serves its own needs, don't misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock, speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height, down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population, common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched.
  It's the end of the world as we know it.
  It's the end of the world as we know it.
  It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
  Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign tower. Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself churn. Lock him in uniform and book burning, blood letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate. Light a candle, light a motive. Step down, step down. Watch a heel crush, crush. Uh oh, this means no fear - cavalier. Renegade and steer clear! A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives and I decline.
  It's the end of the world as we know it.
  It's the end of the world as we know it.
  It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
  The other night I tripped a nice continental drift divide. Mount St. Edelite. Leonard Bernstein. Leonid Breshnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs. Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You symbiotic, patriotic, slam, but neck, right? Right.
  It's the end of the world as we know it.
  It's the end of the world as we know it.
  It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...fine...
  (It's time I had some time alone)
  
  --
  Computer over. Virus = very yes.
2. Re:Space Soap Opera by Anonymous Coward · 2004-12-27 08:36 · Score: 3, Funny
  
  The asteroid needs it own icon. Now.
The odds are now at 100% by waynegoode · 2004-12-27 07:59 · Score: 5, Funny

The odds of it hitting Earth are now at 100%.
Or, if you prefer, they are now at 1 in 1,000,000.
This edition of Fun With URLs has been brought to you courtesy of an overly trusting NASA webmaster.
1. Re:The odds are now at 100% by glomph · 2004-12-27 08:22 · Score: 4, Funny
  
  Yeah, Ron the Webmaster is overly trusting, he has his email address directly linked on that 'probability' page. Guess he was trying for maximum impact....
Doomed...? by Boronx · 2004-12-27 08:00 · Score: 5, Funny

Will Bruce Willis even by alive by then?

--
Play Command HQ online
1. Re:Doomed...? by KUHurdler · 2004-12-27 08:30 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  No, the climax of the whole movie is that he was already dead. That's why only the kid could see him.
  
  --
  Fix Your Own TV - RiddledTV.com Avoid the Landfill
2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Keep Inch Up Again by teshuvah · 2004-12-27 08:00 · Score: 3, Funny

I are not under stand what you is try ing to said hear.
By how things are going... by DarkHelmet · 2004-12-27 08:02 · Score: 5, Funny

That gives slashdotters...
24 more years to try and get laid.

--
/^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
1. Re:By how things are going... by isa-kuruption · 2004-12-27 08:05 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  Stop flaming and/or giving us false hope!
Anarchy! by Lussarn · 2004-12-27 08:03 · Score: 5, Funny

When can we start the looting?
Assuming everyone dies... by KaiBeezy · 2004-12-27 08:03 · Score: 4, Funny

this is more likely to kill you than ANY OTHER death due to injury in your lifetime!

Odds of Death Due to Injury, National Safety Council
Re:April 13, 2029 by glitch! · 2004-12-27 08:03 · Score: 5, Funny

Would this be Friday the 13th?

That's right, Hot Fudge Sundae arrives on a Friday...

--
A dingo ate my sig...
When to Worry by mikejz84 · 2004-12-27 08:04 · Score: 4, Funny

I would start to worried if astronomers suddenly started to buy a lot of Boeing and Lockheed stock.
Re:Friday the 13th, part xxxxx by 14erCleaner · 2004-12-27 08:06 · Score: 5, Funny

On the bright side, this does solve the 2038 rollover of the 32-bit time_t.

--
Have you read my blog lately?
HA! by jrwillis · 2004-12-27 08:08 · Score: 4, Funny

1 in 37? Who'd be dumb enough to worry with odds like that?! Now excuse me, I need to go buy a lottery ticket for this week.

--
Keep Austin Weird!
I really appreciate your sig line more by way2trivial · 2004-12-27 08:09 · Score: 5, Funny

due to your EXCELLENT math skills.

--
every day http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random
Re:Mainstream coverage by SpaceLifeForm · 2004-12-27 08:16 · Score: 5, Funny

Well of course. Until they figure out a way to make some money off of it.
Asteroid insurance anyone?

--
You are being MICROattacked, from various angles, in a SOFT manner.
Sound betting advice by nizo · 2004-12-27 08:16 · Score: 4, Funny

If you ever get a chance to bet on an asteroid wiping out humanity, make sure you bet that it won't; otherwise even if you win you can't collect.

--
I Am My Own Worst Enemy
Crash by pete-classic · 2004-12-27 08:17 · Score: 4, Funny

And I thought the last crash of '29 was depressing.

-Peter
Chain asteroid by iMaple · 2004-12-27 08:26 · Score: 5, Funny

How long do we have to wait for this

Hi
I am Prince Okabaoakauu of of the microbial strain found on Asteroid Mn4. We control the motion of our asteroid and can divert it safely if the earthlings wish so. However we are not sure if the earthlings(a.k.a. you) want a collision or not. Hence to help us decide , please forward this mail to 12 people within 1 hour of receiving the mail if you do not want a collision. You will also get a free mobile phone and 2 Ipods. If you do NOT immediately forward this email we will assume that you want the collision.
Thanks

I JUST RECVD THIS MAIL, PLS FWD IT TO ALL UR FRIENDS
Re:We're all gonna die! by glassjaw+rocks · 2004-12-27 08:37 · Score: 4, Funny

Here's something odd. April 13, 2029 is a Friday. Friday the 13th is the end of the world.

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-gjr
Re:Friday the 13th, part xxxxx by ViolentGreen · 2004-12-27 08:41 · Score: 4, Funny

Plus, if you addd the digits in 13, you get 4 (April being the fourth month of the year.) On top of that if, you subtract 4 (month) and 13 (day) from 2029 and add those digits, you get 5 which is amazingly the same number that you get when you sum the digits in 202 and subtract that from 9.

Point being, well actually I have no point.

--
Not everything is analogous to cars. Car analogies rarely work.
Three days ahead of the tax deadline. by Dr.+Mu · 2004-12-27 09:02 · Score: 3, Funny

The IRS income tax deadline in 2029 will be Monday, April 16th. I think, perhaps, I'll file for an extension that year.
Impact effect of a grain of salt. by JeanPaulBob · 2004-12-27 09:02 · Score: 4, Funny
Numbers should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt
As you suggest, I ran the figures for a grain of salt through the impact effects calculator.

Specifically, I used a 0.0003 meter grain of salt with a density of 2165 kg/m^3 (suggested by the I'm Feeling Lucky result for how big is a grain of salt) at 17km/s and 45 degree impact, and dropped it in 1000 meters of water.

Results
- Impact Energy: This projectile is so small that it burns up during atmospheric traverse
- Crater Formed in Seafloor: Are you kidding?
- Earthquake: It burns up in the freakin' atmosphere!
- Radiant Flux at 100 km: You're an idiot.
I really don't see what you're so worried about.
Re:Impact energy by Broiler · 2004-12-27 09:06 · Score: 3, Funny

I knew it! That is why I sit in my shack in Wyoming writing manifestos!

--
My sigs offend the max # of people all over the world, regardless of race, religion, color, sex or creed. It's a gift.
Free Tacos? by telemonster · 2004-12-27 09:25 · Score: 3, Funny

Does everyone in the world get a free Taco if it hits a Taco Bell?

--
Southeastern Virginia REPRESENT!