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Why Microsoft Should Fear Bandwidth
Mike writes "Microsoft should fear increasing bandwidth to the consumer more than any other single factor as a threat to their monopoly. The average user has no desire to be the sysadmin of their machine(s), and telcos and cable companies would be glad to take this task from them -- for a nominal fee, of course, as application service providers. The PC as we know it probably only has a decade or so left."
when cars fly.
The force that blew the Big Bang continues to accelerate.
are you kidding? Microsoft would love this (and I think they've already tried). Just think, instead of all those pirated copies of Office, you would have to actually pay to use it from your "application provider"
Some people may be happy with just a dumb terminal as it does reduce the maintenance headaches of running a pc.
However I'm not sure I would want any company to have that level of control over my desktop system. Not to mention having all of my apps and data held hostage to a subscription fee.
People have been predicting the death of PCs since PCs were invented, but it hasn't happened yet. Anybody remember when network computers were supposed to be the next big thing?
I think there is one thing that will make MS be happy with lots o' bandwidth - TV over IP. They own lots of patents in conjuction with it and started really developing after they realized that one monopoly (cable TV providers) doesn't like another (MS). Ignorance of the Internet by MS is so '90s - they had the money to make up for their ignorance.
"You need a license to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp." - Red Green
For those who didn't read the article, the reason why Microsoft should fear bandwidth is that control of the computers will be turned over from the home user to a remote company. That is a good enough reason in its own right, but there are other reasons for MS to fear high-bandwidth connections. People stuck on a dial-up are less likely to be able to download Linux and other OSS. The propogation(sp?) rate of viruses, worms and other malware greatly increases because always-on connections spread them constantly - and quicker, which helps to highlight weaknesses in Windows.
http://unelite.freelinuxhost.com - Rock/Scissors/Paper and RPGs shouldn't mix.
I'm the author the article. The "network is the computer" was a false start because the bandwidth was not there. Now, it is getting to be there -- and with spam, spyware, adware, phishing schemes, increasing viruses, the average user is way out of his league in dealing with the challenges of modern computing. Long past are the days where one could leave a Windows 98 machine (or Windows 2000, or XP, take your pick) connected to the Internet for days at a time, unpatched. My point, which I should have made clearer, is that the "network-is-the-computer" approach didn't work because the bandwidth simply was not there. Now it is getting to be. With spyware, adware, malware of all stripes dominating the news, and the average user's computer, people will be much more inclined now and in the near future to use an ASP model. I hope that clarifies my arguments a bit.
I've heard people say things like this before... oh, you just wait, when somebody invents a fantabulous operating system and gives it away for free, THEN Microsoft will come tumbling down. Just another one of those craaaazy-talkers.
I just heard some sad news on slashdot - the Personal Computer will be found dead in ten years time. There weren't any more details. I'm sure everyone in the Slashdot community will miss the PC - even if you didn't enjoy its work, there's no denying its contributions to slashdot culture. Truly a global icon.
The PC as we know it probably only has a decade or so left.
Boy am I tired of this old chestnut.
If anything, adding bandwidth or any other features or functionality will only serve to keep the PC around longer - the more it can do, the more reasons you have to have one. Your PC can now edit movies, be a mutlimedia station, a jukebox, a gaming console...and as it begins to compete in these new areas, devices that used to provide these services are going away. If anything is going away, it's your VCR player or your DVD player. Or your 5 CD changing stereo. Next, it's probably your TV.
And the PC can't be replaced in some ways. Exactly how are you going to program on your PS2? Ever tried surfing the web on an iPaq? The PC solves certain kinds of problems exactly perfectly, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon.
In fact, I used to work at an engineering firm that made StrongARM platforms for embedded Linux and WindowsCE. Our CEO's business strategy was that the "death of the PC has begun", and we were ready to step in and fill the void.
They're bankrupt now.
Weaselmancer
rediculous.
A real life comparison could be easily made here.
50 years ago when car's were expensive and walking was the norm downtown's thrived. After cars became cheaper and roads led everywhere the malls tore into the business the downtown core had thrived on. We now see big box stores killing downtown's everywhere.
Microsoft is as 'big box' as they come.......while there is no doubt that strategies behind operating systems and the internet will meld together I don't see it as a reason to see Microsoft to not be a prominent part of that.
short: my whole world is vnc. I live in it. it works.
.11g cards, etc). and vncviewer sitting on top of XP on top of gig-ethernet - its QUITE a good 'thin client'. really, its extremely fast - faster than vncviewer sitting on top of X11 on top of any unix. the vnc client-over-XP is fast enough that with a point to switched gig-e or even fastEther connection between the client (xp) and server (freebsd) - when I move windows opaquely around on my 'desktop' its damned near as fast as a local move.
longer: I have a freebsd server that is up 7x24. it holds my 'state'. my desktop and all the windows (xterms, browsers, debug windows, whatever). its in my 'server room' which I allow to be a bit noisier and I can close the door off, etc.
in the living areas, I can use 'floating' laptops or a desktop in the living room. that one usually runs XP since XP talks well enough to its connected hardware (ethernet cards, video cards,
other advantage: I can have multiple viewers (even with write access) on at the same time. the laptop in the bedroom on wireless can see the same persistent desktop that the living room XP/gig-e client sees. I can enable power-saving on the desktops and laptops (works well in XP) and have the clients auto shutdown or hibernate after a timeout. I simply press the power switch and come back from hiber (very fast) and re-run vncviewer and bingo - my old (year old) desktop is back again. (I think most people have never ever had this experience of a persistent computer desktop that lasts in the months and even years).
I've been doing it that way for over 2 yrs now. works very very well. I get uptimes in the years for my 'desktop'. vncserver on freebsd is a GREAT server combo and is stable as it gets.
don't tell me vnc isn't the answer. everything I see and type is via a vnc connection (currently on a wireless xp laptop and having NO interface speed or lag issues at all. you wouldn't know you weren't actually local.)
--
"It is now safe to switch off your computer."
Hardly; new technology has never depended on everyone having access, only a majority.
I dont think what computers are able to do has any bearing on this.
People don't recognize 'intellectual property' people recognize tangible property. For instance, I won't be playing anymore Steam games because I don't like the life of my product to be tied to any company. I can pull duke nukem off the shelf now, install and play, who knows where 3d realms is these days.
Its like not being able to record a song but only listen to it from the radio. People will perceve this as a huge step backwards and I don't think they will accept it at all. Now large companies will probably not be so opposed.