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IDC Proclaims Linux Is Now Mainstream
robyannetta writes "Eweek has an
interesting article
quoting IDC analyst Al Gillen saying "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream." He made that observation because IDC's research predicts that Linux's overall revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008."
Now that Linux is mainstream I'll have to turn my back on it and find another cause to fight for. Has Netcraft confirmed the BSD rumours?
Trolling is a art,
Excuse me, wtf? Shouldnt it be based on usage? It's FREE.
-- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
until Netcraft confirms it.
So...doesn't that mean it'll be mainstream in 2008?
Assuming the prediction is right.
Hell. I predict I will be a stud by 2008, because I predict I will be having sex CONSTANTLY.
Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
Tell me something I don't klnow
Danger Will Robinson! You are now entering a condescending Unix user zone!
Thank you captain obvious. I'm sure nobody would have figured that out on their own. Sometimes I really wonder why people keep paying analysts at all. All they appear to do is churn out totally baseless and unrealistic estimates and statistics or state the obvious.
If a train station is a place where a train stops, what's a workstation?
So does this mean linux is not cool any more?
[n8.r0n] http://petesweb.spymac.net/
Grandma can't figure out how to print?
Installing printers in Linux is pretty simple. Configuring our main workgroup printer was as simple as giving the machine name on the network and saying it's an HP whatever.
Trolling is a art,
Except that grandma will have an equally or almost equally hard time figuring out a Windows box for an indefinite period of time, or even to a lesser degree a Mac box.
The grandma test largely fails since not all grandmas are equal (my grandma and grandpa taught me how to program FORTRAN when I was 8!) and since not all Linux boxes are equal (compare Lyrcoris to Debian).
If that's your definition of mainstream then I don't think even Windows is ready.
Leaving a Windows box with your grandmother is "fine" as long as she never turns it on or never connects to the internet... Linux may not be userfriendly, but considerably more "fine" than Windows.
Free? No... the term 'free software' is misleading... it isn't really Free... there is all sorts of revenue tied to products that either use said free software, or support for said free software... heck even the hardware that runs the free software is tied in... so it shouldn't be on usage, but rather revenue... since the software generates a lot of revenue... think of how much revenue iTunes generates Apple... and they don't charge a dime for iTunes... same sorta idea...
---
Programming is like sex... Make one mistake and support it the rest of your life.
Mainstream what?
Last company I worked for shifted all sun->linux + Intel, potentially most of the web pages your granny accesses will be running Apache on Linux, what about grannies DVD player, or phone or settop box or PVR, don't they run linux too?
thank God the internet isn't a human right.
It's already there. I did that for my father more than a year ago. No problems.
This is way too soon to say it's mainstream.
Hell, people don't even think netscape/mozilla/firefox is mainstream and it have 20% or more of the market.
... right above the article, declaring how Windows is cheaprer, less error prone, and more cost effective than Linux.
These same ironic banners are on Slashdot all the time. It's hilarious.
How is it an "observation" that Linux is mainstream when "research has predicted" that revenue will increase a lot? Not that Linux will be at some point, or is getting there, but that it IS mainsteam.
To me it's not really an observation, just a...what's the word... oh yeah, prediction.
Maybe I just don't get it.
I used to see Linux play in basements and living rooms. Now they have gone mainstream. They signed that $35 billion record deal. Damn sellouts.
Right, just like windows.
You seem to live in a magical land where pixies frolic and windows doesn't have to be reinstalled every six months like fucking clockwork.
Hrm. I installed Fedora on my system (no harder than installing windows), launched OO Writer (just like launching Word, except it was included in the OS install). Hit the print button. The document comes out on my USB connected LJ1200.
Welcome to the 21st century. We've been waiting for you.
-Peter
Well, I recently converted my mother's badly ailing Windows box to Fedora, and she hasn't looked back. Sure, I tended to all the nuts-and-bolts details of the installation, and very occasionally I still field a tech support call, but for the most part it all finally Just Works. For her needs it's perfect: email, web browsing, and word processing. And no more random boots into safe mode, no more virus and spyware infections, no more random lockups.
Your grandmother may not be able to figure out how to configure printing in Linux, but once it's been set up, the same print button and File menu option to print exists in Linux apps as it does in Windows, and it works the same way. For a truly fair comparison, I challenge your grandmother to install and configure Windows on a bare metal machine.
Loading...
Be quiet we hope our manufacturing competitors read that banner and believe it, let them spend the money on a buggy os while we cut our prices to drive them out of the market.
Got Code?
Wow, this is the first first post that I actually agree should have been moderated Redundant.
Everyone always talks about how Linux needs a unified, simple interface, which is really just code for saying it needs a Windows-like (or Mac-like, depending on the speaker) interface. While I agree that most things in Linux need interface work, I don't think all interfaces need to look exactly the same to be effective. In fact, trying to shoehorn an application into an interface that doesn't really fit it can cause actually reduce ease of use.
It's simple to code interfaces in Windows, because everyone just uses the same widgets to make their interfaces. The result is a homogenous, bland experience, where everything looks exactly the same. In this environment, nothing is super simple to use, but everything is at least equally difficult to figure out.
As for things like printing, Windows is easy to use if you are using one of a couple of popular scenarios, but once you break out of those, it can be nearly impossible to get things to work right. Some of this is because the interface for setting up non-traditional printer setups is obtuse, but most of it is because the help documentation on the topic is absolutely worthless. Microsoft Help is the most astounding collection of utterly worthless "troubleshooting tips" I have ever seen. I have never once had a problem that that thing came anywhere near helping me solve.
Interface work needs to be done. We do not need a single unified simple interface, we need several continually evolving interfaces, which will over time result in every application having the easiest and most intuitive interface for whatever it does.
All the cool antisocial elitist nerds will be using Hurd, man! Any time now...
From personal observations of customers and business people I can attest that, yes, Linux (and OSS in general) is widely known and most people take it seriously.
However, I guess many slashdotters (myself included) are already thinking about desktop. And that's still a long way to go. Even Firefox has still a long way ahead of itself, and I consider it to be one of the most well-known OSS applications out there. It will be a long time until non-geek people start using OSS seriously on the desktop.
Then again, I live in Germany, the clocks work differently here - maybe it's different elsewhere?
My mother (of grandmother age but I'm not budging on the 'no kids' thing) uses Linux (Gentoo with KDE Desktop) with no problems.
OK, so I set it all up for her (the way a vendor would pre-install Windoze) but once set up it runs smoothly and stays configured the way it was when set up. I simplified everything for her as she is not a power-user, removed lots of menu options and extraneous buttons and it's now so much easier for her to find her way around and actually do stuff than it was with Windows.
And that's on a hacked-together PII-300 running Gentoo, if she'd bought a pre-installed state-of-the-art Linux box it would be even smoother.
She has gone from calling me twice a day for tech support to once a fortnight since the switch from Windoze to Linux. I can fix any problem that does occur remotely. So now instead of talking exclusively about Blue Screens of Death, anti-virus software and automated updates we talk about me not providing any grandchildren.
~ Better a freak than a sheep. ~
someone shoud tell these guys mainstream is not how much money you make...
did you forget to take your meds?
I believe you hit the nail on the head. I think Linux will become largely successful as more and more kids/younger computer users, grow up using it as their everyday system.
I grew up using Dos/Win3.1/95..etc, and now, NT in my business. I'm extremely comfortable coding/managing NT systems, because it is what I've used for the longest period of time (last few years of Linux).
I can only imagine the different perspective I would have had, using Linux in High school and College only, and then being responsible for the IT in a business.
Another factor is the amazing user progress that distributions have made in the past few years. I remember putzing around with Red Hat 6.22 and really digging around with the shell...Comparing that to a recent version of anything running KDE/Gnome, and its astonishing.
Sig it.
It was mainstream when it made it on the Chapelle Show:
"If they give you a Windows disk, tell them we only run Mac. If they give you a Mac disk, tell them we only run windows. IF they give you both, tell them we use linux. And if they give you all three, tell them the computers are down."
IDC analyst Al Gillen [said] "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream."
/Triumph the Insult Comic Dog
Gillen went on to chortle, "But Linux geeks are not mainstream, and while they will continue to belong to the fringe, then will never ever be players with the laaadies!
On hearing this, the assembled contingent of bearded, pasty, pot-bellied Linux geeks hung their heads in shame, silently acknowledging the truth of Gillen's words, while wishing they could, like the 7th level Magic-Users they aspired to be, quietly teleport back to their mother's basements and their collections of what they pretentiously refer to as "graphic novels".
I keed!, I keed! Truly I love you all!
Opinions on the Twiddler2 hand-held keyboard?
they have a long history of predicting that Linux growth will be lower than what one would reasonably expect given the previous quarters at various free software companies. Remember back when Linux was doubling in a year or less, and they were predicting 27% growth?
They get a lot of press, and by pretending to be extolling Linux, and aided by naive free software advocates who go around giving publicity to their numbers, they actually succeed in making it look a lot smaller than it is.
Microsoft is notorious for spending money on dishonest pr flacks.
I wish there were real numbers on Linux usage growth over the last year. Surely it isn't doubling anymore, but I bet it is still gaining market share.
Hans
www.namesys.com
Does this mean we'll finally start seeing direct ports of the most popular gaming titles? Leisure Suit Larry for teh win.
Help me, help you. - Jerry McGuire
Linux won't be mainstream until... your gran gets linux pre-installed with her new PC; bought from any highstreet store.
I just finished an email with a co-worker from three jobs ago, when I was a consultant doing systems and network stuff for small-medium companies in Mass., RI and Conn. Back then I was all-linux, but I worked on IBMs AS/400s and NT/2k, and rarely got any Unix work on the job. I eventually left because my boss wasn't pushing linux hard enough for my liking.
Anyways, I just finished an email in which my co-worker proclaimed this year to be the year of linux. Coming from him, I am forced to take a step back from my daily linux work-life and look at it from his perspective.
To those who don't find MS to be an abomination of all that is good and holy, and simply use what technology is best for the times, this year is the equivalent 96(or 97) for NT. This was a year or so before I got into the business(high school and all), but from what I make of the timeline, NT was _IT_ back then. It was a server, it was somewhat stable(compared to Windows), it was user-friendly(compared to Unix/AS400), it was fully 32-bit. It ran on Alphas for christ's sake.
What high hopes it held.
Now, though, I am worried about what comes next. It took 8 years for what I knew to be the next big thing to become the next big thing. Am I now so deep into linux that I won't be able to see what's set to surpass it until it's here? I'm worried I will turn into those 'NT guys' from 96 or so who saw linux as a handicapped os and summarily dismissed it. Of course, it didn't even support 2-gigabyte files back then, so maybe they had a point.
Time will have to tell. I saw one computing mini-revolution coming years ahead of the mainstream; I hope to be able to see the next also.
Do you see the sig? Do you have it in your sights? Why yes, Miss Moneypenny...
How about SuSe, my dad ACCIDENTALLY installed Suse on his laptop on day... Ok, how's that for an easy install. He friggin ACCIDENTALLY installed it.
Best part about it was that after about a day he decided that he didn't want me to put Windows back on it, and he has been using Linux for about 3 months just fine.
He can even use his wireless card which took more than an hour to install in MS. He just plugged it into the pcmcia slot and it beeped at him with Linux.
--Forest C. Adcock--
Personally I'd rather a bland homogenous interface than something completely different for every single application. In case you hadn't noticed products that have attempted to make their UI "more interesting" have often come up with something worse.
In 1995 I suffered with UNIX applications that have different locations of load/save, different shortcut keys for cut, copy and paste, different results when you clicked on a button (does it open a window or pull a dropdown or toggle a tickbox) and so on. Learning shortcut keys was next to impossible unless you remembered that each on only worked with some applications and on others didn't something completely different.
The last thing I want to do is return to a world like that (which is what you are advocating). When I'm using an unfamiliar application, I like the fact that I know rougly what is in the "File" and "Edit" menus and I know that Ctrl-Z will undo my mistake - rather than actually do something completely different because some smartass deleveloper tried to be different.
Those people who proclaim you need a single unified user interface do so for a very good reason.
Avantslash - View Slashdot cleanly on your mobile phone.
well for all those that claim that linux is not that user friendly I have just a couple of words , Linksys, embeded devices (i.e. mp3 players and other pocket media players).
The article is very right that linux makes sence to a lot of companies however I disagree with the statement that linux is not going to take over the desktop market. Linux was and is built as a desktop system and just because people use it on servers means nothing. As a matter of fact certain unix distributions and bsd will probably work better for things like clusters and other large servers. Anyway, I think that linux distros like Novell's Linux Desktop will eventually become a common view in corporate offices and I compleatelly disagree that OSS will be a common part of Windows desktops. The people that have to port OSS to windows often dislike the process and software does not get ported very fast. Just because Mozilla does not follow the same rules does not mean that the rest of the OSS doesn't also. Mozilla was started as a cross platform software and has never been anything less. However, projects like gimp and xchat are based on open GUIs and that does not fit very well in the windows world. Xchat's maintainer already started charging for the windows version. The reason given was that it's a major pain to port the software (for him). Gimp on the other hand is ported by 3rd parties and some of the ports also charge for the work done. Windows is build so that the system is *shielded* from the user as much as possible. This leads to very few points of entry and a very nasty OS for tweaking.
There are a couple of other things that the article misses like that on embeded devices linux has a pretty good presence and that latelly companies like Cisco (they own Linksys) have started puting on routers.
Oh yeah and if you think that linux is hard or weird or whatever you should probably recal the time when you started using Windows. I bet you it was weird and hard too. Why should you expect Linux to be easier to learn than Windows?
...that this comes before the first '2005 is the year of Linux on the desktop!!111' prediction. They've been predicting it every single year, and the year when it is declared to be true (whether or not it is), they are beaten to the punch ;).
Work is punishment for failing to procrastinate effectively.
This really bothers me. To me, "mainstream" means something that the majority of people not only can enjoy but also want to enjoy of their own volition - acceptance by and demand from the general populous. The dictionary defines "mainstream" as Representing the prevalent attitudes, values, and practices of a society or group.In that regard, how is "mainstream" possibly close to describing Linux?
He seems to be talking exclusively about "mainstream" in the IT world. I don't see how even in 2008 Linux will be "mainstream" in the home desktop world. Shouldn't the term "mainstream" be applied across the board before it's used in such a broad fashion?
The prevalent attitudes towards computers, especially on the desktop, is that anything other than Windows != effective or easy to use. Put a number of Linux computers on sale at Best Buy (or your country's equivalent) with all things being equal with respect to hardware and price and everything necessary to run Windows on the Linux system, and see how they fare compared to Windows system. The general populous will purchase Windows in droves while those of us in the know (and we ARE a minority, folks) might purchase the Linux system.
If some PC manufacturer will actually put out a system for sale on retail stores that sells comparable numbers to Windows PCs, then I'll be more accepting of the "mainstream" moniker. (Not that anybody's individual acceptance really means anything...)
I also question why he perceives the migration to Linux in the IT world to be "mainstream". Look at the two primary alternatives:
* Windows - bloated, slow, expensive TCO, closed, not well scaleable
* Sun - aewsome operating system, unbelievable scaling capabilities, unbearably arrogant and short-sighted CEO, f**king EXPENSIVE hardware
Now comes Linux - can use existing hardware, scales fairly well, free, tons of software for free, tech support is available at a reasonable price... Hmmmm!
I'd like to see a study done on how "mainstream" Linux really is and why. Was it accepted in IT because of its strengths or was it accepted in IT because of the excessive weaknesses of its competitors? They're not the same, but I think that the reasons are important. YMMV.
The Overrated mod is for reversing inappropriate, positive mods, not for voicing disagreement with a post.
Viruses? Hah, that's why I run Linux!!
Republicans are stupid? So are Democrats? Hah! I'm a Libertarian!
Popular music is lame? Hah! That's why I only listen to my next door neighbor's garage band who NOBODY knows!
It's a fluff piece but it has been sorely needed for a while.
It has long been said that before Linux will be the order of the day, CEOs and their underlings need to read about Linux more and more before they'll start to ask "what is this thing and why aren't we running it?" It had brief exposure on CNN and some other sources, but it still needs more lip service.
It has long been felt "no one has ever been fired for going with Microsoft..." and that might change too when reliability is compared. I was tickled when I first noticed the RedHat8 server we use at my site has an uptime of greater than a year. No kernel updates or anything else has required a reboot and we've got a damned nice UPS in place. It serves its functions and does it nicely. I just can't get that from a Microsoft server...especially when every security update requires a reboot... especially when end of life means no more security updates and forces an upgrade. Most people have been droned into thinking that's just 'normal' but I just can't see it that way.
The more Fluff we get, the more the uneducated starts asking about it and making it happen.
I like where I work though... we're already on a roadmap that dumps Microsoft entirely... my condolences to those who are still stuck in MS-land.
Do you, like grandma, click on every link in sight and then call me about the porn popups?
It seems like you are comparing installing Windows to installing a complete GNU/Linux system. Are you including installing office. Oh, and WinZip, and photoshop and an image viewer (so either grandma or you can browse your collection of kitty pictures) and flash and acrobat and getting the god damned webcam to work and etc, etc, etc?
I'm not really touting anything. I use Fedora. If you like Madrake better, god bless you. If you like windows better, god help you. I don't really care what your preference is, but I will do my best to deflate any FUD.
I'll grant you that it's easiest to eat whatever's in the trough. That didn't seem to be at issue, though.
-Peter
The meaning isn't clear. Is server hardware being intertwined with sales of software and services? Is this an estimate of annual revenues in 2008 or simply an estimate of the total for 1998-2008? What are the numbers for Windows?
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Exactly!
I wouldn't dream of turning over a Windows PC to my 75 year old parents. Hell, my dad calls me to help talk him through the TV/VCR and recently DVD useage issues.
However, I've been thinking of getting them a notebook PC and installing Xandros Linux so they can get email, surf "the interweb", and download digital pictures from the camera. Xandros is easier than any version of Windows I've used, and I've suffered since Windows 3.1. Printers? Xandros knows my Lexmark Z52 inkjet and my big mutha Lexmark Optra T614 network laser printer. The drivers are already there, and installation couldn't be easier. No Plug-N-Pray (TM), no installation CD needed, and no need to reboot for changes to take effect.
I've been running Xandros exclusively for over two years for my engineering business. It runs 24/7 and I use lots of complex applications including mechanical CAD, electrical CAD & PCB layout, accounting, programming, etc. I'd NEVER go back to being a Windows luser and I'd certainly never subject my parents to the insane hassles of Outlook worm de jour and the weekly security exploits in Windows and IE.
There are other easy to use distros as well, and there is the Mac, so there is plenty of choice. If you want a computer, there is no need to play monopoly.
It's counter intuitive, but power users have a harder time migrating from Windows because of that one obscure application they just have to have. The average PC user who wants hassle-free internet, email, and office applications is best served by Linux, Firefox/Mozilla, OpenOffice, etc.
>> My ultraviolent Linux switch video.
I find it intesting how everyone is so quick to dismiss Linux in the grandma test.
Here is my reality:
Grandma is 2500 miles away. What OS do I want to give her? Wells its definitely not Windows. She wants to get on the Internet and lets face it, my grandma is not very tech savvy and would probably load up that machine with so much spyware and viruses it would crumble.
My thoughts? Knoppix. Build a custom knoppix that includes browser, email, a few games, etc and presto she is set. Every boot is clean. It meets her computing needs without the worry of viruses/spyware/etc.. every few months, I could create a new Knoppix CD and send it to her.. boot off the new CD, and she has the latest software.
I could be a little bit creative, have her settings/documents stored on the hard drive and have Knoppix on boot run a script that would determine the last backup and prompt her to pop in a CD-RW to keep a backup of her data.
Since she is booting off the CD, I can boot my copy of the CD to know exactly what she is looking at on-screen if she has questions.
I dunno.. it seems like the right choice to me. Perhaps it could even go a step further where the hard drive is partitioned and when the Knoppix CD is booted up, it would prompt if she wants to update her computer (auto-install to hard drive) or boot from the CD. Keep the docs/settings on their own partition so it doesn't get removed.
I know grandma can pop in a CD and turn on the computer. Seems like this would pass the test.
Yup, We've seen this before. It's not the same article exactly, but both had obviously been haplessly scraped out of the same press release. Same numbers, same quotes. Nothing to see here...
So, the tables have turned for me, and now I'm *not* telling them to switch to linux, becuase THEY WOULD!
My Linux Command of the Day site : LCOD
This is why I always use the term libre software. It makes things more clear. You're going to have to explain the term anways. You might as well start out with something more unambiguous.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
If you can move over the Calendar appointments I think businesses would be willing to change that app.
Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
The next "last straw" for some people may be this prediction from Microsoft-Watch:
Microsoft's biggest announcement of the year won't be Yukon (SQL Server 2005) or Whidbey (Visual Studio 2005). Instead, it will be an as-yet-unannounced anti-virus/anti-spyware subscription service for which Microsoft will charge.
Source: http://tinyurl.com/3sht4
More likely MSFT will quietly offer this to their bigger customers to keep them from switching to OSS while the great sea of consumer users will have to pay. Or maybe they'll be smart and give it away, but that's a little like hoping dubya will really be a uniter and not a divider.
I think IDC's estimates are conservative. Now that the ball is rolling down hill it will only continue to accelerate. Aided by MSFT's almost uncanny ability to treat their customers like criminals.
That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
I've ACCIDENTALLY had the same thing happen to me at work. I tripped over an ethernet cable in the lab and Bang, SuSE got installed. Lost two W2000 servers this way :)
Enjoy,
It's just the normal noises in here.
OTOH, Windows have several killer apps, like Photoshop & other Adobe apps, Macromedias apps, Microsoft apps (and my own personal favourite, Directory Opus) etc. Sure, you can run some of them through Wine, but that's not something a lot of people will want to do.
Having read this post I feel like I just sat through another office meeting. :/
By any chance, are you in Marketing or Sales ?
My sister is in Marketing and she sounds like this every once in a while.
__________________________________
Free your mind - Flush your toilet
The house where I rent a room (in El Paso) is owned by the grandparents of my housemate. His grandmother's computer was pretty much infected with Windows spyware, to the point that it was unusable. Bootup took forever, lots of error messages, millions of spyware / adware pustules errupting everywhere ...
a) I used Mepis to rescue her documents
b) I showed her the machine working with Linux (Mepis and Ubuntu, both of which work fine with her hardware), and *didn't* take forever like Windows does for her. [Old Windows - ME, oldish hardware by current standards] She likes it, and except that I'm out of town until next month, I would install it (her request) on her machine. That's still the plan.
Partly, Linux has gotten better, Partly Windows is just a big pain in the butt. (Some people say otherwise, and more power to 'em. YMMV, etc.)
timothy
jrnl: http://tinyurl.com/c2l8yr / foes: http://tinyurl.com/ckjno5