IDC Proclaims Linux Is Now Mainstream

robyannetta writes "Eweek has an interesting article quoting IDC analyst Al Gillen saying "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream." He made that observation because IDC's research predicts that Linux's overall revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008."

Comments

Won't be

[mpeg4codec]

Linux won't be mainstream until I can set up a Linux box for my grandmother and leave it knowing she'll be fine with it for an indefinite period of time. Right now, the one thing it's mostly lacking is a unified, simple interface [a la Windows or OS X] and just user friendliness in general. Grandma can't figure out how to print? It's not ready..

Just my $.02.

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

are you saying you can do that with M$

Re:Won't be

[grub]

Grandma can't figure out how to print?

Installing printers in Linux is pretty simple. Configuring our main workgroup printer was as simple as giving the machine name on the network and saying it's an HP whatever.

Re:Won't be

[danheskett]

Except that grandma will have an equally or almost equally hard time figuring out a Windows box for an indefinite period of time, or even to a lesser degree a Mac box.

The grandma test largely fails since not all grandmas are equal (my grandma and grandpa taught me how to program FORTRAN when I was 8!) and since not all Linux boxes are equal (compare Lyrcoris to Debian).

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

Bullshit. Grandma can't figure out how to print in Windows if the driver breaks. See a print button? It's in Windows and Linux. See the driver breakage? Grandma's calling tech support regardless of the OS. The "Grandma Test" no longer holds water for mature apps.

Re:Won't be

[parvenu74]

Leaving a Windows box with your grandmother is "fine" as long as she never turns it on or never connects to the internet... Linux may not be userfriendly, but considerably more "fine" than Windows.

Re:Won't be

[oliverthered]

Mainstream what?

Last company I worked for shifted all sun->linux + Intel, potentially most of the web pages your granny accesses will be running Apache on Linux, what about grannies DVD player, or phone or settop box or PVR, don't they run linux too?

Re:Won't be

[sqlrob]

It's already there. I did that for my father more than a year ago. No problems.

Re:Won't be

[Squatchman]

The plug and play facet of windows has come a long way over the years. Far more useful than what /. will probably give it credit for.

Re:Won't be

[advocate_one]

first define your Grandma/Grandpa... considering it's perfectly possible to become a grandparent at the sprightly age of only 33.5 (assuming legal age of consent being 16) and that I assumed the status of grandpa only 18 months ago at the age of 45, most grandparents are perfectly capable of using Linux...

Re:Won't be

[pete-classic]

Linux won't be mainstream until I can set up a Linux box for my grandmother and leave it knowing she'll be fine with it for an indefinite period of time.

Right, just like windows.

You seem to live in a magical land where pixies frolic and windows doesn't have to be reinstalled every six months like fucking clockwork.

Grandma can't figure out how to print?

Hrm. I installed Fedora on my system (no harder than installing windows), launched OO Writer (just like launching Word, except it was included in the OS install). Hit the print button. The document comes out on my USB connected LJ1200.

Welcome to the 21st century. We've been waiting for you.

-Peter

Re:Won't be

[Saeed al-Sahaf]

Right now, the one thing it's mostly lacking is a unified, simple interface [a la Windows or OS X] and just user friendliness in general. Grandma can't figure out how to print? It's not ready..

Never set up a Redhat 9 box then, I guess. Has all the things you mention... And, since "grandma" is prob. not going to be wanting to play the latest video games, but rather use email and Internet, Redhat should do just fine (if they still made a consumer version).

Re:Won't be

[C3ntaur]

Well, I recently converted my mother's badly ailing Windows box to Fedora, and she hasn't looked back. Sure, I tended to all the nuts-and-bolts details of the installation, and very occasionally I still field a tech support call, but for the most part it all finally Just Works. For her needs it's perfect: email, web browsing, and word processing. And no more random boots into safe mode, no more virus and spyware infections, no more random lockups.

Your grandmother may not be able to figure out how to configure printing in Linux, but once it's been set up, the same print button and File menu option to print exists in Linux apps as it does in Windows, and it works the same way. For a truly fair comparison, I challenge your grandmother to install and configure Windows on a bare metal machine.

Re:Won't be

[eln]

Wow, this is the first first post that I actually agree should have been moderated Redundant.

Everyone always talks about how Linux needs a unified, simple interface, which is really just code for saying it needs a Windows-like (or Mac-like, depending on the speaker) interface. While I agree that most things in Linux need interface work, I don't think all interfaces need to look exactly the same to be effective. In fact, trying to shoehorn an application into an interface that doesn't really fit it can cause actually reduce ease of use.

It's simple to code interfaces in Windows, because everyone just uses the same widgets to make their interfaces. The result is a homogenous, bland experience, where everything looks exactly the same. In this environment, nothing is super simple to use, but everything is at least equally difficult to figure out.

As for things like printing, Windows is easy to use if you are using one of a couple of popular scenarios, but once you break out of those, it can be nearly impossible to get things to work right. Some of this is because the interface for setting up non-traditional printer setups is obtuse, but most of it is because the help documentation on the topic is absolutely worthless. Microsoft Help is the most astounding collection of utterly worthless "troubleshooting tips" I have ever seen. I have never once had a problem that that thing came anywhere near helping me solve.

Interface work needs to be done. We do not need a single unified simple interface, we need several continually evolving interfaces, which will over time result in every application having the easiest and most intuitive interface for whatever it does.

Re:Won't be

[Z00L00K]

The difference is that the stream is now really flowing, so now it is time to write all those small and simple tools that handles the bread&butter functions that you want.

On the other hand, Fedora Core 2 was really good when it comes to user experience, and I'm still planning to take on Fedora Core 3 (mostly lack of time, too much /. ;-> )

One script language for writing simple UI:s is TCL/Tk. (OK, there are others too...)

Re:Won't be

[wraith0x29a]

My mother (of grandmother age but I'm not budging on the 'no kids' thing) uses Linux (Gentoo with KDE Desktop) with no problems.

OK, so I set it all up for her (the way a vendor would pre-install Windoze) but once set up it runs smoothly and stays configured the way it was when set up. I simplified everything for her as she is not a power-user, removed lots of menu options and extraneous buttons and it's now so much easier for her to find her way around and actually do stuff than it was with Windows.

And that's on a hacked-together PII-300 running Gentoo, if she'd bought a pre-installed state-of-the-art Linux box it would be even smoother.

She has gone from calling me twice a day for tech support to once a fortnight since the switch from Windoze to Linux. I can fix any problem that does occur remotely. So now instead of talking exclusively about Blue Screens of Death, anti-virus software and automated updates we talk about me not providing any grandchildren.

Re:Won't be

[OrangeTide]

You've just pointed out the most important thing, everyone needs their own personal sys admin.

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

Linux won't be mainstream until I can set up a Linux box for my grandmother and leave it knowing she'll be fine with it for an indefinite period of time.

By that measure, Microsoft Windows can't be mainstream either.

Re:Won't be

[dtfinch]

Having switched to Ubuntu, I feel that it is very user friendly except for tasks that are unlikely to concern Grandma, such as setting up apache+mysql so she can do web development. Just uncomment universe in her /etc/apt/sources.list and she'll have point and click access to all the major free software in the world.

Re:Won't be

[AbbyNormal]

I believe you hit the nail on the head. I think Linux will become largely successful as more and more kids/younger computer users, grow up using it as their everyday system.

I grew up using Dos/Win3.1/95..etc, and now, NT in my business. I'm extremely comfortable coding/managing NT systems, because it is what I've used for the longest period of time (last few years of Linux).

I can only imagine the different perspective I would have had, using Linux in High school and College only, and then being responsible for the IT in a business.

Another factor is the amazing user progress that distributions have made in the past few years. I remember putzing around with Red Hat 6.22 and really digging around with the shell...Comparing that to a recent version of anything running KDE/Gnome, and its astonishing.

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

Linux won't be mainstream until I can set up a Linux box for my grandmother and leave it knowing she'll be fine with it for an indefinite period of time.

So you're saying that Linux went mainstream in 2001?

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

I know this is Slashdot and a lot of us haven't known "the ways of a woman", but you do know that the age of consent isn't actually relevant for your calculation, right?

Re:Won't be

[sqlrob]

Which is true *regardless* of OS

Re:Won't be

[Alci12]

Linux won't be mainstream until... your gran gets linux pre-installed with her new PC; bought from any highstreet store.

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

For a truly fair comparison, I challenge your grandmother to install and configure Windows on a bare metal machine.

How is that a fair comparison? Your grandmother didn't install and configure Linux, nor did the OP say his grandmother would have to. Apples to apples, you could probably teach your grandmother to install Windows easier than most Linux distros, with exceptions.

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

You seem to live in a magical land where pixies frolic and windows doesn't have to be reinstalled every six months like fucking clockwork.

The pixies sure are frisky outside my window today. The fact that you fuck up your windows box every six months like fucking clockwork is of no concern to those of us who know what we're doing. I've been running the same Win2k install since October 2000. Most of the time as admin. Installing and removing stuff all the time. Fucking around with third party driver upgrades. Only had one thing seriously impact stability, and that was some ISP's crappy PPPOE dialer. Pieces of it are still on my system, but it's otherwise perfectly stable.

Now I run XP home and play games on it. Never bluescreened, not even once. One lockup -- when my CPU overheated.

Re:Won't be

[PhoenixFlare]

You seem to live in a magical land where pixies frolic and windows doesn't have to be reinstalled every six months like fucking clockwork.

I must, because i've had Win XP Pro on my system for 2.5 years and counting so far, without a single reinstall. I'll make sure to greet the pixies for you.

Hrm. I installed Fedora on my system (no harder than installing windows)

Speak for yourself. Including all the configuration and after-the-fact tweaking to get everything working right and updated, it took probably twice as long when I tried it about 6 months ago.

One would think you'd at least tout something like Mandrake, being that it's actually made with a focus on ease-of-use and newbie-friendliness.

(just like launching Word, except it was included in the OS install).

A very insignificant advantage for a lot of mainstream users, considering that Office is included by default or choice with a huge number of new computers these days.

Re:Won't be

[pete-classic]

The fact that you fuck up your windows box every six months like fucking clockwork is of no concern to those of us who know what we're doing.

We aren't talking about me (I don't run windows) and we aren't talking about you. We're talking about grandma. Grandma like clicking on shit and then calling you about the porn pop-ups.

Anyway, if you're so fucking clever, why can't you figure out how to log on to slashdot?

-Peter

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

I would agree printing on Fedora worked flawlessly... I didn't have to install drivers or anything. Being the first time I used linux, I was pretty impressed.

Re:Won't be

[Mr_Silver]

It's simple to code interfaces in Windows, because everyone just uses the same widgets to make their interfaces. The result is a homogenous, bland experience, where everything looks exactly the same.

Personally I'd rather a bland homogenous interface than something completely different for every single application. In case you hadn't noticed products that have attempted to make their UI "more interesting" have often come up with something worse.

In 1995 I suffered with UNIX applications that have different locations of load/save, different shortcut keys for cut, copy and paste, different results when you clicked on a button (does it open a window or pull a dropdown or toggle a tickbox) and so on. Learning shortcut keys was next to impossible unless you remembered that each on only worked with some applications and on others didn't something completely different.

The last thing I want to do is return to a world like that (which is what you are advocating). When I'm using an unfamiliar application, I like the fact that I know rougly what is in the "File" and "Edit" menus and I know that Ctrl-Z will undo my mistake - rather than actually do something completely different because some smartass deleveloper tried to be different.

Those people who proclaim you need a single unified user interface do so for a very good reason.

Re:Won't be

[danheskett]

Well let's see.. your calculations are correct in terms of raw numbers, but in my case this was a few decades ago and the grandparents were in their late 70's pushing close to 80.

Re:Won't be

[MightyMartian]

It may be a long time before Linux is mainstream on Joe Average's home computer, but in the server world, Linux has been mainstream for years. My first SLIP account was being run through a Linux box, and that was ten or eleven years ago.

Re:Won't be

[C3ntaur]

Well, my thinking was that his grandmother couldn't figure out how to print on this hypothetical Linux system because printing had not yet been configured. If, on the other hand, printing had been configured and his grandmother could not figure out that File->Print the or button with the printer icon on it in a desktop app did the same thing that it did in Windows, well then I'm amazed that she's able to print (or do much of anything else) in Windows.

Re:Won't be

[abradsn]

You are a sys admin. Grandma, would never use the word "workgroup"

Re:Won't be

[mooingyak]

As you say, depends on the grandparent.

I expect I'll become one around the same age you did (my oldest will be 23 when I reach 45), and I don't think I'll have gone senile just yet at that point.

On the other hand, my Grandmother is 87 and has trouble with ANYTHING remotely technological, including her digital alarm clock that only has 4 buttons.

Re:Won't be

[pete-classic]

i've had Win XP Pro on my system for 2.5 years and counting so far, without a single reinstall.

Do you, like grandma, click on every link in sight and then call me about the porn popups?

Speak for yourself. Including all the configuration and after-the-fact tweaking to get everything working right and updated, it took probably twice as long when I tried it about 6 months ago.

It seems like you are comparing installing Windows to installing a complete GNU/Linux system. Are you including installing office. Oh, and WinZip, and photoshop and an image viewer (so either grandma or you can browse your collection of kitty pictures) and flash and acrobat and getting the god damned webcam to work and etc, etc, etc?

One would think you'd at least tout something like Mandrake

I'm not really touting anything. I use Fedora. If you like Madrake better, god bless you. If you like windows better, god help you. I don't really care what your preference is, but I will do my best to deflate any FUD.

[An office suite included in the OS install is a] very insignificant advantage for a lot of mainstream users, considering that Office is included by default or choice with a huge number of new computers these days.

I'll grant you that it's easiest to eat whatever's in the trough. That didn't seem to be at issue, though.

-Peter

Re:Won't be

[grub]

Grandma, would never use the word "workgroup"

What did Grandma enter in the "Workgroup" field in her Network Settings (assuming Windows)?

Re:Won't be

[secretsquirel]

Grandma probably called tech support. aka you.

Re:Won't be

[Zerikai]

Then, using your understading of mainstream no existing system is.

Whether or not a system will be fine for your average non-expert user for indefinite period of time has more to do with knowing what your user will need to do and leaving the system configured for it.

Past that point (configuration), stability and security (features in which a well-configured linux machine beats windoze, and this is out of the question) would be the only issues that might make your user call you for expert help.

Re:Won't be

[advocate_one]

the age of consent is relevant just to show what the legal minimum age for a grandparent can be...

Re:Won't be

[Long-EZ]

are you saying you can do that with M$

Exactly!

I wouldn't dream of turning over a Windows PC to my 75 year old parents. Hell, my dad calls me to help talk him through the TV/VCR and recently DVD useage issues.

However, I've been thinking of getting them a notebook PC and installing Xandros Linux so they can get email, surf "the interweb", and download digital pictures from the camera. Xandros is easier than any version of Windows I've used, and I've suffered since Windows 3.1. Printers? Xandros knows my Lexmark Z52 inkjet and my big mutha Lexmark Optra T614 network laser printer. The drivers are already there, and installation couldn't be easier. No Plug-N-Pray (TM), no installation CD needed, and no need to reboot for changes to take effect.

I've been running Xandros exclusively for over two years for my engineering business. It runs 24/7 and I use lots of complex applications including mechanical CAD, electrical CAD & PCB layout, accounting, programming, etc. I'd NEVER go back to being a Windows luser and I'd certainly never subject my parents to the insane hassles of Outlook worm de jour and the weekly security exploits in Windows and IE.

There are other easy to use distros as well, and there is the Mac, so there is plenty of choice. If you want a computer, there is no need to play monopoly.

It's counter intuitive, but power users have a harder time migrating from Windows because of that one obscure application they just have to have. The average PC user who wants hassle-free internet, email, and office applications is best served by Linux, Firefox/Mozilla, OpenOffice, etc.

Re:Won't be

[duffbeer703]

Help files may be useless, but at least there is a Microsoft Help interface.

Unix used man pages, GNU stuff uses that info crap and other projects only supply PDF or HTML docs

Re:Won't be

[EnderWiggnz]

what the hell do you mean, legal?

a grandparent could easily be as young as 24, and they'd still be "legally" a grandparent.

Re:Won't be

[brunson]

That's funny, because 33.5 is almost exactly the age my brother was when he became a grandfather last year. One legal point your missing is that two minors are not constrained by 'legal age of consent' in most US states.

But then again, he can't even figure out how to work his windows box, so I guess the point is moot.

Re:Won't be

[TFGeditor]

I do not understand why the parent is modded "Troll." He's absolutely correct--"Insightful" even.

Re:Won't be

[HangingChad]

Microsoft Help is the most astounding collection of utterly worthless "troubleshooting tips" I have ever seen.

I busted out laughing when I read that because I can't count the times sitting in front of busted Windows box thinking the exact same thing about the help files. They are absolutely the most useless, bloated piece of an already bloated, barely functional operating system.

I have never once had a problem that that thing came anywhere near helping me solve.

So true. Why bother including them at all? The help files are so divorced from reality they could easily be for a different operating system. If you're going to go to all the trouble and cost to include them, at least make them somewhat functional.

Re:Won't be

[PhoenixFlare]

Do you, like grandma, click on every link in sight and then call me about the porn popups?

No, I use Firefox and run a full Ad-Aware and virus scan once a month. Certainly something that could be put into practice for our hypothetical grandma - both the virus/adware scans can be scheduled and automatically run, and Firefox on Windows even has an easy-to-use installer now.

If you or someone else can get at her computer for a couple minutes, you could delete or hide any way for her to easily start IE, as well.

It seems like you are comparing installing Windows to installing a complete GNU/Linux system.

Fine, let's go through what you mention then.

Are you including installing office

Only if it hasn't been pre-installed, and chances are good that it has been, especially on the system options available to our non-power-user possible grandmother. Even if you do have to install it, you stick the first CD, enter the product key, and click "Next" a few times, possibly swapping CDs. Might take 30-45 mins.

Oh, and WinZip

winzip.com, download the installer, run it. The full install might take 5 minutes at the most, more or less depending on imaginary grandma's internet connection speed. I just tried doing an install here, and it took 65 seconds from the time I started downloading the file to the time it was installed ready for use.

photoshop

Also a pretty trivial install, assuming bizzaro-grandma has the CD key handy. It's been a while since I installed it myself, I don't remember it taking more than 15 minutes or so though.

and an image viewer (so either grandma or you can browse your collection of kitty pictures)

AFAIK, there's an image viewer built right into XP, that will let you view all pictures in a folder with a sort of slideshow interface.

and flash

www.shockwave.com or search for "Flash Player" in Google, go the first result, and download the installer.

I forget if there's a reboot involved with the install, but it shouldn't take more than 5 or 10 minutes unless her system is unusually slow.

and acrobat

Same thing. adobe.com, click the "Get Adobe Reader" link, answer a couple questions, download the installer. 5-10 minutes if you have broadband.

getting the god damned webcam to work and etc, etc, etc?

Depending on the maker, this could be either massively easier or harder than under Linux. Not really relevant here, I think, as it could be a pain on both sides.

I'm not really touting anything. I use Fedora. If you like Madrake better, god bless you. If you like windows better, god help you. I don't really care what your preference is, but I will do my best to deflate any FUD.

You claimed installing Fedora was no harder than installing Windows. I believe that is not true. Hence my comments.

If you're not touting anything, and meant to compare a Windows install to a GNU/Linux install in general, then perhaps you should have left a specific distro name out of it.

I'll grant you that it's easiest to eat whatever's in the trough. That didn't seem to be at issue, though.

I've tried the various OpenOffice components, Staroffice, and Abiword. None of them worked better than MS Office for me, unfortunately - varying degrees of slowness, bad UI design, and crashes. I've seen many comments from others reporting the same sorts of experiences.

That's all I can say, really. There's a reason so many people continue to use MS Office, and it might not be what you think.

Don't get me wrong, i'd have nothing but good-will towards an actual free rival, but none of the products i've seen are at that level yet.

Re:Won't be

[secretsquirel]

Are You serious? I'm sorry but if you think that Grandma will have even close to the amount of trouble using windows than using any linux distro you are nuts. Absolutly trucking nuts. It's been too long since you've used windows. Grandma (not your grandma) will not be able to constructively use linux until you honestly never ever need to see a command line. Period. If linux ever gets close to being able to be used by the general public, it probably won't be used by me. Linux should not be like windows, that's the thing with it. Either learn how to use it and harness it's power, or use another freaking OS. Want a *nix thats easy for grandma to use? It's called OSX.

Re:Won't be

[archen]

The result is a homogenous, bland experience, where everything looks exactly the same.

Pfft, I don't know what sort of apps you use, but I've seen assloads of windows apps that all look and respond differently. Nero, EZ CD creator, that crap program to read pictures from my camera, PowerDVD ... windows has turned into a skinning DISASTER area. And it's something that really pisses me off about windows since right around 2000 everything was nice and clean and fairly consistent. Then come the skinning apps, and comes Windows XP itself - just give me my regular widgets back!

In this environment, nothing is super simple to use, but everything is at least equally difficult to figure out.

That's very true and I think you hit the nail on the head there. I don't need stuff like photoshop filters that produce windows that look like spaceships, I need things that clearly point to what I'm trying to do.

Re:Won't be

[Anonymous Coward]

That wasn't the GP's point. You and I can run 'immortal' XP or 2K installs, but in my experience the people who can are usually the ones who can install Gentoo as well. Windows boxes used by ordinary people without admin support usually do need frequent reinstalls.

Re:Won't be

[drgreg911]

Printing still seems to be pretty much a crapshoot under Linux. I only buy HP's, and I've still found that they either instally effortlessly and flawlessly or just plain suck.

Re:Won't be

[SunFan]

Haha, what if the ghostscript driver it chooses for you isn't quite the right one? What if only the second printer port is free on the back of your computer? The shit can hit the fan pretty quick when it doesn't work right off the bat.

Re:Won't be

[jasonmicron]

This person makes a valid point and it gets modded down to -1 (Troll) because it speaks the truth. Why? Linux is definitely far from user-friendly. Now financially it might be hitting the mainstream hallmark but as far as usability and the "getting grandma on the internet" factor it has a LONG way to go.

Re:Won't be

[smchris]

Fedora I installed for a "Grandma" about six months ago is still working for her. First thing, she made a beeline for the free spyware. When I explained why it wasn't for her and the trade-off in benefits, she understood.

I followed a Slashdot article to SimplyMEPIS the other month and put it on my recreational machine. It's Debian but the desktop continues to grow on me and I recommend it.

Re:Won't be

[DrugCheese]

You code your own NT system?

Re:Won't be

[justsomebody]

What I can say to your comment is...

Oh, god. Some people really have too much time.

You claimed installing Fedora was no harder than installing Windows. I believe that is not true. Hence my comments.

You believe wrong.

That's all I can say, really. There's a reason so many people continue to use MS Office, and it might not be what you think.

Yeah, OO.o can't import some files. And that would be enough for some people. Instead of using native format.

Don't get me wrong, i'd have nothing but good-will towards an actual free rival, but none of the products i've seen are at that level yet.

What you're describing windows as is gods gift.

Last time I checked XP, they were far from that too.
Not really friendly,
no HIG whatsoever (XP and Office 2003???? wtf????),
virus prone,
spyware prone.
Start menu without any sense. (why the fuck does every software have to make his submenu, can't M$ just make some restrictions base on software type?)
Control panels that mess up configuration to level of insanity (things can be done simpler you know).
Ultra friendly network browser that never displays what I wuold like, only what I wouldn't like.) You obviously don't know how network neighborhood looks when you enter into 50-100 computer network - yeah, I like those quadzillion shares and zillion printers that windows automount)

Oh yes. Getting slower with time.

And most of all my dear dorothy. Why the fuck there's no simple way to stop desktop notifications? (don't offer registry key or tweakit, you were talking about grandma)

You said you use antivirus, ad-aware and firefox. Does typical grandma install these?? Or she just uses what system offers?

p.s. I bet you buy software you use:)

Re:Won't be

[julesh]

Haha, what if the ghostscript driver it chooses for you isn't quite the right one?

What if the printer driver that WinXP chooses for you isn't quite the right one? Both problems are about as hard to solve, and roughly as common (i.e. they only happen if you have a very unusual model of printer).

What if only the second printer port is free on the back of your computer?

Huh? It's been a _long_ time since I saw a computer with two printer ports, and most people who aren't power users only have one printer. Besides, just about everyone's using USB these days.

You're bringing up problems here that only power users will see.

Re:Won't be

[pete-classic]

The ones that install effortlessly are hardware PostScript printers. The ones that suck use one of HP's many versions of PCL.

A real PostScript printer is worth every penny.

-Peter

Re:Won't be

[PhoenixFlare]

Oh, god. Some people really have too much time.

Because I actually replied and tried to address everything, I have too much time? Whatever.

You believe wrong.

Amazing logic! Truly, I have been humbled by your razor-sharp intellect.

Yeah, OO.o can't import some files. And that would be enough for some people. Instead of using native format.

Pretty much.

What you're describing windows as is gods gift.

Ah, yes. The wonderful Linux/OSS zealot reaction to anyone that claims Windows might actually be fairly usable.

Yes, I do think Windows is usable.

No, I do not think Windows is god's gift to mankind.

Yes, I think Windows has quite a few issues.

No, I do not think Linux is worthless.

That about covers it.

no HIG whatsoever (XP and Office 2003???? wtf????),

I don't recall mentioning anything about HIG in general, just specific programs.

Office 2003 may have flaws in the UI, but I still think it's better than what OO.org or Staroffice have achieved so far - and i've seen many other people voicing the same opinion. I'm sorry that you feel so upset by that.

virus prone,

Only, frankly, if you're an idiot, deliberately letting things get screwed up, or just generally not using common sense. If anything, Microsoft should share the blame with the users on this one.

If you actually use a slight bit of protection, don't open strange attachments in your email, and use some common sense about visiting the seedier parts of the Internet, it's pathetically easy to avoid getting a virus of any kind.

spyware prone.

See above.

Start menu without any sense. (why the fuck does every software have to make his submenu, can't M$ just make some restrictions base on software type?)

What makes no sense to you makes perfect sense to someone else.

Control panels that mess up configuration to level of insanity (things can be done simpler you know).

Maybe they can, but it sure as hell isn't under most flavors of Linux either. For anything non-trivial you still have to dive into text config files half the time, or deal with configuration tools that make absolutely no effort to explain what the setting you're changing actually does.

Ultra friendly network browser that never displays what I wuold like, only what I wouldn't like.)

Ahah! It doesn't work how you personally want it, so of course it must be total crap! Genius!

You obviously don't know how network neighborhood looks when you enter into 50-100 computer network

Actually, I do. And I also know how it looks with a network of about 2000 or so computers and printers. If you know where you're looking, and the admins don't have a completely nonsensical naming scheme, it's actually not too hard to find things.

If the admins/users have named all the devices with random arbitrary names...Well, who's fault is that?

Oh yes. Getting slower with time.

Mmmhmm. Have any actual benchmarks for that, or are you just spouting your personal opinion like fact again?

And most of all my dear dorothy. Why the fuck there's no simple way to stop desktop notifications? (don't offer registry key or tweakit, you were talking about grandma)

Why should there be a simple way to do that? If you're advanced and/or knowledgable enough to want all the notifications turned off, then you can do it the slightly harder way. Try here, tip #012. Only takes adding one value on one key in the registry.

You said you use antivirus, ad-aware and firefox. Does typical grandma install these?? Or she just uses what system offers?

Antivirus: If she bought a pre-made system, chances are very good that one was already installed. If she had someone build

Re:Won't be

[justsomebody]

Because I actually replied and tried to address everything, I have too much time? Whatever.

No, all the things you described you have to do with your Windows. Download this, install this. Download this, install this....

sarcasm: I can imagine every decent grandma does that between making breakfast.
another sarcasm: It's a DVD for me 1.5 minute of clicking if I don't wan't to select defaults (I always partition my disks as I wish and select packages I want), wait 10 more and installed.

Ahah! It doesn't work how you personally want it, so of course it must be total crap! Genius!

(snip - my comment)...

Actually, I do. And I also know how it looks with a network of about 2000 or so computers and printers. If you know where you're looking, and the admins don't have a completely nonsensical naming scheme, it's actually not too hard to find things.

If the admins/users have named all the devices with random arbitrary names...Well, who's fault is that?

Not talking about computers. Talking about share points that are found. And as such you soon get zillion example:"C on xxx" or "shared on YYYY" and such. Yeah I can imagine this admin:)

no HIG whatsoever

Yes, but OS without HIG is harder to comprehend for not techie people. Every keyboard shortcut different from software to software. Non-standard toolbar icons. Sometimes software doesn't even support basic theme (aka. draws non-standard shaped buttons, uses non-theme colors...)

What makes no sense to you makes perfect sense to someone else.

Yeah, grandma knows that her burning software is under Programs - Ahead - Nero

virus, spyware

Yeah, that's why Outlook and IE are unadvised as unsecure:) Because MS counts that everybody will install FF and TB. Grandma doesn;;t know what security hole is.

Mmmhmm. Have any actual benchmarks for that, or are you just spouting your personal opinion like fact again?

You don't need them. First of the reasons why this happens is registry. More you install more registry gets stuffed. And bigger registry gets, longer searches are taking to find keys. Uninstall doesn't delete keys mostly. Sometimes they don't delete even files. Remember no Cleansweep. It's grandma we're talking. You could say that grandma wouldn't install anything. Wrong. Explorer does that for her while she's browsing internet.

Why should there be a simple way to do that? If you're advanced and/or knowledgable enough to want all the notifications turned off, then you can do it the slightly harder way. Try here, tip #012. Only takes adding one value on one key in the registry.

I know that, I know! I guess you're not talking about grandma anymore. Grandma won't edit registry or play with TweakUI.

No doubt you think there's something horribly wrong with the fact that I (or other people) don't use completely free software.

???? Here you got something wrong. I don't have anything against proprietary software. Hell I've got for over $20000 of software in my own company

REMEBER! WE TALK ABOUT GRANDMA and basic system usability for her

p.s. Once any system is tweaked for user, everything gets simpler. Hell I set up RH7.2 for my father and he had no problems. Was RH7.2 user friendly??? No way. Why he had no problem? Because I made sure everything is as it should be.

Now he's got Ubuntu. And everything just works, I don't think that I installed him anything but java for browser and gstreamer plugins (that means one apt-get install ...., or if you preffer selecting it in synaptic). Everything else is base Ubuntu install (you can't choose anything but setup, write who you are and set internet connection). Is ubuntu now defined as usable? Not yet. It will when I won't need to install computer for my father. Everything should just work. (not like OSX, that one is even worster than Windows, and before you reply. I have two OSX macs. And I have to use them on regular base)

Re:Won't be

[justsomebody]

p.s. to clear up some things.

I'm not bashing Windows. They just don't work as they should.

My rule is:
There are three major computer systems now.
One that is not there, - Linux
One that looks and works like crap, - Windows
and one that never works (even though they say Just Works) - OSX

Personally I preffer Linux because it is at least moving in the right direction.
Windows do work and look like crap, but at least they do its job as they should.
OSX is a personal hatred of mine, slow and everything is always breaking. From update to update, it always surprises you with new bugs.

Is any of those usable for grandma? No. By idea OSX is the nearest, but implementation is completely different story.

Oh well...

[grub]

Now that Linux is mainstream I'll have to turn my back on it and find another cause to fight for. Has Netcraft confirmed the BSD rumours?

Re:Oh well...

[grassy_knoll]

Now that Linux is mainstream I'll have to turn my back on it and find another cause to fight for. Has Netcraft confirmed the BSD rumours?

Well, if it's unpopular causes you're after, I understand the Democratic Party is always looking for volunteers.

[badum-ching]

Re:Oh well...

[mr. marbles]

Bring back BeOS is the way to go man. That platform is deader than dead.

Re:Oh well...

[Sneakabout]

~45% is unpopular? Wow, mass media has really won...

Re:Oh well...

[chthon]

You could always try with MMURTL...

Re:Oh well...

[SEE]

OS/2 man, OS/2.

free software's mainstreamness based on revenue?

[Lord Bitman]

Excuse me, wtf? Shouldnt it be based on usage? It's FREE.

I won't believe this

[ValuJet]

until Netcraft confirms it.

2008?

[grasshoppa]

So...doesn't that mean it'll be mainstream in 2008?

Assuming the prediction is right.

Hell. I predict I will be a stud by 2008, because I predict I will be having sex CONSTANTLY.

Re:2008?

[Anonymous Coward]

you are dreaming.. geeks never have sex. so with saying that linux is a geek and will never get any either.

linux will never be mainstream imo unless some other large software company goes bankrupt.. but i doubt they will since they get sex constantly.

Re:2008?

[savagedome]

I predict I will be having sex CONSTANTLY

Yeah. In 2008, zero will still remain a constant.

Re:2008?

[DarkHelmet]

I predict I will be having sex CONSTANTLY.

With your hand? ;)

Re:2008?

[Linker3000]

Zero will still remain a constant - so will PI, hey: Sex + PI...wasn't that a film...American Pie!? It all meakes perfect sense now!

Re:2008?

[Anonymous Coward]

you deserve cancer.

ummmm

[codeconfused]

Tell me something I don't klnow

Re:ummmm

[one9nine]

There is no "L" in know.

Re:ummmm

[DrLZRDMN]

You migh not know this

Re:ummmm

[violetlight]

Know-L, Know-L, the angel did say...

well..

[soccerisgod]

Thank you captain obvious. I'm sure nobody would have figured that out on their own. Sometimes I really wonder why people keep paying analysts at all. All they appear to do is churn out totally baseless and unrealistic estimates and statistics or state the obvious.

Re:well..

[DrSkwid]

thanks mr obvious for pointing that out

Re:well..

[LetterJ]

(Score:-1, Unintentionally Ironic)

Re:well..

[Subjective]

Analysts read information sources (news papers? what secret news source do analysts use?) and produce, well, analyses.
My parents, for instance, are working hard in the IT industry. In fact, they work so hard, on existing (NT) systems, that they wouldn't know Linux is growing so fast if they didn't have some concise business newsletter to tell them so.

How would an old-running company, whose core business is not IT, know it's using an out-dated system, and not the 'industry standard'?
The more companies repeat how Linux is growing in market share and quickly becoming standard (and god knows I read that), the more it becomes consensus. It has to be repeated ad nauseum, before old businesses take it up

Re:well..

[mr. marbles]

cause we're a nervous, speculative, fickle people.

So?!?

[natron 2.0]

So does this mean linux is not cool any more?

Re:So?!?

[Surt]

Yep, I'm afraid all those nerds slaving away in their parent's basements are no longer cool.

Re:So?!?

[charleste]

Actually, they're still cool if they do their coding on a C64.

Re:So?!?

[burns210]

Sure does. Time to move to FreeBSD

Re:So?!?

[Krach42]

Yeah, that's why I'm switching to OpenBSD. Does anyone know where the Microsoft-bashing anti-Linux pro-OpenBSD Slashdot is?

Re:So?!?

[jonbryce]

http://undeadly.org/

Strict

[paranode]

Linux won't be mainstream until I can set up a Linux box for my grandmother and leave it knowing she'll be fine with it for an indefinite period of time.

If that's your definition of mainstream then I don't think even Windows is ready.

Re:Strict

[Anonymous Coward]

What about Myth? That's pretty close. It's got a browser. It's got email. It's easy to use.

Re:Strict

[Anonymous Coward]

For windows leave the network wire unplugged. For linux leave the power cable unplugged. Everyone will be fine =P

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[Quasar1999]

Free? No... the term 'free software' is misleading... it isn't really Free... there is all sorts of revenue tied to products that either use said free software, or support for said free software... heck even the hardware that runs the free software is tied in... so it shouldn't be on usage, but rather revenue... since the software generates a lot of revenue... think of how much revenue iTunes generates Apple... and they don't charge a dime for iTunes... same sorta idea...

Too Soon

[clinko]

This is way too soon to say it's mainstream.

Hell, people don't even think netscape/mozilla/firefox is mainstream and it have 20% or more of the market.

Re:Too Soon

[Ironsides]

netscape/mozilla/firefox does not have 20% of the market. It has less than 8 percent. http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1706694,00.as p IE still retains 92.9% market share. The number you are thinking of is that netscape/mozilla/firefox increased their market share BY 26% at one point over the summer, NOT to 26%.

Re:Too Soon

[csbruce]

netscape/mozilla/firefox does not have 20% of the market. It has less than 8 percent.

I think the parent was referring to other reports which indicate that Mozilla, et al. are approaching 20% of users of tech-savvy sites. I'm sure Ma and Pa Kettle will still be using IE 3.0 for the next 20 years.

Re:Too Soon

[Anonymous Coward]

It just depends where you get your stats from. w3schools has firefox at 17.5%, with Mozilla at 4.3%.

http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.a sp

Re:Too Soon

[TRACK-YOUR-POSITION]

8% sounds more realistic to me than 20%, but its worth noting that that article is 2 months old--and precedes the release of Firefox 1.0

Re:Too Soon

[bedessen]

92.9%? Three significant figures? Come on. The browser statistics are going to vary depending on the site they were taken from. There is no one "browser statistic" because it's different for each site. Different sites have vastly different percentages, because of different audiences. So you can't really say x% of the market is one thing, you have to qualify it by saying "x% of visitors to Y use Z"

And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[brunes69]

... right above the article, declaring how Windows is cheaprer, less error prone, and more cost effective than Linux.

These same ironic banners are on Slashdot all the time. It's hilarious.

Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[Master Bait]

... right above the article, declaring how Windows is cheaprer, less error prone, and more cost effective than Linux.

Those articles never take in to consideration how much money it takes to train Linux users to use Windows or how many hair-pulling hours it takes for people to convert their OpenOffice Calc macros to Excel.

Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[DrSkwid]

cheaprer and less error prone hmm

btw. what are these ads of which you speak?

Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[brunson]

They also never seem to take into account the time the entire company is down because the IT department is trying to disinfect the building of the latest skr1p7 k1dd13z virus.

Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[PatrickThomson]

Shut up, slashdot is fleecing MS for lots of advertising revenue, 60% of the users block them with firefox and the other 40% are forced into using IE at work. This is one of the funniest things I've encountered for a long long time.

Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[DrSkwid]

Personally I prefer my comedy with a bit more work on the script but sounds like you are easily pleased.

Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add...

[Technician]

declaring how Windows is cheaprer, less error prone, and more cost effective than Linux.

Yea, right...

One of my Windows 98 boxes just lunched itself and ate the contents of several subdirectories. I was backing up one machine to the box, when one of my kids decided to use it to jump on the Internet. Needless to say, massive crash and data loss.

I know the cost of Windows, the endless patches, the endless errors caused by vunerabilities.

I'm much more willing to try SUSE 9.1 than re-install Windows for free. The reinstall is free if you don't count your time and trouble of re-configureing it and getting all the patches. I am looking for something less error prone and cost effective. It's not Windows that I'm looking to. I've seen it's expense. Windows is not cheap. It's certanly prone to errors.

It's mainstream now?

[Gillious]

Darn, guess I'm going to have to use something less mainstream like SkyOS.

Re:It's mainstream now?

[Chuck Bucket]

Or FreeBSD, which is running better than ever now. It may my new server, replacing my beloved Gentoo box.

CB

Re:It's mainstream now?

[Blue-Footed Boobie]

Isn't SkyOS just Linux anyhow?

They should get some sponsor $$s from Sky Vodka.

Re:It's mainstream now?

[Anonymous Coward]

...or a Mac. That way you can be sure of your elite status. :)

Re:It's mainstream now?

[Hexydes]

SkyOS is not Linux. SkyOS is built from scratch, and is not based on Linux in any way.

Prediction - Observation

[DoubleDownOnEleven]

How is it an "observation" that Linux is mainstream when "research has predicted" that revenue will increase a lot? Not that Linux will be at some point, or is getting there, but that it IS mainsteam.

To me it's not really an observation, just a...what's the word... oh yeah, prediction.

Maybe I just don't get it.

Sellouts.

[Brandon One]

I used to see Linux play in basements and living rooms. Now they have gone mainstream. They signed that $35 billion record deal. Damn sellouts.

Re:Sellouts.

[Anonymous Coward]

Please, you couldn't see this coming? I knew this was coming when all the gimmickery (sound, bells, whistles, etc). was added. Linux started getting to good for a cli - it always turns out that way :-(

Interesting...

[Chuck Bucket]

but now I suspect we'll get a ton of "My grandma wouldn't be able to run Linux, so it's not mainstream" when on a server level, it's ready to play; given a fully level playing field. Problem is Winders is too entrenched, and IBM and Solaris are trying to appear to be on Linux's side, while still hawking their own *nix solutions. Still, it won't be long before that breaks down, I give it a few years, so I think the 2008 comment is fair.

And setup right, I could make a Gentoo box that a grandma could use; it's all in the preparation.

CB

Re:Interesting...

[Gordonjcp]

Does your Grandma need to be a Windows admin to use Windows? Windows is difficult to install, because you need to find all these drivers, and know how to partition disks, and stuff like that.

Oh, wait - how often does your grannie actually *install* Windows (or Linux)? Hm, I'm guessing not very often at all. If it's just a case of "Click the icon and browse the Internet" you could set up *any* OS to be ready for the desktop.

Re:Interesting...

[Anonymous Coward]

And setup right, I could make a Gentoo box that a grandma could use; it's all in the preparation.

Oh really? Please do. Then do it again, and again, and... multiply by 200 million, and you might have a wedge into the desktop market. Say genius, if you could do it, why hasn't a company done it yet? Hmmm? Linux is not mainstream, and may never be. Until it actually performs like IDC predicts it will, Linux hasn't made it.

Re:Interesting...

[cg0def]

well for all those that claim that linux is not that user friendly I have just a couple of words , Linksys, embeded devices (i.e. mp3 players and other pocket media players).
The article is very right that linux makes sence to a lot of companies however I disagree with the statement that linux is not going to take over the desktop market. Linux was and is built as a desktop system and just because people use it on servers means nothing. As a matter of fact certain unix distributions and bsd will probably work better for things like clusters and other large servers. Anyway, I think that linux distros like Novell's Linux Desktop will eventually become a common view in corporate offices and I compleatelly disagree that OSS will be a common part of Windows desktops. The people that have to port OSS to windows often dislike the process and software does not get ported very fast. Just because Mozilla does not follow the same rules does not mean that the rest of the OSS doesn't also. Mozilla was started as a cross platform software and has never been anything less. However, projects like gimp and xchat are based on open GUIs and that does not fit very well in the windows world. Xchat's maintainer already started charging for the windows version. The reason given was that it's a major pain to port the software (for him). Gimp on the other hand is ported by 3rd parties and some of the ports also charge for the work done. Windows is build so that the system is *shielded* from the user as much as possible. This leads to very few points of entry and a very nasty OS for tweaking.
There are a couple of other things that the article misses like that on embeded devices linux has a pretty good presence and that latelly companies like Cisco (they own Linksys) have started puting on routers.
Oh yeah and if you think that linux is hard or weird or whatever you should probably recal the time when you started using Windows. I bet you it was weird and hard too. Why should you expect Linux to be easier to learn than Windows?

Re:Interesting...

[Chuck Bucket]

Relax Grandpa, note I said I could do it for my Grandma, not for EVERYONEs! My point was, Linux CAN be easy to use, if you have someone to set it up for you. Honestly, I can SETUP a Gnome desktop to work basically like OS X. Plug in a camera, have things like Hald and D-bus in the background detect it, launch Gphoto2 and start downloading. I've also starting using Gamin in place for Famd, it's much better. Change a file, save a new one, bam, it shows the change in Nautilus immediately.

Oh, and thanks for calling me a genuis, but I don't consider myself that smart, I'm just inquisitive. Oh, and I'm proud of you for learning how to bold words! It sure puts me in my place. ;)

CB

Re:Interesting...

[brunson]

You forgot TiVo. Mine's pretty damn user friendly.

Re:Interesting...

[Anonymous Coward]

You did that with four commas and three line breaks. Well done.

Re:Interesting...

[Anonymous Coward]

It doesn't matter if Grandma can use it. The important thing is that the Grandson can set it up for her, or reinstall it, or help her use it. Or that Grandma can play The Sims! The fragmented world of Linux, as powerful as it is, can't compete with a single company solution like Windows with such a huge software base.

Horses for courses, and Linux is a horse designed to run a different race to Windows.

Re:Interesting...

[Anonymous Coward]

I made a Gentoo box for my grandma, but she died while KDE was compiling.

Re:Interesting...

[Anonymous Coward]

I made a Gentoo box for my grandma, but she died while KDE was compiling

Dang! You should have used GNOME

Re:Interesting...

[Anonymous Coward]

She'll be dead by the time Open Office is done compiling.

Re:Interesting...

[westlake]

well for all those that claim that linux is not that user friendly I have just a couple of words , Linksys, embeded devices (i.e. mp3 players and other pocket media players)

It shouldn't be difficult to make a single-purpose device with very limited user options easy to use. That said, it is the user interface and not the O/S which sells the iPod.

The people that have to port OSS to windows often dislike the process and software does not get ported very fast. Just because Mozilla does not follow the same rules does not mean that the rest of the OSS doesn't also.

Foxfire has visibility and funding. OpenOffice has visibility and funding. Because both have been ported to Windows.

Windows is build so that the system is *shielded* from the user as much as possible.

Which is what most users want, and have been willing to pay for.

Oh yeah and if you think that linux is hard or weird or whatever you should probably recal the time when you started using Windows. I bet you it was weird and hard too. Why should you expect Linux to be easier to learn than Windows?

Because it enters the desktop market ten years after Windows 95 and twenty years after the Mac?

It's a good thing

[Anonymous Coward]

I am glad they think so since I just turned up 250 thin client desktops this week running SAP R3, hate to think I am running on a non mainstream os. But wait the os did not cost any money so I hope they are talking about hardware.

Re:It's a good thing

[Chuck Bucket]

Thin clients are where it's at. Today there is no reason anyone needs a full computer tower at their desk: go thin clients with Blades back in the server room. Everytime we hire someone I just cringe at how much hardware gets thrown their way.

This looks like the future if you ask me: Clear Cube.

CB

Re:It's a good thing

[Anonymous Coward]

Blade PC's might be the future, but I sure don't see that ClearCube or HP's offering is -- proprietary hardware top to bottom. HP blades are running on Efficieons as well. I suspect you can cram twice as many blades in a rack from the smaller fans needed alone.

Anyway, the tax rules on PC depreciation make PC's practically free. That's why they continue to be used the way they are.

Re:It's a good thing

[Chuck Bucket]

Yeah, I do agree with you there. I think most of those blades are far under utilizied, and would work better as simple file servers so multiple accounts could attach access them on the fly. It all comes back to the same thing though; there are TOO many computers sitting idle, or not being used to their full potential in today's offices.

CB

Well thank heavens!

[Anonymous Coward]

I guess I can finally start using it now...

competitors

[codepunk]

Be quiet we hope our manufacturing competitors read that banner and believe it, let them spend the money on a buggy os while we cut our prices to drive them out of the market.

No way

[paranode]

All the cool antisocial elitist nerds will be using Hurd, man! Any time now...

Re:No way

[tomstdenis]

Freedos?

Seriously though... this is a totally bad story for /. as most of the peeps here are closet windows users or diehard linux/bsd users.

IDC says Linux is legit? That's interesting as it's been my OS of choice for the last couple of years. It's the only thing I'll run on my amd64 too. So it's really just preaching to the choir at this point.

Tom

Re:No way

[Anonymous Coward]

Slashdot, preaching to the choir? I'm shocked, SHOCKED!

Re:No way

[IllForgetMyNickSoonA]

I suppose the IDC reports are not meant for the average /. reader, but rather for "decision makers" (read: PHBs). Sad as it is, the most managers pay much greater attention to what professional analysts are saying, than to the oppinion of own tech departments.

Having the IDC report in your hand, it should become somewhat easier to introduce Linux in the company you're working for. I say way to go, we need more such papers!

Re:No way

[Dan Ost]

I know some who've migrated to Plan 9 and Inferno because Linux is too
boring.

Re:No way

[KlomDark]

What is the deal with this HURD thing? I've been hearing about Gnu HURD for a few years now, and have never seen anything (early beta, extreme alpha, anything) about it. Is it anything but some vague plans on paper?

Re:No way

[Anonymous Coward]

Preachin to the choir hear too. And when they say people are slowly moving to desktop linux; again preaching to the choir.
I've been active on justlinux.com for over two years now, and one thing I've noticed is that their userbase is ever growing. And the questions, no offense guys, are getting dumber. Dumber questions means more new users. More new users means more guys trying linux.
Maybe you have to live in the trenches to see victory, but I'll tell ya inroads are being made. Good solid inroads.
One day, there will be people running different Operating Systems, and you will have to ask:
"are you running, linux, bsd, Windows, or Haiku or etc?" (I exclude Apple, cause they'll always have their own tech support that they do alone).

Re:No way

[spectre_240sx]

Well, their website has a decent amount of information about it. It's being actively developed and Debian is providing a binary distrobution of it right now. I don't know whole lot about it, but it seems like an interesting project.

On The Server Side Maybe

[thasmudyan]

From personal observations of customers and business people I can attest that, yes, Linux (and OSS in general) is widely known and most people take it seriously.

However, I guess many slashdotters (myself included) are already thinking about desktop. And that's still a long way to go. Even Firefox has still a long way ahead of itself, and I consider it to be one of the most well-known OSS applications out there. It will be a long time until non-geek people start using OSS seriously on the desktop.

Then again, I live in Germany, the clocks work differently here - maybe it's different elsewhere?

Re:On The Server Side Maybe

[Bastian]

Here in the US, it's the same story. A lot of people have heard of Firefox, but most people I know are sticking with IE for a variety of reasons such as sloth and a general uncomfortableness about installing new software on their computer.

(Unless it it involves a purple gorilla or something like that. I _really_ don't understand this, but I have a feeling that hidden somewhere in the amazing pervasiveness of spyware - despite all the privacy and spam memes floating around the Net - is the secret to OSS on the desktop.)

Anyway, I think the best way to get people using Firefox is to convince PC manufacturers (Dell being the Holy Grail) to bundle Firefox on their new PCs, with a nice link to it on the desktop or something like that. It would think that, considering all the useless crap they _pay_ to bundle with their compuers, they would love to be able to bundle a buzzword for free.

Re:On The Server Side Maybe

[Anonymous Coward]

Even Firefox has still a long way ahead of itself

It's task somewhat simplified by the fact that its leading competitor has an even longer way to go...

(If you meant in terms of functionality/stability/features, not market share.)

Re:On The Server Side Maybe

[Joe Tie.]

It will be a long time until non-geek people start using OSS seriously on the desktop.

I think it depends on whether you mean that it'll be a long time until some non-geeks use linux, or until one can quiz people on the street and find a large percentage of linux users. The later I agree with, but not the former. I've found non-geeks in particular sometimes make the easiest transitions to linux. With geeks there's the game problem, and we often seem to have a lot of odd programs sitting around which are tied to one platform. Non-geeks on the other hand, on average don't use their computers for that much out of the ordinary. On her request I installed Debian on my fiancee's computer, not a computer geek by any means, a couple months back. Aside from setting up photoshop under wine the transition was pretty seamless.

Re:On The Server Side Maybe

[MtViewGuy]

I think I know a number of reasons why Linux has become very popular for server machines:

1. The per-server cost is much less expensive than other solutions.

2. Linux has been written to run on several different types of server configurations (Beowulf clustering of many server machines, running on supercomputers, and so on). This means many supercomputers now run Linux as their primary operating system.

3. IBM has successfully pushed the use of Linux on their own AS/400, S/390 and other IBM-built "big iron" machines, which has really spiked up Linux use.

4. Because server machines don't really need "easy auto configuration for new hardware" like desktop machines do, there is not a pressing need for high overhead of a GUI interface and ACPI Plug and Play support (and the time and expense needed to develop code for such support).

I see Linux continuing to make inroads in the server business until it could take the vast majority of server machines within a few years.

Dont Wait for IDC to pull any good numbers

[Moulinneuf]

"revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008"

By 2008 , Hum no , or it would mean that whe lost market share.

Last year Gnu/Linux took 7.5% of the Desktop market share. Apple with its 3% is worth 135 billion ( apple software + the company graviting around )

Thats not all Gnu/Linux is also used more on the server side and is becoming the uncontested king of the Clusters OS ( 95% of the new super cluster will or use it as it OS ).

Another segment they kindly forget is electronics ( TV , video , dvd , Radio , etc ) where Gnu/Linux is more and more used in embeded systems.

And also my favorite the Cellular sector where everyone beside RIM ( blackberry ) is starting to be using a GNU/Linux base.

Gnu/Linux passed the 38 Billion profit line about 2 years ago ...

Re:Dont Wait for IDC to pull any good numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

Looks like someone read the interview of RMS.

Re:Dont Wait for IDC to pull any good numbers

[Moulinneuf]

the M stands for Moulinneuf ;-)

uh

[Anonymous Coward]

check out fedora ya old a-rab

Re:uh

[FCAdcock]

How about SuSe, my dad ACCIDENTALLY installed Suse on his laptop on day... Ok, how's that for an easy install. He friggin ACCIDENTALLY installed it.

Best part about it was that after about a day he decided that he didn't want me to put Windows back on it, and he has been using Linux for about 3 months just fine.

He can even use his wireless card which took more than an hour to install in MS. He just plugged it into the pcmcia slot and it beeped at him with Linux.

Re:uh

[NullProg]

I've ACCIDENTALLY had the same thing happen to me at work. I tripped over an ethernet cable in the lab and Bang, SuSE got installed. Lost two W2000 servers this way :)

Enjoy,

Re:uh

[julesh]

I tripped over an ethernet cable in the lab and Bang, SuSE got installed.

I've never had a SuSE installation as the result of a bang before, although I did "have a lot of fun".

Perhaps you forgot to terminate your network cable?

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[Silver Sloth]

It's free speach, not free beer.

do the proclamation in 2008 then

[js3]

someone shoud tell these guys mainstream is not how much money you make...

Re:do the proclamation in 2008 then

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not about how much money you make? Were McDonalds hamburgers mainstream until they made money? Or Ford's cars, or Windows, or Green Day, or any other main stream product? In industry, being mainstream is ALWAYS about how much money a product makes. I don't think open source products are any different.

Maybe you're confusing that which you like about Linux with that which makes something mainstream.

In Korea....

[parvenu74]

Lemme guess: in Korea, only old people run lin... oh screw it. This joke is getting too old already.

Linux Desktop more mainstream than when we started

[NZheretic]

See Linux on the Desktop at work and worth it:

Both above vendors require per seat licensing, and can lock the enterprise in at the IT management level. But both also offer many of the same advantages of Linux on the desktop for a fraction of the effort and inside knowledge required.

.

Chapelle Show

[Anonymous Coward]

It was mainstream when it made it on the Chapelle Show:

"If they give you a Windows disk, tell them we only run Mac. If they give you a Mac disk, tell them we only run windows. IF they give you both, tell them we use linux. And if they give you all three, tell them the computers are down."

Re:Chapelle Show

[dukeisgod]

Hilarious sketch, but of course a real geek would have no problem reading a windows disk with mac or linux, a linux disk on mac, etc. Unless you just are feeling lazy. And a good geek could probably come up with a more BOFHish excuse anyhow.

Re:Chapelle Show

[Spoing]

1. Hilarious sketch, but of course a real geek would have no problem reading a windows disk with mac or linux, a linux disk on mac, etc. Unless you just are feeling lazy. And a good geek could probably come up with a more BOFHish excuse anyhow.

True, though most non-geeks wouldn't know that.

Chapelle even mentioning Linux was a hoot...definately mainstream.

Re:Chapelle Show

[dominion]

Are we talking about Against Me!? I thought we were talking about Linux.

(Sigh, I used to actually go see Against Me in basement shows and living rooms. I saw them with an audience of 15 people once. Now they're touring with Anti-Flag and tickets are $20. Sucks.)

Linux != Open Source

[Anonymous Coward]

He says linux is mainstream but then the rest of the article is about open source software.

Linux is NOT mainstream. Open source software is.

Re:Linux != Open Source

[agraupe]

I'd say this would be more accurately put as Open Source != Linux. Linux is open source, but open source is not linux. It's like those stupid logic questions on IQ tests... it seems like the /. editors haven't passed.

nothing like a fat dump to make you feel good..

[Newtlink]

this feels good, though.. linux is real..

now the redmond-cretins will incorporate it, bastardize it and try to fuck-up everything inbetween..

i'll use whatever is in front of me to get what i want and need done.. i don't care what it is.. VMS, OSX, Linux, XP, OS/2, DOS..

information is the drug, and the OS is just the syringe..

happiness is a full spike..

Linus

[simgod]

Hey, communism was mainstream too - take that you cat breeder.
Linus=Stalin
Stallman=Trotsky
Linux=Communism
this_post="-1"

Re:Linus

[Anonymous Coward]

this_post="-1"

Well, 1/4 isn't bad, right?

Fringe benefits

[orthogonal]

IDC analyst Al Gillen [said] "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream."

Gillen went on to chortle, "But Linux geeks are not mainstream, and while they will continue to belong to the fringe, then will never ever be players with the laaadies!

On hearing this, the assembled contingent of bearded, pasty, pot-bellied Linux geeks hung their heads in shame, silently acknowledging the truth of Gillen's words, while wishing they could, like the 7th level Magic-Users they aspired to be, quietly teleport back to their mother's basements and their collections of what they pretentiously refer to as "graphic novels".

I keed!, I keed! Truly I love you all! /Triumph the Insult Comic Dog

Re:Fringe benefits

[Beyond_GoodandEvil]

Wow, that's pretty funny, except to know that it takes a 7th level magic user to be able to cast the 4th level teleport spell, means you too have also played some D&D.

Re:Fringe benefits

[Anonymous Coward]

To quote Sledge Hammer, "Real men don't need women."

$35 billion by 2008?

[sulli]

Do they just redo these estimates and adjust for inflation every year? These were the guys who said online pet product sales would be a $2 billion market by 2002.

MS Help may not be great

[Anonymous Coward]

But man pages are the ultimate bitch and TLDP is usually outdated and useless.

IDC gets money from Microsoft, and....

[hansreiser]

they have a long history of predicting that Linux growth will be lower than what one would reasonably expect given the previous quarters at various free software companies. Remember back when Linux was doubling in a year or less, and they were predicting 27% growth?

They get a lot of press, and by pretending to be extolling Linux, and aided by naive free software advocates who go around giving publicity to their numbers, they actually succeed in making it look a lot smaller than it is.

Microsoft is notorious for spending money on dishonest pr flacks.

I wish there were real numbers on Linux usage growth over the last year. Surely it isn't doubling anymore, but I bet it is still gaining market share.

Hans
www.namesys.com

Wrong terminology

[microtoph]

Shouldn't somebody tell them that's "Gnu-slash-Linux" ?

So...

[Tufriast]

Does this mean we'll finally start seeing direct ports of the most popular gaming titles? Leisure Suit Larry for teh win.

Don't Forget This Cost Either

[Anonymous Coward]

...how much money it takes to train Linux users to use Windows...

They also leave out the financial impact of left-handed, one-eye squirrels who infiltrate offices using Windows to surreptitiously delete random files... because this is a similarly small number.

Dumbass.

Re:Don't Forget This Cost Either

[Anonymous Coward]

left-handed, one-eye squirrels who infiltrate offices using Windows to surreptitiously delete random files

Oh so THAT'S what was happening the other day!

Ubuntu? WTF???

[Anonymous Coward]

Ubuntu linux? You're kidding, right?

Was someone so unhappy with the other 1500 distros that they just *had* to create yet another distro? And what a great name too... was "kumbaya" linux taken already?

Are there any *VALID* reasons to create a new distro anymore, aside from sheer boredom or ego? I would think it would be enough to have Red Hat, Fedora, Suse, Madrake, Debian, Gentoo, Slackware, Sun's JDS Linux, Knoppix, Mepis.... oh screw it -- you get the point!

Re:Ubuntu? WTF???

[geordie_loz]

I take it you haven't used ubuntu. by far the most user friendly and well compiled distro I've seen.

Re:Ubuntu? WTF???

[oliverthered]

I don't think that was his point.
On Mandrake I get lots of sexyish configuration tools.
On Gentoo I get portage.

Why the hell didn't gentoo just reuse Mandrakes configuration tools so I would have portage and sexy config out the box?

It would be nice if 'ubuntu' Knoppix, Gnopix and debian got together one day and came up with a UKGDeb distro that solved everyones problems.

Re:Ubuntu? WTF???

[secretsquirel]

Because mandrake users don't care about compiling thier own code and would rather use the quicker, just as functional portage inspired urpmi. And gentoo users would rather edit the config files themselves rather than relly on sexy config tools, or at least thats how all the gentoo fanboys make it sound.

Re:Ubuntu? WTF???

[oliverthered]

1: You don't have to compile anything with gentoo, most standard packages are avaiable as binaries.
2: Is there even a /. poll to back you up on the 'gentoo users would rather edit the config files themselves'

Microsoft monopoly

[zymano]

If the Microsoft monopoly were really broken up by forcing software companies to port their code/drivers to another OS or standard for working on all operating systems then I would think Linux would get a big boost but so would other operating systems. Before eveyone jumps on me , think about this, Microsoft owns the monopoly but software(and Hardware) companies are co-conspirators. They don't give any other operating system a chance. The DOJ(dep. of justice) didn't do the job, period ! The verdict was a joke.

Likewise with windows

[EnigmaticSource]

Now, I'll admit that you can run windows without having a personal sysadmin. Even so far as things will work when you do it all by yourself. But, there's this little problem... the difference between what works, and what works right. Working right will lend itself to future reliability, and as a windows system admin I can state that virtually no user can accomplish such a feat. Most enterprise windows software needs to run as local administrator, making it virtually impossible for even I to to things right. Now you'll probably argue that a lot of useful linux utilities like root permissions... but it is not _never_ entirely nessicary. Sudo and SETUID properly applied will enable such badly written binaries to function and remain secure. (Alas there is not functional equivalant in windows, don't bother mentioning runasEveryone needs to either be a sysadmin, or needs to know one... otherwise things may work, but not work right.

odd timing

[jaxon6]

I just finished an email with a co-worker from three jobs ago, when I was a consultant doing systems and network stuff for small-medium companies in Mass., RI and Conn. Back then I was all-linux, but I worked on IBMs AS/400s and NT/2k, and rarely got any Unix work on the job. I eventually left because my boss wasn't pushing linux hard enough for my liking.
Anyways, I just finished an email in which my co-worker proclaimed this year to be the year of linux. Coming from him, I am forced to take a step back from my daily linux work-life and look at it from his perspective.
To those who don't find MS to be an abomination of all that is good and holy, and simply use what technology is best for the times, this year is the equivalent 96(or 97) for NT. This was a year or so before I got into the business(high school and all), but from what I make of the timeline, NT was _IT_ back then. It was a server, it was somewhat stable(compared to Windows), it was user-friendly(compared to Unix/AS400), it was fully 32-bit. It ran on Alphas for christ's sake.
What high hopes it held.
Now, though, I am worried about what comes next. It took 8 years for what I knew to be the next big thing to become the next big thing. Am I now so deep into linux that I won't be able to see what's set to surpass it until it's here? I'm worried I will turn into those 'NT guys' from 96 or so who saw linux as a handicapped os and summarily dismissed it. Of course, it didn't even support 2-gigabyte files back then, so maybe they had a point.
Time will have to tell. I saw one computing mini-revolution coming years ahead of the mainstream; I hope to be able to see the next also.

Re:odd timing

[djSpinMonkey]

Wow! +1 Insightful! You mean... when Microsoft released an OS and said, "That's our server OS," lots of people ran it on servers?

You really saw that one coming, man.

Re:odd timing

[mikaelhg]

Remember, Linux is more of a process than a product.

The process will go on and produce much goodness and the product will change with times.

Re:odd timing

[mrchaotica]

It's okay; the next "next big thing" is HURD! ; )

Re:odd timing

[T-Ranger]

In 1996 Windows NT wasn't compeating against Unix, or AS/400. It was compeating against Netware, Banyan, and the likes. Netware was also 32 bit, and from version 4.0 on (if not earlier), SMP capable - at no extra cost.

It was bad enough back then with people who diddnt know WTF they were talking about; "All the world is Microsoft", but to attempt to record history this way, in the clear light of day is simply unacceptable. Netware 4.0 was released in 1993. It wasent untill at least Windows 2000, with AD, that MS things even came close to comparing with Novell products.

Re:odd timing

[Abattoir]

OS/2 Warp will make a come back, don't worry. I'm sure IBM will get right back on development of OS/2 and forget this whole Linux thing.

Re:odd timing

[Bert64]

Microsoft never claimed to have better products, or even products on the same level.. Their claim was that, for what most people used novell for (file and printer sharing) their solution could do the job and was cheaper and easier to use.. They also used their stranglehold over the clients to try and stifle novell.
Now opensource is doing the same thing, consider openoffice, it may not have all the features of msoffice right now, but it certainly has all the features the vast majority of users require, and is far cheaper.

So like,

[Sevn]

When does the movie starring Ben Afflec come out?

Err..

[Anonymous Coward]

Revenue and net worth are not the same thing.

Re:Err..

[Moulinneuf]

"Revenue and net worth are not the same thing. "

Try me monkey ?

http://www.dwheeler.com/sloc/

It would cost over $1 billion for Red Hat Linux 7.1

http://distrowatch.com/stats.php

Currently, there are a total of 370 Linux distributions

370 X 1 billion = 370 Billion

Just for starters ... for the net worth

Mandrake-Linux as 60 million download.

60 million X 2$ per cd X 4 ( free version on the net # of CD). = 480 million

480 X 20 Distribution ( the number of distribution that get that many download )

9 600 000 000 /2 for good measure = 4.3 billion of revenue from the sale of cd.

20 billion of Gnu/Linux servers sold Last year
( IBM , Dell , HP , etc ... )

370 distribution pulled at least 5 billion in revenu togheter.

Gnu/Linux related book sale ( more then one title , subject ) another 5 billion.

I already got around 35 billion and I havent started to scratch the Services , Hardware sales , Gnu/Linux software , Games , etc ...

But hey I must be the one who is wrong in its numbers , I probably dont have all the data that they have , plus the one that make me say its more , because not everyone report there GNU/Linux income. I must be missing the diebold data from Florida and Ohio ...

documentation from peripheral vendors.

[sputnikid]

Linux can be considered mainstream once printer, scanner and digital camera manufacturers include Linux troubleshooting in the manuals that come with the hardware, and actively support Linux on their support phone numbers.

Right now only a select few barely include Linux drivers. Nevermind the bundled applications that many "grandmas" use under Windows or MacOS.

Re:documentation from peripheral vendors.

[Anonymous Coward]

does the average user use any of that material EVER.

no they dont, they ask the kid next door.

you know why that material is so shitty, because no one ever looks at it.

guess what, most grandmas didnt even plug in the USB cord let alone install a windows driver.

if it has a web browser, email client, and maybe a card program, grandma is happy.

drivers are good enough for 90 percent of the people out there. ever see how many monitors are stuck at 800x600 because the owners dnt give a fuck

Re:documentation from peripheral vendors.

[ssj_195]

I know nothing of the printer and scanner aspect, but nowadays most camera manufacturers seem to be standardising on the USB Mass Storage drivers, making installation of drivers moot.

Hopefully, this "laziness" on the part of the manufacturers will spread into other areas of hardware; I guess it's much easier to license someone else's technology than write your own. Already, a large wadge of TV Cards all work with Linux, out of the box, as they share the same bt8x8 chipset whose drivers are part of most modern kernels. Obviously, extremely specialist items like graphics cards will never succumb, but hey - just stick with nVidia ;)

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[Tim C]

That's "Free as in speech" not "free as in beer", or do you think that RedHat give away RHEL AS and support contracts for nothing?

Well

[Anonymous Coward]

In business terms it is. If you're not making money off of it then it's just a free commodity like air. Eventually it gets taken for granted and ignored.

Well if you are an analyst

[grahamsz]

Then it's all about the monnneh

I find it slightly ironic...

[Illissius]

...that this comes before the first '2005 is the year of Linux on the desktop!!111' prediction. They've been predicting it every single year, and the year when it is declared to be true (whether or not it is), they are beaten to the punch ;).

What will windows do in responce

[Funk203]

I don't think Microsoft is going to have a press conference over this little article but I do this that Bill Gates has to step up to the plate and try save his Operating System. Windows is popular because many people use it and they are used to it. They provided everything and tried to make less compatible with other operating systems. Now with open source, people are starting to switch and if Microsoft doesn't improve there software Open Office might take the place of Microsoft Office like Firefox did to IE. Soon Microsoft will either totally renew themselves by 2008 and win back people or be in serious trouble by 2008

But, if Bill Gates wanted to do something could he really do right now to help Microsoft combat this problem?

Re:What will windows do in responce

[mrchaotica]

My responses:

• Hopefully nothing; Microsoft needs to die. Let's not give them any ideas, please.
• That's what Longhorn is for (if it's out by then).
• They don't have to improve their software, only continue to "embrace and extend" (The technologies in question this time are XAML and .Net). Enough people will buy it anyway for it to be a "standard."

Re:What will windows do in responce

[Stevyn]

"Bill Gates has to step up to the plate and try save his Operating System"

I don't know about that. Last time I walked into a computer store or someone's living room, they were running Windows. I think this statement may be valid in 2008 though, as the guys predicted.

And how does he define "mainstream"?

[WidescreenFreak]

This really bothers me. To me, "mainstream" means something that the majority of people not only can enjoy but also want to enjoy of their own volition - acceptance by and demand from the general populous. The dictionary defines "mainstream" as Representing the prevalent attitudes, values, and practices of a society or group.In that regard, how is "mainstream" possibly close to describing Linux?

He seems to be talking exclusively about "mainstream" in the IT world. I don't see how even in 2008 Linux will be "mainstream" in the home desktop world. Shouldn't the term "mainstream" be applied across the board before it's used in such a broad fashion?

The prevalent attitudes towards computers, especially on the desktop, is that anything other than Windows != effective or easy to use. Put a number of Linux computers on sale at Best Buy (or your country's equivalent) with all things being equal with respect to hardware and price and everything necessary to run Windows on the Linux system, and see how they fare compared to Windows system. The general populous will purchase Windows in droves while those of us in the know (and we ARE a minority, folks) might purchase the Linux system.

If some PC manufacturer will actually put out a system for sale on retail stores that sells comparable numbers to Windows PCs, then I'll be more accepting of the "mainstream" moniker. (Not that anybody's individual acceptance really means anything...)

I also question why he perceives the migration to Linux in the IT world to be "mainstream". Look at the two primary alternatives:

* Windows - bloated, slow, expensive TCO, closed, not well scaleable

* Sun - aewsome operating system, unbelievable scaling capabilities, unbearably arrogant and short-sighted CEO, f**king EXPENSIVE hardware

Now comes Linux - can use existing hardware, scales fairly well, free, tons of software for free, tech support is available at a reasonable price... Hmmmm!

I'd like to see a study done on how "mainstream" Linux really is and why. Was it accepted in IT because of its strengths or was it accepted in IT because of the excessive weaknesses of its competitors? They're not the same, but I think that the reasons are important. YMMV.

Re:And how does he define "mainstream"?

[bbtom]

"can use existing hardware"

Tell that to my Radeon. I fucking adore Linux, but having spent the past few weeks busting my balls trying to get a wifi card and a graphics card to work, the many, many benefits of Linux are spoilt by the fact that much of the hardware market (in these two areas, anyway) is comprised of incompatible products that you don't know are incompatible until you are fooling around at two AM with an unusable driver.

After using Mandrake since about Christmas-time, I'm going to have to grab another IDE drive and put Windows on it so that I can actually use 3D games.

Excessive rant mode off. I still like Linux, but considering that huge swathes of stuff doesn't work, it really is not desktop ready. It's ready for my desktop (having been a crypto-geek for most of my life thus far), but most people's desktops it is not ready for.

Re:And how does he define "mainstream"?

[starfishsystems]

In that regard, how is "mainstream" possibly close to describing Linux? He seems to be talking exclusively about "mainstream" in the IT world.

It's a good question, and you've supplied the answer. You're right to say that the answer depends on context, and the context here seems to involve the traditional computing industry rather than personal computing.

Looking at the article, I see zero references to "home", "personal", "consumer", or even "small business". Curiously, there is no mention of embedded systems. On the other hand, the word "server" appears four times, and "client" three times.

Given that context, and understanding that eWeek is a trade magazine for the computing industry, the article seems to make some reasonable observations about mainstream computing. But if you were expecting an article on consumer systems, I can see why you might be bothered.

Re:And how does he define "mainstream"?

[WidescreenFreak]

Given that context, and understanding that eWeek is a trade magazine for the computing industry, the article seems to make some reasonable observations about mainstream computing. But if you were expecting an article on consumer systems, I can see why you might be bothered.

You're close, but I think that you read too much into what I said. To me, something is "mainstream" when it gains general acceptance - inclusive of all. To that extent, Linux is not anywhere close to being mainstream if you take both corporate and personal systems into account.

However, you should have noticed that the latter have of my diatribe was directed solely at the IT community. And even there I don't see how Linux can be called "mainstream." It might have a respectable chunk of the server market, but I don't see how it's anywhere close to being a majority or even a very large minority - at least not yet. Additionally, I doubt very, very much that the majority of end users are using anything except Windows.

Once again, how does that make Linux "mainstream"? Is he calling it mainstream only in the server market? No, because he does mention desktops. Okay, so it's mainstream on the end user systems? Yeah, right. It's not even close.

So, again I ask where Linux is mainstream in IT? He offers no proof nor does he give any believable conjectures to support his claim. It is growing in popularity? Absolutely. Is it reasonable to assume that significantly more money will be spent on Linux deployment? I believe so. Does that automatically make it mainstream? I can't see how it can possibly be considered as such.

Re:And how does he define "mainstream"?

[Mornelithe]

While wifi support may be a problem, the major offender in the graphics card market is ATI. nVidia puts out excellent drivers for its cards, and Intel and Matrox have released the specifications for most of their cards (as I recall), so the open source drivers should be fine.

Today, if you want to use Linux and have high performance 3d, you can't use ATI, but the whole of the graphics card market is not the same way.

Also, "desktop ready" is a difficult term to define. For many people, Linux is desktop ready, because many people don't care about 3d performance. And if they bought a computer with Linux like they do with Windows, the retailers would have no trouble creating machines that work with Linux. The population that builds a computer from scratch out of components, and would have to do research about which parts work with Linux is quite small compared to the overall computer-using population.

Re:And how does he define "mainstream"?

[Dan Ost]

There are actaully 3 different desktop markets to consider: the home user,
the gamer, and the corporate user.

Linux is already ready for the typical home user assuming the home user has
supported hardware and can get past the install. As Linux gets increased
support from device manufacturers, we will get ever closer to being able to
buy something at BestBuy and just haveing it work when it's plugged in.
(I had the good fortune this Christmas of receiving some USB toys that did
happen to work with no fussing).

Linux still has some work to be ready for the desktop gamer. High performance
hardware support is a problem and will probably continue to be a problem in the near
future, but the real problem is that most publishers don't bother to port
software to Linux. As consoles eat into the PC gaming market, there will
be pressure to write games that reach the widest possible market, so it will happen.
That, or emulation will get so good that ports won't be necessary.

The business desktop is hard to predict. Businesses stand to gain by switching
to Linux where it reduces their costs, but at the same time, businesses
(especially large ones) suffer from inertia far more than the gamers or home
users. We'll probably see it quickly take over POS and call center (and
similar) desktops, but it may take a decade to find its way onto the executive
desktops (and the people who directly communicate with executives).

It'll be interesting.

Or

[paranode]

Go one step further and become a Libertarian or Green. The more niche categories you put yourself into the less your feelings can be hurt by generalizations!

Viruses? Hah, that's why I run Linux!!
Republicans are stupid? So are Democrats? Hah! I'm a Libertarian!
Popular music is lame? Hah! That's why I only listen to my next door neighbor's garage band who NOBODY knows!

Re:Or

[a whoabot]

As a man who listens to Jandek and is apolitical, I can attest to this. I've always felt very loved.

Wait, I shouldn't have told you about Jandek...

Notice how the big news on the site is the fact that he actually played a live show!

Re:Or

[Anonymous Coward]

i think i'm gonna log in and mod this up.

very nice post.

very nice indeed.

Linux....

[DanielJS]

The day I can configure a printer in Linux and can access this printer with all the applications, is the day I will call Linux ready for the desktop. Right now, I have three different printer managers, with the same printer, so that my 8-9 apps can print. Granted, this is getting a lot better, but still, you need to make it easier. I think that Xandros is a perfect example of what Linux can do on the desktop. The problem with Xandros is that they make it very hard to install non-Xandros approved apps. I know you can install most Debian apps, but that usually involves some hacks, etc.

Desktop is a straw man..

[torpor]

.. watch your Embedded there, though. Linux rules in this domain right now, and there is a big storm coming in this front..

The way Linux will win the Desktop is through Embedded, but thats the way it'll rule everything in the end, anyway ..

Re:Desktop is a straw man..

[Dan Ost]

For those of us who can't make the connection for ourselves, can you please
explain how Linux dominance in the embedded world will lead to Linux
dominance in the desktop world?

I just don't see how the two worlds are related.

Re:Desktop is a straw man..

[Anonymous Coward]

watch your Embedded there, though. Linux rules in this domain right now, and there is a big storm coming in this front..

That's a load of crap. Embedded Linux has less than 10 percent of the embedded marketplace. It doesn't come close to ruling.

Re:Desktop is a straw man..

[torpor]

Uh huh. I guess you're talking 'global market', not just Fry's, right?

Globally, Linux is everywhere. Camera's, phones, PDA's .. even DVD systems ..

We need more fluff like this

[erroneus]

It's a fluff piece but it has been sorely needed for a while.

It has long been said that before Linux will be the order of the day, CEOs and their underlings need to read about Linux more and more before they'll start to ask "what is this thing and why aren't we running it?" It had brief exposure on CNN and some other sources, but it still needs more lip service.

It has long been felt "no one has ever been fired for going with Microsoft..." and that might change too when reliability is compared. I was tickled when I first noticed the RedHat8 server we use at my site has an uptime of greater than a year. No kernel updates or anything else has required a reboot and we've got a damned nice UPS in place. It serves its functions and does it nicely. I just can't get that from a Microsoft server...especially when every security update requires a reboot... especially when end of life means no more security updates and forces an upgrade. Most people have been droned into thinking that's just 'normal' but I just can't see it that way.

The more Fluff we get, the more the uneducated starts asking about it and making it happen.

I like where I work though... we're already on a roadmap that dumps Microsoft entirely... my condolences to those who are still stuck in MS-land.

Re:We need more fluff like this

[Feztaa]

No kernel updates or anything else has required a reboot

Hate to break this to you, but if you've updated your kernel and haven't rebooted, you're still running the old kernel. Use 'uname -a' to check for yourself. Might want to reboot that server, there have been some security updates for the kernel that you've installed but aren't actually running.

Re:We need more fluff like this

[erroneus]

uhm... I know it's an old kernel but it's stable and INTERNAL. If it were external, I'd be right there with you on that. But as far as it serving its function without fail? It's flawless.

Re:We need more fluff like this

[m50d]

If you haven't rebooted it in a year, it's probably a good idea to test the init scripts before doing so. You never know what you might have broke in the meantime.

Causality is broken, but statements are sound

[iabervon]

Having a $35B market doesn't mean that something is mainstream then, beforehand, or whatever. On the other hand, research which would lead an IDC analyst to think that Linux will be a $35B market in 3 years also implies that it is mainstream now. IDC is looking at stuff like long-term corporate purchasing plans. This tells them that a lot of money is likely to be spent on Linux in 2008, and that a lot of long-term plans today include Linux as a future direction.

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[Atzanteol]

They may not give away support contract, but you can download all the SRPMS for RHAS.

ftp.redhat.com

Linux apps on windows desktops?

[Spy der Mann]

From the article:
What I do see happening is that open-source desktop applications are going to be appearing on practically every Windows desktop in the next three years.

What _I_ want to see happening is cross-platform RAD tools appearing on practically every developer's Windows and Linux desktops in the next year. _THEN_ we'll see open-source desktop apps appearing on practically every Windows and Linux desktop in the next three to five years.

O RAD suit developer, where art thou?

Re:Linux apps on windows desktops?

[brunson]

Check out wxDesigner.

TIME TO REJOICE!

[Anonymous Coward]

It's time to rejoice again! This is a milestone for all open source projects! You can change the world! Thank you for your hard work! Each and every one of you who have something to do with open source project.

Linux User-Friendly

[Anonymous Coward]

When I turn on my linux PC, it says "Hello User". Now who says linux isnt user friendly?

what are the numbers for Windows?

[westlake]

IDC's research predicts that Linux's overall revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008.

The meaning isn't clear. Is server hardware being intertwined with sales of software and services? Is this an estimate of annual revenues in 2008 or simply an estimate of the total for 1998-2008? What are the numbers for Windows?

Honest Al?

[Anonymous Coward]

While I haven't RTFA, I have a comment on ol' Al. If he is the same Al Gillen that was editor of ENT magazine a few years back, then he's the man who published an "edited" letter of mine in his magazine. The problem was that he "edited" it to say the exact opposite of my original.

Such As?

[Anonymous Coward]

Pardon me, could you describe a "printing scenario" that was a "breakout" from a configuration that Windows could not handle? As a domain admin for 8 years I have never seen such a thing. You would also presumably be able to describe how Linsux easily handled this troublesome "printing scenario"?

Retail Linux

[fatalexe]

I'm absolutely shure that if you buy a computer from any retail store that offers pc-repair/install such as Best Buy, CompUSA they will install one of the boxes of Suse sitting on the shelf. I still order my OpenBSD cds from Canada, and buy hardware from newegg though.

Debian For Grandmas!

[MsGeek]

OK, let's compare Lycoris to Debian Sarge/Sid. (I now have this on my "daily drive" computer.)

1.)Debian: immaculate code base, no ugly weirdnesses.
Lycoris: a direct descendant of Caldera/SCO Linux. 'Nuff said.

2.)Debian: apt-get utilities of all stripes, from console to GTK+-based GUI. The latter is Synaptic, which is an awful lot like the Mandrake friendly GUI front end, except unlike urpmi apt-get works and never gets lost in RPM Hell.
Lycoris: IRIS, a proprietary system that is Caldera-flavor RPM based. Prone to RPM Hell.
I'd trust a grandma to keep her Debian system up to date with Synaptic (two clicks for "smart update!") more than I'd trust her to keep it up to date with IRIS.

Basically the only "hard part" of Debian is the install. Once you get the install tweaked just so, it's safe to turn over to grandma. Barring catastrophe, it will be solid for life. And even on those rare occasions when an update borks on you, all you need to do is keep the SSH port open so you can SSH in and fix things.

Mepis and Ubuntu and Xandros and even Linspire (yeah I know, ugh!) are click-and-drool easy to install as well, and give you a reasonably easy path to Debian GNU/Linux (their insistance, not mine) bliss. If you want to get rid of Linspire's cretinosity #apt-get dist-upgrade will do it for you happily. Ubuntu is alright if you like GNOME, because that's the only desktop environment you get with it.

I used to be a supporter of Lycoris as a distro for newbies. No more. The SCO mess has something to do with it but not everything. The Debian way of package management has got to be the easiest, most bulletproof (it's not entirely bulletproof but close) way of managing a machine.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

GNU/Huh?

[Anonymous Coward]

7.5%? Wtf are you smoking? Try 0.75%, if that.

Honestly, now that Firefox is out, there really isn't much reason to use GNU-plus-Linux....

Re:GNU/Huh?

[Moulinneuf]

I dont smoke anything , I dont drink exept 3 - 4 time per year ( personnal choice ).

And thats the numbers Microsoft puts out internally and that most people in the know agree as the minimum. Its globally , wich means that if its 0.75% in the US ( wich is irrelevant globally in everything )is the numbers that you agree with and the US is the lowest Gnu/Linux country per citizen penetration ( Argentina ,Australia , Brazil , Canada , Mexico , China , India , France , Germany , Italy , Japan , Netherlands , Russia , Spain , Thailand , United Kingdom , Cuba , Noth Korea , Israël , Vietnam , etc , beats them easily).

People dont switch for Firefox or because of it , They switch because they dont whant to pay for Microsoft , they cant afford Microsoft ( most people switching ) , they are running from Virus , trojan and hacker that come included with Microsoft product.

Re:GNU/Huh?

[Anonymous Coward]

They switch to Firefox to download porn - it's as simple as that.

Re:GNU/Huh?

[Moulinneuf]

You obviously know your porn ... IE feeds you Porn even when you dont whant it , and tell everyone about it : your wife , girlfriend , mOM ... No really you dont get firefox on GNU/Linux for porn ...

The "Grandma" Test..

[naelurec]

I find it intesting how everyone is so quick to dismiss Linux in the grandma test.

Here is my reality:

Grandma is 2500 miles away. What OS do I want to give her? Wells its definitely not Windows. She wants to get on the Internet and lets face it, my grandma is not very tech savvy and would probably load up that machine with so much spyware and viruses it would crumble.

My thoughts? Knoppix. Build a custom knoppix that includes browser, email, a few games, etc and presto she is set. Every boot is clean. It meets her computing needs without the worry of viruses/spyware/etc.. every few months, I could create a new Knoppix CD and send it to her.. boot off the new CD, and she has the latest software.

I could be a little bit creative, have her settings/documents stored on the hard drive and have Knoppix on boot run a script that would determine the last backup and prompt her to pop in a CD-RW to keep a backup of her data.

Since she is booting off the CD, I can boot my copy of the CD to know exactly what she is looking at on-screen if she has questions.

I dunno.. it seems like the right choice to me. Perhaps it could even go a step further where the hard drive is partitioned and when the Knoppix CD is booted up, it would prompt if she wants to update her computer (auto-install to hard drive) or boot from the CD. Keep the docs/settings on their own partition so it doesn't get removed.

I know grandma can pop in a CD and turn on the computer. Seems like this would pass the test.

Re:The "Grandma" Test..

[fzammett]

That answer is fine for YOUR grandmother, who has someone with the necassery expertise to build such a disc for her.

Now how does that help all the others grandmas out there that don't have such a grandchild?

Re:The "Grandma" Test..

[DanielJS]

Easy!! Xandros... Nothing is easier than that!! and it even runs windows crap...

Re:The "Grandma" Test..

[discordja]

Why do we even give a damn about Grandma? We don't care what she uses. Give her SCO for all I care, she's gonna check email just as easily.

Grandma isn't going to push it into the mainstream. Linux needs to find a way to reach out and capture the winhead power users. There should be a keybind for everything in the UI. Utilities like Expose for Apple needs to find it's way into Linux as more than just rough ports found on kdeapps. And there needs to be some people with real artistic skill making the great linux apps look as great on the screen as anything windows.

But more than anything, it needs to prove there is an alternative and the alternative is good. Apple, in my mind, is "unix on desktop" years before "linux on desktop." Maybe the rumors of a headless mac will come to fruition and more people will willingly make the leap and see what they are missing.

Re:The "Grandma" Test..

[naelurec]

Proof of concept for one thing. If such a system works well for that target market, I could easily see custom knoppix disks made just for that type of user. That target market is interested in the KISS principle and keeping cost low.

Just think of the mountains of crap-o-la grandma has to do right now for Windows .. make sure anti-virus is updated, run spyware checks, run windows update, run a firewall, be leary of opening emails/websites/etc, etc..etc..etc.. lots of non-sense. The alternative being popping in a CD that is targeted specificly for that type of individual, it has the programs needed in a simple interface, the user account runs un-privileged, the default security is strong.

Re:The "Grandma" Test..

[naelurec]

Honestly, I don't really give a damn about Grandma (well from a tech marketing POV). I just find it funny that others post that Linux isn't ready for this or that or the other thing claiming its difficult to install, difficult to configure, etc.. I was just wanting to counter that with distros like Knoppix, it is very easy for Grandma to use and in reality, doesn't take much more effort than it would for a grandson or whoever to initially configure a Windows box and hope to lock it down adaquately enough to not be a spyware/spam spewing haven.

I am with you re: Apple is "unix on the desktop"--- I *really* hope to see the headless $500 mac come to fruition .. it is GREAT for this demographic (among others).

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[micromoog]

Free? No... the term 'free software' is misleading

It's only misleading if you choose not to understand it. The term is actually quite clear and well-defined.

By yourself doesn't count...

[crovira]

Wait until you get a girl/boy'friend'. Then write to us about the studs in your wall...

No you have a couple of years...

[big-giant-head]

It won't be mainstream till 2008, so that means it will really start to be popular in late 2007. So you have 2.5 years to jump on the BSD/AthenaOS/ReactOS/OS-9/........ bandwagons. You even have time to start your own. Good Luck!

BTW I wonder what the status of BeOS. That might be fun.

This article is a dupe

[learn fast]

Yup, We've seen this before. It's not the same article exactly, but both had obviously been haplessly scraped out of the same press release. Same numbers, same quotes. Nothing to see here...

Time for Plan 'B'

[0racle]

Or rather, Plan-9

hmmm, is this like the democratic exit polls

[Anonymous Coward]

yup, looks like the democrats will win,... the exit poll statistics prove it!

RE: Linux, the Command Line, and Ease-of-use

[tilleyrw]

It's been done.

MacOS X

My family linux problem

[dougnaka]

I have told my family for years they should switch to Linux cuz they wouldn't have *insert problem they're calling me for support about* anymore. In the last 6 months they've started saying, yeah great! Switch me to Linux.. and suddenly I'm thinking.. hmmm do I really want to be on the line for more support when my X application doesn't run, or the software I bought from Coscto won't install!?

So, the tables have turned for me, and now I'm *not* telling them to switch to linux, becuase THEY WOULD!

Re:My family linux problem

[dal11]

I am Learning Linux( i'm a newb), I realy Like Fedora Core a friend got me hooked on it. I don't know about the mainstream on desktop though. My PC is an expensive game system nothing more. And right now i'm pulling my hair out trying to get wine to work (don't feel like shucking out money for an app just to get games to work). The only native Linux games I have are Unreal 2k3 and 2k4. Mainstream to this user and it will be the day I DO get MS off my back is when the entire purpose of my PC(games) is realised until then Linux is nothing more than something new to learn and tinker with.

Re:My family linux problem

[m50d]

But will that mean more support than you're currently doing with their windows problems? My guess would be no. Get them a distro with a big repository, show them how to search it and how to install programs they like, and ask if they can manage without anything that isn't there. If they really need something that isn't there, tell them you'll install it personally, if possible do it remotely (set up ssh for them). Then you spend close to 0 time supporting them.

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[jedidiah]

This is why I always use the term libre software. It makes things more clear. You're going to have to explain the term anways. You might as well start out with something more unambiguous.

So you'll be married?

[cliveholloway]

When I was younger, I couldn't wait to get married, because when you're married, you can have sex every night.

cLive ;-)

(+1 insightful if you're single, +1 funny if you're married - take your pick :)

Regarding Microsoft Outlook...

[geoffrobinson]

If you can move over the Calendar appointments I think businesses would be willing to change that app.

Things that will accelerate the transition

[HangingChad]

MSFT does plenty to shoot themselves in the foot. Not only are they getting eaten up on security issues, but there are a number of issues that could be the last straw for a lot of people. If they ever wake up and start reading what's actually in the EULA they're going to start thinking about alternatives more seriously.

The next "last straw" for some people may be this prediction from Microsoft-Watch:

Microsoft's biggest announcement of the year won't be Yukon (SQL Server 2005) or Whidbey (Visual Studio 2005). Instead, it will be an as-yet-unannounced anti-virus/anti-spyware subscription service for which Microsoft will charge.
Source: http://tinyurl.com/3sht4

More likely MSFT will quietly offer this to their bigger customers to keep them from switching to OSS while the great sea of consumer users will have to pay. Or maybe they'll be smart and give it away, but that's a little like hoping dubya will really be a uniter and not a divider.

I think IDC's estimates are conservative. Now that the ball is rolling down hill it will only continue to accelerate. Aided by MSFT's almost uncanny ability to treat their customers like criminals.

The Joke's on you pal

[JudgeFurious]

He wasn't trying to write "know". He was referring to a new program that's going to be shipped with KDE called KLnow. Looks like crap on Gnome though so another program called GLnow is in the works.

And no, I don't klnow what it does. I just know that it kicks ass because it's free!

No killer apps

[Jarlsberg]

One of many problems facing Linux is that it really doesn't have any killer apps. All the good apps (or the high profiled one anyway, like Firefox, Gimp, Open Office et al) are released on the Windows platform as well, and that's the one getting promoted. Nobody will switch to using a Linux distro because of Firefox, since it's already available on the Windows platform.

OTOH, Windows have several killer apps, like Photoshop & other Adobe apps, Macromedias apps, Microsoft apps (and my own personal favourite, Directory Opus) etc. Sure, you can run some of them through Wine, but that's not something a lot of people will want to do.

Re:No killer apps

[Le Marteau]

Yeah, there are certainly lots of killer apps for Windows. What really had me envious was that killer dialer app a friend's daughter downloaded. When she got that phone bill of $400.00 for calls to Guyana, I was lamenting my decision to run a platform without such apps.

Re:No killer apps

[PigleT]

Sure, linux doesn't have any webservers, or mail and news clients with auto-adaptive-scoring, or world-leading spam-filtering utilities, or web-browsers worth using, or abilties to edit audio and movies and burn them to DVDs, oh no. Nor does it have word-processors or spreadsheets.

Wake the heck up. Since when was it *linux*'s problem what people choose do with it?

Re:No killer apps

[GR1NCH]

Personally I think it's a good thing that tons of the Killer Linux apps are going over to windows. In five years from now maybe people will realize that all their apps (firefox, gimp, gaim, open office, etc) are available on linux too, and without half the crap to deal with maybe they'll make the switch. I think for most people the number one reason they wont use linux is because of the 'killer windows apps (and games)' they can't use in linux. So what do the linux users do, bitch and complain that linux support should be provided. The OSS community has a better plan, come up with even better apps for linux, and release them for windows too, so that people can get comfortable with them before they make the switch. Having windows ports of Linux apps is not a bad thing at all, you are just looking at it the wrong way.

Re:No killer apps

[Anonymous Coward]

Apparently you haven't heard of the GNOME desktop? A few bugs aside, it is much simpler and user-friendly in my opinion than Windows.

Re:No killer apps

[m50d]

We should perhaps start promoting xine more, as it's really very good. One program that plays any kind of stream you find on the internet. But try simply telling people that the switch from linux to windows is like the switch from IE to firefox. They listen.

And as far as I'm concerned, KDE is a killer app. Yes it runs on cygwin, but not well last I heard. It looks really nice and the integration is awesome. An integrated office suite, set of media players, email etc. clients, IM programs etc. that all look the same and work together is really an amazing achievement. I couldn't manage without it, I really couldn't.

Re:Dave Chappelle worked it into his show

[doormat]

Linux...

Yeah! What??? OKAY....

Re: Linux, the Command Line, and Ease-of-use

[Dan Ost]

If I could run it on hardware I own, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
However...

oh oh

[geekoid]

now its mainstream..time for slashdot to jump onto another fringe OS.

so you are not

[geekoid]

interested in helping your family so much as being a selfish S.O.B. and a know it all prick

well done.

will it be called

[geekoid]

Benix
or
Lafflec?

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[Yartrebo]

Net utility value (utility value - cost) would probably be the best metric. It is the metric that is used [ideally] in communism to decide what and how much gets produced. It does not require prices or currency to work. In fact, to work optimally, the benefits and costs should be kept in their raw form, and the exchange rates between various outputs, raw materials, and labor calculated dynamically.

It is hard to calculate, but maximising net utility value gives both the ideal production scenario for communism (to all according to need) and for capitalism (marginal price = marginal cost).

For two examples, let us take creating a new movie and downloading a movie from P2P, burning it, and watching it 3 times.

Creating a new movie (the actual genre and movie to be made is left up to the sum of personal tastes and demands):
inputs:
- 800,000 human-hours time
- data from the public domain (this is a wash with the output, but listing this acknowledges that no movie is made in a vacuum).
- various other consumables, capital, and other raw materials.

outputs:
- 1 new movie -> increases diversity of movies available, incresing utility of all existing movie entertainment services and equipment. The amount can be estimated empiracally.
- new data for public domain (restricting this output by having copyright would be economic waste, so I'm ignoring that reality).

Downloading, burning, and watching a movie 3 times:
inputs:
- 1 copy of the movie (infinite supply available, but not infinite selection - the quality of this input is very important)
- 7 hours time (1 hour to download and burn, 6 hours to watch it three times).
- 150g oil (50g for plastic, 100g for manufacturing, packaging, and shipping - assuming you get a spindle of discs and don't waste resources on individually packaged discs)
- 2kWh electricity (computers, internet, manufacturing equipment)
- 1,400 MB one-way bandwidth (P2P requires 1 uploaded bit for 1 downloaded bit, so 700 MB gets doubled).
- Capital equipment (computer, TV, etc).

Outputs:
- 1 hard copy (useful for the operation of P2P networks, and can always be used should centralized libraries ever lose or destroy their copies).
- 6 hours of entertainment, the quality of which is dependant on the quality of the inputs (A good movie that matches the viewer's tastes shown on a good display device with top notch speakers will be better than Gigli seen on a 3" black and white TV using the internal PC speaker for sound output).

Each input is either labor (provided by workers), virgin raw materials (provided by nature), or the output of another process (recycled materials along with almost all goods and services).

We only care about the end products (those that directly serve human needs, wants, and wishes) and we can maximize the end products without assigning values to the intermediaries. We get a huge multivariate equation which describes our production possibilities curve and another set of single and multivariate equations that link the production of particular end products and services to 'utility'. Maximize for utility and you have now found the ideal production mix for the economy. In an ideal communist economy, this data would be used by the central planning board to set production targets, which will be exactly met since they are at the edge of the production possibilities curve.

Even under other systems (like capitalism) where this information could not be acted on because there is no central planning board, it can be used to give a far more detailed and accurate accounting of economic activity than a crude metric like GDP.

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[GMC-jimmy]

Having read this post I feel like I just sat through another office meeting. :/

By any chance, are you in Marketing or Sales ?
My sister is in Marketing and she sounds like this every once in a while.

Re:Dave Chappelle....Crank Yankers

[codeconfused]

Crank Yankers had a "linux inside" poster in the backround. It was the one with special Ed yelling
I GOT MAIL....yayyyy

Don't want to miss The Next Big OS?

[mikelang]

Check these three names: Symbian, Palm, PocketPC.
These devices will get 3GB harddisks and 500MHz processors soon...

An actual Grandma test

[timothy]

The house where I rent a room (in El Paso) is owned by the grandparents of my housemate. His grandmother's computer was pretty much infected with Windows spyware, to the point that it was unusable. Bootup took forever, lots of error messages, millions of spyware / adware pustules errupting everywhere ...

a) I used Mepis to rescue her documents

b) I showed her the machine working with Linux (Mepis and Ubuntu, both of which work fine with her hardware), and *didn't* take forever like Windows does for her. [Old Windows - ME, oldish hardware by current standards] She likes it, and except that I'm out of town until next month, I would install it (her request) on her machine. That's still the plan.

Partly, Linux has gotten better, Partly Windows is just a big pain in the butt. (Some people say otherwise, and more power to 'em. YMMV, etc.)

timothy

IDC's document costs $2,000 to read!!!

[madshot]

Was it just me or did everyone else notice that IDC wants to charge $2,000 to read their 20 page document on how linux is mainstream?? http://www.idc.com/research/viewtoc.jsp?containerI d=32424

Doubtful

[babylonian007]

How can you say something is mainstream based solely on your prediction that it will be so three years from now? Doesn't make much sense to me.

It is very easy to know the next trend

[argoff]

Figuring out the next trend is always very easy.
I figured it out with Linux in 95, and then I told managment that SCO was going to die and Linux was going to take over the marketplace - I was effectively humiliated and laughed out of the company.

The long term market always gravitates to the least proprietary technogy, while the short term market always creates intense pressure to use the most proprietary technology. This is why so many people always get suckered in and killed and left to sorrow and wallow in dead end careers.

I REPEAT! Not the prettiest technology (eg. Apple vs MS and Intel), not the fastest technology (eg. Cray, SGI), not the most financed technology (eg. Microsoft and OS2 before it), not the most elloquent design (eg. Motorolla chips vs Intel, also I renember Amigas rulled in that area), not the most efficient (renember token-ring), not the first to market (eg. UNIX). Not ones that seem free or "open" (eg. Java which could have grown faster than Linux if it was under the GPL but didn't, the same with BSD whose license gives forks the power to restrict other peoples freedom to downstream copy making it more proprietary than it could have been). Not even the ones that ride on non-porprietary trends (eg. Sun rode the internet wave, and Oracle is riding on Linux today). No, overall the market always favors the LEAST proprietary technology.

Free markets are about freedoms, especially from proprietary controll, because with freedoms come the flexability to grow outside the confines of one company, or consortium - none of wich can even touch the 10's and trillions produced anually by the gloabl economy and all the branches and directions that wealth can grow.

Moral, freedom matters. Tough it out and go against the grain as much as you can with the proprietary bullshit and things in the long run will be ok. It will be tough, and numb minds may make you sorry for it in the short term, but in the long term you will be so on top.

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[bob beta]

Right. We can download a bunch of packaged source code and roll *something* up out of it. Yeah.

I remember a bunch of years back showing up at a Red Hat 'road show' event held at a rented hotel meeting room. This was back in the era of Red Hat 5.0. I asked the Red Hat marketing lady if I could make copies of my Red Hat 5.0 CD and give them to my friends. (actually, at the time, I only had 5.0 in the form of a copy from my brother in law).

Boy, she had an uncomfortable look on her face after that...

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[Atzanteol]

The person I was replying to assumed RedHat didn't make RHAS and RHES available for free. They do. Whether they make it easy or not is debatable.

Do you remember the days before RedHat 5.0 et al? Installing Linux was far from trivial, and you didn't hear anyone complaining that it wasn't made freely available. Back then men were men, and geeks lived in their parents basements!

IDC predictions

[Per Abrahamsen]

Have there ever been a IDC prediction that turned out to be correct? In the 15 years I have been involved in the the industry, I don't remember a single one to be correct, or even close. I remember a lot of the other kind of predictions, such as the expected dominating role of OS/2 and Unix (at one point, IDC bascially predicted these two would divide the market between them), and how PC's, DOS and MS Windows would stay niche products. Of course, there has also been IDC predictions about the later would dominate the market, but these were all after Wintel boxes already dominated the market.

Statistically, IDC ought to be right sometimes. But as it is now, they may actually have a value because the negative corrolation between their predictions and reality.

Re:no,

[Lord Bitman]

it's BOTH free speech and free as in free beer. Fire was mainstream before people were selling central heating. It's usage, not how much is sold, that makes something mainstream. People use free linux because it is cheap to do so. Huge corporations pay for linux because it is reliable to do so. (you can turn on free linux and leave it on forever, no problems, but if you want to be secure, etc, it helps to have support)

Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue

[bob beta]

I still live in 'the days before RedHat 5.0. RH 4.3 was the last Red Hat distro I could/would tolerate. I went back to Slackware after trying 5.0.