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Bob Cringely's Predictions For 2005
An anonymous reader writes "Bob Cringley publishes his predictions for developments in the world of IT every year. His latest column contains his predictions for 2005 and a brief look back at his predictions for 2004."
- Microsoft sues
- SPAM increases
- RIAA sues users
Even my Aunt Nellie predicted these to happen!
I'd be interested in what major software is going to take off - spam filters, chat, music?
You can't expect to wield supreme executive power, just because some watery tart threw a sword at you
Someone care to explain why we should be so interested in this?
"I wrote that spam would get worse"
"Microsoft would propose proprietary technologies"
"Apple will take a big risk in 2005...though I am at a loss right now for what that might be."
Well at least he goes out on a limb and his predictions aren't vague or anything. If John Edward stops hosting Crossing Over, I know where they can get a new host.
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur
All they did was buy the company, reskin the program, and turn around and offer it for free. They have not had a chance to screw it up...yet.
FTA:"I predicted that all kinds of software companies would abandon support for older products, thus forcing us to upgrade to new operating systems and new hardware. Bingo." This is a prediction? why?
But can microsoft keep up with the rate of mutation in the spyware/worm/virus category?
Microsoft certainly has a head start in heuristically detecting things (after all, they're the only people who know what all the random gibberish in the registry means, or whether mswin03.dll really belongs in 2003 server's windows directory), but I suspect that their heuristics are only going to get them so far, and that the people who wrote spyware that worked so hard to keep the other players from finding it are going to figure out how MS found them and "fix" it.
If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
I predicted that all kinds of software companies would abandon support for older products, thus forcing us to upgrade to new operating systems and new hardware. Bingo.
We've all grown accustomed to Bob's vagueness in these predictions, but here he doesn't even list any examples to support the veracity of his already vague (and super-obvious) prediction. -Joe
Although I doubt we'll see it, whether we see it or not, I'm going to make the bold prediction that in 2005, Slashdot users will continue to complain that Apple hardware is too expensive.
Blogging Weight Loss, Distance Education, and more at verlin.com
Bring the PC to nearly everyone's home.
Credit: IMB PC/AT and it's clones
Give them a platform that is virtually universal in the industry.
Credit: uhm...yeah... I've got 5 diffrent platforms here on 5 diffrent processors (only 1 machine is a x86)
Make computing easy
Credit: Those boys over at Apple
Make computing cheap via making it everywhere and driving down the cost of hardware.
Credit: All the makers of PC clones
Managing to get on the internet truck late and yet still be the driving force that brought it to home users via making it so easy to get on and use.
Credit: They didn't get on late, but AOL did all this.
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
YOUR CLAIM: Bring the PC to nearly everyone's home.
Credit: IMB PC/AT and it's clones
YOUR CLAIM: Give them a platform that is virtually universal in the industry.
Credit: uhm...yeah... I've got 5 diffrent platforms here on 5 diffrent processors (only 1 machine is a x86)
YOUR CLAIM: Make computing easy
Credit: Those boys over at Apple
YOUR CLAIM: Make computing cheap via making it everywhere and driving down the cost of hardware.
Credit: All the makers of PC clones
YOUR CLAIM: Managing to get on the internet truck late and yet still be the driving force that brought it to home users via making it so easy to get on and use.
Credit: They didn't get on late, but AOL did all this.
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
In january 2006, noone will remember, much less give a rats ass about, what Cringley "predicted" a year prior.
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
And without 1 driving player there would have been many mid size players thus making the whole of computing more expensive do to greater support issues.
Without one driving player there would have been several midsize players thus making the whole of computing better, due to open standards that allowed different machines to easily communicate-- as opposed to what happened, which was Microsoft making as much proprietary shit as they could to make life as difficult as possible for non-Windows users.
We are only now managing to recover from that, because Microsoft has exasperated enough people to the point where they will endure some Microsoft-induced pain to use non-Microsoft products.
Except, of course, that they aren't - they're just obvious. Actually they're only obvious to those already informed and following developments in the industry. What makes them usefull is the fact that Cringly has exposure outside of the industry and, therefor, significantly more influence upon the mindshare of the general population. Something I can't (and assume you can't) claim.
"Sanity is not statistical", George Orwell, "1984"
Wireless isn't the only thing holding back Linux on the Laptop. It needs to have full, native ACPI support as well. Get these working as well as they work in Windows, and Linux becomes a killer mobile OS.
Actually, I can envision all sorts of tablet devices running Linux. LinuxPADD, anyone?
dinner: it's what's for beer
I use it on my site and my site happens to use a BLOG as its small news item/incremental update/forum section.
I have made about $7.35 from the affiliate program so far.
The cool thing is, it doesn't just apply to songs. One day I will luck up and someone will buy an iPod or iMac in the same order - you get 2% off that as well if they buy with 48 hours of clicking on your link.
Each editorial that I post on my website, I post a corresponding song.
For instance: My last story was on Bleu Rose Software exiting the Mac Market. I posted (with the story) - I'm Blue by Eiffel 65
Yell & scream & rant & rave... it's no use... you need a shaaaave ~ Bugs Bunny
If you're the kind of person who thinks that kernel management is fun, I respectfully submit that you aren't the right person to design a Linux on the desktop strategy.
: )
Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
I hope you don't think I was baggin' on you too much. : )
I like systems that work too. That's why I bough a Powerbook. If I ever need to do anything Unix-y, I can. In the meantime, it Just Works. It suits me quite well.
Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
Sadly, this can be extended to just about everything. Look at the way people drive, for one.
They whose government reduces their essential liberties for temporary security, receive neither liberty nor security.
I call bullshit on that one.
I'd be perfectly happy if Ati+Nvidia released a non-optimizing bare bones OpenGL DRI driver as open source, without their nifty tricks.
And I wouldn't be surprised if, two years later, the free driver were faster in at least some occasions than the proprietary. We can code tricks too, you know.
I suspect the real reason is that their company culture is skeptic of open source (as are most) and when people keep happily using their proprietary stuff they don't have to care. They probably have to do a lot of unnecessary work adjusting to all "flavors of Linux" instead of letting the distributors do their job, but hey it's their choice.
Microsoft windows is a single operating system that is sold by a company. Mandrake linux is the same thing. Ditto redhat, suse etc etc. You seem to think that because they are based on linux that they are all the same, but they are not. In many cases they are just has different as BSD vs OSX. Sure the core is the same ... not much else is. Do you really think that we should only have 1 OS available ? We have tried that route with MS, it doesnt work. You cannot trust a single corporate entity with everything. They will screw the consumer over for a few extra bucks.
The more competition there is the better off we all (consumers) are. The only reason linux has not taken off is because microsoft has exsclusivity contracts in place with all of the major vendors.
"So why are all those man hours being wasted to create competeing products?"
Don't know to much about software development do you ? There is no "one way" to do things. Different people have different ideas about how things should be managed or written. You seem to think that everybody thinks the same, or has the same goals. Or that they should. I couldnt disagree with you more about that.
"you disagree with the descion voice your opinion, but swollow your pride and dont fork the project as that will only dilute the power of linux."
Dude the power of linux and OSS is being able to fork it if you disagree with the direction it is heading in. Why the heck do you think people are leaving windows ? Or unix ? They disagreed with the way things were going, or they agreed more with the way things were going with linux.
Windows got where it was by competing with mac, whats going on in the linux community is not the same since there is far far more cooperation than people see, but the principle is the same. Competition drives innovation.
If Linux wants to surpass windows two things need to happen:
1. Stop trying to copy windows. Go your own route. If people want windows they will use windows.
2. Get a major PC manufacturer to install linux by default on their retail desktops.
The problem is two-fold, the first major problem is a lot of the newer developers are windows developers who feel like making linux more like windows. The second problem is microsofts bully tactics (which are illegal).
How to get past these issue's is an exercise I leave to the reader.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe." --Albert Einstein
A Linux revolution is impossible if we are talking about it in the confines of one year. Heck, I predict 2005 won't even be the year of "Firefox on the desktop" (i.e. its share will remain 20%). Gradual improvement of Linux would NEVER EVER cause a rapid mass migration from MS Windows. Yes, Linux marketshare will continue to increase, but there won't be a year of "Linux on the desktop".
If you want a revolution, you need revolutionary technologies. A non WIMP interface, a port of KDE/Gnome/X to true 3D, an integrated office productivity application (word processing/spreadsheet/presentation/mind map/project management), an integrated communications applications (web/mail/IM/usenet/wiki/blog). Something that would make every CIO go "Wow! I want 10000 of these!". Working on better Outlook/Winamp clones would help only marginally. Do it if you want, but I don't see a point in switching when Windows has better GUI applications and Windows itself is good enough.
Future Wiki -- If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one.