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Bob Cringely's Predictions For 2005
An anonymous reader writes "Bob Cringley publishes his predictions for developments in the world of IT every year. His latest column contains his predictions for 2005 and a brief look back at his predictions for 2004."
- Microsoft sues
- SPAM increases
- RIAA sues users
Even my Aunt Nellie predicted these to happen!
I'd be interested in what major software is going to take off - spam filters, chat, music?
You can't expect to wield supreme executive power, just because some watery tart threw a sword at you
Someone care to explain why we should be so interested in this?
"Microsoft's entry into the anti-virus and anti-spyware businesses will be a disaster for users."
What does Microsoft do that ISN'T a disaster for its users?
Sugapablo
"I wrote that spam would get worse"
"Microsoft would propose proprietary technologies"
"Apple will take a big risk in 2005...though I am at a loss right now for what that might be."
Well at least he goes out on a limb and his predictions aren't vague or anything. If John Edward stops hosting Crossing Over, I know where they can get a new host.
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur
Nothing earth shattering here. The same old Microsoft and RIAA will perish while desktop linux will make inroads. Then a few other vague things like apple will do something big and voip will become more popular.
I could have just easily said that in north east america, the year will start out cold, get warmer, get hot, get cold, and then finally get really cold. I just wish advertisers would pay me for that.
Slashdot will continue posting Cringely articles two to three times a month whether or not he has anything worthwhile, interesting or surprising to say, just because it's Cringely.
Irritable, left-wing and possibly humorous bumper stickers and t-shirts
4) The Recording Industries Association of America will continue to sue customers while their business slowly dissolves. The big threat here isn't file swapping, but affiliate programs like Apple's iTunes Affiliate Program that I am sure will be shortly copied by all the online music stores. These affiliate programs turn bloggers into shills and blogs into record stores, with the result that record company's last source of power -- marketing clout -- is taken away. This will take time, but it is the beginning of the end for old-style record companies.
I didn't realize iTunes had an affiliate program, but it seems like a logical step. Amazon's been doing this for a long time with music CDs, of course, as have other vendors. While viral marketing is definitely a good way to promote things, I don't see it reducing the record companies' marketing clout. I've posted before about how they used viral marketing to promote Christina Aguilera when she was new. This is just another marketing avenue for them. But really, you still need to reach people who don't read blogs. People still watch TV. Still listen to the radio. Still read magazines and newspapers.
EricWhy is William Shatner's face on my All-Bran?
FTA:"I predicted that all kinds of software companies would abandon support for older products, thus forcing us to upgrade to new operating systems and new hardware. Bingo." This is a prediction? why?
Expect some big hobbling of VOIP, at least for John. Q. Public.
- Linux on the Desktop
Been predicted over and over again, but "major inroads"? Linux will grow gradually, but I can't see how he missed a glaring hole: Linux wireless support. My prediction for 2005 would have been wireless drivers for Linux that work just as easily as the built in networking drivers we have now. THEN you can start talking about major inroads, especially on laptops (which I think Linux is more suitable for than the Desktop).
Just my 2 cents.
Without a proper flamewar, Anonymous was undecided on what shell to run.
They have a nice keyboard design.
I use one on my Linux box. It works great.
I don't have carpel tunnel now.
I just want to give credit where credit is due.
Someone will probably post that they didn't design it.
It is still a good keyboard.
Although I doubt we'll see it, whether we see it or not, I'm going to make the bold prediction that in 2005, Slashdot users will continue to complain that Apple hardware is too expensive.
Blogging Weight Loss, Distance Education, and more at verlin.com
Appearantly you've not tried it yourself. There are no MS apps that come with it. While I understand what you are saying about some security issues relating to root access, I have installed Linspire 4.5, on multiple machines and found it to be easy to install, easy to add/remove applications to and found it to be quite serviceable. You can easily add users so as to avoid running as root.
I've really got to give Michael Roberts a lot of credit for his attempt to get the average user away from the grips of Microsoft, spam, viruses and malware. When my son's P4 HP Pavilion ground to a halt with malware, I loaned him an old PII-266 running Linspire 4.5 while I roto-rootered his Windows machine. He and his wife were able to start using it for surfing and e-mail with about 2 minutes training. It worked just fine with winmodem for dialup access, too. Now I'm having trouble getting it back from him.
I'm currently running SuSE 9.2 myself and have experience with RedHat, Fedora, Mandrake, Knoppix and Xandros as well as Linspire. No Linspire doesn't have as much geek appeal, but it's a reasonably good product IMHO. Oh, and no, I have no affiliation with Linspire in any way other than as someone who's tried it.
"Do the Right Thing. It will gratify some people and astound the rest." - Mark Twain
"Do the Right Thing. It will gratify some people and astound the rest." - Mark Twain
Except, of course, that they aren't - they're just obvious. Actually they're only obvious to those already informed and following developments in the industry. What makes them usefull is the fact that Cringly has exposure outside of the industry and, therefor, significantly more influence upon the mindshare of the general population. Something I can't (and assume you can't) claim.
"Sanity is not statistical", George Orwell, "1984"