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My Life as a Quant

charliedickinson writes "Some of the most computationally-intensive tasks around are real-time valuations of derivative securities. Wall Street traders need these for executing the trade whenever anyone wants to hedge stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, credit, mortgages, power ... the list goes on. Emanuel Derman's My Life as a Quant is the engaging odyssey of a theoretical physicist turned serious programmer (by way of Bell Labs), turned "rocket scientist" or "quant" (Wall Street slang for the folks who've taken computer-aided design and valuation of financial products to new levels these last two decades)." Read on for Dickinson's review of the book. My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance author Emanuel Derman pages 292 publisher John Wiley & Sons, Inc. rating 9 reviewer Charlie Dickinson ISBN 0471394203 summary Autobiography of a theoretical physicist turned serious programmer, turned Wall Street quantitative finance wizard

A complete understanding of Derman's work as physicist, or as finance theoretician, is of course beyond the scope of a memoir. This reviewer studied quantum mechanics in college and took an MBA at UCLA (more about this later) -- adding to my interest in the memoir's technical discussion -- but Derman reasonably pitches his discussion toward a lay audience with many helpful visuals to describe less obvious mathematical relationships. Do not let the perceived arcana of Derman's work keep you away from this memoir.

Emanuel Derman came to New York City in 1966 from Cape Town, South Africa. He started a Ph.D in theoretical physics at Columbia, somewhat in awe to be studying among a cluster of Nobel Laureates. As a teenager, Derman had hopes of being another Einstein if he stayed with physics. But as he notes, time decay happens to ambition. Seven years after earning his Ph.D, he was happy to be an employed postdoc, sharecropping his knowledge of particle physics to willing bidders.

The job market for theoretical physicists continued south. Family responsibilities, his wife's career as a biologist, and iffy prospects for a tenured teaching position --these all added up to Derman abandoning his love of physics, and going to work for money at Bell Labs.

There, Derman fell in love with programming (lex and yacc being two favorite tools). During five years, he built compilers and designed a nonprocedural language, HEQS (Hiearchical EQuation Solver), a precursor to Visicalc. But he never quite adjusted to the politics of Bell Labs, and by 1985, Wall Street was beckoning.

Executive recruiters sought out high-value programmers like Derman. He took a position with Goldman, Sachs in the Financial Strategies Group and began modeling options. It was a good fit. He found himself using sophisticated modeling techniques comparable to "doing physics." Moreover, he soon would collaborate with another Goldman, Sachs employee, one of the most influential theoreticians around: Fischer Black, whose Black-Scholes option pricing model (1973) is a benchmark in the field.

But My Life as a Quant is more than technical discussion; it's also a human interest narrative. The chapter "Easy Travel to Other Planets," about Fischer Black, is worth the price of this book. With compassion and honesty, Derman evocatively portrays his genius mentor. Derman shrewdly assesses what the arc of his life has meant. He shares vulnerabilities, decisions made from the weakness of loneliness, for example. Or, in a self-deprecatory vein, faux pas he committed. He's around Nobel Laureates in both physics and economics, and while noting such illustrious company can at times seem self-serving, the overall effect remains an engaging, complex self-portrait.

One idea about the world of quants Derman dispels is that derivative securities are wholly computer-driven. Despite more computing power on Wall Street, Derman asserts human imagination still leads the way. It takes a Fischer Black to intuit the qualitative to set up the quantitative model. Modern computational tools, however, aid the visualization such creative work thrives on.

As an example of the foregoing, and on a personal note, this reviewer remembers derivative security analysis circa 1969. While pursuing an MBA at UCLA, I did grunt work for a private hedge fund, run out of a Westwood apartment. Technology then was a time-sharing computer terminal and a telephone. The fund strategy was to short warrants and go long on the underlying common stock, where arbitraging opportunities were identified, a strategy borrowed from earlier work by Edward Thorp and Sheen Kassouf. My job was simple: I charted historical price data on clear acetate sheets in colored inks for all outstanding warrants against the underlying stock.

I drew hundreds of graphs, assisted in part by an Israeli graduate student (who had fought in the 1967 Six-Day War). I can't recall his name, but remember that when I'd drop by with more price data, ready to take away graphs, he invariably offered toast and coffee. One morning, I brought yet another roll of graphs to the Fund manager's apartment/office. Steve met me outside, saying he'd just got off the phone with Paul Samuelson at MIT, who wanted to know what our graphs looked like. Samuelson had written an article on warrant pricing, Steve added, which was why he was interested in what we turned up. I knew Samuelson as the author of an economics textbook I'd used a few years earlier.

Another morning, when I motorcycled over to drop off charts, Steve again was outside. He said, "Shelton and Markowitz are here." Professor John Shelton had hired me, of course, but I had no idea who Markowitz was -- he evidently did unspecified work with Shelton. Inside, I was quickly introduced to Harry Markowitz, who unrolled my graphs, becoming immediately absorbed. "Let me get a gestalt on this," was all he said. I didn't know then I was in the same room with the inventor of Modern Portfolio Theory. Now I can say he would see something that maybe a Fischer Black, or, these years later, an Emanuel Derman, might see. When he looked up, he said I did good graphs. I never saw him again.

Years later, I felt honored the low-tech grunt work my Israeli colleague and I labored over had interested those two men, Samuelson and Markowitz. They both received the Nobel Laureate in Economics (1970 and 1990, respectively). My point being -- and I'm sure Derman agrees -- it's not great computers that make breakthroughs in the financial theory. It's great imagination plus the tools at hand! (Obviously, though, computers have changed much of the grunt work.)

For me, My Life as a Quant summoned personal memories, but the odyssey of Emanuel Derman from South Africa to Wall Street is a rewarding memoir for anyone with even a casual interest about how the world of finance is being re-imagined. Emanuel Derman didn't really go to Wall Street to get rich. This memoir is a testament to his true passion in life, whether in theoretical physics, in software programming, or in the modeling of derivative securities. He always wanted interesting problems to work on.

You can purchase My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance from bn.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.

139 comments

  1. Weird... by grub · · Score: 3, Funny

    Amazon doesn't have a listing for "My Life as a C... Oh wait a sec..

    --
    Trolling is a art,
    1. Re:Weird... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    2. Re:Weird... by wackysootroom · · Score: 1

      C'mon. You you people who modded the parent down can't honestly say that you didn't think of something along the same lines...

      Let's be honest now.

    3. Re:Weird... by kurosawdust · · Score: 2, Funny
      Amazon doesn't have a listing for "My Life as a C... Oh wait a sec..

      Don't worry - Bill O'Reilly's new book will be out soon.

    4. Re:Weird... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're thinking of "Quont," which is a derogatory term in Scotland.

      Common Useage: "Ye'r a quont!"

  2. For a second... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    ...I thought they had come out with a sequel to The Vagina Monologues.

  3. HAHAHA by cculianu · · Score: 1

    That's pretty funny man. I love any punts involving the C-word.

    Reminds me of the Curb Your Enthusiasm episode "Beloved Aunt" where there's a typo in the obituary and she is a "Beloved C--t".

    Such simple obvious humor but it's hilarious!!

    1. Re:HAHAHA by CreatureComfort · · Score: 1



      Back in college my roommate dated a girl who was attending a neighboring college. When she dumped him, he went out and had a t-shirt made...

      My ex is a

      Coed at the

      University of

      North

      Texas

      --
      "Unheard of means only it's undreamed of yet,
      Impossible means not yet done." ~~ Julia Ecklar
  4. More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by gwernol · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Thanks for the review - sounds like an interesting book. On this topic, can anyone recommend a good technical introduction to the techniques used for quantative analysis on Wall Street? Derman's book is more of a memoir than a technical introduction: does the latter exist?

    --
    Sailing over the event horizon
    1. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by fizban · · Score: 2, Informative
      --

      +1 Insightful, -1 Troll. What can I say, I'm an Insightful Troll.

    2. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by Bill+Walker · · Score: 3, Interesting
      It's a wide-ranging and extremely esoteric topic. I'd suggest you go look at Nuclear Phynance for some discussions on the different pricing issues, just to get a taste of the sort of stuff involved.

      I wouldn't expect to see any world-beating techniques in any book you can find, because the industry is new enough that these ideas remain proprietary.

      --
      Please, for the love of God, no more car analogies.
    3. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by TheWizardOfCheese · · Score: 4, Informative

      The book recommended by the parent is an excellent practical discussion about exchange-traded options. It is not, however, "a good technical introduction to the techniques used for quantative analysis on Wall Street", being neither technical nor about derivative securities in general.

      The standard recommendation is Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives by John Hull, and this is in fact a very good book and simultaneously a good introduction to many OTC derivatives. I like Paul Wilmott's book On Quantitative Finance. (This book comes in several versions, some longer and some shorter.)

      The books mentioned above stress PDE-based analysis. If you would prefer an approach based on martingale theory, try Financial Calculus by Baxter and Rennie. An Introduction to the Mathematics of Financial Derivatives by Neftci is a more elementary version; think of it as "Stochastic Calculus for Dummies." Neither of these two books contains much information about traded contracts.

      --

      "The good reader is a rarer swan than the good writer."
    4. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by fizban · · Score: 0, Troll

      And for something more technical, try this:

      Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives

      --

      +1 Insightful, -1 Troll. What can I say, I'm an Insightful Troll.

    5. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by DavidHumus · · Score: 1

      A good, thorough introduction to the general principles underlying Quant analysis is Grinold and Kahn's Active Portfolio Management (see http://finmath.com/GrinoldKahnAPM.html).

    6. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by willis · · Score: 3, Informative

      For the beginner, who's just getting a handle on volatility, etc, I think Natenberg is a far better starting place (just the first 6 chapters) -- everything is explained conceptually. After that, it makes sense to jump into the equations in Hull, etc. Taleb is good once you get the hang of things, too...

      --

      there is no thing
      what else could you want?
    7. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by Lawrence_Bird · · Score: 3, Informative

      Having a MS in FE I can say that if you can't handle Hull
      straight out of the box you should persue other career
      objectives.

      Also as a former currency and bond trader I can say one of
      the issues with modelling in general is liquidity is not
      adequately accounted for. It's wonderful to have a
      theoretical price, but if the spread is wide enough to drive
      a truck through that takes a way a lot of its good.
      Likewise when it comes to determining fair market when the
      shit is hitting the fan. 1994 was a *very* good year to
      illustrate that.

      That isn't at all to say modelling and the rest of hte
      work of quants is not useful or necessary, just that some
      people tend to elevate it to levels beyond reasonable and
      worse, apply theory in a vacuum.

      But any of you at all interested in this stuff really need
      to have a sound grounding in calc and differential equations
      at a minimum. A few courses in numerical methods are
      helpful too.

    8. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by Seculus · · Score: 1
      A lot of the quant action is in valuing and hedging options. A good primer on what options are, how to use them and some of the basic aspects of pricing and hedging is the book by Hull, also recommended by some other people here.

      It is a bit of a stretch to consider his book technical. The mathematics behind options valuation is stochastic integration (or stochastic differential equations), which is slightly mind-boggling at first. A good and reasonably simple book on this theory was recently published by Steven Shreve and is called Stochastic Calculus for Finance. It is two volumes and the meat is in volume II. Understanding this theory does require a certain amount of mathematical sophistication.

    9. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by lowwave · · Score: 1

      Hull's book is very empirical, it contains a lot of details of how markets work. Not a very sound theory book.

      Wilmott has several versions of books on QF. He pretends to be Feynman, it is always laughable. Most of his approach is based on PDE, not martingale method (SDE). But it is very good intro book.

      I guess many physicists would like Baxter and Rennie's book. It is written in a style of your fellow graduate student giving you two hour "how it is done" lecture. Fast and straight to the point, not much detail and proof. But very effective for solving problems. (mostly it is about SDE and girsanov theorem.) nicely done.

      An advance book would be Duffie's Dynamic asset pricing, it is very pretentious book, the guy pretends to be a mathematician. The book is very dense and concise. If you know the stuff, you would marvel at the author's presentation. (He only used half page to describe Probability space.) In my opinion, it is more like a book length review than a textbook, not recommended for beginner.

      My favorite is Bjork's "
      Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time". It has right balance of math and intuition. A great book for a learner.

      On implementation side, there are a free C++ quantlib you can check out, also a book by Duffy about using C++ in pricing financial instrument.

    10. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by willis · · Score: 1

      I hear ya - hull makes more sense for the structurer/modeler/trader, and could be a good screener. I deal a lot with support staff that wants to understand what an option is / introduction to volatility (like people who do exchange connectivity, etc). For IT people looking to understand roughly what it's about, I think Natenberg is a good introduction.

      --

      there is no thing
      what else could you want?
    11. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by willis · · Score: 1

      BTW, IANAQ.

      --

      there is no thing
      what else could you want?
    12. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the markets set the price.

      quants tell you your risks.

    13. Re:More technical introduction to Quant analysis? by Lawrence_Bird · · Score: 1

      if you are speaking of risk analysis, that is just one
      area. If you are speaking of models, it is not entirely
      true, even in simple cases of vanilla options. People
      dont just wake up and say 'oh I'll pay 3 bucks for those
      calls'. They input the relevant variables into a model
      which generates a price. Yes, there are market based
      assumptions which go into that model (implied vol), but the
      price itself is out of a black box. And different option
      models will generate a differnt price. Obviously things
      get much more complicated when you move into pricing
      products which are dependent on cashflows whos timing (and
      payment) are not certain. There may be no or limited
      secondary market for the what it is you are pricing. In
      that case it matters not that somebody deals on your price,
      'setting a price'. What matters is that your pricing
      model and its assumptions will prove accurate, or at
      least that you ripped off the custy to give yourself a
      nice cushion

  5. Pattern analysis by ikewillis · · Score: 1, Interesting
    I would say what this is fundamentally saying is that the interrelationships of the stock market mimic the interrelationships of the spontaneously broken symmetries of the universe.

    This can especially be seen in M-theory, the successor to string theory, which states that what we perceive as the background noise of the universe, fluxuations in the fabric of space-time itself, result not from perturbations of the big bang but the interactions of structures called "branes" which span multiple universes which we perceive as 2-dimensional vibrating strings.

    These relationships can be likened to the stock market where the valuations of particular stocks affect the valuations of other related stocks, and the only way to gain a gestalt view is to analyze and derive the interrelationships of the entire system.

    1. Re:Pattern analysis by K. · · Score: 3, Funny

      Please don't sign me up for your newsletter.

      --
      -- Proud descendant of semi-nomadic cattle-herders.
    2. Re:Pattern analysis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The pot must be good where you're from.

    3. Re:Pattern analysis by Bill+Walker · · Score: 5, Informative
      These relationships can be likened to the stock market where the valuations of particular stocks affect the valuations of other related stocks, and the only way to gain a gestalt view is to analyze and derive the interrelationships of the entire system.

      This is impossible. First off there is structural error when you attempt to correlate returns-- the returns of a lot of instruments are far from normally distributed, and I have yet to see a factor model that even comes close.

      Secondly, and more importantly, you are not receiving a complete picture if you just look at the numbers in the system. As we are speaking about the global economy, the 'entire system' you mention includes the actions of every single person on the planet as well as the weather, etc.

      The quants aren't usually trying to predict the overall movement of the market. This is called a "Global Macro" strategy, and relies mostly on qualitative assessments. Quants mainly work on pricing inefficiencies (arbitrage), which can get extremely complicated. Check out When Genius Failed for an example of a quant-based strategy. (Financial purists please leave me that simplification).

      --
      Please, for the love of God, no more car analogies.
    4. Re:Pattern analysis by Uber+Banker · · Score: 1

      IAWTP

      Of course never forget the independent variance-covariance condition, which is quant-101 material, but seems to get forgotten by all finance commentaries.

      Relating to non-normal returns (some models use t-stats, but these may be similarly faulty) have you come across 'Omega Metrics' - it is a risk/return tradeoff function that uses the entire underlying distribution without making any assumptions r.e. the shape. Of course this means it is a sample descriptor, not a universal error function which could be parametrically defined (though you could monte-carlo a selection of scenarios defined along some qualatitive basis). Omega is being promoted by 'The Finance Development Centre', I can forward some papers if interested (web link not to hand). Fractals also seem to be having a new lease of life (and these can be parametric) with Mandlebrot's recent book.

    5. Re:Pattern analysis by portscan · · Score: 1

      The trades executed by Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund whose woeful tale is told in When Genius Failed were very much a "global macro" fund. Most of their work dealt with the relative values of various government bonds. There is quite a bit of quantitative analysis that can go into this, however, you can do many things without tons of data-crunching as well. It is true, however, that they did consider their strategies to be arbitrage.

    6. Re:Pattern analysis by Bill+Walker · · Score: 1
      Oh, Christ, don't mention that shit around me ;).

      If any of you non-finance geeks are reading this, omega is basically the betting odds that you'll do as well or better than a given threshold return. You usually look at the logarithm of the entire function of thresholds.

      But wtf do you do with that? It doesn't make much intuitive sense once you have it as a logarithm, but you can't graph the function without transforming it.

      Moreover, you can't use it as a quick rule of thumb, as you can with Sharpe ratios. Since its whole point is to show the variations of a distribution, it's pointless simply, say, to set it at the risk free rate and use that as a comparison.

      I was playing around with showing the residuals between the omega of a given hedge fund and with a normal distribution, or between two hedge funds, but again it doesn't really make any intuitive sense to me.

      Maybe in a few years when I have some more experience and math under my belt I'll find something useful to do with it, but for now I haven't seen anything useful.

      Mandlebrot's book is next on my list though. It's nice to see I'm not the only finance geek on this site. Gets frustrating resisting the urge to reply to some of the crap that passes as economics around here :).

      --
      Please, for the love of God, no more car analogies.
    7. Re:Pattern analysis by Uber+Banker · · Score: 1

      Gets frustrating resisting the urge to reply to some of the crap that passes as economics around here :).

      Ah ha! Indeed.

      Omega really is pretty interesting (it has a really nice spinoff into prospect theory, using it as utility function/method rather than the traditional (and pretty suspect) additive utility). Don't look at the logs, it starts to get hard to understand scales then. But the threshold idea makes sense - if the distribution is asymetric (and not specifiable through skew or kurtosis) - then there is no (known) way to rank a selection of distributions - investors tend to have preferences/limits, so the threshold is modelled on them.

      Yeah its being promoted as a hedge fund (and long only too, but less aggressively) analysis tool, which should be founded in some rationality, given the promotion of hedge funds is persistent return (adjusted for style bias), and that the return is a behavioural function of the market. But, as I posted earlier, a decent quantative model all comes down to its specification, which is 100% qualatitive. Despite Omega's difficulty in implementation, I'm pleased the issue of asymetric distributions is getting aired, as Shapre rations and Alpha-Beta calculations are blindly accepted as truth even with the asset managers with the biggest names, what gets promoted is a statistical coincidence at best 95% of times.

      Automata are cool to model too, but I've not found much application outside of hypotheticals, I find them most useful in worse case scenarios, extreme events.

    8. Re:Pattern analysis by Capt.+Dick+Jackman · · Score: 1
      Doh, there's another omega?

      Nonstandard notation bothers the hell outta me. You statistics and finance people need to be brought into line.

      In measure theoretic probability we define a random variable X on the probability space (Omega, F, P).

      In partial differential equations, Omega is usually the the open subset of R^n within which a given PDE holds.

      Sorry to be a mathematical notation Nazi, but I'm a bit of a follower of Bourbaki. Shit's hard enough without bad notation.

      --
      Anyone who isn't confused really doesn't understand the situation.
    9. Re:Pattern analysis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would say what this is fundamentally saying is that the interrelationships of the stock market mimic the interrelationships of the spontaneously broken symmetries of the universe.

      I wouldn't. The discussion had nothing to do with spontaneous symmetry breaking.

      This can especially be seen in M-theory, the successor to string theory, which states that what we perceive as the background noise of the universe, fluxuations in the fabric of space-time itself, result not from perturbations of the big bang but the interactions of structures called "branes" which span multiple universes which we perceive as 2-dimensional vibrating strings.

      I have no idea what it means for a brane to span "multiple universes". In M-theory, there is just THE universe, which is 11-dimensional, and a brane sits within it. Branes are not "2-dimensional vibrating strings", they're 2-dimensional vibrating membranes. Or at least, 2-branes are; you can have branes of all dimensions. I don't know what you're talking about with regard to the "background noise of the universe", either. First you refer to perturbations of the Big Bang, which suggests you're talking about the anisotropies of the cosmic background radiation. But in M-theory, those are the result of brane interactions which give rise to perturbations in the Big Bang; there is no either-or.


      These relationships can be likened to the stock market where the valuations of particular stocks affect the valuations of other related stocks, and the only way to gain a gestalt view is to analyze and derive the interrelationships of the entire system.

      There is essentially no relationship between M-theory and the stock market. Your "insight" consists of nothing more than the vacuous "things interact with other things", which can be said of any theory whatsoever.
    10. Re:Pattern analysis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is more mathematics than mathematical notation.

      This reminds me... I once had a professor attempt to reuse "b" as a variable in a rather lengthy proof. When the class pointed out his abuse, he thought about it for a few seconds. Then he darkened the new "b"(on a chalkboard), proclaimed that it was "b bold," and continued on with the proof.

  6. Don't do this by Soporific · · Score: 0

    I called my girlfriend a Quant once and boy did I get hell for that...

    ~S

    1. Re:Don't do this by Torontoman · · Score: 1

      Reminds me of a joke I once heard: I spent the summer abroad. Couldn't get used to wearing heels and a dress. (sounds better spoken and I know.... off topic).

    2. Re:Don't do this by CountrySon · · Score: 0

      Another expression you might want to avoid: "See you next Tuesday." :)

  7. Extremely off topic by Kelowna.Blue · · Score: 1

    Is it just me or is Groklaw 404'd? http://www.groklaw.net/

    1. Re:Extremely off topic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's down here too (London, 21:00 GMT)

    2. Re:Extremely off topic by hackstraw · · Score: 1

      Yeah, 404ed, but interesting is that http://bt.etree.org/ did the same thing with the same error. I don't know if they are on the same server or not, but I thought I'd be wayyy offtopic as well.

  8. That aint nerd-speak, bro by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Somebody get that damn fish in here to translate!

  9. More info by Raunch · · Score: 2, Informative

    Slate has a thing on computer aided trading today as well: http://www.slate.com/id/2112392/

    --
    George II -- Spreading Freedom and American values, one bomb at a time.
  10. Just in case by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Any of you basement-dwelling filthy linux using slashbots fancy a job in this area, remember to take a shower before you go for the interview, and when asked what you think of Microsoft products, try and keep your rabid Lunix Zealotry to a minimum, and realise that people working in these places are almost certainly smarter than you.
    Also, the working day at some of these places makes EA look like a bunch of part-timers. So know what you're getting yourself into.

    1. Re:Just in case by Lawrence_Bird · · Score: 1

      the parent is correct about the hours involved. Even those
      who are front office work some very long days, and lunch is
      usually something that happens the week between xmas and
      new years. Depending what markets and products you are
      involved in can also result in quite a few stressed out
      late night phone calls.

      Of course the pay does tend to compensate to an extent but
      burnout and lack of life outside of the street does take
      its toll.

  11. rich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't see anything that says he got rich doing whatever it is he did.

    1. Re:rich? by fijimf · · Score: 1

      I believe he was a partner at Goldman when they went public. He's doing OK.

  12. A laureate... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...is a person. Being given a laureate might be legal in certain parts of Africa, but not here in the west.

    1. Re:A laureate... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought it was one of those ropes you twirl over your head.

  13. Minor correction to review by radish · · Score: 1


    "Goldman Sachs" (the bank Derman works for) doesn't have a comma in it's name. Strictly speaking it's actually "Goldman Sachs & Co.", but the last bit is frequently missed off when you're referring to the group as a whole rather than the individual US company.

    --

    ---- Den ene knappen er powerknapp, den andre er Bender voice knapp "Bite My Shiny Metal Ass"

    1. Re:Minor correction to review by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      since you started correcting shouldn't comma go inside quotes "Goldman Sachs & Co.," instead of "Goldman Sachs & Co.",.

    2. Re:Minor correction to review by vrai · · Score: 1

      The later form is perfectly acceptable when using British English. Anyway people usually just refer to them as "Goldmans" or "that place where they all work one hundred hour weeks".

  14. Great story from that board by GoofyBoy · · Score: 1

    The question was about Dollar Cost Averaging not being the best method of investment (vs. investing it all at once).

    Someone replies with a point which I believe is key to investing;

    I have not read that paper or anything like it, but ignorance has never stopped me before from commenting. I am completely sure that if I did some monte carlo simulations it would show that statistically dollar cost averaging is not the optimal strategy. For example, if I understand your issue, an investor has a bunch of money and he can either invest it now or parcel it out over a number of periods. The monte carlo says invest it all now.

    WRONG. To hell with that monte carlo simulation. Damn it to hell. Not even one of the top circles, but damn it down to the greatest level of pain and suffering. A few years ago (you can fill in the dates easily) there was a very long period of high stock returns. We had relatives fearful of the market, stocks sound scary and all. And each year that went by we would tell them of our double digit returns even in the indexes, while they were getting CD rates. This went on year after year. We kept telling them to invest. Finally, they announced they opened a brokerage account and invested a significant part of their money in the Vanguard Growth Index mutual fund.

    And, you can guess what happened. This was about 2 months before the crash. I have to see these relatives weekly, and weekly I am reminded how they finally listened to my professional advice. Great. I would never never never never never never never again suggest that someone invest without hedging it somewhat by stringing out the investments over a period of time. Difference between real life and the damn monte carlo. Damn damn monte carlo.

    --
    The surprise isn't how often we make bad choices; the surprise is how seldom they defeat us.
    1. Re:Great story from that board by Bill+Walker · · Score: 1
      Hehe. I do a bunch of monte carlos myself. I have to keep reminding my less financially-literate boss that past performance is not indicative of future results when I show him the analysis.

      "You mean we could have a Sharpe ratio of 5 if we create this portfolio!!?!"
      "No, you would have done if you'd created it five years ago."

      Big...freaking...difference.

      --
      Please, for the love of God, no more car analogies.
    2. Re:Great story from that board by Uber+Banker · · Score: 1

      Dude,

      Monte Carlo modelling is a technique, which is pretty sweet. The hard part is specifying the relationship and choosing the distribution of the error - but these are human choices. Investing over a period of time will reduce risk, but not necessarily in an optimal way - good model specification and an aggressive strategy has lower risk than time-averaging, but then good model specification is the holy grail, I suppose.

      Although I have my own biases of things I 'like' and thing I, well, don't, I find it very useful to keep a loudmouth devil's advocate on my shoulder. That seems to do the trick.

  15. It's just you. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Twit.

  16. Black Holes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So Derman went from black holes to its financial equivalent, Black Scholes.

  17. John Hull's book kicks butt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    I worked in the field for ten years CBOE / BOT.

    Hull's book is where its at. Don't understand it? Then don't jump in.

  18. agree with parent... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    my FE classes used or "recommended" the hull book.

  19. Review or self-indulgent babble? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The author spends little time talking about the book, and much time spewing a lot of sycophany and finishes up with a self-indulgent rant about himself that no one cares about.

    1. Re:Review or self-indulgent babble? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It did rapidly devolve into a mini-essay attempting to demonstrate just how similar the reviewer was to Mr. Derman, except for the fame and success part. Mere details.

  20. Where does one get the info? by utexaspunk · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I've temped at a mutual fund place before, which had me thinking about this kind of stuff, and I was wondering where one can get this kind of information on the internet. I realize that one can pull up stuff from yahoo or whatever, but is there some place where one can get large quantities of raw historical data on a multitude of stocks? and how does one tie their computer into trading programs? surely there's something better than just scripting e*trade, or whatever, right? there should be an open source toolkit for this kind of stuff...

    1. Re:Where does one get the info? by DotDotSlasher · · Score: 4, Informative

      HSQuote is a front-end to Yahoo's historic data. Free full-featured demo for 15 days or so. Basically it lets you download years of each-day-end information (open value, close, high, low, volume). In a few miniutes I was able to get years (I set begin year to 1900) of results from the fortune 500 companies (had to find that list separately - then process in groups smaller than 125 tickers). I was all ready to code up some predictive functions to figure out what the market was probably going to do next, if it was a good time to sell or buy or hold, similar to Timing Cube. Oh well, maybe one day.

    2. Re:Where does one get the info? by Seculus · · Score: 1

      The standard academic sources for stock quotes in US markets are CRSP (for daily quotes) and TAQ (for transaction-by-transaction) databases. Both are currently maintained at Wharton and are not free.

    3. Re:Where does one get the info? by WSSA · · Score: 2, Informative

      Easy peezy:

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MSFT

      There are modules in CPAN to do the scraping for you (check out BeanCounter.pm)

    4. Re:Where does one get the info? by ezzzD55J · · Score: 1

      I've tried to look for this, but so far have found only sources that charge for this information, and not even in very high (time) resolution.. I've love to know more about this too.

    5. Re:Where does one get the info? by attam · · Score: 1

      I believe we use TAQ at a cost of approx. $800 US per month. But that's hardly even an afterthought in this business... things like Bloomberg terminals for news and quotes run around $1600 US per month per terminal. It's a dog eat dog biz.

    6. Re:Where does one get the info? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Scripting E*TRADE? Are you serious?

      If you try and do that, in the long run you will lose (you will underperform the market), because even if everything else is equal, the "pros" have access to information and trading seconds before you do.

      And don't forget that in the short term, the market is random.

      You should read some of the stuff being talked about here. Like MPT (modern portfolio theory). Diverse portfolios with long-term horizons give the best returns.

      On the other hand, go ahead and trade away, I'm sure I'll be on the other end of a couple of your losing trades. I only "trade" once every 2-3 years tho.. :-)

      Or hey, go back and work on wall street. *Those* guys always win because they can beat everybody else to the punch. But if any individual investor thinks they will get anything out of trading except a long schedule D and an empty bank account, they are nuts!

    7. Re:Where does one get the info? by gnuLNX · · Score: 0

      I have built a great mysql data base from the stock investor pro database...chech the aaii.com web site.

      Also if you are relaly interested then check out the motely fool mechanical investor discussion board....there are some pretty serious people on the board and many that have web based access to the same database I have. It is free to read, but costs to join....if you are into it then the cost is worthwwhile.

      www.fool.com

      Then go to discusion boards...and look for mechanical invesing.

      Cheers and good luck

      --
      what?
    8. Re:Where does one get the info? by Quixote · · Score: 2, Informative
      What BS!

      You want to download data from Yahoo, go to the "historical prices" page for the stock, and look near the bottom: they have a link to download the data in CSV format. You don't need any specialised software for that!

      Example: go to IBM's historical prices page, and note the link at the bottom, "Download to Spreadsheet".

  21. How Does One Break In? by BlueRain · · Score: 1

    Do any quants read Slashdot?

    Yes, i'll read the book, but I think things may have changed since it was written.

    Cheers, J

    1. Re:How Does One Break In? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      yup! Myself and another dozen or so other physicists work in various quant type positions at various banks in the Toronto area.

    2. Re:How Does One Break In? by badmammajamma · · Score: 1

      How do you feel about being called a quant?

      --
      Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. -- H. L. Mencken
  22. A different opinion on this book by randomwalker · · Score: 4, Informative

    I am currently reading this book and i am not quite so thrilled by it as the reviewer. My complaints so far include
    - i am almost half way through and he has not started working as a quant yet
    - Can be boring at times. At one point he starts discussing which radio station he was listening to on his commute. It is inconsistent in content, sometimes very interesting and some time really boring. Maybe it was padded to fill up the required pages.
    - Not technical, some of his physics research sounds really interesting, but he does not go into details.
    - Not the most lively writting style.

    I have no regrets about reading this book, and i will finish it, but i am starting to loose interest in the middle. Hopefully it picks up bit in the second half.

    1. Re:A different opinion on this book by charliedickinson · · Score: 1

      Yes, to be honest, I think the narrative drive of this memoir was sputtering a bit by the time Derman made it to Boulder. But please hang in there, by page 143, when Derman shows up at Goldman Sachs and meets Fischer Black, the story really kicked into gear for me. I didn't expect in a book replete with technical models to find, dare I say, a soulful reminiscence about one's mentor. Thanks for the comment & I think you're half-right ;-)

  23. Career Advice by Uber+Banker · · Score: 1

    Michael Page, a quite-big finance-orientated recruiter/headhunter, wrote a very excellent piece on actually getting work as a quant, which people reading the comments on this story may find useful.

    The link if chalmers.se because that's what Google gave me (didn't have the story bookmarked, had to search for it) - sorry don't have an original Michael Page URL. Please survive.

  24. Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Does anyone else find it discouraging that a very smart theoretical physicist ended up being paid huge amounts of money for what is, essentially, non-productive work? This guy could have found a unified field theory by now. Instead, he's helping rich people to transfer money between each other in what is effectively a complex form of gambling.

    We have our priorities all wrong.

    --
    sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    1. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Does anyone else find it discouraging that a very smart theoretical physicist ended up being paid huge amounts of money for what is, essentially, non-productive work?
      Non-productive? Derivatives can be used for gambling, but they can also be used for transferring risk and creating greater efficiency in the marketplace. If there weren't smart people figuring out what the right prices should be, bid-ask spreads would be wider and commerce would be less efficient. People are paid good money for doing this stuff because there is real value in the result.

      This guy could have found a unified field theory by now. Instead, he's helping rich people to transfer money between each other in what is effectively a complex form of gambling.
      So your idea of "productive" work is creating a unified field theory? If such a theory were found tomorrow, how would it improve anyone's life? A unified field theory would be useful for calculating things during the first second of the big bang. It is otherwise worthless.

      I have a PhD in theoretical physics and I've worked as a quant. Life as a quant beats the hell out of physics any day.

    2. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by nelsonal · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If you borrowed money to buy a house (or your landlord borrowed money to buy your apartment) you can thank a quant for getting the callable bond market off the ground. Valuing those securities was one of the first applications of this field. Without this work you would probably be paying several percentage points more in interest.

      --
      Degaussing scares the bad magnetism out of the monitor and fills it with good karma.
    3. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by portscan · · Score: 1

      actually, mostly they are taking the money away from less sophisticated (and usually less wealthy) people, not transfering it among each other. once you have money, you pay smart trading strategists to "beat the market" in exchange for a share of the profits.

      still discouraged? :-)

    4. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by pbhj · · Score: 1

      "Derivatives can be used for gambling, but they can also be used for transferring risk"

      What I know about derivatives can be written on the head of pin ... however (as this is slashdot :0)> ... surely the "transferring risk" means getting better odds on your gamble? And the greater efficiency [sounds like marketing speak]: I'm thinking you are using a narrowly defined definition of efficiency such as monetary growth or something.

      The UFT quote might be a little off the mark, however (s)he is right about the non-productive part. After all, what materials do you process? What products do you output?

      Someone else comments on moving money around between Fat-Cats. That's not how it works. People get rich (on the whole) by other people getting poor.

    5. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by gnuLNX · · Score: 0

      First I would like to point out the obvious to everyone...your Ph.D. in theoretical physics does not make you an expert on the entire field of theoretical physics...second your assertion that a unified field theory would only help for calculating things in the first second of the big bang leads me to believe that you do not in fact even have an undergrad degree in theoretical physics...

      And sorry...but any way you put your job (if you really are a quant analyst) is to simply (ok complexly) determine how you can better the odds of you company making more money that the other company. Yes econimcs has it's place...but your benifits will only help the people of this generation...a theoretical physicist could change the world...and no you will never change the world with a new economic theory.

      --
      what?
    6. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Non-productive? Derivatives can be used for gambling, but they can also be used for transferring risk and creating greater efficiency in the marketplace.

      i.e. calculating the odds for gambling and more efficiently gambling, respectively. :-)

      I admit to being a bit tongue-in-cheek, but let's face it: "the marketplace" is so unbelievably artificial, you start to wonder if you occupy the same universe that it does. Not only are we buying and selling things, we're now buying and selling first derivatives of things. By my reckoning, that's about two steps removed from actually making and doing things.

      So your idea of "productive" work is creating a unified field theory? If such a theory were found tomorrow, how would it improve anyone's life?

      I don't know offhand, but unifying electricity and magnetism gave us radio communications, and similar discoveries since then have given us lasers, semiconductors, MRI scanners and superconductors. Who knows what a unified theory would give us. Practical fusion power? Anti-gravity (if such a thing were possible)?

      I have a PhD in theoretical physics and I've worked as a quant. Life as a quant beats the hell out of physics any day.

      That says a lot for the way that we treat our physicists. Like I said, we have our priorities wrong.

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    7. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by akgoatley · · Score: 1
      pbhj said:
      Someone else comments on moving money around between Fat-Cats. That's not how it works. People get rich (on the whole) by other people getting poor.
      Actually, merely "moving money around between Fat-Cats" will raise how much people value whatever currency is being used and will make "People get rich".
      Explanation: Economic growth is when more money changes hands faster (trade). Reference: Circular Flow Model - it's basic stuff.
      Ashton
      --
      (-(friend^2))^(1/2)
      Incoming mod-bombing for having a different viewpoint, 2 o'clock! Heads up!
    8. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 0
      If you borrowed money to buy a house (or your landlord borrowed money to buy your apartment) you can thank a quant for getting the callable bond market off the ground.

      OMG! Nooo! Serious? You mean there were no money lenders and money borrowers before quants?! Why, although I am an agnostic, I could swear that dude Jesus was moaning something about "usurers" and "money-changers"...

      And I could swear the "percentage points" had way more to do with greed, competition and the central bank's politically motivated rate then with "callable bond market". But then again I am not a priest of mumbo-jumbo, voodoo, calculus-probabilistic-binary-stochastic multi-dimensional economics, like these dudes who blazed that trail before you.

      For those who didnt get it: this whole "quant" subject is the modern rendition of the old traveling salesman selling the "patented" and "amazing", Kernel Sam's "secret" forumula snake-innard cure-all potion from the back of his wagon. A fool and his money....

    9. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by glitch23 · · Score: 0

      It doesn't take a rich person to buy stock. Some stocks are $1 a share and obviously with $100 you could buy 100 shares. Obviously unless its an oddity the stock won't go up much but then again it won't go down that much either.

      --
      this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
    10. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1
      It doesn't take a rich person to buy stock.

      How much does it cost to compete with a rich person who has a few quants?

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    11. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by pbhj · · Score: 1

      But it seems you can't move money around without leakage from the CFM as eg. banks are not totally included in the framework.

      Of course capitalists can applaud the strength of their system as the poorer you make people the harder they have to work to make ends meet, thus stimulating growth!!

    12. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by akgoatley · · Score: 1

      Er...yes banks are...?
      Banks borrow from individuals to lend at a higher rate to individuals and organisations. The profits from this pay dividends to investors, salaries for workers, and expenses to other organisations.

      What else do banks do that isn't included in that?

      --
      (-(friend^2))^(1/2)
      Incoming mod-bombing for having a different viewpoint, 2 o'clock! Heads up!
    13. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Red+Pointy+Tail · · Score: 1


      Actually, if I buy derivatives as a risk mitigation instrument - I am actually *reducing* the gamble I'll be taking if I do not buy it.

      Anyhow, if you pursue to the end the argument that jobs that deal with such intangibles are 'artificial' and not 'real', then you will end up throwing out almost all service professions as 'artificial': like lawyers, politicians, accountants, bankers, IT specialists, etc. In fact, anyone that does employ their labour to directly transform an actual physical product (say, wood) into one of higher value (chair) would be artificial.

      I develop IT systems for big companies, but on your accounting, I am a just trying to make a buck out of the inefficiencies suffered by that big company. And so lawyers are milking the justice system, the politicians are milking the government, and the derivative traders who sought to minimize risk are shafting the world.

      On the other hand, there may be a genuine positive value to what we do to improve the situation, and maybe we should be measured on if our individual actions makes the world (with all its warts and inefficiencies) a better or worse place, instead of broadly sweeping something as bad.

      And so not all lawyers are bad - just those that milk it for their own gains. And not all derivative trading is bad - only those that cause more harm than good by taking gambles that either risk other peoples money entrusted to them, or causes distortion that hurt other economies.

    14. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1
      Anyhow, if you pursue to the end the argument that jobs that deal with such intangibles are 'artificial' and not 'real',

      ...which I did not even pursue from the beginning.

      Take a waiter, for example. There is nothing artificial about eating. Similarly, for a lawyer, there is nothing artificial about being a powerful advocate in a tricky situation. An IT specialist maintains tools. OTOH, there is something very, very artificial about trading in derivatives.

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    15. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by brokenwndw · · Score: 1

      Please call up Southwest Airlines and tell them that they're doing nothing but gambling. They avoided the current dismal fate of most U.S. airlines by eliminating their exposure to fuel prices via futures purchases, something they could not have done effectively without a liquid derivatives market. In fact I think many corporations which are "actually making and doing things" would be very unhappy to hear that their carefully calculated risk-mitigating derivatives trades are nothing more than gambling!

      It really isn't rocket science. You know your company is okay if interest rates stay below 4%, but at 4.5% or higher you'll be in serious danger of not making your debt payments. You don't want to just bet that interest rates will stay below 4%, so you buy a cap (with 4% strike), which is a derivative that pays you money exactly when your company is taking a hit. Bingo, no more risk, and you can go back to making widgets for ignorant consumers who don't realize how important Wall Street analysts are to making what you just did possible.

    16. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1
      Please call up Southwest Airlines and tell them that they're doing nothing but gambling.

      Since they're flying planes as well as gambling, no I won't.

      When I say that the market is highly artificial, I mean it, and when I say that we have our priorities wrong, I mean it. The fact that oil prices go up in anticipation of scarcity, let alone because of scarcity, is completely irrational and artificial. The fact that you can change the interest rate on someone's loan on a whim is artificial. The fact that a business can sink because of these artifical external forces, is irrational, and playing the artificial system is gambling.

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    17. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by brokenwndw · · Score: 1

      I think you're wrong on a lot of counts, but I'll highlight one with a question.

      Scenario one. Your company will make a large profit if oil prices go down, but it will be in danger of bankruptcy if oil prices go up.

      Scenario two. Your company's profits are essentially independent of oil prices.

      In which scenario are you gambling on oil prices?

      By buying derivatives, Southwest converted scenario one into scenario two. Without oil futures, they would have been forced to gamble on oil prices (or to waste money stockpiling actual fuel). There's nothing irrational about it.

    18. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1

      I think that you're missing my main point.

      The only reason that oil prices go up and down at all is that those who produce oil get together and decide what price it will be. It's not because there's less of it to go around (though even if there is, most economists would agree that there is no rational reason for the price to go up). It's not because oil is more useful, or better quality, than it once was.

      The reason is because the world has its priorities wrong. The reason why quants are employed is not because they help you deliver a better service or produce a better product. It's more like an arms race: If the other guys have them, you must have them too, otherwise you'll get screwed. Nobody wins an arms race.

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    19. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by brokenwndw · · Score: 1

      Honestly, if your main point is that you don't want to believe in supply and demand, I can't stop you. I don't think "most economists" would agree with you-- consult any basic (non-Marxist) text in economics-- but it's your perogative.

      The fact remains that reasonable businesses have a legitimate demand for instruments like options and futures, primarily for the mitigation of risk. Even if you personally only buy soda and ipods, the companies that make these things for you have a real use for these products, and a natural desire for the best possible prices. Only with the advent of modern financial engineering, as practiced by quants, have banks been able to calculate reasonable prices for these instruments. In some sense it is an arms race, but no more so than those between Pepsi and Coca-Cola chemists or Apple and Creative engineers.

      These people have made it possible to produce a set of products which many businesses demand and use successfully to manage their finances. These are products which don't pollute, aren't bad for your health, and consume no natural resources. Most likely many people you know, possibly including you, work for businesses which hedge their risks with derivatives. Is their continued solvency a wrong priority?

    20. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by glitch23 · · Score: 0

      Who says you have to compete with the rich person? Who says you have to compete with anyone else who is in the stock market? It's not a race, or at least it shouldn't be. I would think you would be in it to help yourself or whatever, not to see if you can make more money than someone else.

      --
      this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
    21. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1
      Honestly, if your main point is that you don't want to believe in supply and demand, I can't stop you.

      Either I'm being unclear or you're misinterpreting me. Probably both.

      The fact remains that reasonable businesses have a legitimate demand for instruments like options and futures, primarily for the mitigation of risk.

      Similarly, reasonable nations have a legitimate demand for nuclear weapons. It's like the Prisoner's Dilemma: You're better off with them, but everyone would be better off if nobody had them.

      Is their continued solvency a wrong priority?

      It's wrong when businesses have to be paranoid enough about their own solvency that they need them. What concerns me is not that the system is clearly unstable, and large amounts of money is being spent on keeping your head above water in a volatile environment. This should not need to happen. Money spent on options and futures is money that is effectively being spent as insurance to protect yourself from the greed and/or stupidity of other people.

      We're not talking about businesses who sell things that people don't want to buy. We're not talking about businesses which are run incompetently. We're not talking about excessive regulation.

      Something is deeply wrong with this picture.

      I'm not suggesting that it's the rules or the system that are to blame. All I'm saying is that the people out there, who I don't know, who I don't do business with, who act irrationally and stupidly, which negatively affects my business, have their priorities wrong.

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    22. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1
      Who says you have to compete with the rich person?

      Believe me, I have to. Not in the stock market specifically. Even as an open source developer, I am running the risk of stepping on someone's frivolous software patent. They think I'm competing with them, even if I don't think so.

      If I work for someone else, my job may exist merely because the financial markets are favourable. Someone, somewhere, possibly as a group, completely unconnected with my business, may act irrationally and stupidly, tipping my business into insolvency. I am competing with the rich person whether I want to or not, because their actions affect whether or not I keep my job.

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
    23. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by brokenwndw · · Score: 1

      I don't really understand how you can sound so reasonable and yet take a basic misunderstanding of economics and risk and turn it into some kind of personal vendetta. Did you lose big money on some bad stock trade? Lose your job at Enron? Yes, people do stupid things with derivatives. Yes, people speculate irresponsibly with them. But they are much more akin to cars than nuclear weapons. There are stupid, irresponsible ways to use them, but at the core they are highly useful things that people use to good ends on a daily basis.

      As for businesses being "paranoid about their own solvency," unless you want to institute even more corporate welfare, you won't change the fact that businesses run risk. This is not because the bad men buy and sell things. This is because the universe is fundamentally unpredictable. Nobody can tell you what the weather will be like in Florida next year. No evil richniks are spending money to make it change. This doesn't mean that orange growers can't or shouldn't hedge their risk with weather derivatives! More broadly, nobody can tell you where the U.S. economy will be in ten years. This-- not men in suits behind the scenes-- is the fundamental reason interest rates are uncertain.

    24. Re:Interesting, yet discouraging by Pseudonym · · Score: 1

      I guess I'll leave the final word up to you:

      [I realize that life's not fair. I still reserve the right to get mad about it.]

      Couldn't have said it better myself. :-)

      --
      sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
  25. Pi by TheKubrix · · Score: 1

    $10 says he takes a powerdrill to the temple.

    1. Re:Pi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  26. Nice Review by Schwarzchild · · Score: 1
    That was actually a really nice story. It does make me interested actually in hearing more about the reviewer!

    One correction that I'd like to make is that there is no Nobel Prize in Economics. It is called the "Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel."

    For some reason, the injection of an Israeli veteran of the six-day war making analyses seems humorous.

    --

    "sweet dreams are made of this..."

    1. Re:Nice Review by Don+Negro · · Score: 1

      I'm guessing he knew that, hence his scrupulous use of the phrase 'Nobel Laureate'.

      --

      Don Negro
      Perl 6 will give you the big knob. -- Larry Wall

  27. One minor correction.... by TheOriginalRevdoc · · Score: 1

    There are no "Nobel laureates" in economics, because there is no such thing as the "Nobel Prize in Economics".

    The Norwegian Nobel Institute awards prizes in physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, and peace. People who win these prizes can say they won the Nobel prize.

    However, someone who wins the "The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel" hasn't won a "Nobel prize".

    1. Re:One minor correction.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, the Norwegians only award the peace prize, the rest is awarded by the Swedish Nobel institute...

  28. mod parent down! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    determining correct market values helps make things more efficient. it's not just a "complex form of gambling". why would such a thing be deemed discouraging?

  29. yup by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They have changed and the person in question is a has-been. Otherwise he wouldn't have had time to write a book after all.

    If you have to think about being suitable, you're not by the way!

    1. Re:yup by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Agreed. I work as a quant currently and equity options are about as vanilla as derivatives get. Most equity option quants/trader wouldn't describe themselves as working on derivatives.

      Credit derivatives work today is on a different planet complexity wise. I can do equity option pricing in Excel, from memory, in about five minutes.

      I'll also note the Fisher and Black borrowed heavily (stole) from diffusion calculations developed for thermodynamics. They didn't really invent anything but an application of exist techniques. That, in my mind, stands in stark contrast to real, boundary pushing science.

    2. Re:yup by BizidyDizidy · · Score: 1

      Like how Einstein just applied Riemannian geometry. Nothing to see there.

      You really know what you're talking about.

      --
      The safest way to approach lava is to have another person with you and he goes first.
  30. Starting Bell by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

    Richard Feynmann also had to decide between theoretical physics and Bell Labs (where he would have been surrounded by Nobel Laureates). He went for physics (CalTech), and became the kind of person Derman dreamed of becoming: another "Einstein", possibly the "smartest person in the world" in the second half of the 20th Century. My life is so much better for his decision.

    --

    --
    make install -not war

  31. " My life is so much better for his decision." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ok, Doc, I believe you.

    But it would be even more interesting if you would expound on exactly why your life is better.

    I am quite sincere, and this is not some sort of idiotic attempt at insult, which is so often found in /.

    1. Re:" My life is so much better for his decision." by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      His books are funnier, for one. And his work on the Manhattan Project helped stop the war and put the US on top militarily (which I have basically accepted as superior to the alternative, despite its extremely heavy human costs). While on that project, he invented parallel processing, though for human-powered adding machines. And so much quantum physics is his brainchild, not least for his simple explanations. Even if he had only reduced all of chemistry (which I hate) to Quantum Electrodynamics (QED), making it all physics (which I love), my life would be better.

      While at Bell Labs, most of his output would have been bent to merely commercial apps, which might have improved my telephone, or even some theory, but nowhere near as productive an environment as the government/academic echelon he dominated instead. He's an inspiration. And his books are funny - read them for the rest of the reasons of why your life is better for his having lived his.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

  32. Well, my personal library consists of: by Jack.Gavigan · · Score: 2, Informative

    The last one's fiction, but well worth reading.

    Obviously, these are all about the fixed income markets, as opposed to equities.

    Anyway, having said all that, you can read all the books you want, but the best way of learning the business is to sit on a trading floor, next to the traders.


    Jack

  33. Financial Mathematics Resources by arnasobr · · Score: 1

    The canonical text is Options, Futures, & Other Derivatives, by John C. Hull (I have the 4th edition). It's an excellent introduction to standard pricing models for options and simple interest rate derivatives. If you're interested in the mathematical underpinnings, I highly recommend Financial Calculus by Baxter & Rennie. It's concise but densely packed, and the principles are universal.

    If you want some web resources, try:

    1. A solid collection of credit derivative resources.
    2. An excellent overview of financial products.

    If you find the field interesting, lucrative jobs are available in derivatives technology and quantitative analysis at hedge funds and investment banks. The biggest cities for this work (in the English-speaking world) are New York, London and Chicago.

  34. merely gambling? by randy_kim_phila · · Score: 1

    although the remark about derivatives being complex forms of gambling and a horrible waste of supposed experts in the field of physics is accurate, I thought it might be useful to point out that derivatives are much more malicious than mere gambling.

    The amount of derivatives bets in the global economy is somewhere around 300 to 600 trillion dollars (the amount is not all that clear because since derivatives arent "actual" securities, they aren't made transparent under things like Fed regulationT). Its obvious that this figure is many MANY times bigger than any ACTUAL amount of equity capital to support these contracts.

    In other words, we live in a horribly over-leveraged system. A credit bubble. And nobody knows when a Barings bank, an orange county, or an LTCM goes bust and takes down an interconnected banking mess which, although the finance may have less and less to do with physical economic reality, a run on banks, hyper-inflated currencies, and other shockingly possible things certainly do.

    1. Re:merely gambling? by Capt.+Dick+Jackman · · Score: 1

      Derivatives used properly aren't gambling or malicious. In fact, they are a way to sell off risk to make sure you don't assume risks you don't have to. For example, a farmer will be guaranteed a fixed sum of money upon delivery of a crop. That way he can feed his family and not have to worry about flucuating market prices. On the other side, hedging can take these instruments and create new instruments to simulate the returns of the S&P 500 with minimized variance. If the math is done right, there's no problem. If the math is done wrong or not done at all, you're on your own. Much of the basic stuff works the same way as classical actuarial and ruin theory. Imagine living without insurance, it would suck basically. If you don't have insurance (auto, home, life, disability, medical, long term care, umbrella, and others), you are a fool. Ideally, these instruments should smooth everything out financially. They could be used improperly, but I think the effect of one bank's f*ck up should be able to be absorbed in the grand scheme of things. I doubt there will ever be a failure as spectacular as 1929. While I don't think a single bank could cause it, failure of a country (US in particular) could cause world crisis. Since I brought up the US, something to keep in mind is that the fundamental constant so to speak is the yield of the 30 year treasury bond (some operations use the shorter term US debt obligations though). When SS starts dumping it's share of gov't debt in 2017 or so, I'm wondering what kind of chaos this will cause. Don't mind what you've heard about the lockbox not existing and crap, it's all in book entry and the end result is the same. Same sort of idea with Medicare. The present value on that bad boy is $75 trillion I've read. $75 trillion could create a serious Great Depression type situation. I'm skeptical that the amount of derivatives is $300 to $600 trillion. The entire net worth of the US is $50 trillion or so. If anyone has a link, I'd like to see it.

      --
      Anyone who isn't confused really doesn't understand the situation.
  35. When Genius Failed by dgmckay · · Score: 2, Informative

    Another excellent book that touches on what quants do is When Genius Failed, by Roger Lowenstein. This book charts the rise & fall of Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that relied heavily on mathematical models to guide their trading activity. It's a cautionary tale about placing too much faith in mathematical models of markets that are not always rational.

    1. Re:When Genius Failed by CaroKann · · Score: 1

      I read this book, and I agree that it is an excellent book, very well written and entertaining. However, I thought that the author was too harsh on some of the principle players at LTCM, at times edging from simple criticism to excessive bludgeoning.

  36. beware of the image unseen by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Quantitative financial analysis looks much like weather forecasting. One can
    make it of truly mind-breaking difficulty but it continues to be "... just a
    model" (c) Monty Python. And it is another search for the Holy Grail. In fact I
    met people with different educational backgrounds, who found the market logic
    in hydrology, quantum mechanics and women behavior. And the funny thing - they
    were successful (financially) at trading.

    To make this point somewhat sound I recall the LTCM (Long Term Capital
    Management) crisis when they lost around $3bn but got a helping hand from
    banks to prevent collapse of the whole market. Nobel-prize winners were
    co-founders there - Scholes and Merton (Black-Scholes option pricing model).

    Academics are good to make reports forcing clients to act (generating revenues for the institutional banks). But in real life it is so easy to turn away from reality happily modelling something that doesn't even exist in the real world.

    PS: The series I find very interesting's called Market Wizards. Refreshing reading about
    ways of thinking of financial nerds.

  37. Oh really??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I thought that was the title to Michael Moore's new book.

    Oh wait, his title is My Life as a F'ing Fat Lardass C..t

    Sorry!

    1. Re:Oh really??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And your title is My Life as a Douchebag Conservative Cunt.

  38. I'm sorry, but... by Quixote · · Score: 1

    Does anyone else find it a bit irritating that the reviewer spends half the time talking about his own life? I mean, I'm looking for a book review, not the reviewer's life story! Cut out the chatter, please.

  39. Recommended for physicists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    To those physicists/mathematicians/engineers contemplating such a career switch, I highly recommend this book. In fact, it's the first thing I would suggest to read. From the physics perspective, Derman captures the pleasure and pain of grad school and "doing physics" as well as the misery of job hunting. From the Street perspective, he captures the weirdness of traders and corporate managers, the relentless pace of work, the surprising importance of computational infrastructure. Most important, he makes it clear that one can derive as much personal satisfaction from modeling financial reality as from modeling physical reality.

  40. You know, where I come from... by justins · · Score: 1

    you would get your ass kicked calling somebody a "Quant". Just saying.

    --
    Now before I get modded down, I be to remind whoever might read this that what I am saying is FACT. - bogaboga
  41. Re:How unique, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ha;

    You mean that girl that steped in front of a bulldozer and expected it to stop? Maybe you should get around some dozers of that size and take a saftey course or 2 about them. If she did, she would have never steped in front of it like that when she did.

    Those dozers are not like cars. She commited suicide like it or not. there just isn't any other way to describe it. accidents just like that happen in the US and the operators are declared inocent of wrong doing becasue there is a known risk of not being able to see.

    I guess stuff like this doesn't matter to racist like you. Maybe the world would be a better place if you tried to beat the living shit out of the parent poster and you dies in the process.