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Competition to Build the Space Shuttle's Successor

Neil Halelamien writes "The competition for the prime contract to build the Crew Exploration Vehicle, the successor to the Space Shuttle, is ramping up. Currently, 11 different companies are creating preliminary designs for systems and vehicles which could be useful in implementing NASA's Vision for Space Exploration. By the end of the year, NASA will select two teams to independently develop and build a CEV design. The two teams will launch competing unmanned prototypes in 2008, at which point NASA will award a final winning contract. Aerospace giants Boeing and Northrop Grumman have formed one team. Another "all-star" team, announced a couple of days ago, is headed by Lockheed Martin. A third team in the running is underdog t/Space, a company with a free enterprise approach to space exploration, which includes notable figures from the commercial spaceflight arena, such as Burt Rutan and Gary Hudson. There is concern that a NASA budget boost to help pay for the exploration program could draw some opposition, as most other government programs are anticipating budget cuts."

32 of 345 comments (clear)

  1. Enough with the links already... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    At a certain point it becomes counter-productive. Just tell me which one to click on to get the article.

  2. Common sense prevails at last! by Illserve · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "However, it is likely that the CEV will follow the module and capsule design principles used in the Apollo, Gemini, Soyuz and Shenzhou systems, instead of the reusable spaceplane design principle used in the space shuttle system"

    Hoo-ray for NASA! There's hope for them yet.

    1. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by meringuoid · · Score: 4, Interesting
      I don't really see why a spaceplane design is out of the question. The shuttle was hugely complex compared to SpaceShipOne. Couldn't a more modern design of the shuttle still be useful?

      The trouble with a spaceplane is its inefficiency. Too much of the energy expended in a Shuttle launch goes to carry the orbiter's main engines, wings and other structure into orbit. If you could leave those off, with a capsule design, you could either save a whole lot of fuel and get a cheaper launch, or use the same amount of fuel and carry a much larger payload.

      The idea behind the Shuttle was that the engines were worth keeping, and reusing them could save money. Apollo used to drop its main engines into the sea... But it turns out that there are plenty of factories on Earth capable of producing rocket engines very cheaply, so that economy didn't really work out.

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    2. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by LiquidCoooled · · Score: 3, Funny

      The NASP is still in pre-production, and will be ready soon.
      Right now, if you purchase a flying car, you get a voucher for a ticket on one of them, and also a preview beta version of Duke Nukem as well :)

      --
      liqbase :: faster than paper
    3. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by OwnedByTwoCats · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The shuttle had a mission: drive the cost of getting to Low Earth Orbit down by reusing the vehicle. To be a "space truck". At that, it failed miserably.

      The mission for the CEV, "to boost national security by providing a presence in space" is so bland, so wishy-washy, so unmeasurable, that there will never be an accounting.

      Oh, and Bush says we need to hack $300 Billion out of the budget to cut the deficit in half without raising taxes or undoing his precioussss tax cuts. Oh, and Defense is excluded. How big is the discretionary, non-defense budget? $440.9 Billion.

    4. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by stevelinton · · Score: 4, Informative

      SpaceShipOne was NOT an LEO vehicle. It got to 100km, which is the easy part
      but didn't make any attempt to get to orbital velocity, which is what takes most of the fuel, and imposes most of the mass restrictions. Boosting a set of wings and an undercarriage up to orbital velocity just so you can slow them down again and then land on a runway consumes an insane amount of fuel for too little purpose. Until we find a lauch fuel significantly more energy dense than LH2 and LO2 then the dry mass cost of wings and wheels will always be too high.

      The Scaled Composites people are involved in one of the bids and they are not proposing a space plane.

    5. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by Fred_A · · Score: 3, Funny

      Actually, work is underway on a design that makes do without engines alltogether. This reduces cost dramatically since the payload is now mostly the crew.

      You can see images of preliminary crew training here.

      --

      May contain traces of nut.
      Made from the freshest electrons.
    6. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by TheGavster · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The reason that the shuttle was inefficient is that it was designed to land without crossing the Soviet Union, not because spaceplanes in general are inefficient. You can make it rather better if you allow for a longer glide path.

      --
      "Because Science" is one step from "Because old book". Try "Because of my experiment testing my falsifiable assertion".
    7. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 5, Insightful
      It took the guys at Scaled composites to show you that they could build a cheap light, ingenious low-earth-orbit vehicle and launch it cheaply from its mother plane.

      From an energy standpoint, Space Ship One only got 3% of the way to low-earth-orbit. They still have 97% more work to do. It design is totally unsuitable for going into or out of orbit; at hypersonic speeds it would snap apart like a toothpick an burn up. Scaled Composites is basically at square one with respect to an orbital vehicle.

    8. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by Illserve · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Whatever happened to NASP (National Aerospace Plane) and all the high-tech and, more importantly, affordable to orbit vehicles that were under development before the rampant budget cuts?

      Hopefully those designs have been put in the circular file drawer where they belong. 100 years from now, our fascination with space-planes will be seen as a great folly of the later 1900's.

      Capsules are a superior re-entry vehicle in every way, and cheaper too, when you factor in maintenance costs on reusable space vehicles (with the exception of the suborbital "toys" that we hear so much about, but they won't get huge wings into LEO and back again cheaply).

      NASA knew this simple truth back in the day when they were the crackinest aerospace research agency in the world. They had blank checks for designing ugly but functional space vehicles and boy did they. Aesthetics didn't enter to into the design of the capsule and LEM then, and shouldn't now.

    9. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by Radar+Guy · · Score: 4, Informative

      Whoa - how is this insightful? Not to nitpick too much, but to say "Defense is excluded" isn't entirely accurate. A quick google search of 'budget cuts defense department' returns this Washington Post article as the *first* hit. The short of it - $55 billion in cuts over 6 years (same timeframe as the $300 billion in cuts the parent mentions), including $5 billion from missile defense.

      That might not be a huge chunk of the $300 billion, but during time of war I'd say that's definately more than "excluding" the DoD.

    10. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by R.Caley · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Hoo-ray? In a sense it seems like a giant step backwards to 1960s technology.

      No, to 1960s design rather than technology. There is nothing wrong with this if the 1960s design turns out to still be the best anyone has come up with. You do the same kind of design with more modern technology and get the best available solution to the problem.

      Just because Buck Rogers had space planes, that doesn't mean they are actually the best engineering solution, silver jump suits are not practical streetwear either.

      Look at bridges, the fundamental designes of modern bridges are really nothing a Roman would be supprised by, it's the details of the technology applied to the basic designs which makes them better.

      --
      _O_
      .|<
      The named which can be named is not the true named
    11. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by Illserve · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Incorrect, spaceplanes are inefficient in general principle. The problem is the fuel required to lift those wings and flight control mechanisms into orbit. They do you no good in space, they are only used in re-entry, so why not use a design for which you get controlled reentry dynamics(ie keeping the heat shields down and the parachute port up) for free?

      Look at what you what you need for re-entry:

      Wings
      A hugely increased heat shield
      Flaps
      Hydraulic motors for flaps
      landing gear
      more hydraulics
      more sensors
      more wiring
      more computer control
      more everything

      The weight just spirals up and up until you have a fuel tank the size of the Good Year and achieve at best a moderately safe vehicle.

    12. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by WhiplashII · · Score: 4, Interesting

      BTW, the real problem with a space plane is in the aerodynamics. To avoid superheating on reentry (compared to which the space shuttle would be freezing during renetry), all leading surfaces must be big round things. That's why the shuttle looks so un-sexy compared to fighter jets. The wings leading edges cannot be sharp - no known material would survive at 50,000 C. By making the leading edges round, they lower the temperature baring within range of Carbon-Carbon - but that makes the wing have a terrible L/D ratio. In addition, instead of a nice sleek body which could be lightweight, you now have a ponderous blob which must be reinforced at every point.

      Taking aerodynamics into consideration, the best design is really like a sphere. The closer you are to a sphere, the better. Apollo took a cone and made a good aproximation of a sphere. The shuttle takes an airplane and makes a bad approximation of a sphere. Lifting body designs look a lot more like a sphere, but soon we probably will know if they are close enough to a sphere.

      --
      while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
    13. Re:Common sense prevails at last! by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I disagree. Spaceplanes may be inherently inefficient *per mission* compared to a disposable capsule design, but if maintainance costs were lower, they would easily outshine capsules with disposable rockets.

      And maintainance doesn't *need* to be high. If the shuttle had the budget for its initial design plan (a titanium frame, no solid boosters), it never would have had any of the problems that it's had that led to high maintainence costs and its 2% failure rate.

      A couple of things about your list:

      * A hugely increased heat shield: Not really hugely increased. An optimal shape for reentry is a large, slowly curved surface, and the further from that shape, the larger amount of shielding you need for a given size and density. However, the shuttle manages relatively well given its size and density compared to what an equivalent capsule would be by turning its bottom side into the direction of incoming air.

      * Hydraulic motors for flaps: Not necessarily. Hydraulics in space are problematic because of temperature regulation (in the tanks, in the cylinders, in the lines, etc). However, it is possible to use electric actuators to replace them for most, if not all, tasks. Electric actuators are increasingly being used in high force tasks.

      However, the key issue is reusability. Reusable capsules have never really come into their own - they tend to have a pretty rough landing. The more payload return you want them to be able to bring back, the rougher it is.

      If one can get reusability without high maintainence, in any design, that truly is the holy grail of spacecraft design. :)

      --
      Freeze Ray. Tell your friends.
  3. Isn't having a goal more important than a vehicle? by bigtallmofo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Is NASA putting the cart before the horse here? Don't we need a coherent goal to shoot for before designing a vehicle? The goal as stated on NASA's site is:

    "The fundamental goal of this vision is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program."

    Could they be any more vague? Whatever happened to the days of "land a man on the moon and return him safely to the Earth." You know, goals that people actually knew what the heck you were talking about?

    --
    I'm a big tall mofo.
  4. decision making by millahtime · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This does show a fundamental lack of decision making going on in many branches of government leadership. No one wants to put forth a goal and be the leader who didn't make it. So, they don't make a goal so that way they just keep the status quo as long as they can and hope the next guy deals with it. No one or agency wants to look bad so to them it's safer to not do anything at all.

  5. Re:Where's the money going? by I+confirm+I'm+not+a · · Score: 4, Informative

    I guess the other side of the coin is the German's saying Mars by 2009. *shrug* I guess when you have nothing substantial in your space program in the past, you've got nothing to lose with ridiculous goals for the future?

    Uh, Wernher von Braun ring any bells?
    From Wikipedia: "In the United States, he is regarded as a hero of the space program."

    --
    This is where the serious fun begins.
  6. Maybe an underdog can win by __aagujc9792 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The primes (Lockheed, Boeing) know only how to burn money and koff koff manage customer relationships koff koff. I should know, I watched them do it on the X33 up close & personal. We should select Rutan as our stand in for old man Harriman. (obRAH reference) -- OPh

  7. Good Designs by NardofDoom · · Score: 4, Interesting
    I'm happy to see they're moving away from the "spaceplane" idea and getting back to capsules. In most ways they're superior to shuttle-like designs.

    For example, they self-orient on reentry, they don't have expensive and heavy control surfaces or landing gear, and from their position on the top of the rocket they can use escape systems like those in the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo programs.

    About the only thing they can't do is bring things back down from orbit. But, really, if we want a real future in space the biggest issue is getting things up there.

    --
    You have two hands and one brain, so always code twice as much as you think!
  8. Re:Isn't having a goal more important than a vehic by JediTrainer · · Score: 3, Informative

    Could they be any more vague? Whatever happened to the days of "land a man on the moon and return him safely to the Earth." You know, goals that people actually knew what the heck you were talking about?

    I thought the Wikipedia article above was very clear on what the CEV is supposed to be able to do. It mentions it's likely it'll follow the module-and-capsule approach, and is supposed to be capable of getting to LEO while also taking part in the assembly of lunar expeditions while in orbit (and, presumably Mars too, since that's a listed goal as well). Reusability is apparently desirable, but not essential to win the contract.

    --

    You can accomplish anything you set your mind to. The impossible just takes a little longer.
  9. Having the wrong goal is worse than no goal by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 5, Interesting
    The worst thing about Apollo was that its goal, though of course ambitious for the time, was too shallow. Land a man on the moon and safely return him to earth we did, and then ran out of goal and the motivation to go any farther. If the goal is not to establish a viable self-sustaining human presence in space, a permanent colony away from the perils of Earth, there is no point in sending more people out there. If the goal is just scientific exploration, robots are 1000 times more cost-effective.

    Bruce

  10. Re:Back to the drawing board? by TheKidWho · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The space plane concept wasn't bad, and it still isnt. One of the main problems with it though was because of constant budget cuts to the program NASA had to keep on taking out certain features of the shuttle which eventually made it what it is now. Some of the original concepts for the spaceshuttle were truly fascinating and much more effecient then the current shuttle.

  11. My Idea for the shuttle replacement by Sophrosyne · · Score: 3, Funny

    It should look state of the art with straight-lines, a red stripe down the side... Here are some preliminary designs for NASA:
    Image Here
    Now if we could only get Majel Barrett to do the voice-over for the computer :(

  12. The Rutan plan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    For a good overview of the Rutan proposal, check this pdf at their website. It's a heckuva read...they advocate building a real frontier which ultimately generates tax revenues. They want to use flotillas of vehicles for redundancy, and keep it simple...eg., to land on the moon, just burn more fuel and land the whole vehicle, instead of just a separate lander. Less development time, less to go wrong, and for the first 20 to 40 flights it's cheaper that way. They also ding NASA for micromanaging...they say engineers should question everything, and you can't do that if you have to justify every deviation from the written plan to NASA's managers.

  13. NASA Budget by ibm1130 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The total NASA budget ( $15+ Billion ) is a very small sub 1% fraction of US Gummint spending. Unfortunately it is in the discretionary category and lumped in with some agencies that often have a rancorous debate attached to their estimates. If other gummint agencies' budgets had been constrained the way NASA has been for the last 15 years or so, we probably wouldn't have a deficit, War On Terror notwithstanding.

  14. Re:Well well well by Dashing+Leech · · Score: 3, Insightful
    "No doubt the underdog will come up with a far cheaper design that would save Nasa millions"

    Cheap only accounts for one small criterion in the selection. I would imagine that experience would be of far greater importance. Not that the underdog shouldn't win, or doesn't have any experience, but if you were hiring someone to manage a critical huge project for your company would you hire somebody with 20 years experience doing this type of work or a new kid out of school who built a toy model of what you need for a science fair?

  15. Space Tug Boat. by Doverite · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why not build a small powerful space tug boat instead of a truck. Large payloads could be launched into space unmanned. Then the tug could pull them over and attach them to the ISS and leave them there, or drop them over the ocean when done if need be. The ISS gets completed faster and we have a small reusable space plane that could be used more efficiently and more frequently and it wouldn't need crew quarters or sleeping quarters it would use the ISS as a base station. It could be fitted with a smaller crew and quarters for higher missions such as to the Hubble if it is still there or whatever. We don't have to keep dragging tons of equipment back and forth to orbit. Part of the danger of the shuttle is its size so keep the reusable part smaller and safer. We could even build an unmanned parachuting return vehicle for bringing large equipment back down.

    --
    You can legislate morally you can't legislate morality
  16. Not Addressing The Real Problem by FireIron · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Unfortunately, neither the new Bush space initiatives, nor a new spaceship design will fix all the things that are wrong with the federal space program. Key among these problems is the lack of clear leadership and good management on NASA's Board of Directors, a.k.a. the US Congress.

    Congress has never been able to give NASA a set of clear goals, and then provided it with the long-term funding to meet those goals. This has forced NASA into sort of bureaucratic survival mode, lurching along from fiscal year to fiscal year, trying to keep moving the ball forward without a long-term roadmap to follow.

  17. Re:Benefits by ultranova · · Score: 4, Informative

    What I've never understood: what are the benefits of space exploration? Sure it gives information about space, but what's the use?

    • Asteroid mining.
    • Build really big solar energy collectors, put them into space, and beam the energy to Earth with microwaves.

      Or just use a giant collector mirror and convert to electricity on Earth - such a design could also be used as orbital beam-weapon.

    • Self-sufficient space colonies - survival of the species in case of a large meteor strike or something similar is a benefit.
    • Zero-g manufacturing - I've heard that it's possibly to build some materials only in zero-g, because gravity distorts the forming crystal structure. Does someone know more about this ?
    • Inspiration. People need something to look up to. They need heroes. Currently, movie- rock- and sports stars are fulfulling this role, and of course this leads to a culture completely obsessed with entertainment - it's not the only reason for this problem, but it is a contributing factor.

      It's a bit like politicians starting wars to drown their problems under the flood of patriotism, but channeled with a positive goal, rather than negative.

    --

    Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

  18. Re:Benefits by Darth+Maul · · Score: 3, Insightful

    We should go into space and explore simply because it is there.

    Where has our Manifest Destiny gone these days? We all would rather watch American Idol than ponder the real stars. What a shame.

    --
    --- witty signature
  19. China, Science, the Economy and the Space Elevator by metope · · Score: 5, Interesting

    First of all, I think that China will probably beat the US in terms of manned space exploration. They will go back to the moon before the US even finishes their new space vehicles. This is sad because China apparently understand economics better than current US leaders do. It might seem that the Apollo program was just a big expensive government program but the truth is that all the expensive science generated far more money that it spent. Science is good for the economy for it provides people with technology that lifts the economy and increases growth in the country. As complicated as going to the Moon and Mars and expensive as it seems might be, it is good for the economy. All the new technologies generate new industries which will further the economic growth. Our leaders in the US have forgotten that by limiting science funding and cancelling things like the particle accelerator in Texas. Second and most important, it is too expensive to think of old ways to get out of this planet. The best and most efficient way is to build the SPACE ELEVATOR. Fund nanotechnologies to get the cable for the elevator built. It is estimated that it would cost $100 a pound at the beginning to lift things into orbit using the elevator and maybe even go down to $1 a pound as more elevators are built. Science fiction but so was landing on the moon before Apollo 11.