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Personal Spaceflight Leaders Form New Federation

Neil Halelamien writes "A number of entrepreneurs in the nascent commercial space industry are establishing the Personal Spaceflight Federation, an industry group which will work with federal regulators to come up with standards to promote crew and passenger safety. The founders include both suborbital and orbital spaceflight entrepreneurs, such as Armadillo Aerospace's John Carmack, Scaled Composites's Burt Rutan, SpaceX's Elon Musk, and t/Space's Gary Hudson. Commentary available on MSNBC, Space.com, and Space Race News. In related news, NASA is looking at commercial options for resupply of the International Space Station."

197 comments

  1. Damn! by serutan · · Score: 4, Funny

    I wonder if they considered United Federation of Planets. Even just for a fleeting moment?

    1. Re:Damn! by cybersaga · · Score: 2, Funny

      "Even just for a fleeting moment?"

      Pun intended?

    2. Re:Damn! by lucabrasi999 · · Score: 2, Funny

      How about "A Federation of the Willing"? Oh, wait, that's Coalition of the Willing. Never mind.

    3. Re:Damn! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm glad the didn't use the "Alliance". As soon as they found out that the rebel base is in the Hoth system, we'd be screwed.

    4. Re:Damn! by c4miles · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Virgin Galactic (Richard Branson's $21m investment in 5 passenger craft from Scaled Composites) will be naming its first two vehicles

      "VSS Enterprise" and
      "VSS Voyager" (where VSS is Virgin SpaceShip).

      So yes, I suspect that the thought had crossed their minds :)

    5. Re:Damn! by null+etc. · · Score: 2, Funny
      I wonder if they considered United Federation of Planets.

      I sure hope they start the Personal Federation of Planets! Sign me up!

    6. Re:Damn! by ackthpt · · Score: 1
      I wonder if they considered United Federation of Planets. Even just for a fleeting moment?

      Fleeting. Ha. Ho.

      Almost as humorous as this.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    7. Re:Damn! by w3weasel · · Score: 1
      Then why not call the group "Starfleet" ?!?!?

      pity this wasted opportunity

      --

      Just as irrigation is the lifeblood of the Southwest, lifeblood is the soup of cannibals. -- Jack Handy

    8. Re:Damn! by PriceIke · · Score: 1

      I like those names a lot better than "Space Ship One", the most unoriginal spacecraft name in history.

      --
      It's not a lie. It's the truth with lossy compression.
    9. Re:Damn! by c4miles · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Then why not call the group "Starfleet" ?!?!?
      pity this wasted opportunity


      I suspect "Starfleet" is now trademarked by Universal for commercial ventures. Whether they will feel the same when an interplanetary alliance of space navies is asking to use the name is a different matter.
    10. Re:Damn! by Joe+the+Lesser · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well, if they did that it'd warp the project into a joke.

      --
      "I only speak the truth"
      Karma: null(Mostly affected by an unassigned variable)
    11. Re:Damn! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      United Federation of Planets, Virgin Galactic...aren't we overreaching a bit, here? The private companies haven't even achieved manned orbit yet.

      For a good while into the future the best we can hope for is a "United Federation of Planet" until some obvious things start happening.

    12. Re:Damn! by CaptnMArk · · Score: 1

      And VSS is Roman for USS :)

    13. Re:Damn! by Nintenfreak · · Score: 0

      What? No VSS Defiant?

    14. Re:Damn! by MetaPhyzx · · Score: 1

      Easy... that's in the sequel. :)

      --
      Blacker than my baby girl's stare. Black like the veil that the muslimina wear. Black like the planet that they fear...
  2. Question by Knights+who+say+'INT · · Score: 1

    Is Armadillo Aerospace's John Carmack the well-known game programmer?

    1. Re:Question by Steffan · · Score: 2, Informative
      Is Armadillo Aerospace's John Carmack the well-known game programmer?
      Yes.
    2. Re:Question by yotto · · Score: 1

      Which explains why, even though he's never even been to suborbital space, he was listed first.

      I keed.

    3. Re:Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeps and you can even talk over here
      http://www.xprizenews.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=23
      With him and his fellow team members about his space project!

    4. Re:Question by mOoZik · · Score: 1

      Ever hear of Doom?

    5. Re:Question by k98sven · · Score: 1

      Which explains why, even though he's never even been to suborbital space, he was listed first.

      I expect he'll show what he's useful for when a dimensional portal opens on one of their moon-bases, flooding the place with Imps and Hell Barons and flying-tomato-thingies.

    6. Re:Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    7. Re:Question by Rei · · Score: 1

      The vanes which have given them no shortage of problems?

      There's a reason that control vanes were generally given up on in favor of gimballing; not only do the sap your performance, but they're in a location that's about the worst place you could have a part as far as wear goes (the hot exhaust stream - better make it fuel-rich!!!).

      I'm still trying to decide whether there's anything good about Armadillo's approach to rocket building. They've basically been taking routes that have been largely viewed as dead ends by professional rocket engineers, and finding in them... dead ends. While I suppose that gives them the opportunity to find things that other engineers may have missed, I don't think that those on such a limited R&D budget should be taking such a pathway.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    8. Re:Question by cmowire · · Score: 1

      I'm mostly hoping that they get to flight-testing an aerospike nozle at some point.

      I think the biggest advantage that Armadillo has is that their expenses are so low by comparison. Which means that they can actually afford to try things that other folks don't, write up how well it worked publically, and maybe help out the market in general.

  3. Federation? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

    I thought Enterprise was cancelled? We still need to invent the warp drive, make first contact, and impress those aliens with how well humans can all get along.

    1. Re:Federation? by Vandil+X · · Score: 1

      Relax, man. We still have another 56 years until 2061.

      --
      Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, START
  4. As long as... by boohiss · · Score: 1, Funny

    ...it's not led by Zap Brannigan.

  5. Marketing options abound... by blcamp · · Score: 2, Funny


    Any day now, credit card companies will start offering Frequent Flier Light-Years, or something like that...

    --
    The problem with socialism is that they always run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher
    1. Re:Marketing options abound... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless a meteor resets the planet and makes fish and insects rulers of the world again.

    2. Re:Marketing options abound... by HardsetHead · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Any day now, credit card companies will start offering Frequent Flier Light-Years, or something like that..."

      Admittedly, that was tongue-in-cheek, but it does get you wondering what entirely new industries will spawn from an undertaking such as this.

      I'm sure the automotive industry pioneers in their day could not have conceived of custom airbrushed paintjobs, fancy aluminum rims or even fuzzy dice manufacturers. I suppose if I'd put more thought into it I could've come up with better examples, but it'd be interesting to look ahead a couple of hundred years to see what new roads our economy has blazed because of this.

    3. Re:Marketing options abound... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A credit card endorsed by Han Solo?
      "And this month only, if you fly the Kessel Run, Visa will give you twelve frequent-flyer parsecs!"

    4. Re:Marketing options abound... by Lord_Dweomer · · Score: 1
      " Any day now, credit card companies will start offering Frequent Flier Light-Years, or something like that..."

      And then announce that in an effort to cut costs, they're removing pillows from your cryogenic sleep chamber. Man that's going to be a long uncomfortable flight...

      --
      Buy Steampunk Clothing Online!
    5. Re:Marketing options abound... by Idarubicin · · Score: 1
      Any day now, credit card companies will start offering Frequent Flier Light-Years, or something like that...

      Why is it that you can almost never fly a full mile on one Frequent Flyer Mile? They're usually good for distances closer to a hundred yards or so....

      In the interest of truth in advertising, Virgin Galactic invites you to collect Frequent Flyer Light Microseconds.

      --
      ~Idarubicin
  6. Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Dancin_Santa · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What is the big deal with flying into space? Space tourism is about as interesting as sitting in your cubicle with added nausea to keep you on your toes.

    The goal ought to be a real destination, the Moon, Mars, some asteroid, but without government money, that isn't going to happen.

    So the next best thing is to make a space "plane" that can transport passengers from New York to Sydney in less than an hour. NASA had plans for something like that (someone can provide a link, I'm sure), but scrapped it in favor of Bush's latest drive to get to Mars (or the moon, I forget).

    Who wants to sit on a thousand pounds of explosives and not go anywhere? Space flight ought to be seen as a means to an end, not the end itself.

    1. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What is the big deal with flying into space? Space tourism is about as interesting as sitting in your cubicle with added nausea to keep you on your toes.

      ... or sitting in a sleigh?

      I suppose I can't argue with you, Dancin Santa.

    2. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Read the x prize news...

      http://www.xprizenews.org/index2.php

      Daily updates... this is a private race.. as no others.. last year it started and now many people joined; Paul Allen (co founder microsoft with bill gates), Elon Musk (Ebay), Jeff Bezos (amazon), John Carmack (ID software) etc etc..

      This is a race... with getting "commercial" space open.. and not just some government "propaganda" or showing what they can do.

    3. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Obviously the sleigh is a utilitarian vehicle. And as far as we know, it's only used one day out of the year, and on that day it gets a lot of miles put on it hauling toys and coal for all the boys and girls.

    4. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by William_Lee · · Score: 5, Insightful

      An industry that doesn't even exist commercially yet has to start out somewhere.

      With this attitude, the Wright Brothers may not have bothered to get off the ground for the short time/distance/altitude that they did at Kitty Hawk.

      Suborbital flights have the possibility of leading into full blown orbital visits to an orbiting hotel, which could lead into commercialization of the Moon, Mars, and eventually the outer solar system. These goals are definitely viable and achievable without government funding if entrepreneurs can find a way to make them work.

      Suborbital flight has a novelty factor, cache, and is the first baby step towards breaking free of this mess we call Earth.

    5. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by CosmeticLobotamy · · Score: 1

      I partly agree, but there's people that pay money to go up a fraction of that distance under big bags of hot air, so if people want to sell this, I'm sure a bunch of people would be happy to buy it. And I'm reasonably sure it would get you laid if you took your date on that ride.

    6. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by dreamchaser · · Score: 1

      One must learn to walk before one learns to run. The lack of patience that your post reveals is part of the endemic problem of modern society. Everyone wants instant gratification. To wax cliche one more time, Rome wasn't built in a day.

    7. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exploration of the New World was almost entirely at the expense of various governments. Only in some cases (such as Pennsylvania) were private parties the primary source of exploration money.

      That government-funded exploration led to the development of colonies and eventually cities.

      The Wright brothers were working on a means to travel from one city to another.

      The X-Prize sets the goal as spaceflight itself. Even if there were a "space hotel", who would fund it? Who would staff it? These kinds of things really need to grow organically, and the only party that can truly act in an enlightened, yet neutral, manner is government. Private business cannot, and without huge incentives, will not develop the kind of destinations that you and I are describing.

    8. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by dubious9 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What is the big deal with flying into space? Space tourism is about as interesting as sitting in your cubicle with added nausea to keep you on your toes.

      Millioniares are lining up around the block to sing up for just a venture. And that's totally a surprise right? Nobody had already paid to go (or tried) to, say, the ISS or Mir right? Right. People *are* willing to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to go into space. Some have already paid millions. Hell, I want to go. There is a market. You don't want to go to space? Hand in your geek card.

      but without government money, that isn't going to happen.

      As others have already pointed out, this is an entirely private venture, and as the technology gets cheaper and more accessible, the stars will be the limit. If you wanted to go to mars today, it would take a govn't. In 50 years, it's entirely possible to be privately funded, and that's what they're shooting for.

      So the next best thing is to make a space "plane" that can transport passengers from New York to Sydney in less than an hour.

      I suppose you haven't heard about the brand new venture, Virgin Galatic. What do you think they will do?

      Who wants to sit on a thousand pounds of explosives and not go anywhere? Space flight ought to be seen as a means to an end, not the end itself.

      Millions of people are intoxicated with the dream of venturing into space. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean it's not there. Ask some 8 year olds what they want to be. How many say astronauts?

      --
      Why, o why must the sky fall when I've learned to fly?
    9. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by NanoGator · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "What is the big deal with flying into space? Space tourism is about as interesting as sitting in your cubicle with added nausea to keep you on your toes."

      Has anybody ever noticed that the karma system has sucked the imagination out of some people?

      --
      "Derp de derp."
    10. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by bobcave · · Score: 1

      Oh, its got CACHE baby! Its got CACHE up the yin yang.


      --
      There is no such thing as 'chocohol' or 'workahol'.
    11. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Too many negative mods make Jack unable to post. So the key here is to write something that seems insightful and interesting, but leave enough hooks in to catch the fish.

      It's evolution in action. A change in the Slashdot moderation/karma environment has brought about an unexpected adaptation.

    12. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by mirko · · Score: 1

      Who wants to sit on a thousand pounds of explosives and not go anywhere?

      (Rich and )Romantic fellows who'd truely enjoy an honeymoon closer then ever to the real thing.

      --
      Trolling using another account since 2005.
    13. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Reality+Master+101 · · Score: 1
      Millioniares are lining up around the block to sing up for just a venture.

      Millionaires are lining up for something with nobody to tell them that it's actually boring, and not real space travel.

      Let's see what happens when ships are actually flying, and people come back saying, "Yeah, it was kind of cool, but way too short. I think I'll wait for them to get to orbit when we can stay awhile."

      --
      Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
    14. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by peragrin · · Score: 3, Insightful

      >>Private business cannot, and without huge incentives, will not develop the kind of destinations that you and I are describing.

      Private businesses are the one who founded the USA. it was refugees using private merchant vessels that created Plymouth. Jamesville, though had the honour of the kings blessing.

      The expansion west. Sure the goverment sold land cheap as an incentive. but that's about all the goverment did. WE have the tech to build a resort in space. Sure the first ones might only hold a cuople of dozen guests and a handful of employees. But you have to start somewhere.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    15. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Rei · · Score: 1

      > People *are* willing to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to go into space.

      Unfortunately, to get to *orbit* would only cost you "hundreds of thousands" if you and all of your food/water/air/supplies combined weighed tens of kilograms. A couple hundred thousand dollars only buys you a couple minutes of zero-g joyride on the aerial equivalent of a rocket sled.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    16. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 1
      Space tourism is about as interesting as sitting in your cubicle with added nausea to keep you on your toes.
      Is that how it was for you?
      --
      Drill baby drill - on Mars
    17. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by NanoGator · · Score: 1

      "Too many negative mods make Jack unable to post. So the key here is to write something that seems insightful and interesting, but leave enough hooks in to catch the fish."

      Yeah, I see what you're saying. Too bad 'insightful and interesting' usually means "Oh yeah, we really don't need it. We could all be perfectly happy as farmers!" It really makes me want to run around revoking people's nerd licenses.

      --
      "Derp de derp."
    18. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

      > With this attitude, the Wright Brothers may not have bothered to get off the ground

      How many bike shops do you see nowadays making commercial passenger jets?

      > Suborbital flights have the possibility of leading into full blown orbital visits

      Not from any direct descendant of SS1, I'll tell you that much. Heavy tank mass + low ISP engine design = Not Going Anywhere. They'll have to start from scratch with, as a bare minimum, a non-self-pressurized higher-ISP oxidizer. This in turn will not only require a radical redesign of the entire craft (everything except for the cockpit - but that will have to change for othre reasons, discussed later), but will involve the use of at least a single stage turbopump. Even the simplest of turbopumps are rather nasty beasts, with seals that can fail, whole additional engines and turbines just to spin the thing, stringent materials requirements, etc. However, even if he used LOX (which would require dealing with all of the risks and costs associated with working with cryogenics), I'd be surprised if a simple single stage turbopump plus polybut would get better than, say, 320 ISP and a rather weak thrust. You'd realistically only get to orbit with a payload on that kind craft with multiple stages, and even then your payload fraction will be really awful. You generally want at least a LOX/Kerosene level of performance to compete.

      Then there's the materials factor. A fiber vehicle just won't cut it (yet, that's where Rutan's experience lies). It doesn't come even close. You either need a good hot frame (titanium plus leading edge shielding plus internal component insulation, for example) or cold frame (aluminum-lithium or other good aluminum alloy plus an extensive TPS that a company like scaled couldn't dream of making on their own - I doubt they could shield a hot frame well enough on their own) design. The higher operating temperature of the engine plus using a better oxidizer will mean a lot more corrosion, requiring a lot more complex and expensive engine maintenance (a common killer for reusable craft). The cockpit is completely off for reentry; those windows are nice for suborbital, but they'd be serious weak points on *real* space travel.

      Then there's the general issues with real orbital flight. You have to handle *everything* needed to keep people alive for long periods; even developing a toilet that will work in space (and all of the associated infrastructure to run it) is no easy task. SS1's hydraulic controls suddenly become serious liabilities: in space, your craft cools and heats in dramatic cycles depending on whether you're exposed to the sun. Hydraulic lines, tanks, and actuators all require an extensive system of heaters, sensors, and sometimes cooling. Maintenance of this system on reusable craft, like the shuttle, is very expensive. Air quality maintainence becomes a lot more complex - and if you want to be truly safe, you're going to need to do spectral or other analysis on the air to determine atmospheric composition percentages. They'll need changable CO2 scrubbers, nitrogen and oxygen balance, etc. Temperature regulation in the cabin can get complex, since you can't just "run an air conditioner" or whatnot to cool down. If you want a direct heat pump, you need a very good radiatior outside the craft; this generally isn't realistic. Consequently, heat regulation is generally done by using water or cryogenic fuel in a closed loop; any cryogenic boiloff then needs to be vented. Naturally batteries are insufficient for how long you're in orbit; you need fuel cells or generators designed to operate in the hostile environment of space. Etc.

      Then there's problems with the "carrier" method of launch. Unless they get some serious ISP improvements, the size of the White Knight would scale beyond any realistic level. Unless they plan to launch from a Cossack (the Buran Shuttle's carrier, and largest airplane ever built) in order to simply take a few people to orbit, they *have* to get some serious ISP improvements or switch to ground launch.

      I could keep going with the issues, but I think you get the idea: Orbital and suborbital spaceflight aren't even remotely the same sort of beast.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    19. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by dasdrewid · · Score: 0, Troll

      I hate people who think like this. "We fucked up Earth, let's go somewhere else now." NO!

      Maybe if we put as much time, energy, and MONEY into fixing the Earth, cleaning it up, finding more environmentally friendly solutions for things from energy to food packaging, then we might actually could stay here for a while longer. And enjoy it. When you trash your room after a party, do you just move out? No. You clean it up. Let's try doing that before we think about colonizing a new planet or two.

      --
      No trespassing. Violators will be shot. Survivors will be shot again.
    20. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by KSobby · · Score: 1

      Wow, you're a bright ray of sunshine :) This is just one of the small steps necessary to reaching your destinations listed. Because of the structure of our economy, industry, legal and governmental entities throughout the world these small steps need to be taken. The age of true exploration is over until the world suddenly discovers the concept of altruism. This is the most movement we've seen since the 60's, so instead of bashing it let's embrace it and nurture it as much as possible. One day we'll get there but not without taking the little steps we currently are. Keep the faith. All it takes is one dreamer and amazingly enough we have several willing to stick their necks out at the same time.

      --
      "It's difficult to meditate on amphetamines." - Joe Walsh
    21. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by dillon_rinker · · Score: 1

      You make sense until I consider a human infant. Were I to follow your line of reasoning, they should be discoraged from rolling over, sitting up, or crawling, because these aren't remotely the same as walking. Not that I want to identify with the late Mr. Agnew, but you strike me as the sort of nattering nabob of negativism that he once railed against.

      Permit me to pick a few nits:

      Not from any direct descendant of SS1
      Nor from any direct descendant of the steam locomotive, but without machine tool expertise gained in commercial production of steam locomotives, there'd be no space flight. Nor from any direct descendant of Chinese fireworks rockets. Nor from any direct descendant of the German V2. You get my point, I hope...the most important thing to be gained in these experiments is expertise and experience that can be applied to other, larger projects.

      a company like scaled couldn't dream of making on their own
      NASA in the 1950s couldn't make ANYTHING on their own. It's a good thing they were aware of the capabilities of contractors. I'll bet you that Rutan couldn't build the chip fab necessary for producing avionics components. Somehow, I don't think that was an impediment.

      those windows are nice for suborbital
      PRECISELY. Keep reading...

      they'd be serious weak points on *real* space travel
      But serious strong points when it comes to selling suborbital space tourism. Not much point in a tourist flight when the tourists can't see out. I thinkIt's fairly common when an entrepeneur plans an ambitious commercial venture to do so in stages, letting the initial stages fund the later stages. Rutan's business plan involves building suborbital space tourism and letting that fund the R&D for orbital space tourism (there may be other interim steps).

      Besides, building windows into a wall is harder than building a wall without windows.

      You have to handle *everything* needed to keep people alive for long periods
      See previous point about space tourism. "Long" s a pretty generic term. I think for a 2-3 hour orbital flight, you could tell your passengers not to drink for a few hours before the flight, and to use the toilet before they left.

      Orbital and suborbital spaceflight aren't even remotely the same sort of beast.
      I hope you get my point: it doesn't matter. If we translate your essay back into the 1960s, it'd be going on about how the Mercury capsules were ENTIRELY unsuitable for moon landings.

    22. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Rei · · Score: 2, Informative

      > You make sense until I consider a human infant.

      Human infants don't require large teams of people and vast financial resources to walk. Sure, if Rutan had vast financial resources and huge teams of people, he could get to orbit. He doesn't. He has a small team and proportionally small resources. As a consequence, he achieved a proportionally small feat. I believe I've fairly demonstrated the scale of difference between suborbital and orbital, but I could go on if you'd like; if you think that one can go from the proportionally easy challenge of suborbital to the complex challenge of orbital without an equivalent scaleup in resources, I'd like to know how.

      > Nor from any direct descendant of the steam locomotive, but without
      > machine tool expertise gained in commercial production of steam locomotives,
      > there'd be no space flight.

      Rutan is not developing the figurative machine tools; NASA is. Rutan does not have any sort of effective R&D budget for that. Rutan is taking what is already known, and using the proportioanlly low-cost components (all that he can afford) and low-labor, undiversified manufacturing (all that he has the human resources for) to produce a low performance craft.

      > NASA in the 1950s couldn't make ANYTHING on their own.

      Amazing what a real R&D budget can do, isn't it? Rutan doesn't have one.

      Most of NASA's progress - the "machine tools", to reference your earlier analogy - was based on hundreds of papers representing large amounts of research released every year like you find here:

      http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1 &q =site%3Anasa.gov+novel&btnG=Google+Search

      > I'll bet you that Rutan couldn't build the chip fab necessary for
      > producing avionics components. Somehow, I don't think that was an impediment.

      Luckily for him, CPUs are cheap commodity components. Unluckily for him, high performance rocketry equipment is not. That's why he bought such a poorly performing engine from SpaceDev. It's not much more than a hollow tube partly filled with rubber with a de laval nozzle at one end (flaring to a bell) and an ignitor at the other. A ball valve and small actuator connect to a nitrous tank. That's all it is; that's why Rutan could afford it; and that's also why it will never scale.

      > But serious strong points when it comes to selling suborbital space tourism.

      Indeed they will be. I think Rutan has the low-suborbital market down for years to come (high suborbital (i.e., your flight lasts for hours instead of minutes)? Real rocket companies (still private, mind you) are probably more likely to win that slot.

      However, I'm not talking about suborbital; I'm talking about orbital (orbital spaceflight, not Orbital, the company - one of many private companies that make *real* rockets that most people don't know about).

      > I think for a 2-3 hour orbital flight

      Rutan will have some significant trouble scaling up even that far; an SS1-style craft certainly won't do it. A "real" rocket company like SpaceX or SeaLaunch or whatnot would be in a much better position to take a market like that with their existing infrastructure.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    23. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by dreamchaser · · Score: 1

      Except they won't say that. The few that have been up there say they'd do it again for any amount of money. Such short sightedness...why are you even browsing a geek site?

    24. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Reality+Master+101 · · Score: 1
      Who, exactly, has done a suborbital flight recently, other than Burt Rutan's pilot? Oh, right, no one.

      I want REAL, controlled, space travel, not shoot a tin can in an arc for four minutes. That means having orbital space hotels.

      I recognize that we need suborbital as a first step, but I think people are WAY overestimating the market for fake space travel.

      --
      Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
    25. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by secretsquirel · · Score: 0
      "Private businesses are the one who founded the USA. "

      Hmm, I always thought that it was the stone-cutters, err I mean...

    26. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 1

      What we need is a tin can that shoots out of your tin can to a waiting Space Taxi to take you to the Orbital Hotel.

      That sounds a lot more efficient than those stupid shuttles.

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    27. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Teancum · · Score: 1

      The current "going rate" for getting a seat on a Soyuz spacecraft is right now about $20 million USD. And that appears to be going up slightly due to interest by would-be space tourists, as well as the fact that NASA is now buying as many slots as they can until the shuttle program gets going again to keep the ISS up and running.

      In comparison, the Falcon V by SpaceX is going to have a price tag of about $16 million USD, which is going to be man-rated. Assuming that an amortized manned payload vehicle is going to cost about that same amount, for the sake of this discussion the total will be about $30 million USD for a manned spaceflight on the Falcon V. With the current discussion that it will be in a configuration of one pilot and four passengers, that ends up being about $8 million USD per passenger.

      I think that is a price point that people will be shooting for in the near-term for actual spaceflight to LEO. I don't know what increase in space tourism will result when the cost is lowered by only $10 million, but the key here is that neither NASA nor the Russian government will be able to turn down passengers in this situation.

      BTW, $10 million is a figure that is within reason for lottery systems to get a chance to fly in space, as well as for major promotional advertising campaigns. Or four minutes of commercial advertising with the Super Bowl. This is a bit high, but not unreasonbly so, for a corporate research budget, especially if coupled with private space stations that don't have to go through NASA scrutiny and materials with processes that get patent protection.

      Mind you, this is for people to be able to get into LEO, not just sub-orbital flight. If Scaled Composites or Armadillo Aerospace can shave the $10 million per passenger per flight figure down even more, there is a huge group of people that could afford to go up for much less. The cost for traveling to the moon would be about double this cost. As Robert A. Heinlein put it, getting to Low-Earth Orbit is halfway to the rest of the solar system.

      Assuming huge economies of scale kick in so that a trip to the moon will cost roughly $1 million. That is the amount that an ordinary working person in a 1st world country makes in a lifetime, and the value of some rather ordinary homes in California. If you compared that to what people spent to pay for colonization efforts to the Americas in the 15th & 16th Centuries vs. what ordinary people could afford to pay to travel to the Americas back then, this is very comparable. All that is left for Lunar colonization to be self-sufficient is political will to allow it to happen. And once you have cities on the Moon it will be all but impossible to keep people away from Mars and the asteroids.

      This is not just the realm of multi-millionaires, and certainly well within the reach of billionaires just wanting to take an exotic vacation.

    28. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Teancum · · Score: 1

      Well, to start with Zero-G Corporation has been booked up so solid that they are raising their prices. And enough people have been up that even some regular /. posters have photos to show their experience.

      There will be considerable interest in suborbital flight, and if they get the bugs worked out so that it includes intercontintal flight as well (Los Angeles to Sydney or Auckland to London), there will be solid economic reasons to get booked on these flights besides being a raw thrill ride.

      I don't know what the exact numbers will be, but there was even interest in the Concorde in terms of rapid travel between cities. There were numerous problems with the operations of the Concorde, but it was not a lack of paying passengers. Far more it was just raw politics that has discontinued the service.

      BTW, I think real controlled space travel to LEO and beyond is much closer than you are suggesting. I would have to agree that there are people who are holding out for going into space and spending days there, not just a few minutes of weighlessness.

    29. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Reality+Master+101 · · Score: 1
      Well, to start with Zero-G Corporation has been booked up so solid that they are raising their prices. And enough people have been up that even some regular /. posters have photos to show their experience.

      Also note that Zero-G is 1/50th (if not 1/100th) the price, and doesn't claim to be space travel.

      There will be considerable interest in suborbital flight, and if they get the bugs worked out so that it includes intercontintal flight as well (Los Angeles to Sydney or Auckland to London), there will be solid economic reasons to get booked on these flights besides being a raw thrill ride.

      AFAIK, none of the suborbital companies are looking at intercontinental travel. There would be considerable problems in doing that. Regulation, cost, capacity, landing areas, air space... there's not much overlap in what they're doing if their goal is taking people into space.

      --
      Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
    30. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Teancum · · Score: 1

      While I will agree that none of the suborbital companies are currently looking at intercontinental travel, there is no mistaking that it isn't something being considered as a future area of expansion.

      I'll hit each objection in detail:

      Cost: Not really that much more that a simple up and down flight. All that really changes is the flight profile rather than any really new technical challenges, and you sacrifice a little bit of altitude for a horizontal vector to get you someplace else.

      Capacity: Pretty much the same "spaceships" as with pure up and down. For more distance you may need a larger fuel tank and an engine rated for a longer burn time, or a larger engine. Still, not significantly more so.

      Landing Areas: Again, not really that much different. Space Ship One is able to take-off and land on a conventional runway. With large bodies of water found around the world, a sea-borne landing would also be reasonably possible. Vertical landing like Armadillo Aerospace could also use existing airports.

      Air Space: This is interesting because international law does govern spaceflight slightly differently than air travel, so it would be interesting to see which would take precedence. Spaceflight allows you to ignore international boundaries in terms of passage, while air travel requires permission of the nation you are traveling over. Obviously when you are low enough in altitude for take-off and landing you would have to deal with more conventional air corridor clearance, which is done anyway even for straight up and down launches. Even NASA needs to get FAA clearance when it launches or lands any spacecraft, so again, this isn't anything new. And is totally identical to what would be needed for orbital spacecraft to launch and land. Indeed, ballistic trajectories would be easier to predict where it was going to land than would an orbital path where you could in theory land anywhere in the orbital inclination pattern you are traveling in.

      Regulation: This is indeed the hardest part of the whole thing. Intercontinental means that you would have to deal with multiple governments (unless you are talking New York City to Guam), and that would have to get permission from both governments in order for a flight to take place. While the U.S. Government is seriously considering what regulatory issues need to occur within U.S. boundaries, other countries like England or Australia havn't even worried about the issues yet or who would even be in charge. The will to allow it to happen at all is much more of an issue, like the lack of willingness to have airports in the USA to be able to land the Concorde. There were only a couple of airports in the USA where the Concorde could land in non-emergency conditions.

      Basically, the current hurdle to be crossed is simply getting the spaceship to go up, and it does simplify that task by having only one place and set of regulations to worry about. Once they are successful and have demonstrated a series of flights without incident is the notion that intercontinental flights can even be entertained. And even then with working spacecraft it is much easier to convince a government to allow flights to occur than if it is still in an experimental stage.

      This is no different than many of the issues that faced early aircraft builders, and for many of the same reasons.

      God forbid if an American spacecraft by mistake ever had to crash-land in North Korea, but it is still something that does have to be at least thought of, and is no different between sub-orbital and orbital spacecraft.

    31. Re:Space: A whole lotta nuthin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      OK, I think you missed the grandparent's point. Allow me to detail it for you:

      everybody who is somebody now had to start somewhere.

      You seem to repeatedly say how they shouldn't bother because they couldn't possibly succeed. Tough shit, buddy. They're trying, with or without your approval.

      There were probably whiners like you, back in the days of the introduction of the first air transport services.

      There's a saying that springs to my mind. It goes along the line of "Would those who can't shut up and let those who can, do?"

      Shut up. Others are busy doing.

  7. Federation by Prince+Vegeta+SSJ4 · · Score: 1

    Trade Federation?

  8. Lets Control Space! by visualight · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They haven't even gotten there yet and they're already looking for reasons to control who goes there and how. Safety is the given reason but it will take a lot to convince me that setting themselves up as "recognized" experts/authority figures isn't the true motivation. That's a bankable position to be in.

    "We're in! Let's close the door behind us"

    --
    Samsung took back my unlocked bootloader because Google wants me to rent movies. They're both evil.
    1. Re:Lets Control Space! by xstonedogx · · Score: 3, Insightful

      To boldly go where no one has gone before... er, as long as we can do it at a profit and can't be sued.

      I think potential lawsuits are an important motivating factor. If they have accepted safety standards and follow those standards, they limit their liability.

    2. Re:Lets Control Space! by arodland · · Score: 1

      Right, because you're going to see a lot of interest by groups looking to do space transportation at a loss, knowing that they'll be liable for everything that happens, even though space is dangerous, they took every reasonable precaution, and the passengers were aware of the risks. That would go over real well. They appear to actually be trying to come up with some standards voluntarily, instead of waiting to be forced to, and in a sane world that would be considered a good thing. And if you don't trust them on it, you have the same choice you always had -- don't go to space.

    3. Re:Lets Control Space! by serutan · · Score: 1

      When it comes to regulation, the more proactive you are in the private sector the better. Ask the United Federation of Broadcasters.

    4. Re:Lets Control Space! by BiggerBoat · · Score: 1

      It's really nothing so nefarious. By banding together as a federation, they're hoping they'll have some clout in helping the government draft that regulations that they'll have to abide by. Because if they don't, those regulations will not get written by NASA, as someone else seemed to imply, but by FAA bureaucrats who, while well-intentioned, might regulate this emerging industry into extinction.

      All this federation wants to do is have some input into the regulations they'll have to abide by. Yes it's in their self-interest, but I also think it's going to help the situation because now the FAA folks will have direct input from a group that's actually trying to do the things being regulated.

  9. Rolling in riches... by Avyakata · · Score: 3, Funny

    I can see a nice business here.
    The catch line would be something like, "For those with nothing left to buy on Earth..."

  10. Oblig. joke by pjt33 · · Score: 1
    "For those with nothing left to buy on Earth..."
    What do you get someone who has anything? I suggest you get a rary, as you can at least be confident they won't throw it away.

    .

    .

    .

    It's a long way to tip a rary.

  11. This is just freakin great... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Now the damn government is going to regulate another thing. I'm sick and tired of all this regulation.

    1. Re:This is just freakin great... by odyrithm · · Score: 1

      No this is a bunch of entrepreneurs working with federal regulators. Regulations are there for your safety, or would you prefer we let anyone shot stuff upto orbit with the high chance of blowing up around us.

      --
      moo
    2. Re:This is just freakin great... by untree · · Score: 1

      I think that fears about safety and attempts to reduce risk are a huge part of the reason NASA is failing. Space exploration & innovation needs to have a high risk or nothing new and worthwhile will be attempted.

    3. Re:This is just freakin great... by odyrithm · · Score: 1

      True, but not at the expense of human life (READ: us on the ground).

      --
      moo
  12. I'm glad... by sailforsingapore · · Score: 1

    ...and this may be the only time in my life that I say this...That even though the government has completely dropped the ball on space, that corporations are going to be able to close the gap.

  13. For all of the Trekkies... by fencerf · · Score: 1

    Who will "do it" in space first?

    --
    Join me in iClod. (http://www.iclod.com/)
    1. Re:For all of the Trekkies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What makes you think "it" hasn't already been done?

    2. Re:For all of the Trekkies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0


      He was obviously addressing the "Trekkies," for any of whom doing "it" at all would be an accomplishment.

    3. Re:For all of the Trekkies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What, really do it? Not just fantasize about Jerry Ryan or something...?

      Perhaps a more reasonable question would have been "For all of the Trekkies, who will 'do it' first". No mention of space necessary - 'doing it' at all is enough of a long-shot for most Trekkies.

    4. Re:For all of the Trekkies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My understanding is that the russians have already had sex in space.

    5. Re:For all of the Trekkies... by Mattintosh · · Score: 1

      James Bond did it first. And remember, Nobody "does it" better.

      "I think he's attempting re-entry." - Q

  14. Wonderfully spooky by MrAndrews · · Score: 1, Interesting

    A friend of mine wrote up this massive history of the world starting in 2001 and going until 2100, covering society and technology as it evolves bit by bit. He did this in 2001, and so far he's had a stunningly good track record of hitting actual events within several months of reality. He got the actual month of Spaceship One winning the X-Prize, predicted the ESA would lose a probe to Mars... and he predicted something very similar to this announcement happening in early 2005 as well...

    I'm not saying he's Nostradamus or anything, but... um... if you live in France, now might be a good time to move abroad...

    1. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      And what exactly was the date that he expects to die alone on?

      Dont worry folks, I will be here all week.

    2. Re:Wonderfully spooky by MrAndrews · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      Dont worry folks, I will be here all week.

      's not what I hear...

    3. Re:Wonderfully spooky by sailforsingapore · · Score: 1

      can we view the predictions online somewhere?

    4. Re:Wonderfully spooky by MrAndrews · · Score: 1

      I would have to edit the content somewhat since it kinda served as the blueprint for this show we're making (it reads like a bunch of spoilers past a certain point), but yeah. I'll see what I can dig up...

    5. Re:Wonderfully spooky by mOoZik · · Score: 1

      It's pointless to say something like that and not offer more. Besides, he could be just like some people who predict stuff, in that he is right on one count for every 100 that he misses.

    6. Re:Wonderfully spooky by MrAndrews · · Score: 1

      Hmm. I should take note of this: three days of waiting on clients, and all it takes to get them to reply to me is to publicly propose to undertake a fun project unrelated to money...

      So instead of... the full version which I'd have to re-assemble out of a few dozen wiki entries, howzabout I send you to my mangled prosed-up version instead? It stops around 2030 and doesn't cover the issue at hand directly, but it's still fun.

      Sorry... the almighty buck beckons...

    7. Re:Wonderfully spooky by untree · · Score: 1

      This friend of yours should publish his story online... if it (or he) really exists, that is.

    8. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Dekks · · Score: 1

      Non of this predictions are startling or unexpected, to the contrary, I'd be surprised if they DIDN'T happen, but that said it was a very interesting read, your friends got good writing talent, if this was made into a discovery/history "a look back at the 2000's" style fake history documentry then I'd probably watch it, which I assume is your intention.

    9. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      "In short, Space Hops are a very carefully calculated set of thruster burns that allow a ship to reach Geostationary orbit in such a way as to be able to cross great distances in a very short time."

      Um, no... that doesn't work. It takes the best part of a day to get to GEO.

      For instance, a flight from London to Tokyo clocks in at just under an hour (takeoff and landing included).

      Sure, that works no, problem. You just don't via GEO; oh yeah, and it costs about the same as going to orbit, since the launch vehicle needs about the same performance, baring about 30%.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    10. Re:Wonderfully spooky by c.emmertfoster · · Score: 1

      The first thing that occurs to me, is that the more short term a prediction, the more liable it is to be accurate.

      Also, this has nothing to do with the story. Go make a LiveJournal account for this kind of thing please.

      --
      We can neither love nor pity nor forgive. If you make a slip in handling us you die!
    11. Re:Wonderfully spooky by MrAndrews · · Score: 1

      Well I'll be a monkey's uncle. Indeed you're right. I must've read that a hundred times but never processed what it was saying. Well then! Revision #244! Thanks for noticing that!

    12. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "open source" wins again!

    13. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Rei · · Score: 2, Informative

      Right, except for one thing: Suborbital flight, even doing half an orbit, is a heck of a lot cheaper and easier than orbital flight. 30% delta-V less equates to a huge reduction in required TPS, greatly reduced ISP (and thus reduced maintenance) or greatly improved payload fraction, etc. The difficulty of getting out of a big gravity well scales geometrically with the required delta-V, not linearly.

      Another bonus of suborbital is that you can do a lot more of the work on airbreathing engines - either tow-launch, carrier-launch, launch-and-midair-refuel (i.e., Black Horse, Black Colt, etc), or even surface launch on a craft with both jet and rocket engines.

      Lastly, since it's in a suborbital flight path for so short of a period of time, you don't have to worry so much about thermal or atmospheric regulation as you would for a true orbital craft that would be up there for days. This could be an especially big advantage for simplifying hydraulics (although I'd like to see spacecraft move away from hydraulics anyways... ;) ).

      Lastly, you get much better economies of scale. All in all, I'd expect travel on a suborbital liner to cost at most 1/20th as much per kg if built properly, and probably much less. You might even be able to go under 100$/kg if you got enough passengers. No matter what, though, probably way too expensive for ordinary commuter flights :P It probably could fill a niche industry - a combination of space tourism with Earth tourism.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    14. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      Right, except for one thing: Suborbital flight, even doing half an orbit, is a heck of a lot cheaper and easier than orbital flight. 30% delta-V less equates to a huge reduction in required TPS, greatly reduced ISP (and thus reduced maintenance) or greatly improved payload fraction, etc. The difficulty of getting out of a big gravity well scales geometrically with the required delta-V, not linearly.

      True, except- wrong. The delta-v isn't 30% less; the *payload* is 30% less to go intercontinental than to go to orbit.

      Lastly, since it's in a suborbital flight path for so short of a period of time, you don't have to worry so much about thermal or atmospheric regulation as you would for a true orbital craft that would be up there for days. This could be an especially big advantage for simplifying hydraulics (although I'd like to see spacecraft move away from hydraulics anyways... ;) ).

      Yeah, but you do have to worry about reentry- the velocity is pretty much orbital speed.

      Lastly,

      You mean it this time?

      you get much better economies of scale. All in all, I'd expect travel on a suborbital liner to cost at most 1/20th as much per kg if built properly, and probably much less. You might even be able to go under 100$/kg if you got enough passengers. No matter what, though, probably way too expensive for ordinary commuter flights :P It probably could fill a niche industry - a combination of space tourism with Earth tourism.

      The rocket fuel is still expensive though. Maybe $50/kg of payload if you use hydrocarbon fuel. So you probably need to triple that- giving a ticket price of maybe $15,000. Looking expensive. And for the foreseeable future- dangerous.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    15. Re:Wonderfully spooky by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      The rocket fuel is still expensive though. Maybe $50/kg of payload if you use hydrocarbon fuel. So you probably need to triple that- giving a ticket price of maybe $15,000. Looking expensive.

      In the year 2000, a round-trip ticket for a hop across the Atlantic on the Concorde cost $8,148.

    16. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Rei · · Score: 1

      Where on earth are you getting your number from for 30% less payload? -30% delta-V sounds about right (probably even more difference if anything; I'd have to check my rocket simulator), but certainly not payload. Such a suborbital craft would only be going up to around 150 km with a speed somewhere between 6 and 7 km/s, compared to 300-400km alt and almost 8km/s for LEO.

      Besides, the amount of payload you'd get in comparison to orbital would be dependant on your ISP; if you're using a high ISP engine (say, LOX/LH), there would be a less significant payload difference than a low ISP engine (say, LOX/Kerosene). With a 30% Delta-V difference, that would translate to something like a 3 to 4-fold increase in non-propellant mass for a LOX/LH rocket (which would typically be something like an 8-12fold increase in payload), while for a kerosene rocket, it'd be many times better.

      > Velocity is pretty much orbital speed

      Velocity that you need to burn off is linearly proportional to the Delta-V. You need to burn off all of the energy that you gained. However, two benefits arise that make the gain a lot more than just a 30% TPS reduction:

      1) Heating is proportional to velocity squared, not velocity. That means you're only getting half of the heating.

      2) Metals weaken asymptotically as they get hotter. For a given metal, you may find that the reduction of strength that took 700 degrees to accomplish gets repeated again in just another 150 degrees, and then again in another 40, and soforth. Consequently, your options become a *lot* easier when dealing with lower temperatures.

      > The rocket fuel is still expensive though

      Not even remotely. Fuel for rockets is incredibly cheap compared to everything else involved. Kerosene will cost you perhaps 30 cents a kilogram in bulk; LOX will cost you perhaps 5 cents per kilogram (you just refrigerate it out of the air, so the only cost is refrigeration). And, the cheap stuff - LOX - is used a lot more than the kerosene. All in all, it's uber-cheap. Even with a typical 20:1 payload fraction for kerosene rockets, it only costs a few dollars worth of fuel per kilogram of payload to orbit.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    17. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      Yeah, but even then this is $15,000 one-way; and I wouldn't like to bet you could even hit that price. And even if you could, you probably wouldn't. You'd probably up the price by 30% and go for orbit instead, because there's less competition from subsonic launchers- the same problem that killed Concorde.

      You can always return them from orbit back to Tokyo, and still beat the airflight.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    18. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      Where on earth are you getting your number from for 30% less payload? -30% delta-V sounds about right (probably even more difference if anything; I'd have to check my rocket simulator)

      Gary Hudson gave it as a rule of thumb on USENET a year or two back IRC. It's also born out with experience of using *my* rocket simulator.

      Even with a typical 20:1 payload fraction for kerosene rockets

      Really? Name one with a 5% payload fraction. Orbital fraction maybe, but *not* payload. For seat price, you want payload fraction, including customer, seat, lifesupport etc. etc. Actually $15000 is probably low, it assumes only 100kg per person.

      Actually orbital rockets typically have a 1-2% payload fraction. Divide that by 0.7 and that's roughly the London-tokyo payload.

      I have priced LOX and kero in the past, and I'm comfortable with $50/kg of payload. You might be able to go somewhat lower if you manage to get a cheap supplier of LOX. The kero- if you use aviation fuel- is fairly easy to price up. I've optimistically multiplied the fuel price by only 3 to get the price. Probably 5-10 is more realistic initially.

      Not even remotely. Fuel for rockets is incredibly cheap compared to everything else involved.

      Yup. Compared to everything else that is currently involved.

      Kerosene will cost you perhaps 30 cents a kilogram in bulk; LOX will cost you perhaps 5 cents per kilogram (you just refrigerate it out of the air, so the only cost is refrigeration).

      Yeah, I priced that up too. It actually takes quite a bit of electricity to make LOX; and the electricity is not cost free.

      1) Heating is proportional to velocity squared, not velocity. That means you're only getting half of the heating.

      You're not listening. The delta-v to get to Tokyo is pretty close to the delta-v to get to orbit. It's not 30% less; maybe 10% less or something. You'd get nearly the same heating.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    19. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      Actually I didn't bother to read your article carefully:

      Kerosene will cost you perhaps 30 cents a kilogram in bulk;

      In your dreams. Aviation fuel is over a dollar. Where you planning to get this magic cheap kero from then?

      LOX will cost you perhaps 5 cents per kilogram

      Last time I checked it was more like 40c a kg if you have your own plant. It's actually probably cheaper if you haven't got your own plant- the big boys wring the neck of the process to save electricity.

      Do you have a reference to a 5c LOX price?

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    20. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Rei · · Score: 1

      > Gary Hudson gave it as a rule of thumb on USENET a year or two back IRC.

      Well, then he was eiter wrong, or using way too high of an orbit. Do the math; there's almost 2 km/s difference in delta-V between LEO and suborbital (the precise amount depending on which LEO and suborbital orbits you use for comparison), just assuming that your suborbital orbit is going at a full "orbital" velocity initially in its flight (which it probably won't be; it depends on the optimal trajectory for a particular route).

      Lets compare 350k LEO and 140k suborbital. Potential energy difference (assuming same velocity - orbital velocity is higher, but we won't be going as high as orbital vel) is m*9.8*(350k-150k)=m*1.96 MJ. E=1/2 mv^2=m*1.96 MJ; v^2=3.92 MJ; v=1.979 km/s energy equivalent.

      Typical energy to LEO is around 9.5 km/s. So, we're looking at around 21% less energy, just assuming that we're going the same velocity that the LEO craft would be going (which we probably won't). You might object to 350k altitude for the LEO comparison (a little lower than ISS, but still a high LEO); on the other hand, I was being too kind with 150k for suborbital as well; my simulator shows 110k at orbital velocity as being plenty with a drag coef of 0.25 with a reasonable amount of lift; peaking at 115k or 120k at a slower velocity should probably be more optimal.

      > Really? Name one with a 5% payload fraction. Orbital fraction maybe, but *not* payload.

      That's what I get for not proofreading- I meant to say mass fraction. And actually, checking over, the orbital fraction is typically a bit better than that (modern kerosene rockets like the Zenit 2 get over 10%, but older ones generally aren't nearly as good).

      > Actually orbital rockets typically have a 1-2% payload fraction.

      Kerosene rockets do (sometimes less than 1%). LOX/LH are generally better, though.

      > Yeah, I priced that up too. It actually takes quite a bit of electricity
      > to make LOX; and the electricity is not cost free.

      As I'm sure you know, however, LOX still comes out incredibly cheap per kg. If you're not familiar with this, visit astronautix.com some time :)

      > You're not listening.

      Straw man. I am listening; we're *disagreeing* about the number; I heard you, and stated my objection.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    21. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Rei · · Score: 1

      Over a dollar per *kilogram*? You're kidding, right? it's 0.81 g/cc -> 3.33 kg/gallon. Even if you meant only "1 dollar per kilogram", that'd be 3.33$/gallon. There's no way that kerosene costs that much. According to Astronautix, NASA was paying 20c/kg for kerosene in the 80s, and NASA tends to pay a premium for fuel. I've seen modern prices quoted ranging from 25-50 cents per kilogram for rocket-grade kerosene. Checking up, the LOX price I stated from memory was, however outdated; NASA was paying that in the early 60s, and while NASA pays a premium, inflation will still have significantly scaled that up since then. According to astronautix, they were paying 8c/kg by the 80s, which means they're probably playing about 25c/kg nowadays and the average person could probably produce it in bulk for about 15-20c/kg.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    22. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      Lets compare 350k LEO and 140k suborbital. Potential energy difference (assuming same velocity - orbital velocity is higher, but we won't be going as high as orbital vel) is m*9.8*(350k-150k)=m*1.96 MJ. E=1/2 mv^2=m*1.96 MJ; v^2=3.92 MJ; v=1.979 km/s energy equivalent.

      That's not how it works. LEO is more typically quoted at 180km high anyway; and you'd have to go pretty much that high or higher to get to Tokyo anyway.

      No, look. Ignoring the ascent air resistance (which is the same for orbital/suborbital anyway pretty much), as soon as you leave the atmosphere, you are in orbit right? I mean, the orbit may intersect the ground(!), but you are technically in orbit.

      Now, to go long distances you need perigee to not be too far below ground level, otherwise you will hit the ground almost immediately.

      So perigee has to be close to ground level, and apogee has to be above 100km. So, right away you are describing an orbit that is 98% of the way to being a stable orbit.

      I mean, what's a hundred kilometers out of 6200km (the radius of the earth). Right?

      If you don't believe me, do the *real* math. As a kick-off check out the vis-visa equation and other equations on that site.

      Calculate the delta-v to reach an orbit with apogee at 100km and perigee at 0km. Then add on 2km/s to deal with gravity and atmospheric losses during ascent. That will give you the delta-v for going about 1/4-1/2 of the way around the world.

      > Gary Hudson gave it as a rule of thumb on USENET a year or two back IRC.

      Well, then he was eiter wrong, or using way too high of an orbit.

      Gary Hudson is a leading rocket engineer that has worked on numerous launch vehicles, including an ICBM IRC (which *are* suborbital delivery systems if you bother to think about it). If he says it's 30% reduction in payload; that's what it is. Period.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    23. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Rei · · Score: 1

      > That's not how it works

      Energy is energy. Higher orbits have greater potential energy. That's why you have to burn more fuel to get to GEO ;)

      > LEO is more typically quoted at 180km high anyway

      You're kidding, right? LEO is a range; the minimum is usually cited at 180-185km, while the max is typically 400-500km. But believe me, at 180km, you won't be up for very long at all.

      > as soon as you leave the atmosphere, you are in orbit right?

      Nope. Apart from the fact that there is no "leave the atmosphere" point, you need almost 8 km/s velocity to be in orbit. It's not orbit if you're not going to make an orbit; it's suborbital. This may be nitpicking, though, so I'll drop it. :)

      > 98% of the way to being a stable orbit

      Not at all - not even close. A stable orbit can never pass through the atmosphere at a dense point.

      > I mean, what's a hundred kilometers out of 6200km

      200km difference is more realistic for "normal" LEO orbits vs suborbital around the world (you'd never dream of putting a satellite at 180km - stationkeeping would be crazy - that's why we have ISS so high up). And it's not a comparison of 6200+Suborbital vs. 6200+LEO - it's a comparison of Suborbital vs LEO. We already have the gravitational potential energy for the first 6200 km (although not the kinetic energy - you have to get that no matter what when you launch).

      > do the *real* math

      What do you think I was doing? From the gravitational potential energy calculation linked from the page you supplied and included in the equation on your page: U=-GMm/r. G=6.672e-11; M=5.97e24; r=6.3781e6+orbital height. Total 150km energy=~-61MJ*m; 350km=~-59MJ*m. Gee, whatdya know, its the *Same Bloody Difference* in gravitational potential energy that I got in my last post. ~2 MJ, which is almost 2km/s delta-V difference, which is about a 20%, which is 2/3 the reentry heating, which is probably something like a 5fold difference in TPS price and maintenance the way that tensile strengths decrease at high temperatures.

      And you know what? This is really way overoptimistic. Craft like the shuttle have to be able to handle orbits higher than 350km. This craft would be flying lower than 150km - 110km by my calculations, or if you did a slower arc, probably 115-120km. This craft would be notably less dense than the shuttle, which makes reentry a lot easier as well. And we haven't covered the fact that you can get a larger % of your delta-V from airbreathers if you're only going suborbital.

      > If he says it's a 30% reduction in payload ... he'd be wrong, PERIOD, because at a bare minimum your payload fraction compared to your mass fraction varies *greatly* depending on your ISP. I don't care who he is; if Steven Hawkings said that iron had a lower number of protons than helium, he'd still be wrong.

      You know what I'm betting? I'm betting he's not wrong; I'm betting that you simply misread him or took him out of context.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
    24. Re:Wonderfully spooky by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      What do you think I was doing?

      It looks a lot like what you are doing is assuming that most of the energy of an orbit is potential energy. When in fact ~93% it is kinetic energy- sideways.

      In other words: to get to orbit- you have to go sideways *fast*- really, really, really fast. You go up a little bit, but you go sideways a whole bunch.

      And in case you're wondering: yes, you do have to go sideways really, really, really fast to go from London to Tokyo too. It's just that you arrange for the orbit to intersect the atmosphere so that you land in Japan. And that's the *optimum* ballistic trajectory to get from London to Tokyo. In fact, IRC, you usually actually go to a higher altitude to go suborbital than LEO.

      Oh yeah, check out this launcher, some of the versions have back-back comparisons of LEO and ICBM payload. http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/r29.htm

      I can explain the same thing in a dozen different ways, but I don't think you're listening at all, and you don't show any signs of being able to understand the whys/what and hows so I'm stopping right here.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    25. Re:Wonderfully spooky by Rei · · Score: 1

      > 93% it is kinetic energy - sideways

      Gravitational potential energy for, say, 350km: ~4MJ
      Kinetic energy: ~30 MJ
      Percent: 88%
      In short: Wrong again (what were you thinking giving a single number, when LEO constitutes a range?)

      > You have to go sideways *fast* - really, really, really fast

      I'm well aware of this; I've written my *own* rocket simulator previously, you know. You still spend a good portion of your total energy fighting the atmosphere early in the trip. Or, with airbreathers, taking advantage of it. :)

      > you do have to go sideways really, really, really fast to go from London to Tokyo, too.

      Not orbital velocity; an optimal trajectory runs a bit high and a bit slow. The exact optimal trajectory depends on your drag coeff; you want to go higher than a perfect ballistic trajectory to encounter less resistance.

      > you usually actually go to a higher altitude to go suborbital than LEO

      I'd love to see what numbers you used to determine that, and what "LEO" orbit you're using.

      > check out this launcher

      The requested URL /lvs/r29.html was not found on this server.

      > I can say the same thing a dozen different ways

      And apparently not listen to the person you're debating with while you're at it. Quite the skill you've got. I notice that you've dropped discussing potential energy; I take it you've cross-checked my numbers and realized that both formulae come out with the same numbers for low altitudes. Will you offer an apology?

      I've done energy calculations; I've simulated a trajectory... what more could I possibly do? You're not really taking part in this conversation, just asserting.

      --
      Dear Lord: One of your creatures may be hurt tonight. Please let it be the other creature.
  15. Non-Gov Spaceflight by boeserjavamann · · Score: 1

    i think it would be great if non-government companies could get a big chunk of the future of spaceflight. maybe the whole thing will be because of the money, but because of that, those companies will have to make spaceflights cheaper, so more people may enjoy a spaceflight in the near feature.

  16. "Martian Gothic" got it right. by JessLeah · · Score: 1

    The old Playstation game "Martian Gothic" told the tale of some early Mars bases in a near-future scenario...where said bases were created by a corporation and not NASA or the like. That sort of future is looking more and more likely.

  17. Terrorists! by Tjoppen · · Score: 1

    Think about the hype around someone hijacking a space ship and crashing it into a capitol city/landmark of their choise...

    - We have recieved reports that Mars is harbouring terrorists.

  18. Oh, Sure... by ackthpt · · Score: 1

    Oh, sure, they're all cute and fuzzy when their young ... what happens when their all grown up, big and successful and looking after their own special interests?

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    1. Re:Oh, Sure... by brainstyle · · Score: 1

      Uh... they'll get progressively crappier?

      --
      "Why can't everyone just be straight with me?"
      "Because we live in a bendy world, dear."
    2. Re:Oh, Sure... by ackthpt · · Score: 1
      Uh... they'll get progressively crappier?

      Exactly.

      "this sleek and shiny craft is the Mark I, this dinged and scratched one is the Mark II, this one with gaping holes and rust is the Mark III and this one infested with alien is the Mark AAAAGGGHHHH!!!!"

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  19. Just more lobbiests in Washington by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    A number of entrepreneurs in the nascent commercial space industry are establishing the Personal Spaceflight Federation, an industry group which will work with federal regulators to come up with standards to promote crew and passenger safety.


    Wow! That's great! It's good to see that they've shunned lobbiests.

    It isn't like these guys aren't here to craft laws to make themselves richer. Instead, they want to promote safety, just like the Cigarette industry!

  20. SpaceRaceNews posted a possible first concern.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    http://www.xprizenews.org/index.php?p=764

    Rep. James Oberstar [D-MN]) introduced a new bill:

    H.R. 656: To amend title 49, United States Code, to enhance the safety of the commercial human space flight..
    To amend title 49, United States Code, to enhance the safety of the commercial human space flight industry.

    You can track and check for latest updates related to this bill at:
    http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h109 -656

    This could be one of the first concerns for the leaders from the newly emerging Personal Spaceflight Industry that announced their intent to organize an industry federation to design and uphold the standards and processes necessary to ensure public safety and promote growth of the personal spaceflight industry.

  21. Russian's are way ahead by demachina · · Score: 5, Insightful

    " NASA is looking at commercial options for resupply of the International Space Station."

    I think the Russians are way ahead of NASA on both keeping the ISS going, and on the CEV.

    The Russians are going to be showing a full scale model of their Kliper reusable capsule at the Paris air show this June.

    This is their planned replacement for the venerable Soyuz. It will carry 6 astronauts or 700 kilos of cargo. The article sounds like they are a little cagey on the schedule, it just says a few years. I'll bet you they have a manned launch about 5 years sooner than the CEV.

    If they hang one of these on the ISS as an emergency vehicle they will enable bringing the ISS up to nearly its planned manning level, and might actually allow people to do research on the thing, instead of spending all their time maintaining as the 2-3 man crews have been doing.

    Kind of looks to me like Russia is planning to go it alone when the U.S. gives up on the ISS and the shuttle. The other source of friction is that since Russia is trading with Iran and the U.S. has embargoed Iran NASA is officially forbidden from having any financial relationship with the Russian Space agency. I wonder if they will have to paint a white line down the middle of the ISS and have a U.S. half and a Russian half :) Or more realisticly the Russians can just undock the modules they built and control from the NASA tidbits and let them burn up. Their modules are a full, self contained space station, a Mir2 if you will and they don't actually require the American parts.

    For comparison to Kliper, the CEV is going to have Lockheed and Boeing launched an unmanned, half baked prototype in 2008, pick a winner between the two and wont have a manned launch, probably just to LEO, before 2014 at the earliest.

    By contrast NASA went from a nearly standing start to putting a man on the moon in way less than 10 years in the '60's when it had never been done before. In summary, NASA, Boeing and Lockheed are today, officially pathetic. As nearly as I can tell the CEV, and the Bush Moon/Mars initiative is mostly just an excuse to pump money in to the pockets of Boeing and Lockheed and put the milestones that count so far out there it will be a miracle if they program isn't killed before they actually have to do anything serious for the subsidies.

    --
    @de_machina
    1. Re:Russian's are way ahead by Manhigh · · Score: 1

      When NASA gets the kind of funding it did during the 60's we'll see development of full programs in under 10 years. Even so, a suborbital demo flight of CEV in 3 years is a pretty quick schedule, considering the vehicle has to be extensible to bother LEO and deep space applications.

      --
      "Open the pod by doors, Hal" > "I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave" sudo "Open the pod bay doors, Hal" > alright
    2. Re:Russian's are way ahead by demachina · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Its not very aggressive considering its going to be a tin can that probably wont even be close to what a manned vehicle would require and its probably launching on existing boosters, variants of Titan, Delta or Atlas. Chances are they are going to be underpowered for doing much past LEO. They sure aren't a Saturn V or the kind of heavy lifter you could get out of the Shuttle stack if you throw away the Shuttle and replace it with a big cargo module.

      Me personally I'd like to see them just launch a shuttle external tank in to LEO and get it there half full of Hydrogen and Oxygen, hang a couple nozzles and a credit card swiper on it and turn it in to a gas station in space. Then put a simple, reusable space tug up there, a couple engines, two tanks and frame, that refuels in space and round trips to the moon and the L points on a weekly basis and NEVER reenters the atmosphere.

      The CEV is also not very aggressive considering it will be another 6 years before it does anything even remotely useful assuming it isn't axed before then. Whats wrong with that picture, 3+ years to first flight and 9+ until a flight that actually does something. It stinks.

      "When NASA gets the kind of funding it did during the 60's "

      If the Russian Space Agency gets the kind of funding NASA is getting today they will do some wonderful things. An obvious example is they have already settled on one design and are bending metal on a full scale mockup. Don't think Boeing or Lockheed are past the computer generated fantasy stage.

      Half of the money and time going in to the CEV flyoff is probably throw away unless they use parts of both designs which almost never happens.

      I hate to break it to you but you are NEVER going to throw enough money at anything to keep NASA, Boeing and Lockheed happy. The more money you throw the more they will devour. ISS, the B-2 and the F-22 have all proven then. In the Apollo era there were lots of idealists in the space business, now there are a lot of bureaucrats building empires, and contractors trying to pad their bottom lines.

      A lean budget probably ends up being faster and more efficient since it keeps the project from being a towering pile of bureaucracy and waste. Kelly Johnson and Burt Rutan both succeed by ruthlessly keeping the number of people working on the project to the essential minimum. Unfortunately Lockheed and Boeing will probably just produce and underfunded towering pile of bureaucracy, just based on track record.

      --
      @de_machina
    3. Re:Russian's are way ahead by fm6 · · Score: 1
      Kind of looks to me like Russia is planning to go it alone when the U.S. gives up on the ISS and the shuttle.
      "Go it alone," is kind of the wrong way to put it, since Russia is a minor partner in the ISS: they have a lot of space technology and experience, but they're too broke to do anything with it unless somebody else fits the bill.

      And who will that be? The U.S., of course. Our own manned space program is a total disaster, yet we're totally committed to a huge presence in space. Even if that's just the ISS, the Kliper will have a lot of American passengers. And even if you're skeptical of Bush's plans for Lunar and Martian exploration (I know I am) you have to wonder if the availability of cheap Russian space craft might push those projects closer to reality.

    4. Re:Russian's are way ahead by demachina · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Russia is a minor partner in the ISS"

      That's silly American self centeredness. You apparently glossed over the part in my previous post where I said the Russians have built enough modules in the ISS that if they were to undock them from the U.S. parts they would still have a fully functional space station. Without the Russian built modules the U.S. has nothing.

      They would have to go back to rockets for attitude control, since the gyro based system is U.S. built but they could live with that. There could be an ownership dispute over one of the Russian built modules, because NASA paid for it through Boeing but its a Russian design and Russian built.

      The other obvious thing you gloss over is that since the Columbia disaster the Russians have carried 100% of the burden, at their expense to change crews and resupply the station.

      Minor partner indeed. The only way you could cubbyhole them as minor is if you are counting the massive sums of money the U.S. has squandered on the ISS over the last 30 years, but that counts for nothing other than to prove how pathetic the U.S. manned space program and politics are.

      "yet we're totally committed to a huge presence in space"

      About 2010 when the shuttle is retired the U.S. will have NO manned presence in space unless its at the good will of the Russians. The U.S. will have no manned launch vehicle until the CEV in 2014 at the earliest. Committed indeed.

      --
      @de_machina
    5. Re:Russian's are way ahead by Teancum · · Score: 2, Interesting
      About 2010 when the shuttle is retired the U.S. will have NO manned presence in space unless its at the good will of the Russians. The U.S. will have no manned launch vehicle until the CEV in 2014 at the earliest. Committed indeed.


      You are assuming that the CEV will even be built. The U.S. Constitution absolutely guarentees that there will be two more Presidential administrations between now and then, possibly more, and requirements that Congress will have to do annual budgetary approval on the project simply add to the issues. That and the recent history NASA has shown toward developing new manned spaceflight vehicles would seem to indicate that the CEV is doomed to almost certain failure.

      The only glimmer of hope that it might succeed is indeed the fact that the Shuttles are being forced into retirement, and I don't see any movement in Congress to change that, particularly when even the strongest supporters of manned spaceflight are trying to kill the Shuttle program. Being without a manned space vehicle would essentially make NASA a museum caretaker, and an aviation research agency. I think you would find public support for NASA to drop almost completely if the manned spaceflight program were disbanded, and most people at NASA seem to realize that as well.

      I do support the development of the CEV at the moment, but there are competitive pressures put on NASA contractors now that have never been in the government space arena before. If the CEV starts to show the kinds of failures in management that the Shuttle program is [in]famous for, there are several other groups in private industry that might just be able to provide a cheaper alternative to getting crews up to the ISS and LEO in general. Five or six years from now (when the Shuttles get hopfully sent to the Smithsonian) it will be a lot more clear just who is a major contender in manned spaceflight and what launch options are going to be available. It would be ironic if NASA astronauts had to book a flight on Virgin Galactic to get to the ISS. I pray that NASA doesn't screw up that bad.
  22. Where's Paul Allen? by lbmouse · · Score: 1

    He seems to be missing from the group... "Sir" Richard Branson is also a no show.

  23. How about a $400 million prize? by G4from128k · · Score: 2, Interesting

    For the price of one shuttle launch, NASA could offer a very hefty, very inviting prize to private companies that can deliver a suitable payload to orbit and the ISS. NASA might offer some more modest sub-prizes for lesser accomplishments (e.g., delivering a small crew with no payload to ISS).

    --
    Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
    1. Re:How about a $400 million prize? by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      I think you're basically thinking of what NASA's Centennial Challenges Program is planning on doing. I remember reading that the 2006 NASA budget is dedicating $100-$200 million to the Centennial Challenges, which will hopefully increase in coming years.

  24. Fox guarding the Chicken coop by SuperBanana · · Score: 2, Insightful
    They haven't even gotten there yet and they're already looking for reasons to control who goes there and how. Safety is the given reason but it will take a lot to convince me that setting themselves up as "recognized" experts/authority figures isn't the true motivation.

    Ding ding ding.

    If this were Delta, American Airlines, and JetBlue, wouldn't we be screaming blue-bloody-murder that airlines can't be trusted to develop safety regs? What about chemical companies and chemical handling procedures? Corporations and financial reporting standards? Nightclubs and fire safety regs?

    There are hundreds if not thousands of examples where businesses (and entire industries) of all sizes willfully (and gleefully) ignore the public interest, safety, and so on.

    This seems like an excellent way to make sure there are space-company-friendly rules in place, by writing them before anyone else does and saying "well, ours are already written, and we're the experts!" Wrong. Much as I dislike NASA- they are the experts, they've been down the "safety" path before (including the pressure to go on with the show routine; do we honestly think things won't be WORSE with a corporation making that decision?) and they've been working with commercial travel(aka airlines) for a long, long time. They're certainly more qualified than John Carmack.

    1. Re:Fox guarding the Chicken coop by discontinuity · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There are hundreds if not thousands of examples where businesses (and entire industries) of all sizes willfully (and gleefully) ignore the public interest, safety, and so on.

      They only do this when they believe it to be in their (financial) interest. For the nascent commercial space industry, financial intrests are aligned with safety. Sure, some people will go up regardless the risks. But most people will wait it out until they feel more secure.

      I do conceed that they really only require the perception of safety. Thus, this organization could be just one big scam. Although this is possible, I believe that the initial pioneers in any field really are as interested in the long-term success of the field as they are of their own financial success (perhaps even more so). It's the second- and third- generation of commercial space companies that we want to look out for.

      This isn't to say that NASA involvement would be a bad idea...

    2. Re:Fox guarding the Chicken coop by bigpat · · Score: 1

      "Much as I dislike NASA- they are the experts, they've been down the "safety" path before"

      NASA just stops launching people into space everytime a shuttle blows up... no or fewer launches means less risk. I don't think that is the type of safety we want.

  25. That should be... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    United Federation of Planet.

    1. Re:That should be... by escher · · Score: 1

      For some reason this reminds me of "Highlander 2: Director's Cut".

      And I hated that movie.

      Thanks. Thanks a lot. :)

  26. Beam me up by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

    If Carmack can join, without a successful flight, where do I sign up? I'll boldly go!

    --

    --
    make install -not war

    1. Re:Beam me up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All you have to do is.. start developing something.. and start writing about it..
      http://www.xprizenews.org/index.php?cat=5 (armadillo aerospace).
      They may even give you, your own forum:
      http://www.xprizenews.org/forum/viewforum. php?f=23

      They list all potential teams, but you'll have to sound very convincing... and even make movies/pictures ;)

      It would be very funny to make a hoax with fake stuff!

    2. Re:Beam me up by Teancum · · Score: 1

      While Carmack may not have made a successful X-Prize flight up to 100 km, he certainly was one of the major contenters with actual working hardware. Indeed, I would call his efforts much more believeable than what I've seen so far from many of the other X-Prize teams, including DiVinci (which looks largely like a scam in progress IMHO).

      Carmack, Rutan, and Musk are certainly reasonable to group together as peers for a group like this, even though they are all following very different approaches to developing manned spacecraft. Of the three efforts (Armadillo, Scaled Composites, and SpaceX respectively), Carmack's is perhaps the most economical approach, although I think SpaceX is going to achieve manned orbital spaceflight first. The Falcon V is being designed from the beginning as a man-rated vehicle even though its business plan is successful if it only launches unmanned cargo. All three companies have a reasonable shot at getting LEO vehicles up and going in the next 20 years, and will likely be major players in the space tourism business. I'm sure that Boeing is also paying attention very closely.

  27. Answer by amightywind · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    No, John Carmack is a complete neophyte aerospace engineer-wannabe with money to waste. Why Burt Rutan would offer his coattails to these other clowns I'll never know.

    --
    an ill wind that blows no good
    1. Re:Answer by Cecil · · Score: 2, Informative

      Why Burt Rutan would offer his coattails to these other clowns I'll never know.

      Because Burt Rutan wasn't always recognized as an aerospace genius. Once upon a time not all that long ago, he was the one being called a clown. You have to start somewhere. Burt Rutan realizes this. He also realizes that competition is GOOD. For the industry, even for him. Without people snapping at his heels, he probably wouldn't have nearly as much motivation to push the envelope and come up with some of the amazing work he has done.

    2. Re:Answer by Luthair · · Score: 1

      Carmack has money and has an interesting engine design.

      Just because Rutan won the X-Prize doesn't necessarily mean his setup is the best for long term.

    3. Re:Answer by BiggerBoat · · Score: 1

      Why Burt Rutan would offer his coattails to these other clowns I'll never know.

      Actually, all you'd have to do is RTFAs to know. You'd find out that by actively working to establish safety guidelines along with the government, the federation is hoping to help keep the safety regulations meaningful and workable. Rutan does not want the government to mire his plans in misguided regulation, so he's joining other industry leaders in hopes of helping keep the regulations realistic. Simple.

  28. Thats great by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny


    as long as they only control their part of space i don't care

  29. Industry? by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    They make a couple successful flights and now it's an "industry"? Come on...

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    1. Re:Industry? by Gewis · · Score: 1

      Why, yes, it's been an industry for more than a decade. It's very small, but now growing. These things don't just pop out like monkeys from your butt. They have to be worked on, researched, developed, etc.

      The old Rotary-Rocket project split off into a few different groups, and there've been other companies working at it for a while. www.xcor.com www.masten-space.com are a couple I know pretty well (I watched the June Scaled Composites flight from XCor's hangar, just a few buildings down from Scaled, and one of the engineers at Masten Space is a good friend of mine). Anyway, if you'd like to find some good resources on the alt.space community, a GREAT place is www.hobbyspace.com .

  30. from the what-is-their-prime-directive? dept. by Scrameustache · · Score: 2, Funny

    Damn you, I wanted to be the first to make that joke! : )

    Maybe they aren't allowed to influence the cultures of the countries in which they crash?

    --

    You can't take the sky from me...

  31. Finally! by The+Fun+Guy · · Score: 1

    I've been waiting for four years to see how the Federation was formed. Now that the stupid Temporal Cold War or Lack of Original Plot Ideas War or whatever it was is finally over, the show is finally getting good.

    --
    The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them. - Mark Twain
  32. Is it good or is it whack? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What's John Carmack all about? Is it good or is it whack?

  33. Fucking Statists by Acy+James+Stapp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "Without government money, that isn't going to happen."

    What a load of crap. Spaceflight isn't something the government needs to be involved in except perhaps to regulate externalities. It's affordable to private industry, it's being developed in a mature market economy, and the potential rewards are sufficient to drive investement without any government intervention.

    It is imperative that we get an extra-terran human colony but the government is the wrong institution to do it. I will grant that government funding in the early days of the space program was crucial but it's time to let private industry take over.

    --
    -- Too lazy to get a lower UID.
  34. Safety Kills! by pintpusher · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I can't think of one single new industry (if you really wanna call it that -- how about "exploratory push"?) that was helped by creating safety measures before people pushed ahead. That's the whole problem with the space industry. We started concerned about saftey and then haven't really gone anywhere. Were the early trans-atlantic sailors concerned with safety? how about early pioneers of flight? automobile developers? nope nope nope. They were pushed by a drive to get something done and frankly lots of people got killed or injured, and that's tragic, but they did get something done. If you look at any major human developement the safety measures came much later, after the new technology or territory or whatever was well developed. Hell we didn't have seatbelts required in cars until the 70's(?), well after the auto was largely fully developed. Shipping is still plagued with mis-haps due to largely inadequate safety reg for commercial ship building.

    Now look at space exploration. We've only lost a handful of astronauts due to massive safety efforts from day one -- and that's great! meanwhile we've done little more than throw some rocks up in the sky and watch them fall back down. If we'd taken some real risks -- put some willing guys on the end of a bomb and chucked 'em out there and see what happens, then we'd probably be a lot farther along than we are today. True , we'd have lost a lot of people, but its sort of the price you pay to develop something.

    I would think that commercial exploitation would be opposed to early safety reg for just these reasons. Its generates more upfront cost, lowers your initial ROI and generally makes it a big PITA to get things done.

    that said, I'm not gonna sit on top of time bomb anytime soon... ;-)

    --
    man, I feel like mold.
    1. Re:Safety Kills! by bwy · · Score: 1

      Test pilots are a good example. Lots of them have died, but at a considerable gain. Look at the aircraft the world had even back in the 80's- some pretty high tech stuff. You don't get there by not taking risks. The question without an exact answer is "what is an acceptable risk?" Answer depends on who you ask, and when you ask them.

    2. Re:Safety Kills! by DerekLyons · · Score: 1
      We started concerned about saftey and then haven't really gone anywhere. Were the early trans-atlantic sailors concerned with safety? how about early pioneers of flight? automobile developers? nope nope nope.
      Actually the answer is Yes, Yes, Yes,

      If you are dead, you can't collect profits. If your airplanes crash and kill pilots and passengers, you go out of business. If your autos kill drivers, passengers, and bystanders, you go out of business.

      While their concerns certainly were not to the level prevalent today, pretending they didn't care at all is self-delusional nonsense.
    3. Re:Safety Kills! by pintpusher · · Score: 1

      Obviously I don't mean that they had NO regard for life or safety, just that it sometimes took a back seat to progress. And remember, especially in the early days of the european exploration of the seas, the people who made the money were back on shore. and maybe the officers of the ship. The work-a-day sailor who faced the toughest challenges, and had the highest mortality rates was working for a couple meals a day, a pint of rum, and a pittance to take home if you survived. The officers and the investors stood to gain the most and were the least likely to die. Granted if the whole ship went down, you certainly lost some money, but I think a lot of the people driving this exporation (usually royalty with deep pockets) expected losses, possibly heavy losses, but look at the long term gains!

      this is so far off topic now.

      my point though, is that sometimes it seems we spend SO much on safety concerns that we hamper our own progress more than help it. sort of a diminishing returns thing.

      --
      man, I feel like mold.
    4. Re:Safety Kills! by DerekLyons · · Score: 1
      Obviously I don't mean that they had NO regard for life or safety, just that it sometimes took a back seat to progress.
      No. It *never* took a back seat to progress. Ever. No ship ever left intending to never return. No early auto manufacturer shipped cars that would kill the operators/passengers. No pioneer of flight took off intending to die.

      Don't confuse a poor evaluation of risk with a disregard for safety, as they aren't the same thing.
    5. Re:Safety Kills! by pintpusher · · Score: 1

      No ship ever left intending to never return.


      Certainly no one set sail expecting to never return. However, I think it is reasonable that early mariners EXPECTED a certain amount of loss of life on a voyage. If you look at the deep redundancy in a ships roster, it is obvious that they expected this. Why else have multiple levels of "mates" as well as a large pool of general laborers on a ship? The actual number of men needed to effectively maneuver a vessel was much smaller than the number of men brought on a voyage. Hence the plethora of "make-work" chores like daily deck swabbing. Gotta keep those guys busy until someone dies and you need a back-up.

      No early auto manufacturer shipped cars that would kill the operators/passengers.

      You are taking my points well beyond my intention. No one shipped cars that were guaranteed to explode. That doesn't mean they didn't ship cars that were known to OCCASIONALLY explode and that the explosion was preventable, but not for the money they were willing to spend in development of a solution. The automotive world is rife with stories of automakers fighting to deny the dangers in their own vehicles. Pintos that explode (debatable i suppose). SUV's that roll too easily. Corvairs that impale their drivers. Its not hard to speculate, and believe, that early car makers knew certain aspects of their cars were dangerous, but choose to market the vehicle anyway. Frankly, part of the appeal of early cars was the "danger."

      We can go really far off topic and talk about other obvious and extreme examples of ignoring blatant safety measures: locked doors in sweatshops that catch fire, selling products that kill the consumer (tobacco!). Its a pretty long list. I'm not saying these are progress related examples, but they show that the business world, often the source of motivation for exploration and development, is sometimes all too willing to ignore safety concerns.

      We used to have a certain leap-before-you-look attitude. Build it, test it, if it ends up dangerous, then try and make it better. Meanwhile, keep building and using it until a better solution comes along. This is opposed to our current approach -- make it as utterly safe as possible, and if it never gets off the ground, so be it.

      I think the point I'm trying to make is that I fear our sometimes over-zealous approach to safety can stifle growth. I am not opposed to addressing safety early on in a project and it is the responsibility of product developers to take a thorough look at safety concerns. But regarding the original article: space travel is inherently dangerous. If we expect to eliminate that danger, we should not go into space. Early sea exploration was exceedingly dangerous. If mariners had attempted to eliminate all the dangers, they would never have gone. There are always risks, and we should strive to eliminate them, but we should simultaneously strive for progress as well.

      BTW, I ain't no historian and am merely expounding upon the fractured and misleading information accumulated in this grey mush stored in a can on top of my neck. ;-)

      Further, you'd never get ME in one of those death-traps !! :-)

      --
      man, I feel like mold.
  35. Michael Kelly by Theory+of+Everything · · Score: 1

    The wikipedia entry says "Michael Kelly" is a founding member, and links to this bibliography. That's some trick, him being a founding member, as the bibliography says he died in 1826....

    He must have flown his privately funded spacecraft too close to a time warp.

    1. Re:Michael Kelly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for the warning, I've corrected the entry in Wikipedia.

  36. You Mean . . . by StefanJ · · Score: 1

    . . . watch a rerun of Trek while the wonders of the universe flash past the windows?

  37. Call for the Space Elevator by Pedrito · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Frankly, I'm convinced the space elevator is the way of the future. It's clearly showing significant potential and even NASA has begun to take it seriously.

    If they'd spend more money on getting a space elevator built and less money on rockets, we'd be in much better shape.

    Let's face it, sticking people or anything else on top of a big firecracker is always going to be really dangerous and really expensive. The space elevator will be cheap (over the long haul) and very safe in comparison.

    Why don't we just concentrate on getting that built? Then all you need is little orbital ships that can ferry people and crews around. And since these orbital ships can either be ferried by the elevator or built in orbit from ferried components, you're talking a significantly safer way of dealing with space in almost every way.

    Yes, we have some advances to make to actually build it, but if we spent nearly as much money on researching the needed advances as we do on maintaining the space shuttle fleet, we'd probably have the research done pretty quickly.

    1. Re:Call for the Space Elevator by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      Well, it would be just my luck to get in the space elevator right after some joker pushes all the buttons so that it stops at EVERY floor!

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    2. Re:Call for the Space Elevator by jacksonj04 · · Score: 1

      Oh for a mod point or 5, this is the most intelligent thing I've read in the whole story.

      --
      How many people can read hex if only you and dead people can read hex?
    3. Re:Call for the Space Elevator by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      I'd also really like to spend a space elevator, but for now there's still a -lot- of research which has to be done until it's at all feasible. On the other hand, private spaceflight can be achieved using technologies which have been around for dozens of years.

      I predict that once someone is able to do something as simple as create a footbridge (or even a decent rope) using carbon nanotubes, interest will pick up greatly. For the moment though, it's too high-risk, and people really don't know just how much more research will be needed (or if there are unforeseen obstacles which would make it effectively impossible).

    4. Re:Call for the Space Elevator by corblix · · Score: 1
      Let's face it, sticking people or anything else on top of a big firecracker is always going to be really dangerous and really expensive. The space elevator will be cheap (over the long haul) and very safe in comparison.

      That "safe" part is the problem. Yes, trips on a space elevator should be very safe. But what about the elevator itself? The thing would be in an incredible amount of tension. Cut it is just the right place (with a bomb, or a collision with a well placed orbiting object) and the bottom part falls. Due to Coriolis force, it does not fall straight down. If it breaks up, then BIG pieces could hit just about anywhere near the equator. If it stays in one piece, it could still wrap all the way around the earth.

      We're talking about the mega-disaster to end all mega-disasters here. Any proposal that does not deal with this up-front is worthless.

  38. Why bother with the government by kahrhoff · · Score: 1, Insightful

    What happened to the entrepeunerial spirit here in the US. Why all of this worry up front of what the government thinks. This country used to be lead by innovation and the government would figure a way to deal with the consequences. Now we have become a nation that first thinks of regulators and liability first and innovation might just find it's way into the equation.

    1. Re:Why bother with the government by JohnnyCannuk · · Score: 1

      Gee, do you think maybe its because some people, other than Libertarians of course, may be motivated by things other than money? Do you think maybe its becasue we've all learned how good unchecked capitalism has been for people in the past (see The Great Depression)...

      You may now knee-jerk react and call me a socialist or communist....

      --
      Never by hatred has hatred been appeased, only by kindness - the Buddha
    2. Re:Why bother with the government by Capitalist1 · · Score: 1

      The Great Depression was caused by government interference in the economy. Thanks for playing this round of "I Learned History At Public School"! You are the ... winner?

      I don't think you're a Socialist or a Communist. You're just mis-educated, which is in fact far worse and much harder to correct than simply being uneducated.

      --
      One man's religion is another man's belly-laugh. - LL
  39. Personally, I prefer high-altitude ballooning by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    High-altitude ballooning would offer all of the advantages of conventional-powered recreatonal space flight, i.e. great view, exposure to ionizing radiation, with none of the pitfalls, i.e. contrails of burnt tire exhaust, unconrollable vomiting. Just put on yer space suit, tie a few balloons to a lawn chair, and you're good to go. Don't even need a space suit up to about 55 thousand feet (the limit at which you can pressure-breathe O2).

    As for the commerical uses, I've been on a plane load of puking tourists, thanks; I'll stick to cattle class on a 747.

  40. How long before?.. by 21mhz · · Score: 3, Funny

    Carmack builds a large base on Mars to conduct some shady experiments, and, well, you know the rest?

    --
    My exception safety is -fno-exceptions.
  41. Commercial space travel by uberdave · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Shortly after the WW1 and before commercial air travel became popular, "barnstorming" aviators would "buzz" small towns or county fairs, using of one of the local farm fields as a temporary runway, and offer airplane rides to customers. These flights didn't have a "real destination". The purpose was not travel, but experience.

    The emerging space tourism industry is about to begin it's "barnstorming" days, selling rides for the experience, not the destination. Initially it will only suborbital flights. Soon, they will be competing for altitude and duration of weightlessness records. Then someone will start offering a "once around" package.

    Space flight as a means to an end is not going to happen until you have and end with meaning. Why "sit on a thousand pounds of explosives" to go to the moon? There's nothing there but grey rocks and dust. Mars, same thing, but the rocks are red. There's no real destination, no purpose in going except for the experience of being there, and that won't change until we get some sort of permanent outpost set up there.

    1. Re:Commercial space travel by grozzie2 · · Score: 1
      The barnstorming analogy is a good one, but this is a more modern era. Note the whole point of this /. article. These guys aren't even at the point of having an airplane to fly yet, and they are already trying to set themselves up as the rulemakers.

      I've been involved in aviation for almost 30 years, and I've seen a LOT of changes in that time, most of it in the areas of rules/regulations, as well as some pretty spectacular improvements in technology. Most rules changes I've seen, go back to some form of experience, many of them being the outcome of investigations into serious accidents. The point is, there is a deep well of experience driving the huge ruleset of today.

      Within this group, I do not see the experience well required to provide regulation into a budding space industry. Like the barnstormers of old, one of them may have 3 flights under his belt, but, that's not a knowledge well deep enough from which to develop rulesets.

      Aviation can be dangerous, and a lot of people have died over the years, accumulating our net knowledge depth in various subjects today. From that knowledge, we have developed guidelines, to try prevent further needless accidents/death. These guys dont have enough knowledge on the subject to be in a position to make definitive rulesets and guidelines, nobody does. If anybody thinks they can prevent a lot of accidents/deaths during the learning curve as space travel goes from infancy to a mature product, they are dreaming, it isn't going to happen.

      Let them come back after they have 10 years of operations under thier belts, and then, based on experience, start developing rulesets. In the meantime, let common sense (is there such a thing left in this world), good judgement, and good engineering prevail. After a few years of operations, there will be lots of knowledge gained, and many 'obvious' things that need to go into a guiding ruleset, most of which they are ignorant of today. The WORST thing you can do to an industry in its infancy, is to straddle it with a huge set of rules based on pre-conceptions that are based on conjecture, with little/no firsthand experience to draw upon.

    2. Re:Commercial space travel by Teancum · · Score: 1

      One of the things that is going to be driving at least the LEO space launchers will be the fact that getting out of the gravity well of the Earth is so difficult that there must be near perfection of the equipment just to be able to get up at all.

      There is also a manned spaceflight tradition that is now close to 60 years old, with roughly 200+ manned spaceflight missions between the USA and Russia to draw upon, including the deaths of close to 50 people in some very tragic and for 14 televised live on television world-wide. That is a body of experience to draw upon for some rule making, and indeed it is largely that experience that is driving the industry and is in the back of the minds of people like Oberstar and the regulators at the FAA-AST. (BTW, I think Oberstar is going too far.) For unmanned space launches, the number of launches is close to 100,000 (just off the top of my head, and based on figures for the number of satellites that both the former USSR and the USA have sent up) that have reached orbital velocities, and there have been a number of tragic losses of life in that number as well.

      Where the real learning curve is going to come is when industry is established in LEO with several private space stations doing tourism and research platforms much more efficient than the ISS. At that point you will start to see space vehicles that are design to be flown exclusivly in space only, not for re-entry or traveling through atmospheric flight.

      So far there has only been two spacecraft ever designed in a serious manner to perform this task: The Lunar Landers of both the USA and the USSR. And only one of them has ever even flown in space. And that for only a total of 10 missions. That is hardly a body of knowledge to go up against, and is much more likely to be the realm of tinkerers and back-yard mechanics than anything currently being done in commercial space.

      Even a modestly efficient rocket engine like what Armadillo Aerospace has already used would be sufficient for space-to-space destinations. There is also considerable unexplored territory for new propulsion methods, including Ion propulsion, solar sails, nuclear engines, and more that leave a lot of room for imagination. Except for the design and implementation of a nuclear reactor (for a real space-ship rather than space craft), there is hardly any real engineering knowledge about what is needed at all. And even the nuclear reactors would have to rely upon knowledge gained from operating nuclear submarines, which won't totally translate to a space environment.

      It will be exciting to see just what commercial space will come up with in the next few decades.

  42. The exciting part... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The exciting part is how NASA is looking for commercial companies to carry stuff up to the space station.

    If you want capitalists to do anything for you, the first step is to create some demand...

  43. If only we could by bluGill · · Score: 1

    That would be a good idea except for one small problem: we don't have a cable strong enough for the job. Maybe someday someone will make it, maybe not.

    I'll agree that we should work for it, but until it is made we should not put all our eggs in one basket. Even then we need some rocket work because the cable needs to be replaced once in a while. (What if it break, and your replacement breaks too?)

    I think we have cable strong enough for a mars elevator. Would be interesting to send a space elevator to Mars now (meaning in several years after we build it) and once that is in place use it for future missions there.

  44. Worst. Uniforms. Ever. by gelfling · · Score: 0

    that is all muthachuckas

  45. Another 'industry formed group' eh? by stienman · · Score: 1

    industry group which will work with federal regulators to come up with standards to promote crew and passenger safety.

    Which, of course, is formed by those already in the industry who, incidently, may have financial reasons to want tighter regulations thus raising the bar for others who may want to get in the new space race.

    Of course, that isn't completely accurate, but it paints an interesting picture of the situation.

    -Adam

    1. Re:Another 'industry formed group' eh? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      As has been pointed out in congressional testimony as well as by many of the people forming this "federation", if the regulations become too much tighter, there is a very high likelyhood that you will see other countries take over from the USA in terms of leadership in the development in space.

      Indeed, this is largely happening even now, with Russia as the only country (not even the USA at the moment) with a proven and currently available manned spaceflight capability. And China is very close to having that same ability, along with India not too much further behind.

      And just about anybody who follows the space industry would note that in order for NASA to develop a replacement spacecraft for the Shuttle, it would be a 10-year ordeal costing clost to $50 Billion dollars... even for an Apollo-type crash program to get something working. That is neither money nor time that NASA has available to them. It would likely cost more and take even longer than these crude estimates if the bureaucracies within NASA get their hands on the project as well.

      Basically, the only "salvation" that NASA has is that they will have to go with privately built spacecraft for astronauts to get into LEO in the 2020's. Or swallow a whole lot of national pride and go with foreign launch systems for critical military and classified space activities. That isn't really an option either. I don't see the current Space Shuttles being in operation in 2020, and no politician is going to support having them around if it doesn't get them too many votes.

      Once there is an established commercial space launch business (including manned spaceflight), this may be more of a problem. Even then, there isn't anything particularly important about going into space from US soil, as any launch for the next century will have to be scheduled at least several weeks or months in advance, making it reasonable for a U.S. citizen to travel to Diego Garcia if needed to go into space. Especially if going up from the Indian Ocean is half or 1/10th the cost. Basically, there will be huge competitive pressures to keep costs down.

      The main reason to form a group like this is to counter the heirs of Senator Proxmire (D-WI) who seem to seek the dismantling of the U.S. space industry. Notably Representative Oberstar is one of those congressmen who want to see private space go away.

  46. Wrights Flights by Baldrson · · Score: 1
    A lot of people were nipping at the Wrights' heels during that time period but the thing that really let the Wrights win the title of first in flight was their high frequency of testing back in Ohio where they perfected the flight controls.

    Everyone else was pretty much able to duplicate the internal combustion engine-powered glider, but only the Wrights managed to run enough tests under a high enough rate of evolutionary change (enabled by their hands-on experience in their bicycle shop) that they could solve the all-important control problem.

    Similarly, the thing that will really open space to private enterprise will be a group that figures out how to run a steady stream of test flights at a high rate with evolutionary changes enabled by flexible design/fabrication.

  47. Great, more regulatory bodies on the way... by dark_requiem · · Score: 1

    Ah, that's just what we need. A fledgling industry, operating in large part in a region over which the government can't even claim legitimate authority (space), and the industry leaders are cowing down and working with them, which will give an appearance of legitimacy to further unconstitutional regulation of private industry. Let common law do it's thing. If a spaceship blows up, the company is liable for damages, and will be sued out of existence faster than any federal regulator could shut them down. A piece of spacecraft falls on and damages private property, same deal. It's not that hard to figure out, and it certainly doesn't require government intervention.

  48. zerg by Lord+Omlette · · Score: 1

    So this is the Birth of a Federation?

    --
    [o]_O
    1. Re:zerg by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not until we get a single warp capable military vessel, and a colony ship. And no, please, god no, don't name it "Enterprise" the number NX-01. The less we remember that, the more we can deny it happened.

  49. Concept images of Virgin Galactic space station? by FleaPlus · · Score: 2, Informative

    Virgin Galactic's web site has a new computer-generated
    video available, which shows the full flight profile of the Virgin
    Galactic craft. It's available for streaming at the bottom of this
    page:

    http://www.virgingalactic.com/news.asp

    I took the liberty of capturing just about all the key frames from the
    video, and posting them on the web:

    http://www.its.caltech.edu/~neilh/virgingalactic/

    The most interesting images are seen right after the question "What
    Next?" flashes on the screen. These are images of what appear to be a
    Virgin Galactic space station, with a SpaceShipOne-style craft docked.
    Of course, they're probably complete vapourware for now, but they
    certainly look interesting:

    http://www.its.caltech.edu/~neilh/virgingalactic/0 0002175.png
    http://www.its.caltech.edu/~neilh/virgingalactic/0 0002215.png
    http://www.its.caltech.edu/~neilh/virgingalactic/0 0002260.png

    I've been told that these some of these images also appeared on the Discovery Channel's Black Sky: The Race for Space DVD, with descriptions from Burt Rutan.

  50. Where's the funding? by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

    And how much funding has Kliper received so far? My impression is that they haven't received even a fraction of the 10 billion roubles they say they need. Even if they got that much money, they wouldn't expect a first launch of the vehicle until 2010.

    There's some more info on the Kliper over at Astronautix.

    Seriously, in the 90s NASA had several abortive projects which got about as far as (or farther than) the Kliper is now. Some examples are the Lockheed Martin X-33, the Orbital Sciences X-34, the McDonnell Douglas DC-X, and the Scaled Composites X-38. Most of these had insurmountable technical difficulties, although my personal suspicion is that the DC-X and X-38 could have evolved into very nice systems. Unfortunately, when it comes to government projects, the funding situation is king.

    1. Re:Where's the funding? by demachina · · Score: 1


      Kliper has an uphill funding battle but its a tribute to the Russian Space Agencies that in spite of that they still find a way to keep doing stuff in space. They will also benefit that the Russian government has regained some control of its big oil reserves. Their oil and gas fields, thanks to high prices, are bringing in big cash reserves to Russia if they keep them from beeing looted by plutocrats and foreign companies.

      You may not have noticed but they are the only nation that has always been able to put men in space pretty much continuously since 1960. The U.S. has gone through 3 long periods with no manned launch vehicle and is going in to another one when the shuttle is retired.

      Hate to break it to you but listing the litany of failed U.S. launch vehicles has zero relevance to anything relating to Kliper. Its just proof positive that the nexus of politicians, NASA and its contractors have completely lost the ability to do anythingin the manned space program.

      Kliper is an incremental improvement on Soyuz, a big one, but its not like most of these failed U.S. attempts which were radical departures and failed as a result. To their tribute they are bending metal on a full scale mockup while I'm pretty sure Boeing and Lockheed are still working on 3D fantasies for CEV. If they do manage a launch in 2010 that is still 4 years ahead of CEV.

      --
      @de_machina
    2. Re:Where's the funding? by demachina · · Score: 1

      Was checking and 10 billion roubles sure does sound like an insurmountable obstacle. Then you check the exchange rate which as of Dec 31, 2004 was 28 roubles to the dollar. So divide 10 billion roubles and divide by 28 and you get:

      $357 million

      Russia took in $86 billion dollars in oil revenue in 2004 and in fact their economy is doing a lot better thanks to high oil and gas prices and the Yukos debacle mostly behind them now.

      NASA, Boeing and Lockheed are spending $500 millions dollars just this year on CEV and when its gone they will have done next to nothing. Another $1 billion dollars which is 28 billion roubles is slated for CEV in the 2006 budget.

      Geez, this is one case for outsourcing I'd jump at. Give the Russians the $357 million and come back and pick up your space craft in 2010, even if it overruns to $500 million and 2011 you'll still be WAY ahead of the CEV

      If CEV stays on budget, which would be a miracle for NASA and these contractors its gonna cost 179 billion roubles just through 2009 and then you still have 5 more years to go before the first manned launch to LEO. For another five years you would have to at least double the first 5 years to so you are at 360 billion roubles to get CEV to its first LEO launch, 36X more expensive than Kliper.

      I sure hope the Europeans, Indians, Japanese, Chinese, or some wealthy private adventurers(Paul Allen you out there?) gives the Russians the money after they show it at the Paris Air Show.

      --
      @de_machina
    3. Re:Where's the funding? by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      The thing is, I see no evidence that the Kliper has gotten any farther than the failed US launch vehicles I mentioned. As far as I can tell, all that exists right now are some paper studies and a mock-up of the frame.

      I do have to admit though, that if they do get the funding they need this could turn out very well. The Russians have a lot of experience with building craft like these from the Buran -- this basically seems like a downsized Buran with a lifting body.

    4. Re:Where's the funding? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      I know people who have businesses in Russia (with American financing), and right now the political situation in Russia is such that it isn't a very reliable idea to make much of any business investment into Russia at the moment. Even for a very sure thing (like selling Coca-Cola in Russia) you aren't very sure that you will get your money back.

      It is much better than when the Soviets were in power, but the Russian court system may still end up taking property and business investments away from you even if you have done a good job of running a bussiness in Russia profitably. I do hope that Russia gets their act together, and I think 50-100 years from now Russia is still going to be a major economic and political leader in the world. The next couple of decades are going to be a wild ride, however.

      In short, it would be much safer for somebody like Paul Allen or some other billionaire to invest in American companies instead where the legal system is more stable and predictable. Or even a business in the EU for that matter, especially when there is inherant risk to the whole concept even working in the first place.

    5. Re:Where's the funding? by demachina · · Score: 1

      I guess I should have qualified this probably isn't really a high profit venture, its more like a prestige and love of space exploration venture.

      You see about 2010 when the U.S. retires the shuttle chances are high the Russians are going to be the only game in town for putting people in to orbit or maybe going to the moon for at least 4 years until the CEV MIGHT come on line.

      You are also going to have this huge investment in the ISS assuming NASA manages to kind of finish it by 2010, that is also probably going to be completely dependent on the Russians to supply and crew.

      Its not an accident Russia is targeting Kliper for 2010. If they pull it off they will pretty much take over the ISS, on the cheap, and take advantage of all the money NASA has squandered on it.

      The Europeans, Japanese and Canadians in particular have a lot of money sunk in ISS that they've gotten next to nothing out of and many of their modules are still sitting on the ground. I sure could see them being willing to pony up some cash if it means they keep the ISS alive, get it up to a 6 man crew, and start doing some research in it. Don't think they are real pleased that the U.S. is planning to throw together the pieces and then give up on the ISS and the Shuttle.

      Sure seems to me like the Chinese might also like to get in the game. They could sure spare $350 million especially if they get technology sharing in the process. It would jumpstart their rather slow manned space effort.

      I can see a lot of potential angles for Kliper that might might prove to be interesting, and I wager the Russians see every one of them too.

      --
      @de_machina
    6. Re:Where's the funding? by demachina · · Score: 1

      "In short, it would be much safer for somebody like Paul Allen or some other billionaire to invest in American companies instead where the legal system is more stable and predictable."

      I forgot to answer this. Two problems

      - If Allen goes with Scaled Composites, T/Space etc where his money would have impact chances are its going to be a long time before they make it to LEO. Suborbital is good for a stunt and a rush for rich bored tourists but you can't do anything else useful with it.

      - If he were to go with Lockheed/Boeing who are the only ones going in to LEO anytime soon they will just swallow his money and he wont get anything out of it.

      The Russians in the space agency are far more entrepreneurial than most people think though granted the Russian government is an untrustworthy mess, and it is a country rife with corruption, of course you could say almost the same about the U.S. thanks the Bush administration and one corprate scandal after another.

      --
      @de_machina
    7. Re:Where's the funding? by demachina · · Score: 1

      I don't think its really anything like Buran except maybe its going to have some manuevering ability during reentry. It is a lifting body but its not nearly as heavy or complex as the Buran/Shuttle, no wings, tail, landing gear, cockpit, etc.

      The Astronautix article someone posted further up has more detail than the article I posted.

      Sounds to me like its a capsule just shaped somewhat more like a lifting body but at some point its just going to pop a parachute and land like their current capsules.

      I think it could be best described as a lifting body capsule. It also sounds like they've been working on it for a while they just haven't advertised it much.

      --
      @de_machina
  51. American Express and Space Adventures by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

    Already been done. From Here:

    THE MEMBERSHIP REWARDS PROGRAM FROM AMERICAN EXPRESS LETS CARDMEMBERS ROCKET INTO ORBIT THROUGH SPACE ADVENTURES LTD.

    NEW YORK, March 03, 2004 -- American Express today announced that cardmembers enrolled in its Membership Rewards program can now redeem points with Space Adventures Ltd., the world's leading space flight experiences and space tourism company. For the first time, cardmembers can touch the edge of space and revel in the weightlessness of Earth's orbit by using points to get there, adding to the universe of already abundant experiences Membership Rewards enrollees can enjoy.

    "Space Adventures is the latest of many unique experiences we offer to fuel our enrollees' imaginations and prompt our cardmembers to ask not just what they can do with points, but how far they can go with them," said Chris Lynch, vice president, Rewards Management at American Express. "Without dipping into their wallets, cardmembers can redeem for an almost limitless number of things -- like a journey to the cusp of space or a rejuvenating day at a luxurious spa -- and use points to cover the costs."

    American Express is offering three Space Adventures packages to enrollees who wish to experience the sights and sensations of space travel:

    * Zero-Gravity Flight (1,000,000 points): Experience weightlessness by traveling in a specially outfitted jet aircraft that is used to train astronauts to work and test equipment in a weightless environment.

    * Edge of Space Flight (3,000,000 points): Fly in a MiG-25 supersonic jet at up to two-and-one-half times the speed of sound (Mach 2.5) and above 80,000 feet, where one can see the curvature of the Earth and the blackness of space.

    * Sub-Orbital Space Flight (20,000,000 points): Reserve your seat now for a ride aboard a sub-orbital spacecraft that will climb to an altitude of 62 miles, expose you to experience several minutes of weightlessness and treat you to Earth views from space.

  52. Travellers' Aid Society by CoolHandLucifer · · Score: 1
  53. Proposed standards: by chiph · · Score: 1

    1. Make the airlocks compatible with each other and the NASA stuff.

    2. Make the Oxygen and Nitrogen fittings standard, and not mechanically interchangable.

    3. Develop the equivalent to the Guard frequency (international rescue radio channel), but for spacecraft.

    Chip H.

  54. Does anybody else.. by firew0lfz · · Score: 1

    feel that we just need to kill off NASA right now?

    I mean.. its just sad. It really is, the way it's going these days. From the hubble to the ISS, it's just not right.

    --
    Try not to let life get in the way of living.
  55. OT: dustrunners postmortem? by StupidKatz · · Score: 1

    Since I first ran across dustrunners some years back, the site has been up and down most often than a yo-yo. For months after I'd arrived, it seemed to be some sort of pseudo-reality game - a rather intriguing one - until it suddenly disappeared, that is.

    Long story short, it's been doing that ever since: appearing out of the haze from time to time, oozing appeal and promises, only to vanish again sometime later.

    While you say the actual history of dustrunners/the show is 'way too depressing to put on a web page', some of us are very interested in what actually happened.

    1. Re:OT: dustrunners postmortem? by MrAndrews · · Score: 1

      Ooooh, trust me, I'd love to do a full postmortem on the damn show. Not that it's dead. To give a brief (and off topic, of course) summary of how things progressed...

      We were about to actually launch the show back in 2001 as planned when we were approached by an animation studio that wanted to put it on TV for real money, as opposed to our trying to trailblaze the whole way along. That would have worked out stupendously except that the company shelved our idea quite quickly and kept the worldwide rights for 2 years (not unusual, but quite obnoxious since that left me, personally, as the sole proprietor of the massive dotcom-type debt that the company had developed over the previous year).

      Just as the rights were about to revert back to the original owners, the company basically shuffled us off to another company that was equally exciting, and so the show developed a bit more, and I think you'd probably seen at least one resurgence during that time where we were marketing rather than trying to run the same old game we had before (which was damn fun to create and maintain, I must say). The downside to this is that they wanted to hack apart the concept to fit some misconceptions about what geeks wanted (hence the Ewoks Incident).

      That went nowhere, so I got the rights back, and tried to gather up enough sheer grumpiness to push the thing to completion (we were still very close to being done, so hey, why not just tweak it and be on our way?). Not so easy. First, there were legal issues that came up as to ownership of assets (now fully resolved), and right after I put up what was to be the definitive DSR site, one of my kidneys collapsed into utter disaster and I was too drugged up for the better part of a year to care about spaceships anymore.

      Of course things are cyclical, and in the past six months another animation company has tried to shop the show in Europe with great tentative success, but nothing worth selling the rights for. So instead we (some of the founders and I) took the idea back to the base and asked if we could make the show for real this time, the way we wanted to in the first place, and just get it done.

      So I'm not putting up a proper site again until we're further along. The first episode grew from 22 minutes to a little under 120. The story is more mature, the themes are more complex, and it's generally more of what I think the Typhies of old wanted to see. But it's kind of slow-going yet. People are working on it on their spare time, between other jobs, just hacking away. I liken it to the Firefox approach... it may be invisible to most people for a long time, but eventually it'll make waves.

      Anyway, long story short: when we've got the first 33 minutes done, Dustrunners'll be out over torrent in xvid or something (one nice thing about the passage of time is that the technology has finally caught up to our dream... downloading an hour-long movie isn't as terrifying as it was in 2001)... and we can get on with our lives. I really am sorry about all the yo-yo antics. In hindsight, it would've been better to just stick to our guns and release the thing on the web in the first place. But that's the kind of thing you don't really appreciate when someone's tossing threats of massive wealth and NBC in your face :)

      Wow, I rambled. Anything else you want to know?

    2. Re:OT: dustrunners postmortem? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Kidney explosions aside, sounds hopeful. I had a lot of fun playing along with the news/forum game, even after I discovered that having my character publicly argue against the DR "cause" was not exactly going to get me any blue ribbons. :) I thought the concept of producing a show to be distributed via the 'net was very interesting, in addition to the sibject matter, even though I had no idea how you'd pull the distribution side of it off (thank you, BitTorrent), let alone how the crew would manage to produce half-hour-long segments on par with the quality of the short teaser which was released early on. Regardless, I was eager to watch the events unfold.

      ... until I stopped by the next day and the site was gone. Poof. No word, and even Google didn't have a lot to say about "Dustrunners", nor Montreal... Montage.... the M-guy and his company. I thought it was both a shame and the answer to the question about how things would turn out.

      Then it appeared out of nowhere again, looking like the aftermath of a plane crash, with most of the crew MIA, and the pilot injured (kidneys, it seems). A recruitment drive seemed to be in full-force, folks seemed to be noticing that DR had returned, etc.
      Then it disappeared again. :P

      Anyway, I'm glad you're not dead either. Thanks for the info - here's hoping everything ends up working out.
      -
      SK

    3. Re:OT: dustrunners postmortem? by MrAndrews · · Score: 1

      Montcalm, that was my alias back then. Good ole days. Actually, the teaser we did has a funny story... we spent gobs of cash paying a storyboarder to make the teaser based on a script we compiled (some episode shots, some just-for-the-teaser shots). The storyboard was behind schedule, but we still passed it on to the animators... five people... and they had a month to do the work. Silly us, we didn't hound them endlessly for the entire month, and at the end, only one person had done any work, and it completely disregarded the storyboard. 100%. Nothing the same at all.

      So Spin (co-creator) and I cracked open our copies of 3DS and stitched together the teaser over a weekend (cause we'd promised it would come out that Sunday). We only knew 3DS enough to rotate and render models at the time. There were supposed to be a few dozen character shots in the trailer that we had to cut out because we didn't know how to animate characters at all. It was hellish. 3 days of no sleep at all, and we put it out. The quality of the show now makes that old teaser look as goofy as it really was.

      As for disagreeing with the DR cause... yeah, that wasn't even my doing (though I did stoke the fires somewhat from time to time). And the new scripts actually deal more with that aspect of things, so hopefully you'll feel your comments were appreciated after all :)