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Xbox Marketing VP Says 10M 360s In First Year
Peter Moore, the VP for Xbox marketing, has publicly stated that the Xbox 360 will sell 10 million units by the end of the first year. From the article: "The advantage of launching first for Microsoft, though, is that it has the chance to establish itself as a prominent next-generation format without initial competition. 'The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform,' said Moore at the ELSPA event. The target is certainly an ambitious one, as the current lifetime to date total for Xbox consoles sales worldwide is only around 21 million after almost four years on sale."
That's a lot of modchips that have to get made.
Trolling is a art,
This doesn't seem an especially unrealistic estimate. If anything, I'd say it's slightly lower than where MS should be aiming, given their stated intention to rival the PS3. After all, they've got an entire Christmas season to themselves, they've got a pretty well oiled marketing machine and they're going to be hitting the Japanese market *much* harder than they did last time around. I know that's not saying much, but with the developers they have on board this time, it could all end very differently.
If I had to hazard a guess as to why they've picked the 10 million figure, I'd say that they've decided: a) that it sounds a nice big number to people who don't know the console market b) that they're probably not going to have to give embarrassing explanations when they fall short of it and c) that there's a good chance they'll exceed it, in which case they can have a good gloat.
'The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform'
Well I set a target of having sex with 10 billion hot university girls by Christmas. TRY BEATING THAT MOMENTUM!
Where does the number come from? They have to have some kind of justification for it, especially when the article ends with "lifetime to date total for Xbox consoles sales worldwide is only around 21 million after almost four years on sale."
Seriously, is there some context for this? Can we read more of what Moore said somewhere?
more of the same on Twitter.
"The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform"
No, jackass, the sale of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform. The target just gives you an excuse to run your mouth off and get it printed by gullible editors.
I think there is a world market for maybe five personal web logs.
The BBC version of the story reports the same speech quite differently.
Mr Moore actually said Microsoft could reach the 10 million mark in 12 to 16 months.
A pizza of radius z and thickness a has a volume of pi z z a
Look at this:
MS predicts 5 million for sales in first fiscal year.
The result?
Sales were 3.9 million.
Not too bad, but not perfect. 20% off. Still, it's better to underpromise and over-deliver than the other way around.
Taco is a tool. I posted this, then they made the story 'sub only' and it ate my post so I had to re-type it. Lesson? Type first in notepad, then paste.
What on Earth does that have to do with the X360? Other than it coming out ahead of the competition, Sega's failures there bear no similarity to the situation Microsoft faces. Sega had already had the MegaCD, the 32 addon for the Megadrive/Genesis, and the Saturn be rejected by consumers. They had unfortunately been out of it for a while by the time the Dreamcast launched.
Microsoft has had a great deal of success with the Xbox, by some measures overtaking one of the biggest names in the industry (Nintendo) and by many more leading the pack with their online gaming service - something that many would consider to be the next Big Thing for consoles after it changed the PC gaming industry so drastically over the last decade.
All of this is of course ignoring the fact that MS just won't let this fail. The Xbox is a massive end-run to get a Microsoft device in the living room, to get their brand recognition up for people that don't go near computers, and to use as a platform for the rest of their intentions such as in IPTV. It's a Microsoft reach around so you won't notice the pounding they're going to give you, and I doubt they'll be willing to pull out early.
So to speak.
This comment was formatted for readability, but I forgot the line break tags
Well, if they can get the price point right, I think it's plausible.
..." according to the industry watchers.
I think if they release it for around $200-225, then it will definately be do-able.
Before you start telling me how they won't release that low, remember the hype around PSP: at first there was "no way that it would be less than $400
If you combine this with the $60+ (and rising!) price point for newer games, I think the whole thing is plausible.
I know I'll get one. Then again, I plan on getting a PS3 as well (but only after the first gen hardware is gone).
Why do I M2 everything negatively?
Remember, this isn't a question of a market demanding a good at a certain price point: MS, just like Sony, is going to lose millions of dollars in their first year of giving away razors, one way or the other.
That is very true. With the exception of NES in the 8-bit era, no other first launch console of a generation has outlasted a later counterpart.
- Turbo Graphics-16 killed by Sega Genesis
- Sega Saturn killed by PS1
- Dreamcast killed by PS2
Of course, M$ has something no other first launch company ever had. That's a billion dollar windows operating system.
Guy #1: "Man, this Xbox we're working on is gonna be awesome."
Guy #2: "I know. We're gonna sell like a million units."
Guy #1: "No, way, man. We're gonna sell like ten million."
Guy #2: "Dude, that's awesome. We should tell people."
Guy #1: "Heh. You said units."
You are waaaay off. Remember that they own the IP rights to the 360 CPU and GPU. They will merely be paying royalty fees to ATI and IBM this time around and can take the design and have it fabbed anywhere they like. ATI has stated that they expect $2 to $5 per Xbox 360 in paid fees from MS. The IBM deal is probably similar.
In pure silicon (and other hardware) costs, the latest word is that the 360 comes in at $375 or thereabouts, which is actually cheaper than the original Xbox. The reason? They don't have to buy parts from suppliers (Intel and nVidia last time) because they own the design for the parts themselves.
Of course, this doesn't count the R&D they've already spent, but that will be made up over the life of the console (or by 2007 if you believe Allard).
I predict a $299 price at launch. At most, $349 if they want to be in the black from day one.