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Sony May Delay PS3 Until 2007
GodFather writes "ArsTechnica posted an article that claims the PS3 may be pushed back as far as 2007 if the Xbox 360 launch flops. The reasoning behind it? If Microsoft comes out with a weak set of titles at launch Sony could delay and build a larger launch library to lay the smack down on Microsoft."
I can't imagine this being a good idea, Sony would be giving Microsoft a chance to keep moving next gen units and Nintendo a chance to leapfrog them with the Revolution while they sit idle just so they can have a larger library on launch? Every moment they sit without units on the shelves gives MS the chance to release the next Halo, plus they'll have next gen titles that would've been ported to both systems. Madden '06 may not be the difference maker, but '07 just might, EA will have had time to tweak to the system more, and make the games better on the 360, but Sony fanboys will be stuck with the weaker PS2 game. My suggestion is kill this idea immediately and get that PS3 out as soon as it's ready for production. Even if the 360 doesn't have a good launch, doesn't mean it wont be successful throughout it's lifetime, something they should think about with reference to their own PSP.
"Plans are for fools! Oglethorpe, the plutonian (Aqua Teen Hunger Force)
The source for this is "an analyst".
In other words, some random guy who doesn't work for Sony is predicting that Sony may delay the PS3, based basically on having read the same news reports you and I do.
This should be taken with exactly as much credence as if you'd heard "well this guy on the internet thinks that Sony is going to..."
Which is to say.
None.
Irritable, left-wing and possibly humorous bumper stickers and t-shirts
Its interesting that this comes quite soon after Bill Gates himself announced that the first next-gen Xboxes would ship with non-HD DVD drives, effectively limiting the launch software to dvd media, and perhaps even limiting all games throughout the lifetime of the platform. If Sony do choose to take extra time in ensuring the launch titles make the absolute most out of the additional storage capacity and performance available on the PS3, it could be enough to provide a killer blow even to a successful xbox 360. If the PS3 manages to blow the xbox away in terms of game visuals/depth, then they'll almost have skipped a generation and taken the fight right back to microsoft.
Business Voyeur
Disclaimer: I do not own the Playstation 2.
I used to own a Playstation years ago, and one of my favorite things about it was that the library of games for the system was incredibly vast. However, scratching the surface revealed that many of the games were cheap ripoffs of each other and that truly original games were few and far between.
Nintendo has always seemed to have a talent for coming up with a decent library of original games that keeps the devoted coming back. Sony, on the other hand, seems to push quantity over quality when it comes to their library. If they are going to take 2 years to fill out their launch library, I wonder how much of that will be really good games and how much of it will be cutscene movies (Final Fantasy), sequels (anything by Rockstar), and played out genres (the FPS comes to mind).
I really like Sony. I owned many of their walkmans years ago, and I enjoyed the gaming I did on the original Playstation. But both they and the audience must learn that just because you have many times the number of games as your competitor, it is not a very good metric because the number of good, original games in that library may be only a fraction of that amount.
Jesus saved me from my past. He can save you as well.
I don't think it's all that bad of a move. First off, both the Xbox 2 (Quick, give it a name with a 3 in it or it'll look bad compared to Sony...feh.) and the PS3 were rushed due to competition with each other. If the Xbox fails because of that, and because they rushed to undercut even Sony's timetable, then it clearly makes sense. Above and beyond that, though, Sony is really more about franchise loyalty and the flavor of games produced for it, and they have plenty of games slated all the way through next year for the PS2. They're not going to lose their core audience to Xbox. Most Playstation fans who want a game that comes out on XBox will wait and buy it for their actual computer. Meanwhile, if they did delay, the PS3 might actually manage to live up to part of it's hype, something I don't have a lot of hope for given the release-date war between Sony and Microsoft. Eventually it reached some obscure level of corporate triple-dog-dare, and Sony called them on it. If they succeed Sony will have to launch, if not they can stand their laughing and calling MS a dumbass for trying it. I can only imagine the screams of pain from engineers everytime MS and Sony's marketing teams released a revised release date.
that the Phantom console has been waiting for!
I applaud your restraint, and if enough consumers had it we would get better products all around. However Microsoft's model is predicated on reoccurring revenue streams. Office does not change to drastically version from version yet enough people buy it to make MS tons o' cash. I bet enough people are going to buy the XBOX 360 and then turn around and buy the XBOX 360.5 to make them more than enough money to justify the launch of the 360 with out the HD-DVD. As long as MS has something out there can can create FUD with this is a lose for Sony.
We are the Microsoft. You will be assimilated. The exact date of assimilation has slipped once again, but we expect to be at your planet sometime Q1 next year. Be sure to watch for us.
We will bring your total cost of living down through universal cybernetic hardware implants. Periodic software updates may be purchased to allow you to control the new hardware that will periodically sprout from your body. Your normal motor functions will be replaced with an expensive yet inferior system that will only allow you to shuffle along like a crippled old man.
You will have access to the ultimate Peer-to-Peer network with secure music downloads direct to the brain with properly activated frontal lobes.
We will tell you where you want to go.
There's no indications anyone outside the company even has something looks like a dev kit yet, they haven't revealed what the machine even is to the public and I don't think they've revealed it to most developers. Microsoft's got, like, near-finished games. Sony's got devkits going out and they're publicly apologizing to developers for not being able to manufacture enough of them. Ask Nintendo what they're up to? They talk about the DS and its online plans.
I don't think Nintendo's anywhere near ready to ship this thing.
Also their memory supplier let slip that they believed the revolution would ship in "mid-2006". Take that however you want.
My personal suspicion would probably be that the Revolution is going to be released last. Nintendo's either got the most amazing show of secrecy ever constructed among men, or they aren't nearly as far along as Sony and Microsoft. And I doubt Sony will delay a console release just because they don't have any games. They didn't delay the PS2 launch for lack of games, they didn't delay the Japan PSP launch for lack of games, and when they delayed the American PSP launch (for lack of games at the time of Japanese launch?) it didn't really help them much.
If I'm right about this, though, Nintendo probably won't suffer much for coming out last. They seem to be going for a very different sort of strategy next generation than Sony and Microsoft.
Irritable, left-wing and possibly humorous bumper stickers and t-shirts
Can't be a good idea. All the 3rd party publishers are waiting on the PS3 launch to start getting their investment back. An extra year before you can sell your game ? They'd scream bloody murder.
Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1992-1951
Wow,once again the clueless analysts have shown us the light. Honestly, if these people were really all that good at spotting industry trends and making accurate predictions they'd be working in the industry.
From the column:
Merrill Lynch estimated that the cost to produce a single PS3 would be a shade under $500. Considering that the Xbox 360 is expected will be priced at around $299, it was felt that even a $399 price tag on the PS3 meant Sony taking a $1bn hit on hardware costs alone in the first year.
When you consider that they've packed Bluetooth, HDTV (a feature Nintendo ended up dropping because of cost) and the first Commercial release of Blu-Ray in there, it's not too surprising that the earlier they launch the console, the harder Sony's going to get hit in the pocket.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face forever.
- George Orwell
Sony risks shipping hardware that is outdated at the day of launch. If it takes years for launch software to be written for a new platform then how can the hardware be bleeding edge?? The hardware spec gets finalized the day your developers start working. From that point onward you are obsolete.
What I think Sony or others should do, if they are moving in a parallel direction, is try to anticipate this gap between initial hardware finalization and the launch of the console, and have developers write to a more stripped down version of the hardware while you anticipate the final version having more cores or an additional CPU by the time you launch. That way the initial games might not take full advantage of the hardware but the second you start making consoles you'll know you are at as close to the bleeding edge as possible. When the 2nd wave of software gets finished it will be able to take advantage of the "last minute" extra hardware.
You either do that or you write the software to automatically elegantly upscale to theoretical extra parallelism.
Come on, whats the point of even debating this. Microsoft is not going to be weak at release anyway. Even the games are complete turds people are going to lap it up because they have the jump on the next gen.
Like they did with the Dreamcast... or the CDi, or the Turbo-Graphix 16...
why does everyone seem to think "first to market" is a silver bullet that trumps all other issues?
No, they didn't.
Read this.
Yes, because the launch library matters.
Wait, no it doesnt.
The PS2 had a bunch of crap right out of the gate. The leader of the pack was a mediocre snowboarding game that was propelled to stardom by the fact that it was one of the very few games worth owning at the time.
Yeah, the xbox had Halo at launch, but that didnt matter either. They could have released it at any time and still garnered the same results (a lot of sold hardware).
The Gamecube had one outstanding game (Rogue Leader) at launch, and then THREE MONTHS OF NOTHING until Super Smash Bros Melee, and the console continues to be #2 worldwide.
Two crappy launches (in regards to titles) and those are beating out a wildly successful launch in the long run.
Now, if the consoles launch at the same time it matters... Or at least one would think so. The cube's poor launch was within days of the xbox's great one (again, in regards to games only), and they are in a dead heat now.
So I guess my point is: "Analyst" speculation is less than worthless, and history reveals that supposedly obvious things make no sense at all.
Quit posting what amounts to random guessing about the ps3 and 360. We dont see a story every time a new fake Revolution controller pic hits the net, so why do we still get this crap?
You do realize that this was some independent analyst suggesting this is what Sony MIGHT do, not a press release from Sony saying what they plan to do.