Laptop Makers Skeptical of $100 Laptop Schedule
coolgadget wrote to mention an article at DigitalTimes reporting that the production schedule MIT has laid out for the $100 laptop may be unrealistic. From the article: "Quanta Computer, Compal Electronics, and Inventec, which are reportedly bidding to manufacture the world's cheapest notebook distributed to schools directly through large government initiatives, consider that meeting the volume shipment schedule for the US$100 notebook would be 'unlikely' given the current technical hurdles that need to be overcome ... The OLPC project will need huge support from governments to solve a variety of software and hardware problems including handwriting recognition, translation, and panel issues, all under a low-cost production budget, Taiwan notebook makers stated. Related components for the low-cost notebooks are still in the design stage, indicated the makers, noting that a 7.5-inch display sample for the US$100 model could be released by January of next year at the soonest." We've previously discussed this story.
This is the notebook that partially came apart while Annan was demonstrating it at the U.N.? Probably not quite ready....
http://www.busyweather.com/
Though lack of planning, the $100 laptop is in thousands of small pieces..
Maybe they should have had the Archbishop of Canterbury's brother do the demonstration?
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
Maybe the folks at MIT Media Lab with all the funding they get from the US government should be concerned with providing laptops to underprivilged children in Appalachia instead?? Of course that won't garner headlines that they so crave.
Well, they are trying to integrate WiFi, Bluetooth and all this other stuff. Why? For $100 bucks, I wouldn't expect all the bells and whistles. A keyboard, trackpad (if not a trackball like the oldschool macs), screen, CDROM (not one of those new fandangled DVD-ROMS), and a USB port for thumbdrive access. And besides, $100 is a good price, but even $300 would be lower then most if not all other laptops.
Click Click Bloody Click PANCAKES!
I believe It's Red Hat. I was announced on Slashdot a few weeks ago, iirc.
I thought we would have learned by now that refusing to index the cost and benefit of items (Alternative Minimum Tax, 401(k) maximum contributions, defined pension plans) is just the wrong way to go.
By the time the $100 laptop takes off, $100 will buy you 4 gallons of milk, 3 loaves of bread, and 5 sticks of butter. And who wants to compute when there's buttery milky bread to injest!
If I remember right, it's a version of Red Hat. I'm just wondering what desktop they would run. Performance of Gnome or KDE sucks on most $1000+ laptops, hate to imagine it running on a $100 laptop.
Wasn't it shown again and again that if you provide an open platform to people, you don't really need much more: the 0.1% super-savvy will eventually write the missing drivers/software for the platform.
A loudly-publicized, world-transforming project from the MIT Media Lab turns out to be a lot of hot air? Gee, what were the chances?
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
So manufacturers are not 100% enthusiastic about this idea? Well what a surprise!
If the third world gets $100 laptops using open source software, this will be really bad news for harware manufacturers and the end of the road for many closed source software manufacturers.
If tens of millions of those things go there, they will end up in the developed world as well - and they won't help the bottom lines of the rich companies.
Of course there are difficulties. What do all the trainers with their suits and powerpoint keep telling us? "There are no problems - only oportunities!"
I'll see your Constitution and raise you a Queen.
Never let the person who says it is impossible, stop the person who is actually doing it.
Food, water, and medicine is usually bought locally but that's with what's after the "warlord tax". Sending laptop that are useless for war and cannot be bought locally might actually have a chance to do something.
Obama's legacy: (N)othing (S)ecure (A)nywhere and (T)error (S)imulation (A)dministration
Would it be marketable in North America?
I for one wouldn't mind a second laptop that's cheaper than many PDA's, even at reduced featurset.
Only real negative I see is the ~7 inch display -- I hope they'd provide external display option, though I don't think it's likely due to cost constraint.
Nice trick. What do you do for a follow-up, part the Red Sea? (-:
This isn't aimed at the US market, it is aimed at the developing world. In places where teachers are rare, it would be useful to provide basic numeracy and litteracy teaching - then when these children grow up they can contribute more to their local economy. If they get some kind of Internet access (maybe a satellite link per village?) their parents can check check the price of their stock / crops at the nearest settlements, and find out whether they should take go east or west to get the best price.
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
Rational (i.e. non-empirical) arguments for the plausibility of improvement are not sufficient. For example I saw very nice properly randomized study about giving textbooks to African school children. Children with textbooks did no better than children without textbooks. That is to say, textbooks were a waste of money. The failure was ascribed to the textbooks use of English, but who knows if that was really the cause.
On the other hand, I can see a higher chance of positve change by providing laptops for farmers and small businesses -- especially if the laptops provide access to market data, aid management, or foster B2B commerce. Improving the productivity of small farms, factories, and distributors would raise wages and living standards. This has clearly occurred in the developed world although it takes decades for businesses to really change their processes to get the most out of computers. Helping 3rd-world businesses may not have the same level of charitable karma as aiding school children, but it might provide a greater reduction in poverty.
It would be very sad to see this effort fail because of unfounded assumptions about the impact of laptops on school children.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
I'm very sure that they can get $100 laptops by next year. I can't wait to get signed up on the waiting list!
Here are the proposed specs:
486sx 25 MHz
2 Gig HD
16 MB RAM
2" Passive Matrix LCD
MS-DOS 3.2
This is turning into one of those misguided-with-the-best-intentions type projects, I can see it coming.
Even in the western world, I can't help but wonder what might come out of the widespread adoption of a $100 notebook computer. Not only would this put computers in the hands of people who might not otherwise have the opportunity, but it would also put them in a lot of places where they're not cost effective right now.
Increased accessibility to communication would be the obvious one, it would become VERY interesting if that played off into productivity and creativity growth as well.
Might even make e-books mainstream.
..don't panic
Anyone who thinks there are software problems has never heard of the Sharp Zaurus or the OPIE distro of Linux. All the problems they mentioned have already been solved. This laptop is rather like a large-screen version of a Sharp Zaurus with an integrated power generator.
As for the $100, that is the final volume price. The earlier models will cost more but will be subsidized by the later, high-volume production. This is normally how manufacturing costs end up in the real world.
The problem-solving costs are irrelevant because all the engineering work is being donated by MIT engineers.
We've previously discussed this story.
If I were the Slashdot editors, for dupe protection sake, I would add this statement at the end of every submission.
Hagrin.com
At this point in time, I agree. It's 100% impossible. There is NO WAY that a working laptop computer can be produced for under $100. I don't understand why Slashdotters, who probably spend more time shopping for computers than most people, dont' see this. If a $100 laptop was possible, some bottom feeder like Wal-Mart would already be selling it. As is, we have people beating each other up in big box stores all across the nation to get a $400 loss leader laptop. The $100 laptop is complete and total bullshit.
All that being said, let me announce that I will be giving out $5 laptops to the millions of starving children in the world. This $5 laptop will have a 19" screen, a 120 GB SATA hard drive, wireless connectivity, a full keyboard (available in any language) and be durable enough to be able to be run over with a tank, or dropped into mud.
If you give a man a fish, he'll have food for a day...
The third world does not really need (*) the kind of assistance that the rich countries offer most of the time (food and medicine).
The third world does need:
1. technology (vide my first phrase above)
2. fair trade
Yeah, basically, that's it. And yes, I do live in a 3rd world country. My father comes from a really poor rural area, and both his sons to college, and me an my brother are sort of living the (South) American Dream.
(*) except in the most emergencial cases, of course.
It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
After all, Bayliss did something similar with their clockwork radios. The original idea was to sell something that worked in Africa, yet they found a market for them in developed countries too.
2. If there is an absolute mandate to help the children in underdeveloped nations, wouldn't food, shelter, clothing and basic education be more suitable areas in which to provide assistance? To lift a line from M*A*S*H* - it is wholly inappropriate to give dessert to a child who hasn't had dinner.
That would be something with like a mini laptop (or extra large PDA?)with a 8" screen, 1Gb flash memory as permanent storage, 1 usb port and 1 PCMCIA slot, for people who really want to add ethernet or wi-fi.
I've seen portable DVD players with the right size and screen quality for this, selling with generic brand name for EUR99... If someone could remove the DVD stuff and replace with the right components, voilá, instant "sub-notebook".
An existing product for underprivileged children. It is about one inch thick and roughly the size of a piece of paper, has a screen in the center, a red (usually) border and two very ergonomic rotational controls at the bottom right and left corners. It has advanced security features and is erased by shaking.
...
I guess no one gives a shit for technical development / opportunity in rural Amerika. Just don't teach any of that dammed Monkey science
It was on the UNDP booth. The thing was made out of balsa wood, with a photo where the LCD display would one day sit. It clearly was nothing more than a mock up.
If a $100 laptop was possible, some bottom feeder like Wal-Mart would already be selling it. As is, we have people beating each other up in big box stores all across the nation to get a $400 loss leader laptop.
That's because all mainstream laptops have hard drives, expensive monitors, expensive processors which generate heat that is expensive to cool, and more than 128 MB of RAM because they have to run Windows XP. Have you actually looked at the specs of this laptop and compared it to anything on the market? They don't compare.
You're forgetting that even the loss-leading walmart specials include a 12-15" screen, a hard drive, a 1GHz+ processor, a cdrom, and even an OS license cost of some sort (even if it's just Linspire or the like).
The MIT system has none of those.
Additionally, commercial laptops also have to include at least SOME type of profit for the manufacturer / retailer, otherwise there is no motive to build it. Additionally, there are typically less than a million of each model / spec produced, leading to higher development costs.
The MIT laptop is purely for educational / governmental use, and is meant to have millions of identical systems built. There's no profit motive, and the cost of manufacturing eventually goes down.
There is an organization that is already doing something similar: the Jhai Foundation. They have developed a PC (not a laptop, but still portable), designed by Lee Felsenstein, with no moving parts, that runs on Linux, and can be human-powered, and is based on wireless networking.
They are not as well funded or well known as the Media Lab, but they are already in the field doing it.
Here's more information via Google.
Why go through all this development. Why not attempt to RECYCLE all the pc's geeks like us go through every year. 7 inch LCD? Are they crazy ! For the same resolution how about a TV out ? (eg. C64 or ZX Spectrum, come to think of it that would be so hot, tape drives and all, man they could probably afford floppies !) What use does the 3rd world have for a portable computer ? Are they going to be working whilst commuting? Do they have electricity at home? Do they even want to have something that valuable in their home...? Seems to me a bank of reconditioned towers based at a local school or library, with a tech support guy around, hooked up to somekind of broadband would be the most ideal situation. But what would that leave MIT to do ?
There are so many reasons:
...
1. With standardized hardware it is *much* easier to support users through documentation.
2. With standardized hardware it is easier build training programs for self-service.
3. Standard hardware can create a local market for replacement hardware without requiring the huge capital investment in a wide-ranging inventory.
4. Users can share relevent experiences with the hardware, with odds and ends hardware, the experience becomes less transferable.
5. This notebook is tough. I highly doubt you could ruggedize old laptops appropriately.
6. When was the last time you saw a handcrank built into a laptop? The hardware and software are custom-developed to work in a particular niche, one that is very different from the office desk for which most laptops are built.
7
Well, you get the picture. This is the power of mass production and replacable parts. It's why IT departments buy lots of the same computer model from the same manufacturer. It's why we make standards for USB and XML.
+-------+ between the wish and the thing lies the world - All the Pretty Horses
The one thing you DID have to learn were textbooks, though. That's why you didn't need computers. Printing and distributing text books would cost more than putting a $100 laptop in everyone's hands and allowing them to access content electronically. A publisher could donate electronic texts at virtually no cost to themselves, whereas if they printed and donated a textbook for each subject for each grade for each person, the costs get up there. Not to mention distribution. Once a communications infrastructure is built, it becomes low cost to distribute electronic information as well.
YOU learned w/o computers because you had books. They don't have many textbooks in the poorest countries, so what are they going to learn from?
These manufactures don't care about the end price of the laptop. The MIT lab designed the project with the intent that manufacturers could profitably build them for a reasonable price. The manufacturers aren't saying that it won't happen because they won't make enough money, but because they don't have enough time.
My personal experience is that academics do not fully appreciate the amount of time and work required to make something that works in theory work in the real world. When products are brought to market, it is usually the result of years of planning, design, and development (even in the computer industry). Most academics seem to think that once the concept is developed, most of the work is done, but in reality that is a very small part of the overall process. While the MIT lab has been drumming up political support for the project, they've left most of the real work to the manufacturers they plan to contract to (they've really only designed the concept). Since it is still the bidding stage for all of this work, we are really only at the very beginning of the process. The MIT lab has given an unrealistic estimate of the amount of time the project will take. Manufacturers don't care who they work for, only that they get paid.
The free market is an excellent motivator for creating ...well, anything really, that makes a profit. As we all know, the free market and capitalism has made all kinds of wonderful toys for us. I'm definetly not complaining about those.
The problem of course is the stuff that the free market does not do so well, namely the bummer stuff that does not make a profit, namely feeding and clothing the poor, protecting the environment and minor things like that.
Some say he is made with ascii, others that he is eyeballed daily by millions. All we know is, he is known as the Sig