Fate of High-Def DVD up to Microsoft?

BlackMesaResearchFac writes "EE Times is reporting that Microsoft may have chosen a side in the ongoing optical disk war. From the article: 'several industry sources last week told EE Times that Microsoft is muscling into the optical-disk fray by leveraging its operating-system clout to bundle HD-DVD within Vista, the company's next-generation OS. There is also talk that the software giant may be planning to offer cash incentives -- in the form "coupons" -- to system vendors or retailers if they agree to support HD-DVD. Such coupons would provide "credits" or "memos" for each PC that is sold with HD-DVD inside.'"

Comments

Anti Competitive

[ackthpt]

There is also talk that the software giant may be planning to offer cash incentives -- in the form "coupons" -- to system vendors or retailers if they agree to support HD-DVD. Such coupons would provide "credits" or "memos" for each PC that is sold with HD-DVD inside.'"

I thought this was deemed illegal in the past. IIRC Microsoft was busted for kickback payments to system vendors who did their bidding, i.e. wouldn't bundle competing products on Windows installed computers. A "Coupon" wouldn't make it any different, it's an anti-competitive practice.

In October, when Microsoft and Intel Corp. announced their support for HD-DVD, Weber warned of "legal implications, if Microsoft is using its dominance in the operating system market -- virtually a monopoly -- to play favorites and hurt the competition" (see www.eet.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleI D=171202192).

With good reason.

Among familiar Microsoft tactics is to offer incentives -- promotions, discounts and credits -- to PC OEMs. If a certain percentage of an OEM's systems use Windows, Microsoft typically chips in on advertising campaigns and co-sponsors promotional events. When a PC manufacturer is living on a 3 percent margin, such market-development payments or volume-discount rebates can be make-or-break factors. Some industry observers have termed these in-kind subsidies from Microsoft "the heroin of the PC industry."

Vendors who have this incentive will not diminish their potential revenue by giving consumers a choice.

This effectively puts Microsoft's foot firmly in the door on writing the DRM, too. Of course, with their track record that means it'll be either easily cracked and/or your DVD player will become infested with worms and virii.

Expect it to go to court after it is fait accompli.

it's a new hope of return of the revenge of the menacing phantom clone empire striking back all over again.
"If I had time and a hammer, I'd track down every blue hd ray dvd and smash it"

Re:Anti Competitive

[garcia]

This effectively puts Microsoft's foot firmly in the door on writing the DRM, too. Of course, with their track record that means it'll be either easily cracked and/or your DVD player will become infested with worms and virii.

It effectively attempts to curb Sony's console dominance by making Blu-Ray next to worthless. This is the sole reason they are doing it and by leveraging their weight against PC makers, etc to attempt to harm their competition in a completely different market is the worst of it all.

Re:Anti Competitive

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't see how this is any different from what Sony is trying to do. They are going to use their dominance in the console market to try to make Blu-Ray the defacto standard. Microsoft is backing HD-DVD for the same reason. Both are equally good or bad. There is no difference.

Re:Anti Competitive

[garcia]

Microsoft is backing HD-DVD for the same reason. Both are equally good or bad. There is no difference.

While I'm sure there are backroom dealings going on w/Sony and various hardware vendors, I don't see any reports (yet) of them giving coupons and using anti-competitive tactics (which Microsoft has already been found guilty of doing in numerous arenas across the globe) to gain more marketshare for a single standard.

Microsoft *should* be supporting ALL hardware on their OS by default if they want to remain the most useful OS. They shouldn't be playing games (pun, sorry) to try and gain more support for their console's marketshare.

Re:Anti Competitive

[CaymanIslandCarpedie]

Microsoft *should* be supporting ALL hardware on their OS by default

I have a feeling it isn't that hardware that is the issue (just my speculation). But doesn't Blu-Ray use java for its interactive content system? We all know the fights and head-aches about can MS include a jvm? Is MS forced to include a jvm? What version does it have to be? etc, etc, etc? With HD-DVD I belive the interactive content is run my a MS system iHD so obviously its pretty easy for them to support. Now they don't like Sony much I guess and I'm sure that plays into it, but as far as what they OS supports I think its more of a software issue than a hardware issue.

Re:Anti Competitive

[Anonymous Coward]

While I'm sure there are backroom dealings going on w/Sony and various hardware vendors, I don't see any reports (yet) of them giving coupons and using anti-competitive tactics (which Microsoft has already been found guilty of doing in numerous arenas across the globe) to gain more marketshare for a single standard.

Sony doesn't have to resort to this because they developed both Blu-Ray and the PS3. They don't have to bribe themselves to include it. I don't want to defend Microsoft's tactics but I can understand why they are doing this if true. They already missed out on including next generation support in XBox 360, and they can't control what kind of hardware PC makers include with their systems. Millions of PS3s with Blu-Ray support will make it the defacto standard.

Microsoft *should* be supporting ALL hardware on their OS by default if they want to remain the most useful OS. They shouldn't be playing games (pun, sorry) to try and gain more support for their console's marketshare.

It will be supported the same way that optical drives are supported now. The software will come with the drive. They are not preventing Blu-Ray from working in Windows, they are simply trying to encourage vendors to include HD-DVD drives in their systems.

As for the console market, the XBox 360 has a standard DVD drive in it. This won't help Microsoft increase marketshare. Maybe I confused you when I stated that Microsoft is doing the same thing that Sony is doing.

Re:Anti Competitive

[drinkypoo]

It will be supported the same way that optical drives are supported now. The software will come with the drive. They are not preventing Blu-Ray from working in Windows, they are simply trying to encourage vendors to include HD-DVD drives in their systems.

This is not the way optical drives are supported now, and it hasn't been since DOS and Windows 3.x. All the current optical drives are supported by an ATAPI driver. They don't come with a driver, because they implement a standard.

Obligatory Office Space

[AlienGoods]

Did you get the memo?

Monopoly anybody?

[sterno]

Yeah this is a clear cut case of them using their monopoly position to undercut Sony. A part of Sony's big gamble on the PS3 is that they can establish the market dominance of BluRay for HD media. What we are witnessing here is Microsoft's counter move, using their dominance of desktops to for HD-DVD as the standard.

Who's behind the curtain?

[inphinity]

Now, granted, I don't know much about how standards like these are developed, but shouldn't this sort of far-reaching decision with industry-wide implications not be left up to one entity? Especially one with such a vested interest in its outcome, such as Microsoft?

At the same time, I sort of wonder if maybe it's better to have one source for specifications for a technology, to avoid the kind of industry war that consumed DVD+/-R's development.

Re:Who's behind the curtain?

[garcia]

Now, granted, I don't know much about how standards like these are developed, but shouldn't this sort of far-reaching decision with industry-wide implications not be left up to one entity? Especially one with such a vested interest in its outcome, such as Microsoft?

It isn't up to Microsoft. They are just "making an offer you can't refuse." By using their dominance in the PC market as leverage they are going to attempt to cut Sony out of the "next-gen" console market before they even come out of the gate.

Microsoft fucked up severely by not putting foo-format HD DVD in their console BEFORE its release like Sony apparently wants to do. So, to recover from that folly, they are trying to dominate the market BEFORE Sony can because they know that the 360 will not be able to compete if the PS3 has multiples of storage capacity built in.

Ultimately it will be up to the market but Microsoft will do whatever they can to make sure they have every unfair advantage they can.

Let's play Monopoly

[Matt Perry]

...bundle HD-DVD within Vista... the software giant may be planning to offer cash incentives -- in the form "coupons" -- to system vendors or retailers if they agree to support HD-DVD.

Putting that monopoly to use again, I see. Wasn't there supposed to be a court or someone overseeing them to prevent just such abuses?

Sony Not Toothless

[ackthpt]

It effectively attempts to curb Sony's console dominance by making Blu-Ray next to worthless. This is the sole reason they are doing it and by leveraging their weight against PC makers, etc to attempt to harm their competition in a completely different market is the worst of it all.

Sony certainly isn't toothless. As with the tiny dvd's for the PSP evidenced, they do have a large catalog of music and movie content they can release on their prefered media standard.

The question is, particularly after MS-NBC split, is the door now conveniently open for Microsoft to buy into Time/Warner or Disney/ABC to play the same leverage game? They've got the money.

Re:Sony Not Toothless

[Golias]

The question is, particularly after MS-NBC split, is the door now conveniently open for Microsoft to buy into Time/Warner or Disney/ABC to play the same leverage game? They've got the money.

Considering the recent Google deal with AOL Time/Warner, and the very cozy relationship between Disney/ABC and Apple, I think it will take more than a just few suitcases full of money to get the job done this time. Microsoft will have to offer a long-term business case for why partnering makes sense with a company which has royally shafted pretty much every last partner they ever had.

Ugh

[commo1]

I'm just as big a fan of HD over Blu-Ray as anyone, but cash incentives and coupons? From Microsoft? (OK, any big software monopoly with holds on the OS market..... wait... never mind). This is not right and this is not fair.

Re:Ugh

[QuietLagoon]

This is not right and this is not fair.

When has either of those mattered to Microsoft?

A recent comment of mine.

It's all about the Java

[Call Me Black Cloud]

Blu-Ray players will all come with a Java VM inside, and the interactive content on the discs will be in Java. MS developed the competing environment for interactive content, iHD, with Disney (and Toshiba, I believe). MS has plans to include iHD support with Vista.

So on one side you have Sun and Sony (which supports Blu-Ray) and on the other you have Microsoft and Intel. It's really not surprising the companies have lined up this way. There are feature differences as well that probably come into play, but I wouldn't expect MS to support the format that will ship with the PS3.

Re:It's all about the Java

[Anonymous Monkey]

This puts an interesting spin on the issue. Who is more evil? On the one hand we have Sony and it's DRM CD's, and a Java environment that just might be a tool of DRM and spyware. On the other hand we have Microsoft (aka The Borg), traditionally against anything OSS, a company that might use the new DVD standard to shove around the OSS community...Again, just two maybes, and just speculation, but it could be very bad for us(slashdoters) either way.

Re:It's all about the Java

[The Lynxpro]

"So on one side you have Sun and Sony (which supports Blu-Ray) and on the other you have Microsoft and Intel."

Don't forget Matsushita (Panasonic) and Apple are both on the Blu-Ray side... Although it would be in Apple's best interest to put out the feelers to the HD-DVD camp if only to bring Sony back to the table on ditching the Sony Connect online store in favor of a broad-based licensing agreement that would make iTunes the standard for the Playstation3, the PSP, all the Walkmans, and Sony Vaio computers. Not only would Apple get some serious cash, but it would also reduce the chance of an anti-trust complaint that Apple has monopolized the iPod/iTunes combo by opening the platform up to a competitor.

Not within Microsoft's power

[wombatmobile]

So what? Microsoft doesn't sell disks, it sells software. Compare this to vendors that sell entertainment content such as films and Microsoft's influence on the space is not significant.

But can't Microsoft dictate terms through choosing to support the reading of data from certain hardware formats only in its software?

Again no. Not if their customers want another format supported. TFA even points out that Microsoft can't control its OEMs behaviour:

Dell Inc., for its part, has no intention of switching its support from Blu-ray, Brian Zucker, a Dell technology strategist who sits on the Blu-Ray DVD committee, told EE Times. "The only reasons we would make a change would be if we saw significant customer demand not to back the format we have been working on," he added.

If Dell wants support for X, its status as the seller of 20% of Microsoft's operating sytems software units gives it enough clout to require Microsoft to provide support.

Or Dell could add its own support.

DOJ Settlement violation

[NullProg]

IANAL but from the article here http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2001/November/01_at_56 9.htm


  The settlement reached today accomplishes this by:

        * creating the opportunity for independent software vendors to develop products that will be competitive with Microsoft's middleware products on a function-by-function basis;
        * giving computer manufacturers the flexibility to contract with competing software developers and place their middleware products on Microsoft's operating system;
        * preventing retaliation against computer manufacturers, software developers, and other industry participants who choose to develop or use competing middleware products; and
        * ensuring full compliance with the proposed Final Judgment and providing for swift resolution of technical disputes.


Microsoft seems to be in violation of resolution two. They are also prohibited from entering exclusive agreements.

Enjoy,

Re:DOJ Settlement violation

[Bogtha]

You missed the most important bit:

The proposed Final Judgment will be in effect for a five year period and may be extended for an additional two-year period if the Court finds that Microsoft has engaged in multiple violations of the proposed Final Judgment.

So as long as Microsoft holds off on the kickbacks until November 2006, they are safe. From Wikipedia:

The currently scheduled release of the full version of Windows Vista is late 2006.

What an amazing coincidence.

I got the memo....

[digitaldc]

Did you get the memo?

Yeah...it's just that we're supporting HD-DVD in all copies of Vista before they go out now. So I'd really appreciate it if you could just remember to use HD-DVD from now on. That'd be great.

Wrong

[the computer guy nex]

"Microsoft is considering HD-DVD for the next hardware revision of the XBOX 360"

Microsoft has said no to HD-DVD inside the 360.

Reason? Games with hi-res textures have been available for under 9 gigs for awhile now on a PC. No game for this console will require the ~45gig capacity.

Microsoft is pro HD-DVD due to the DRM located within Blu-Ray. This is one isntance where we should take sides with the monopoly. HD-DVD's are the better solution for the customer.

Re:Wrong

[Troed]

Please explain the DRM differences between HD-DVD and Blu-ray.

Oh. Really?

That's what I thought as well.

(PS: You're wrong about how much room games will require in the next 4-5 years btw)

Re:Wrong

[bliSSter138]

If you for one second think that Microsoft (let that name rattle in your head for a second before you continue reading), is being altrustic here and has non-DRM consumers' best interests in mind, then you've been under the desk for a bit too long. MS has their own set of plans for DRM; if you haven't been keeping up take a quick look at any recent iteration of Windows Media Player.

I guarantee the only reason that MS isn't backing Blu-Ray, if it has anything to do with DRM, is because Sony or whomever isn't letting them in on the back-end of their technology.

If Redmond is supporting it, HD-DVD will have DRM to some degree just as Blu-Ray does.

Who builds consumer players?

[SuperKendall]

Microsoft will have no control over the final result, as they are neither the company that makes the discs consumers buy nor the company that makes the devices people will play the majority of discs on.

If Microsoft were really serious about HD-DVD they would have delay the 360 launch to include it. From where they sit now the only thing they can do is savage thier own marketshare with a dual console system with some HD-DVD units and some not.

The war is already over since people will have millions of players by way of PS3 - who will then naturally proceed to buy discs for said players since they have them, and so more discs will be made since more people are buying them in that format.

Welcome to Betaville Microsoft - population you.

Everyone needs to just relax!

[gasmonso]

Microsoft is looking at this issue like any other. Sure they may back one or the other but it's not that big of a deal. No matter what format they decide to "support", it's just a driver. If they go with HD-DVD, that means they'll just include that driver on the OS. Who cares?!?! If you buy a Blu-Ray drive, it'll ship with a driver anyways.

The real concern here is what the movie industry will support and put movies on. And of course DRM is the other big issue. But no matter who the "winner" is, it won't matter for the PC anyways as it will support both.

http://religiousfreaks.com/

Your Sig...

[d3ac0n]

It's FUBAR, not foobar. FUBAR is an acronym that stands for "F'ed Up Beyond All Recognition". Besides that, it's funnier if you spell it right. (and yes, I intentionally abbreviated the 'F' word.)

Sorry, that was just bugging me.

Re:Your Sig...

[Surt]

Actually, for a computer scientist, foobar would be the preferred spelling. For a variety of other information supporting foobar over/in addition to fubar see the following:

http://www.google.com/search?q=foobar+origin&start =0&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozi lla:en-US:official
http://slashdot.org/askslashdot/99/02/12/1433221.s html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foobar
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=100508 2400010

Re:Your Sig...

[Macdude]

<nitpick> It's FUBAR, not foobar. FUBAR is an acronym that stands for "F'ed Up Beyond All Recognition". Besides that, it's funnier if you spell it right. (and yes, I intentionally abbreviated the 'F' word.)</nitpick>

<nitpick^^2>That should be "Fucked Up Beyond All Repair". (and yes I have the balls to actually swear when I swear.)</nitpick^^2>

Re:Your Sig...

[stanmann]

I know K&R use Foo and Bar. I think I've seen it in pascal references as well.

So much momentum. Wonder if DIVX can happen again.

[Elwood P Dowd]

When DIVX was crushed it felt like a giant victory. But DIVX only had one company behind it. This time the draconian DRM will have the entire tech industry behind it. And people won't be buying self-destructing media.

I think we're fucked.

If people actually stick with their DVD drives and let HD-DVD and BluRay both die on the vine, maybe some tech companies will do the right thing. But it's an extremely long shot.

No Lord of the Rings and StarWars will decide.

[LWATCDR]

The format that they publish Lord of the Rings and StarWars on will be the format that wins. It is about software people. If they publish it in both formats then the cheapest will win.

No violation

[everphilski]

* giving computer manufacturers the flexibility to contract with competing software developers and place their middleware products on Microsoft's operating system;

They are giving incentives to HD-DVD over BlueRay, not banning BlueRay development. There is a difference between incentives and Microsoft saying no.

-everphilski-

Re:So much momentum. Wonder if DIVX can happen aga

[forkazoo]

When DIVX was crushed it felt like a giant victory. But DIVX only had one company behind it. This time the draconian DRM will have the entire tech industry behind it. And people won't be buying self-destructing media.

I think we're fucked.

If people actually stick with their DVD drives and let HD-DVD and BluRay both die on the vine, maybe some tech companies will do the right thing. But it's an extremely long shot.

I think that with the emerging trend of online distribution, media formats may start to become fairly uninteresting. My only interest in Blu Ray will be as a backup drive. I'll just have a PC plugged into my TV to play content, so I won't need a High-Def set top box media player of any sort. In a few years, we'll all have an iPodHD, or some equivalent to carry around our video.

Re:Sony will still be first to market

[sethadam1]

Wait a second! We're BUYING from Sony again? I thought everyone was going to stay away from the PS3 in the first place??

Re:thank god for competition

[JWW]

Does your Internet connection have the bandwidth to stream HD video in real time?

Not in the United States for the foreseeable future... But other places are going to love it.

Re:thank god for competition

[forkazoo]

Does your Internet connection have the bandwidth to stream HD video in real time?

Mine has the bandwidth to download an hour's worth of HD to watch tomorrow night. Really, that's good enough for a lot of people. It's good enough for me. Many folks keep insisting that all people always want to watch what's on TV *right now.* Sure, there are some who consider that to be the number one feature. Others are completely fine with queuing up a bunch of downloads, and having a collection of other shows already downloaded and ready to watch. This is basically the exact same model as Tivo. As long as I can start watching *something* right now, and I can watch it from the beginning, on my schedule, without worrying about being interrupted because I can pause it... Well, for many people, that trumps the inconvenience of having to wait until tomorrow to watch "tonight's" program. Just watch yesterday's program and be at peace. I'm doing stuff tonight, so I'll probably start a download tonight when I get home, and I'll have it ready for me to watch tomorrow. No instant-real time streaming needed, and I'll be completely sated for my media fix. (I need to ind out what happens next in Bleach!)

MS or Sony, who is more evil?

[SteveXE]

1st off how is it illegal for Microsoft to promote a piece of hardware they DO NOT EVEN OWN? How does it further their "monopoly"? Next, 2 months ago everyone was crying about Blu-Ray's extreme DRM, and while HD-DVD has DRM as well its not as bad as what Sony is trying to shove down our throats. The difference is today MS is doing something to help the better standard so you all bitch because it must be bad.

Have we all forgoten about rootkits? Whats worse, MS giving out a freaking coupon or Sony using their DRM to cripple our Blu-Ray players because we tried to watch something they didnt like, or because we took a screw out of the case, or because we lent a friend the latest movie we bought, or because they just damn well feel like it.

Topic answer is Sony.

NOT sole reason. Microsoft chose side ages ago.

[CarpetShark]

Umm, I don't know where this article gets the idea that microsoft may have chosen a side. Blu-Ray uses Java. Let me spell that out for everyone: cross-platform, not .NET, not media tech. owned by MS. Bill himself is reported to have been shouting about that in Sony's offices.

So, while MS may well want to crush PS3, I think we need to remember that consoles are probably just a way of getting MS and their Media ownership sold to the next generation. What bill cares about is owning the tools that run the content, not having successful individual products like X-Boxes or having the best NG-DVD format.

Re:pft

[iluvcapra]

Sony already has good usage of blueray, take a look at the broadcast market, their XDCams

Well, to this day, when I order dupes of projection reels I get them as Beta SP. Of course, they have to be dubbed from there to VHS in order to be played on any VCR any normal person owns.

Professional adoption != consumer adoption.

Of course, many of the studios have come out in favor of blu-Ray (after some dithering), as well as Sony and Apple. It's completely possible that HD-DVD will become the standard on the desktop but Blu-Ray will become the standard in your TV hutch, putting a knife in livingroom convergence but guarenteeing everybody their own happy little fiefdom and making ripping a thing of the past, except for the specially equipped individual who happens to own a soon-to-be-freakish blue-ray computer drive.

Re:Sony will still be first to market

[lucifig]

Yeah, it worked with them for Betamax!

Or that much harder to crack?

[ImaLamer]

It effectively attempts to curb Sony's console dominance by making Blu-Ray next to worthless.

It seems to me that if Sony goes with Blu-Ray and all the PC's out in the wild won't have it, it will be harder to copy their games. Mod chips always come out, encryption is cracked, but not being able to produce discs with the proper format/standard will halt copying efforts.

Of course it isn't the end all solution to piracy. Every SEGA Dreamcast game out has been copied and distributed, but you had to download the game (1+ Gigabyte) through a serial cable first. Using a proprietary technology kept people from renting games just to copy them. Assuming that the PS3 doesn't allow you to rip a game and upload it through the controller/USB/Firewire ports and that you can't fit a PS3 game on a DVD-R then they have got a winner.

Just imagine it another way: Protocol dead zones.

I had to create an network for a school that kept teacher's workstation and servers separate from the rest of the network. No student was allowed to even attempt a log in. The easiest way to do this was to use Novell Netware 6 (eDirectory) and IPX/SPX for all teacher/back-end communications. No student workstations were supplied with the drivers to use IPX (no student could install drivers, software, etc). Even if they had a rouge Linux install with IPX ready to go, let's say, the switch had IPX/SPX routing disabled for those ports. The only switch ports that would transmit IPX were the ones we told it to (of course all switches are kept in locked cabinets and so forth).

Same theory here for Blu-Ray. If the only place it is ever seen is the PS3 then Microsoft helped the PS3 become more "pirate-proof". (Of course, it could be argued that no PS3 game piracy may hurt Sony and so forth...)

Besides, who is the consumer electronics giant here, Sony or Microsoft?

Re:Or that much harder to crack?

[squiggleslash]

Every SEGA Dreamcast game out has been copied and distributed, but you had to download the game (1+ Gigabyte) through a serial cable first.

Conversely though, the proprietary route does seem to be working on the GameCube which has seen little (if any) piracy.

The major issue with the Dreamcast, I guess, is that it was semi-open, still supporting a number of backdoors, including the ability to read from regular CDs in hardware.

Re:Or that much harder to crack?

[Kohath]

It seems to me that if Sony goes with Blu-Ray and all the PC's out in the wild won't have it, it will be harder to copy their games.

In other news, Pioneeer officially announced their BRD-101A Blu-ray burner today.

How long before players doing Blu-ray/HD-DVD?

[drasfr]

I mean, yes, how long before we see players that can do both?

After all... when DVD-Rs came out, and DVD+R. No one was doing both, suddently (I don't remember the history in detail, who), but someone came out (sony?) with a player that was doing both...

and now, what? Well, don't they all do both? or all? DVD-R/+R/-RW/+RW? It's been a while since I have seen a player/recorder that do only one format...

Why can't the same thing happen for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD?

Sure it is a license thing... like it was for DVDs... You pay? You got the right to do it. Is there anything in the agreements they have that will prevent both format to co-exist in the same device? I doubt...

Combo HR-DVD/Blu-ray. Sure it might be expensive at first. The technology seems to be quite different for both format. But we have seen more difficult things happen

Any bet on this? When?

Re:That's just great

[6*7]

"Neither format takes full use of compression to allow more video content to be stored on an individual disc; if you look at WMV-HD you can fit HD movies on a conventional DVD,"

Consider the processing power required to play back that content. Most of those cheap standalone playback devices don't have even enough power to handle the "very complex" GMC algorithm in XviD, an xbox isn't even powerfull enough to play H264 (unless one doesn't use all the nice features that make it worth encoding to it in the first place).

"the best way to prevent piracy is to sell your product for a price that people are willing to pay"

Why pay if you can get it for free?

We see how well it worked for firewire and DVDram

[porkThreeWays]

As I remember it, Windows XP was at the threshold of new technologies. I think that's right around the time USB 2.0 was coming out and the ability for home users to burn DVD's...

Microsoft favored DVD-ram as its DVD format and Firewire over USB 2.0. We all see how much effect they had on those outcomes.

Hardware makers have more say. What the OS supports out of box is almost irrevalent. What ever hardware you purchase is going to usually have drivers and software for at least Windows anyway. There are many factors as to who's going to win this war. Microsoft is on that list, but they are like number 348.

Don't forget the Disney factor

[hanshotfirst]

If what you say is true (unverified by /me), then you have mentioned the differentiating factor that will give the battle to HD-DVD/MS/etc.... Disney.

Consumers ultimately don't care what the format is or which Evil Corporation's pockets they fill. What they do care about is whether Timmy can play the new Winnie-the-Pooh game or Susie can print her Disney Princesses coloring pages. If these new titles and the re-re-re-release of Sleeping Beauty is only on HD-DVD then people will make sure they have the player that fills their children's demands for More of the Mouse.

Disney and MS agreeing on one format will make it difficult for any competing standard-candidate to last in the long run.

Re:Someone please break it down for me

[7Prime]

Everyone forgets the BIGGEST reason why BetaMax failed: STORAGE CAPACITY. It's simple: VHS has the ability to hold well over 2 hours of video, BetaMax can hold 90mins MAXIMUM: one medium is more than a feature length film, one is less. Don't get me wrong, for quality, BetaMax is far superior, the TV station where I work, uses BetaCAM exclusively, I don't think they even own a VHS recorder. But when it came time for the film industry to decide whether to put E.T. on one tape or two, it's pretty obvious why they chose to get behind VHS instead.

Here are some other obvious media wins:

CD vs. Minidisc - MiniDisc comes out quite a bit after CDs are already beginning to be entrenched, they hold less data (bad for use as computer media), use shoddy (at the time) audio compression, and their ingrained ability to be re-written worries the recording industry.

MP3 vs. Ogg - MP3s come out well before Ogg, become a household name (thanks to Metallica and a bunch of silly, high profile lawsuits), and require MUCH less processing power (ie: don't sap battery life on portable media players). Ogg Vorbis, though sounding better, has one of the dumbest sounding names on the face of the planet (a name can make or break a product). Let's think about this: "ogg", for me, conjures up thoughts of cavement beating their chests and yelling "Ooog, Ogg, Bunga!". "Vorbis" is the name of an evil, sadistic cleric from a Terry Prachet novel. In the end, strangely enough, it's AAC that wins the day.

In this case, it's reversed. Blu-Ray is quite a bit higher capacity, and is at least capable of being superior in EVERY way (that is, unless Microsoft is successful in sabotaging it's usability) to HD-DVD.

I know some people are going to laugh, but Blu-Ray has one other thing going for it: a catchy name. This WILL make a huge difference, and may be even big enough to be a deciding factor. "HD-DVD" is clunky to say, and will sound, to most consumers, like a new media based on old technology (think "Double Density 3.5" disks). If people are going to spend their money on upgrading their media, they're going to want to feel like they're actually really getting something new out of it. Blu-Ray is a sexy name, it's not inherently "techy", and will fit right in to the mainstream, it's the kind of name people will WANT to use in day-to-day conversation, because it just sounds cool. Word of mouth is extremely important. When I hear the worlds "Blue Ray" I think of some futuristic sci-fi laser that, like, kills people, or at the very least, will read my mind.

I seriously think the name alone could have a huge impact.

Why oh why do they listen to MS

[dalek_killer]

I think that MS would be the last company that anyone should listen to when it comes to setting standards since MS can't set any standards that work right.

Re:Sony will still be first to market

[Trogre]

And in your crusade against Sony, do you realise that you're effectively handing Microsoft the game console market on a silver platter?

What interesting times we live in.

repeat offense

[SethJohnson]

They are going to use their dominance in the console market to try to make Blu-Ray the defacto standard.

Sony doesn't hold a monopoly in the console industry. The market is pretty well divided among the XboX, Gamecube, and Playstation. With each generation of console, it's a wide-open opportunity for any participant to take the lead.

The anti-trust law that Microsoft was convicted of breaking was that they leveraged a monopoly in one industry (Computer Operating Systems) to suppress competition in another (Web Browsers). Other posters on this topic are proposing that this is a repeat offense.

Joel Klein-- "In this specific case the evidence is overwhelming that Microsoft was unable to compete on the merits and decided in its own words "to leverage its monopoly" in order to "make people" use their browser."

Seth

Re:OT - Holy schneikies

[MikeFM]

I'm an addict! ;) Seriously I would like to own a legal copy of every movie ever made. I have a thing for books too. I used to buy hundreds of books a year and read about one per day. Now I buy maybe a book every week as I spend to much time working and need up-to-date info so I read online rather than buying tech books.

I watch a couple movies a day usually. I can watch movies while working so it's good. Usually I get new movies in a burst of 4 or 5 at once every few days.

It really makes me mad though when I can't backup or change around what is mine. I like removing menus, ads, etc from my movies. Why should they be able to stop me?

Re:Sony Not Toothless or "Bluetoothless"

[gerf]

Remember when Windows XP came out, oh so many years ago? They decided to support Bluetooth at that time as their default wireless network, rather than 802.11b? While I realize that there are people who use Bluetooth, I'm not thinking that it's a very large number, at least compared to 802.11

Personally, I'd like to see people offering video in Theora format. Online, or in cheap promo packages... whatever. I realize it won't be a new HD/DVD format, but it'd sure be nice to see more of.

Re:thank god for competition

[doubledoh]

And of course that fails to acknowledge that these "25 gig" movies are going to be compressed with the latest comprssion algorithm into 4.3 gigs or less so we can fit them on standard single layer dvds. Hell, I download 42 minutes of HDTV rips with 5.1 sound and it comes in at a nice 699 MB--just perfect for a plain ol CD and it looks GREAT. A movie with the same quality is only 2 or 3 times as long...so it's obvious that the downloads won't be as massive as the industry hopes they will be. It will only take ONE person to rip each new HDDVD/bluray disc even if it has to be through an analog hole, and the rest, will be history.