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Windows Bumps Unix as Top Server OS

Ivan writes " Windows narrowly bumped Unix in 2005 to claim the top spot in server sales for the first time, according to a new report from IDC. Computer makers sold $17.7 billion worth of Windows servers worldwide in 2005 compared with $17.5 billion in Unix servers, IDC analyst Matthew Eastwood said of the firm's latest Server Tracker market share report. "It's the first time Unix was not top overall since before the Tracker started in 1996.""

43 of 514 comments (clear)

  1. How long by EraserMouseMan · · Score: 3, Interesting

    do you think it will last? Is Windows picking up momentum or is Unix losing momentum?

    1. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Maybe Windows servers just got more expensive, or Unix servers got less expensive. Perhaps a better study would talk about volume or usage -- or longevity. Perhaps Unix servers from 2002 simply lasted longer than Windows servers, so the companies using Unix didn't have to upgrade after 3 years.

    2. Re:How long by PhrostyMcByte · · Score: 4, Insightful
      There are two ways I see to look at this:

      1. They say "$x billion worth" - I'd assume Windows servers are a little more expensive than *nix servers due to more licensing. The article doesn't touch on the actual number of servers sold. I've not had experience buying enterprise servers though...
      2. With many educational facilities teaching .NET in the past few years, it makes sense to see a bump in servers which might host ASP.NET. That will only increase, and I bet we'll see even more Windows servers this year.

      I guess the cause is probably somewhere in between.
    3. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I buy servers for my company all the time. A proprietry Unix box costs between 6 and 60 times as much as the average Intel box. Whether the Intel box has Windows or Linux makes no difference - we pay for both, and it is an insignificant slice of the cost.

      How many Windows boxes where replaced with Linux last year where I work? Answer: None. How many Unix systems where replaced with Linux? Answer: Hundreds.

      This is why Windows/Linux eats into HP-UX/AIX/Solaris market share.

    4. Re:How long by Lumpy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      How about the 12 servers we bought from dell without an OS that had linux installed on them? I know those were not counted. Or the 100+ servers acting as mpeg2 video routers in the headends that were also bought without an OS that has linux installed as well.

      I bet the number of intel based servers without an OS sold is far greater than the number sold with an OS.

      Unless they release ALL the data it's a worthless study. have dell release all server sales with and without OS. without OS will dominate nearly 2 to 1.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    5. Re:How long by zootm · · Score: 4, Informative

      How about the 12 servers we bought from dell without an OS that had linux installed on them? I know those were not counted. Or the 100+ servers acting as mpeg2 video routers in the headends that were also bought without an OS that has linux installed as well.

      Linux was listed in the ranking seperately (it came third, according to the article). Linux is not UNIX, so even if you bought it with Linux installed, it wouldn't have changed the relative positions of the two operating systems.

      I agree that Linux would have come higher if the eventual OS installs of servers with no OS installs had been recorded, though.

    6. Re:How long by slashdotnickname · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Perhaps a better study would talk about volume or usage -- or longevity.

      Why would a market share report, whose audience is investors, want to report on that?

      Sure, Unix boxes last longer... plenty of studies have established that... but these people are tracking sales figures.

    7. Re:How long by fitten · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This is why Windows/Linux eats into HP-UX/AIX/Solaris market share.

      Years ago we knew that the first casualty of Linux would be the proprietary Unix companies. The workstations first and then the servers. Although Linux is advocated as a Windows replacement most of the time, it's an even better Unix replacement. As Linux improves, it will just hurt Unix more. A friend works at a place where they've replaced almost all their Sun servers with Linux servers except the cluster of V880s that they have to still run certain software packages (Solaris only binaries). I could easily see them replacing those boxes with multi-cpu/core Opteron boxes (maybe even from Sun) running Linux if they had that software available. This is a place that has purchased multiple Sun E10Ks and multiple SGI O2Ks and the like in the past. Now, they are mostly Linux except where they have entrenched software or have issues where they need large systems (32p and 64p) and Linux doesn't work on them for some reason or work well on them.

    8. Re:How long by Zeinfeld · · Score: 4, Interesting
      I agree that Linux would have come higher if the eventual OS installs of servers with no OS installs had been recorded, though.

      The researchers claim to have adjusted for that effect. Most servers are sold without an O/S because even machines bought as Windows boxes are likely to have the O/S loaded under a site license.

      The non-Linux market for UNIX continues to shrink. As it does machines move from expensive proprietary platforms like HP, Sun or AIX to commodity Intel/AMD boxes. This means that Linux is effectively handicapped against the traditional UNIX varieties in this race, as is Microsoft of course.

      Servers have been getting cheaper for years, the server market changes as a result. Forty years ago servers were mostly $1 million plus mainframes. Today its a definition thing, you can buy a 'server' for $100 in Frys and hang a printer off it.

      All the growth in the market comes at the bottom end as small businesses start to invest in infrastructure. A law office with ten employees using Windows XP is going to buy a Windows server, end of story. An ISP with 100 Linux boxes doing hosted web is going to buy Linux for machines 101, 102,...

      I don't think the survey is actually measuring real transitions. There is no compelling reason to move from Linux to Windows or from Windows to Linux if you have installed base. There is a huge cost incentive to move from proprietary UNIX to Linux. There is also a major incentive to introduce Windows Server systems to provide support infrastructure for networks of Windows machines.

      There are relatively few areas of overlap between Windows and Linux. Both can host Web sites, but once you have developed active server pages you are locked into Windows. Both can host a mail server, but people do not buy Exchange as just a mail server, the calendar features are the real value.

      --
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      Try http://dotcrimeManifesto.com/
    9. Re:How long by Schraegstrichpunkt · · Score: 3, Funny

      Because most Linux systems are based on GNU, and GNU's Not Unix! ;-P

    10. Re:How long by eneville · · Score: 3, Funny

      Many people usually talk about these systems by calling them "*nix".

      I don't like *nix, its not a correct abreviation, since Linux is not spelt with any match for *nix. I would prefer it if people generally used:

      *n?x, or .+n.{1}x, which correctly matches linux and unix.

      So, are we counting BSD as Unix?

    11. Re:How long by smoker2 · · Score: 3, Informative
      But basically, *nix servers outsold windows servers by $5.1 billion (that's UNIX and LINUX combined).

      So I guess there is a little breathing space yet ;-)

      Interestingly, if you RTFA and scroll down to the other links, you'll see "windows leads server OS pack for first time" last november !

      dupe or astroturf - you decide ...

  2. Sheer number of small servers by PIPBoy3000 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    This probably reflects the massive number of smaller servers that are out there, which often have Windows installed. In our organization, Windows servers tend to have a single application on them (typically by request of the vendor), while our Unix and AS/400 servers tend to have dozens of applications on them.

    The irony is that Windows applications often "don't play well together", making it almost a requirement that they get a dedicated piece of hardware. As a reward for this problem, their rankings are boosted.

    1. Re:Sheer number of small servers by Flying+pig · · Score: 3, Interesting
      one word: VMWare

      two acronyms: ESX,GSX

      that should start to get the numbers down.

      --
      Pining for the fjords
    2. Re:Sheer number of small servers by archen · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I work for a small business, and let me tell you - small servers are like the freaking PLAGUE with windows. Every solution vendor wants their OWN server to themselves. I laugh every time I see MS ads talking about consolidation. That's news to me. The most humorous ad I've seen this year was from IBM where this guy is talking about "These generic servers, they keep multiplying... they must have a queen" -- too true.

      I've since stopped even trying to fight for "two things on one server". I've just seen them fall over dead too many times because of a crappy application. Simple upgrades become a nightmare when one application needs one thing, and the other wants a different version.

      The FreeBSD/Linux boxes on the network do a TON of different things, and only require different boxes if they are in different physical locations, or the application scales past one smaller server. As I've said many times before, MS's biggest friend and worst enemy are all of these crappy software solutions that require Windows.

  3. Servers by Ford+Prefect · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What about server hardware sold without an operating system?

    --
    Tedious Bloggy Stuff - hooray?
    1. Re:Servers by Syberghost · · Score: 3, Informative

      What about server hardware sold without an operating system?

      It's counted. They're using a combination of methods, remember, and that includes asking those surveyed "how many servers did you buy without an operating system, and what operating system did you put on them?"

    2. Re:Servers by GuyverDH · · Score: 3, Insightful

      According to some *inside* information that I have, several vendors were required to *buy* MS licenses, regardless of which OS the customer was requesting to have pre-loaded on the hardware.

      So - for every box purchased, pre-loaded with Linux, it also generated a *sale* for Microsoft.

      Now, it's been a year or two since I last checked into this, so I cannot say whether or not this *agreement* is still in force. However, I would not be surprised to see this still be the case.

      --
      Who is general failure, and why is he reading my hard drive?
    3. Re:Servers by ajs318 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      ..... Which is why I make a point, anytime I am forced to buy software I will not be using, of "deregistering" my purchase. I send a letter to the vendor stating in no uncertain terms that I do NOT accept the EULA offered with the software and that I will consider my rights violated, with the Usual Consequences, if I am counted amongst its registered users.

      --
      Je fume. Tu fumes. Nous fûmes!
  4. Well... by endrue · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Okay - but are they equal in sale price?

    What weighs more, a ton of bricks or a ton of feathers? They both weigh the same but you do end up with a lot more feathers.

    --
    I meta-moderate because I care.
  5. Article seems misleading by Fr05t · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I have not RTFA, but I would guess the reason MS beat Unix is because Linux is picking up. I'm curious how much of this is real 'gain' for MS, vs Unix 'loss'.

    1. Re:Article seems misleading by squiggleslash · · Score: 5, Informative
      That's correct:
      And in another first, fast-growing Linux took third place, bumping machines with IBM's mainframe operating system, z/OS. Linux server sales grew from $4.3 billion in 2004 to $5.3 billion in 2005, while mainframes dropped from $5.7 billion to $4.8 billion over the same period, Eastwood said.
      The major issue here is that GNU/Linux is growing in marketshare.

      Probably worth adding that in many shops I know, every new server-type application that requires Windows gets its own Windows box, whereas people seem to understand the concept of "multitasking" with Unix and GNU based platforms, which is another thing that probably distorts the figures. That is, suppose my employer sells "StatisticStats" to Target, WalMart, and K-Mart. If we've written it as a web application, we'll deploy it one-(or-more)-CPUs-per-customer with all three (ie three servers) if we're doing it under IIS, whereas we'll centralize it unless it really starts becoming a resource hog if we deploy it under GNU/Linux.

      I don't really understand why, except in that Windows does a lot to hide the underlying system to the point that it becomes easier just to throw a new box at each job than spend the time getting the different parts to work. It shouldn't be like this, IIS is pretty versatile, it just... is.

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
  6. It just goes to show ... by Lemurmania · · Score: 5, Funny

    Sometimes you want to patch, reboot and repeat. Stability is so *boring*.

  7. Microsoft's favourite trick... by realnowhereman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Way to go Microsoft! In the Window's versus Linux war, sales is the comparison you will always win!

    Could it possibly be that Unix server sales are down because Unix servers (non-free) are being replaced with Linux servers (free)? How surprising would it then be that the dollar value spent on servers is lower for Unix?

    --
    Carpe Daemon
    1. Re:Microsoft's favourite trick... by NutscrapeSucks · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Microsoft actually makes products designed for small businesses and storefront integration shops, whereas Linux distributors focus almost exclusively on the Enterprise Fortune 500 market. MS-SBS is pretty much a "install-and-go" type product for single-server environments, There's also tons of training and marketing support for the integrator.

      I don't think there's any equivalent in the Linux world that doesn't require a lot of *nix talent for customization. (And the actual amount of *nix talent in the small biz market is practically zero.)

      So, as long as the Linux world is so focused on Wall Street, it shouldn't be a suprise that Windows is outselling them on Main Street.

      --
      Whenever I hear the word 'Innovation', I reach for my pistol.
  8. not necessarily by lucas+teh+geek · · Score: 5, Insightful

    doesnt this really just suggest that windows servers need regular replacing to keep doing their job while old unix hardware keeps doing its job just fine?

    --
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    1. Re:not necessarily by Fished · · Score: 4, Interesting
      I have a Solaris web server with an uptime of 2436 days. It's last outage was when we moved it from one location to another. 'nuff said.


      (Yes, it should have been patched, etc., but as it turns out this server is running Solaris 2.5.1, and everyone forgot it was there. the amazing thing is that it has run for over 6 YEARS without a reboot.)

      --
      "He who would learn astronomy, and other recondite arts, let him go elsewhere. " -- John Calvin, commenting on Genesis 1
    2. Re:not necessarily by Lee_in_KC · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "doesnt this really just suggest that windows servers need regular replacing to keep doing their job while old unix hardware keeps doing its job just fine?"

      No.

      If you are making a living in IT you know that you are still replacing servers as they roll off warranty and as they are fully depreciated. I'd no more put one of my Oracle databases on an old Linux machine than an old Windows machine. Requirements always go up, not down. Saying you can run Linux on older hardware is a misleading statement.

      I suppose if a company is using Linux because it was free, or using UNIX of some form because it "runs on older hardware" they get what they deserve anyway - that's not the way to run an IT shop.

      The change is likely due to the increase in blade-type systems which are well suited to a Windows environment. You can use a UNIX server environment and have interoperability with the end-users' desktop systems and the domain security model, but when you can just plug another cheap blade in and not have to worry about a third party authentication scheme, it makes Windows a pretty easy choice. Some of the arguments posted about not being able to run more than one app are not a shortcoming in the OS but rather a shortcoming in the developers. Plus, who cares if you need 5x$1000 blades to run 5 apps on Windows? It would cost more than $5000 to get the same sort of horsepower in a UNIX box.

      Tools my friends, these are just tools. They don't know or care if you religiously defend them. Your IT careers will be more successful if you learn to use a variety of tools, each what is appropriate for the job.

    3. Re:not necessarily by ahodgson · · Score: 3, Funny

      what would a windows machine do that would be unused for 5 years

      Send out a LOT of spam.

  9. Linux? by Rob+T+Firefly · · Score: 3, Informative

    From TFA:

    And in another first, fast-growing Linux took third place, bumping machines with IBM's mainframe operating system, z/OS. Linux server sales grew from $4.3 billion in 2004 to $5.3 billion in 2005, while mainframes dropped from $5.7 billion to $4.8 billion over the same period, Eastwood said.

    "Sales" being the operative word. How would one fit the free Linux options into this equation, I wonder?

  10. Unix != Linux by AntiDragon · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The numbers - they make me sleepy...

    But note that the article mentions the growth of both Linux _and_ Windows. This is really about the ongoing decline of pure UNIX mainfarmes - something we've all been aware of for years.

    The fact that Windows OS now outnumbers UNIX boxes is neither suprising nor noteworthy. They've been chipping away at the server market for ages. Bound to happen eventually.

    But what I would be more interested in is out of all these switchers, what's the ratio that switch to Linux compared to Windows? Linux growth is faster (Upgrades along the Windows path don't count, we're talking complete platform migration) I believe. But naturally the title of the article gives enough bias to encourage readers to miss that little tidbit. Or maybe using the phrase "Windows beats Unix" is the journalistic equivalent of shouting "Fire!" when it comes to grabbbing attention... :D

    --
    "...So I hung back and lurked. For 18 months. Can't beat a good old-fashioned lurking."
  11. IDC Server Study by NutscrapeSucks · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It seems like this study gets published about every two weeks on Slashdot, and everyone has misconceptions about it.

    The funny thing is that people's reactions are entirely based on the headline. If Slashdot runs the story as "Linux Server Revenue Up!", half the comments are about Microsoft going out of business or whatever. If they run the larger Windows numbers in the headline, everyone complains.

    Anyway -- Here's a laundry list of objections that will no doubt appear:

    + This study doesn't count the servers I have running Gentoo/Debian/etc
    -- Most of the revenue reported is actually hardware, so yes it does

    + How would they know what I'm running on my servers? I didn't get a preinstalled OS
    -- User surveys, statistical methods, etc. It's not an exact count.

    + My *nix servers have 234 CPUs and run more applications than my Windows servers
    -- Because the survey counts $$$ and not CPU or box counts, this sorta works itself out, but I guess this is valid.

    + We put Linux on our i486-33 Servers
    -- Who cares? IDC doesn't, they're counting new server revenue.

    --
    Whenever I hear the word 'Innovation', I reach for my pistol.
  12. Re:I have some numbers... by jimicus · · Score: 5, Interesting

    We purchased five brand new Dell rackmountable servers last month. When we got them, we burned in some linux and threw the windows disks in the trash...

    Seeing as Dell doesn't force you to buy an operating system with their servers, why did you bother buying them in the first place?

  13. In other words... by WetCat · · Score: 3, Funny

    A number of dinosaurs is being surrounded with a lot of mammals...

  14. Sales != Usage by rtblmyazz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Folks, don't confuse sales with usage. There's no accurate way to count Linux sales. Even if you count commercial distro sales, it still can't reflect true Linux usage. Take a deep breath and understand what the statistic is saying.

    { Waiting for Microsoft evil empire conspiracy posts... }

    --
    Slashdot = alt.religion.windows.mpaa.riaa.sucks
  15. Free servers by jamesl · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Maybe its because Sun is giving away servers. For free. No cost. And each free server would add ... let me think ... ummm ... zero dollars to the total.
    http://blogs.sun.com/roller/page/jonathan/20051218 /

    Maybe not.

  16. inevitable rise by DeveloperAdvantage · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Microsoft's success on the server side was unavoidable for a number of reasons:

    1. They dominate the desktop, which gives them excellent exposure to all the business leaders who actually make the decisions about what software to purchase.

    2. Their products are reasonably stable (although individual applications sometimes crash, like Outlook, my desktop, Windows XP Pro, hasn't blue screened in a long time!). All the patches are quite inconvenient too.

    3. They have a huge amount of money to put into their development tools and .NET platform. They can acquire alot of smart people who will do good work for them.

    4. The huge increases in performance available on a simple "desktop" servers, say compared with 5 years ago, has enabled fairly complex applications to be run on them. (This is also helps linux grow). 5 years ago a person who would have suggested putting Oracle on windows would get laughed at, now at least if people laugh it is not as loud or as long.

    5. Microsoft knows how to profit from software, whereas many of the unix companies counted on making profits from hardware. Not a good business to be in when cost keeps falling so drastically for a given level of performance.

    It has taken them a long time to come this far, I think longer than most people anticipated, but now they have achieved a significant level of success.

    --
    FREE - Java, J2EE and Ajax Audiobooks for Software Developers - www.DeveloperAdvantage.com
  17. Ballmer's Comments on the issue... by BlueScreenOfTOM · · Score: 5, Funny

    Upon hearing the news, Steve Ballmer was happy to hear that his long-thought-out plan to Fucking Kill(TM) UNIX was well underway. When he asked what was next, his advisers told him he'd have to wait, as the database of things to Fucking Kill(TM) had grown too large for Windows to handle so it had to be converted to a UNIX box.
    Steve Ballmer is now in the process of Fucking Kill(TM)ing his entire staff.

  18. Absolutely true, apples to oranges... by tizzyD · · Score: 3, Informative

    It is incredibly difficult to produce a "market" leader measure without some consideration to the way that the market is measured. Fundamentally, that method determines the leader. Consider the obvious:

    • If you measure by units sold in a particular month, you would miss a sizable chunk of the market. How? Well, for nearly every 4 years, every system I installed at SMBs (small to mid-size businesses) was either Debian or Gentoo. As such, there was no direct cost associated with those units, but they were the foundations of many applications, file and print services, email services, directory services, databases, etc. More and more, as much of the functionality of a file and print server is commoditized, it can be handled more cost effectively by Linux, Samba, and other OS apps. Therefore, since these items incur no revenue in the market to a company, they would not be counted. Thus the distortion.
    • If you consider units deployed, you have a difficult data mining challenge. How do you collect the vast amounts of data? As a researcher at times, you'd have to subscribe a number of organizations--we're talking hundreds--and then over the span of years, see what their deployment considerations are. From that measure, you can more accurately determine the statistically valid (within 5% perhaps) measure of deployed systems, more accurately demonstrating a market. It's a market, but in a different way, that is, for ancilliary products and services, upgrades, etc.
    • If you measure a market by sales, you distort the market by not considering all forms of distributed products. When I install a MS system, there typically is required a number of ancilliary products that must be installed, including things like SQL Server (to hold the LDAP store). Are these sales counted as part of the market? Without Active Directory, you almost can't do anything else--SharePoint, Exchange, etc. Therefore, it is almost a component of the OS. On a comparable *nix, you would simply use a compliant LDAP system, but then, you would not consider it part of the OS. Considering the LDAP may be from another company, it further distorts the true market.

    The market measure should be considered a dubious statistic, much like a political one. Raising the overall spending on education means nothing. Raising the overall spending per student, that means something. If you raise overall spending per student in constant dollars (inflation adjusted dollars), now you are really producing an accurate measure. The fact that most people can't understand basic comparisons--read the book Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos--leads to this fallacy of a measurement.

    --
    ...tizzyd
  19. Neither by millahtime · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The idea here is sales. This does not talk about usage, swithing, or anything else.

    So, all of the free downloads and installs are not counted here. Windows had a lot of sales, unix lost some and Linux increased in sales. That's dollars and cents not usage.

    With all of the free solaris downloads, linux downloads, and BSD downloads it's no suprise that unix purchases are going down. Why pay for it if you can get it free?

  20. No, this is the reason for the shift by typical · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Look at the numbers. They are *dollar values*. They are not "number of installed servers this year". There's a reason for that.

    You know whose lunch Linux has been eating? Solaris's. AIX's. HP/UX's.

    You know how much a typical Solaris deployment with commercial servers would have cost? Right. $$$.

    You know how much a typical *Linux* server costs? Right. In most cases, nothing. Sure, you can get Red Hat Enterprise and use a commercial Apache replacement and a commercial ssh, but that isn't what most Linux servers I'm aware of are running.

    This has been making the dollar size of the market drop like a stone. That says nothing about amount of deployments. That just says that Sun and friends are bringing a lot less money home than they used to, and it's staying with the people who are using the servers.

    "Windows Bumps Unix as Top Server OS"? Hardly. "Windows Bumps Unix as Most Expensive Server OS", perhaps.

    --
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  21. Re:not momentum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    In fact, Windows XP still supports installation on a fat filesystem, so even in the 2005 you can be faced with truncated filenames.

    (a) Did you miss the memo? It's 2006 now.
    (b) Anybody who installs XP on FAT deserves to be shot. There's been no good reason to use anything but NTFS in Windows since 1999.
    (c) FAT supports long filenames anyway. No application written since 1995 is even going to look for truncated filenames.

    In fact, if I remember correctly, I think that even when you install XP on a NTFS filesystem, the operative system generates automatically truncated filenames, even if just to preserve compatibility with old msdos apps (which work under a emulated environment in xp, but they still need to be able to use the available files and directories in the filesystem)

    So either you don't use microsoft operative systems, or you don't use them beyond of IE and explorer.exe


    The only way I can get that statement to make any sense at all is if I assume that you are under the impression that the only programs that exist for Microsoft operating systems are IE, Explorer, and MS-DOS applications.

    I personally have been running Win2k since 1999, and the only times I have used truncated filenames in that time have been when I'm ssh'ing in from a Linux box and can't be bothered to figure out how to tweak the quoting so that the Unix shell will cope with the spaces in my paths.

  22. TV Killed the Radio Star by Gary+W.+Longsine · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Years ago we knew that the first casualty of Linux would be the proprietary Unix companies. The workstations first and then the servers.
    This seems to be conventional wisdom around these parts, but it's not backed up by evidence. The UNIX vendors that have died to date have nearly all been killed by inept management, including the next one expected to kick off any day now, SGI.

    Of course, they had some assistance from early Windows marketing hype and a lazy trade press that believed that Windows would take over the server market in 1992 or 1994 and continued to believe it for over a decade despite overwhelming evidence that the product wasn't ready for the enterprise server room.

    And Linux has been taking over the UNIX workstation market? Give me a break. That market has been dead for almost ten years. Windows took over the market niche formerly occupied by UNIX workstations (including X-Windows stations which were not full UNIX boxen) long before Linux was ready, and the market niche doesn't really exist any longer -- it became part of "the Windows Desktop".

    Although Linux hasn't killed off any UNIX vendors yet, they appear to be concerned by the possibility. IBM for example has been perfecting their AIX up-selling technique -- hook clients with Linux advertising, then up-sell them to AIX. They have a different term for it, migration analysis or something, which they do free for their customers. (Apparently it works well enough that one IBM group pays cash money to another IBM group to do it, such that the customers don't need to pay for the proposal, which says something like, "Gosh, who wouldda thunk? It turns out that your situation lends itself to an AIX solution after all. Shucks, it's a good thing we did this study or you would have been migrating to Linux and you wouldn't be able to leverage the AIX value proposition" or something like that.) IBM is also hedging its bets by making some more serious investments in Linux, and trying to create a market for Linux on IBM hardware, both Intel and Power based.

    Linux has been making inroads into the server market (as you illustrate by example) but it hasn't killed a UNIX vendor there yet. It's also making hay in the embedded systems market. In the process it is displacing some UNIX and some Windows, but also (and perhaps mainly thus far) growing into new areas where there were no dominant players (network linkup boxes were simpletons until fairly recently and didn't run a full operating system like modern switches do, for example). That didn't kill any UNIX vendors, either.

    Windows isn't a stationary target, of course. The expected growth of the product in the server market is finally happening, albeit ten years after the fact. This means the market thinks that Windows is an acceptable substitute for many of the former UNIX server tasks. Even if UNIX administrators have plenty of good reasons why it's not, clearly the show stopping problems which prevented its rise for the last ten years are behind it.

    The frame of reference seems even to have a waning validity. At the very least, analyzing the question for the past was fairly simple, but it becomes very much more complicated to analyze contemporary events through this lens, since most of the surviving UNIX vendors are also Linux vendors. Things have changed so much in the last several years that events won't make sense when viewed through this lens at all. Allow me to illustrate the problem:

    SGI probably sells more Linux than IRIX at this point. If and when SGI hacks up the last bloody phlem and finally dies, which of the following will have occurred?
    1. [ ] Windows killed a UNIX vendor
    2. [ ] Linux killed a UNIX vendor
    3. [ ] management ineptitude killed a UNIX vendor
    4. [ ] Windows killed a Linux vendor

    Hint: All of the above.
    --
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