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Is the Home Desktop Going Away?
fishdan asks: "I recently wrote a lengthy reply to Doug Barney who had written an article saying that Apple and Linux were not trying to compete on the desktop. I saved my reply in my journal, if anyone is interested. However, this got me to thinking. Game makers have said that they are going to be developing for consoles like the Xbox or Playstation, first. Rich web applications like Writely are moving much of the standard functionality of the desktop online. Email is moving rapidly to mobile devices. Given your integrated Web/Media Center/TV that runs through your high resolution screen (that everyone will have in 10 years), what is the future of the home desktop?"
'Nuff said :)
I can't wait until I don't need to use my desktops for anything, 'cause my SETI@Home Average Credit will shoot through the roof! Soon afterwards, I will get credited for discovering the Tralfamadoreans, who, coincidently, like to give huge sums of gold to people who discover them.
I'll just sit back and wait.
I'm sure that EVENTUALLY with media centers and portable tablet/handhelds getting move advanced it might become a reasonable notion, but until we're all walking around with Star Trek-esque super computers the size of a notepad, I'm not sure I see any obvious reason for the desktop to disappear anytime soon.
Man, they keep upping the specs on the video card, processor, memory, etc for all the games.
But maybe by 2020 we'll see the home PC get phased out.
I think we're more likely to see home PCs use more wireless keyboards and run off the HDTV screens, though, and as console game systems improve, we might see fewer people buy home PCs.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Both the desktop and BSD seem to be under the weather lately, and might be dying.
Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"
The desktop will only evolve. Eventually, of course, it may evolve to the point where it's no longer recognizable for its original form but I don't believe anything will dethrone the computer in its functionality and its versatility, despite how many can-do-great-things devices will be made. Hybrids will be made, and very niche-devices will be tailored to this-executive, and that-mother-of-four but I can't see anything just up and throwing the desktop computer way from being the central system to which all of these crazy devices are linked. A lot of people could argue quite strongly that gaming is far from "going away from the desktop." In fact, at least for me, and notably millions of others as well (I would assume), it's the ONLY way to game. I firmly believe that. Gaming isn't going anywhere fast. Gaming is leaving the PC, and gaming is leaving the console. I live in a household with two xboxes, a cube, a ps2, a DS and PSP, and 1 computer (soon-to-be 2) and all are viable gaming platforms. It's definitely a natural human thought device to latch onto an individual concept and have it bleed through your thoughts until it's the proverbial "last man standing." But for me, although I like the occasional dosage of Halo 2 and KOTOR II, I can't pull myself away from the desktop. It puts me in contact with friends, family, chat, media, news, games, and too much others. Desktop's are the backbone of the world today. Maybe i'm just behind on the times but I can't see myself playing games EXCLUSIVELY on my television. I can't see myself switching my email to some crappy 1.2" LCD screen on a mobile phone that has a service provider that's charging me up the butt for emails and text messaging. But hey, that's just me. For me, PCs are a hobby and a lifestyle. Despite all the griping and the groaning about this OS and that OS, and how much it costs to upkeep this computer to be top-of-the-line, or near it, I still love doing it, and I'll keep doing it until I can't anymore. I know a lot of other folks will as well.
I'm sure we're really not that far off from having every desk come standard with an embedded system built right into its top. Maybe with some sort of holographic projection instead of those old-school LCD flatscreens.
My only real point: it's a total no-brainer that desktop computing systems, as we know them now, are going to disappear. Computer technology gets old, and it gets there fast.
"Given your integrated Web/Media Center/TV that runs through your high resolution screen (that everyone will have in 10 years)"
An "integrated Web/Media Center" that runs a high resolution screen sounds a lot like a personal computer. Are you simply inquiring as to the physical location of the typical home computer in the future? I'm guessing many people would be happy with only one computer, hooked up to a T.V....but any user who is even *remotely* hardcore will always have a computer at their desk. It's a tool, just like a pen or stapler.
Plus, I doubt LCD TV or Plasma screens will ever be low enough that the average income...such as myself...can afford multiple displays (which I *need*) on their Media Center.
There is no question in my mind that a "personal server" will emerge at some point. The key to this will be local data storage where all ajax-type web services will be centralized around an individual's network-aware, server-based, personal data store. It will likely be automatically redundant (as in a "personal grid"), and totally clustered. Many devices will just read from it. Why on earth does voice mail get stored at each wireless carrier's data center? What if you could have your devices just connect in and read from your personal server wirelessly instead of synchronizing? Anyone who has had to mess with any sort of synchronization tech. should recognize its shortcomings. So, if I wanted to get to my contacts from my mobile device, the device would just connect securely over the network into my personal server and show me a "view" of my contacts. Same thing for just about all data, except that certain large data types might have to have "personal" content delivery networking technology to facilitate availability to different edge devices, such as a MP3 player, a car, or a friend's livingroom as you show up for a party and want to have a smaller catalogue of the most recently played tracks available locally at their edge for quick access.
Whatever the conjecture, we have entered the age of the personal server.
The desktop in ten years will be a mundane announcement that Vista is no longer supported. Get your copy of Vista SP4 now.
I'm somewhat opposed to the home desktop being replaced by a dumb terminal, mostly on the grounds that it will reduce user privacy and artifically limit the scope of possible use. There are a couple of factors to consider, however:
1. At least in the U.S., there just isn't a good enough broadband Internet infrastructure to handle the bandwidth required to drive a dumb terminal and provide anything near the current desktop experience with games, movies, etc.
2. Even if point 1 wasn't an issue, it'd still be a gradual process to get people to switch to something like that, plus it would take time for various service providers to come up with the hardware and software infrastructure to do it, and finally there'd be a big market war.
3. There's also the point to be made that Microsoft still maintains its industry presence largely via Windows, and a move to dumb terminals plugged into a server-side experience would cause a dramatic shift in Windows' - and thus Microsoft's - role (if not toss it right out the window, pun intended).
Bottom line: I give desktops at least another 10-20 years before someone vaulted into the future from today would have a hard time recognizing a home computer.
Arguing about vi versus Emacs is like arguing whether it's better to make fire by rubbing sticks or banging rocks.
... was that isp's would start offering completely managed hosted desktops for people (rdp, X, vnc, whatever). The idea is that for many many internet users (eg computer illiterate moms and dads keeping in touch with the kids and grandkids), the entire set of applications they use consist of a web browser, an email client, and solitaire.
For a few extra dollars a month, the isp would provide them with a thin client (either a complete hardware and software package or a cd that would boot on an existing pc), and they'd never have to worry about anything like backups and security again. Email and documents would be stored at the ISP (but readily accessible somehow...). If they botch their browser or email config or something, the ISP would be able to fix it with a few button clicks.
Obviously you'd have to place some trust in the ISP to adequately protect your data etc, but if your data consists of emails like 'little johnny took his first steps today, here's a picture', then it's of limited value to anyone anyway.
Hasn't happened yet though.
I'm sitting at home right now typing this post on a G5 PowerMac. Sitting next to me is my cousin's new Mac Mini. I'm waiting on a 20" Apple flat panel display before setting things up at her house. Here's the deal: The Mac Mini will be in placed in my cousin's cupboard, with all the wiring hidden. The flatpanel will be attached to the wall to the side of the cupboard, and a small cantilevered ledge, that has already been built will serve as the home to the keyboard, and optical trackball. This whole set up is very easily to get to, and is situated so that you almost must be able to view the flatpanel if you are in the kitchen. My cousin and her family will use this set up to do most of their online activities, e-mail, web surfing etc.. It will also serve as a bulletin board, family calender etc., and my cousin will have all her recipes stored on the beast. She'll be able to read them from anywhere in the kitchen with out her glasses. (Yes that means large print.) They will also have an nice speaker system in the kitchen and use iTunes for music. If they so choose, they can also view DVDs with their meals. So then where is the desktop? The only 'top' is the small ledge for the keyboard, and trackball, and there's no way that I'd call that a desktop as there's no desk just the small ledge.
"Oh drat these computers, they're so naughty and so complex, I could pinch them." --Marvin the Martian
I've got about as many computers as anyone normally does --- I admit there's a guy who works for me who has 20-odd Sun servers at home, but that's certainly an outlier --- and I tend, increasingly, to do the daily basic stuff on web applications: Basecamp, spongecell, gmail, a web-enabled exchange email (ick), Writely, celtx, iJot ....
I program on my local box, I do heavy graphics on my local box, but those are't the usual day to day applications.
Using web apps means my data is accessible from nearly anywhere. If I'm really concerned about privacy, I keep it on a thumb drive, but there's darn little that I worry about.
I'm not sure why an ordinary civilian user needs a desktop.
Considering the difference in speed in photo-processing between the two 2GHz computers, especially with ever increasing Megapixel count, my desktop is here to stay for the long term. On top of that, other than MacBooks, how many other laptop will be able to drive dual-link DVI monitors? My Dell laptop is sitting by my bed and getting utilized maybe 1/10th as much as my desktop. I don't see a laptop fast enough to replace my current desktop in photo-processing for another 3 years or so...
Dell 700m - 2.0GHz Pentium M
512MB of RAM
40GB HD (5400RPM?)
DVD+-RW (that produces CRC errors often)
shared graphics that can't even handle transparency in gaim...
Home Brewed - 2.0GHz Athlon 64 (not overclocked, surprisingly)
1GB of RAM
2x 73GB Raptor in RAID1
DVR+-RW (that almost never produce coasters)
ATI FireGL X3 (Cheapest dual-link dvi solution at the time i built my system)
Remember WebTV? It was supposed to be the internet for people too dumb/old/poor for a PC. I remember we got it for my grandmother. It sucked pretty bad, and the fact that it only did the basic things was still too much for her. The problem was that no one else knew how to use it either, since everyone else has a PC.
Now she has a PC that's riddled with spyware. What she should have is a machine with a smallish(5G), noexec hard drive + smaller (1G) HD for swap space, in a $100 box that runs BOOTP or something to her ISP. Every morning, she turns it on and it pulls down the OS image, in fact the same OS image that every client of the ISP gets. Tech support becomes "Reboot the box."
That's all 90% of home PCs need to be. But then those semi-tech literate kids at Best Buy wouldn't have anyone to lecture about spyware anymore. Very sad.
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/11/20/15142
With that, "ubiquitous computing" may morph into personal computers merely being interfaces for The Grid, essentially providing the basis for _all_ applications to scale like Seti@Home. Perhaps that's also why Google is interested in electronic micropayments...and it could all happen very, very quickly.
I have no problem finding public terminals in libraries, friends houses and coffeeshops that I can boot from a USB key or a businesscard CD, so perversely don't take my laptop on the road. I could be rendered homeless tomorrow and my clients wouldn't notice. It's a barely perceptible but immensely powerful change in the world - net access isn't ubiquitous, but it can be found for free or at nominal cost just about anywhere in the developed (or even semi-developed) world, as easily found as a public restroom or a dumpster full of yesterday's bagels. People like the homeless guy are as much a part of the information age as the rest of us. That's world-changing stuff that no-one really notices.
Given your integrated Web/Media Center/TV that runs through your high resolution screen (that everyone will have in 10 years), ...that mythological "convergence device", that'll bring together everything in this wonderful media center? Sorry, I've sorta stopped believing in that. the whole wording is like "when we in 10 years all have flying cars..." I imagine I'll maybe have a separate HiDef player, a console for games, a PVR in my satellite/cable reciever... but I still imagine a computer will be invaluable for well... pretty much everything else. Unless any of the others provide me with what is essentially a general purpose box, I'm sure there'll be tons of applications that for some reason or another run better on the computer.
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
It's not going to happen, not in America, ever. Maybe the "desktop" will disappear, but the "home computer that contains everything " will not. Why? We don't like not being in control. There are problems with having a computer based on network computing: 1) It requires constant access to use; 2) You don't keep your data. Everyone likes having their Own Stuff, and desktops are not going to disappear for the same reason that people will never completely stop driving and start using public transportation. You want the freedom that desktop computers allow you: privacy, ease of use, and personalization. Who wants to be tethered to the internet all the time? What I do see in the future is an easier way to store data online so that it is retreivable everywhere. Already many people don't use portable storage anymore - they just save it on the net and download it from wherever they are going. If network speed increases faster than our average file size, portable storage will disappear completely. And what's more is that you will probably have a large portion of your hard drive mirrored somewhere, or alternatively, people will learn to run servers (or they will be made easy to use) so they can download files themselves. Although this should be obvious already.
Did you ever notice that *nix doesn't even cover Linux?
I don't know what the device will be in 10 years, but I know I'll use it in my home office. I've got my house set up for a place to work - and I'll want a computing device in there. 10 years isn't going to change that, I like my desk too much.
Will it be the same device that I play video games with in my living room? Maybe, but I know I'm not going to email in my home theater room.
The device might converge, but my life isn't going to.
I'm going to go off-topic a bit here. I'm not sure I buy your reasoning behind why people will never rely solely on public transportation. It's not because we like to have our own cars, or our privacy, or our own schedule. It is, but that's not the deal-breaker. More people would use public transportation significantly more if a few key pieces are put in place:
You'll only ever see those things happen in dense metropolitan centers, at which point you do see people using only the bus or subway. How many people in downtown NYC own cars? How many people in Tokyo? There are places where such systems could be implemented and haven't (Seattle), but there are many places where it's simply not possible due to population density. Is it worth implementing full bus service for a county in middle-of-nowhere Texas with all of 20 residents? Rural and suburban areas will continue to need personal transportation for a very long time to come, and such areas make up the bulk of the US.
Yeah...cyberbrains, the computer implanted directly to the brain in the Ghost In The Shell anime series. Now THAT would rock.
Home desktops aren't going away so much as they're evolving to fill new roles and needs, as they've done for twenty years now. First they adapted to BBS, then to the Internet with modems, then to the Internet with broadband. Now with mulitmedia becoming essentially computerized, PCs are simply becoming hub controllers for our home electronics systems. We will indeed see many "Internet Appliances" become successful, but none of them will replace the PC entirely. Your PC will likely be your home manager, running not only your communications (including phones and faxes), but your entertainment and utilities. Wanna fire up the heater on the way home from a trip? Use your Blackberry to tell your PC to fire it up on the Interstate so you'll be toasty warm by the time you get there. You'll kick back and watch DVDs while dowloading torrents and running scripts to control your home electricity usage. Hell, maybe you'll even feed the dog with it at the same time.
As for Barney's assertion that Linux isn't really trying to be a competitor in this reason, he's right, but he's also very wrong. There is no commercial Linux competition here. But your home hacker will use Linux to do these things before Microsoft offers them on a commercial platforms. In other words, the hacker hobbyists will once again blaze the important trails in this area, and use Linux to do it. So in its own way, Linux will be well represented here.
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
The future of the desktop is healthy.
The Battery point is mute as you can use it while it's charging.
NO: mute
YES: moot.
The future home desktop is a cell phone sitting in a docking station running vncviewer (or similar) to a session server available for a monthly fee. The applications are pretty much the same - you just don't have to worry about system configuration, backups, hardware/software upgrades, power outages, computing resource limitations, spyware, or virus protection. Anywhere you go, you'll be able to access this data and your session will never end.
I expect that a great many new devices will do some of the tasks now done on desktop PCs. But that doesn't mean that the PCs will go away. These new devices don't replace everything that you use a PC for, they simply add another place to do some of the tasks. None will do all of the tasks with the same ease, none are complete replacements for the others.
Do you have more than one TV? How about phones? Did your iPod replace your home and car stereos, or did it add new ways to listen to music without replacing the old ones?
Granted, those who don't have a computer now will have even less reason to get one in the future. Some people have replaced desktops with laptops; others use laptops as an adjunct to a desktop. One effect of the new devices, though, is that they will change how you use your desktop. Data needs to be accessible from all devices, so you can't lock it up in the desktop and turn the desktop off. Use it with or as a server. So what goes away is the old model of the 'Personal' computer, the single-user stand-alone concept that remains part of the Windows culture, even as the technology has moved on.
I'm sure we're really not that far off from having every desk come standard with an embedded system built right into its top.
MCP: I was planning to hit the Pentagon next week.
Dillinger: The Pentagon?
MCP: It shouldn't be any harder than any other company. But now, this is what I get for using humans.
Dillinger: Now, wait a minute, I wrote you.
MCP: I've gotten 2,415 times smarter since then.
No
I don't have a desktop anymore. Both myself and my wife use laptops, and the living room contains a heavy duty Linux box with Mythtv on it. When I need to do something heavy duty, I ssh/vnc to that box. Otherwise, the laptop is great. The only drawback is games... but I'm only pretty much playing MAME nowadays.
The days of the Large desktop are numbered... It's the small machines that will take over the home.
Your wife will love them as you can build it into the decor.
As a former games programmer, I'll respond to this. Games firms always start out on the open PC platform, then try to graduate into the more profitable and high-end console business. It's deceptive, because at the same time there are new games developers popping up to add other PC games.
It's like interviewing college students, finding that they all want to graduate and get a job, and concluding that soon no one will be attending college.
We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
What do most adults do with their home PC? Edit photos, home accounts, type a letter or two, use a browser, collect their email.
We have PCs that are "good enough". The interfaces are "good enough" (wifi, USB2), the recording media devices are "good enough" (recordable DVD, flash drives), and the PCs in terms of speed are now just waiting for the users.
This doesn't bode well for Microsoft's home market, because I really can't see people rushing out to buy new PCs. What's coming up for PCs that would make the average user upgrade?
Even then desktops will be around if only to start a web browser. So there will always be remote web applications as will be local binary applications. The only difference is which kind for what task.
But what will change is that applications either on the web or local will become cross-platform since sooner or later nobody can afford to develop for several distinct platforms anymore (http://wyoguide.sf.net/papers/Cross-platform.html )
O. Wyss
See http://wyoguide.sf.net/papers/Cross-platform.html
The trend is already happening.
- batteries. You can run a heavy, hot laptop for about 2-3 hours before needing a lengthy recharge. You can run a handheld PDA for roughly the same amount of time;
A Nokia 9500 runs a full workday (and then some) on a single charge. Each newer device gets better, and soon all devices will carry enough juice for the average Joe.
- data input. The desktop/laptop has this amazing invention, the full size keyboard, that lets us enter tons of information more quickly and accurately than any other method.
While I agree, there are plenty of applications that do not require a full-size keyboard.
- storage. Desktops start at 40G of permanent storage and go up to terabytes. Nothing else can compare. What's more, our storage needs are growing, not shrinking. We're not going to switch to Pocket PC/Phone/consoles that have maybe a 10G memory card or a 30G hard disk and give up our 250 giggers.
This is the trend you miss. Flash storage is going up at a much faster rate than storage appetites. Flash storage is doubling annually. At some point in the next few years, flash will provide enough storage for most people's personal data.
- connectivity. A desktop is on DSL or Cable or T1 or dial-up and is a reliable way to access the internet. Handheld devices have to be in range of a wireless hub or in network for cellular connections. The widely available connectivity for broadband handheld devices simply doesn't exist yet.
You hit the nail on the head: yet.
As storage is further miniaturized and as voice input and battery technology improve, we will doubtless see a displacement of casual desktop/laptop use with handhelds, such as Blackberry-style email reading and Palm/PPC-style organizer functions, but for heavy lifting, the desktop will remain.
And each year, the number of applications that fall into the category of "heavy lifting" will diminish until the number is so small that no one really cares.
My aunt has a webTV and she still uses it. It is a web and email terminal. It never needs technical support. It hasn't crashed or needed support in 4 years. The cost of ownership has been exactly equal to the monthly payments which is half the cost of the add-on for a cable modem. She's checks her email and replies within 24 hours.
For somebody who doesn't need to create content and is complacent with not having to watch movies, play music, or put up with pop-ups, virus plan renewals, etc... the WebTV is fine.
.. Blub falls right in the middle of the abstractness continuum. -- Paul Graham
It's only now become ubiquitous, why would it already start going away? Are spyware/virus/trojans reaching the height of peoples' nerves just as home desktops reach their peak market saturation? That might explain something...
Your battery argument is bogus. Laptops have infinitely better battery life than desktops, and work just as well when plugged in, which is how the vast majority are actually being used.
Batteries are really one of the two main advantages of laptops, the other being the portability.
The real anti battery argument you could have made (but didn't) is that in order to extend battery life, laptops get crippled versions of CPUs and other components, that bring down usefulnes even when plugged in.
Split the desktop computer into various parts. These parts then combine to give us a fuller, more powerful computing experience.
My ideal world (in terms of computing):
My PDA (not much smaller than today's cellphones) has the ability to display a keyboard on any surface (this exists today). It can somehow emulate a screen in the air (holographic technology) or transmit video signals directly to my retinas (this exists today as well). The wireless network (WiMax anyone?) will be powerful enough to pipe all my hideously large data to my home 'computer.' In fact, the PDA could be devoid of a harddrive. The battery system will be much more powerful than today's systems. I can also use the PDA as we do today.
Once I'm in my home, I simply put the device on a table and it can wirelessly communicate to anything in my home. So it pumps a video signal wirelessly to my TV. I have a wireless keyboard in the living room that talks to the device as well. Somewhere, in the basement or in a closet, I have a large array of hard-drives. Better yet, quantum technology has advanced to the point where a small crystal can store gigabytes or even terabytes of data. Don't forget that all the data gets between the keyboard, the TV, and the harddrive(s) wirelessly. Yet the interface systems never lets me remember that.
In other words, take the different parts of the computer today (CPU, display, input, storage, etc.) and separate them. Have each independent part wirelessly communicate with each other. As time progresses, each part could be revolutionized in its own way (i.e. E-Ink in the paint on your walls, your walls turn into a giant screen, or harddrives that actually use the spin of quarks as bits, or input devices that tie directly into your brain....)
That's where I think this is all headed.
I never said desktops would go away, just that their purpose as we recently have thought of it is already in the process of changing so drastically that the distinction between desktop, laptop, handheld and all manner of both stationary and mobile devices will become practically meaningless. Perhaps I did not say that in those words, but that was my point. So what if a device of any form, desktop included, has X amount of ram or processor speed if it can connect to a 1 million CPU grid with exabytes of storage? If any device can make that connection, it matters less and less which particular flavor of device you happen to be using---and we're already there. It is just a question of degree.
Game
Desko. It's a Rails project I just recent started. There isn't much to show just yet but the plan is to create an open source online desktop that can integrate with other web apps like gmail and writely. I'm working on getting gmail integration first and then i want a taggable filesystem. http://sourceforge.net/projects/desko
The home desktop will be here for a long long time. The only way that I can concieve of it going away is for the media pigopolists to try to make it illegal.
Personally, I would never ever dream of buying some 'media center' anything. No one will ever really believe for long what that a 'media center' is for anything but implementing DRM on a home wide scale and enforcing it at a hardware level.
I can see this happening, however I do not think that desktop computers will become totally extinct. I do think however that they will become less-used. These days, many people who own full desktop computers don't even need all of the things they have. Many people are quite satisfied with a web browser, email, and maybe an IM client or a data organizer. Depending on their needs, office suites might also be needed.
But really, that is the extent of many peoples computer usage. I hear this a lot when people preach about going to a different OS, saying that you can do all the things you do with your old OS on this new one minus the stuff you don't like, and I think the same ideal can be applied when switching to a smaller mobile device from a full desktop computer.
I see this in my family also, even though we have a family desktop, noone uses any more applications than FireFox or AIM or iTunes. A less powerful device is great for them, but for someone like me who needs bleeding edge graphics for games and processing power for compiling applications and the like, I don't see desktops going out of style anytime soon.
I see somebody needs their nerd card revoked, if they don't get that reference.
The vast majority of tech support these days is *already*, "Reboot the box."
With your proposed thin client, that would have a much better chance of working!