Slashdot Mirror
Is the Home Desktop Going Away?
fishdan asks: "I recently wrote a lengthy reply to Doug Barney who had written an article saying that Apple and Linux were not trying to compete on the desktop. I saved my reply in my journal, if anyone is interested. However, this got me to thinking. Game makers have said that they are going to be developing for consoles like the Xbox or Playstation, first. Rich web applications like Writely are moving much of the standard functionality of the desktop online. Email is moving rapidly to mobile devices. Given your integrated Web/Media Center/TV that runs through your high resolution screen (that everyone will have in 10 years), what is the future of the home desktop?"
I can't wait until I don't need to use my desktops for anything, 'cause my SETI@Home Average Credit will shoot through the roof! Soon afterwards, I will get credited for discovering the Tralfamadoreans, who, coincidently, like to give huge sums of gold to people who discover them.
I'll just sit back and wait.
I'm sure that EVENTUALLY with media centers and portable tablet/handhelds getting move advanced it might become a reasonable notion, but until we're all walking around with Star Trek-esque super computers the size of a notepad, I'm not sure I see any obvious reason for the desktop to disappear anytime soon.
Both the desktop and BSD seem to be under the weather lately, and might be dying.
Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"
The desktop will only evolve. Eventually, of course, it may evolve to the point where it's no longer recognizable for its original form but I don't believe anything will dethrone the computer in its functionality and its versatility, despite how many can-do-great-things devices will be made. Hybrids will be made, and very niche-devices will be tailored to this-executive, and that-mother-of-four but I can't see anything just up and throwing the desktop computer way from being the central system to which all of these crazy devices are linked. A lot of people could argue quite strongly that gaming is far from "going away from the desktop." In fact, at least for me, and notably millions of others as well (I would assume), it's the ONLY way to game. I firmly believe that. Gaming isn't going anywhere fast. Gaming is leaving the PC, and gaming is leaving the console. I live in a household with two xboxes, a cube, a ps2, a DS and PSP, and 1 computer (soon-to-be 2) and all are viable gaming platforms. It's definitely a natural human thought device to latch onto an individual concept and have it bleed through your thoughts until it's the proverbial "last man standing." But for me, although I like the occasional dosage of Halo 2 and KOTOR II, I can't pull myself away from the desktop. It puts me in contact with friends, family, chat, media, news, games, and too much others. Desktop's are the backbone of the world today. Maybe i'm just behind on the times but I can't see myself playing games EXCLUSIVELY on my television. I can't see myself switching my email to some crappy 1.2" LCD screen on a mobile phone that has a service provider that's charging me up the butt for emails and text messaging. But hey, that's just me. For me, PCs are a hobby and a lifestyle. Despite all the griping and the groaning about this OS and that OS, and how much it costs to upkeep this computer to be top-of-the-line, or near it, I still love doing it, and I'll keep doing it until I can't anymore. I know a lot of other folks will as well.
I'm sure we're really not that far off from having every desk come standard with an embedded system built right into its top. Maybe with some sort of holographic projection instead of those old-school LCD flatscreens.
My only real point: it's a total no-brainer that desktop computing systems, as we know them now, are going to disappear. Computer technology gets old, and it gets there fast.
"Given your integrated Web/Media Center/TV that runs through your high resolution screen (that everyone will have in 10 years)"
An "integrated Web/Media Center" that runs a high resolution screen sounds a lot like a personal computer. Are you simply inquiring as to the physical location of the typical home computer in the future? I'm guessing many people would be happy with only one computer, hooked up to a T.V....but any user who is even *remotely* hardcore will always have a computer at their desk. It's a tool, just like a pen or stapler.
Plus, I doubt LCD TV or Plasma screens will ever be low enough that the average income...such as myself...can afford multiple displays (which I *need*) on their Media Center.
There is no question in my mind that a "personal server" will emerge at some point. The key to this will be local data storage where all ajax-type web services will be centralized around an individual's network-aware, server-based, personal data store. It will likely be automatically redundant (as in a "personal grid"), and totally clustered. Many devices will just read from it. Why on earth does voice mail get stored at each wireless carrier's data center? What if you could have your devices just connect in and read from your personal server wirelessly instead of synchronizing? Anyone who has had to mess with any sort of synchronization tech. should recognize its shortcomings. So, if I wanted to get to my contacts from my mobile device, the device would just connect securely over the network into my personal server and show me a "view" of my contacts. Same thing for just about all data, except that certain large data types might have to have "personal" content delivery networking technology to facilitate availability to different edge devices, such as a MP3 player, a car, or a friend's livingroom as you show up for a party and want to have a smaller catalogue of the most recently played tracks available locally at their edge for quick access.
Whatever the conjecture, we have entered the age of the personal server.
The desktop in ten years will be a mundane announcement that Vista is no longer supported. Get your copy of Vista SP4 now.
I'm somewhat opposed to the home desktop being replaced by a dumb terminal, mostly on the grounds that it will reduce user privacy and artifically limit the scope of possible use. There are a couple of factors to consider, however:
1. At least in the U.S., there just isn't a good enough broadband Internet infrastructure to handle the bandwidth required to drive a dumb terminal and provide anything near the current desktop experience with games, movies, etc.
2. Even if point 1 wasn't an issue, it'd still be a gradual process to get people to switch to something like that, plus it would take time for various service providers to come up with the hardware and software infrastructure to do it, and finally there'd be a big market war.
3. There's also the point to be made that Microsoft still maintains its industry presence largely via Windows, and a move to dumb terminals plugged into a server-side experience would cause a dramatic shift in Windows' - and thus Microsoft's - role (if not toss it right out the window, pun intended).
Bottom line: I give desktops at least another 10-20 years before someone vaulted into the future from today would have a hard time recognizing a home computer.
Arguing about vi versus Emacs is like arguing whether it's better to make fire by rubbing sticks or banging rocks.
... was that isp's would start offering completely managed hosted desktops for people (rdp, X, vnc, whatever). The idea is that for many many internet users (eg computer illiterate moms and dads keeping in touch with the kids and grandkids), the entire set of applications they use consist of a web browser, an email client, and solitaire.
For a few extra dollars a month, the isp would provide them with a thin client (either a complete hardware and software package or a cd that would boot on an existing pc), and they'd never have to worry about anything like backups and security again. Email and documents would be stored at the ISP (but readily accessible somehow...). If they botch their browser or email config or something, the ISP would be able to fix it with a few button clicks.
Obviously you'd have to place some trust in the ISP to adequately protect your data etc, but if your data consists of emails like 'little johnny took his first steps today, here's a picture', then it's of limited value to anyone anyway.
Hasn't happened yet though.
I'm sitting at home right now typing this post on a G5 PowerMac. Sitting next to me is my cousin's new Mac Mini. I'm waiting on a 20" Apple flat panel display before setting things up at her house. Here's the deal: The Mac Mini will be in placed in my cousin's cupboard, with all the wiring hidden. The flatpanel will be attached to the wall to the side of the cupboard, and a small cantilevered ledge, that has already been built will serve as the home to the keyboard, and optical trackball. This whole set up is very easily to get to, and is situated so that you almost must be able to view the flatpanel if you are in the kitchen. My cousin and her family will use this set up to do most of their online activities, e-mail, web surfing etc.. It will also serve as a bulletin board, family calender etc., and my cousin will have all her recipes stored on the beast. She'll be able to read them from anywhere in the kitchen with out her glasses. (Yes that means large print.) They will also have an nice speaker system in the kitchen and use iTunes for music. If they so choose, they can also view DVDs with their meals. So then where is the desktop? The only 'top' is the small ledge for the keyboard, and trackball, and there's no way that I'd call that a desktop as there's no desk just the small ledge.
"Oh drat these computers, they're so naughty and so complex, I could pinch them." --Marvin the Martian
I've got about as many computers as anyone normally does --- I admit there's a guy who works for me who has 20-odd Sun servers at home, but that's certainly an outlier --- and I tend, increasingly, to do the daily basic stuff on web applications: Basecamp, spongecell, gmail, a web-enabled exchange email (ick), Writely, celtx, iJot ....
I program on my local box, I do heavy graphics on my local box, but those are't the usual day to day applications.
Using web apps means my data is accessible from nearly anywhere. If I'm really concerned about privacy, I keep it on a thumb drive, but there's darn little that I worry about.
I'm not sure why an ordinary civilian user needs a desktop.
Remember WebTV? It was supposed to be the internet for people too dumb/old/poor for a PC. I remember we got it for my grandmother. It sucked pretty bad, and the fact that it only did the basic things was still too much for her. The problem was that no one else knew how to use it either, since everyone else has a PC.
Now she has a PC that's riddled with spyware. What she should have is a machine with a smallish(5G), noexec hard drive + smaller (1G) HD for swap space, in a $100 box that runs BOOTP or something to her ISP. Every morning, she turns it on and it pulls down the OS image, in fact the same OS image that every client of the ISP gets. Tech support becomes "Reboot the box."
That's all 90% of home PCs need to be. But then those semi-tech literate kids at Best Buy wouldn't have anyone to lecture about spyware anymore. Very sad.
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/11/20/15142
With that, "ubiquitous computing" may morph into personal computers merely being interfaces for The Grid, essentially providing the basis for _all_ applications to scale like Seti@Home. Perhaps that's also why Google is interested in electronic micropayments...and it could all happen very, very quickly.
I have no problem finding public terminals in libraries, friends houses and coffeeshops that I can boot from a USB key or a businesscard CD, so perversely don't take my laptop on the road. I could be rendered homeless tomorrow and my clients wouldn't notice. It's a barely perceptible but immensely powerful change in the world - net access isn't ubiquitous, but it can be found for free or at nominal cost just about anywhere in the developed (or even semi-developed) world, as easily found as a public restroom or a dumpster full of yesterday's bagels. People like the homeless guy are as much a part of the information age as the rest of us. That's world-changing stuff that no-one really notices.
It's not going to happen, not in America, ever. Maybe the "desktop" will disappear, but the "home computer that contains everything " will not. Why? We don't like not being in control. There are problems with having a computer based on network computing: 1) It requires constant access to use; 2) You don't keep your data. Everyone likes having their Own Stuff, and desktops are not going to disappear for the same reason that people will never completely stop driving and start using public transportation. You want the freedom that desktop computers allow you: privacy, ease of use, and personalization. Who wants to be tethered to the internet all the time? What I do see in the future is an easier way to store data online so that it is retreivable everywhere. Already many people don't use portable storage anymore - they just save it on the net and download it from wherever they are going. If network speed increases faster than our average file size, portable storage will disappear completely. And what's more is that you will probably have a large portion of your hard drive mirrored somewhere, or alternatively, people will learn to run servers (or they will be made easy to use) so they can download files themselves. Although this should be obvious already.
Did you ever notice that *nix doesn't even cover Linux?
I don't know what the device will be in 10 years, but I know I'll use it in my home office. I've got my house set up for a place to work - and I'll want a computing device in there. 10 years isn't going to change that, I like my desk too much.
Will it be the same device that I play video games with in my living room? Maybe, but I know I'm not going to email in my home theater room.
The device might converge, but my life isn't going to.
I don't have a desktop anymore. Both myself and my wife use laptops, and the living room contains a heavy duty Linux box with Mythtv on it. When I need to do something heavy duty, I ssh/vnc to that box. Otherwise, the laptop is great. The only drawback is games... but I'm only pretty much playing MAME nowadays.
As a former games programmer, I'll respond to this. Games firms always start out on the open PC platform, then try to graduate into the more profitable and high-end console business. It's deceptive, because at the same time there are new games developers popping up to add other PC games.
It's like interviewing college students, finding that they all want to graduate and get a job, and concluding that soon no one will be attending college.
We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
Split the desktop computer into various parts. These parts then combine to give us a fuller, more powerful computing experience.
My ideal world (in terms of computing):
My PDA (not much smaller than today's cellphones) has the ability to display a keyboard on any surface (this exists today). It can somehow emulate a screen in the air (holographic technology) or transmit video signals directly to my retinas (this exists today as well). The wireless network (WiMax anyone?) will be powerful enough to pipe all my hideously large data to my home 'computer.' In fact, the PDA could be devoid of a harddrive. The battery system will be much more powerful than today's systems. I can also use the PDA as we do today.
Once I'm in my home, I simply put the device on a table and it can wirelessly communicate to anything in my home. So it pumps a video signal wirelessly to my TV. I have a wireless keyboard in the living room that talks to the device as well. Somewhere, in the basement or in a closet, I have a large array of hard-drives. Better yet, quantum technology has advanced to the point where a small crystal can store gigabytes or even terabytes of data. Don't forget that all the data gets between the keyboard, the TV, and the harddrive(s) wirelessly. Yet the interface systems never lets me remember that.
In other words, take the different parts of the computer today (CPU, display, input, storage, etc.) and separate them. Have each independent part wirelessly communicate with each other. As time progresses, each part could be revolutionized in its own way (i.e. E-Ink in the paint on your walls, your walls turn into a giant screen, or harddrives that actually use the spin of quarks as bits, or input devices that tie directly into your brain....)
That's where I think this is all headed.
I can see this happening, however I do not think that desktop computers will become totally extinct. I do think however that they will become less-used. These days, many people who own full desktop computers don't even need all of the things they have. Many people are quite satisfied with a web browser, email, and maybe an IM client or a data organizer. Depending on their needs, office suites might also be needed.
But really, that is the extent of many peoples computer usage. I hear this a lot when people preach about going to a different OS, saying that you can do all the things you do with your old OS on this new one minus the stuff you don't like, and I think the same ideal can be applied when switching to a smaller mobile device from a full desktop computer.
I see this in my family also, even though we have a family desktop, noone uses any more applications than FireFox or AIM or iTunes. A less powerful device is great for them, but for someone like me who needs bleeding edge graphics for games and processing power for compiling applications and the like, I don't see desktops going out of style anytime soon.