PS3 Delay May Hurt Current Gen Too

Next Generation reports that, in some analysts view, the real victim of the PS3 delay may actually be current gen console publishers and gamers. Houses like EA and Activision have a lot of money tied up in creating games for the next generation, and if the PS3 isn't launching here in the states until after summmer... They end up laying out four increasingly bad scenarios for the industry. From the article: "The third scenario theorizes on a 25 percent price cut on current generation software. We've already seen substantial price-cuts from EA, as the current-gen versions of The Godfather, Black and Fight Night Round 3 all debuted or will debut at $40, a 20 percent cut from the normal $50 price tag. The erosion of sales prices may be caused by publishers trying to unload inventory, or by publishers that target budget shoppers. This scenario could cause major publishers' earnings to drop between 35 and 49 percent."

Comments

I beg to differ...

[Anonymous Coward]

Gentoo will be fine thank you. And it will probably run faster on teh PS3 than other Linuces because it is optimized for... Oh wait... :)

Fifth scenario

[Walkiry]

Blame them thar pirates again. Yarrr!

The obvious solution

[KingBraden]

Maybe they could go back to making good games. Seriously, I haven't bought a PS2 game in ages. Not because I want to save an extra ten bucks, but because the games all suck.

"Delays"

[mcc]

As far as I am aware Sony never actually announced a spring release for America. They've been talking about a spring launch quite a lot, but I've never seen them do so without the "...in Japan" qualifier. My assumption all along has been that we'll be getting a mid-late Spring launch in Japan*, with a four or five month gap before the American launch, just like with the PSP, and the "PS3 release in Spring!" thing is as far as America's concerned just internet rumors blown out of proportion.

Now, maybe Sony claimed something specific about American release dates that I didn't see at some point. But that brings me to my point: Practically nobody knows they were supposed to be expecting a ps3 spring launch in the first place unless they follow websites and magazines like this one religiously! Sony's been so tight-lipped in the general american press about the PS3 it's crazy. A lot of people don't really know anything at all about the PS3 except that it's someday coming-- which is something they probably knew two years go, too. The uncertainty about the release date is a big deal on internet message boards, but internet message boards are not the market.

How can delays in the PS3 possibly hurt PS2 game sales when practically nobody knows a delay is happening in the first place? Especially considering

1. The PS3 is backward compatible with the PS2, so PS2 games can be played on and bought for the PS3.
2. The major blockbuster games still yet to come for the PS2 have been in development for years-- they couldn't be switched to PS3 titles even if the publisher wanted, and most of the minor titles between now and the "real" PS3 launch probably couldn't either. If there's a next-gen sales cooling effect coming, it will happen to those games whether the PS3 is delayed or not.

It just seems kinda silly to me. PS2 hardware sales are probably going to drop off as people increasingly wait for the PS3-- I know I personally would have probably bought a ps2 several months ago if I weren't waiting for the PS3-- but the PS2 sales base is already ginormous, and they're talking about game sales in this article. PS2 games absolutely can and will continue to sell briskly right up to the PS3 release, even if there is a "next gen" system already available; look at Final Fantasy 9, a PS1 game which came out shortly after the PS2 launch and after the Dreamcast had been out a year. It was a top seller at release despite being widely viewed as the worst game in the series**.

This whole thing just sounds to me like gibberish from analysts trying to rewrite reality to be more dramatic.

* Though if they don't announce a release date at GDC on March 20, I will take that as a sign the Japan launch date has slipped as well. You do not go from media blackout to release in under three months unless you are Sega and you have a death wish.
** Mystic Quest doesn't count.

There is one good scenario

[Dark Paladin]

The one "good" scenario deals not with the developers and publishers, but with Sony. If the system is delayed, that will allow any last minute "bug crushing" to finish - and more importantly, allow more titles to be finished by launch date. Instead of having 10 games (and a large library of backwards-compatible titles), Sony could wind up with more.

Granted, that means the publishers are screwed over, but as someone else mentioned, they'll just blame it on piracy and life will move on.