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PS3 Delay May Hurt Current Gen Too
Next Generation reports that, in some analysts view, the real victim of the PS3 delay may actually be current gen console publishers and gamers. Houses like EA and Activision have a lot of money tied up in creating games for the next generation, and if the PS3 isn't launching here in the states until after summmer... They end up laying out four increasingly bad scenarios for the industry. From the article: "The third scenario theorizes on a 25 percent price cut on current generation software. We've already seen substantial price-cuts from EA, as the current-gen versions of The Godfather, Black and Fight Night Round 3 all debuted or will debut at $40, a 20 percent cut from the normal $50 price tag. The erosion of sales prices may be caused by publishers trying to unload inventory, or by publishers that target budget shoppers. This scenario could cause major publishers' earnings to drop between 35 and 49 percent."
Gentoo will be fine thank you. And it will probably run faster on teh PS3 than other Linuces because it is optimized for... Oh wait... :)
Blame them thar pirates again. Yarrr!
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Maybe they could go back to making good games. Seriously, I haven't bought a PS2 game in ages. Not because I want to save an extra ten bucks, but because the games all suck.
Now, maybe Sony claimed something specific about American release dates that I didn't see at some point. But that brings me to my point: Practically nobody knows they were supposed to be expecting a ps3 spring launch in the first place unless they follow websites and magazines like this one religiously! Sony's been so tight-lipped in the general american press about the PS3 it's crazy. A lot of people don't really know anything at all about the PS3 except that it's someday coming-- which is something they probably knew two years go, too. The uncertainty about the release date is a big deal on internet message boards, but internet message boards are not the market.
How can delays in the PS3 possibly hurt PS2 game sales when practically nobody knows a delay is happening in the first place? Especially considering
It just seems kinda silly to me. PS2 hardware sales are probably going to drop off as people increasingly wait for the PS3-- I know I personally would have probably bought a ps2 several months ago if I weren't waiting for the PS3-- but the PS2 sales base is already ginormous, and they're talking about game sales in this article. PS2 games absolutely can and will continue to sell briskly right up to the PS3 release, even if there is a "next gen" system already available; look at Final Fantasy 9, a PS1 game which came out shortly after the PS2 launch and after the Dreamcast had been out a year. It was a top seller at release despite being widely viewed as the worst game in the series**.
This whole thing just sounds to me like gibberish from analysts trying to rewrite reality to be more dramatic.
* Though if they don't announce a release date at GDC on March 20, I will take that as a sign the Japan launch date has slipped as well. You do not go from media blackout to release in under three months unless you are Sega and you have a death wish.
** Mystic Quest doesn't count.
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....the real victim of the PS3 delay may actually be current gen console publishers and gamers... "The third scenario theorizes on a 25 percent price cut on current generation software.
The way I see this, is that the publishers lose, and the customer wins. So, does that mean if the PS3 were here now, prices would be higher and the publisher wins and customer loses?
There is the concept of 'risk' that every company must analyze and accept. Sometimes you win some, sometimes... well, you know...
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Wouldn't now be the time for the software houses work on different/quirky games for the current consoles? Now I understand that it takes a lot to get a game out on a console, but it seems to me that there is a lull in the gaming market. Other than the 360, most consoles should have well developed/tuned library that they could churn something out easily. What if they did a google labs kinda thing? Take a quarter or two and incubate some low budget games. Peridocially you see what's sticking and cull the stuff that's not. Who knows, maybe this will give them a new franchise to run into the ground or even better a new genre of game.
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The one "good" scenario deals not with the developers and publishers, but with Sony. If the system is delayed, that will allow any last minute "bug crushing" to finish - and more importantly, allow more titles to be finished by launch date. Instead of having 10 games (and a large library of backwards-compatible titles), Sony could wind up with more.
Granted, that means the publishers are screwed over, but as someone else mentioned, they'll just blame it on piracy and life will move on.
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Sony has been backing away from claiming compatibility. "It's hard to say the PlayStation 3 will be 100 percent backwards compatible but as we said earlier this year we aim to make it so as much as possible."
Sony will probably try software emulation, but there's no guarantee it will be fast enough to play all PS2 games. Tetris, no problem. Call of Duty, maybe not. "Compatible" might have to be an upgrade deal; turn in your PS2 game disk and get a discount on a PS3 version.
As previously commented, most people have no idea when the PS3 is going to come out. "Everyone" knows that the PS3 is going to be backwards comp. with PS2 though. So what's the issue here? The /. commentary seems to state that publishers are going to cut prices on PS2 games before PS3 games come out. Hmm, I doubt it. I'd say that most PS2 games will stay right at their current price point until shortly after the PS3 goes on sale. You'll see maybe a $5-10 drop on the big seller games while those that have been on the shelves and not moving will be dropped to $20-25 dollars. Alot of PS3 buyers will just pickup cheap PS2 games rather than spend $50-70 on "new" PS3 games. Backwards compatiblity is really bad for "new game" sell, but great for reselling the same stock over and over again. (That publisher that has sequel 3 that is moving well, with I don't really see a negative if they plan on just dropping prices for the PS3 release just to move stock. Trust me, the publishers aren't going to be losing money.