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Warmer Oceans linked to Stronger Hurricanes
linguizic writes "According to Scientific American, global warming could be creating stronger hurricanes: 'Since the 1970s, ocean surface temperatures around the globe have been on the rise--from one half to one degree Fahrenheit, depending on the region. Last summer, two studies linked this temperature rise to stronger and more frequent hurricanes. Skeptics called other factors into account, such as natural variability, but a new statistical analysis shows that only this sea surface temperature increase explains this trend.'"
Global warming is a Liberal Myth. Rush and Sean said so!
Ok, well, for some people it was. :)
You are not the customer.
Granted the fact that, as someone already mentioned, we already knew this, we still don't have a definite explanation as to why the waters are warming up. Environmentalists say global warming thanks to oil. Oleum (latin for oil... it's where the term "Petroleum" comes from) companies say it's a result of excess water in the atmosphere or that it's part of a constant cycle. Each side needs to defend their cred, but one better turn out to be right, because these hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons are killing more and more people by the year.
Viable Slashdot alternatives: https://pipedot.org/ and http://soylentnews.org/
One of the major origin of hurricanes is the ocean temperature. If enough water is above 27C you are likely to see hurricanes poping on the radar. If some still want to believe that it was bad luck/fate/god's vengeance/*pick dump excuse* that braught the south of the USA to the ground... let them do.
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The Earth is getting warmer currently, but the primary cause of increased ocean temperatures in the atlantic is from the fact that we're entering the warm part of the 50 year cycle. If you want a very good write up of the study check out this:
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=031606F
Long term statistics suggest that the number of hurrican strikes is at a cyclic low. Kyotoists tend to use sensational single incidents to bolster their hysterical, political claims. Kyoto was rejected because it is an economic Jonestown that will do nothing to affect global warming.
an ill wind that blows no good
I'm cautious reading stories like these. TFA indicates that statistical analysis says the 1 degree warmer water increases hurricane intensity. That makes sense. Now what can they do with that information? Does it help prediction models? Even if we were a totally rational and science-founded world (which we are not), this study shouldn't sway us either way. Obviously we can't directly control ocean temperature. Can anyone quantify changes humanity can make and implement to lower ocean temperature directly? Nope.
Maybe the study answers it, but what does the increased temperature do to other weather? Does it change, speed up, or slow down the oceanic currents and trade winds? Is the water temperature becoming less entropic, with higher temperature but smaller surface area or volume, or more? Is the depth of heating increasing or decreasing? "More hot water means stronger hurricanes" doesn't add much to what we already know.
Obviously more study is warranted before we all go spaztastic.
It sure would be nice if people could discuss science and not politics, especially for something so important. But I'm not holding my breath.
Uh, is climate change not a political issue? Should we avoid political discussions whenever an issue is "important"? Seems like a strange idea to me.
I think what you mean to say is that we should avoid political discussions that consist of braindead mudslinging (e.g. "Everyone who drives a car is a guilty of ecological genocide!", "If you criticize car culture, you're with the terrorists", etc., etc.).
The Kyoto Protocol always was and always will be useless. Everyone would need to sign the Kyoto treaty some 50 times or so to even NOTICE changes in the environment. Secondly, the way the treaty is arranged no one who's signed it is actually meeting the requirements it sets, they're just trading their excess productions in each field with people who do. So why sign a treaty that's economically damaging since it's so useless? The only thing that will reduce our environmental footprint is creating and using cleaner technologies, and the best way to do that is to have as efficient and powerful an economy as possible, but direct it in the ways that we want to.
Well, it's a pity the schools didn't brainwash you into believing in "paragraphs".
~~~~ Curry says. Her team will now focus on clarifying the mechanisms at work in the North Atlantic by separating out the 75-year natural cycle and climate change. "The last peak was in 1950, the next is in 2025," she adds. "We're only halfway up [the cycle] and we're already 50 percent worse [in terms of storms]. To me, that's a compelling issue that needs to be confronted." ~~~
..etc that were moving further north.. leaving local indiginous people that had lived in the areas affected for well..... a LONG ASS TIME. for the first time w/out the food recourses to survive as they have for centuries...
as i'm reading this they are saying the storms now are 50% worse than the storms in 1950 (which should have been the high point of storm activity based on natural cycle)... and that the natural cycle would point to natural warming for next 20~years........
I'm honestly starting to wonder if humanity even has time left to get our stuff together or if we've already taken things to far, with our climate impacting activities.
I was reading the other day about artic wild life...seals
human caused global warming is close enough to completely proved for me.
actually I am happy to see you, however that is in fact a banana in my pocket.
Oh well, coming on top of famine, drought, peak oil, bird flu, hiv, cancer, global warming, wars, the North Pole melting, earthquakes, resurgent Islam and thermo-nuclear trouble in Iraq - news always available in a newspaper near you - I guess I'll just have to put this one down to yet another paragraph I failed to read at the bottom of the End User's Licence Agreement called life.
Las qué passoun
tournoun pas maï
I don't have numbers to justify it, but what about everyone complaining about ice caps melting? It would seem to me that warm waters might explain this, but then wouldn't the melting ice cause the ocean to cool? I guess it depends on how much ice is melting and the range of warmer ocean water.
I don't know what stypraphone is, byut Styrofoam has little to do with global warming. The CFCs used to expand styrofoam until the mid-1980s deplete ozone in the stratosphere. This causes an increase in UV radiation at ground level, not global warming.
Recycling reduces the energy consumed in industry. On one extreme, aluminum takes huge amounts of energy to smelt from ore, but relatively little to melt and re-cast. On the other, seperating, transporting, and recycling paper products takes slightly more energy than using new material, BUT reduces deforestation, thus preserving the CO2 absorbtion capabilities of the worlds forests.
Global warming is a global phenomenon, and weather patterns are changing over the whole world. There may be some areas that have lower temperatures, but this does not disprove global warming, since the aggregate temperatures are still higher.
I suggest you go back to school and get brainwashed with grammer, critical thinking, composition, the scientific method, the meaning of a scientific theory and hypothesis, but mostly critical thinking.
I wonder how many huracane disasters it will take the US to adopt the Kyoto Protocol they have rejected...
I don't think you get it. Despite right-winger's appearent hatred of Darwin's ideas, they actually embrace dog-eat-dog everyman-for-himself view of things. Their belief is that if nations/people cannot handle and adapt to global warming, it is their own problem and that they "deserve" to parish. This fits nicely into their no-welfare, no gov'mt help, 3rd-world Phd wages and visas, reward the wealthy, let "permiscuous" aides patients die, might-makes-right, etc. approach to things.
The only thing they have not done is openly stated that this is their formal policy (because they would lose the moderate conversatives if they admitted it publicly). They are essentially closet Darwinists. One of their slogans during the last Republican convention was "don't be afraid to compete". Well, don't be afraid to compete in a warm, flooded world.
Table-ized A.I.
It wasn't all cheesy. Scientists really are looking into the possibility that fresh water from melting glaciers might be diluting the ocean's salinity. That makes it increasingly difficult for cooling water to sink and return south towards the poles to pick up more heat. This kind of disruption could cause Europe's climate to cool down. We're already seeing signs that a component of the current system powering the Gulf Stream might be slowing down. Besides, the subject could use a publicity, and a high profile film provides just that.
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It's cost me 5 minutes to correct this gibberish. Wasted time, perhaps, considering that all I've ended up with is more grammatically correct gibberish. At least I now know two things I didn't before: a) what kind of person believes global warming isn't happening b) how that idiot got re-electedPenguiNet: the (shareware) Windows SSH client
What, and we can trust the NOAA, after the recent evidence that the administration censors what they say?
Tubal-Cain smokes the white owl.
Interesting theory, especially since the viscosity of sea water *decreases* with temperature. See: http://www.marine.maine.edu/~jumars/classes/SMS_48 1/Viscosity.pdf
One, that does to Crawford, Texas what Katrina did to New Orleans, Missisippi, and elsewhere (assuming George W. Bush is still in charge at that point).
;-)
"Still"? He wasn't in charge during the first one
Table-ized A.I.
It's amazing how fully you understand the conservative point of view without even asking any of them.
I would say "I don't think you get it" but you already used up that line.
No, I don't fully embrace one 'side' or the other. I think, however, that polarizing dogmatists like you make the discussion worse.
"We have not observed a long-term increase in the intensity or frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. Actually, 1991-1994 marked the four quietest years on record (back to the mid-1940s) with just less than 4 hurricanes per year.".
Which is what makes this new study actually news.
Note that NOAA is saying "we haven't seen a long-term increase in hurricane intensity".
This study now says "well, now you have, because there is one."
It should also be noted that this study studied all hurricane regions, not just the Atlantic region.
Are you sure? From the article...
Yes. They do, in fact know about the cycle.
Many scientists have studied past hurricanes
Yah, sure. That doesn't mean these guys are wrong. Scientists, y'know, discover stuff. And while a link hadn't been found before, it's entirely possible that it has been found now.
Well, it was obvious to some of us. But most people are in denial about this stuff. Hell, most people haven't admitted global warming is a problem yet, due to greed or stupidity or plain old laziness, or probably a hundred other reasons.
Hurricanes harm the poor far more than they harm the rich. An unrestrained economy on the other hand benefits the rich far more than it benefits the poor. Even if the US had a thousand hurricanes, the rich won't change their mind on this.
Global warming is going to result in more water in the atmosphere, as increased temperature permits air to hold more water. ( Decrease the temperature, as on the surface of a glass of cold beer, and you will see the atmospheric water condense out on the outside of the glass.)
Water goes through a significant change in volume between the liquid and vapor phase. Enough to explode boilers or vacuum-collapse cans of steam which are capped then cooled.
Couple the volume change of water passing from the vapor phase to the liquid phase, and throw in the velocity change as polar air is drawn equatorially by the sling of centrifugal force ( as cold air is heavier than hot air - hot air rises ), and you have the makings of hurricanes.
Remember, polar air is moving about 0 mph at the exact North pole, but will have to be accelerated to ( circumference of the earth/24 hours )MPH as it goes to the equator. We have a significant coriolis effect here.
I have cited my observation the very laws of physics themselves - which I understand govern this situation. It is my strongest belief that we are indeed making one helluva mess by messing with our planet's thermal systems.
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
"The Kyoto Protocol always was and always will be useless."
That's oil-company FUD. First: While reducing CO2 emission may not do anything in the next five years, it will do something for long term climate change. CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas because of its quantity. Reducing it will have an effect, just not immediately.
Second: Russia are meeting their requirements. Those are the only ones I know of, but they're also the only ones I've read about.
Yep, Global warming is just a myth until a hurricane hit Washington DC or New York City
Then you can bet someone will declare, it is global warming
Well, as a resident of Louisiana, I can attest that more hurricanes are a bad thing. We were not hit by Katrina, but we had the refugees staying in our houses. New Orleans is still on hell of a mess. On the other hand, we did get hit somewhat by the hurricane everyone forgets, Rita. That really trashed our coastal parishes and poisoned the land with salt (for details see here). A warmer Gulf means the risk of more storms and stronger storms. From where we sit, we really do not give a proverbial 'rats arse' about the politics. We just do not want hurricanes. If ANYTHING can be done to lower the temperature of the sea and thereby reduce the risk, I am for it. The politicos like to carp on about the causal link not being proved -- this was the line used by tobacco companies for years. Anyone who knows anything about the philosophy of science knows that it is almost possible to prove causation. What matters is strong correlation. This we seem to have, although I am sure whilst Haliburton runs the Whitehouse, nobody will pay any attention. Sorry, I needed to vent on this...
To sum up: the data DO show a change in hurricane patterns. (Of course, if you look at property damage caused by hurricanes, it is skyrocketing mostly because people are dumb and build lots of expensive property by the beach, but that doesn't mean that hurricanes aren't getting worse at the same time as people are building more stuff in their path)
While everyone is entitled to their own opinion, nobody is entitled to their own facts. (I need an atribution for that; it isn't original.)
Muddling the population's grasp of the facts is not hard, as there is too much going on for us all to be an expert on everything. It nevertheless is cheating. There is much organized cheating going on, intended to confuse the population. The effects of this cheating are visible in any online conversation where science impinges on policy, and slashdot is hardly immune.
Whether or not human activity is substantially changing climate, for instance, is not a speculative matter. Its truth or falsehood is established science. Nevertheless there is organized activity to convince you of the plausibility of impossible propositions.
Splitting the difference is not as reasonable as it might appear, as the side which is lying is totally unconstrained by facts.
Any debate on whether humanity is substantially changing climate constitutes a failure of the society to use the information it has, of the scientific community to convey it, and of the special interests to restrain vicious antisocial activity on the part of some of its key members.
I do not specify which side is lying on this matter. It won't be hard for you to track down my opinion, but that's beside the point I'm making here. The point is that we are debating facts and not values or policies, which means that democracy is not functioning effectively.
This is occurring in the context of a number of similar failures to come to grips with reality in the absurd noise that passes for public discourse in America, and the irresponsible power games that pass for politics. Climate change probably isn't the most harmful case, yet, though it's competitive...
mt
Yes - thanks to the watering down the US demanded.
Lars T.
To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck
Even the enthusiasts of Kyoto describe only a temperature decline of 0.02C and 0.28C by the year 2050 - and that is optimistic. Kyoto is just boutique science. The model (hockey stick) used to justify Kyoto was proved wrong at MIT long ago. We have societies with corrupt and degenerate masses that have abandoned real character and they use stuff like kyoto to feel pseudo-virtuous about caring for things. Of course its it mostly used as justification to hate the US which people pseudo virtuous people addicted to judgement are prone too (and of course they feel sympathetic to the actual bad guys). Don't forget China, India and Australia also won't sign that rubbish. Now the Bird flu is going to kill millions and people better get focused on that and not be preoccupied with George Bush and Kyoto. The communist/liberal left has a lot of you folks conditioned to self destruct and feel heroic about it.
Just because something doesn't have guaranteed benefits does not mean there are none.
Here are three ways that, assuming your assertions are true, it still helps:
1. Having to trade emission output with other nations is a negative force (you have to negotiate, you may even have to pay), and therefore will want to avoid it. At some point, it will be more cost-effective to actually cut emissions.
2. Agreeing to it requires a nation to take stock of its contribution to global pollution. This may highlight problems not currently known or well measured. It also puts into place a system of actively addressing the issue of pollution, even if the treaty requires no changes to the nation's current industries.
3. (And this is the very reason America hasn't signed the treaty) It legitimizes the concern of pollution as a global issue that nations need to work together on. Signing Kyoto sets the stage for the world to address it again and work on Kyoto II. Additionally, you do not know that your assertions are actually true. Your assertions may turn out to be unfounded, but in the case that they are correct, the signatory nations will be motivated to work on another treaty to address those shortcomings.
In other words, you agree with me that the Kyoto treaty would have an effect, and disagree with your original statement that "The Kyoto Protocol always was and always will be useless."
I've pointed out ways it will help, and you've agreed that they would. You still don't think it's worth it, and really, I don't care if you think it's worth it or not. That's your own decision to make. I was only pointing out your premise was demonstrably wrong.
You can say the Kyoto Protocol doesn't do enough, or that it does more economic harm than it does environmental good. I disagree, but that's another topic altogether. But what you can't say is that it does absolutely no good.
If the treaty would change absolutely nothing in America (as you claim), then why don't we sign it? It would garner good will, and cost us nothing in return, right? Wrong. The reason we don't sign it is because the Bush administration does not want to legitimize the issue it addresses.
You mischaracterized my third point. I wasn't talking about "political brownie points" (a belittling term and in poor taste on your part). I wasn't talking about the government paying lip service on the PR front. I was talking about the government agreeing, in a meaningful way, that greenhouse gas emissions is a legitimate global issue that must be taken seriously. Even if the treaty would change nothing in the US, just signing the treaty would mean something, and it would pave the way for Kyoto II.
The US is not keeping out of the treaty because it would be "useless". No one in the Bush administration is saying, "we really need to do something, but the Kyoto Protocol doesn't do enough". They are saying that it does too much and that we are beholden to no one. Whatever happened to responsibility for our actions?
Again, I don't care if you agree with my support of the treaty, just don't mischaracterize it.
Most operational meteorologists I know feel human induced global warming is a bad theory, based on really bad modeling. The equations are incomplete as is the data set. Maybe we're worried because we use numeric weather prediction models on a daily basis and understand we can't always get the temperature right to within 2-3 degree over 24 hours, much less 24 years!
Academicians and theorists seem to support the idea in great numbers. These are people who haven't had to answer for a bad forecast in the supermarket.
Surely, human induced global warming is a political argument. Ask yourself, why have I never heard even one positive influence from global warming? In science, you should hear the good and the bad. In this argument, it's only the bad that gets publicized. If everyone in the Northern Plains, Northern Europe, New England, Canada and other cold weather climates get a longer growing season with lower winter heating costs, shouldn't that be weighed against tidal rises on Vanuatu?
Recently, after Katrina and the others, there has been a chorus trying to connect more hurricanes with global warming. Here's what Dr. William Gray says (he's the guy you hear quoted every year with seasonal hurricane predictions):
You can read more of Dr. Gray's thoughts in this excellent paper "Global Warming and Hurricanes."
I have posted this late. Positive modding to make it more visible would be appreciated.