Is Microsoft Silent Before a Deadly Storm?

M$FTjack writes "Discussions about Microsoft are all over the place, esp. with its recent delays to Vista. Some consider Microsoft to be doomed, while others say Microsoft is silent before a deadly storm. According to the article on CoolTechZone, the author believes that Microsoft will unleash an abundance of next-generation applications that will take everyone by surprise. From the article: 'So why am I citing all these examples? Simply because I think Microsoft is itself poised for a big leap. Despite all the rumors about Google and how it will topple Microsoft, I don't see that happening in the near future ... people (and I don't mean technology enthusiasts) will continue to purchase Microsoft products simply because of the sheer familiarity and comfort levels (BSoD et al) that they have with Microsoft software.'"

Comments

Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Whiney Mac Fanboy]

the author believes that Microsoft will unleash an abundance of next-generation applications that will take everyone by surprise.

No - thats the way Apple works (taking people by surprise with cool new stuff)

Microsoft announces products years in advance in an attempt to stop people buying the competitors products. When MS's software finally arrives, it tends to be..... dissapointing.

people (and I don't mean technology enthusiasts) will continue to purchase Microsoft products simply because of the sheer familiarity and comfort levels (BSoD et al) that they have with Microsoft software.'

No, this should read:

people (and I don't mean technology enthusiasts) will continue to purchase Microsoft products simply because of vendor lock in - they will continue to need to run specialised applications that only exist on the windows platform.

Quotes from the article:

Let's start with Vista. Fine, so it got delayed by a few months.

Gosh, that's the worst mispelling of six years I've ever seen!

Microsoft Office 2007. I don't know the last time I felt so good about a piece of software. It's just superb. While it doesn't have too many earth shattering features,

Thats just the problem - no new features compelling people to upgrade from office 2000 (or 97 for that matter)

Windows Live. The world is going ga-ga over Google Earth but it can never match the clarity that Microsoft's local.live.com has.

The only feature on Live Local I like is the birds eye view - and it doesn't work where I live! (large US cities only). A pity - as virtual earth problaby has better data then google earth, its just that google earth presents it nicer!

Microsoft is working overtime to get its search right. Its indexed search feature in Vista negates the need to install Google Desktop.

Riiiight...just like IE7 will mean no need to install firefox!

Analysis like this presents Google as the only competitor to MS - but the fact is their market is being chipped away from all sides, by a multitude of competitors.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[alexhs]

> Let's start with Vista. Fine, so it got delayed by a few months.

Gosh, that's the worst mispelling of six years I've ever seen!

It's not a mispelling, it's a twist. Vista only got delayed by a few months. Longhorn on the other hand... :)

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Anonymous Coward]

Microsoft announces products years in advance in an attempt to stop people buying the competitors products. When MS's software finally arrives, it tends to be..... dissapointing.

Indeed. To quote computerworld from 1995:

Last month, the U.S. District Court jurist in Washington suggested barring Microsoft from making vaporware announcements because doing so can allegedly freeze the market and discourage buyers from purchasing competing products.

This has always and continues to be their strategy. As far as I can tell, this time their entire marketing plan is

"Don't buy a Mac or install Ubuntu or else you might miss out on Vista's similar UI candy".

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[ichigo 2.0]

Let's start with Vista. Fine, so it got delayed by a few months.

Gosh, that's the worst mispelling of six years I've ever seen!

I don't remember MS promising to deliver Vista in 2001, and I doubt you have proof to the contrary... ;)

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[ergo98]

But yes, it was likely delayed more than a "few months" at least due to them deciding to throw out the XP kernel and base it on Server 2003's instead.

They didn't "decide" to make the kernel transition. Rather, much like Duke Nukem Forever, technology changed so much while they were in development that they saw now loss in changing the "engine". In the process they dumped much of the work they have completed, and started largely anew.

It was the result of the first iteration being a complete disaster.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Rocketship Underpant]

"What if MS is actually learning something from Apple's success and trying that strategy out?"

That probably wouldn't work because of their sales strategy. They sell companies expensive 3-year subscriptions with the promise that they'll get Microsoft's latest and greatest when it's ready; to make the sale, naturally, they have to hype the products in the pipeline.

If I recall correctly, Vista/Longhorn was supposed to be out in 2004, 3 years after XP. Some corporations paid a lot of money for a lot of nothing in 2001 and the following years, based on empty promises and grossly miscalculated shipping dates.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Zephyros]

You have a good point - Apple releases consumer products with sudden fanfare, while Microsoft has a lot of corporate customers.

However, while they have to be as open as they can about Vista, Office, and other corporate necessities, consider projects like the Origami, or a rumored XBox handheld. They could really benefit from an Apple-style buzz and launch.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Ucklak]

Cancelled my subscription last year because of it.
Last good piece of software was MapPoint2004. Now Google Earth does what I need from it.

Total raping of customers is what they're doing with this crappy Software Assurance.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Sivar]

>> Let's start with Vista. Fine, so it got delayed by a few months.

>>Gosh, that's the worst mispelling of six years I've ever seen!

>It's not a mispelling, it's a twist. Vista only got delayed by a few months. Longhorn on the other hand... :)

It's not mispelling, it's "misspelling"

Back on topic, I have been amazed at big a deal everyone is making about the Vista delays. How often are software projects late? Um, always?
Indeed, system vendors will be irate, but the idea of Microsoft being "doomed" as the Slashdot article states is patently absurd. Microsoft is such a massive empire; their fall would take decades and a long and consistant string of terrible screw-ups. A few products being late, even years late, might scratch their bottom-line, but it will hardly lead to their demise.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[jcr]

I have been amazed at big a deal everyone is making about the Vista delays. How often are software projects late?

It's a matter of scale, really. Longhorn is the biggest failed project in software development history, at least in the private sector. The previous record holder would be IBM Office Vision.

-jcr

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[suv4x4]

"Riiiight...just like IE7 will mean no need to install firefox!"

No, just the way IE4 meant you don't need to install Netscape4 (we all know what happened with Netscape after that).

Also IE7 *will* be a reason for a lot of business organisation that went to firefox to "relax" and go back to IE, because of the new limited rights mode that blocks exploits from happening even after vulnerabilities are discovered.

Also Firefox' team doesn't seem to get it that memory footprint and CPU use matters. I'm growing increasingly frustrated with those issues not addressed (I'm a regular Firefox user, IE6 sits idle doing nothing but testing my sites for IE6 compatibility), and I might move to Opera 9 when it's out.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[Ucklak]

You must be talking about the ribbon.
Still can't open open document formats.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[mliu]

Microsoft is working overtime to get its search right. Its indexed search feature in Vista negates the need to install Google Desktop.

Riiiight...just like IE7 will mean no need to install firefox!

Maybe not for enthusiasts or techies, but for the average computer user, IE7 exactly means no need to install firefox.

It takes a big improvement to make it worth someone's time to switch to a new piece of software and learn how to use it. By cutting into the difference in quality, it's simply not worth the average user's time to investigate alternative browsers. Heck, look at the present situation, where IE6 pretty much completely sucks, and still most people won't switch. Now imagine if IE7 copies all the good features from Firefox.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[radtea]

How often are software projects late? Um, always?

Only when they are managed by incompetents, the kind of losers who think that working longer hours is something other than a euphemism for low productivity.

No software project I have managed has been late by more than 10% of the total schedule. It just isn't that hard to deliver quality software, on time, every time. I've done it with research-oriented projects, whole applications, and feature upgrades, in Java and C++, working alone and managing largish (~10 developer) teams. I have been involved in very late, very large projects that I accurately predicted would be very late using basic quantitative estimation practices. Large projects are even easier to estimate than small projects because they average over so much diversity. Any two large projects are more similar than any two small projects.

There are two major factors that cause software projects to be late: technological optimism on the part of developers, and faith-based management and estimation practices. I hardly need to write about technological optimism here--we've all at one time or another gotten so enamoured of a new technology that we thought it would solve all our problems in half the time and not contain any gotchas.

Faith-based management practices are based on what people want to be true rather than what is true. They are the epistemology of a bible-believing Christian applied to logistics. We've all seen managers who want badly to believe that the schedule will be met, and so they lie to themselves and everyone one around them, and punish anyone who disagrees with their faith.

Quantitative estimation and management practices are not hard to learn or apply, but they continually come up with the "wrong" answers--ones that the bible-believers don't want to hear. When this happens the bible-believers characteristically make exceptionalist claims: "This is the chosen project! It is not not like all those other projects you based your estimates on! This project is special! It is outside the laws of time, space and logistics!"

Needless to say, like all bible-believers, they are impervious to facts, and so their projects crash merrily through deadline after deadline without any response except ill-conceived attempts to force their minnions and themselves to work ever-longer hours.

The solution to all of this is the Law of Common Humanity: We are just like Them. If industry data from the past century across a dozen different fields shows that working more than 35 or 40 hours a week results in significantly lower productivity, then that is probably true of us as well. If the quantitative estimation practices described in Rapid Development gave reasonable values for others, they probably will for us. If the causes of failure identified in Stephen Flowers excellent book Software Failure: Management Failure caused other projects to fail, they will probably cause ours to fail if we let them.

It is clear that Microsoft has never learned this lesson. They have been famous for late projects since Word1.0 two decades ago, and yet like bible-believers everywhere, they keep to the faith of their forefathers despite the wreckage it produces. On this basis, the odds of Microsoft being poised to unleash a river of innovation is simply not plausible.

Re:Microsoft is never silent before the storm.

[anaesthetica]

You're right. I ran a Nexis search, and the earliest mention of Longhorn (July 30, 2001) has Microsoft saying late 2002 (if everything goes right) or early 2003 otherwise.

I doubt it

[suso]

Given the internal conflicts within Microsoft between application teams and the fact that the community gets leaked memos and rumors from time to time about inner goings on, I would say no, they are not working on anything special. The amount of human resources required to develop these "next gen apps" that they allude to within Microsoft would most likely generate some rumors that would have given us such an indication. Microsoft is under too much of a microscope for something like this to slip by. If it is a new development, then it will be a while before we see such apps. Besides, Microsoft's marketing technique seems to be based on people knowing what are going to be in their applications before they are released. I think this is just wishful thinking.

maybe stormy silence before a Death?

[yagu]

Key moment in the slashdot article:

Despite all the rumors about Google and how it will topple Microsoft, I don't see that happening in the near future ... people (and I don't mean technology enthusiasts) will continue to purchase Microsoft products simply because of the sheer familiarity and comfort levels (BSoD et al) that they have with Microsoft software.

I think the user community along with the technical community approaches the tipping point with Microsoft, especially with more and more alternatives like web based applications. Microsoft may join that fray, but they've sandbagged themselves, and they may not recover so nimbly this time (though I'll never count Microsoft out).

Microsoft has spent so much ill-will capital, the collective technology users' almost (almost) want Microsoft to go away. Microsoft is still powerful, but a lot of that power today is inertia as Microsoft tries to think of ways to re-invent itself yet again in time to maintain its control. I hope it doesn't.

Meanwhile, users (though they don't quite yet know it) are offered virtually every function as a web application, at least for ninety percent, and in many ways the new applications surpass the old resident application paradigm for convenience, service, and ease of use and maintenance.

Re:maybe stormy silence before a Death?

[caffeinemessiah]

Microsoft has spent so much ill-will capital, the collective technology users' almost (almost) want Microsoft to go away.

I wouldn't agree. The collective users minus the knowledgeable community are just happy that the "media center edition windows" that came equipped with their dell lets them do all this "new" cool stuff. don't count out a dazzling UI, fancy-sounding jargon or some other gimmick to win back the ignorant hordes, because I really doubt that true innovation will come by and kill or beat some of the great products already out there.

Either that, or look out for a deadly string of buyouts. Honestly, I love using Visio because it feels so different from the rest of the Office suite. Things just work sometimes -- made me finally give up xfig. If I'm not mistaken Visio was a company that made ...Visio...and then got bought out by MS.

That is exactly how I work

[Mr.Dippy]

Sometimes when I eat a lot of burritos and drink a lot of beer I won't say anything for like 20 minutes and then I unleash my deadly storm! So if you see me silent in a taco bell then run!

Where's the picket sign? DOOM

[AviLazar]

Come on, MS doomed? Is the other side of the picket sign "End of the world"? MS is huge, they have a HUGE customer base. They are not going out of business anytime soon. They have TONS and TONS of highly qualified techies who are working to make new products that MANY people will buy.

Re:Where's the picket sign? DOOM

[Itninja]

They have TONS and TONS of highly qualified techies

So with the 'obese American' factor figured in, that amounts to about, what, 20 guys?

Re:Where's the picket sign? DOOM

[ergo98]

Just because you (and others) may not like MS does not mean they dont have tons of ingenious/creative people working for them.

You do realize, don't you, that it's possible for someone to like Microsoft, or to be neutral about them, and still to predict that they have tough times ahead? Building a caricature of everyone disagreeing being a pro-Linux anti-MS nut is both incorrect and offensive. I'm a Microsoft Empower member, my business does consulting largely for Microsoft SQL Server, and I continue to pursue Microsoft certifications, yet there isn't a chance in hell that I'd hold Microsoft stock right now, nor would I recommend that someone accept an employment agreement that relies upon options as the primary draw. Demand cold hard cash or look for work with a competitor.

Re:I trust Microsoft completely.....

[Necoras]

Microsoft is a lot like McDonalds... Both are global forces and probably aren't going anywhere soon. But you feel kinda guilty after buying anything from either of them, and you usually have a bad taste in your mouth for days...

Windows Vista = "Meh"

[jellomizer]

Besides Interface and Technical Stuff I really don't see the advantage of Windows Vista. Unlike the move from windows 3.1 to 95 when there was the issue of better Internet Connectivity, which everyone wanted, and "Real" Multitasking. The move from 95,98,Me,2000,XP to Vista will not have much of a difference. Sure in the long run they will be better off because of security patches and supported software for the newer version. But if they are happy with what they have now there isn't anything I can see that they really want or need in Longhorn that they don't have now. There is no big push to technologies like the Internet. It is just an improved same old same old. The reason for the Huge Migration from 3.1 to 95 was the promise of better Networking support making it easier to connect to ISP (For anyone who used winsock would realize), and "real" multitasking which allowed people to run long tasks in the background while doing something else.
But what is in Vista, Better Graphics, Some slight speed improvement on already fast computers, some things a little easier to use, better security for a little while. I rate all of them with a big "Meh" in my book and it will make it hard to convince people they they need to upgrade soon.

Re:Windows Vista = "Meh"

[TechGooRu]

Another one missing the point. While other companies are focusing and refocusing their efforts on eye candy and "sleeker" interfaces, Microsoft continually hits balls out of the park in the enterprise. Windows Vista is about security enhancements and enterprise management. Any techie worth a damn on the microsoft side of things knows that. Anyone on the outside, including Linux fanboys like yourself completely miss the point. Active Directory, Group Policy, and Systems Management Server are what drive Microsoft sales. Enterprise management is what drives sales and generates HUGE revenue streams. They figured this out 6 years ago after NT 4 was a bust. Now they have a 5 year head start on YOU. Good luck catching them.

Get it strait: The new interface is nothing more than a bonus, and a much needed upgrade of a bonus at that. Look under the hood, and you'll be surprised. Now, stop regurgitating the same old BS we've been hearing for years, and tell us something that's of value.

Re:Windows Vista = "Meh"

[einhverfr]

Anyone on the outside, including Linux fanboys like yourself completely miss the point. Active Directory, Group Policy, and Systems Management Server are what drive Microsoft sales.

Is it just me or is Microsoft actually catching up to where *nix has been for twenty years with Project Athena from MIT.....

Directory services, Kerberos, automated maintenance pushed out to workstations (via GPO's in Windows).... Now if we could only deal with insane file locking strategies that WIndows uses, add symlinks, etc. we would have a real OS. Alternatively, if they could add the really cool clustering capabilities VMS had, that would be cool too.

Right now, Windows is sort of a VMS-lite with a nicer GUI but lacking all the enterprise management features that have existed in the enterprise OS world for twenty years.

The *Only* reason what Microsoft is making inroads here is because UNIX/Linux geeks don't really know what their OS is capable of.

What's really being said

[dkleinsc]

From what it sounds like, here's what this article is really saying: Please please please please keep the MSFT stock up so I can sell it for a profit!

Beware Office 2007, it is that good.

[LibertineR]

Office 2007 is absolultely killer software. It is really the first time since Office 95, where it is a must-upgrade. Betas are pretty stable, the new interfaces are well thought-out, its good stuff.

Re:Beware Office 2007, it is that good.

[1u3hr]

Office 2007 is absolultely killer software. It is really the first time since Office 95, where it is a must-upgrade.

Must-upgrade the computer, RAM, monitor, video card.

I really would like to know what are the killer features that are so irresistible to you and the article writer. There really isn't much you can't do, in terms of least effort to get words on paper and make it look presentable, that you you couldn't do with Winword 2, or WordPerfect 6, 10 or so years ago. If a feature is important, you learn where it is and/or create a shortcut for it. (I was doing that in WordStar almost 20 years ago.) I know one answer will be "collaborative tools". I've yet to meet anyone who uses these in real life. It requires a unifirm level of competence in a whole group, and you just don't get that. Usually it will be the boss who just sends back files via fax with remarks scribbled on them. But most users are still pushing out one or two page memos, same as their great-grandparents did on Underwood typewriters over a century ago.

Re:Beware Office 2007, it is that good.

[Anonymous Coward]

Office 2007 is absolultely killer software.

and let me guess, you're posting using its spell checker!

Re:Beware Office 2007, it is that good.

[lucabrasi999]

What does it give me that Office 2003 doesn't?

Well, according to the FAQ's that Microsoft provides on Office 2007:

What's new in the 2007 Microsoft Office system?

The 2007 release presents newly designed menus and toolbars as well as new features that businesses and individual computer users can use to complete tasks more quickly and easily.

What's new in Office Word 2007?

Office Word 2007 includes new tools that help you create more professional-looking documents in less time, build documents more easily from frequently used content, and produce professional-looking letters, proposals, datasheets, and other documents fast. Quick formatting capabilities help you rapidly apply a new look and feel to your documents, and the new Live Preview capabilities give you a quick look at any changes you make.

Obviously, it's time to pull out the check book and send more of your money to Redmond.

Re:Beware Office 2007, it is that good.

[Haeleth]

What does it give me that Office 2003 doesn't?

An interface that doesn't suck so badly? Seriously, is there anyone who doesn't look at the menus in Office 2003 and despair? I can't imagine how the average computer user copes; presumably they learn, very laboriously, where in the maze of submenus and dialogs they can find the five features they need most often, and then pray they'll never need to do anything different in future.

I've watched intelligent, computer-literate people struggle with Word 2003, and it's not pretty. Even basic actions like getting the spellchecker to use the right language cause massive headaches for people who haven't sat down and literally memorised the menu system. (Sure, it's obvious once you know where to look, but it's nothing like intuitive.)

By all accounts, the new interface will mean things end up in much more logical places, and can be found with far fewer clicks. If it lives up to the hype, it will actually make Word (and all the other word processors, once they clone the new interface) a much pleasanter tool to use.

Re:Beware Office 2007, it is that good.

[CrayDrygu]

The killer feature is this: the first major UI overhaul in Office since...well, ever.

How much of an improvement is it? Testers are discovering "brand new features" that have been there since Office 95, because they can finally _find_ the settings. No more traversing confusing menus and dialogs to change formatting options. Everything's grouped intelligently, instead of doing things like dumping anything from spell check to collaboration to mail merge into a "Tools" menu. Style-based formatting has been made easier. And best of all, no more toolbars that appear and disappear, and no more task pane.

If you want the details, read the "Why the UI" series in Jensen Harris's blog (he's the program manager for the Office "user experience" team) -- http://blogs.msdn.com/jensenh/archive/category/117 20.aspx

Re:I trust Microsoft completely.....

[cerberusss]

Strange. When reading your post, I mentally replaced Microsoft with the word "women". And it still made sense.

SBD

[Junior J. Junior III]

Silent? Deadly? I don't know, but they sure stink.

Polishing Apples

[djdavetrouble]

well, this is sooo true.....why a mp3 player is nothing more than a really small player piano....
with a battery instead of a foot pedal. and a digital file instead of a roll of paper with holes punched
into it. and instead of vibrating strings, there are little cones that vibrate directly next to your ear.
But a player piano never looked so shiny and cute and a player piano never played "Fuck the Police" or "Too Drunk to Fuck" ( I don't think ).
This is the genius of apple !
so, where is my book deal.

Nothing to see here...

[Morpeth]

...move along. Seriously, why even bother posting such an article? It's just going to be typical /. slamfest, like every other one that crops up the minute MS is mentioned.

Which means, all the MS haters/flamers posts will get modded up as insightful or interesting (and will by in large be neither), anyone saying anything contrary will be left untouched or modded down. Nothing new or valuable will be said, all the same flames will be rehashed yet again.

And I'm sorry, love them or hate them, but to say MS is doomed and going to fold is beyond stupid, with no basis in reality. If you have any sense of the scope of their software suites and the size of their user base, no one in their right mind would say that. You might WANT it to happen, but hope and reality are not the same thing

Tamagochi addon

[Petersson]

Maybe Microsoft is reviving Tamagotchi technology http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamagotchi and is incorporating it into Vista. In other words, if user will not take care of the system (defragment disk, remove viruses, worms and spyware, apply patches) the system will die.

No, wait, this is the way Windows already works..

How do you tell?

[Godai]

My only question -- after reading the article -- is how one would tell the difference between a Microsoft that is quietly amassing a host of breakthrough technologies and a Microsoft that is quietly (and desperately) wracking its collective head about what to do about its competitor?

More to the point, how often has Microsoft really come out with something innovative that took the world by storm? It's released rehashes of products it bought from other people, but I can't think of many cutting edge, out-of-nowhere advancements that have come from them. It's not really their core competancy is it? Which isn't to say they can't produce some slick stuff when they want to, but rather they're more often riding the coat tails of smaller trailblazers (who they either crush or swallow in the following years).