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Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?
simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
how can they suggest those numbers for the ps3 and wii if they haven't even launched yet?
Look at current console trends. PS2 has XBOX and GC significantly outsold.
360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
120 characters for a sig? That's bloody useless.
how can you predict consumer preference? who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?
Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
My work here is dung.
Parents won't be able to afford the $600 next gen units so...
Wii FTW!!!
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Bite Me Fanboy!!
I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.
currently I'm not a subscriber, yet I get news updates from what, 3 years in the future where 2/3 of the systems aren't even out yet?
seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?
I really don't get why this was posted.
as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
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Ewwwwww, coconut...
I think Game Informer had it right in this month's magazine.
if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base
Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.
But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
nil
The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.
Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?
Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?
Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.
Only problem is that the Wii isn't the GC. Sure, the proc and graphics may not be a major new innovation, but the hype about the Wii has always been the new controller. Speaking as a marketing student, Nintendo has done a very capable job of marketing the new product, keeping it in the public eye, and giving encouraging price point nods. I predict this analyst prediction will be totally off the wall. Can I get paid too, since I have just as much insight on the yet-to-be-released PS3 and Wii as this writer?
Meh, a real sig would take too long, and I have an MMORPG to play with....
As someone who sold literally hundreds of Gamecubes working retail, the people that buy Gamecubes are not enthusiasts looking for a little engine that could, they are predominantly parents looking for the system that offers the most kid friendly titles and the lowest price.
There are those that pick them up for wonderful titles like RE4 and SSBM but at least in my experience they're not in the majority.
Rigth now the average gamer doesn't want inovation, he just wants flashy graphics and a good FPS that a noob could pick up and win in, Nintendo is trying to sell in their style, but their style will not match up with the average gamer community
And that's why the prediction is likely wrong: it looks like he's predicting numbers based on what the "average gamer" will do. Nintendo's not targeting the "average gamer". Neither is Sony, for that matter: $500 is outside of what the average gamer will pay for a console.
The "non-gamer" community is still much larger than the "average gamer" community. If Nintendo manages to convince a good portion of them to buy a Wii, they'll dominate in terms of market share.
The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.
If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.
The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
imho, ps3 will be too niche-market to compete well. $600 for the base system and $100 per game is getting quite pricey.
it will be xbox360 vs wii. higher quality graphics, online play vs innovative games and play style. the 360 will be out earlier, but the wii will be released cheaper than the 360 could probably ever become. i'm putting the wii on top with this one. i know i'll be buying one (and not a 360/ps3).
And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Where is he drawing his conclusions?
Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?
The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.
Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.
If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.
Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
http://saveie6.com/
The same way all good--and bad--predictions are made: They made them up. ;-)
You couldn't be more wrong. Among Nostradamus' many cryptic and undated predictions, there were
thinly disguised sales numbers for video game consoles, a decade into the new millenium.
Check the quatrains, my friend. It is ALL There
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I've heard the opposite. One person saying they're getting a 360, one person saying they *might* get a PS3 after a price drop, and lots of people (including the two above) talking about getting a Wii, some of them even non-gamers.
But that's not the real point. The point is that you can't go only on your own circle of friends. That's a somewhat skewed population. Why do you think a lot of new products and services are tested in the midwest (Pepsi Clear comes to mind)? The midwest, namely the Ohio and Indiana area, has a very mixed culture. I can drive through a fairly large town and see all different kinds of people from all different corners of the world (not that you can't necessarily do this in say NYC, but it's definitely more widespread here). A company can save a lot of time and effort by simply releasing a product there first. If it fails, scrap it. If it does well, start releasing it elsewhere.
All of these market share predictions are moot until the product is actually on the shelves, and the general populus actually knows they exist. Right now it's mostly limited to tech geeks and gamers.
Also, I've seen just as many Xbox and Sony fanboys on here as Nintendo fanboys.
All that being said.... Wii FTW!
Everything I say is a lie. Except that... and that... and that, and that, and that, and that... and that.
I'm getting a little tired of analysts telling us how the next generation console war is going to play out over the next few years, especially when what they're suggesting seems to all but ignore the level of interest shown by the general public in each product.
Whilst a good handful of people I know are very happy with their Xbox360s, and a one or two are even looking forward to getting their hands on a PS3, without exception everyone I've spoken to about the Wii is very excited about it, and has every intention of buying one soon after release. There's a genuine enthusiasm for the product, which isn't dampened by a high console price like the PS3.
I mean, even Microsoft and Sony are expecting people to buy a Wii as a second machine. If we're talking basic number of units sold, it's hard to see how Nintendo aren't going to quickly take the lead.
The Gamecube had few real world advantages over the other consoles in the last/current generation of consoles, and without the help of a huge Microsoft or Sony scale marketing campaign, it's not hard to see why it was a relative failure.
This time around, there's the (expected) significantly lower price point, the fact that it truly offers something different in the form of a new controller, a download service with a good solid 20 year back catalogue of games, and of course interraction with the DS. Any one of these could made quite a difference, but together, I think we're looking at a definite reclaiming of ground by Nintendo in this round.
That is exactly right. I think that innovation (touch generation and all that jazz) is going to shake things up. I have friends that have never spent a buck on video games buying DS Lites. They love having _fun_ with the device, playing the games they actually want to play like Sudoku, Brain Age, etc. Fun little diversions from an inexpensive little device.
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I'm not sure. If I were to guess, I'd say it would be very close, say... 40% for the 360, and 35% for the Wii and 25% for the PS3 (keep in mind this means more sales in terms of $ for the PS3 than the Wii). Something like that.
/. games page. That seems to be all it takes.
360 has a big advantage from being first; they'll have not only a fanbase but a lot of titles available by the time the other two launch, and with that momentum they'll get an even bigger fanbase and more titles. It's a vicious cycle.
the PS3 has the strongest brand recognition, but Sony has made what is in my opinion a shitload of stupid moves. It's not just the high price, but the actual cost of making the console which guarantees that price won't go down for a while. Apparantly it's not the easiest console to develop for either, so the "variety" card that the PS2 had will probably get passed to the 360 this gen. The Blu-Ray playing aspect is the dumbest part. It's too early to put that in a console. As far as I'm concerned, the first couple years of the PS3 will have few games and a small fanbase. It won't really have a proper "launch" for a couple years when they're cheaper to manufacture, and by then the vicious cycle thing will stop them from doing too well for this generation. I guess I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
I love Nintendo's products and have no doubt that I'll love the Wii. They'll get a good amount of money from us hardcore types (the price and concept makes it go well with either of the other consoles). Many kids are picky and demand a certain console, but many parents just won't pay the price of a PS3 no matter how much their kids scream. Two things I'm not sure about for the wii are: third-party support, and selling this thing to casual gamers (they need to put up Wii kiosks in malls, and I don't mean in game stores.).
I'm just guessing all of this. Maybe I can call my self an analyst and get on this post quoted on the
"When the atomic bomb goes off there's devastation...but when the atomic bong goes off there's celebraaaaation!"
The last console that I ever owned was a Sega Genesis and I am planning on buying a Wii.
Update the numbers, guys! The Wii will sell 6,800,001.
There are 0x40000000 types of people: those who understand 32-bit IEEE 754 floating point, and those who don't.
Leaving Nintendo aside, as they've at the fringes of TV-console gaming at the moment this battle is basicly between Microsoft and Sony and quite frankly, what do Sony expect? I mean, (speaking as a PSP owner and PS2 owner) when you bring a console to market 18 months late, have a price over double that of the competator and show the sheer bold-faced greed and lack of respect for the customer that Sony has (have you seen the price of PSP games? They're DOUBLE the price of DS and often more expensive that TV-console counterparts).
And down the frontpage I see an article about Sony increasing game prices - then remember the DRM spyware thing - what is this? I think Sony is just bleeding the existing customer base dry because they know that the PS3 is a dud and need all the revenue they can. And don't get me started on the crappyness of the potentially excellent PSP firmware (Disabling Homebrew? Can't play MP3 from browser? SLOW browser? Outdated flash when launched?)
Wake up Sony, you're a failing company - both from an internal and external point of view - your products are late, you over-control your customers and treat them like dirt.
There was a time when Sony was the only brand that i'd but - why? - QUALITY.
Good riddance - i'd love it if they lost this 'war' because they don't deserve to win. If only I didn't loathe M$ so much i'd be buying me a 360.
SONY - wake up and smell the coffee.
Forget Blu-ray, no one will pay that price for a console just for a pseudo-functional movie player (remember how crappy the PS2 DVD player is!!)
Respect your customers.
Get the PS3 to market at a price that will actually sell some units.
You're not getting Nintendo's marketing strategy, are you? The Wii is not marketed specifically to the current user-base of current-gen consoles. Sure they want the hard-core gamers, but, they really want to tap into the casual and non-gamers, which their new system may very well appeal to.
People need to understand that analysts like this are paid to look at the numbers and make their best guess at what will happen. Will it be dead on? No. Will it be close? Maybe, maybe not. Estimates far enough out in time are generally understood by people who look at these things to be best guesses and little more. Too many unexpected things fly out of no where to be dead on.
That being said, it does give the industry some information so that they can lay initial plans for the next 5 to 10 years. (Yes, a number of companies do plan at least this far in advance despite the speed at which the industry changes.)
I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following
Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.
The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.
Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.
That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.
Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.
And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.
PS3 isn't launched. Based on current sales the leading console in 2009 will be the PS2 (which is outselling XBox 360). This may sound like a flip joke, but it's actually a fairly likely scenario. Remember the PSOne? It was only just discontinued.
Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).
In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.
Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
1. Innovative new controls. Will it be fun? Who knows... but a lot of people will try it out to see.
2. Aforementioned price point.
3. Backward controller compatibility. You can use your Cube controller for games that support it (ala the awesomeness that will be the next Smash Bros).
4. Virtual console. Sure you can get these as illegal roms, but I have this strange desire to compensate Nintendo for finally giving me this option. Ironically enough, I'm probably looking forward to playing the old classics more than some of the Wii games.
But the real reason I like Nintendo is because they're sticking to what they're good at... making gaming systems. Their console isn't made to play music, watch super HD content, bake bread, take out the trash, etc... It's made to (gasp) play games. And because of that, it costs (gasp) a third the price of the PS3 all in wonder system, packed full of features that most people really don't want *cough* Blu Ray *cough*. If I wanted to do all that, I'd buy a computer... which I do anyway, plus my computer is better at doing those things than some bloated, overpriced console.
So I wouldn't count the Wii out just yet...
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It's a very dark ride.
Jason Anderson, Xbox Canada 's Group Marketing Manager, predicts success for the xbox. 0.0 JASON ANDERSON IS WITH XBOX MARKETING CANADA. !?!?!?!
Look, this is NOT news. It's an opinion, and it's a terrible one at that. I don't read this website to learn "how badly zonk thinks the xbox will beat everything else". I come here to read about new CPU architectures, space exploration tech, cutting lasers, and attacks on freedom of information, etc etc. Leave your opinions in your room, Zonk. You're a news writer, correct? I don't think anyone wants this site becoming like ****ing Fox news, those pigs. Now, on the other hand, I'm not writing a news report, so I can tell you that I think the Wii will do a lot better than these M$ fanboys think. They have an excellent plan, unlike the brute-force plan that Sony and M$ always follow.
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