Slashdot Mirror


NPR Looks to Technological Singularity

Rick Kleffel writes to tell us that NPR is featuring a piece with both Vernor Vinge and Cory Doctorow looking at the possibility of the "technological singularity" in the near future. Wikipedia defines a technological singularity as a "hypothetical "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development. Past this event horizon, following the creation of strong artificial intelligence or the amplification of human intelligence, existing models of the future cease to give reliable or accurate answers. Futurists predict that after the Singularity, posthumans and/or strong AI will replace humans as the dominating force in science and technology, rendering human-specific social models obsolete."

98 of 484 comments (clear)

  1. I for one... by Linkiroth · · Score: 5, Funny

    ...welcome our new post-human overlords. (Somebody had to say it.)

    1. Re:I for one... by buswolley · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Of course I do. I just didn't write clearly, because what I meant was fairly difficult to communicate. I'll rephrase.

      Humans are proud of their abilities. They fashion themselves to be the most capable species on earth. If, in the future we are outclassed by artificial intelligence, it seems likely that the we will feel ashamed of ourselves, in a sense. When first-class athletes go past their prime, they are likely to retire out of the game. They do not want to compete as a second-class athlete. Advanced AI could really hurt our feelings, and spawn a desire to give up. I mean, what's the point of life if we aren't on top?

      My reply to this was simply: Die fighting for those that you love.

      Of course, in such a scenario we might be faced with the choice of enhancing ourselves through biology and cybernetics, so as to compete with our "AI over-lords." But such a choice may really alter what it means and feels to be human. I am not saying whether this is good or bad, but I am saying that if we do decide to take that course we will be sacrificing the human experience for the sake of preservation of the species.

      So, I wasn't truly talking about natural selction, and I should have left it out of my previous post. Evolution, however, is WHAT I am talking about. Evolution simply means: A gradual process in which something changes into a different and usually more complex or better form. (from dictionary.com) Of course, biology uses that term within the framework of genetic change over time.

      --

      A Good Troll is better than a Bad Human.

    2. Re:I for one... by Maserati · · Score: 2

      Just one piece of advice, never create what you can't control.

      --
      Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1992-1951
    3. Re:I for one... by kfg · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The Laws of Robotics . . .and a great big "OFF" button would be a start.

      Although I now post under my actual initials, in my day I've had two screen aliases. Yours is one of them. It feels kinda weird to reply to it.

      KFG

    4. Re:I for one... by Maserati · · Score: 2, Funny

      Then I probably have you to thank for registering this nick on dozens and dozens of boards.

      --
      Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1992-1951
    5. Re:I for one... by Jim_Callahan · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Um, enhancing ourselves through biology and cybernetics would be well within what defines us as human. Using the biological definition, we're still human as long as our descendents can breed with each other. Using the "man vs. beast" definition, the use of technology to make us greater than our natural abilities permits is what defines us as human in the first place. Even the modern concept of 'soul' would not particularly be violated by prosthetic addition, because we've drifted away from the midaeval soul as the sum total of a beings identity and moved to the hippieish 'ghost in the machine' definition of soul.

      I'll also note that your whole argument stems from the assumption that the human race will be in some sort of competition with its tools. Frankly, there's no reason to think anything will compete with us as a race unless we design it that way. As individuals, sure, you'll lose your job if a robotic assembly line can do it better, but you only got the job in the first place because of the existing technology that let you steal the job from the rug weaver in africa (or whatever). Live by the sword, die by the sword.

      --
      ...it's really a sad day for America when we require a goddamn ACT OF CONGRESS to make our DVD players work properly. ~
    6. Re:I for one... by buswolley · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Of course we already enhance ourselves. Eye glasses, mp3 players etc, clothing.

      The thread was assuming that a super AI was formed, and that they would rule over us. Maybe silly, maybe not.

      The point of my post was simply this. We may someday be capable of artificially modifying ourselves post-conception in ways that would make that person alien to the un-modded humans. Meaning such modifications as computers working intimately with our brains. Genetic modifications for suer intelligence, and extra digits. Things like, steel reinforced limbs, motor enhanced muscles..three breasts for porno flicks. Things like adding new sensory capacities in the brain.

      If such things are possible, then their lives..the human experience may no longer have anything remotely human about it.

      I understand what you mean. We are evolving now. Change is the norm, and thus anything that changes within us is still human. Fine. But that human may be vastly different than in the past. Your argument is merely taxonomic. Human is merely a label to you? No doubt we came from hominids and from rodent before that, but that does not mean that the previous rodent experience is comparable to that of our current human experience? The experience is different. If we change ourselves radically, and QUICKLY then our experience will be different.

      --

      A Good Troll is better than a Bad Human.

    7. Re:I for one... by 70Bang · · Score: 2, Interesting



      What cracks me up it seeing "spoilers" below, but within view, as though one is supposed to skim past some undefined period of time.

      Has anyone failed to remember ROT13? If Wiki* had a ROT13 control, you could click it and see plaintext, clicked again, return to the original material.
      sigh.
      p.s.
      I'll believe the singularity when I start seeing "All your base are belong to us" and yanking power plug doesn't faze it.

    8. Re:I for one... by marcello_dl · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Ethically speaking, you have the right to resist indeed. What's missing from the discussion (and for TFA if I'd only read it) is one of the most important factors that make singularity a thing to welcome, if you have the guts to modify yourself, or to refuse no matter what: the forces driving our development.

      It might be we still follow the survival of the fittest rule.

      But then, how come I sense this disturbing trend that is stripping the single man of all his cultural and material property?

      Men in the past had access to renewable water sources because there was a different kind of pollution, didn't fear the sun because of the ozone layer depletion, didn't pollute the land with genetically engineered crop or chemicals. Culturally speaking the trend is stripping man of every set of values which is not money: French revolution fucked the aristocracy. Fascist trolls made us hate nationalism associating it with violence and ignorance (this is an european perspective, in fact usa people were more nationalist, but now you have your own bush troll). Global media fucked home-bred traditions in the west, while Communism did the same in a more violent and explicit way in the east. Corporations have stripped us of science. Scientific experiments in total privacy and patents make not science, but occultism. Now everything is poised to strip us of religion, as the battle is between islamic violent and sexist integralism, neo-con crusaders, zionists will end up with people worn by WWIII refusing anything that remotely sounds like faith.

      This is a brain dump not an analysis. Am I wrong? I sure hope i am. But think about it when you have to evaluate any change marketed as "progress".

      --
      ---- MISSING MISCELLANEOUS DATA SEGMENT --- [sigdash] trolololol
    9. Re:I for one... by AGMW · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Now everything is poised to strip us of religion ...

      You say that like it might be a bad thing.

      Religion is all well and good when it is a personal thing and mayebe OK when you are following the teachings of people (or things) long gone, but once it forms into clumps or groups of people, and it would seem especially once these groups of people start following the teachings of people who are alive now, we start getting problems. It's the high priests, the living leaders of religions who decide they need to spread the word of their god at the point of their follower's swords and that's when the trouble starts!

      --
      Eclectic beats from Leeds, UK
      handmadehands.co.uk
    10. Re:I for one... by marcello_dl · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yes this needs clarification indeed. I don't know about other religions, but for christianity things have gotten out of control long ago. Luke 9:5 doesn't mention any coercition towards those who refuse to believe, instead we had crusades (and the spanish inquisition that nobody expected :) ).

      If people refuse religion and it's their choice, no problem. If external interests want people to obey only to one value and make people either hate religion or follow its distortion, that's a problem. Another problem is that religion becomes something that divides, and divided people who fights among themselves are not likely to fight other battles which might be vital, like the one to be free human beings.

      I am no supporter of aristocracy either, but I like even less that the power coming from being landowner be destroyed by the almighty buck. Why? because the buck is easily concentrated in the hands of the few and becomes dangerous. In fact, those having the real money, those producing the money (ie banks and the fractional reserve), are interested in acquiring power and real goods, since they now better than anybody that money is worthless per se. Power and goods that won't be ours anyway.

      --
      ---- MISSING MISCELLANEOUS DATA SEGMENT --- [sigdash] trolololol
    11. Re:I for one... by moeinvt · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "The thread was assuming that a super AI was formed, and that they would rule over us . . . "

      Maybe it's better to be ruled by artificical intelligence than by the natural stupidity that rules over us now.

    12. Re:I for one... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      You could already be ruled by the machines. They could be too smart for you to let on. Skewing Internet search results here, subtly controlling the price of commodities. You can't say for sure.

    13. Re:I for one... by giblfiz · · Score: 2, Insightful

      As David Brin would say: Shame on you for thinking that there was a golden age in the past. The only golden age we will ever have is one that we build.

      In the past men polluted as aggressively as they could. There was no thought at all given to protecting the planet. People if anything are much, much cleaner now. The key difference is that we are slowly but surely running out of space. We are not worse polluters than our ancestors, we are just being held to an effectively higher standard. (Don't get me wrong, I think it is vital that we meet it) Oh and G.M. crops are about as far away from pollution as you can get. Don't be such a neo-phoebe, if you don't want us all to starve your going to have suck it up and accept some G.M. crops, its another case of higher populations chaining the standards.

      As far as the stripping of man's values, I don't think you are looking at the horrors of history quite carefully enough. Man has been cruel and brutal for almost his entire history. It is only very recently that democracy, the abolishment of slavery, or the emancipation of women has occurred. Torture was considered a defacto standard for basically all of human history. We have come a long way, and I think we are still on an upward trend.

      I will be the first to admit that we are in a local valley. Things are worse in a lot of ways than they were 5-10 years ago from the perspective of cultural progress. But if you thing that this is the beginning of the end you are being overly pessimistic and melodramatic. Sure things are bad, and I bet that they are going to get a little worse in the next two years or so, but then they will start to get better.

      My god do I see the seeds for a bright future being planted today. A future of liberty, equality and trust. Technology is starting to enable some really increadable community tools. People are waking up and seeing that they need to play a part in the way the environment is handled. And we really are all getting smarter.

      The trend is still up! Its just the moment which is down. Honestly the only thing that scares me is the mass retirement of the baby-boomers, but hopefully that won't hit us too hard.

  2. Great predictions of the unpredictable by TwentyLeaguesUnderLa · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So, they first say that you can't predict what'll happen after that singularity because The World Will Be So Different Than Now, and then proceed to give predictions of what'll happen after that singularity?

    Brilliant, real brilliant.

    1. Re:Great predictions of the unpredictable by hackwrench · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What they're talking about is the failure to extrapolate out using models. It's easy to say that the future will have this or that generalized feature, but hard when you move to greater and greater detail.

    2. Re:Great predictions of the unpredictable by Dasher42 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ever seen the indie film "Waking Life"? There's a segment where a post-humanist goes on about how predatory relationships will be obsolete in the post-singularity world.

      I saw that and thought of a recent simulation of an evolving ecosystem. Autotropes, herbivores, predators and parasites all evolved independently in a simulation that simply required growth and survival. I think they are naturally emergent phenomena. You can even explain the existence of defense attorneys and cold-call telephone soliciting this way.

    3. Re:Great predictions of the unpredictable by sgt_doom · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Wow!! Futurists predict.... Gosh, that's certainly got a lot of gravity behind it, given the rather obvious fact that "futurists" have been completely wrong on all their predictions to date, except, of course, those who claim - after the fact - to have been right.... My faith in "futurists'" predictions would be, ah, maybe equal to my faith in Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle on their knowledge and preditions of that Iraqi war (actually, invasion and occupation).

    4. Re:Great predictions of the unpredictable by Angostura · · Score: 2, Insightful

      More amusingly, the summary gives the impression that existing models of the future actually provide accurate, meaningful answers.

      To which I feel compelled to reply "Bwhuahahahaha"

    5. Re:Great predictions of the unpredictable by fbjon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yes, but the model they're using ("I imagine this could possibly happen..") is already horribly failure-prone in the first place.

      --
      True confidence comes not from realising you are as good as your peers, but that your peers are as bad as you are.
  3. Since when ? by peragrin · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Since when have futurists have gotten anything right? If we believe them we would all be enjoying our flying cars, that can interact with us using voice control. We would talk to each other using video phones(first designed in 1969? AT&T).

    The event singularity doesn't have to happen because the futurists are always wrong.

    --
    i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    1. Re:Since when ? by NitsujTPU · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You would be referring to the "Mother of All Demos" that Doug Engelbart gave.

      There is the big difference there that all of the technologies that he demonstrated were already developed and working, that others had a fair level of consent that they would eventually exist, and that he was talking about the near future.

    2. Re:Since when ? by Zeebs · · Score: 4, Insightful

      They got the video phone right, it is possible as others have pointed out. What they got wrong was the market, and they were futurists after all so who can blame them on that.

      The problem with the video phone is that I can't roll out of bed and answer it. Video conferencing does have it's uses, but I need time to prepare so I don't look like my usual pile of ass who just rolled out of bed. That might make the telemarketers stop calling tho... hmmm

      It wasn't technology they guessed wrong, unless you count not having those things the jetsons did, instantly groom and dress out as you got out of bed. Now that would make the video phone take off.

      --

      Happy Noodle Boy says "F###ing doughnut! Mock me? You fried cyclops!!"
    3. Re:Since when ? by stox · · Score: 4, Informative

      AT&T Videophones were first built in 1956, aka the PicturePhone(TM).

      http://www.att.com/attlabs/reputation/timeline/70p icture.html

      --
      "To those who are overly cautious, everything is impossible. "
    4. Re:Since when ? by JDevers · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Are you serious?

      How about these:

      1791 Luigi Galvani accidentally closing an electrical circuit through a frog's leg, causing it to
      jerk violently. This rapidly led to the understanding of how nerves and muscles work.

      1879 Louis Pasteur accidentally inoculated chickens with an old cholera culture. The chickens should have died from cholera, but they got sick and then got better. After discovering the mistake, Pasteur re-inoculated the chickens with fresh culture and the chickens didn't even get sick. This lead to the modern vaccination.

      1895 Wilhelm Roentgen accidentally discovered X-rays.

      1928 Alexander Fleming accidentally discovered that a type of mold (later named Penicillium) significantly inhibited bacterial growth. This lead to antibiotics.

      Never assume that all discoveries are predicted before they are "discovered." I would actually say that most INSIGNIFICANT technological advancement is predicted well out, most of these are evolutionary. Many significant advancements are revolutionary and there is no way many of them could be predicted as there was no information related to the new process before the discovery of the process itself.

    5. Re:Since when ? by westlake · · Score: 2, Interesting
      We would talk to each other using video phones(first designed in 1969? AT&T

      You could make videophone calls from AT&T booths at the New York World's Fair in 1964. But you can trace demonstrations of the idea back at least to the 1920s. Mechanical scanning, the Nipkow Disk.

    6. Re:Since when ? by Saeger · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Since when have futurists have gotten anything right? If we believe them we would all be enjoying our flying cars, that can interact with us using voice control.

      Yet another wheres-my-flying-car-cynic eh? :)

      You see, Bad futurists attempt to predict specific inventions at specific far-future dates while 1) ignoring the facts; 2) forgetting to ask whether anyone *wants* the projected product or situation; 3) ignoring the costs; 4) and trying to predict which company or technology will win. These are the type of futurists that sell the most books and most people have their hope-bubbles bursted by.

      Accurate futurists, like Ray Kurzweil, extrapolate more general trends into the future based on the very predictable history of exponential technological acceleration. e.g. I can say with certainty that I'll be able to buy a 1 Terabyte HD in 2007 for under $0.50 per GB, but I can't tell you if someone will have invented the next tech to begin the paradigm shift to the medium with a better price/performance ratio than spinning platters.

      --
      Power to the Peaceful
    7. Re:Since when ? by JetScootr · · Score: 4, Funny

      The first caveman to handle fire was probably pretty surprised. But I'll bet there was another caveman there who said he'd known it was gonna happen all along.

      --
      Pavlov wouldn't be so famous if he'd used a can opener instead of a bell.
    8. Re:Since when ? by Mac+Degger · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I wanted to be a futurist, once upon a time. It sounded great to really think on the future, extrapolate trends, use statistical analysis on actual market data and economic data, to have to read up on all kinds of tech (physics, bio, chemical, electrical etc etc); all this to advise a multinational/governments on what divergent scenarios they could expect, which eventualities to have in mind.

      Until I actually met a futurist...and then started looking for information on futurists...and god forbid saw viedo's of the most respected futurists at a futurists convention. And then I discovered that most futurists are absolute nutjobs. We're talking cult of personality for the emotionaly disturbed. Meaning most of them are of the 'Starchild Lovemaker' hippy variety, with only a tangential understanding of technology. They have no idea what tech actually is, and how it works. They're as clueless as all the idiots who invested in those internet bubble IPO's who said burning thru millions was a great idea, and that profitability was not important for a publicaly traded company or one which was getting venture capital funding. These futurists jumped on memes they had no integral understanding of, just mumbling phrases which caught their imagination.

      And then I saw 'trendwatchers'; 'alternative' losers who actually got paid money to roam around the poor areas of asia to spot stuff they could steal and 'incorporate' into the latest western fads. Even less of what I wanted to do.

      Now I still want to do what I mentioned above...only in that purely relevant realm, using actual logic and analysis to actualy be usefull. Cause remember; it wasn't futurists who predicted the internet, the fall of the Berlin wall/USSR, the impact of electronics or even the wars due to teh scarcity of water.

      Anyway....more ontopic: my guess is the singularity will be quite a ways away, because whilst it is true we're getting more and more new tech, and developing tech-trees faster and faster, there's a mayor hurdles. Cross-pollination. Linking the different tech's to produce even more powerfull tech. 'Search' is just part of the problem (and a huge one even at that); it's very7 very hard just to know what is known! What research has already been done on nanotechnology? Oh, you mean nanomaterial? Or physics on the meso-scale? Or nano-chemistry? Or, or or.... . And which part of that is usefull to me, to the stuff I'm doing? That's HARD! And then there's intergration of two disparate fields into one tech....for example you need biology and electrical engineering to create your biochipthingy. Two very different field with different terminologies...now learn what they mean and connect them with an engineer and a biologist :) Not easy.

      So that's that for the singularity...humans at the moment just can'tr cope with all the wildly divergent and fragmented information out there, and that problem is only going to get worse. I expect the Singularity is in reality going to be some kind of 'Diffussion' instead. That's state will last for a long time before we digg ourselves out of that hole before the real Singularity can occur.

      --
      -- Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
    9. Re:Since when ? by QuantumG · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I don't get it. I live in Australia, and I see 3G video phones on tv all the time. I don't own one because I'm a geek and I don't see why you need a phone to do more than allow you to talk to people, but every second 16-22 year old has one. Maybe the problem with predicting the future is simply that Americans are all living in the past.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    10. Re:Since when ? by teslar · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Never assume that all discoveries are predicted before they are "discovered."
      Quite right. As someone (I forget who) once said, great discoveries are not marked by the word "Eureka" but rather by "Hmmmm, that's funny...."
    11. Re:Since when ? by davidc · · Score: 3, Informative

      A little historical correction is in order here.

      Vaccination came about because of Edward Jenner's observation that milkmaids tended not to get smallpox. The milkmaids had been exposed to cowpox (vaccinia) and were immune. Jenner developed a smallpox vaccine in 1796. Pasteur later went on to further develop the technique, but credit for the discovery should go to Jenner.

  4. Re:My god! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "The future is already here; it's just not evenly distributed."
      -- William Gibson

  5. Obligatory Trolling by TheStonepedo · · Score: 5, Funny

    First Post-Human!

    --
    I'll be your candy shop of infinite deliciousity if you'll be my discotheque of endless rump-shaking.
  6. Evolution yes, singularity no by chriss · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well, I doubt it. I agree with most of the idea of the 6:17 cast and even agree that educational and social changes like widespread literacy may be considered a singularity, but I seriously doubt the timeframe of one generation/30 years they mention. Literacy was adapted over hundreds of years, network communities have been developing for at least 30 years and are still primitive and very far from a "collective mind". For me Wikipedia is "augmented intelligence", but before that I had the Encyclopedia Britannica on my iBook and before that an encyclopedia on my desk, so this to is evolved. And since the Wikipedia is created by so many, it may be considered a primitive product of the "meta intelligence" described.

    Btw, the piece from NPR focuses (very trendy) on collaboration and advanced information management, they do not lay great hope on a major breakthrough in AI.

    1. Re:Evolution yes, singularity no by chriss · · Score: 2, Insightful
      For me Wikipedia is "augmented intelligence", but before that I had the Encyclopedia Britannica
      Perhaps if you augmented your intelligence a bit more, you'd understand that it's not the same as knowledge or information.

      Okay, this came out wrong. I do not think that wikipedia represents intelligence and therefore it cannot be "augmented intelligence". I think that (one aspect of) intelligence is the ability to process information, evaluate it in combination with other information/knowledge acquired before, establish a position in a world model, decide on an action based on formerly known actions or develop a new action and finally perform it. So for me Wikipedia can augment a humans intelligence not simply by providing more information, but by providing it in a way that it may be added to the regular information processing habit.

      Let's say I make 500 conscious decisions every day (which shirt to wear, which food to eat, take the new job, press the red button etc.). For almost any of these decisions I can rely on a mix of internal information (already acquired knowledge and deductions) and external information (books, web, Wikipedia, ask someone). I will not visit the public library 500 times a day, but I may call up an article from the wikipedia 20 times a day. It's not just about availability of information, it's also about "process compatibility". Therefore the encyclopedia on the desk may not be counted as augmenting my "intelligence process" (access is too slow for me to be willing to use it all the time), while the wikipedia may. This depends on your personal process, I'm sure there have always been people who look up every foreign word they don't know while most try to guess, and wikipedia will not become a part of your routine unless you replace your modem by DSL or cable.

    2. Re:Evolution yes, singularity no by Troed · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yeah I can. Information is spreading faster than ever, and at some point in time there's absolutely no point in "locking it" (which is what a traditional text book does) instead of keeping it liquid [fresh].

      Today's news is already old - and this is just the beginning.

    3. Re:Evolution yes, singularity no by Nefarious+Wheel · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Can you imagine the "text book that anyone can edit" being used in any school...

      You don't think much of anyone, do you?

      --
      Do not mock my vision of impractical footwear
  7. Microsoft or Real Only? by viking2000 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Where can I get this soundbite in a useful format??

    1. Re:Microsoft or Real Only? by jeffkantoku · · Score: 3, Informative
  8. Since Wikipedia is defining it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    It will be a Technological Singularity ON WHEELS!

    Willy on Wheels!

  9. Re:My god! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    An author using /. to publicise their latest novel. Yawn.

    From what I've seen we are as near to creating decent AI as we are to producing fusion power stations.

  10. invention/discovery... by SuperBanana · · Score: 2, Interesting
    ...often happens by mistake, either directly (ie the famous mold story) or indirectly (something doesn't add up, everyone goes looking at why, and bam, finds something new.) We're also driven by competition (ego, vanity, etc), curiosity, etc. So one area to ponder, I suppose, is this:

    AI's are human-designed/manufactured. Since we're prone to errors, it follows they are/will be as well. Does that mean AIs would make similar or different mistakes, and how would they handle them? The same, differently, or not at all? Will we see a regression, in that AIs will result to brute-force discovery much like early scientists? Will they evolve?

    Another question area: Anyone who has built a compiler knows the three-tap rule. Build it, build it using itself, build it a third time, compare. Will AIs produce AIs, and if so, will they be better, or equally flawed? Will a 'perfect' AI still be capable of scientific invention/discovery? Will the mistakes of its human operators/supervisors/managers make up for its lack thereof?

    What about drive? Will the drive of a human manager/supervisor/etc be sufficient substitute for an AI which can't posess them?

    1. Re:invention/discovery... by QuantumG · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Will AIs produce AIs, and if so, will they be better, or equally flawed?

      The current thinking is that we will make seed AI, i.e., general intelligence for manipulating software, and that it will improve itself, in an incremental fashion, all the way up to and beyond the level of human intelligence. Of course, this will be done with the help and guidance of programmers but the fear is that by giving it free reign to manipulate itself we will no longer be able to understand what it creates. Not only will this mean that we won't learn anything, but we'll also be unable to control it. As such, most people who seriously consider working on this stuff advocate a goal based higher level of functioning with "friendliness" to humans as being the primary goal and improve yourself as a secondary subgoal. That way, even if the beast gets out of control, the worst it will do is solve world hunger.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    2. Re:invention/discovery... by LordLucless · · Score: 3, Interesting

      As such, most people who seriously consider working on this stuff advocate a goal based higher level of functioning with "friendliness" to humans as being the primary goal and improve yourself as a secondary subgoal. That way, even if the beast gets out of control, the worst it will do is solve world hunger.

      Isaac Asimov discusses that concept in one of his short stories; The Evitable Conflict. In that short story, there were huge computers that could assimilate vast amounts of information in order to determine the best course. Because of their reliability, the machines had been put in charge of things like food production and distribution. In the end, the machines began manipulating events to ensure that anyone who disagreed with the machines control was removed from a position of influence. They did this because obviously what was best for mankind was to be guided by the machines, who didn't start wars or squandor resources like they did. In order to maintain what was best for humanity, they had to act against individual humans and, in short, ensure that humanity was never ever the master of its own destiny.

      It's fiction, yes, but even such simple goals as the one you suggested need to be interpreted. How should one weigh up the needs of the many against the needs of the few?

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
  11. The Abolition of Man by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This summer I read C.S. Lewis's masterpiece The Abolition of Man. (No, I didn't link-jack the Amazon link for want of filthy lucre.)

    Skip reading the editorial review. Here are some excerpts from the first customer reviewer, Charles Warman:

    Lewis accurately predicts the parallel development of two trends: (1) ... (2) the ability of a scientific or political elite, through social conditioning and/or genetic manipulation, to affect the thinking of successive generations of the rest of us - the great unwashed.
    So where will it end? In an ironic conclusion, Lewis predicts that what will be hailed an man's ultimate victory over Nature (such as human cloning?) will actually be Nature's ultimate victory over man. This will occur when we can fully control the kind of people the next generation will be (i.e., how they think), but in the absence of moral standards, this choice will be made arbitrarily; that is, according to purely Natural impulses - thus we have the Abolition of Man as man and the ascendancy of man as animal.
  12. A tough nut by Tlosk · · Score: 3, Interesting

    One of the toughest nuts to crack is what are going to want to do, that is what should our goals be.

    If you look at most of the goals we have right now, they're pretty mundane and shortlived. Curing disease, stop killing eachother, end to hunger, creating objects that we find beautiful and pleasing, creating more living beings like ourselves.

    Once we reach a singularity we'll have the technology to do away with all these problem oriented goals and I for the life of me can't really think of any obvious goals past that point. While I agree with the premise that we don't have any reliable way of predicting what our goals will become past the singularity, does anyone have any guesses?

    1. Re:A tough nut by 10100111001 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      One of the toughest nuts to crack is what are we going to want to do, that is, what should our goals be.

      If you look at most of the goals we have right now, they're pretty mundane and shortlived. Curing disease, stop killing each other, end to hunger, creating objects that we find beautiful and pleasing, creating more living beings like ourselves.

      Once we reach a singularity we'll have the technology to do away with all these problem oriented goals and I for the life of me can't really think of any obvious goals past that point. While I agree with the premise that we don't have any reliable way of predicting what our goals will become past the singularity, does anyone have any guesses?


      The first noble truth of Buddhism is that all is suffering. Nietzsche (whose philosophy has Buddhist influences) wrote of the will to power of all things. If we think of suffering as being caused by a lack of power, then the amount of suffering one feels is equal to the amount of power one has left to be gained.

      After this "singularity" occurs and we have used technology to transcend our organic existence and overcome the plights of present day humans, the only suffering left will be the power not yet possessed. This power will be attainable in the form of technology, or rather, information. New found knowledge will continue to empower whatever humanity evolves into, be it super powerful AI, or perhaps some type of collective intelligence.

      So, my guess as to what a possible goal for future civilizations might be, which is the same basic goal as we have now is... to maintain and gain power, and it will happen via the acquisition of new information, i.e. learning.

  13. Why the singularity is just late to the party by Dasher42 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    You know, I used to have this technological post-human bent. Buried in C++ programming projects, I admired the order of all that I was creating. It was fun. I'd get a new set of behaviors programmed in the usual conditional branching - if/else, class polymorphism, you name it - and seeing it work was exhilarating. The idea that humanity could reinvent its world piece by piece - much like in the argument where if you replaced each neuron in your brain one by one with an artificial equivalent, at what point would you cease to be human, if at all? I still have Raymond Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines on one of my bookshelves.

    The thing is, we are still way surpassed at this by billions of years of evolution. We run on energy from fossil fuels and build from materials we've mined and shipped. On the other hand, we find bacteria living in the most surprising places, we find superior sonar in dolphins and bats to anything we make, and all of it runs on, ultimately, fresh plant matter. We get excited over a myomer that lifted some heavy weight, and I tell you, an elephant can do the same thing given enough food. The sheer variety and efficiency of the ecosystem virtually guarantees that most any way you can think to survive has been done somewhere, somehow, by some living creature. We're worrying about when oil will peak, if we can live another century, and outside our doors the world can go on for eons to come provided we don't break it with our silly toys.

    And in a geek-intense environment like this one, I think I can say that it's difficult to beat the end product of a long-term evolutionary algorithm, which itself is an arguably good model of what the world around us acts like, and you all will understand.

    I don't deny the coolness of my Apple notebook and I've got a decent number of shelves full of programming books, but I think biomimicry is where it's at. We can go a lot further learning from our world of proteins and DNA and RNA and using - or just having fun with! - what's already there.

    We can also get out more and enjoy our analog, fuzzy-logic, neural-net-driven, molecularly-computed fleshy selves. ;)

    1. Re:Why the singularity is just late to the party by Daniel+the+Great · · Score: 2, Insightful
      ... but I think biomimicry [biomimicry.net] is where it's at.

      I have to disagree with you there. Consider the biggest world-changing inventions so far - The car, the airplane, the printing press, the computer, networking, the wheel - none of these are substantially based on biological mechanisms.

      The path that evolution has taken over millions of years has lead to some amazingly complex and beautiful solutions to survival. But the environment that technological systems operate in now is very different and the time spans are compressed to hundreds and even tens of years.

      Since there is currently no Strong AI (that we know of) the jury is out as to how it will happen. But the chances of it closely mimicking a biological mechanism are about the same as for the previous inventions.

    2. Re:Why the singularity is just late to the party by baby_robots · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There was a time when it was popular among chemists to believe that every chemical compound possible had already been synthesized by nature. This has been all but disproven in the chemical literature by many novel synthetic chemicals.

      While evolutionary mechanics are beautiful for creating a streamlined and efficient system, it has its limits. Biological organisms are hindered by lack of resources. While the things they do with carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen are unrivaled by any modern synthetic chemical techniques, there are many reactions that are all but impossible in biological systems due to the need for catalysts made from rare metals or extreme temperatures. Nature can't work with carbon nanotubes because it does not have any to work with.

      So what I am trying to say is that evolutionary systems are limited by the starting basis set, and expanding beyond that is impossible without an outside source.

    3. Re:Why the singularity is just late to the party by Dasher42 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually, the wheel has been invented in nature. E. Coli has a rotary propulsion system. It hasn't happened on a multicellular level, though if you think about it, legs can go places can't. Goodness knows how many dramatically different possible branches of evolution have been closed off through mass extinctions. It is interesting to ponder, though, what cheetahs and antelopes would look like on wheels.

  14. Re:All intelligence is genuine, not artificial. by NitsujTPU · · Score: 2, Interesting

    No offense, but I'm not sure that I buy that.

    I'm an RA at an "Artificial Intelligence" lab. In the Fall, I'll be working on my PhD, studying "artificial intelligence." I have a membership to the American Association for "Artificial Intelligence," which is one of the most respected organizations in the field of "Artificial Intelligence."

    I don't seen anything geniunely "intelligent" about a support vector machine, but, it does get the job done quite nicely.

    I've worked with some of the best people in the field of "artificial intelligence" and spoken with a number of others. Let me look over my bookshelf... "Aritifical Intelligence - Stuart Russel and Peter Norvig." "The Society of Mind - Marvin Minsky (founder of the MIT "Artificial Intelligence Laboratory")... Some others that don't have such easy citations linking them to instances where the practitioner referred to themselves as being in the field of "Artificial Intelligence," but "Mind and Mechanism - Drew McDermott..." Lets see, he also wrote "Artifical Intelligence Programming, co-authored by Eugene Charniak."

    Quite a bit of what we do has nothing to do with emulating human intelligence, though some of it does. Cog, for instance, experiments with human-like behavior. Is the neural net that I wrote that can steer a car "intelligent?" I don't really think so, not in a way that would offend me if it were called "artificial intelligence." My office-mate just got a best-paper award in an Aritifial Intelligence conference.

    So, anyway, I guess to be brief, I disagree.

  15. Ye gods... by CapnRob · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I keep wanting to find Vinge and slap him around a bit until he shuts up about "The Singularity". The thing is, there have been several "singularities" in human history: the Agricultural Singularity, the Industrial Singularity, the Computer Singularity, and so on and so forth. Or, to use the term that most historians use - rather than "Singularity", "Revolution." Yes, technology will change the context of human interaction. Yes, nifty and non-nifty things will happen. But, dammit, it's not as if technology has never fundamentally altered society before. Get over it, already.

    1. Re:Ye gods... by Saeger · · Score: 4, Informative

      The past "singularities" you cite (e.g. agricultural revolution) were actually punctuated S-curve periods of progress that happened at a rate slow enough for the human mind to adapt to.

      *THE* Singularity -- that Vinge, Kurzweil, Moravec, Yudkowski, and many others smart enough to extrapolate the evidence can't "shut up" about -- is where the exponential curve is near vertical. It's where the primitive bio-human brain can no longer keep up with the accelerating change; hence the need to transcend or die at that point (2030 - 2050).

      It's nothing to be afraid of. Either most of us living today will get to see The Singularity, or our primitive-brain VS. accelerating-tech will finally fuck it all up and none of us will see it. Maybe the brewing "WW3" in the middle east is how we'll join the club of "missing" alien races of Fermi's Paradox?

      --
      Power to the Peaceful
    2. Re:Ye gods... by Fred+Ferrigno · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The thing is, there have been several "singularities" in human history: the Agricultural Singularity, the Industrial Singularity, the Computer Singularity, and so on and so forth. Or, to use the term that most historians use - rather than "Singularity", "Revolution."

      My interpretation of the singularity is very different from what they seem to be talking about in the article.. err interview. They're talking about the influence of computers, artificial intelligence and whatnot -- what you might call "The AI Revolution" -- rather than the real singularity.

      The foundation of the technology singularity, as I always understood it, is that new technology (not necessarily AI) increases the pace of further technologic development, until development accelerates to infinity. The first part of the conjecture is easy to verify, as witnessed by the revolutions you mention. Humans lived on this earth for about 100,000 years before developing agriculture; after that it was about 9,000 years before the printing press and widespread literacy; 500 years or so till the industrial revolution; maybe 150 years until we had the first computers; and ~50 years until the development of the Internet.

      If we extrapolate this trend (which is what futurists do), future technological revolutions will increase in pace, some happening literally overnight, until they all seem to happen at once. That moment is the singularity. What happens after that is the stuff of bad science fiction.

      Personally, I think there's probably an upper limit on the pace of useful technological development. Just because Intel releases a new and faster chip doesn't mean I'm going to buy one before I've gotten the full use out of my current one. And there are certainly physical limits to technology as well: despite hundreds of years of trying, no one's yet managed to turn lead into gold. In the long run, I think the pace of development will slow (and there's some who say it has slowed) and eventually technology will just plateau, but not for a very long time.

    3. Re:Ye gods... by apposite · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In Australia we have a local idiot (Damien Broderick) who enthuses over the singularity and I find it incredibly irritating. I don't have a problem with the concept of a singularity, I DO have a problem with the insistence of some enthusiasts that the singularity is just round the corner. My biggest problem is that most of the pundits don't actually seem to work with technology.

      It is really easy as an observer to sit on the outside and say: "Wow, more neato stuff seems to be coming out faster and faster- why, if I extrapolate it will probably keep coming out faster and faster and we'll get this exponential curve." But that ignores the fact that:

      * The problems get harder
      * Technological adoption is generally limited by the speed at which society can absorb it, not by the technology
      * We've never found a silver bullet

      By which I mean:

      The problems get harder: Einstein may have been a genius- but we have our share of geniuses today. We almost certainly have many more geniuses actively involved in science (and physics research) than ever before- and they are well resourced (not fantastically, but OK). But they aren't producing Einstein like breakthrough physics because it is damn hard to improve on what we have. We know the current models have holes but we haven't worked out how to fix them- and not for want of trying.

      The same applies to lots of technical problems- both the technical research and the translation of that research into real world products. Batteries and fusion power both have enormous commerical incentives but somehow we haven't found the answer yet. We HAVE made improvements but the simple truth is: these are hard problems.

      See also the cost of electronic foundaries- around a billion $US and climbing by roughly an order of magnitude with each succesive generation. That is where the bleeding edge of real world technology rests and it isn't cheap and it is just unbelievably tricky.

      Technological adoption is generally limited by the speed at which society can absorb it, not by the availability of technology: Science can in theory race ahead of everyday use but in practice it usually has to be supported by technology. Leaving aside silver bullet technologues (like AI- see below) scientific research needs to be translated into technologies that everyday people can use. And technology that everyday people use needs to be adopted, which means it needs to be understood and accepted. That isn't a formula for a singularity.

      In theory a small population could make a 'huge breakthrough' and race ahead leaving the rest of the world's population bewildered by the change, but every indication is that the be big problems need big resources to address. And even more resources to translate into actual out of the lab usage (see electronics foundries link above).

      We do see some impressive stuff (like Google) which catches our attention and is really useful but this is a tool that society adopts at its own rate. And Google is successful because it DOESN'T baffle and bewilder. It empowers the everyday person. That is pretty characteristic of succesful technology.

      We've never found a silver bullet: Science fiction stories often have a bit of hidden magic- the AI, fusion power, teleportation (aka worm hole gates, star drives, etc...) that definitively solves some problem (problem solving, energy, transport to the stars) with no big side effects. That is great for science fiction, but in the real world we don't do this (I won't say absolutely, but I can't think of a real life silver bullet). Everything is a careful trade off, the really big problems don't just go away.

      The big one is thinking: for all that computers help us do work they don't do what we would consider 'intelligent' things. Or when they do (like pattern recognition in breast cancer X-Rays) they are so limited in their scope that we st

    4. Re:Ye gods... by old+man+moss · · Score: 2, Interesting
      If you look at an S-curve before the inflexion point, you can convince yourself that it's going to keep on rising and become exponential. That's the problem with extrapolation... it's bollocks (or not) you don't know, you can't know.

      That's even if you're measuring the right thing.

      --
      rt
  16. Re:What happens when we get there by Salsaman · · Score: 4, Funny

    We have a time-war with the Daleks.

  17. It's Adam and Eve, not Adam and R689-212 by Jeremi · · Score: 4, Funny
    The merging of man and machine has long been a vision explored in science fiction.


    Christ. Just wait until the "defend traditional marriage" crowd gets word of this.

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  18. Re:All intelligence is genuine, not artificial. by happyemoticon · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Artificial primarily means that it comes from artifice (ingenuity) or art. It doesn't (directly) mean it's fake, it just means it's a consciously created work of humankind rather than nature. I think that in modern times with so many knock-offs of natural goods, such as artificial sweetener, the secondary definition has gained the upper hand.

    Check out wictionary (It's the hive-mind wikipedia, it must be right!)

    When you read enough literature from the 16th and 17th centuries you get more familiar with the original, literal meanings of words such as this one. A favorite subject was to compare art to nature, and they'd freely use the word "artificial" to mean that which comes from human arts. This is not to say that the secondary definition is wrong: for example, when in Book 3 of The Faerie Queene a troll creates an artificial woman to replace the girl who left him out of snow, "virgin" wax and some gold wire (and of course wackiness ensues) it is repeatedly underscored that this "False Florimell" is a cheap immitation.

    Anyway, you can chose any definition you like. I sort of prefer artificial intelligence to synthetic intelligence or whatever, just because how you regard the word artificial says a lot about you and what you think of human creativity. And I don't like euphamism treadmills, which is effectively what we're talking about here.

  19. Limits of Intelligence by wa1hco · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The singularity can't happen because intelligence has limits. The hypothetical machine that makes itself ever smarter doesn't make sense.

    Assuming intelligence is the ability to extrapolate from facts to deduce the future, then it's limited by the accuracy of the facts (garbage in, garbage out). There's no point in have ever greater powers of deduction if the facts have a lot of noise in them.

    Sherlock Holmes looked powerful because Victorian society had high levels of structure and relatively less noise. It's common strategy to act crazy, illogical, stupid when in a conflict with more powerful enemies.

    The butterfly effect, as an illustration of chaos, will protect us from the singularity.

    1. Re:Limits of Intelligence by WittyName · · Score: 2, Insightful

      > The singularity can't happen because intelligence has limits. The hypothetical machine that makes itself ever smarter doesn't make sense.

      Where is the limit? 200 IQ? 1000 IQ?

      Even then, the hypothetical AI has advantages over us. It can examine its own code (subconsious?)
      So, it can optimize slow, inefficient routines. Maybe it could even optimize its architecture via a
      custom instruction set. Or maybe even the base process, silicon, to quantum, or biotech.

      It would also have a much larger range of IO choices, as well as the number of channels.

      As well as non-fuzzy long term memory.

      Postulate this:
          1) the AI starts at 100 IQ
          2) every year it can think some percent faster
          3) larger amount/variety of input

      Questions:
      1) would it not give better informed answeres, faster, year after year?
      2) This would be more intelligent, right?

      Even if there is a cap at 200 IQ, if it keeps getting faster, it can evaluate more possible breakthrough
      ideas per time unit. Maybe limited by boredom?

      --
      The law is a weapon of the government, not a protection for the likes of you. Surely you understand that.
  20. More Important: I'll be out of a job by QuantumG · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The hard takeoff concept of a seed AI has as a prerequisit the creation of a computer program that can understand and write source code. I'd probably try to make something like that to make my job as a programmer easier, but there's no way I'd let anyone know I had.. otherwise they wouldn't need me. Which makes you wonder, maybe someone already has one.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  21. Re:There is no artificial intelligence by E++99 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    There is no "artificial intelligence". All intelligence that is called artificial intelligence is genuine.
    There is no artificial intelligence, because what is called "artificial intelligence" is actually just algorithms. The only intelligence involved is in the designing of them by humans. These "futurists" (science fiction writers) have been saying, "strong AI is right around the corner" for at least four decades now. As someone who designs neural networks and keeps up the latest research, I can assure you that we are no closer to "strong AI" than we were in the stone age. An artificial neural network is no more likely to aquire intelligence than a clay head with magic words spoken to it. I'm not knocking either idea ...just putting it perspective.
  22. Current Top Story on Slashdot: by sakusha · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Whatever was the top story 30 minutes ago on BoingBoing.

  23. scienobabble by neatfoote · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Only bad things happen when people steal hard-science ideas to describe soft-science phenomena-- the ridiculous (and unaccountably persistent) idea of "social evolution" is one example, and as far as I can see, this "technological singularity" notion is another. History is a phenomenally complex system; even in hindsight, it's virtually impossible to find real patterns, and grafting the language of astrophysics onto a theory of social progress lends an undeserved air of gravitas and mathematical precision to what's essentially just fun speculation.

    Sure, things change, sometimes quite suddenly and unexpectedly. But really, the relationship between the development of literacy (NPR's example of a past singularity) and the subsequent course of history is nothing like the relationship between a real singularity and... anything. It's just a bad metaphor, and I think I'd have a lot more respect for "future studies" if they dropped it and came up with a new way of describing whatever phenomenon it is they're predicting

  24. Long Now Seminar by PromANJ · · Score: 3, Informative

    I think Bruce Sterling gave a talk on this subject, it can be found a bit down on this page: Long Now Seminars.

    My personal whimsical theo.. hypoth... idea is that alien civilizations turn into (towards us) apathetic singularities, and that's why we will never hear Chenjesu's crystaline humming calling us. Maybe the universe will end in some sort of rather dull uniform black technological singularity goo.

  25. Fear of the superior by Baldrson · · Score: 3, Insightful
    At the risk of repeating myself:

    The C-Prize is the path to superhuman AI.

    And as for the "threat" of superhuman AI:

    Even assuming AI were to develop the equivalent of genetic self-interest, (something that would take a long time even if humans turned them lose to reproduce without us selecting them appropriately) I'd much rather be in competition with a species that had the potential of being symbiotic due to having a different ecological nich. If it gets to the point that the solar output (forget the sun falling on Earth here -- that's too insignificant to consider important to a silicon based life form) is the limited resource, I suspect that the nich humans will fill will be orders of magnitude larger than they now fill on earth.

    The best hope humans have of the transhumanist wishful thinking is to develop superhuman AIs that find utilizing the gas giants to their advantage given the limited supply of silicon. Humans, as the highest form of organic intelligence, would be the natural species to transit to higher intelligence.

    Maybe the super AI's could get around this by using a straight carbon semiconductor form of intelligence or something but there is more going on in our brains than we understand. For example, I suspect there is a lot more quantum logic going on within our brains than currently thought by cognitive scientists and neurologists. It only makes sense evolution would have exploited every angle of the physics of the universe to create intelligence. My point in bringing in the possibility of quantum logic is that there are really many things we don't know about natural systems of high complexity and I suspect the same will apply even to super AI's. The fact that we might have the laws down cold at the quantum level doesn't mean we know how things operate in the higher complexity systems.

    Human brains are very valuable repositories of ancient wisdom about the universe and the most optimal thing for the super AIs to do -- at least for a while -- would be to transhumanize our brains for us.

    Moreover, if it is ok to pass laws to prevent the creation of intelligences greater than our own, why isn't it ok to pass laws dumbing down the smartest among us?

    The self-determination argument applied to humanity as a whole -- striving to maintain control of its own destiny by preventing the creation of higher non-human intelligences -- applies also to people who want to maintain control of their own destiny against those smarter than themselves.

    Personally I'm much more frightened of unenlightened self-interest than I am enlightened self-interest.

    I really wish it were possible to make some of the "smart" people who are really good at grabbing control of resources intelligent enough to understand that they are using those resources in very stupid, self-destructive ways.

    Indeed, it is this abysmal stupidity among the shrewdest among us that is my main motivation for promoting super AI.

  26. Curiously enough.... by Savage-Rabbit · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ...while professional futurists often get it wrong, the amateurs sometimes get it eerily right.

    --
    Only to idiots, are orders laws.
    -- Henning von Tresckow
  27. A multiplicity of singularities by dpbsmith · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Now, let me see... when was the last Singularity? Was it Y2K? Or was it perhaps the Jupiter Effect (when all the planets lined up and the gravitational effect tipped the earth out of its axis?) Or am I confusing both of them with the beginning of the Aquarian Age? Or maybe I'm thinking of the Harmonic Convergence of August 17, 1987?

    I'm way too young to remember the Millerites and the Great Disappointment of October 22, 1844, when Jesus failed to reappear, but I've been blessed to live through a veritable multiplicity of singularities.

    Oooh, singularity! I like that word. So much kewler than, say, "Armageddon." It sounds so technical, so scientific, so free from ranting religiosity....

  28. 1 million calculators... by dargaud · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Like my father said after I explained this singularity 'thing' over dinner (and lotsa wine): "Puting a million calculators next to each other doesn't make an intelligent computer". Understating the question that we may have the hardware, but we are very far from having the software for that thing...

    --
    Non-Linux Penguins ?
  29. The eternal quest... by RyanFenton · · Score: 2, Insightful


    Experience. The hidden result of all reactions, real or imagined - observable experience.

    Regardles of what gods may exist, what greater reality may exist, or whatnot, the purpose to everything can be met with a system that pursues experience in all it's variety. If we are all that is, the eternal quest for experience will be it's own purpose. Endless experience would fulful all purposes.

    The trick is setting up a system of gathering experience that doesn't meet with stagnation. Stagnation can come in many forms - death/ceasation, returning to exactly the same state as some past point without being aware of it(looping), or any path that will inevitably lead to those states. Etropy is an obvious block towards seeking experience as an ultimate goal - but if totally unavoidable, then the ultimate goal would be maximizing exploration with the resources available.

    Ryan Fenton

  30. Re:My god! by Bloater · · Score: 4, Interesting

    > From what I've seen we are as near to creating decent AI as we are to producing fusion power stations.

    About 10 years away then...

  31. Re:What happens when we get there by hutchike · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ...ask the Dalai Lama - I get the distinct feeling he's been here before.

    --
    Zen tips: Pay attention. Don't take it personally. Believe nothing.
  32. Ethicial question by paughsw · · Score: 2, Interesting
    The problem with singularity is that of an ethicial question. The courtship of IT and biology would be preceded by too many backseat bumblings with which public opinion would not tolerate. A secondary problem of politics is introduced. With divided opinion on stem cell research, cloning and abortion, turning humans into cyborgs will certainly meet resistance.

    I would reference a quote by Rick Mullin from his article Frankenstein At The Circus


    "Frankenstein" is not so much a cautionary tale about science as it is an explication of man's fall from grace as a consequence of overarching ambition. Shelley illustrates this with references to Western literature's two great examples: Adam and Eve's ouster from the Garden of Eden in the Bible and Satan's fall from the ranks of the archangels in John Milton's "Paradise Lost." Strictly on a literary level, these stories are compelling, especially the story of the Garden, as it illuminates the brilliant but naive Frankenstein's crossing the line that can't be crossed."
  33. Existing models of the future? Which ones? by Humm · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "existing models of the future cease to give reliable or accurate answers"

    The premise of this definition is that models of the future give reliable or accurate answers at present. What are the models they talk about? Special futurist models? Do these really give reliable or accurate answers today? Or do they mean all models of human behaviour, i.e. most models of the social sciences? Supply & demand will no longer determine price?

    If the models are found not to be good predictors of behaviour, they will be modified or replaced. You know... sort of like how it works right now?
    If patterns in human behaviour start changing rapidly because of rapidly evolving superhuman intelligence, then sure, our ability to model that behaviour will go out the window. But then, we wont be doing the modeling, superhuman intelligences will. I don't see why the emergence of superhuman intelligence would have to lead to a singularity.

    I believe the models will cope. Not "existing models", but tomorrow's models.

  34. It's brewing in Microsoft's labs.. by calcutta001 · · Score: 2, Informative

    If it takes over the world, neo will just have to find a hole in the Internet Explorer 2199
    http://research.microsoft.com/os/singularity/

  35. the last REAL singularity... by JetScootr · · Score: 2, Insightful

    was the mastery of fire. There's no way the humanoids then could understand where it would lead. It didn't look like a singularity because history moved very slowly 200K-500K years ago.

    --
    Pavlov wouldn't be so famous if he'd used a can opener instead of a bell.
  36. Oh noes, the Rapture! by the+phantom · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Is it just me, or does this sound a lot like the Christian idea of the Rapture? The chosen people, hand selected by God (or the machines, or whatever) will be elevated to sublime consciouness, while the rest of us die out by fighting wars &c. Yipee!

  37. future = rise of cyborgs? by drgonzo59 · · Score: 4, Interesting
    No need to worry. In the 60's they were sure that by 2006 robots would have surpassed humans and enslaved us all. So how many human-like robots have you seen on your way to work lately? I'll help -- None! That was my question to this professor who wanted to tell me that AI is really really exciting and I should work in that field. AI reseach is still pretty much stuck in the 80s. Nothing earth shattering has occurred since then, just small improvement here and there.

    The problem is also mostly with the expectations people have of computers. Everyone wants computers to return deterministic and easily tracable results. For example if I want a value from a database I want to issue a query and have the value returned. I don't want a system that would return it faster but only with 80% of correctness, I don't want any "fuzziness" only exact numbers. In other words people would rather have computers do what computers are doing - calculating stuff fast and exactly, they don't want computers to really act like humans. I think subconsciously we will just never allow computers to reach a human level of soffistication and thus they will probably never surpass us.

    On the other hand, what would rather happen is that we will slowly integrate machines into ourselves - litteraly. As soon as the baby is born we will tag it with an RFID, we will implant sensors for infrared vision, ultrasound, we will inject nanoparticles to boost the immune system. In other words I see a cyborg future were we become one with the machines. If anything or anyone will destroy us it will only by ourselves, at the same time if anything helps us prosper, it will also be ourselves. The future is (mostly - short of a big meteorite hitting us) in our hands...

    1. Re:future = rise of cyborgs? by God+of+Lemmings · · Score: 3, Informative

      AI is hardly impossible given our currently available technology.
      However, it is currently impractical by currently available means
      for one even to go about simulating a brain, much less at the
      same speed a human thinks. 20 billion neurons of more than a
      dozen different types take up a lot of ram, not to mention disk
      space.

      Outside of the technological hurdles that will eventually go away,
      Knowledge of human brain is reaching a critical mass which will
      eventually result in a basic artificial intelligence. Don't expect the
      first one to have godlike intelligence or whatnot. Don't even expect
      it to be totally sane from our point of view. And for God's sake,
      don't expect the Asimov Rules, as they are nearly impossible to
      implement when dealing with something as complex as a neural
      network.

      --
      Non sequitur: Your facts are uncoordinated.
  38. World hunger solution : read on! by pbhj · · Score: 4, Funny

    >>> the worst it will do is solve world hunger

    "Thank you for using AI-net. The best solution to "world hunger" appears to be large-scale thermonuclear war. I have taken the liberty of releasing sufficient war-heads to destroy all humans who can get hungry. As a side effect and in accordance with my prime directive (being a friend to humans) all human suffering will be ended.

    Have a prosperous existence."

  39. Hofstadter thinks Kurzweil full of it, film at 11 by Dachannien · · Score: 2, Informative

    Douglas Hofstadter, a Pulitzer prize winning author with a Ph.D. in physics and an appointment in Cognitive Science at Indiana University, talked about Ray Kurzweil's predictions of the oncoming technological singularity at the Artificial Life X conference this year. An audio-only webcast of his talk is available.

  40. Re:Which ones? *ALL* of them. by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 2, Informative

    >But: name one technological advance that humans in the past have been capable of and refrained from. There are none.

    Nuclear-powered aircraft.
    Flying cars.
    Project Orion.
    Mach 3 aircraft with real payload, e.g. the XB-70.
    Fiber to the home.
    Betamax :-)

  41. Who says it hasn't already happened? by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Did anyone foresee that in the 90s the largest empire humans ever built would evaporate like a soap bubble? (Except Poul Anderson in the 1953 story "The Last Deliverer"). Talk about existing models of how things work falling apart.

    Imagine an intelligent and curious human from rural Nepal, or Papua New Guinea. Could you explain your job to them?

    Could you do your job without the embryonic augmentations we have now, such as Google?

    We're partway up that vertical curve now.

  42. Oh , but the scenario is perfectly valid by aepervius · · Score: 2, Insightful

    keep in mind that such Ai would probably not be a world project, but rather a single country doing it. Let us just imagine this is China or US. So most probably the country would implement a friendlines toward THEM rather than global toward human. Now the parent post begins to make a lot of frightening sense "they are against us. We can't convince to join us or be friendly to us. They need to be eliminated as a threat. Change nuke targeting system to those country. Countdown to launch 10,9,8...".

    --
    C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
    visit randi.org
  43. Re:My god! by drDugan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I disagree, we are much closer to creating conscious computers than we are to effective fusion power.

    In fact, I would wager that really understanding the universe and its underlying complexity will only be understood by conscious systems much more complex than the human brain - meaning that most likely, effective fusion power will be designed *BY* the intelligent machines. See my sig.

    Once "they" control a power plant, then there is no need for the "us" anymore.

  44. Today's mind vs. tomorrow's by snowwrestler · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From a 15th century monk's perspective, today's curve is vertical. Of course to us it's clearly not. Thus the flaw of the hand-wringing over "the singularity" is illustrated--it suffers from the classic error of attempting to evaluate the future in the context of today. Of course when we get to the future, we'll be in the future too--so it doesn't matter what we think now.

    Ever hear of the generation gap? The youth of today are different from us--they've been raised from birth in a world of ubiquitous networked computing and ambient findability. (see? I can throw around stupid buzzwords too.) Talk of "The Singularity" is not much different from complaining that your kids spend all their time texting. It's making explicit the fact that you can't imagine keeping up as you age. Well duh. We won't be running the show in 2050--our kids and their kids will.

    --
    Build a man a fire, he's warm for one night. Set him on fire, and he's warm for the rest of his life.
    1. Re:Today's mind vs. tomorrow's by Gulik · · Score: 3, Insightful

      From a 15th century monk's perspective, today's curve is vertical. Of course to us it's clearly not.

      That's really not what's under discussion here -- I'm not more intelligent than a 15th-century monk. Putting that monk in the modern world would cause severe culture shock because of the disconnect between the world and his existing frames of reference. He'd have to run like mad to try to catch up, because he didn't have his whole life to become used to it, but a bright person could probably manage it.

      What the futurists are talking about is a different level of intelligence. A person (machine, augmented human, whatever) who has more basic potential than a human, in the way a human has more basic potential than a cat. Someone for whom advanced calculus solutions are as intuitively obvious and immediate as "2+2" is for you. Someone who remembers anything they've ever seen or heard the way you can remember what someone just said to you a moment ago. Someone who can picture deformations of multi-dimensional topographies as easily as you can imagine a checkerboard folding in the middle. And even those examples are pretty poor, coming as they are from an average human intelligence -- probably only the first step along the path these guys are trying to think about.

  45. Re:Hofstadter thinks Kurzweil full of it, film at by sinewalker · · Score: 2, Insightful

    True. I'm not a Hofstadter appologist (he hardly needs one, and I'm certainly unqualified!) but I think this prediction should also be placed in it's context. Hofstadter was talking about the application of artificial reasoning in beating human chess players. The current chess champion systems aren't really reasoning, more like cheating: they spend endless cycles projecting moves forward in the problem space and then apply some huristics in selecting the next move. This is quite different to the lateral thinking and high-level pattern analysis that a human chess master applies, and makes best use of the computer's strength: high-speed drudgery work.

    In that light, then I would say that so far the prediction holds true, no chess master has been beaten by a computer program that applies reasoning instead of dumb search and huristics. Also, no machine has matched the three names composing the titel of the book and likely can't for a while.

    However, I'm not sure that this single prediction about chess accurately reflects the thrust of GEB anyway. Hofstadter appears to me to spend a great deal of GEB in explaining what in fact reasoning actually is, how it should be possible to mechanise. The prediction about chess doesn't jibe with the rest of the book as I remember. Perhaps I should look up the quote and then I'll understand?

    --
    “Our opponent is an alien starship packed with nuclear bombs. We have a protractor.” — Neal Stepnenso
  46. Re:Hofstadter thinks Kurzweil full of it, film at by Dachannien · · Score: 2, Informative

    In terms of the technological singularity, there's a big difference between brute-force search over a finite-but-large space and the sort of reasoning that humans do. Simply put, we haven't figured out how to get computers to do the sort of creative reasoning that is probably necessary for a computer to improve its own design in a way substantial enough to cause the technological singularity.

    On the chess problem alone and Hofstadter's prediction, what really happened was a duel between Hofstadter and Moore, in a sense. Eventually, the raw computing power available for looking ahead through chess's ginormous FSM became large enough that having access to the lookahead information proved more useful than the abstract reasoning skills of the chess grandmasters. That was really a theoretical inevitability once the algorithm for performing that lookahead was devised (decades ago, though the more recent programs now use heuristics to prune away large parts of the search tree's breadth). In fact, at that point, the only thing not inevitable was actually fairly unrelated to actually playing chess: the continuing improvement in generic computing hardware, semiconductors, etc.

    But even if computing hardware continues to improve, there's no guarantee that we'll ever come up with the algorithm necessary for allowing computers to cause the technological singularity. That's the difference between this and chess, because with chess, the algorithm was known, and it was just a matter of giving computers enough time to chug away. The technological singularity may be impossible, for all we know right now. However, even Hofstadter agrees that it's probably an eventuality, though he's orders of magnitude less optimistic about it happening "soon" than Kurzweil is.

  47. B.S. by RKBA · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I would rather have a historian predict the future than a self-appointed "Futurist."

    On the other hand, their proposed "technological singularity" has served well as the theme of a great many science fiction novels. ;-)

  48. Plant Wheel by Tony · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There are no creatures anywhere in nature which use wheels. Nor, as far as I know, plants.

    One word, my friend:

    Tumbleweeds.

    --
    Microsoft is to software what Budweiser is to beer.
  49. 3rd option: by JetScootr · · Score: 3, Funny

    - Moronic politicians get caught up in the hype, form a gov't agency called National Art-intel Singularity Administration to make it happen, and the country's resources in AI are drained away into ineffectiveness and software that keeps crashing.
    Nah, the gov't wouldn't do something that dumb.

    --
    Pavlov wouldn't be so famous if he'd used a can opener instead of a bell.
  50. Qualitative difference by alexgieg · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Computers operate from logic, be it the simple boolean one or the highly abstracted contemporary mathematical logic in its many forms (heuristic, fuzzy, even paraconsistent) that in the end get translated into boolean anyway. Humans, on the other hand, do logic as one among many function which aren't themselves logical.

    Of course you can try to emulate the non-logical functions inside a logical framework, but by doing so the machine gets trapped inside a kind of "Gödel paradox", forever unable to explain itself for lack of sufficient axioms ("sufficient" meaning "infinite"). Self-consciousness is then literally impossible.

    This isn't so bad as it seems. It only means that machines, no matter how advanced, are and will always be extensios of human faculties. In other words, we are their conscience, in the exact same sense that we're the conscience "behind" our hands and feet. Or, if you like to see it this way, machines and humans are already a single thing, as they have always been, since the instant our first ancestor decided to throw his first rock.

    The day humanity ends is the day all machines die. Some of them can of course keep working after that, more or less as some of our body organs sometimes stay working after our brain dies. But death is already there, unavoidable, only waiting for the power source to shut down. Death is the only real human-machine "singularity", that point after which we know nothing about. Any other is mere fiction.

    --
    Conservatism: (n.) love of the existing evils. Liberalism: (n.) desire to substitute new evils for the existing ones.
  51. Faster and faster by airship · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Post-humanism is like a snowball. As it rolls, it gets bigger and faster.

    I'll use myself as an example. I wore glasses from th 5th grade on. Six years ago, after 40 years of wearing glasses, I had cataract surgery that replaced my damaged lenses with plastic ones. (Complete with warranty cards, I might add; the future is weird.) I've had diabetes for 25 years. For the first 10, I treated it with diet. For the next 10, with pills. For most of the next 5, I injected a form of insulin that was created by RNA-modified bateria in vats. (For the previous 60 years, insulin had been taken from the harvested pancreases of slaughtered cattle.) For the last couple of months, I have been injecting tiny amounts of a new drug that was developed because a molecular biologist noticed that the molecular structure of a key insulin-regulating hormone was strikingly similar to that of gila monster venom.

    I take an additional 6 drugs that aid in further controlling my diabetes, control my asthma, keep my arthritis from crippling me, or act as preventatives for high blood pressure and heart disease.

    I am now 54 years old. In the Stone Age, I would have died before I was 20. Even in the early 20th century, I would have been lucky to make it to 30.

    We are very close to extending the human lifespan by one year every year. Don't think we Baby Boomers are going to get out of your way, kiddies. We're here for the long haul. :)

    --
    Serving your airship needs since 1995.
  52. Re:All intelligence is genuine, not artificial. by NitsujTPU · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim."
    -Edsger Dijkstra

    Thanks, I've been wondering the source ever since he brought it up.