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'Perfect Storm' of Mac Sales on the Horizon?
fkx writes to mention an eWeek article suggesting that, finally, the PC-using public is going to 'get' the Mac. According to the article, the new advertising, increased functionality of OSX, and Intel-based machines are all raising the profile of Apple's machines to new heights. From the article: "However, this cycle isn't your usual processor upgrade cycle that comes every time Intel or Advanced Micro Devices tweaks a process. This is a major shift that affects all parts of the Mac customer-developer-vendor ecology. Longtime Apple watchers can count two earlier events of similar magnitude. The first such transition occurred in March 1994 with the arrival of the PowerPC architecture. The Motorola 680x0 architecture that had served the Mac platform for a decade was quickly supplanted by a set of new, more powerful machines. "
Even I, a long time PC user wanted to get a MacBook, but... I don't have 1100 to drop on one. Damn me not having much money!
Yay, I have a sig.
... It is. Windows XP works pretty well, and there's really no more reason to switch PC platforms than there is to change your heat pump. It works. You'd be an idiot (quite literally) to waste time and money for no reason. That's the public attitude.
Sorry to upset you. Mod me down.
... doesn't care. A computer is about as exciting as a heat pump. It's a dusty tan box that sits under their $50 pressboard "computer table" from Wal-Mart that they turn on to check email and surf porn, and every so often, open a pirated copy of Word to update their resumes. A car, on the other hand, is one of the biggest status symbols that Americans have. That, and many people rely on cars to do important stuff, like get to work. Computers aren't used for anything more important that a paperclip for most people.
They face stiff competition when an almost identical Compaq laptop is $300 cheaper -- and has a bigger screen. Same CPU, same RAM, same graphics chip, same ports -- except the Compaq also support 802.11a -- same HD, etc.
With the Compaq you can opt for an AMD Turion 64 w/ATI graphics chipset instead of the Intel and it's CHEAPER. The Mac has the built-in camera but the Compaq has the option of a built-in Lightscribe DVD+-DL burner for $25 more.
Yes, the Mac is more fashionable but the big point is going to be OS X -- will the general public (i.e. -- not Apple fanboys) be willing the make the switch at a 30% premium?
-Charles
Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.
We're an x86/Linux family at the moment, but my wife sometimes gets frustrated by the lack of some commercial/proprietary software for Linux. She hasn't used a Mac in probably 10 years, and I have my doubts if she's going to find things any easier than on Linux, but she's certainly free to try it out.
Best-case scenario: She gets a 64-bit laptop pre-installed with an OS that she loves. She uses it for a few years and then hands it down to me and I convert it into a Linux mini-server.
Worst-case scenario: She gets a 64-bit laptop pre-installed with an OS she doesn't want after all, and we install Linux. This is no change from the present-day situation.
Mac hardware sales will certainly increase due to people like me. I have my doubts about the marketshare of MacOS though.
All in all, I look at the new Macs the same way I do IE7. I may not be interested in actually using them, but I'm glad to see they're getting more capable.
It's another set of eyes attempting to tackle the same problems. The 2 companies in competition may copy the good features of each other, or they may decide that they can do it better by heading back to the drawing board, and come up with a new way to tackle the problem.
Either way, we win.
I don't know about you guys, but I am the unfortunately "go to guy" for computers in my family. Until my family buys a Mac for me, I can't help them with their Mac problems. Thus, they won't get Macs. Sorry, family.
The *only* way that the general computer-buying public (read: not geeks) will massively switch to Apple is if Apple produces something that can compete in price with the $350 machines for sale at Walmart. Until then, the author of this article is living in a dream world.
I want a new quote. One that won't spill. One that don't cost too much. Or come in a pill.
I've got to say, I love my Mac. I used to love 'em, switched to PCs during the late Windows 3.1 timeframe, and then switched back last year.
Macs are growing, and they are growing fast. Apple's US laptop market-share DOUBLED in the last six months. Now one in eight laptops sold in the US are Macs. For an alternate OS, that is huge. And because the MacBook was released during the middle of that period, there was a disclaimer with those numbers that the trend will very likely continue.
And why not? Mac laptops are sexy. They look great. They have almost every feature you could want (I still don't understand why for such a media friendly company, they don't have media-card slots). They are light. They are thin. They are quiet. It amazes me that many new Dells and such have to have their fans on all the time and it's quite audible. When they dare to do anything complex, a little jet-plane enters the room. My Mac (admittedly a G4, although I hear the recent Intels aren't bad at all) is dead silent. It took me like 2 weeks to realize there was a fan in the thing (not that I was looking). When going full-tilt with graphics, it's about as loud as most people's Dells and such are at idle.
Macs have had (and still do) a few issues. Graphics cards is a major one. I hope the switch to Intel helps this more, because my 1 year old laptop has a sorry graphics card compared to what was available on PCs at the time (Radeon 9700 or 9800).
That said, the stars are converging for Apple. They have HUGE brand trust and are "cool" thanks to the iPod. Their hardware looks and performs excellent. The OS is amazing. I've been running Vista for about 18 months in the form of Tiger. When Vista comes out, I'll get Leopard and be ahead again. I help neighbors and such with computers and I can't tell you how many problems could be solved with a Mac. "I want to edit movies." If you had a Mac, you'd have all you need thanks to the amazing iLife. But they were on a PC so they had to buy a FireWire card, video editing software, DVD burning software, and none of it was as easy to use as the Mac software. I know people who can't find their files. They just don't get the filesystem organization (you've seen 'em: everything in My Documents). Spotlight would save them so many hassles. I've set them up with Google Desktop... but it's no the same. Spotlight is integrated into EVERYTHING. Even the standardized File dialogs.
Then there is the Intel switch. Biggest complaint from people I've told about Macs in the past? "Then I have to buy all new software." This is people who run everything from just a handful to expensive things like Photoshop. Now with Intel, you can get a Mac and run those programs though Parallels or dual-booting. End up not liking the Mac (I doubt it), you can run Windows FULL TIME. You have very little to lose for what you stand to gain. If this was available when I was looking, I would have bought a Mac about a year earlier.
Games could use a focus. Apple REALLY needs to advertise the OS. The latest ads were a good start, but I show people my Mac and even little things (the keyboard and screen responding to ambient light) wow them. Apple needs to get people to know about this stuff. Then there is stuff like Exposé that just blows their mind. They have seen NOTHING like it on the Windows side (as opposed to things like Spotlight that have rough equivalents).
My biggest problem with Apple for the last 4 years or so (both as an observer and now as a user) has been their lack of advertising of OS X. They seem to be stuck with an almost word-of-mouth sales techniques. Maybe with recent moves (more stores, going into Best Buys and using Apple personnel to run the Mac section) will help.
The Mac market is already exploding. Just wait to see what happens after WWDC. With the real power desktops out, I wonder how much their market share numbers will jump. What will Leopard do (especially if they advertise it). What will happen in Back-To-School season (between the MacBook and their recent free-iPod-with-Mac-purchase programs), and Christmas?
Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
Except their products are, you know ... good.
When's the last time you saw one of Apple's products bomb spectacularly in a demo? I can remember exactly when the last time I saw such a thing was. It was the WWDC keynote where Jobs previewed Tiger. The computer started behaving oddly, and almost before the audience picked up on it, Jobs flipped a switch and the back-up system appeared on the big screen. Demo continued.
When's the last time a Microsoft product demo failed catastrophically? YESTERDAY.
So much for "just like Microsoft."
This is the one Mac criticism that I agree with. I switched despite it. I just didn't play enough games on my computer to have that hold me back to Windows. That said, Macs are behind in that respect. Boot Camp improves it, so does the switch to Intel (Macs, especially the laptops, were horridly underpowered). The graphics card issue still needs to be addressed.
There are quite a few people who only play casual games, and the Mac is fine for that. If you want it enough, you can use Boot Camp. Most of the other games that many "gamers" play (like the Sims 2 series) is available on the Mac.
However, the hardcore gamer market is willing to drop HUGE chunks of money on hardware. If Apple could improve this a little, I think they could get another vocal community on their side.
Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
All of them, including myself, consider their computer to be an indispensable part of their lives and find it upsetting, even traumatic -- I'm not exaggerating -- when the machine crashes or they get the BSOD, or any of the VERY numerous problems associated with PCs and Microsoft products.
These are the people who are moderate to heavy users, but *aren't* sufficiently skilled to fix whatever the problem du jour is. And this is where things get interesting with respect to the Mac.
A very close family member who IS a software engineer has said to me on more than one occasion after fixing the aforementioned problem of the day; "you should get a Mac next time" and "You really are a Mac user at heart, you want things to just work and that isn't going to happen with a PC running windows."
And so, after 15 years of owning PCs I am very seriously considering switching when this machine becomes obsolete or something gives out. I expect that to be within the next 12-18 months and yes, I'm saving money for a Mac. I've had concerns about software being available, but more and more, I see that the programs I run are also available for the Mac.
With that last hurdle taken away, why WOULDN'T I, and people like me, switch?
The answer is, we will.
You see, if you can give people a genuinely better alternative that *also* allows them to feel good about their purchase, they will go with that alternative. Most of us don't want to support a monopoly and are disgusted with Microsoft's business practices.
Until lately, however, switching to a Mac hasn't really been a viable option for those of us who have used PCs for many years. Now that this is changing, you'll find more and more PC users happy to switch over when upgrade time come around.
By now, most people know the cheapest solution is not the best or even good for them. There are ultra cheap TVs on the market, but most people don't buy them. Likewise, I know people burned by ultra cheap PCs and won't consider them again - thing has pathetic amount of ram (and OSes eat ram these days - the default minimum today is not enough in 2 years or even today with any type of semi-intensive program).
I have saved on Mac MORE than the amount of times I used to spend on Windows fiddling with it. No, it's not even geek like fiddling, as it didn't give one any deeper understanding how the system to work (registry), it was fiddling to get the system to work, period.
If you compare Mac to something like Ubuntu Linux with PC hardware, yes, than you have a fair comparison - Ubuntu is great, doesn't break often, nor get viruses, etcetera.
But since these people probably run Windows, I have to ask: Do you value your time as much as I do? I'm tired of Windows, ad-aware, spybot search and destroy, A/V software, and the 6/12 month reinstall with all the joy that comes from that.
I'm not going to couter with form factor, but what is it about 20-30% premium? It's not an order of a magnitude more expensive. My sanity/time is worth 20-30%.
Apple: lax DRM, allows the user to pretty much do what they want except copy their music to someone else's computer (although they could authenticate on up to five computers).
Microsoft: DRM specifically allows refusal of all copying and burning, secure video channels, secure audio channels and supports the upcoming HDMI fiasco.
Apple: No validation when you install the OS, or at any point afterwards. (There is a hardware validation, but the user is never presented with it.)
Microsoft: Key validation requiring the OS to call home periodically, certain hardware changes may trigger key de-authentication.
Apple: The user will be honest.
Microsoft: The user cannot be trusted.
Yep. Apple are *just* like Microsoft. Those last two are debatable, but sum up where I see both DRM camps coming from.
But hey! What do I know? I don't buy the Microsoft apologist fan-boy stuff either! Stand-by for overbearing reaction to each sentence I've written by a rabid Zune-rabbit-patting Microsoft zealot in 3... 2... 1...
Not meaning to troll, but what the hell are you talking about? For protected HD content from the new formats, you'll eventually require an HDCP-compliant display and output device. Which you can have over DVI or HDMI, and there are a few monitors that already support this. This goes for blu-ray and HD-DVD players just as much as ANY computer system, be it Vista, XP (assuming they actually write playback software) or OS X. Microsoft isn't pushing for content protection any more than Apple is, it's been required of them so people don't complain that their new MCE05 system won't play so much as a DVD. Love them or hate them, Microsoft isn't stupid about this - they know that content protection is a royal pain in the ass for consumers, but either they play along or they don't get the content. And with their digital home push, I'll leave it up to you which one their choice is.
The content industry said that HDCP will be required for legal full-resolution playback on content with the ICT set (nothing now, but at some point (supposedly 2010 or later), all of the content on the winning HD format). So either support it or you can't play. Blaming Microsoft is either really ignorant or really fanboyish. Apple will require it too, the only difference that Apple controls its hardware so well that it should be fairly transparent to the end-user, unlike PCs where we tend to have a lot more give. Of course, displays are the one area where Apple products tend to have that give, but at least with the notebooks and iMacs, you can be damned sure that the display will be connected by an HDCP-compliant connection when they're packing a next-gen optical drive. I wouldn't be especially surprised to see Apple to be giving the Mac Pro an HDCP-compliant output at WWDC, or upgrading their Cinema displays for the same. Microsoft just writes the software - they have NO control over the hardware it goes on - so they take flak when these inconsistencies occur. If it was all well-done, everything with digital output and/or input would have been compliant for the start, and none of us would have been any the wiser since it's all transparent. But it's not, and Microsoft makes an excellent scapegoat. Blame Sony, they're the ones that actually helped come up with the stupid idea (with many others I'm sure, but they're also an excellet scapegoat) - just like CSS and AACS, but those two (well, we'll wait to see with regards to the latter) are transparent enough that it's usually not much of an issue.
How are sites slashdotted when nobody reads TFAs?
I see.... so tried is a new euphemism for pirated?
Paradimes in OSX that suck: 1) To eject a CD-ROM, USB-key, or external storage, I drag it to the trash. That seems illogical to me.
I think the word you were looking for was "paradigms". Drives are dragged to the trash because you are not only ejecting the media but you are writing the file system buffer back to the drive (in the case of read/write media) and deleting its cache. With XP, you are also supposed to eject USB devices before disconnecting them for the same reason.
2) To install a program, I "click-and-drag" it to my "hard drive". I had to google how to install something in OSX. Double-clicking the downloaded file yielded some puzzling prompt I can't recall.
First of all, did it occur to you to RTFM? Second, you are not "installing" anything but rather copying the application bundle from the disk image for folder on the desktop to your applications directory. I call FUD on this one since most applications will run from a disk image let alone from the desktop. You should not expect it to behave like windows.
3) Driver management is a nightmare. Sure, it works great with Mac hardware, but who wants to be locked into one brand? Oh wait, Mac-happy fan-boys do.
What driver management? Oh wait, you are running a pirated/cracked version on your Dell. Did you expect it to work on your Dell? Locked in? How do you like the WMA ecosystem and being locked into windows?
4) OSX feels like an OS that is 50 feet thick. And by that I mean it feels like there's layer upon layer of abstraction, as if it were trying to protect me from seeing how a computer really works. So you are saying that you do not like user friendly OS design and Object Oriented systems? If you want to hack away, go to http://developer.apple.com/ and read the documentation. Install the Developer tools and play with Interface builder. The power of the OS is all there for developers to extend. I think you are confusing complicated interfaces with "power". Open up a terminal windows and fill your boots.
5) OSX is not very business friendly. It doesn't fit business-logic.
What an absurd statement. Could you quantify that? By business friendly do you mean MIS friendly? Is it too damn easy to use that you are afraid business people might just use their computers are tools without needing so many MSCE's on their payroll?
6) The bundled applications were inferior. Give me Outlook Express over Apples default mail application any day. That thing was an utter, illogical, painful experience to configure.
More FUD and bullshit. You have got to be kidding me. Mail in Tiger has features features in common with Outlook 2003 like message grouping by topic threads. What is there to configure beyond email accounts and signatures?
7) OSX is slow. Seriosuly, it's just not as snappy as winXP. Granted, I was running OSx86 on a Dell laptop, but I've used OSX on a mac before, and it really is a little laggy from all the superflorous garbage it distracts you with. "Ooooh, dancing icon. Thor like!"
Yeah, having a GUI with a GPU accelerated compositing engine can be a bit slower than a simple bitblitter graphical stack like GDI+. Try out Vista and you will see how it is not as snappy either when running the Aero Glass interface.
To anyone who is considering buying a Mac: Try using OSX first!
That is one thing we can agree on. I would also suggest people try out Vista before blindly upgrading to it.
In my honest opinion, I think Windows Vista will pave over OSX when it's released.
Right. Do you even know anything about the current state of Vista compared with what was promised at PDC 2003? I use XP more than I use OS X simply because that is what I use at work and I used XP at home until the end of 2002. I'm afraid that your "experience" with a
pirated
X86 Tiger install does not qualify you to critique the OS X.Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
I'd buy a mac in a heartbeat. I would still have to use a windows PC though for some software i use.
:)
The truth is, Windows sucks. Its a peice of shit. Windows 32bit... should be dead. We should all be running 64bit windows, Not VISTA 32bit.
Microsoft is going to continue the 32bit mistake, with vista.
Microsoft has no balls when it comes to progress. They dont take risks. They worry about everyone running dos applications from 89. It's time they stop caring about 32bit, 16bit app support and cut the cord. Go all 64bit Vista, force the stupid hardware manufacturers to deliver 64bit drivers, and not 32bit drivers.
I'm tired of Microsoft. I really am. There is no innovation. They take forever to release an operating system, and its never anything new. Vista will have a new ui... and will require me to buy a new pc... yay. I hope it offers more than that...
Linux isnt ready...
The MAC is.
I've been saying this for a while, due to the success of IPOD... people have a perception of quality when it comes to Apple produc ts. They will pay more for it because they understand that it works better, and their IPOD was so dam cool.
Apple has balls, they really do innovate... Microsoft will do just fine with Vista, but many people will go Mac. I'll join them someday as well. I can not stand Microsoft products. Just look at Their media player attempt. Its garbage. Its version 11 and they dont have a good media player. Sure its trying to copy Itunes (quite poorly) but its a horrible video player. It has terrible playback controls and functions. Its a toy. Media Player Classic beat it years ago, as did winamp, and quicktime (on the mac) quicktime pc sucks). The dam media player is version 11. Version 1-10 sucked... 10 dam versions... and now 11... ? IT still sucks.
Microsoft does not make software will everyone in mind. They dont care what people need from their software... they design it, how they feel you should use it. Maybe thats why it takes them so long to code an os. They dont listen to the people yelling at the door... they ignore them and make whatever they want, and whatever the MPAA/RIAA want them to do.
Its apparent that Jobs was always correct about Microsoft. They steal ideas after they're safe to do, and they always do it poorly.
That is more true than ever, the evidence is 98, 98SE, Mill, 2000, XP, Vista, Media Player 11, IE etc. They are late to the party because they cant do it right... and it takes them forever to even get close.
I've had enough of this crap.
The fact that vista is 32bit is the last straw. Microsoft cant progress us into the future because they're a lame duck. They're holding back 64bit because the average user can get away with 32bit and 4gigs ram max, and a cripple ware os.
I suppose when you go car shopping you complain that a fairly reliable Honda costs 20%-30% more than an unreliable, poorly designed GM. Sure, the Honda gets 25% better fuel economy, performs better and doesn't break down as much, but the GM is cheaper and it has a longer warranty than the Honda.
And to uninstall a program, while it might seem like a no-brainer to drag an application to the trash to uninstall it, that does not get rid of it if you've added it to the dock. For more advanced users that's not a big deal, but it's certainly not more "intuitive" than using an uninstall applet that gets rid of everything - start menu shortcuts and all - in one swat.
How often have you uninstalled software running on Windows? Unless the uninstaller is well written uninstalling software always leaves little bits and pieces sprinkled on your hd, dll, inf, and what have you. Even in the registry where they can mess up the operation of Windows. Now I know software adds preferences to Macs but I don't know if left there they will cause any problems. Actually the only thing I've installed on a Mac was Norton Utilities and that was back in '92 I think. But I've installed, uninstalled, and reinstalled a lot of software on Windows. Once I even had to reinstall Windows because a software install went wrong. Actually I've had to do a reformat and reinstall of Windows because the system kept crashing. The first tyme this happened I had a new Gateway when I started having trouble. When I called tech support the tech walked me through a number of things then told me I needed to reformat the hd and reinstall Windows. And now, again I'm having trouble, this tyme with my mouse. Sometimes the cursor doesn't move at other tymes it's jumping all over the place. I had the same problem last December and first I reinstalled Windows but when I still had the problem so I got a new mouse. That helped for a while but then I started having the same problem, so again I got a new mouse. Just days later with the new mouse, it started doing the same thing. Now I had both mice hooked up using ps2 but the mouse came with a usb adaptor so a few days ago I plugged it into my usb hub after I uninstalled the mouse from the control panel and rebooted. I still have the problems.
FalconShould there be a Law?
I've never really understood this attitude.
:)
I know quite a few people that do similar things, and it really seems like they spend more time futzing with their cobbled-together systems and trying to decide what to upgrade next, than actually doing stuff with them and just enjoying having something that works the way it's supposed to.
I'm not advocating a 'disposable culture' here, just saying that it seems to make a lot more sense to me to save up money for a while, get something that's really nice and you'll really enjoy using and not have to worry about for a while, use it until it's absolutely unbearable (which I define as 'no longer will run critical pieces of software'), then repeat, keeping the old machine as a backup/server/space-heater/whatever.
Maybe there's a fundamental difference in how people view computers, I suppose. I guess if you look at it as a hobby, and enjoy the upgrades, that's one thing; I really don't. My hobby isn't working on my computer, it's working with my computer. It's a tool, and one that I want to just work as transparently as possible, so that I can do stuff with it. So to that end, I just figure on dropping about two grand every three or four years (although I have done mid-cycle upgrades of hard drives and RAM) and then not having to worry about it.
I thought about a car analogy here, but I decided to do everyone a favor and skip it.
"Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
Bzzt. Thanks for playing. [PDF] You're right, though. Lots of IBM software is not available for Mac OS X. Like Lotus Notes and ViaVoice.
I'm not going to disagree with you about software availability. However, I think what you'll find is that you may have problems finding a "brand" that you're comfortable with. Everyone's favorite example: AutoCAD. Of course, there are plenty of CAD solutions on the Mac. However, if you must use AutoCAD for some reason, you're out of luck. This is true for games--a particular example of branding. If you're the sort of person who has to play the latest hottest game as soon as it comes out, you're out of luck on the Mac. For example, I got Star Wars: Battlefront for Mac OS X this past Christmas. It shipped in July 2005--about 10 months after the Windows release. So it certainly wasn't the hottest game by the time I got to play it. I still like playing it, though.
Well, some of your concerns are just plain wrong.
Again, in the consumer realm on the software side, I think you're taking about games. Everything else is covered. In that realm, suggest they buy an Xbox 360 or Wii for the kids to play games with. Mom & Dad will be happier about not having to kick the kids off the computer anyway.
Hardware, I'm a bit lost on. What do you mean "breath of hardware upgrades" for consumers. Are you saying that you can't upgrade memory, hard disks, or video cards on a Mac? Sorry, Macs use industry-standard hard drives. If anything, the problem with Macs are that they tend to be ahead of the curve, so you might have to buy Serial-ATA drives instead of a cheapo ATA/66 hard drive and that will cost you more money. Same with memory--the iMac uses PC2-5300 memory which is more expensive than other types. For example, a 1GB upgrade is about $165. For a Dell XPS200, 1GB of PC2-4200 memory is $120.
From the business software side, I might agree. But, before I do, I'd point out that Macs are cheaper for a business to support than Windows. So, obviously, the more Macs you have, the cheaper it will be. So suppose we ask this question: What job positions require Windows PCs?
Receptionist? That job is mostly about e-mail, etc. All available on Mac. Sales? Again, e-mail, etc. Perhaps some database access for looking up inventory and such, which can be done via the web. Macs have web browsers, so that should be fine. So we could switch Sales. Marketing? Ooh...lots of graphics and such. Plenty of room for Macs in marketing. General Management? Show me a software category that is used by general management that is not available on the Mac.
Engineering? Well, if you're developing Windows software, you need some Windows machines. There are also some great tools for other engineering disciplines which are not available on the Mac. Fair enough. Engineering keeps it Windows machines.
Accounting? There's accounting software for Macs, believe it or not, but I'll let them keep their Windows machines. There are some great accounting solutions for Windows.