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PS3 Japanese Estimates Down, No 360 Price Drop
There are unhappy gamers on a couple sides of the console wars today. IGN is reporting that Japan's allotment of 100,000 PS3 units will actually be more like 80,000. From that article: "The lack of digits in that number is even more staggering when you consider that the PS2 sold out of nearly a million units when it launched back in March of 2000. Having lived through a few weeks of attempting to obtain a PS3 pre-order, we're not too surprised by the lowered shipping numbers. Allocations disappeared quickly at online retailers that were brave enough to start pre-order programs. The online arm of media retailer Tsutaya ran out of units in 6 minutes according to Nikkei (it felt more like 1 minute to us)." Meanwhile, the Seattle PI reports that Microsoft has once again denied the possibility of a 360 price drop any time soon.
...they run out of batteries for controllers?
"an experienced, industrious, ambitious, and often, quite often, picturesque liar" - Mark Twain
Considering the price of the PS3, I'm not surprised Sony expected a lower turn-out, and I'm not surprised MS is holding on the price of the Xbox. What I am surprised at is that anyone else is.
Nintendo fans report feeling "alright" about the current turn of events. As one astutely commented, "Meh."
Gamertag: WyleType
...Sony giving away vouchers for a PS3 on launch day for when one becomes available so they can bump up the initial sales figures.
Build a man a fire and he'll be warm for an hour. Set him on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
We aren't going to ship 4 Million, we're going ship 2 by the end of the year
We aren't going to ship to Europe until March.
We are dropping the lower priced system's price by 10000 yen(or so) in japan but we're not scared
We aren't going to be able to make the launch numbers.
Jesus, could they be any stupider? Now they are running advertisements for the PS3 on TV. what? Do they think they are going to get more interest with a doll in the ad rather then showing game play? The simple fact is they want people killing each other to get the system, and it's just not happening. They can't sell more than they are shipping, and that's already low, but they need people to drool so much they aren't picking up a 360 instead. What's worse, those guys who preorder or who will go the distance, probably have a 360 at home so while they gain market share, they aren't getting the 1 system families.
The PS3 has been a huge mistake every step of the way, and just when you think it is over.... it's not.
Hell I wouldn't be surprised if the systems don't boot up or immediately don't work, Sony's track record wasn't great, but the PS3 makes me think there was a mandatory lobotomy of all Sony management.
And this doesn't get into the fact that Sony's advertising diversion is.... well if Management got lobotomies, they got headectomies. Their advertising isn't just weak, it's ineffectual.
These guys can jockey for position all they want, I'm holding out for the Okama Gamesphere.
This will be *the* cheapest Blu-Ray player out there and is priced to go head-to-head with the Toshiba HDA1 HD-DVD player. I think a lot of people will be buying it, and I'm wondering out of those people, how many are buying it for Hi-Def movies. The PS3 might do well if they also try courting non-gaming theater buffs. The inclusion of the Blu-Ray drive may be a huge factor in making the PS3 viable and marketable, while also bolstering their Blu-Ray efforts.
Jesus, could they be any stupider?
Enough said.
I don't know, that doll was pretty creepy. Maybe the advertisers are making it part of a campaign that will climax with: "buy a ps3 or this doll will come and kill you in your sleep"
Monstar L
If it is "all about the games", what kind of effect is this going to have on those developers working towards "Launch Window" games? Will the effect be minimal, because those who actually buy the system have all the disposable income imaginable to buy every single game out there? Or are we looking at marketing budgets going to the toilet because nobody has the console anyway? 80,000 on release day in Japan, and they expect how many by the end of the first month? Could it be possible that the Xbox360 will beat the PS3 in (holding infinitesimally small portions of the) Japanese market share, simply because Sony can't build them fast enough?
So the PS3 is gonna blow this holiday season too, and no doubt it's due to the whole Blue-Ray thing.
They're really missing an opportunity with their commercials.
To get the best sense of the graphical prowess of the modern consoles, you need an effectively-uncompressed video feed. The gameplay videos you can download, by and large, don't cut it; they can show gameplay but they can't show the graphics. They are compressed far more than a TV feed and typically shrunk to less than NTSC resolution, let alone HDTV resolution.
TV is the best place to be putting out some game clips that really show the PS3 kicking ass graphically. Instead we get a doll, being spooky for no reason I've been able to figure out.
I don't have an HDTV, but even TV resolution would be a step up. And for those who do have an HDTV, it would probably be awesome.
"Where's the beef", Sony?
Hell, I would be pissed off if they dropped the price in Japan. I just noticed it is up for 37,795 yen on the Amazon JP site. This is roughly equivlent to $321USD.
I always get a chuckle at these denials and the fact that they're even reported as news. Of course Microsoft is going to deny a price drop (even if it's coming), just the way Nintendo denied they were remaking the DS...announcing a price drop would kill current sales of the 360's as everyone would hold out until the price drop actually occurred.
For all that rant, there is a good point to consider in there. Namely, what if there are defective PS3s?
Microsoft got a good lashing last year when a fair number of their consoles had issues. Not a very significant number, but enough that word got around the net fast. You can argue that perhaps we were looking for reasons for the 360 to fail, but you can make that same argument now for the PS3.
If the launch is anything short of perfect, we're going to hear about it. Seeing as how only the hardcore, internet competent gamers will have managed to snag one of these at launch it's only going to take one failure out of 480k systems for there to be a huge todo about it.
If there's only one failure, it'll be FUD. One in 480k is pretty good. However, people will assume there are more failures and the FUD will spread and it will be generally bad for Sony until it get cleared up.
However, if there are a much more sizable number of failures the damage that could be done to Sony's brand is enormous. If they can't launch a year after Microsoft without repeating all of the same mistakes (low launch numbers, faulty systems and not that many interesting games) it does not reflect well on them. That isn't the kind of launch a market leader should have.
Honestly, I'm not sure if Sony can "win" when it comes to this launch. I suspect that barring a miracle we'll be bombarded with negative press, some true and a good amount of FUD, against Sony. The hardcore gamers are the ones in control of the internet media, and they are also largely the ones pissed off at Sony (sometimes to a shocking degree of irrationality). Those who were unable to, or unwililng to, get a PS3 will pounce instantly on any mistake and blow it out of proportion.
I do not envy Sony's position.
Thunderclone: ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE! ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE!
They would have easily sold at least 500K (half the amount the ps2 instantly sold out of on the first day) on launch day no matter the price. The places that offered online pre-orders in japan were out of units within 6 minutes.
Hmmm... Pie...
"Stupider" is perfectly valid word. Notice the first suffix in the below definition (taken from the New Oxford American Dictionary)
stupid
adjective ( -pider, -pidest)
lacking intelligence or common sense : I was stupid enough to think she was perfect.
dazed and unable to think clearly : apprehension was numbing her brain and making her stupid.
informal used to express exasperation or boredom : she told him to stop messing with his stupid painting.
Notice the first suffix.
"Our opponent is an alien starship packed with atomic bombs. We have a protractor."
Haven't most games console adverts (for the system itself) been completley bizzare, and only vaugley related to gaming though? I'm in the UK, and we've had plenty of odd ads: What has an alien faces Scotswoman to do with the PlayStation, or The Third Place to do with the PS2? Or the later Fun Anyone? ads for that matter. From cradle to grave (and later banned), but does it really say much about the Xbox? The fake gunfight to sell the Xbox 360 is a bit more game related than most though. After the odd "barbers" launch ad I can't find online, Sega did try a more direct approach to selling Dreamcast online play to the Europeans - stereotyping your neighbours (that's a French one stereotyping the British, the UK had similar ones attacking France etc., that were later banned). So you know, weird ads are nothing new.
It's probably all about raising the profile of the brand or some other marketing nonesense of course...
10 PRINT "LOOK AROUND YOU ";
20 GOTO 10
Actually people are already a little suspicious of the console.
Let's start with the PSX? The first YEAR of console production had overheating issues. This isn't one batch, most of the early consoles had issues with this. But at least the console didn't break of get destroyed (though a couple discs got scratched).
Then the PS2, was a lot better, less overheating (though some), but after a couple years we got DREs, Disk read errors to those who don't know. PS1 games no longer were read, some PS2 games didn't work. Sony allowed people to send in their consoles and fixed them if they were under warranty (or you pretended they were).
Microsoft's track record isn't perfect but the Sony's is a lot more to be fearful of. Let's look at what they are giving us. Blu-ray, HDMI, Cell processors, Motion controlled controllers... If nothing fails over 3 years, it's a miracle. I'll be impressed if they have no real failures at launch, but I'll be even more impressed if after 1 year they don't have more problems the then the 360 has right now.
Could a Japanese developer releasing a launch title in Japan exclusively even break even on development costs with that limited amount of consoles?
Japanese Allotment: 80k
American Allotment: 400k
Population of Japan: 127.42 million
Previous Japanese Market Volume: 30.31 million (Dreamcast + Gamecube + PS2 in Japan)
Number of PS3s per person: 1 per 1593
Number of PS3s per gamer: 1 per 379
Potential Market Share at Launch: 0.26% (Allotment / Previous Volume)
Population of America: 300.00 million
Previous American Market Volume: 70.8 million (Xbox + Gamecube + PS2)
Number of PS3s per person: 1 per 750
Number of PS3s per gamer: 1 per 177
Potential Market Share at Launch: 0.56%
Combined Potential Market Share: 0.47% (480k) [5.66% relative Market Share]
Current 360 Market Share: 5.93% (6 million) [70.07% relative Market Share]
Potential Wii Launch Market Share: 1.98% (2 million) [23.59% relative Market Share]
Projected March 07 Market Share: 5.93% (6 million) [27.28% relative Market Share]
360 March 07 Market Share: 9.89% (10 million) [45.46% relative Market Share]
Wii March 07 Market Share: 5.93% (6 million) [27.28% relative Market Share]
Thunderclone: ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE! ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE!
Microsoft's pricing strategy leaves room for the Wii to really take off. The Xbox 360 is not just competing with the PS3, it is also competing with Nintendo's console. High definition graphics don't matter to the majority of people who are currently using standard definition televisions. I don't think that demand for Zelda/Mario/Metroid is as high as the Nintendo faithful would have you believe, but the Wii will sell very well if its competitors prices are sky high.
Why doesn't Microsoft kick Sony while it's down? I don't believe that the Playstation brand name will guarantee Sony's victory, but it is a massive advantage. Microsoft needs to sell as many Xbox 360s as they can before Sony works out its production issues. The more consoles sold, the greater the number of games released for the console. No developer in their right mind wants to develop a game exclusively for the PS3 without a bundle of cash from Sony. But if Sony can cut their production costs and start to turn out a large number of PS3s, Microsoft will be in a terrible position. Microsoft shouldn't wait until this happens, they need to start screwing over Sony now.
In Canada it seems that the Xbox 360 is staying the same price, but games are being added. Recently I saw a bundle which included the Xbox 360 premium system, Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter, Ridge Racer 6 and Xbox Live Arcade Unplugged for $499.99 CAN. A direct link to the bundle didn't work, go to futureshop.ca and look at the Xbox 360 console bundles. $499.99 CAN is the standard price for the Xbox 360 premium console in Canada. When I look at the American Best Buy site, I don't see similar bundles being offered.
Why buy the Okama imitator when you can have a genuine Odama game sphere for GameCube?
You'd need to either put larger textures or run some non-linear sharpening algorithm on them. Otherwise, objects close enough for their textures to be drawn at the highest level of MIP-mapping won't look any sharper. In addition, use of the 3D hardware to draw 2D objects such as status bars and fighting game characters causes artifacts at texture edges that may be more apparent at unanticipated HDTV resolutions (e.g. 1280x720) than at anticipated EDTV resolutions (e.g. 640x480). If there isn't any Wii HD hardware to test on before the game goes gold, then the problems might not show up in the "lot check" certification process. Notice how some PS1 games artifacted when run with smooth textures on the PS2; it's a similar principle.
I don't have an Oxford American Dictionary, but my OED, Webster, WordNet, and Random House all disagree with that.
I'm sure, if Sony had wanted to, they could've spent many millions on new facilities and ramped production up to the point where a million units would've been available. But that would've been a risk, considering the high price of the unit (which might've gone higher because of the additional production expense) and the potential competition from HD-DVD. Given that, I would've wussed out too, and taken the confidence hit rather than risk having to liquidate a huge glut of expensive machines.
Ever notice how the most pedantic know-it-alls are, in fact, the stupidest people of all?
After New Zealand and Australia found Sony and other DVD player makers guilty of competition law violations through the DVD region coding system, and likely for other reasons as well, Sony has decided to make games on the PLAYSTATION 3 console region-free. This gives Japanese publishers greater incentive to sell games that don't involve a lot of text to gaijin like us.
What's the matter, when you're going to call somebody a name you have to switch to anonymous mode? All that link does is confirm some of what I said, and add the American Heritage dictionary to your list. Don't be such a wuss.
I don't have an Oxford American Dictionary, but my OED, Webster, WordNet, and Random House all disagree with that.
I would you suggest that you measure the validity of a word not by how many different dictionaries it appears in, but rather by how obvious it makes the concept it attempts to express.
"Stupider" is a perfectly cromulent word. You'd have to be stupider than a tree to be unable to understand its meaning of "more stupid".
Actually, according to the print edition of the Wall Street Journal, Sony's in serious trouble and at major risk of damaging their entire company with the disasterous PS3 launch, combined with the battery recall.
Meanwhile, Nintendo is laughing all the way to the bank and quietly gearing up production as fast as it can.
I'll be pondering that on Nov. 19th when my son and I line up in Seattle to get our pre-ordered Wii and then spend the day driving to Costco and ToysRUs and Fred Meyer to buy another one for a friend of his who only brought $25 when he lined up all night to buy a Wii at Northgate Mall.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
There are some poor choices for ads, but there's some great ones.
The point I was making was Sony is advertising something they will sell out of. Assume Audi makes 200,000 cars of a new ST type (Stylish touring). They then sell all 200,000 of the initial run. Would it be smart for them to run adds for the ST? Not really. Now if they are going to make more, it might be smart so people might hold off on buying another car and see if they can get an ST
However in Sony's case their ads have been completely ineffectual because they don't say "don't by a Xbox 360, wait for a PS3" They say "creepy baby will stab you in the eye if you don't buy a Ps3", which is probably actually pretty effectual, but it's probably not exactly what they were trying to say, I may have read too much into it. They claim to have better graphics, they claim to have better controls, yet instead of showing what their system CAN do, they are showing odd advertising. It's not called viral advertising, when people only talk about how bad your ads are.
Well then, by your logic, I agree. I think that "stupider" is a distinctively cromulent word.
It's the New American Dictionary, it's stupider by definition.
Fanatically anti-fanatical
-- jchenx
I don't know, that doll was pretty creepy.
I second this. It did nothing to make me want to buy the console itself. If anything, I was turned off to the product. They can't possibly be trying to gain mindshare at this point, but you never know.
Qualitas edurus commercium, nullus penitus net rimor, nullus deus beneficium
The one mistake that will absolutely doom the PS3 is low production counts. Not having 2 millon PS3 units shipped by Christmas will be bad for Sony.