Microsoft Sticks to 10M Xbox Projection

Despite the strong gains of the Wii, and the PS3's sellout, Microsoft is sticking to its claim that it will be the first next-gen console to 10 million units. They're still hoping to reach that goal sometime this year. From the article: "Just how feasible that number is remains open. Microsoft's latest financial report at the end of September revealed that the company had moved 6 million Xbox 360s worldwide. And in his latest analysis, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter said NPD data that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months. Pachter further predicted that 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units would be sold in November, and between 1.5 - 2 million units in December, a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas." That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low. The article goes on to point out they still may squeak this out; the Blue Dragon bundle pack for the 360 is releasing in Japan this week. Preorders for the system have been selling out, and demand in that market is high for the Xbox 360 for the first time since launch.

Comments

Hey

[antifoidulus]

a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas."

That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low.

I dunno, having none all the time is pretty damn consistent :P

Re:Maybe

[HappySqurriel]

I was doing the arithmetic a couple of days ago and realized that, if Microsoft and Sony both meet sales projections, Microsoft will have an 8 Million unit lead worldwide. This lead would mean that Sony would have to sell (about) 333,000 more PS3 systems than Microsoft sells XBox 360 systems for the next 2 years to catch up to Microsoft; in order to lead in all regions almost all these sales would have to come from North America and Europe. Until the PS3 matches the sales of the XBox 360 they will have difficulty getting exclusive game development for the system making it very difficult to sell systems.

Nextgenwars.com

[Daemonstar]

Nexgenwars.com has a site that shows the (supposed) current running sales of each console.

• Xbox360: 8,058,282

• PS3: 383,525

• Wii: 1,203,618

Of course, they don't state how or where they get their information. :P

Been hearing rumours for a week or two about...

[Assmasher]

...shortages of Cell processors because IBM's server (which utilize the chip) are selling like hotcakes...

Re:Not without a price drop

[MooseMuffin]

Myself and 3 friends have all bought 360s in the last 2 months. Just sayin'

Re:Not without a price drop

[PygmySurfer]

Same here, and I've heard of a few other people that recently picked one up through friends and co-workers. Hopefully now that the PS3 is out, people will see how overpriced it really is, and take a look at the alternatives.

10 million don't mean squat

[vonPoonBurGer]

If you look at the numbers for the previous generation, you'll quickly realize that 10 million is a piddling number:

* Nintendo GameCube: 21.20 Million as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 4.02, The Americas: 12.44, Other: 4.75)
* PlayStation 2: 111.25 Million shipped as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 23.99, USA: 44.86, Europe: 42.40)
* Sega Dreamcast: 10.6 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 2.30, Other: 8.30)
* Xbox: more than 24 Million as of May 10, 2006

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Console_wars#World_wi de_sales_figures_5 for sources. Out of the more than 160 million previous gen systems sold, fully 2/3rds were PS2s. The Dreamcast sold 10 million for crying out loud, and look where they ended up. The first console to break the 50 million mark is probably going to be the dominant system, and we're a long way off from that. MS has a head start, but it's still anyone's game.

Re:10 million don't mean squat

[HappySqurriel]

I don't know what the number is, but once you get a lead of a certain size you can essentially run away with the generation; after your userbase lead is large enough you will get all cross platform development and you're likely to get most of the exclusive content as well.

The PS2 had a 80 Million unit lead because they started off getting a 10 Million unit lead ...

Re:10 million don't mean squat

[AArmadillo]

Ten million is considered important because analysts have said that the first system to ten million sales will be the top next generation console. This is based on there being a certain point of no return where a console simply has so much momentum that nearly every third party developer makes games for it. Analysts point to the PS2 becoming dominant right after it sold 8 million consoles to justify this. Of course, analysts are often wrong, but fifty million is way too high for the point of no return. Considering no non-first place console has ever sold more than fifty million consoles, you are only saying 'whoever is the dominant console will be the dominant console'. There is a point before that, just like in a race, where one can say 'wow, that one is so far ahead and has so much momentum that the only way they will lose is if something goes horribly wrong.' Whether that is ten million or thirty million is anyone's guess but fifty million is the finish line.

Re:Not without a price drop

[Fozzyuw]

While looking for a Wii, I overheard some Best Buy employees saying that they were selling a lot of Xbox360s simply because parents looking for a console for their kids can't get their hands on anything else.

Add my co-worker to this list. She was talking about getting her kids a new system, during all the PS3 launch frenzy, and then I informed her of the differences and the choices. She was going to get a Wii, but could not find any and has no patience or care to stand in line and fight for one. She also found out her kids own an Xbox, so she's getting them a 360 instead, which I said would be a good choice if they already own the Xbox.

The worst thing Sony could have done is kill their holiday sales by not having enough units. Unfortunately, this happened and Sony's going to get stung by it. Once the holiday is over, that $600 price tag will be for those who really want one. Everyone else will be pinching pennies after feeling like they just spent a lot over the last couple months. Of course, there's always next year! =)

Cheers,
Fozzy

Re:Not without a price drop

[Broken scope]

Wait... she found out her kids a an xbox. Damn, that pretty hard to hide one of those. I mean they stick out like a sore thumb and its hard to move them around..

Re:Only 6 million XBox 360s sold?

[MooseMuffin]

Read that story again. Nintendo believes it will have 6 million sold by the end of their fiscal year on March 31.

Re:How many of these things actuall work?

[SScorpio]

Nintendo's standard warranty is one year. With the Wii if you register it you also be an additional 90 days so you are covered for 15 months.