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Microsoft Sticks to 10M Xbox Projection
Despite the strong gains of the Wii, and the PS3's sellout, Microsoft is sticking to its claim that it will be the first next-gen console to 10 million units. They're still hoping to reach that goal sometime this year. From the article: "Just how feasible that number is remains open. Microsoft's latest financial report at the end of September revealed that the company had moved 6 million Xbox 360s worldwide. And in his latest analysis, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter said NPD data that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months. Pachter further predicted that 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units would be sold in November, and between 1.5 - 2 million units in December, a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas." That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low. The article goes on to point out they still may squeak this out; the Blue Dragon bundle pack for the 360 is releasing in Japan this week. Preorders for the system have been selling out, and demand in that market is high for the Xbox 360 for the first time since launch.
a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas."
:P
That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low.
I dunno, having none all the time is pretty damn consistent
Monstar L
I think most people rabid for a 360 already have one. This season is the season of the Wii and PS3, depending on how many units of each are actually supplied to the market. On the other hand, drop the price a hundred bucks and I might go out and buy one myself. Probably not though - I want a Wii :D
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Guaranteed Gears of War and Rainbow Six 3 have increased console sales since their respective releases. I actually think the PS3 limited quantities helped Microsoft. Many of the people I saw who went to try and buy a Wii/PS3, and couldn't get one, walked away with a Gears of War XBox 360 Bundle instead, because there were plenty.
So wait, they released their console a year before the other two and they're claiming they'll be the first to sell 10M of them? Or am I just reading that wrong?
"In case of emergency, break glass. Scream. Bleed to death."
I was doing the arithmetic a couple of days ago and realized that, if Microsoft and Sony both meet sales projections, Microsoft will have an 8 Million unit lead worldwide. This lead would mean that Sony would have to sell (about) 333,000 more PS3 systems than Microsoft sells XBox 360 systems for the next 2 years to catch up to Microsoft; in order to lead in all regions almost all these sales would have to come from North America and Europe. Until the PS3 matches the sales of the XBox 360 they will have difficulty getting exclusive game development for the system making it very difficult to sell systems.
- Wii: 1,203,618
Of course, they don't state how or where they get their information.I don't reply to Anonymous posts; if you have something to say to me, identify yourself or I won't reply.
...shortages of Cell processors because IBM's server (which utilize the chip) are selling like hotcakes...
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I think that they will make their projections as well. Considering how rare and expensive PS3s are and the Wii is just unavailable, the 360 is the only thing to turn to for your next-gen fix. Add to that some great discounts lately (Amazon, Micro Center's $100 rebate, Overstock, etc.) the Xbox is becoming a bigger bargain. Take me for instance, I wasn't planning to get a 360, but with Micro Center's great rebate offer, I couldn't miss it!
-pentapenguin
10 million consoles first? I thought their major claim was that they'd reach 10 million consoles by the end of the year. The article summary seems to have the importance of each backwards. That said, they've got less than a month left. It will be interesting to see how close they come.
That said, Nintendo also has a ways to go before they reach their 4 million projection. They haven't launched everywhere yet, but still have just shy of 3 million to go before they hit their mark.
In fact, it's hard to say if any of the three will actually make it. Maybe it's because this is the first console generation that I haven't declined into a rabid fanboy, maybe it's because I'm a sucker for mathematical analysis, or maybe it's just because I'm highly excitable, but I'm watching all this with great interest.
I can't wait for when 3 years from now we have a good idea how it all turns out (and also have that many more juicy games, mmm).
Thunderclone: ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE! ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE!
MS will sell 10M 360's before Sony will produce 10M PS3s. The 360 already has some decent games at $29 and $39, as well as big exclusives. My guess is that, at least in the near future, games are going to drive up sales of the 360. However, the Wii will outsell all of them. IMO, the Wii will outsell them without taking much of their marketshare. It's appeal is more for people who wouldn't buy the 360 or PS3, or for people who will by it as well as their high-end console of choice.
Not that my own observations count for much but I've actually noticed a number of people inquiring about or purchasing the Xbox360 in various stores. A few stores have had very prominent displays for the Xbox with the Wii and PS3 off to the side somewhere. Of course it doesn't help that neither of those consoles is currently available.
I did see one woman asking about the Wii and she didn't seem to be pleased at all over the prospect of having to wait in line to get one and this was for a December 6th shipment. She was even willing to pay extra to secure a unit. I think she was determined to get one not because it was the Wii but because she wasn't looking forward to the prospect of having whining kids at Christmas. If it were me I'd just get them socks and use this as a life lesson, "we dont always get what we want".
Anyway, I suspect anyone who might have wanted a PS3 will end up getting the Xbox360. And everyone else will likely get a Wii.
This will be the first holiday shopping season where Xbox 360s will be readily available. There were some core systems on shelves last year, but even those ran short. If the 8M figure above is correct, I think hitting 10M this year may be possible. This holiday season, you will not find a PS3 on the shelf and Wiis will be pretty rare. MS will be the big winner this month simply because there are no other choices and very gift givers are going to wait till Feb-March to give their present.
PS3 and Wii would sell out all the consoles they have produced so far any time of year. They are missing out on another year of holiday sales, I think this has to benefit MS.
If you look at the numbers for the previous generation, you'll quickly realize that 10 million is a piddling number:
i de_sales_figures_5 for sources. Out of the more than 160 million previous gen systems sold, fully 2/3rds were PS2s. The Dreamcast sold 10 million for crying out loud, and look where they ended up. The first console to break the 50 million mark is probably going to be the dominant system, and we're a long way off from that. MS has a head start, but it's still anyone's game.
* Nintendo GameCube: 21.20 Million as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 4.02, The Americas: 12.44, Other: 4.75)
* PlayStation 2: 111.25 Million shipped as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 23.99, USA: 44.86, Europe: 42.40)
* Sega Dreamcast: 10.6 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 2.30, Other: 8.30)
* Xbox: more than 24 Million as of May 10, 2006
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Console_wars#World_w
I just bought a 360 from a local store last Sunday, along with Gears of War and Dead Rising. I took it home, set it atop a rear projection HDTV, and connected the various component, power, and network cables. There was plenty of room in the rear for fan outflow, and nothing obstructing the unit on the top or sides. Then I created an Xbox Live account and it downloaded a firmware update. I figured I was ready to play.
First I stuck in Dead Rising. Played single-user for about thirty minutes or so until the screen froze dead mid-action. I reset the 360. Played again until about twenty minutes later the system froze again. So I thought that perhaps it was a bad game disc, so I put in Gears of War: it didn't last long enough to make it through the introductory cut-scenes. I reset the system again and got to play less than five minutes before the system froze again.
At this point I decided that I must have bought a defective unit. A quick google search of "360 freeze" listed a ridiculous amount of hits. I note that the terms of the MS warranty are 90 days, after which customers must pay a $139.00 repair fee plus shipping. I guess I was lucky enough to have bought a unit DOA rather than dead three months out. I know I could exchange and buy an extended warranty, but I fear a never ending revolving door of hardware failures followed by customer service and shipping hassles. Forget it.
I've decided to return the system and wait out another hardware revision. These things are too damn temperamental and Microsoft clearly is not willing to back up their hardware with a reasonable warranty. The games look great, but what's the point if I can't play them?
*sigh*
Microsoft is their own worst enemy.
If you'd would read the article you'd see they are sticking with the 10 million by 2006 goal.
Only 6 million XBox 360s sold by end of September? Can that be right? Just a few stories up Nintendo claims to have sold 6 million Wiis in the few weeks it has been out, while XBox 360 was released a year ago. I don't know much about console sales and history of releases, but doesn't that mean XBox 360 is a total non-issue?
"We have an A-Bomb...what more do you want, mermaids?" --I.I. Rabi, speaking in defense of Robert Oppenheimer
You're comparing the 10 mil number to the lifetime shipped of the other consoles while the 360 has only been out 1 year. If you look at PS2 which has the most total shipped (note it doesn't say sold), then look at where the data came from, the PS2 only sold 10 mil after its first year.
The Wii is selling like hotcakes and the lines to buy them are getting longer and forming earlier when whiff of a shipment comes in.
Once there's enough to satisfy the people willing to wait in line forever, it will sell extremely well "off the shelf", I'm sure.
I think Microsoft will reap the rewards of having plenty of stock, sure, but it really seems like the Wii will hit 10m units as soon as they can roll that many off the assembly lines. The 360 isn't that fortunate.
No, it means they'll have to sell 8 million systems to catch up to Microsoft.
Geez. Nice "arithmetic"
He left out the magic phrase 'per month.' Sony would have to sell ~330,000 units more than Microsoft *per month* for 24 months, just to catch up.
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considering microsoft is currently isn't selling in any substantial numbers in japan, Sony could make up the 330,000 difference in japan sales alone, even if the US numbers were dead even.
That might work...except that the Wii is going to make it difficult for Sony to sell 8 million PS3s especially when you consider the fact that the Wii is less than half the price of the 60GB PS3, and the PS3's only decent exclusive title is a military FPS - not a genre that's proven popular over there.
Oh sure, once the Japanese-RPGs start rolling out the PS3 in 12-18 months, the PS3 should do fine. But in the meantime, Microsoft and Nintendo aren't just going to sit around and do nothing.
Well, if you consider that the combined sales of the PS2 and PSP do not surpass 333,000 units per month (on average) in Japan it may be more difficult than you think; their combined total so far this year has been 3,069,000 making for an average of 279,000 ( http://www.vgcharts.org/japyearly.php ). Also consider that the PS2 (the most successful console in Japaneese history ) has sold 22 Million Consoles since it was released on March 2000 (meaning that it has been out for 5 years 8 months, or 68 months) only averaged 323,000 units per month.
It will be a very long time before the PS3 outsells the XBox 360 if it ever does...
Uh, yeah becasue no one in America or Europe bought a PS/2. Ever. Son'y can only use the Japanes market for the PS/3. You used the Japan only sales. Actual sales were triple that worldwide, over 1 million/month.
It will not take long for the PS/3 to outsell the xbox360 at that rate!
Note: I don't think 1M ps/3 per month is realistic in the next few years, but they can certainly catch up.
JON
My point was that if the PS3 is going to catch up they will have to be selling more systems in all regions and that they couldn't count on Japan to recover their lead on their own.
Personally (going back to my original point) I think that it will be remarkably difficult for the PS3 to become the worldwide leader because they will have to sell about 333,000 units per month more than the XBox 360; and I think it will be impossible for the PS3 to outsell the XBox 360 in North America/Europe because most of those 333,000 units per month would have to come in these regions and the XBox 360 isn't selling that poorly in either region. The fact is that (as a guess until may) the PS3 can't even produce as many units as the XBox 360 is selling so they are going to continue to lose ground; even when the supply issues are eliminated the XBox 360 will likely get an unanswered price drop that will give it a $200 advantage. The only way any system is going to pass the XBox 360 in sales in North America is if the system has DS lite level sales which I think is impossible for a system that is over $200.