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Fallout From the November Console Wars
All three 'next generation' consoles are out, and we can finally stop using that term. The NPD numbers for last month have been released, and there's plenty of information there to discuss. Analysts have already made some observations, with brandintel specifically pointing out the Xbox 360's 'surprising' role in last month's fight. For some more well-reasoned thought, Dean Takahashi's take is the place to turn: "At this rate, Microsoft isn't going to hit its goal of 10 million units by year end ... Sony's number is consistent with its warnings, but 197,000 is worse than what many expected ... the fair fight is really going to be what happens in the year 2007, when all three console makers should be able to ship as many consoles as consumers want. To me, this looks like consumers are hit with a case of sticker shock. The mass market is paying for cheap PS2s, DS Lites, and GBAs." Despite the Wii's success last month, it should be noted that Nintendo is no longer bragging of 1 Million units in the U.S. by the end of the year. So, essentially, it looks like all three companies will fail to hit their console goals for the year.
I saw Fallout, but no 3. Frankly, I don't care what happens with those consoles, just give me my Fallout 3!
All three 'next generation' consoles are out and we can finally stop using that term.
*Cough* Europe.
Despite the Wii's success last month, it should be noted that Nintendo is no longer bragging of 1 Million units in the U.S. by the end of the year. So, essentially, it looks like all three companies will fail to hit their console goals for the year.
That was for 'The Americas'.
When it comes down to it, I believe I can have the same amount of fun (if not more) with the $130 Nintendo DS than I could with the $300+ current-gen consoles. My fun wouldn't increase five-fold if I bought a PS3, I don't think.
But what if I want to talk about the Infinium Labs Phantom? can I still use the term "next generation?" A friend of mine was really confused about the console sale figures, as was I. And then we both realized we're playing the PS2 I bought just a month ago :-) (for FFXII).
With so many folks being excited for the Wii/PS3 releases, I'd say not only sticker shock but also a determination to have at least something to play is what sold the other consoles. That and black friday making Game Boys cheap-as-free. I wonder just how many sold on that day...
I like basketball!!1!
Okay. Let's assume for a moment that I announce to the press that I'm going to sell 1 million units or Product A by year end. There's much hype and fanfare, then I'm only able to actually produce 500,000 units. The Sales numbers at this point no longer mean anything. You can only have a valid comparison if there is a steady supply of all three models. Come on folks THINK.
-ac
-Parent should have never made slashdot...there nothing to read here move on..
"...Nintendo has the best "Gift" potential... "
Precisely.
If you can read this, I forgot to post anonymously.
I've no plans to buy an Xbox or a PS3 for only reasons of price. $500 as the minimum cost of entry for a system and one game is just nuts. I can't afford it, and I won't bother with it. There's nothing inherent that I will get out of either of those systems over the Xbox and PS2 that I own now, other than the derision of my friends, that I spent a pile of money I could've spent on food or rent on those. I'm sure the games are great, and I wouldn't mind owning one, but they're not worth that, no matter how many fools are willing to overpay for it.
I'd like to get a Wii, and I have a reasonable chance of both affording and getting my hands on one at some point soon. However, right now, I'm actually considering getting a new GBA SP, because I have a lot of games I like for GBA, and an SP is a lot easier to carry around than even the new DS Lite (and a lot easier than my original recipe DS). And a second PS2 to backup my current box, so I can play all the good PS2 games that are now showing up in bargain bins before they become collectors items. Once the price comes down to something resembling reasonable, I'll get a PS3, and maybe even an Xbox 360, but it's got a LONG way to fall before it gets there.
No, not when you think about it. Consider the typical big-box electronics store customer:
"Excuse me, do you have any PS3's?"
"No."
"Nintendo Wii's?"
"No."
"Well, what do you have in stock?"
"The xBox 360."
"We'll take it."
Having product on the shelves covers a multitude of sins.
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Who'd thought that the Wii would suck the life out of the PS3 launch?
The Wii gets all kinds of free press and publicity, if not for Sports, then for idiots destroying their plasma screens and blaming the Wii-mote strap for being too weak.
In the mean time, Microsoft has the best game out in Gears of War for the 360, while the only thing I hear about the PS3 is that it is so hard to program that most games will suck on it for another year.
Oh, and thanks for the root kit, Sony. Karma is a bitch, eh?
...but expensive PS1s! http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&view item=&item=300050305788
Haida Manga
They are still to be referred to as "next generation" until you can actually get one. Just because Nintendo shipped its only Wii to Zonk does not mean that we are suddenly in a new generation.
The PS3 and Wii are vaporware at MSRP. I await proof to the contrary.
P.S. Oh, and when you get proof, pick one up and ship it to me. I'll reimburse via Paypal. Thanks in advance!
How in the hell did I turn into one of those Tickle-Me-Elmo parents???
"If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid." - Epictetus
Do you think those companies want to miss their sales forecasts, and get punished in the stock market for doing so? Of course not. All three companies have run into supply problems because, well, releasing a console worldwide is pretty damn difficult. (Consider that in the past, hardware releases were generally not global either) Should MS, Sony, and Nintendo be chastised for their errors? Certainly.
But this whole "oh, they're just artificially restricting supply to make the illusion of demand" is just nonesense. It's usually spouted off by fanbois who can't imagine that there are actually consumers that want the "other" system.
-- jchenx
They're still selling every single Wii they ship, often within minutes of it leaving the box, but the problem is that Nintendo isn't shipping quite as many as they had originally said they'd like to. They haven't offered any reasons for this.
I was in Best Buy today and noticed the console displays. One guy in his mid-40's playing the PS-3, nobody watching. There was nobody near the Wii. I didn't look at the 360 (forgot about it, actually), but there were about 10 people standing around watching a kid play Guitar hero on a PS-2.
Looks like the last gen is winning the next gen war.
The base X360 is $299. With game, that's $350. Use the Overstock 12% off coupon and it's ~$308 for the base console plus one game. That's a big difference from your $500 claim (even without the coupon). Don't confuse the 360 price with the PS3 price.
That`s not necesary, WE ALL KNOW YOU`RE BUSY BOMBING OTHER CONTRIES!
Actually, if you include their portable systems, Nintendo is already the #1 video game company worldwide with the most market share and highest sales. The press never covers Nintendo that way, though.
"Sufferin' succotash."
You know what is even funny about the parent you answered to? He could have brought up a very good point.
SONY couldn't even manage to produce enough hardware to deliver to Europe. Being a European myself I even can understand it, consoles never were as popular here as in Japan or the US. But after the first delay (remember when the PS3 originally was to ship?) SONY promised to bring the PS3 out in all three markets at the same time, so for us it was actually moved forward, because the original date of shipment was in March 2007. Now they moved it back breaking another promise. They even presold it for December in Summer and now some kids won't get their console for Christmas.
There really must be bad problems to produce this beast. What they now managed is to anger their European customers even more, drove some to buy another box (or can you imagine parents giving their kids a coupon instead of a toy?) and showed just how hard it is for them to produce the hardware.
Does anybody really anticipate it will change fast? I don't and that means they will loose a lot of revenue, because until they can sell in volume (or even start selling here) the price of XBox 360 will have dropped even more making the PS3 look even more expensive or giving SONY even bigger negative cash for each sell.
I don't see those problems for Nintendo, their problem is to get enough good games which only work with the Wiimote. If they don't manage that, they will probably make some money, but will probably stay in third place. I at their position would try to get a license for some Star Wars game, imagine all the people who would love to swing their wiimote as substitute for a laser sword. They could even opt to make a special edition of the controller shaped like a laser sword. Honest, how many people would run out to get it (and the box and the game)?
That said, yes I agree that a lightsaber game (perhaps KOTOR or Jedi Academy kinda thing), would be the best thing Nintendo can do with the Wii. Currently I dont think I can afford to buy a Wii and am happy to wait, but those adverts of Wii-sports & Zelda are really turning the screw right now and 'Star Wiis' would be just the thing to hurt my credit card.
Dont forget that even Nintendo have struggled to meet pre-orders here (at least in the UK).
If this were really happening, what would you think?
While waiting for the PS3 I was sure I'd buy one. It's a no-brainer, like a free Blu-Ray player. And with PS3 pushing Blu-Ray it had to be the winner.
But that has totally changed now. It seems we'll be stuck with 2 formats forever and like most normal people I'm limited by video inputs on my tv.
So I'm not buying a next gen dvd player until they are dual format, my upscaling dvd player works very well, and they are releasing ridiculous movies in Blu-Ray. Ballad of Ricky Bobby? How about something beautiful, that you'd want in a higher quality format like Life Aquatic?
It's clear to me now that a single format next-gen dvd player is a liability to my entertainment center. I'll wait for the dual format players and play a nice small cheap stable PS2 in the meantime.
I have been waiting 2 years for the PS3. I loved the PS2 but was ready to use the potential of my HDTV because I'm a hard core Gran Turismo player. Well the new PS3 has been a total disappointment for me. My TV only does 1080i HD, no 720p. The PS3 doesn't upconvert its 720p games to 1080i, but instead down converts them to 480p! So much for next generation. Solution? $1500 external scaler, $2000 new HDTV, or go to the XBOX 360. Next up, I love rumble in racing games, guess what, SONY dropped the ball on that one too. XBOX 360 wins again. Now, there won't be any Gran Turismo on the XBOX, but wait, Forza 2 is coming out, and judging by the track list and car list, GT isn't the only game in town. http://forums.forzamotorsport.net/forums/permalink /23209/21658/ShowThread.aspx#21658
Then there is all the claims the PS3 is more powerful, so the graphics should be better. We all know game publishers are multi-platform these days, so they are going to develop for the lowest common denominator, so that may be the XBOX 360, Madden looks identical on both, Need for Speed Carbon is virtually the same. At least I won't have to deal with 480p in my games on the PS3.
Then the best part, its $200 cheaper AND it comes with HDTV component cables, unlike the PS3.
The only downsides I can see are you have to play for multiplayer XBOX LIVE, but from what I hear its a better experience.
I agree. I see PS3 struggling into 2007 until they can drop price or provide a compelling differentiator. I certainly don't rule out Sony pulling a hat trick. PS3=Mac is a very interesting point. I am not sure that will happen. The PS3 will either get significant market share or they will be a loser. If they can't get their shipped numbers up to at least 100,000 a week starting Jan then they have no chance of catching the 360. Sony has alot of great titles comming for the PS3 but unless 360 sales stop completely the PS3 is unlikely to catch up in any market except Japan.
Nintendo is taking a mind blowing risk. I certainly could not have concieved of them agreeing to this type of risk when conteplating their next move after the Gamecube. The problem is the Wii is more novel than inovative. Both Sony and Microsoft can easily produce a competing controller which could devalue the Wii's uniqueness. Compounding this is the fact that PS3 and 360 games will on average look spectacularly better because of the graphics power houses built into both of them. The sales for the Wii should be supported by demand in Japan which will keep it going but I don't see them dominating anywhere else. Let's face it everyone likes the cutting edge graphics when selecting games and the screen shots of Twilight princess provided the proof for me to wait for the gamecube version. The Wii will soon be looking like last gen once the novel controller wears off. When you adopt HD TV would you rather have a Wii or a PS3/Xbox360? By the way HD sets are on schedule to hit the consumer sweet spot within the next two years.
The Xbox360 got off to a rough start but it seems to be fairing much better than their competitor's launches. The 360 has struggled with the slow growth of sales which coincides with the slow release of major hits. Though Xbox Live is at the top of the hill it requires a subscription where it's competitors do not. Despite all these weaknesses it's competitors will be confounded by about an 8 million unit lead; hardware performance that should equal the PS3; difficulty in differentiating themselves from the well funded Xbox Live; and the looming possibility of a price drop in 2007.
Also Keep in mind that most of the sales of consoles happen in the last 2/3rds of it's lifespan where the Wii will certainly be viewed as long in the tooth. For me the Wii is the worst choice this gen and only the PS3 and 360 should be considered.
I don't own any next gen yet but am planning to buy an 360 at the first price drop in 2007. I can't imagine the PS3 will see a price drop anytime soon but like you said we may be surprised this spring.
The truth suffers more from convictions than from lies.
At home the game system is for my kids, 4 and 5. I have little to no time to play a console system, other than playing with them a little bit. I got them a used GameCube (w/box) with one official wired controller and official memory card for $54. I've gotten them a used (complete) copy of Super Mario Sunshine for $12, a used (complete) copy of MX Superfly for $8 and a new copy of Donkey Konga w/bongos for $20. I purchased one extra official wired controller for $20 and then another from amazon for $18, both new. I also got a pair of extension cables for $6. I just ordered a copy of Donkey Kong Jungle Beat w/bongos and a free 2nd set of bongos from gamestop for $21 shipped. Those are all new. I actually intend to sell Jungle Beat w/bongos on ebay and believe I'll net about $21 for it, effectively getting me the extra set of bongos for free. Total price for the GC w/3 nintendo-brand controllers (one used, two new), memory card, Super Mario Sunshine (used, complete), MX Superfly (used, complete) and Donkey Konga w/ 2 sets of bongos (all new) was around $140. More than $100 less than a Wii system alone (albeit with Wii sports). Or, if multiplayer Donkey Konga is all it's cracked up to be, I could keep Donkey Kong Jungle beat w/bongos and have a 3rd bongo controller (as well as DKJB) for an extra $21. The used games were purchased on ebay. I tested them and they work fine. Every price noted includes shipping.
For myself I'm getting a (new) DS Lite which I'll be able to play on the train every day. Unlike the Wii, no accessories are necessary, so the $117 I paid for it (shipped) from buy.com is all I have to pay for it other than games. Lots of great games are available for it for little money, including a thriving used market. Indeed, even new games are only $30 to $35, compared to $50 for Wii/360/PS3. Before long new titles drop to $20. I picked up used/complete copies of Meteos and Madden '05 for about $19 total (including shipping). I'm also getting Gunpei DS (new) for $20. So all told it sets us back about $156 for the DS Lite (new) and 3 good games (2 used/complete, one new.)
Total for both the complete GameCube setup and the complete DS setup was about $296. That's less than the price of core-version Xbox 360 alone and less than a Wii with one extra set of controllers (pretty much a necessity.) The Wii is no doubt a ton of fun and better than the GameCube, and unlike the 360 and PS3 seems to offer new/fun gameplay, but I'd rather have a nice system for my kids and a nice portable system for myself that I can actually use, not to mention lots of games to play on both of them. Some day I will get a Wii, in part because it will be able to play the GameCube games we'll have, but there's no hurry. At the earliest it will be next Christmas, when the price will have dropped, there will be a used games market, and new games will better utilize the system.
--- What?
It's pretty disingenuous of you to not mention all that players get for their $50 (only $6/month mind you, cheap bastard). A unified friends list, common UI's for online games, and anti-cheating (one of the biggest advantages) measures. You are correct that Sony will be offering their "online service" for free but can you really call it a service when it doesn't do anything for you? If you and I know each other and we are playing different games, Microsoft's service will allow me to send you an invite or better yet we can start our own chat session across games. What does Sony have? Nothing. No video chat, no voice chat...only text messages but only if you know the person's tag for that particular game because of course every single online game you play with the PS3 is out there by itself. These features may not seem like much but they add a lot to the experience. Is not really fair to make a comparison between a feature rich service like what Live offers and some half-assed implementation that was shipped out the door just so they can say "ME TOO".