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Disk Drives Face Challenge From Chips

WSJdpatton writes "Researchers are reporting significant progress in perfecting a different way to store data in semiconductors, which could replace one widely used type of memory chip and possibly become a credible competitor to disk drives. The researchers, in a paper being delivered at a technical conference in San Francisco, say they used a novel combination of materials to create prototype phase-change components that are more than 500 times as fast as flash chips, while requiring less than half of the electrical power to record data."

39 of 235 comments (clear)

  1. Yeah, but by Keyslapper · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What is the storage density, and will it still be feasible when this finally comes to market in 10 years?

    1. Re:Yeah, but by TubeSteak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Does the storage density really matter? At least initially?

      Even if the first unit they put out is 2x [standard size of whatever] but 500x as fast & uses less battery power... don't you think there's going to be a market for it?

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    2. Re:Yeah, but by Keyslapper · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Possibly. If I had to give up a 360G platter drive to put in a 120G phase drive, I'd probably do it - so long as the cost favored the phase drive.

      I'd probably still keep the platter drive for secondary storage and put the OS and critical apps/servers/whatever on the phase drive though.

      I wouldn't pay twice as much for a drive with half the head room though - even if it is 500X faster. That kind of speed (and especially power consumption) may be a big deal for notebooks, but if density is really a problem, the notebooks would probably have to give up a lot more headroom - relatively speaking. We're finally seeing 200G notebook drives, but keep in mind they're tiny compared to your standard laptop drive. If the new phase drives can store the same or more data in the same space, then yeah, I definitely see the end of the platter drive in mainstream use - once the supply outweighs the demand enough to make it financially realistic. If they can put no more than 30G in a notebook drive, then I think it'll take a couple product generations for that to happen.

    3. Re:Yeah, but by Keyslapper · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, I seriously doubt these things will provide a 500X speed improvement. It'll simply move the bottleneck.

      Even if this tech can be turned into solid state drives in the next 10 years, with 500X the performance of current drive tech, how many of you have never seen your CPU pegged?

      What about the rendering for that new game?

      Just because one component of your system is boosted by a huge factor, doesn't mean you'll see any improvement at all. It's very likely that games available in 10 years will have much higher HW requirements anyway, and the FSB, CPU, and/or GPU will be the bottlenecks, not the HD.

      Unless the cost is a HUGE savings, I don't see too many people giving up their space.

      After all, how much pr0n can you store on a 40G drive?

  2. Good news by fatduck · · Score: 4, Insightful
    FTA:

    The chip industry is racing to find a replacement for flash memory, because the technology is expected to leak electrical current unacceptably when manufacturers shrink chip circuitry beyond certain dimensions. This is the important part. Good to see someone addressing the oft-ignored failures of flash.
    --
    Making you think you're crazy is a billion dollar industry.
    1. Re:Good news by tttonyyy · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Arguably, this is the important part, and one reason why Flash would never have been a good replacement for a HD even if the speed issues were resolved:

      Flash memory is popular because it retains data without a constant electric charge. Such chips aren't usually used in place of disk drives, because of their higher cost and because there are limits on how many times data can be written. Phase-change memory doesn't have that problem (emphasis mine)
      --
      biopowered.co.uk - catalytically cracking triglycerides for home automotive use since 2008. Just say no to big oil!
    2. Re:Good news by el_womble · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Do you really believe that harddisks don't fail?

      The difference is that flash fails with writes (not reads) and HDD fails with reads AND writes (bad sectors?). Early flash failed after only 10,000 writes per sector, newer flash is in the millions. Flash spreads the writes around, so to reduce the chance of any one sector failing and can do this because flash is genuinely RAM (unlike HDD where location affects transfer speed). Both HDD and SSD employ firmware stratergies that hide sector failure from the OS, only flash can do that without any real cost to performance.

      The end result is that if either are working after 3 or 4 years your doing well, and should really be looking for a replacement unit.

      --
      Scared of flying, pointy things snce 1979!
    3. Re:Good news by IDontAgreeWithYou · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "oft-ignored" - I do not think that means what you thnk it means. Every time someone mentions using flash in place of a hard drive, nearly 80% (totally made up number) of the comments are about the rewrite limits of flash memory. I mean there are at least 10 comments below yours that mention it already.

      --
      Finding other idiots on /. that agree with your opinion doesn't make it any less stupid.
    4. Re:Good news by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Do you really believe that harddisks don't fail?


      No, but HDDs are amongst the most reliable storage media. A good, well-built SCSI drive can last for much, much longer than 3-4 years. I've personally seen hard drives as old 10 years functioning without a hitch. RAID can very much mitigate the risks associated with keeping drives around that long, too.

    5. Re:Good news by darkmeridian · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I always thought that using a hybrid system with a flash memory and a hard drive would be great. Every time the boot configuration changes, write a new "hibernation file" to the flash memory, and then boot from that. Furthermore, the code calls for each application as it starts up could be written to the flash memory. Indeed, the most-accessed binaries can be copied onto the flash memory, as space permits. Such a system would decrease boot times and quicken application start times while reducing the risk of burning out the flash memory over the average life of the computer/drive.

      --
      A NYC lawyer blogs. http://www.chuangblog.com/
    6. Re:Good news by BeBoxer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The end result is that if either are working after 3 or 4 years your doing well, and should really be looking for a replacement unit.

      Wow! I never suspected. You should probably let Seagate know. I'm sure they will want to rethink their 5 year warranty.

      Perhaps you buy really cut rate drives, but in my experience hard drives almost always outlast their usefulness. I've disposed of more drives due to a combination of obsolete busses and pathetic capacity than outright failures. If you are really seeing high failure rates after only three years, you should be looking for some external factor because that isn't normal.

    7. Re:Good news by peragrin · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Store your swap file on a flash drive and you can ruin it in a couple of months.

      Flash is good for some things like portable media, but where constant activity is found you should use something more durable.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    8. Re:Good news by TranscendentalAnarch · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Because that's the most complicated part of the drive.

    9. Re:Good news by Splab · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm supporting about 100 users, and we hardly ever see any drives fail. Over the last year I've had 2 dead drives (both on the users personal machines), and today we had a user with a failing drive (laptop - not dead yet, but it's going to fail within one or two months). So yeah, the guy is obviously buying junk (or very unlucky).

  3. No more harddrives? by CronicBurn · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Interesting read, however I don't see these things holding a useful amount of data by 2010. Even if they can get 4G capacity on these chips it still wont replace hard drives that hold terabytes of data.

    Although it could make really cool applications for OS installs. Could you imagine your favorite OS installed on something as fast or faster then today's RAM? I don't want to think about the cost of 4G of this stuff though. *shiver*

    --
    if I were able to see further, it was because I stood on the shoulders of Giants -Newton
    1. Re:No more harddrives? by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I don't want to think about the cost of 4G of this stuff though. *shiver*

      [shrug] A decade ago, I'd never even seen a machine with 4GB RAM, and five years ago, I'd only ever seen that much RAM in monstrously expensive servers. Now I have a machine with that much RAM on my desk. (And yes, I use it; most of my work is pretty heavy number-crunching.) So if this stuff turns out to be viable, it'll get there.

      Actually, a better comparison just occurred to me: about fifteen years ago, I paid an extra thousand bucks to get a laptop with a 60MB hard drive (vs. the standard 20MB or whatever it was). A few months ago, I bought a 256MB thumb drive for about twenty-five bucks. That just blew me away when I thought about it.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    2. Re:No more harddrives? by Ngarrang · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I don't think the hard drive will disappear completely, but as the costs come down, the companies cannot make money producing the smaller capacity drives. We will see 1Tb hard drives readily available someday, sure thing. But different people have different needs. Hard drives are beginning to augment backup strategies because they have become so cheap and high in capacity.

      A solid state drive has a higher G-shock tolerance, is quieter and requires less power than a hard drive. These features are why the technology is attractive to the people who need it. And not everyone needs a hard drive that is 400gb in size. Network appliances may only need a small 1gb boot drive, and these kind of devices will need this new phase-change memory, or whatever will work for the task beyond flash.

      It would be cool to have something like this that is your main memory AND your storage space in one. We could call it Run-In-Place. We could then have a instant-on computers. Just imagine Windows XP or Linux booting up in under 3 seconds!

      --
      Bearded Dragon
  4. Technology description by in2mind · · Score: 3, Informative
  5. Ita about time by El+Lobo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Today the bottleneck of the whole system lies in the hard drive. This is the only mechanical part (fans excluded) of a computer. It's about time to find a solution for large storage that doesn't depends on an arm swinging and moving back and forward through a fragmented file system....

    --
    It's time to realise that Abble's products are the biggest abomination these days. Just say NO to the dumb iAbble way!!
    1. Re:Ita about time by KingNaught · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So you don't have a dvd/cd rom in your computer?

  6. The real challage is price. by jellomizer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Hard Disk Drives now are about $0.50 a Gigabyte. Flash is now about $25.00 a Gigabyte. 3 1/2" Floppy disks about $250.00 per Gigabyte. So it is natural for the Flash Memory cards to replace the floppies as they did. Better speed and better cost/Gigabyte. But right now Hard Drive technology is really cheap. If this new design can match prices/gigabyte of a hard drive then the Disk Drives will need a real challenge. Otherwise This new technology may only be a threat to Flash, or used with drives in hybrid mode for faster disk access. But not until then.

    Price is a major driving force in memory.

    CPU Registers are the fastest but most expensive (very small amount is used)
    Cache is the next fastest and the second most expensive. (4 Megs or so)

    Then comes normal RAM Memory Still slower then Cache and cheaper normally systems now have about a Gig or 2 of that.

    If price wasn't a case Computers wouldn't have much RAM but all Cache, or huge amount of registers. But in real life price is the final decision.

    --
    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    1. Re:The real challage is price. by stevesliva · · Score: 3, Interesting
      If price wasn't a case Computers wouldn't have much RAM but all Cache, or huge amount of registers. But in real life price is the final decision
      Actually in systems where price is no object, performance is usually paramount. If you have astounding amounts of registers or cache, your performance per instruction or memory operation may be slower. Given the fact that we can manufacture dual-core dies with ease, I imagine we could easily fit a bazillion more registers or double the L1 cache of a single core, but there is a performance trade-off there.
      --
      Who do you get to be an expert to tell you something's not obvious? The least insightful person you can find? -J Roberts
    2. Re:The real challage is price. by WuphonsReach · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hard Disk Drives now are about $0.50 a Gigabyte.

      You're a bit on the high side there... SATA/PATA drives are down around $0.28-$0.32 per gigabyte and have been for a while. The sweet spot seems to be the 250GB drives for $70, with the 200GB, 300GB, 400GB sizes at around $0.32/GB.

      (Which hasn't changed a whole lot in the past few months. But Seagate's 7200.10 series is one of the cheaper $/GB drives on the market even though it's brand new tech.)

      --
      Wolde you bothe eate your cake, and have your cake?
  7. Re:No more harddrives? YES! by denis-The-menace · · Score: 3, Funny

    I can see as this memory becomes faster, cheaper and more reliable to replace system memory, too. I can even see the stuff become so cheap that backing all the info will become cost prohibitive, something like how tape backup systems cost way more today than a 2nd hard drive, but an order of magnatude higher.

    The irony is that this would explain why in the future (à-la-Star-Trek), backups of the computer's memory doesn't exist and cause improbable storylines for us system admins.

    --
    Obama's legacy: (N)othing (S)ecure (A)nywhere and (T)error (S)imulation (A)dministration
  8. Re:Cost is what matters by kansas1051 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Wikipedia(as always) has a good article on the technology. It looks like the write time is currently about 5ns: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-change_memory What is really interesting is that the technology is generally temperature based.

  9. On our way to the future by CopaceticOpus · · Score: 3, Funny

    Can't we just skip ahead to the transparent crystals that glow in various colors and store almost limitless data? We all know that's where this is heading.

    Maybe we need to perfect holographic 3D displays first?

  10. Re:The iPod Fanboys..... by shaneh0 · · Score: 2, Funny

    "The chips won't work in brown devices."

    dirty f'in racist chips.

  11. Re:In other news... by Easy2RememberNick · · Score: 2, Funny

    With or without milk?

  12. Bah by feijai · · Score: 2, Funny

    Still won't be able to compete with the sheer density of colored symbols on A4 paper.

  13. Re:Cost is what matters by Overzeetop · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Marketing departments usually find the _slowest_ competitor to base their stats on. I wouldn't be suprised if the speed was relative to early-generation flash in the hundreds of kB/s range. Not that 100MB/s would be considered slow, but it might not be the GB/s you would expect looking at today's fast flash drives.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  14. Moore's Law and disks by billstewart · · Score: 2, Interesting
    For the most part, disk capacities have been increasing faster than the Moore's Law double-in-18-months for the last few years. I stopped caring about disk capacity somewhere around the time 6GB drives got replaced by 20GB drives which got replaced by 120GB drives over about 2-3 years, each at under $100/drive. (Then I got BitTorrent and started downloading lossless-compression music, so I temporarily had to pay attention again :-)


    My first Vax, 22 years ago, had 1GB of disk, in the form of four washing-machine-sized drives which used removable 250MB disk packs. The drives cost about $120K total, and the packs were about $1000 each. There isn't really an exact comparison to that combination; you could either look at DVD-RW ($40 for the drive, $0.50 for the disks, so 8-12000x the price/capacity), or amortize the drive across some number of packs to compare to fixed disks (e.g. 10 packs per drive would be $160K for 10GB, though I think we only bought about 3 packs per drive over before that machine was obsolete), or you could make some unbalanced comparison like $20 for a CF-to-USB adapter and $20/GB for Compact Flash cards, which would be a mere 200:1 on the removable media but 6000:1 for the "drive".

    --

    Bill Stewart
    New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
    1. Re:Moore's Law and disks by DarkSarin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And I have an astrophysics friend who just told me that the university we attend (grad students) will be putting up a new satellite that can generate 30TBs of data in one night (Full Sky Scan!). Wow.

      --
      "We don't know what we are doing, but we are doing it very carefully,..." Wherry, R.J. Personnel Psychology (1995)
  15. Formats by symbolset · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Ina remarkable case of technology amnesia, the same idiots that standardized on FAT for flash media for devices are now touting the amazing formatting capacity of FAT32 - An astonishing 32GB! As if in four years that's going to be a lot for flash media you don't have to handle with tweezers.

    So run out, children, and buy your SD 2.0 standard devices while they're not yet obsolete. That way you can buy your camera again and again for no good reason.

    --
    Help stamp out iliturcy.
    1. Re:Formats by KozmoStevnNaut · · Score: 2, Informative

      I have a 200GB disk formatted as FAT32...

      It is only Microsoft's own cut-rate implementation of a disk manager that insists on making FAT32 volumes a maximum of 32GB in size, and I suspect it is solely because they want people to use NTFS instead.

      --
      Eat the rich.
    2. Re:Formats by dextromulous · · Score: 3, Informative

      You may only be able to format FAT32 up to 32GB using the default Windows utilities, but the maximum volume size for FAT32 is 8TiB. However, you are still limited to a maximum 4GB file size and 268,435,437 files. I'm sure you would run into efficiency problems with a gigantic FAT32 drive, but that doesn't mean that 32GB is the limit.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: those who divide people into two types and those who don't.
  16. ten states per 20 nanometer cell by Darth+Cider · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Page 35 of their downloadable pdf shows that each cell can hold multiple bits. Each cell can be set to one of ten states by multiple pulses of current, so comparisons to binary storage don't work. The manufacturing process is not complex, basic CMOS in about 20 stages, but the part of the cell that stores data is only about 20 nanometers wide. Replacement of hard drives is a very trivial application. IBM and Intel are planning to incorporate this tech inside ICs to reduce latency of fetching data. The big news is more highly integrated systems on chip. It doesn't look pie-in-the-sky, somewhere-way-down-the-road to me.

  17. Dark Star by camperdave · · Score: 2, Funny

    I'd guess that the data would be highly compressable, though: Dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, star, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, star, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, star, dark, dark, dark...

    --
    When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  18. NOT BUNK! by itlurksbeneath · · Score: 2, Informative

    While the actual flash technology might be capable of that kind of speed, the entire stack isn't. Compare the MB/s throughput of several hard drives here with the throughput of several USB flash drives here (both benchmarks done with SiSoft's Sandra).

    Bottom line: The USB drives are topping out at an average of 8 MB/s, the hard drives are in the 60 MB/s range. That alone puts hard drives an average of 7.5 times faster.

    Flash drives have great single block seek times because they don't have to move a head, but most benchmarks show that their ability to move large quantities of data quickly sucks.

    --
    Have you ever considered piracy? You'd make a wonderful Dread Pirate Roberts.
  19. Re:Oh, you'd still have your porn. by Neil+Hodges · · Score: 2

    Such a thing would probably confuse the customer base, since many would be scared of such a thing. For those of us who really want these things, Windows may be less-than-ideal.

    Seriously, though; almost everyone I know who doesn't care about speed nor capacity has a single disk, and would rather not be bothered about it.