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Hardcore Gamers on the Decline?

Posted by Zonk on from the coring-out-the-hardcore dept.

Ars Technica's Opposable Thumbs blog takes a look at the numbers for last year, and makes an interesting observation: hardcore gamers are probably not the future. Specifically, last year's videogame sales numbers show a huge trend in the adoption of mass-market licensed games. We've also previously discussed the extreme popularity of casual games. Despite Gears of War selling around the same amount as Cars (both around 2 million units), the cost in time and money to create Gears was substantially greater than the cost to create the Pixar-licensed title. The result? "As growth continues, we're bound to see some substantial changes. As it stands, hardcore gamers are still a pivotal purchasing force in the games market: most of the top ten titles were what I would consider "hardcore" games. However, the trend away from the hardcore and towards the casual is becoming increasingly more predominant. We've talked quite a bit lately about the growing demand and response for casual games, and when coupled with the shocking sales of licensed products, I'm left wondering whether or not the number of hardcore gamers is dwindling."

31 of 143 comments (clear)

  1. maybe... by 14CharUsername · · Score: 4, Insightful

    the number of casual gamers is rising faster than the number of hardcore gamers? Maybe there will be more licensed crap but still be the same amount of quality original games made?

    1. Re:maybe... by rev_sanchez · · Score: 5, Funny

      Hardcore gamers also tend not to mate and thus not reproduce.

      --
      If you didn't come to party don't bother knocking on my door. Prince '1999'
    2. Re:maybe... by 14CharUsername · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If there is money there someone will step up. Yeah a making a game base off a movie will sell 2M copies, but how much did you have to pay for the license? And look at how much the Warcraft trademark is worth now, and that came from a strategy game which is a niche market.

      Game companies would be stupid not to make niche games. Just like how hollywood makes artsy films. Sometimes they lose money, but sometimes you can create an entire francise out of it.

    3. Re:maybe... by Swanktastic · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah a making a game base off a movie will sell 2M copies, but how much did you have to pay for the license?

      This is a nice point. Let's say I'm an investor and have a choice between two investments:
      1) A game that will cost $2 million in development, $8 million in license fees, and $0 million in marketing and will sell X copies.
      2) A game that will cost $5 million in development, $0 million in license fees, and $5 million in marketing and will sell X copies.

      Of course, we don't know how many copies will sell, but bear with me for a moment. Market theory dicates that the total cost of the game should yield a certain number of game sales. If we knew #1 would sell more games, then the licenser should theoretically charge more money.

      At the end of the day, I'd rather invest in #2. Here's why- at the end of the product life, I've now got a brand/franchise that I can sequel and make a nice bit of money on. Essentially, I've gotten profits and built up an asset. Halo/Warcraft are great examples of the value of building a franchise.

      With choice #1, I've gotten some profits, but next time, I'll have to again pay those licensing fees. Essentially, I'm back to square one.

      If you want to take things a step further, I would bet the return on investment for a licensed game is less than that of an original game because the licensed game is more a "sure bet." Just like in the stock market, low risk investments typically yield lower returns.

    4. Re:maybe... by iocat · · Score: 2, Informative
      Hardcore gamers also tend to buy way more software than casual gamers, making their absolute numbers less important. It's the 80-20 rule: 20% of consumers are responsible for 80% of the software purchases. Also, don't count on the fact that Cars was cheaper to make that Gears of War; especially when you figure the license cost into the development.

      Obviously licensed games get a huge marketing boost, and they are much better than they were years ago (see Kim Possible: What's the Switch for an example of a steller licensed game) as publishers have realized that sales are tied to the license *and* the game quality, but anyone predicting the death of hardcore gamers (or games) is a fool.

      Here's an helpful analogy: There are a lot more general fiction readers than sci-fi readers. Clearly, someday soon there will be no science fiction books.

      --

      Dude, I think I can see my house from here.

  2. Answer by darkhitman · · Score: 5, Funny

    "I'm left wondering whether or not the number of hardcore gamers is dwindling."

    As it happens, no. They're just all playing WoW.

    --
    Tell me something...it's still "We, the people"... right?
    1. Re:Answer by Conception · · Score: 4, Informative

      The parent may have meant this as a joke, but I think it's partially true. WoW pulls millions of gamers out of the purchasing pool. I've seen many a post of people saying that they used to buy games, but why spend 50-100 bucks a month on games, when they can just play Wow.

    2. Re:Answer by darkhitman · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Unfortunately, it was both meant to be funny and a joke. I used to buy, say, a game or two a month. Then WoW and GW, and more recently Vanguard, entered the picture. Cut to a year and a half later: the last game I bought that wasn't an MMO was Gears of War; haven't played it in a month, probably. But I don't play games 12 hours a day, only a couple -- and those couple are easily filled by Vanguard.

      --
      Tell me something...it's still "We, the people"... right?
    3. Re:Answer by Durrill · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I used to buy a game on every pay cheque, which included WoW back on its launch weekend in 2004. Since then i only receive games from friends and family on special occaisions such as my birthday or christmas, i don't buy them myself anymore. I'm still playing WoW, i'm not into the expansion, and the fact that i'm playing with 10 real life friends kinda sets the fact that i won't be buying pc/console games very often anymore. Funny or not, the 'Answer' post is indeed fact.

      --
      If i wanted to hear bullshit, i'd go to church.
    4. Re:Answer by Andy+Dodd · · Score: 3, Insightful

      s/WoW/other MMOG/ and you've taken huge chunks out of the pool.

      If not for DAoC and EVE, I would've been tempted to buy the following:

      Half-Life 2
      Battlefield 1942/BF2
      Joint Operations
      A few others - Oblivion looks pretty cool.

      Other than MMOGs, the only games I've bought in the past 4-5 years were iD Software products, and that was a mixture of desire for the product itself (they make good games) and desire to support a company that actively supported Linux gaming. (Yes, a MAJOR factor in purchasing Quake 4 and Doom 3 was that they had native Linux ports.)

      --
      retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?
  3. cash cow by the+dark+hero · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Despite Gears of War selling around the same amount as Cars (both around 2 million units), the cost in time and money to create Gears was substantially greater than the cost to create the Pixar-licensed title.

    But is Cars really that great of a game? It sold 2 million because it was a popular movie and the game's sole purpose was to rake in more cash. In a year is Cars going to continue to sell as many units as Gears? Moreover, in many years are people going to care about Cars or will they remember how awesome Gears was and how they can't wait for part 2 to release?

    --
    You constantly struggle for self improvement - and it shows.

    Hooray for bad Engrish on fortune cookies

    1. Re:cash cow by chill · · Score: 3, Insightful

      But is Cars really that great of a game? It sold 2 million because it was a popular movie and the game's sole purpose was to rake in more cash.

      From a business/investment perspective, that is all that matters.

      Moreover, in many years are people going to care about Cars or will they remember how awesome Gears was and how they can't wait for part 2 to release?

      That depends directly on the success of Cars 2, the movie. If it is a big winner, the game most likely will be as well.

      In a year is Cars going to continue to sell as many units as Gears?

      In a year, the investors will have moved on to the next mass market title. While the developers may care about milking every last sale, the investors know that the vast bulk of the return was made within the first 6-months or so. Their business plan doesn't take into account residual sales over years to come.

      --
      Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.
    2. Re:cash cow by Kelbear · · Score: 2, Informative

      Small quibble,
      It's probably true that after the investing is done, they can just let the returns roll in while they're looking at new investments.

      But the residual sales are likely taken in account even though they may be less significant than the initial surge. They would just be estimated, weighted for the time value( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value ), and then added into the overall expected return of the investment.

  4. Hello, my name is Brad and I was a hardcore gamer by kiyoshilionz · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Yes, I used to spend countless hours tweaking and overclocking my computer in order to get those extra FPS in CS Source and HL2. Now i just really don't care - I'm still 18, the "peak" age that everybody wants to market to, but I just lack the time or desire to pour hours on end into video games. School, life, and girls are more important to me now, and this videogaming thing has been slipping away.

    I used to play 4 hours of video games a day back when I was a "hardcore gamer", it's just not worth it anymore. Has anybody else feel their killer instinct slip away?

  5. Duh, by kabocox · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Reduced costs from the Pixar end. I would think that even if Pixar didn't write the game, whatever properly licensed publisher couuld try to obtain the computer models straight from Pixar for use in the game. This means that one guy copies/pastes/scalee from Pixar into the game companies format. If a game company did its own IP from ground up, of course they'd have more work to do.

    Actually, when I think of casual games I think of the games that my wife plays: JewelQuest, solitare, and mine sweeper. I wouldn't class a "Pixar Cars" game as a casual game. It may be a kid game, but it that still doesn't mean that it can't be difficult for the casual adult gamer. (Heck, I played one of my kids Sponge Bob's game to try to get them past a level to the next save stop and I was surprised that it was hard. It had limitless lives, but the task (racing course) was difficult for even me, which startled me.) I like that "hard-core" gamers will always be around. They will be those that instead of buying 5 games for family/friends during Christams or combined through out the year, will buy 5 games every few weeks. They will always have publishers that target them. They'll always rail against the mainstream for purchasing games like JewelQuest, Dr. Mario, or Tetris as being cheap to develop and raking in far more money than they should. I wonder how many "hard core" gamers have disappeared into WOW or similiar games.

  6. No.. by Nemetroid · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ... I'm alive and healthy!
    Compare this to the music market - even though it is tremendously bigger than the games', they are common in some senses.
    Although most of the music being sold is mass produced crap, there still is good music to be found. I believe the same will be true for games.

  7. Re:Hello, my name is Brad and I was a hardcore gam by Eudial · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Yes, I used to spend countless hours tweaking and overclocking my computer in order to get those extra FPS in CS Source and HL2. Now i just really don't care - I'm still 18, the "peak" age that everybody wants to market to, but I just lack the time or desire to pour hours on end into video games. School, life, and girls are more important to me now, and this videogaming thing has been slipping away.

    I used to play 4 hours of video games a day back when I was a "hardcore gamer", it's just not worth it anymore. Has anybody else feel their killer instinct slip away?


    Can't say I disagree. I'm 20. However, for me the most deterring factor for me is the decline in PC game quality. There used to be great titles like Thief and Deus Ex. Then all of the sudden everything had to be lobotomized so that it could be played on consoles as well as PCs. Wroooong move. Atleast I don't find a lobotomized point-and-drool interface that a chimpanzee could use very appealing.
    --
    GAAH! MY PRINTER IS ON FIRE!!! PUT IT OUT! PUT IT OUT!
  8. Hardcore vs Softcore players by CrazyJim1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I'm sorry but the distinction between a hardcore and a softcore player is blurred. I'm sick of people saying that things a hardcore player likes that a softcore player doesn't like. If you make a quality game, people will play it. The problem lays in the fact that people don't make quality games and they lay their excuse here.

    For example: The article says Gears of War sold as many units as Cars even though Gears of War cost more to make. They then go on to say it is because of hardcore vs softcore players. When in fact couldn't it be that Gears of War doesn't do anything new in gaming. Its just another FPS, and doesn't even have a ladder like Halo 2. If they actually did something with all the money they spent in production of Gears of War, it could be the next killer FPS. You only need 2 things for the next killer FPS: 1) Ranked Online Play 2) Balanced Weapons . You could even make a MMOFPS and it'd instantly be better than PlanetSide which lets you level to max in a day basically. But no they chose to do a very expensive FPS.

    Hopefully gaming companies will get these terms Hardcore and Casual players out of their head, so they don't give up totally and not try anymore.

    --
    God spoke to me.
    1. Re:Hardcore vs Softcore players by gregtron · · Score: 2, Informative

      Two glaring mistakes in your post: 1) There is a huge difference between hardcore and softcore players: Time. I work 60 hours a week, I have friends, I have a dog to walk, and I have a girlfriend who needs to feel pretty. I /want/ to be hardcore, but I can't because I don't have Time (or T Points, as I like to call it). 2) GoW is a TPS, not FPS.

    2. Re:Hardcore vs Softcore players by Kelbear · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Indeed, though I believe the term "Hardcore gamer" is a concern for consumers to bat around in their debates, not the companies. Since it's their livelihood, I'm sure they would be viewing the market with better detail that just hardcore/not-hardcore(softcore? o.O )

      And Gears of War is quite casual. Very short, but fun singleplayer, and quick multiplayer games set on small compact maps with immediate action and fast map turnover. Very little time and effort needs to be invested to enjoy this game. Casual and Hardcore have veered off quite a bit in how they're used, now meaning non-violent vs. violent, which is a different concern.

      Namely, violent vs. non-violent is a parental concern. Gamers don't care. Gamers don't care much for violence in videogames, they see points and progress towards a goal. Violence offers a few minutes of giggles when just starting out, but this is soon forgotten when the gamer goes on to actually play the game.

      You didn't blow a human beings brains out all over the wall, you just scored a point. We're not grieving for virtual families, we're competing in a game. Playing the game brings the vast majority of the pleasure, not the virtual bloodshed.

      The violence is just an easily understood setting for competitive play, because a post-apocalyptic game of lasertag or nerf is far far harder to suspend your imagination for than a war. Thus, the violent or non-violent aspect of casual vs. hardcore ought to be dropped in favor of depth and duration of play arguments.

  9. Don't underestimate Cars by lukeduff · · Score: 3, Funny

    My clan just started playing Cars in league play. It's pretty intense.

  10. Re:I don't see the equivalency. by SirSlud · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The author of the article is seeing a trend.

    Happy-Feet, the Ps2 game had over 1,000,000 million pre-orders, before it was released; the game rated below 5.0 on both IGN and gamespot, and didn't cost that much to make (I'm not at liberty to discuss numbers.)

    Do the math. Sure, there is cross-over, but there is overwhelming evidence that if you're in the market for money alone, you should be chasing WB licenses, not hardcore gamers.

    --
    "Old man yells at systemd"
  11. Define your terms by sesshomaru · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Well, here's my problem, what is a hardcore gamer?

    I've heard the difference between hardcore gamer and softcore gamer described thusly, "Hardcore gamers buy a lot of video games during the life of a console, whereas non-hardcore gamers buy only a few popular titles."

    I've also heard this, "Hardcore gamers are the ones who line up for consoles and pre-order games, wheras non-hardcore will wait until they are cheap and readily available."

    But wait, I've also heard, "Hardcore gamers like traditional games (RTS, RPG, FPS, etc.) while non-hardcore like non-traditional (Brain Training, Nintendogs, Wii Sports)."

    Well, which one is it? Is it all three? How does this impact Cars versus Gears?

    --
    "MIT betrayed all of its basic principles."
    1. Re:Define your terms by Aurisor · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hard core gaming is mostly subjective. It just means that one is more willing than the average person to go the extra mile in any significant facet of gaming. Possible ways to attain hard core gamer status:

      - camping out for new releases
      - beating very hard or frustrating games
      - having played games seriously for a very long time
      - investing obscene amount of time in mmos
      - winning competitions

      To answer your questions specifically:

      Quantities of games purchased doesn't matter unless they are good games and you play them all. Dropping a lot of money on games you won't play does not make you a hard core gamer. Genres that are written off as being easy or fluffy or aimed at kids will definitely detract from your hard core status.

      Although I think 80% of the people out there would agree with most of what I've said, you have to realize that a "hard core" gamer is an entirely nebulous, subjective term. It's not scientific terminology, and there's no one arbiter of what it means. However, if you're trying to get the terms down, this is a good place to start.

  12. Wrong in so many ways by matthewcharles2006 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    First of all, Gears sold THREE million by Jan. 19th. Second, Gears was an early, exclusive game on a new system with a user install base between 7-10 million, whereas Cars came out on every platform under the sun, probably including cell phones. Third, an increase in 'softcore' gamers does not mean a decline in 'hardcore' gamers. Considering the 360's install base, Gears is a phenomenal success.

  13. I wonder ... by brokeninside · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Has anyone plotted the number of hardcore gamers against the unemployment rate? It seems to me that I would expect to see a decrease in the number of hardcore gamers as a society moves towards full employment rates.

  14. Re:Hardcore gamers need Hardcore games! by DarkJC · · Score: 2, Informative

    Honestly having played with the Wiimote, no, it's still inferior to the mouse. I have a feeling most will realize this when playing MP3. If you saw people playing around with the MP3 Demo kiosks earlier last year, you'll note that the system was hard to adapt to, and there wasn't really a good way to turn around fast that a mouse provides. Although the Wiimote gives us a cool new way to play FPS, I don't think it's the new #1 interface.

  15. Re:I don't see the equivalency. by twistedsymphony · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think the point the GP was trying to make (and I agree with) is that contrary to what the article is claiming "hardcore" shouldn't be based on the types of games being purchased. IMO "hardcore" describes the amount of time someone sets aside out of the rest of their life to game.

    If you only ever play Happy Feet, Cars, Open Season, and countless other cheap poorly rated franchised games but you play them every waking moment, I'd say that you're a hardcore gamer.

    A casual gamer doesn't pre-order games, I'm sorry, casual implies that they were walking by the store and saw a cardboard cut out that drew them in, or played the Guitar Hero kiosk and decided it might be fun for their next party. The kind of person that maybe plays a game among friends every other week or so. The kind of person who would pre-order a game, particularly something that is far below AAA status, the kind of person who would wait in line for hours to play WiiSports and Zelda, these are not casual gamers, these are hardcore gamers.

    Lets change the context... would you consider someone any less an alcoholic if all they drank was cheap mass produced beer? Uncultured maybe, but certainly not any less "hardcore". By the same measure if someone drank every night after work would you consider them a "casual" drinker? Would you consider someone who waited outside the liquor store before they opened a "casual" drinker?

    I find this particularly ironic considering I just wrote an article citing reasons why the market is becoming MORE Hardcore.

    --
    Collector's Edition
  16. Nothing New by servognome · · Score: 2, Informative

    Look at the top 10 sales charts. Things haven't changed, casual games make up most of the list. Typically you'll have a hot casual game/genre like Deer Hunter (*sigh*), pokemon (on the console side) or the Sims dominate, while a few great hardcore games round out the list.

    1998 Top 10 PC Games
    (6 "casual", 3 "Hardcore", 1 not sure (I'm thinking Titanic was supposed to be a Myst clone but never tried it)
    1. Starcraft (Blizzard)
    2. Deer Hunter (WizardWorks)
    3. Deer Hunter 2 (WizardWorks)
    4. Myst (Broderbund)
    5. Cabela's Big Game Hunter (Head Games)
    6. Titanic: Adventure Out of Time (Knowledge Adventure)
    7. Lego Island (Mindscape)
    8. Frogger (Hasbro)
    9. Riven (Red Orb)
    10. Unreal (GT Interactive)

    Top 10 Games 2002
    (7 "casual", 3 "hardcore")
    1 / The Sims: Unleashed / Electronic Arts / $26
    2 / Age of Mythology / Microsoft / $40
    3 / Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets / Electronic Arts / $28
    4 / The Sims Deluxe / Electronic Arts / $42
    5 / RollerCoaster Tycoon 2 / Infogrames / $29
    6 / Backyard Hockey / Infogrames / $19
    7 / Zoo Tycoon: Marine Mania / Microsoft / $31
    8 / Zoo Tycoon / Microsoft / $28
    9 / The Sims: Vacation / Electronic Arts / $29
    10 / EverQuest: The Planes of Power / Sony Online / $29

    Top 10 PC 2007
    (5 "Casual", 4 "hardcore", 1 both (WoW has both kinds of players)
    1. World of Warcraft--Vivendi Games
    2. The Sims 2--Electronic Arts
    3. The Sims 2: Open For Business Expansion Pack--Electronic Arts
    4. Star Wars: Empire At War--LucasArts
    5. The Sims 2: Pets Expansion Pack--Electronic Arts
    6. Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion--Take-Two Interactive
    7. Age of Empires III--Microsoft
    8. The Sims 2: Family Fun Stuff Expansion Pack--Electronic Arts
    9. Civilization IV--Take-Two Interactive
    10. The Sims 2: Nightlife Expansion Pack--Electronic Arts

    --
    D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
  17. Re:Hello, my name is Brad and I was a hardcore gam by PhoenixOne · · Score: 3, Funny

    There used to be great titles like Zork and X-Com. Then all the sudden everything had to be lobotomized so that people without imagination could play them. ;)

    Welcome to getting older (and at 20 no less), where the past is always better than the present. If you don't watch yourself, you'll be telling kids "Get off my lawn" before you turn 30. ;)

    --
    Spell cheek you've failed me four the last thyme!
  18. Re:Hello, my name is Brad and I was a hardcore gam by grumbel · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ### This "decline in PC game quality" is nothing but a selection bias.

    I don't think so. A few years ago PC games got ported to consoles, these days console games get ported to PC. Which often means crappy controls, bad menus and other issues, since what was designed for a 640x480 TV simply doesn't look very good at 1280x1024 and controls that work well with a gamepad, just don't match nicely with keyboard and mouse. The PC gaming market seems to be left with a few FPS, MMORPG and RTS games, while those games might be good, there has been quite a lack of good games of other genres, the flightsims are dead, adventure games are dead, turn-based strategy is mostly dead, space-games mostly dead and there simply are *far* to much WWII based games out there, what happened to the cool sci-fi or fantasy settings?

    Now I haven't really played much at all on the PC in the last years, so maybe I just miss something, but on the other side I have yet to see a new game on the PC that would be interesting enough for me to actually upgrade my system and bring it back into a game-ready state.