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Evidence for Console Price Cuts
Next Generation offers up an exhaustive analysis of previous console generation price cuts, and concludes that we are definitely due for some cheaper next-gen action sometime in the near future. The piece includes charts of lowering system prices, as well as a breakdown of how many consoles sold at various price tiers. "Certainly we can use history as a guide, but there are limits to its use for prognostication. The price drops this generation may happen in ways entirely different from what has been suggested above. Maybe the $300 console this generation will be what the $200 console was last generation. Maybe Microsoft will forge ahead with its current price structure until after Halo 3 has come and gone. Maybe Sony will bless the PlayStation 3 with a 33% price drop sometime this year. And maybe Nintendo will give the Wii a small price drop by removing Wii Sports from the package. Those could happen, but don't bet on it."
Only the PS3 feels overpriced to me. The 400 dollar price point of a 360 premium or 250 for the Wii seem very reasonable and fair to me...I had no buyers remorse spending that much on either system.
I simply cannot justify, however, spending 600 on a PS3. I don't care if it is a Blu-Ray player, I still cannot justify it.
If the PS3 were 400, I would likely buy one. If there were more than two games I was highly anticipating (God of War 3 and Lair) I would be willing to pay 450.
But 600? No fucking way.
Living With a Nerd
They're going through historic trends, and guessing what the current outcome is going to be. That is NOT evidence - that is conjecture.
Ryan Fenton
Past performance does not necessarily predict future results.
Spell cheek you've failed me four the last thyme!
Sometime in the near future something is going to happen. It could be good for you. But don't bet on it.
Considering one of the main "pick up and play" games for the Wii is Wii Sports itself, I see it as highly unlikely that they'll de-bundle that anytime soon. Eventually it'll happen, but not soon IMO.
What's the news here? It's not saying that there is any indication that there will be any price cuts other than, "there was price cuts with the last generation, so there will be with this one". Personally, I think the PS3 has the most to lose. It's not selling well, and it's already being sold less than cost, so I don't think a price cut would Sony that much. However, if the XBox 360 and the Wii take a price cut, then the PS3 will be left as the really expensive one that nobody wants to buy.
Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
Of course we will see price cuts, everyone but Nintendo are in urgent need of a larger sales base because the Wii is raping them six ways from Sunday. These predictions are ridiclous and on a long enough time line cannot fail to be correct.
Why was an article even wrote and why is it on Slashdot?
I like muppets.
This is ridiculous.
Maybe something will happen. Maybe it won't. I can make random conjectures too.
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There isn't a good reason for Nintendo to drop Wii Sports from the North American Wii package. Wii Sports is a great hook for selling the system.
At this point, the cost of removing Wii Sports would probably only save a a few dollars or so at most (Disc pressing, manual, and packing). Cutting the system price by $50 wouldn't require pulling Wii Sports to make it feasible. I suppose you could argue that Nintendo could make part of that $50 back by selling Wii Sports as a stand alone game. However, Nintendo would then risk not having a great ratio to new Wii sales and losing the part of the Wii system that makes the whole bundle so easy to pickup with family and friends who have never touched a game system.
Simply put, cutting Wii Sports does not fit with the "Blue Ocean" strategy.
I simply cannot justify, however, spending 600 on a PS3. I don't care if it is a Blu-Ray player, I still cannot justify it.
The valid point of view contrary to this is that if you have an HD setup, and are therefore probably considering getting some kind of next-gen player at some point, then the PS3 which is affordable as next-gen players go and is a game console actually looks like a decent deal. This is the standard argument against the PS3 being overpriced (the "you get a lot for the money" argument), and it is a valid viewpoint if it applies to you, but it misses the bigger point:
Basically nobody who is balking at the price of the PS3 gives a shit about the "you get a lot for the money" argument. If you have enough to blow on an HD home theatre then you can easily afford the PS3 and sure maybe it's a good deal. "Good deal" and "affordable" aren't the same, and the fact is the PS3 is not affordable to many people. Just like a 70ft yacht for $100k might be a great deal, you will still find sales of such a yacht limited to the wealthy. Duh. So why people think "you get a free bluray player!" will make people leary of spending $600 on an entertainment device more likely to buy a PS3, I don't know.
The enemies of Democracy are
Why should Nintendo drop Wii Sports from the package? It's the biggest, best piece of advertisement they have. It's Wii Tennis, or Wii Bowling, that sells grandmothers and fathers on buying their own Wii after having played a round or two at their kids place.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
While the Wii seems reasonable to most people who can afford to spend on a system, The major issue for the 360 or PS3 is that you have to spend more immediately on games to have any fun. The Wii leverages the variety of Wii sports so that people can be fascinated by the control system for a while before buying add-ons.
Instead of a price cut, perhaps MS will bundle the systems with more games and maybe a wireless controller or something. The Wii can just give away some free money to buy online games with. The PS3 needs to bundle their console with... a Wii
Cheers!
Atheist: Buddhist in a Prius
Ya know I'd be happy if i could find a Wii to buy at the current price.
I saw one at Wal-mart 2 months ago.. I haven't seen one since.
If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur. --Red Adair
that a PS3 price cut is coming. I just bought one :\
I cannot imagine Nintendo dropping the price on the Wii while supply / demand are so out of balance. If you're a manufacturer, and you can sell every single unit of a product you make, and you still have an order backlog, that's not a lot of motivation to drop price. On the other hand, if your product is sitting on the shelf and being outsold five to one by the competition in your home market *cough* Sony *cough*, you might consider dropping your price.
[Insert pithy quote here]
The Wii is sold out pretty much as soon as it enters stores. A price INCREASE might may sense, but a price decrease doesn't make sense until you start having demand problems. I don't think they'll increase the price due to public outrage, but the demand is there.
A price cut on the PS3 would bring an immediate price cut on the 360. Comparing a $500 PS3 to a $300 360, the $300 console is going to sell much better. Especially with a better game library right now. Sony should hope and pray that price cuts don't happen for any console until Sony has significantly reduced the manufacturing price.
Microsoft should have cut the price of the 360 in May. The Wii is very quickly gaining ground on the 360 and will catch up soon. The lead over the PS3 may disappear when Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 come out. Microsoft should drop the 360 core (sell them with a hard drive for $249 until there are no more) and focus on a $299 360 premium. Anyone who wants to pay more can buy a $399 Elite. 360 sales are not very good and there is a lot of stock at stores. Pretty much everyone who wanted to buy one at $399 already has one.
Microsoft has non-traditional sources of income for the 360. Live brings in $50 a year per subscriber. Profit from Live is probably at least 30%. Microsoft makes a 30% profit from downloads. If someone is a Live subscriber and buys $50 worth of downloads a year (movies, television shows, Arcade, expansions, downloadable content), that would be $30 a year. Over 4 years, that's $120 profit. With publishers paying Microsoft $8 for every game sold, 20 games over 4 years adds up to $160. Both of those together would be about $280. If Microsoft's cost of manufacturing a 360 is about $300 http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20 061120132150.html/ (the article is dated November 20, 2006 and I'm assuming that it's lower now) and their cost of shipping, assembling and store profit is about $100, their total cost per console would be $400. Once the 65nm chips are out, it will only cut the cost further. You could make an argument for any price between $199 and $299. A $299 price would get them many more sales and would still be a profitable position in the long run. I don't think a price less than $299 is in the planning, but I think it could be justified.
If Microsoft wanted to screw over Sony, they would buy Rockstar and Square Enix. Buying Square Enix is probably the only way they could break into Japan. Make Grand Theft Auto and Final Fantasy exclusive to the 360. Release it for Windows Vista 6 months later. It would piss the Japanese off, but they would grit their teeth while buying a 360 to get some FF action. Losing Grand Theft Auto would kill the PS3 in North America and Europe, it would probably be enough to take it down worldwide. The Wii will continue to be profitable for Nintendo.
You don't have a nice HD setup if you think an up converted DVD looks as nice as anything on Blu-ray and HD-DVD. The OTA 1080i/720p signals from any of your local TV stations look light years better, then even a nicely up converted DVD. That is assuming you've actually seen real HD content.
Several of the big broadcast networks only have a couple shows actually filmed and broadcast in HD, a lot of their content appears to be standard def stuff scaled just like your DVDs. Oddly enough where I live the PBS affiliate has the best HD programming OTA.
If you truly want to enjoy your HD setup you really should reevaluate your decision to avoid the new formats. I'd at least pick one once the war has settled down because you're missing a lot by sticking with DVDs. It's not like you need to replace all your movies with HD stuff right away, just pick up new stuff that you like in the better format. Then again once you have several of these you might realize how terrible DVDs actually look.
I have both a Wii and a 360 and really dont understand why people are oblivious to the consoles being different enough to sell to two different markets. The Wii is doing great right now and will continue to do so, many people I know that have picked up a Wii would not have owned a console otherwise. My parents have a Wii and havent owned a game console since the Atari 2600 when I was a kid. One of the attorneys I work with gave them out as christmas presents. Its "the" hot gadget right now, the 360 could be $100 cheaper than the Wii and right now the Wii would outsell it for the novelty factor alone. The Wii is fun to play but is primarily a social gaming device. Hardcore gamers (the same ones who picked up the xbox and ps2 early in the last generation) are still going to be more attracted to the 360 and PS3. Currently the 360 is outselling its direct competition the PS3 so why bother with a price cut? Cutting the price now might bump sales a bit but really wont make a dent in Wii sales. The sales bump will come from those same xobx 360 and ps2 owners, the late adopters from last generation that tend to value a year or two of entertainment at about $100. They will buy it whenever the price reaches their breaking point whether thats now or next year so why rush it, cutting prices certainly wont increase profits since those that wait tend to also buy the budget titles as well.