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The Desktop -- Time to Start Saying Goodbye?
Lucas123 writes "Robert Scheier at Computerworld writes that while worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year, portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28% and will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S. this quarter. Notebooks will dominate the worldwide PC marketplace by 2010. 'One researcher predicts it will be five to seven years before only the "die-hard" desktop users are left.'"
when you pry it from my fat, cheetos encrusted dead fingers.
1. Cost 2. Upgrades
So does that mean that this time it's PC gaming that will die out and not console gaming?
I don't think its really a black and white comparison. Obviously desktops have advantages and laptops have advantages. You dont want to lug around a 22 inch screen on your laptop but for your desktop, you want that. You're not going to get the latest and greatest hardware on a laptop, but you can on a desktop. Laptops are portable and good enough for most people, but a bit pricier than desktops.
It's a different tool for a different job kind of thing, the summary makes it seem simpler than that.
I guess we can bury the desktop along with the mainframes which have "disappeared".
Ain't going to happen. Laptops have charged into the fray because they've finally become price and performance competitive. They're not desktops, and they're not the same things.
Ten years ago I owned 2 desktops, and 1 laptop. Today I own 4 laptops and 3 desktops. They're all heavily used, but for home use doing heavy duty, big screen, heads down coding and computer work, it's always going to be the desktop that makes the most sense.
The percentages may change as laptops finally "emerge", but desktops, IMO, will stay.
If and when a laptop can get a nice big 24" screen or larger, can have ultra fast, high capacity hard drives with kick-ass 3D graphics and components I can upgrade...then I'll get one. I don't see that happening in the next 5 to 7 years.
"Leo Fender was in a 'state of grace' when he designed the Stratocaster." -- Paul Reed Smith
The big problem I see with this will be if lack of demand means that it will become more difficult to "build your own" to get a box with the specs you really want.
But even in my own experience, I find myself looking more at the ads for the latest laptop, rather than reading the specs on the motherboards.
I do have fond memories of browsing computer shopper (back when it was large format and over 1 inch thick).
McFly777
- - -
"What do people mean when they say the computer went down on them?" -Marilyn Pittman
People predicted that offices would go paperless, and that cars would fly too. But the reality is, if you don't need the portability, why spend the extra money to get a laptop? Plus desktops will always have greater power, easier upgrades, standard hardware, and more perhiperals.
Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
the year of Linux on the...laptop?
Everything I need to know about copyrights I learned from Slashdot.
What about university (and other similar instituitions) provided computers with a plethora of licensed software on them... Especially for CAD and graphics, the desktop wins hands down in cost, and probably will continue to have such an advantage.
:)
Though it would be neat to see a system of renting out laptops with that sort of software. The logistics of such an approach aren't something I'd want to manage, personally though.
Another thought is the extent to which external monitors (and keyboards) will be used. Dell does have that rather new "laptop" model with the 19" screen that can act like a separate monitor. The keyboard detaches and uses bluetooth.
Even though I'm a Linux guy, the closest I've seen to a possible laptop that could replace my desktop and be feasible is the latest Macbook Pro. DX10 graphics card, plenty of RAM, solid speed, LED LCD, good battery life, Superdrive, and big hard drive.
Once I see and read the reviews of the next OS X it may be time to make that jump to all laptop.
http://teasphere.wordpress.com - A little spot of tea
What percentage of PC users EVER upgrade their hardware? I prefer a desktop for the ability to upgrade parts, and (currently) for the price. But the majority of people? Never gonna worry about it.
I'd say desktops are likely to be more limited to high-end users in the future. (As laptop prices continue to fall.)
We may see the desktop computer disappear into the monitor, though.
Hmmm....we may see that one day.
"Leo Fender was in a 'state of grace' when he designed the Stratocaster." -- Paul Reed Smith
1. Cost. Laptops cost almost twice what comparable desktop systems cost. This gap could close when flat displays become cheaper and production numbers increase considerably.
2. Upgrades. Upgrading a laptop means currently that you have to throw out the old one and buy a new one. This, too, could be seen as a minor problem, with the Joe Average User buying a new computer every few years rather than doing midlife upgrades and laptops that come across as "barebones" with interchangeable parts.
3. Vendor lock-in. Even if upgrading is possible, you often need very specific Dell/IBM/Toshiba-only parts that fit only in this brand of laptop, often also only in this series (anyone who ever wanted to up their ram in the IBM notebooks knows what I'm talking about). This is unlikely to change, since companies DO want you to be locked in. I highly doubt they'll agree to a standard.
4. Heat. The most advanced and fastest CPUs and even more GPUs produce an incredible amount of waste heat that a notebook cannot sensibly get rid of. Usually you do get a "notebook" version of those chips, but they are usually either slower or a generation behind, when more advanced production processes allow the same speed with less heat.
5. Displays. Notebooks are supposed to be small, displays can't be large enough. Unless we find a way to "fold" displays, people who want more than a 17" display will not enjoy the notebook experience. Either that or they'll grumble when they get to haul around a notebook that can house a 20" display...
5. Space. Notebooks only have so much space, unless you increase their size to inane proportions. This is most noticable for HDDs, which are hard if not impossible to upgrade, and even current notebooks hardly come with more than 200GB of storage space, something that is allright for travels, but I doubt it would make them popular with people who have a need for a lot of storage.
6. Defects. When a part of the notebook fails, you have to send it in for repairs. No user serviceable parts inside (with most models at least). When the graphics card in the desktop fails, rip it out and replace it.
The list goes on. While notebook use will certainly increase over the next years (points 1 and 2 can pretty easily be taken care of, and will), I do not see them as the all powerful replacement of desktops. They might have their place in work environments, especially when mobility is an issue, but in the private sector (and especially amongst hardcore gamers, video/audio junkies and graphics artists) the desktop will most likely survive.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
It'd be a bitch to try and install two or three PCI tuner cards in one for a mythtv setup, and pretty few laptops come with digital audio out, much less HDMI ports.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
These same "researchers" predicted that computers would make paper disappear from the office. Today offices deal with more paper than ever because electronic documents just don't do the job.
Laptops are popular with businesses because they can do double duty: plug into a docking station with a fixed monitor and keyboard for desktop use, but allow employees to take it home to do work after hours or on weekends. At the same time, though, those laptops are no end of hassle when dealing with the corporate network. Desktops, being nailed down to just one network, can just be configured and you're set. The laptops have to be able to deal with being on insecure outside networks, and the extra software to handle that is just a nightmare when they're attached to the corporate network. Not to mention that almost all of them currently are infected with several viruses and they're spreading them to the company net. The desktops aren't nearly as much of a problem in this regard. Business likes the cost savings, but a lot of people where I work are opting to keep their desktop boxes and use their own laptops instead of having the company give them a laptop (and take away their nice reliable desktop machine).
Then of course there's gaming. Very few laptops compare well to a desktop box when it comes to gaming performance. Gaming hardware eats too much power and throws off too much heat, and gamers don't like sacrificing performance.
My sense is that desktop PC shipments are dropping not because of any lack of demand for desktops. It's more that most people are satisfied with the box they've got now and are just upgrading components for a couple hundred dollars rather than buying a whole new system, and that people are going to white-box builders locally rather than buying from the big-name vendors. I know I can find higher-spec systems locally for better prices than I can find at Dell or the like. I mean, I built one for my niece earlier this year with hardware the equal of Dell's best gaming box but a cost around that of their mid-range non-gaming boxes. I've had to decline 4 requests to build systems since then, and pointed all 4 to local shops. I'm not surprised to see the big names seeing a drop-off in shipments.
I call bullshit.
Receptionists, shipping clerks, call center reps, cashiers, nurses, and most day-to-day office workers don't need the portability and form factor of a laptop. Furthermore, it's a lot more likely that a company will let a new hire or someone who has dealing with the public at the system use a desktop that's cumbersome to unhook and carry out the door than a machine designed for that purpose. People might not be any more likely to steal a laptop than a desktop in principle, but making it easier for, say, the guys who visit the Public Aid office to get in and out with them isn't necessarily a good idea.
Desktops are a lot cheaper to design and build for the budget role, and are more easily customizable for all the myriad business machines out there that require computer control. USB and Firewire are great, but they're still not as flexible as PCI and PCI Express. Extra drive bays make it much easier for IT to add storage or unusual hardware (ZIP, HD-DVD, some new memory card reader) that would have to be a separately inventoried if it was an external add-on for a laptop.
A desktop can easily be expanded into a cheap, low-end server. Most laptops don't meet this criterion very well. Memory limits asre often lower, the memory is more expensive, and you only get one hard drive in 99.8% of models out there. Lots of small businesses or working groups in larger ones tend to turn an old PC into an impromptu server for a while until the budget allows a proper server.
There might be some split into laptops for the masses, workstations for high-end work, and servers for rack-mount applications, but you can be sure lots of businesses will the just buy workstation or server machines as desktops. As long as the business world demands the mini tower, it'll be available for you to buy from Dell and HP. The enthusiast sites will probably still offer them long after that.
Besides, when has "lower growth" ever meant "decline in number"? Last I checked, growth meant more units sold, period. Less of an increase than last year, maybe, but still an increase. What if one day the market saturates and everyone only buys replacement systems? Will all the suppliers of hardware close and not bother?
Just as anecdotal, but...
I only know a couple of people who have more than one computer. Among those people (of which I'm one) there's usually one desktop, or possibly two.
Among the vast majority of my friends/acquaintances, each person only owns one computer. In every case where someone only owns one computer, it's a laptop. Many of those people had desktops five years ago. None of them does anymore.
My conclusion is that laptops are replacing desktops for those people (i.e. the vast majority) who don't need something only a desktop can do. The desktop will increasingly be relegated to the office (unless laptop volume gets so much higher that the extra cost of a laptop goes away), hobbyists, and specialized uses.
Well, I'd wait untill desktop shipments start to reduce until I call it dead.
It's not quite sane to call dead something that is growing 12% a year.
Rethinking email
A lot of people are talking about how laptops are slower/more expensive/have smaller screens, and those are all true, but those aren't -- IMHO -- the main problems with laptops.
When I went off to college I got a laptop -- before that I had always used a desktop. It was pretty nice being able carry my computer (life) around with me. Then I slipped while going down some stairs, my laptop took a spill, and the hard drive went into a death spiral. I was able to get the data off it (and I had an older backup) but it made me realize that it probably wasn't a great idea to have such a vulnerable device for my main box. Now I have a desktop with a RAID sitting in my room. It's not going to get dropped or stolen. If I need something on it, I can ssh in. I still find my laptop very useful, but not as my main computer.
(Or square meter, in some countries :)
In the 35 years that I have been a computer professional, I've observed that the form factors change very little. The computing power and storage available per square foot has gone up radically, and some new form factors have emerged -- lap top, palm top -- but the fact remains that, by and large, the "square foot" categories remain the same.
1975: Pheasant Under Glass computer rooms.
2007: Lights out server room.
1975: PDP-11/35
2007: Single rack departmental server stack.
1975: 24x80 "glass teletype" time shared VAX.
2007: desktop
1975: first "lugables" on the drawing board.
2007: lap top.
1975: HP-55 calculator
2007: Palm (or whatever they call themselves today).
The desktop will not die until the desk dies. It may change form, as the mainframe has been largely replaced by racked up servers, but the *footprint* still exists.
There are many cool and exciting new uses for laptops/PDAs/tablets, but desktops have many uses as well. For example, most computer users have a desk at home or work where they get a lot of work done: there's no need to have that computer be mobile, and desktops are CHEAPER and MORE UPGRADABLE and MORE RELIABLE.
Upgradibility in particular is a huge issue for power users and hardware enthusiasts:
By contrast, with my laptop, it takes maybe 5 minutes to replace the hard drive, and I have to mess with a bunch of fiddly little screws. To replace the RAM or optical drive I have to remove several panels and it probably takes 10-15 minutes. Replacing a MiniPCI wifi card is a huge pain and probably takes at least half an hour. And everything else simply can't be upgraded.
My bicyles
"The reason laptops are starting to outsell desktops is simply that the cost premium has all but disappeared."
If I were to sell my MacBook Pro to get the latest model (gaining me an upgrade from an ATI X1600 128mb to an nVidia 8600M 256mb, a newer chipset, a 2.4Ghz CPU from a 2.16Ghz CPU, and an LED backlit display), it would cost more than a recent desktop upgrade I did. This desktop upgrade was roughly $800, and got me a 2.4Ghz AMD X2 CPU (vs. a 2.0Ghz X2), a 256mb nVidia 8600GTS (vs a 128mb 6800), 4gb of RAM (vs 2gb of RAM), and a much better motherboard (an Asus M2N-Sli deluxe).
The thing is, I got to keep all the old parts of my computer as well (allowing me to trickle them down to other machines) -- unlike the laptop situation, where I have to roll along the money by selling the old one to pay the majority of the difference on the new one.
My entire desktop setup, with 24" monitor, 5.1 speakers, and a local storage of 1tb of HD space cost $500 less than my MacBook Pro (which has a much smaller monitor, crappier video card, 1/5th the HD space, slower CPU, less RAM, etc). MacBook Pros, given their specs, are within $200 of similarly equipped Dell and other name-brand laptops. No-name laptops tend to have the kind of parts I wouldn't buy (Via Unichrome chipsets, for example), so aren't in consideration.
The funny thing is that a 17 or 20" laptop has an even larger price premium -- I could easily have a 30" monitor with my setup for the same price as one of those laptops.
Name for me 1 laptop that I could buy for less than $800 CAD that would let me play Oblivion at 1920x1200 45fps with all the settings turned up. My desktop rig can do that.
This price premium you speak of seems alive and well to me!
--
Internet Explorer (n): Another bug -- that is, a feature that can't be turned off -- in Windows.
...the video cards. Sure you can get a docking station to provide all of the other fun stuff that a desktop has (like (additional) serial ports, more USB ports, an extra LAN jack, etc...), however laptops still haven't overcome the limitation of un-upgradable video cards. Sure you can get expensive laptops with high-end cards, but when all of the games move to the newest version of DirectX, if you want to play them and keep the FPS up, you have to get a new laptop. Until the industry moves to swappable graphics cards, laptops won't be the be-all-end-all replacement for the desktop computer.