The Desktop -- Time to Start Saying Goodbye?

Lucas123 writes "Robert Scheier at Computerworld writes that while worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year, portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28% and will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S. this quarter. Notebooks will dominate the worldwide PC marketplace by 2010. 'One researcher predicts it will be five to seven years before only the "die-hard" desktop users are left.'"

Comments

You can have my desktop

[Anonymous Coward]

when you pry it from my fat, cheetos encrusted dead fingers.

Re:You can have my desktop

[fyngyrz]

The prediction overlooks far too many inconveniences that technology hasn't yet resolved.

The need to regularly plug in the laptop. Poor battery lifetime and recharge cycle performance (but see ultracapacitors for the impending doom of the battery industry.) The need to plug in various I/O devices (hard drives, scanners, various others for various needs.) The wearing out of laptop clamshell hinges. The low quality of laptop keyboards as compared to the awesome stand-alone keyboards available. The need for mice and drawing pads. The limited screen size of a laptop (you can of course make an ultra-large screen laptop, but then it doesn't fit in your lap very well.) The room inside a desktop for various hardware add-ons, such as PCI bus hardware, or highly accelerated graphics engines. Room for multiple drives.

A few of these things - such as connectivity, which will probably go entirely wireless - will resolve themselves as technology advances. Most will not. So as an IMHO, but one with a lot of data behind it, I call nonsense on the entire proposition.

Re:You can have my desktop

[Paracelcus]

Rah!
I can barely see the print on most laptop screens (even the biggest ones) and I've looked!
My laptop is 11 years old and has been used rarely if at all.
I have three desktops, all built by me from parts obtained from Fry's, Ebay and pulls.

I don't like laptops (grimace)!
I HATE laptops (cough)
Piss on laptops!
Stomp on laptops!
Chew on laptops?
It's almost time for my afernoon pills.

Re:You can have my desktop

[Captain Splendid]

Not only that, but the advent of the smart phone, coupled with things like paper-thin displays, roll-up (or even holographic) keyboards means that we're going to see the demise of the laptop soon IMO.

Re:You can have my desktop

[timster]

I'm sure you can think of some better reasons, but most of the ones you've given aren't any good. Desktops have to be plugged in all the time anyway, so it's not as if limited laptop battery life can be held as a point for desktops. I/O devices plug in to laptops just as well as they do to desktops, now that we use standard connectors for peripherals (USB/Firewire). I've never seen a clamshell hinge wear out, though I'm sure it's possible. You can plug a desktop keyboard into a laptop when it's at your desk, and lots of people do. Same with monitors or whatever else.

The reason laptops are starting to outsell desktops is simply that the cost premium has all but disappeared. So people tend to prefer the mobility (even if they don't always use it) over the ability to add internal drives or peripherals (which they certainly never use).

Re:You can have my desktop

[Haeleth]

It doesn't seem that you've named any problems that weren't solved by docking stations a decade ago.

Well, sure, a laptop in a docking station is basically a desktop, except that you have to pay far more for the same thing, making the whole exercise seem rather pointless.

And the increased speed and reach of modern networking means that the benefit of being able to undock your computer and take it home with you is decreasing. I mean, why spend umpteen dollars on a laptop plus two docking stations and peripherals, and go through all the constant hassle of docking and undocking, and also face a significantly increased risk of a single theft completely depriving you of a computer and all your data -- when you could spend less, get two desktops and a smartphone, and keep your files synchronised over the internet?

Re:You can have my desktop

[packeteer]

I think the laptop will no longer be the most common mobile device but it will still have a place. People that actually travel or commute with their laptops will surely want to replace them with a more mobile smart phone/PC. My brother got an iPhone on day 1 and he says he already doesn't bring his laptop home from work with him anymore, he can just carry his iPhone.

On the other hand my friend is not a computer power user; she only uses her laptop on the desk or in her lap on the couch. I think a lot of laptops being sold are merely desktop replacements. There is no reason for someone who only wants to do email/web/schoolwork to buy a full on desktop computer. I would bet money that most laptops being sold today are going to people who are not transporting them very far.

While my brother uses an iPhone and my friend uses a laptop I don't think I will give up my desktop anytime soon. Although i own a nice laptop i never use it, it sits in my closet. My desktop has a 21" CRT, 3 hard drives, and a real mouse and kayboard with a huge mouse pad (for gaming). I have played several video games competitively (you might have heard of the WoW guild was in) and a laptop just wouldn't have worked. Now that I don't play any video games anymore i still like my desktop. The huge screen is good for browsing and the mouse is much more accurate than a touch pad.

The article mentioned that die hard desktop users will always be on the desktop. That is of course correct but I think there are many benefits to doing normal stuff on a desktop too.

Re:You can have my desktop

[MBGMorden]

I don't know some industries, but the heavy equipment field for manufacturing is stick in the 9-pin serial world, or worse, a proprietary serial card that uses a "special" DB-25-like cable. I remember installing a psychological-testing device about 2 years ago that not only was 9-pin serial, but was also still an *MS-DOS* application.

These days I work in government, and we install a lot of specialty/niche software (have to go through RFP and bidding process, etc), and it AMAZES me how crappy and outdated this stuff is. Microsoft Office? OpenOffice? Any Adobe product? All are polished beyond belief compared to this stuff, and these programs we pay anywhere from $100k to $1m for. The latest one (a $300k purchase) is literally a 10-15 year old application written in Visual Basic. Nothing about it is intuitive. You search through these mile long menus to find this vaguely named option that you just have to know is there, only to bring up yet another unintuitive screen with a lot of non-descriptive labels. And then these things require INSANE workarounds to install on a system, and often crash just as often as first draft open source project. Of course if I were to find an open source program that did this same thing it wouldn't get a second look, because it's "unsupported", and the pay-product is "enterprise grade software" (which means it's expensive, but doesn't reflect in any way how well it works). It's my complete belief that once you get past the $5-10k price range, the price and quality of a software product are inversely proportional.

Re:You can have my desktop

[tirefire]

There is no reason for someone who only wants to do email/web/schoolwork to buy a full on desktop computer. I would bet money that most laptops being sold today are going to people who are not transporting them very far.

You have just made an excellent case for why these people should not buy laptops. Desktops are way cheaper to purchase and own than laptops. You never have to replace batteries (short of a CMOS), and if you want to upgrade them a few years later, it's easy and cheap. Laptops, with their soldered-in processors and graphics chips, turn into paperweights within a few years. Laptops sacrifice everything for mobility. If all you want is email/web/schoolwork, a $300 beige box is the ticket for you.

Re:You can have my desktop

[Paradox]

I worked for Lockheed Martin for 2 years, and I had to fight with all my spare time to keep them from doing that to the app I worked on.

How does it happen?

1. Every "senior" decision maker is a relic, or is emulating a relic to get ahead.
2. Specs can be laid out YEARS in advance, turning a good application prototype into a slurry of good ideas melded to meet forgotten and often uninformed requirements.
3. Any interface difficulty can be addressed through enough training! But the truth is planned training is often the first thing cut from budgets.
4. Aesthetics and interface design are considered "premium" functionality, because most dev hauses have poor testing strategies (which are separate from QA). Just getting the product stable can be a major challenge.

Or so my experience suggests...

2 words for the desktop

[Romwell]

1. Cost 2. Upgrades

Re:2 words for the desktop

[644bd346996]

1. Cost In TFA, they point out that fewer and fewer consumers mind the $100-$200 premium for a laptop with comparable specs.

2. Upgrades People who upgrade critical components like motherboards, cpus, and graphics cards are already very much in the "die-hard" category. Normal consumers never upgrade those things except by replacing the machine. For almost everything else, USB and Firewire suffice. (The exception being, of course, RAM. But most laptops produced in the past 10 years have had upgradeable RAM).

It seems to me that the only people who will stay firmly in the "desktop" category are people who by definition don't need the mobility. They are the people running computer labs, servers, and office computing systems. I expect even the high-end professional users to migrate to laptops except when laptops don't offer enough raw performance at any cost.

The interesting thing to note is that, from a technological perspective, desktop vs. laptop doesn't matter anyways. So much of the desktop market it migrating to iMac-like all-in-ones and other small enclosures that they will pretty much all be using laptop chips, too.

Ah, I see.

[Anonymous Coward]

So does that mean that this time it's PC gaming that will die out and not console gaming?

Different kind of monster

[chipotlehero]

I don't think its really a black and white comparison. Obviously desktops have advantages and laptops have advantages. You dont want to lug around a 22 inch screen on your laptop but for your desktop, you want that. You're not going to get the latest and greatest hardware on a laptop, but you can on a desktop. Laptops are portable and good enough for most people, but a bit pricier than desktops.

It's a different tool for a different job kind of thing, the summary makes it seem simpler than that.

okay, goodbye desktop.

[yagu]

I guess we can bury the desktop along with the mainframes which have "disappeared".

Ain't going to happen. Laptops have charged into the fray because they've finally become price and performance competitive. They're not desktops, and they're not the same things.

Ten years ago I owned 2 desktops, and 1 laptop. Today I own 4 laptops and 3 desktops. They're all heavily used, but for home use doing heavy duty, big screen, heads down coding and computer work, it's always going to be the desktop that makes the most sense.

The percentages may change as laptops finally "emerge", but desktops, IMO, will stay.

Re:okay, goodbye desktop.

[Paulrothrock]

I do coding on a laptop, but I hook it up to an external 23" screen. The bonus is that I can use my laptop's screen to show my email and IMs so I'm switching between windows less frequently. And if I have to do coding from some other location, I've got my workstation with me.

The real advantage that desktops have, for me, is that they're upgradeable and have a higher top end. You can throw a couple more drives in them and use sophisticated cooling techniques to get really fast processors, so you're right that they'll always have their place.

But for the vast majority of people a laptop is a great solution. Some friends of mine bought a laptop and a wireless router and are thrilled to be able to actually sit in their living room or bedroom and be on their computer, rather than going upstairs and sitting alone in a room without a TV. As usual, this is the kind of technology decision that's not cut and dried. But the trend of laptops over desktops is there.

Guess I'll be one of them "die hard" desktop users

[sgant]

If and when a laptop can get a nice big 24" screen or larger, can have ultra fast, high capacity hard drives with kick-ass 3D graphics and components I can upgrade...then I'll get one. I don't see that happening in the next 5 to 7 years.

Inevitable, but sad

[McFly777]

The big problem I see with this will be if lack of demand means that it will become more difficult to "build your own" to get a box with the specs you really want.

But even in my own experience, I find myself looking more at the ads for the latest laptop, rather than reading the specs on the motherboards.

I do have fond memories of browsing computer shopper (back when it was large format and over 1 inch thick).

Desktops still have their place

[danbert8]

People predicted that offices would go paperless, and that cars would fly too. But the reality is, if you don't need the portability, why spend the extra money to get a laptop? Plus desktops will always have greater power, easier upgrades, standard hardware, and more perhiperals.

So, 2010 would be

[presidentbeef]

the year of Linux on the...laptop?

Computer Labs (and ilk)?

[Gertlex]

What about university (and other similar instituitions) provided computers with a plethora of licensed software on them... Especially for CAD and graphics, the desktop wins hands down in cost, and probably will continue to have such an advantage.

Though it would be neat to see a system of renting out laptops with that sort of software. The logistics of such an approach aren't something I'd want to manage, personally though. :)

Another thought is the extent to which external monitors (and keyboards) will be used. Dell does have that rather new "laptop" model with the 19" screen that can act like a separate monitor. The keyboard detaches and uses bluetooth.

Almost there...

[rAiNsT0rm]

Even though I'm a Linux guy, the closest I've seen to a possible laptop that could replace my desktop and be feasible is the latest Macbook Pro. DX10 graphics card, plenty of RAM, solid speed, LED LCD, good battery life, Superdrive, and big hard drive.

Once I see and read the reviews of the next OS X it may be time to make that jump to all laptop.

Re:Not until the keyboards improve

[sgant]

We may see the desktop computer disappear into the monitor, though.

Hmmm....we may see that one day.

Quite doubtful

[Opportunist]

1. Cost. Laptops cost almost twice what comparable desktop systems cost. This gap could close when flat displays become cheaper and production numbers increase considerably.

2. Upgrades. Upgrading a laptop means currently that you have to throw out the old one and buy a new one. This, too, could be seen as a minor problem, with the Joe Average User buying a new computer every few years rather than doing midlife upgrades and laptops that come across as "barebones" with interchangeable parts.

3. Vendor lock-in. Even if upgrading is possible, you often need very specific Dell/IBM/Toshiba-only parts that fit only in this brand of laptop, often also only in this series (anyone who ever wanted to up their ram in the IBM notebooks knows what I'm talking about). This is unlikely to change, since companies DO want you to be locked in. I highly doubt they'll agree to a standard.

4. Heat. The most advanced and fastest CPUs and even more GPUs produce an incredible amount of waste heat that a notebook cannot sensibly get rid of. Usually you do get a "notebook" version of those chips, but they are usually either slower or a generation behind, when more advanced production processes allow the same speed with less heat.

5. Displays. Notebooks are supposed to be small, displays can't be large enough. Unless we find a way to "fold" displays, people who want more than a 17" display will not enjoy the notebook experience. Either that or they'll grumble when they get to haul around a notebook that can house a 20" display...

5. Space. Notebooks only have so much space, unless you increase their size to inane proportions. This is most noticable for HDDs, which are hard if not impossible to upgrade, and even current notebooks hardly come with more than 200GB of storage space, something that is allright for travels, but I doubt it would make them popular with people who have a need for a lot of storage.

6. Defects. When a part of the notebook fails, you have to send it in for repairs. No user serviceable parts inside (with most models at least). When the graphics card in the desktop fails, rip it out and replace it.

The list goes on. While notebook use will certainly increase over the next years (points 1 and 2 can pretty easily be taken care of, and will), I do not see them as the all powerful replacement of desktops. They might have their place in work environments, especially when mobility is an issue, but in the private sector (and especially amongst hardcore gamers, video/audio junkies and graphics artists) the desktop will most likely survive.

I don't know...

[Overzeetop]

It'd be a bitch to try and install two or three PCI tuner cards in one for a mythtv setup, and pretty few laptops come with digital audio out, much less HDMI ports.

I doubt desktops will go away

[Todd Knarr]

These same "researchers" predicted that computers would make paper disappear from the office. Today offices deal with more paper than ever because electronic documents just don't do the job.

Laptops are popular with businesses because they can do double duty: plug into a docking station with a fixed monitor and keyboard for desktop use, but allow employees to take it home to do work after hours or on weekends. At the same time, though, those laptops are no end of hassle when dealing with the corporate network. Desktops, being nailed down to just one network, can just be configured and you're set. The laptops have to be able to deal with being on insecure outside networks, and the extra software to handle that is just a nightmare when they're attached to the corporate network. Not to mention that almost all of them currently are infected with several viruses and they're spreading them to the company net. The desktops aren't nearly as much of a problem in this regard. Business likes the cost savings, but a lot of people where I work are opting to keep their desktop boxes and use their own laptops instead of having the company give them a laptop (and take away their nice reliable desktop machine).

Then of course there's gaming. Very few laptops compare well to a desktop box when it comes to gaming performance. Gaming hardware eats too much power and throws off too much heat, and gamers don't like sacrificing performance.

My sense is that desktop PC shipments are dropping not because of any lack of demand for desktops. It's more that most people are satisfied with the box they've got now and are just upgrading components for a couple hundred dollars rather than buying a whole new system, and that people are going to white-box builders locally rather than buying from the big-name vendors. I know I can find higher-spec systems locally for better prices than I can find at Dell or the like. I mean, I built one for my niece earlier this year with hardware the equal of Dell's best gaming box but a cost around that of their mid-range non-gaming boxes. I've had to decline 4 requests to build systems since then, and pointed all 4 to local shops. I'm not surprised to see the big names seeing a drop-off in shipments.

Not dead yet

[marcosdumay]

"while worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year, portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28% and will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S. this quarter."

Well, I'd wait untill desktop shipments start to reduce until I call it dead.

It's not quite sane to call dead something that is growing 12% a year.

Why would desktops disappear??

[MoxFulder]

Just because desktop sales have leveled off doesn't mean they're going away. Sheesh! Okay, so everyone who needs and wants a desktop has one today. That's why sales are leveling off! It doesn't mean we no longer want them or need them!!! (By comparison, I doubt toothbrush sales have experienced phenomenal growth in the last few years... but that doesn't mean people don't need or won't buy toothbrushes anymore.)

There are many cool and exciting new uses for laptops/PDAs/tablets, but desktops have many uses as well. For example, most computer users have a desk at home or work where they get a lot of work done: there's no need to have that computer be mobile, and desktops are CHEAPER and MORE UPGRADABLE and MORE RELIABLE.

Upgradibility in particular is a huge issue for power users and hardware enthusiasts:

• Upgrade speed: With the nicely designed OEM case of my Acer minitower, I can have the case open in less than 15 seconds. I can replace an expansion card in about 30 more seconds. I can replace a RAM stick in about 30 seconds. I can add a new SATA hard drive in a couple minutes. I can replace the processor in 3-5 minutes. The power supply in 5-10 minutes maybe. I can do a whole mobo swap in probably 10-20 minutes. And I don't need any tools.
  By contrast, with my laptop, it takes maybe 5 minutes to replace the hard drive, and I have to mess with a bunch of fiddly little screws. To replace the RAM or optical drive I have to remove several panels and it probably takes 10-15 minutes. Replacing a MiniPCI wifi card is a huge pain and probably takes at least half an hour. And everything else simply can't be upgraded.
  
• Upgrade cost: Desktop computer motherboards, drives, expansion cards, power supplies, cases mostly use standard form factors and connectors. I can mix and match parts to my heart's content. Not so with the laptop! The hard disk is a standard FF, the optical drive is sorta standard, the miniPCI wireless card is sorta standard... and that's it. Good luck replacing the graphics card on your laptop, or the RAM on some models, or the processor, or the motherboard.
  
• Upgrade options: You can upgrade everything on a desktop. You can't easily upgrade anything but the HDD and RAM on most laptops, doing anything more requires tiny screwdrivers, a lot of patience, and the knowledge that you can easily hose your motherboard and have to replace the whole thing. And if you need specialty expansion cards for things like GPS or data acquisition, your only option is an external device--with lower performance, more clutter, and often more limited selection.
  

Now that's a load of horse hockey.

[Inoshiro]

"The reason laptops are starting to outsell desktops is simply that the cost premium has all but disappeared."

If I were to sell my MacBook Pro to get the latest model (gaining me an upgrade from an ATI X1600 128mb to an nVidia 8600M 256mb, a newer chipset, a 2.4Ghz CPU from a 2.16Ghz CPU, and an LED backlit display), it would cost more than a recent desktop upgrade I did. This desktop upgrade was roughly $800, and got me a 2.4Ghz AMD X2 CPU (vs. a 2.0Ghz X2), a 256mb nVidia 8600GTS (vs a 128mb 6800), 4gb of RAM (vs 2gb of RAM), and a much better motherboard (an Asus M2N-Sli deluxe).

The thing is, I got to keep all the old parts of my computer as well (allowing me to trickle them down to other machines) -- unlike the laptop situation, where I have to roll along the money by selling the old one to pay the majority of the difference on the new one.

My entire desktop setup, with 24" monitor, 5.1 speakers, and a local storage of 1tb of HD space cost $500 less than my MacBook Pro (which has a much smaller monitor, crappier video card, 1/5th the HD space, slower CPU, less RAM, etc). MacBook Pros, given their specs, are within $200 of similarly equipped Dell and other name-brand laptops. No-name laptops tend to have the kind of parts I wouldn't buy (Via Unichrome chipsets, for example), so aren't in consideration.

The funny thing is that a 17 or 20" laptop has an even larger price premium -- I could easily have a 30" monitor with my setup for the same price as one of those laptops.

Name for me 1 laptop that I could buy for less than $800 CAD that would let me play Oblivion at 1920x1200 45fps with all the settings turned up. My desktop rig can do that.

This price premium you speak of seems alive and well to me!