End of Moore's Law in 10-15 years?

javipas writes "In 1965 Gordon Moore — Intel's co-founder — predicted that the number of transistors on integrated circuits would double every two years. Moore's Law has been with us for over 40 years, but it seems that the limits of microelectronics are now not that far from us. Moore has predicted the end of his own law in 10 to 15 years, but he predicted that end before, and failed."

Comments

it's the law

[User 956]

Moore has predicted the end of his own law in 10 to 15 years, but he predicted that end before, and failed.

So then it seems with regards to his Law, Moore has fallen prey to Murphy.

Re:it's the law

[click2005]

What about the inverse of Moore's Law.. Every 2 years, the average IQ of all users on the internet halves.

Re:it's the law

[Anonymous Coward]

I believe we have now coined the click2005 law

"we"? "we" didn't do shit, n00b.

Re:it's the law

[Jarjarthejedi]

Normally that holds true, but this is the internet we're talking about...the average IQ can decrease relative to itself because people can be just that stupid. Not even mathematics can keep up with the drop in the internet's IQ.

Not to worry...

[Marc Desrochers]

It will be just in time for the arrival of cold fusion.

Moore's Second Law

[MyLongNickName]

Moore's second law: "Moore's first law will only work for 10-15 more years".
Moore's third law: "Moore's second law applies from the time it is quoted not from when it was originally uttered".

Best part about predicting own failure

[gurps_npc]

Is that even if you are wrong, you are still right.

Wow, that Moore guy was so smart he outsmarted Moore.

Hafnium Breakthrough

[smitty97]

from tfa:

"We're not far from that," Moore said on Monday. "Before we had our Hafnium breakthrough, we were down to the point where we were at five molecular layers in the gate structure of the transistors. When you clearly can't go below one...you get into other types of problems," Moore said. The law will continue, they just need breakthroughs with Quarternium, Eigthnium, etc..

And next year ...

[mshmgi]

Next year, they'll tell us that Moore's Law will end in 5-7.5 years.

Re:Gordon Moore

[Velveeta_512]

I was thinking the same thing, or if quantum hasn't been quite refined as a useful science yet, at the very least, nanocomputing should be advanced enough to the point that it can take the reigns from microcomputing... That's what we like to do in this industry anyway, just change out prefixes when the technology hits a certain milestone... If you think the nano-itx motherboards are small, wait until you see the super-mega-ultra-nano-itx in 10 years, all components will be on separate cards, not quite risers, because they'll be connected via fiberoptic links directly into the bus a few microns away from the tri-tri-core CPU, the AMD Zelda-core 64000+ processor... And thanks to the miracle of nanocomputing's molecular level manipulation, food replicators will be a USB device available from Newegg... However, thanks to the miracles of the evolving software industry to meet the ever-increasing needs of users, there won't be drivers available for the new food replicators on Linux, it takes Windows 2020 over an hour to produce 1 hardboiled egg that you could have made yourself in 5-10 minutes, because it's thrashing your solid state drive (because really people, 2 terabytes of RAM is OS's recommended *minimum*), and it tastes more like a peanut butter sandwich because you don't have the latest Microsoft version of the driver for Windows 2020, because of course it makes the hardware incompatible with Windows 2020... Mac users will complain that they've had their iReplicator for 6 months already and stood in line for 12 hours to get one, and Jobs is slashing the price in half in anticipation of the release of the 2nd generation iReplicator...

Re:Law?

[plover]

Can we stop being so f'ing pedantic every time a story mentions Moore's Law?

This is slashdot, so ...

no.

My prediction

[Random832]

I predict the number of predictions of the end of Moore's Law will double every six months.

Re:10 years ...

[mce]

Nobody will ever need more than twice the computing power he already has available on the moment he makes this assessment.

Re:10 years ...

[Anonymous Coward]

Why do you need twice the computing power but not more? Your current system is too slow for HiDef porn playback, but once that's fixed you have no other need?

Ob Simpsons quote

[Maximum Prophet]

Homer: Lisa, in this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!!!

Moore's 2nd Law

[Trailer Trash]

Moore's 2nd law is that Moore's 1st law is going to come to an end in about 10 years. Always.

Re:Gordon Moore

[Anonymous Coward]

Can you imagine the linux scheduler debates over using a quantum processor?