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Robot-Run Warehouse Speeds Deliveries

Ponca City, We Love You writes "The robot invasion may soon be coming to a warehouse near you. In a conventional warehouse, workers walk from shelf to shelf to fill orders, while in conveyor-based systems, boxes move past workers who pack them. A new warehouse design arranges rows and columns of freestanding shelves in a memory-chip-like grid serviced by robots. When a consumer submits an order, robots deliver the relevant shelving units to workers who pack the requested items in a box and ship them off allowing workers to fill orders two to three times faster than they could with conventional methods because the robots can work in parallel, allowing dozens of workers to fill dozens of orders simultaneously. The robotic system is also faster because the entire warehouse can adapt, in real time, to changes in demand by having the robots move shelves with popular items closer to the workers (pdf), where the shelves can be quickly retrieved while items that aren't selling are gradually moved farther away. Two giant warehouses have already been built for Staples and a third is being built for Walgreens where the software will also keep track of expiration dates to ensure that items that can go bad are sent out in the order that they're stocked."

142 comments

  1. why is this news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    Why is this news? these kinds of warehouses have been around for years.

    1. Re:why is this news by visualight · · Score: 1

      I know they had them in Japan as far back as 1994, in freezer warehouses where the temperature was always -40F.

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    2. Re:why is this news by macdo10 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Omeone tried to sell me this system for my warehouse just last week. I laughed politely. $2 000 000 + to replace one guy + another 5 or 6 temps, two months per year? I don't think so...

    3. Re:why is this news by badc0ffee · · Score: 1
      News because this is so '70s... Rohr corporation in Chula Vista was doing this with their Automove wharehouse. Bill Baily (won't you please come home) started a food delivery service using the Rohr system. People had a catalog, would call in their order, put it on their tab, and it would be filled and delivered. Almost nobody paid their tab, so they went bust after a few months when the investers money ran out.

      This is news, because someone found a way to collect the money?

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    4. Re:why is this news by Technician · · Score: 1

      Why is this news? these kinds of warehouses have been around for years.

      Yes.. In semiconductor manufacturing
      http://www.asyst.com/products/fsol/amhs/amhs.asp

      in food production
      http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3846/is_200307/ai_n9282236
      http://www.pbase.com/four12/image/46413392
      The toiling continues. To handle the growth, TCCA opened a new manufacturing plant two years ago in Boardman, east of Portland along the Columbia River, and completed an automatic storage and retrieval system (ASRS) at the Tillamook creamery. Opened in 2000, the ASRS is a 35-million-pound capacity cold storage warehouse with seven refrigerated shipping bays, and a new electrical distribution and refrigeration system.

      Sorry I couldn't find an online photo of the inside of the automated refrigerated warehouse. It isn't open to visitors.

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    5. Re:why is this news by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      1 guy-year plus 6 men * 2 months = 2 man-years.

      That's about $90k in salary (on average) not counting benefits and employment taxes.

      Seems like the machine is an investment with ~5% return. Better than inflation, but possibly not better than the loan you'd use to purchase it. Also, if it only replaces the temps, it's even less of a return.

      At those prices, I don't think I'd have rejected the system outright. I'd really need to do the further investigation to see if it's worth it, and the first price quoted isn't necessarily the price you'd pay after negotiation.

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    6. Re:why is this news by macdo10 · · Score: 1

      I should have been more precise really. - The warehouse I'm responsible for has one full-time guy in it - presumably, I'd still need someone to sign for deliveries, so I could at best replace him with a part-timer. In fact, I'm guessing that I'd need a highly-trained technician on site to operate the beast, so I'd probably end up paying more in salary, not less. - The warehouse is in France, and the temps are on minimum wage. So your estimate of $90k is about three times too high (that's averages for you!) - $2 million was the purchase. What are the running costs? I doubt they'd be cheap. Maintenance alone...(even if they chucked the first couple of years in free, that's not the sort of set-up that you write off after 5, or even 10). Obviously, I did run the numbers - it's just that it took me about 30 secs to do so.

    7. Re:why is this news by lucifuge31337 · · Score: 1

      I was doing repair work on machines at Abbott Labs in Rocky Mount, NC over 10 years ago and they had something exactly like this. It was disturbing to know it was being run on a MicroVAX - especially when one of those 1200lb pallet jack robots was heading for you.

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  2. Very promising. by mikael_j · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I've been waiting for quite some time for industrial use of robots to go beyond stationary machines that weld or cut parts, obviously there are other things that robots are used for today but something like this might actually appeal to a lot of companies that are what you might call "conservative" when it comes to automation.

    Because let's be honest, wouldn't we love to live in a world where all almost all menial labour is performed by automated machines with only a handful of skilled experts controlling the machines? I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want. If we ever get to the point where less than 20% or so of the population is required to work in order to support the rest of the population then people really wouldn't have to work anymore because let's be honest, not everyone works just because they want money, there are lots of people who would continue working because they were passionate about their jobs. What we need to do is get rid of the boring mundane jobs that no one wants.

    One problem with this "utopia" (Although Utopia as described in the book wasn't what most people think of when they hear the word) is support functions such as technical support and customer services, people are still going to have problems getting their DSL working and someone will have to help them with that. Oh well, it's a nice dream anyway, a technocratic utopia in which no one is forced to work a boring mundane job unless they want to..

    /Mikael (dreamer)

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    1. Re:Very promising. by CRCulver · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want.

      Technology hasn't increased leisure time. Rather it has only lengthened working hours except where the law has gotten involved (thank goodness for 35-hour working weeks in the EU as opposed to Victorian-era coal mines). Modern technological societies work much longer hours than hunter and gatherer cultures, though of course sitting in a cubicle is much less exhausting than chasing after a boar.

      There is the old adage that work expands to fill the hours set for it. Now that the Western world is used to working all day every day, even after the rise of robot labour we might not necessarily get the utopia some people envision.

      John Zerzan is probably the most well-known writer on the theme that technology only shackles humanity, see e.g. his Against Civilization . I don't agree with quite a lot of what he writes, but it is nonetheless thought-provoking.

    2. Re:Very promising. by absoluteflatness · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The real dream here is that 20% of the people would ever decide to support the other 80% out of the goodness of their hearts. These kinds of developments tend to be seen more as a harbinger of doom than pointing towards a future utopia. Eliminate all menial labor without drastically increasing the quality of education would result in massive unemployment and unrest, I fear. Yes, people would still be having trouble with their DSL, but as a result of the riots.

    3. Re:Very promising. by MindStalker · · Score: 1

      Of course then there is always the problem of there is always a limited quantity of physical resources, ie energy, metals, plastics etc. How do you ration out this supply, do you just give people some form of ration credit or do you expect them to work in order to earn credits (ie money). If there are no credits at all people WILL take more than they need.

    4. Re:Very promising. by mikael_j · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's true. However, one interesting detail here is that in the past there have been examples of factories planning to automate parts of the production of various products which has resulted in massive protests from workers and local authorities afraid of mass unemployment. The end result of this of course being that the people in charge have been convinced in various ways (tax subsidies etc..) to hold back on automation.

      This is probably the biggest problem with moving society to a state of "techno-utopia", that the transition could land a lot of people unemployed and unable to support themselves until the transition is over. I don't have a solution to this problem and until someone comes up with one I suspect we won't be hearing about people buying and selling things using energy credits instead of dollars and euros. :/

      /Mikael

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    5. Re:Very promising. by mikael_j · · Score: 1

      Well, the technocratic idea is to give everyone "energy credits" which represent a certain percentage of energy production, the cost of various items and services would then be directly proportional to how much energy is required to supply them.

      There are of course problems with greed which is why a society like this won't be likely until we are able to produce goods on such a level that your ability to consume manufactured goods won't be hindered by how well-paid you are but rather by the fact that you are able to afford pretty much everything you want (of course one could argue that there will always be greedy people who insist on trying to own 500 cars and 50 houses just because they can, this is another problem with this utopian dream but I still reserve the right to retain some of my idealism :).

      /Mikael

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    6. Re:Very promising. by Carbon016 · · Score: 1

      almost all menial labour is performed by automated machines with only a handful of skilled experts controlling the machines?
      You may find Kurt Vonnegut's Player Piano a good book on that subject. Was the first thing I thought of and may have some insight on your "utopia" :)
    7. Re:Very promising. by nospam007 · · Score: 1

      Because let's be honest, wouldn't we love to live in a world where all almost all menial labour is performed by automated machines with only a handful of skilled experts controlling the machines? I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts ...
      ___
      Who wouldn't. ....while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want.
      ____
      Queuing by the soup-kitchens? ... let's be honest, not everyone works just because they want money, there are lots of people who would continue working because they were passionate about their jobs.
      ___

      Exactly. I know thousands of Walmart and warehouse employees that work just for the fun of it.

      If you had to pay 95% taxes to support the 80% the fun would be out of it very fast.

    8. Re:Very promising. by mikael_j · · Score: 1

      Obviously the idea is that you automate the boring jobs and make sure that everyone shares the wealth. You OTOH are still thinking in terms of dollars, profits and shareholders (at least that's how your post reads). I'm not saying there are no problems with the idea but I am saying you have to look beyond what we have right now to understand the appeal of it.

      There would probably still be a need for people to help customers in stores, but imagine if they didn't have to stock shelves, clean up in the isles and stay late to help take inventory anymore. Wouldn't that make working in a store a lot more interesting? to just work there to help customers find the items they need instead of spending all your time stocking shelves or standing by a door saying "Welcome to random warehouse-like superstore..."?

      /Mikael

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    9. Re:Very promising. by ReeceTarbert · · Score: 1

      I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want.
      You mean starving/begging/stealing?

      True, there are a lot of shitty jobs that people would happily do without but, let's face it, not everyone could possibly be employed as an expert -- even if they had the skills.

      there are lots of people who would continue working because they were passionate about their jobs
      I think it's far more likley that people work just because they need the money. I certainly do, or I would just have hobbies!

      I'm not saying that you can't receive gratification (monetary or otherwise) from a job, only that you are lucky if/when you do. As I see it, it could be said that if you need to work to support yourself you are still a slave, but I digress... ;-)


      RT
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    10. Re:Very promising. by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 2, Informative

      "If we ever get to the point where less than 20% or so of the population is required to work in order to support the rest of the population then people really wouldn't have to work anymore because let's be honest, not everyone works just because they want money, there are lots of people who would continue working because they were passionate about their jobs. What we need to do is get rid of the boring mundane jobs that no one wants."

      Insightful, but we reached that point decades ago.

      See:
      "The Abolition of Work" by Bob Black, 1985
      http://www.whywork.org/rethinking/whywork/abolition.html
      "I don't suggest that most work is salvageable in this way. But then most work isn't worth trying to save. Only a small and diminishing fraction of work serves any useful purpose independent of the defense and reproduction of the work-system and its political and legal appendages. Twenty years ago, Paul and Percival Goodman estimated that just five percent of the work then being done -- presumably the figure, if accurate, is lower now -- would satisfy our minimal needs for food, clothing and shelter. Theirs was only an educated guess but the main point is quite clear: directly or indirectly, most work serves the unproductive purposes of commerce or social control. Right off the bat we can liberate tens of millions of salesmen, soldiers, managers, cops, stockbrokers, clergymen, bankers, lawyers, teachers, landlords, security guards, ad-men and everyone who works for them. There is a snowball effect since every time you idle some bigshot you liberate his flunkies and underlings also. Thus the economy implodes."

      And:
      "The Triple Revolution: Cybernation, Weaponry, Human Rights" sent to President Lyndon B. Johnson in March 1964
      http://www.educationanddemocracy.org/FSCfiles/C_CC2a_TripleRevolution.htm

      Of course, we actually had such a life as hunter/gatherers (ignoring some of the downsides there). Essentially, when there was a small human population relative to the size fo the planet., food was abundant relative to the number of people, so it was very easy to acquire.
      http://www.primitivism.com/original-affluent.htm

      And here is the great tragedy of the Americas:
      http://www.marcinequenzer.com/creation.htm#The%20Field%20of%20Plenty
      "The Field of Plenty is always full of abundance. The gratitude we show as Children of Earth allows the ideas within the Field of Plenty to manifest on the Good Red Road so we may enjoy these fruits in a physical manner. When the cornucopia was brought to the Pilgrims, the Iroquois People sought to assist these Boat People in destroying their fear of scarcity. The Native understanding is that there is always enough for everyone when abundance is shared and when gratitude is given back to the Original Source. The trick was to explain the concept of the Field of Plenty with few mutually understood words or signs. The misunderstanding that sprang from this lack of common language robbed those who came to Turtle Island of a beautiful teaching. Our "land of the free, home of the brave" has fallen into taking much more than is given back in gratitude by its citizens. Turtle Island has provided for the needs of millions who came from lands that were ruled by the greedy. In our present state of abundance, many of our inhabitants have forgotten that Thanksgiving is a daily way of living, not a holiday that comes once a year."

      Thankfully via the GPL and some inspiration (RepRap), those abundant days may come again:
      http://reprap.org/
      "RepRap is short for Replicating Rapid-prototyper. It is the practical self-copying 3D printer

      --
      A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
    11. Re:Very promising. by Logic+and+Reason · · Score: 1

      If we ever get to the point where less than 20% or so of the population is required to work in order to support the rest of the population...
      As others have noted, we're already there if you're just talking about food, clothing and shelter. But as our technology improves, our demand for convenience also increases; so I doubt we'll ever see a "Utopia" such as you describe. We will never "get rid of the boring mundane jobs that no one wants" because our definition of "mundane" is always changing.

      ...let's be honest, not everyone works just because they want money, there are lots of people who would continue working because they were passionate about their jobs.
      It's more fundamental than that: work is a necessary part of human life. By "work" here I don't mean "earning money"; I mean "accomplishing something through effort." Where work is not necessary for survival, we create it. I think this is close to what you were saying, but I wanted to make the distinction because so many people think of work merely as a means to make money.
    12. Re:Very promising. by Bloke+down+the+pub · · Score: 1

      I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want.
      For most of them, what they want to do would be sitting on their fat shellsuit-clad arses while getting even fatter, punctuated with spawning more feckless parasites like themselves. For a significant minority, it would involve stealing your things and attacking you and your family. I'm not sure that's progress.
      --
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    13. Re:Very promising. by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Actually, people now work FAR LESS than hunters-gatherers or even medieval peasants. You basically need to work 7 hours a day 5 days a week.

      Hunters-gatherers had to work from dawn to dusk just to survive.

    14. Re:Very promising. by CRCulver · · Score: 3, Informative

      No, read up on hunter gatherer lifestyles. The work week in the Congo before European colonization was three days long. Agriculture was what brought in working from dusk to dawn every day.

    15. Re:Very promising. by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Ah, but you see - most people don't live in Congo (and in tropical regions in general). And it's impossible to have a large population in temperate climate without agriculture.

    16. Re:Very promising. by justamember · · Score: 1

      Hmm... well, firstly the use of robots in warehouse situations is not new, and secondly, having experienced robotic storeman behaviour a few years ago, I wouldn't just write off humans in the logistics chain just yet. I remember on one occasion ordering a particular component at a state of the art warehousing facility. I ordered the component through the human storeman, and definitely saw the number "ONE" in the screen quantity box. I then watched as the little robotic trolley went off in search of it among the racks and shelving. About five minutes later, the little trolley returned, and dumped into the "OUT" tray not one but seven components, which turned out to be the entire stock of that part. Which just left the human storekeeper the task of returning to stock the (expensive) six unwanted items, which of course the computerized stock keeping system would no longer recognize because as far as it was concerned they had been issued. That said, that was obviously early days, and inevitably the system improved with time and( a great deal of) money being spent on it.

    17. Re:Very promising. by timeOday · · Score: 1

      people now work FAR LESS than hunters-gatherers or even medieval peasants. You basically need to work 7 hours a day 5 days a week.
      That may be the number of hours that you are on somebody's clock getting paid with money (although 35 hours/week is a very low estimate). But yYou have to add in commuting, shopping, cooking, caring for children, and repairing your house and car (often on the weekends). These forms of work are perhaps closer to prehistoric work, because you are doing diverse activities to produce value for your family directly. The part of work where you do repetitive specialized work for cash is relatively modern.
    18. Re:Very promising. by GreatBunzinni · · Score: 1

      The only reason these types of advancements are seen "as a harbringer of doom" is due to the fact that some societies simply refuse to adopt and implement social programs.

      When we have a developed state where the state takes care of every citizen's basic human needs like healthcare and education and eliminates the social unrest caused by unemployment by offering satisfying unemployment benefits then any small-scale "industrial revolution" event like this one, which end up completely eliminating jobs, will not generate any social unrest. The simple fact is that in desperate situations everyone (and I do mean everyone) is compelled to adopt desperate measures to simply get by. As soon as someone sees himself in the desperate situation of not having a job, not being capable of getting one, having to support himself and others at his care... That is a situation which is as desperate as it gets.

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    19. Re:Very promising. by waveclaw · · Score: 1

      I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want.


      After age 21 it seems all that a large portion of the population wants to do is watch TV and get laid. Not everyone can be a Nielson viewer and the military/church seriously hates any contraception that might lower their recruitment pool.

      Unskilled and semi-skilled day labor exits for a reason:

      Humans are at least as numerous as pigeons, their brains are not significantly costlier than pigeon brains, and for many tasks they are actually superior. -- Richard Dawkins

      --

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    20. Re:Very promising. by name*censored* · · Score: 2, Interesting
      > Technology hasn't increased leisure time. Rather it has only lengthened working hours except where the law has gotten involved (thank goodness for 35-hour working weeks > in the EU as opposed to Victorian-era coal mines). Modern technological societies work much longer hours than hunter and gatherer cultures, though of course sitting in a > cubicle is much less exhausting than chasing after a boar. > There is the old adage that work expands to fill the hours set for it. Now that the Western world is used to working all day every day, even after the rise of robot > labour we might not necessarily get the utopia some people envision. > John Zerzan is probably the most well-known writer on the theme that technology only shackles humanity, see e.g. his Against Civilization . I don't agree with quite a > lot of what he writes, but it is nonetheless thought-provoking.

      Yes, but there's no reason to think this won't yo-yo back on us. The reasons machines increase our workload are 1) Machines do not interface with humans very efficiently; UIs need to be learned, and appendages do not move as quickly or as accurately as the brain would like them to 2) The demand for everything has increased directly due to machines (as we are now living longer, reproducing more, spending more resources on and using more tools for leisure, and doing things that only technology makes possible) - but the ability to supply it automatically has not kept up. (As you've said, work expands to fill time out) 3) Machines aren't yet capable of doing "complex" tasks (tasks that require constant evaluation of the surrounding environment with unpredictable parameters), only doing simple tasks really, well and very quickly. (PS. Machines' ability to do things that seem complex to us, ie, lengthy sums, are only because that's their most basic function, ours is not) 4) The very existence/evolution of technology to the point of "utopia" means that we have to move at a very rapid pace (compared to the boar-hunter who would find a good tactic and stick to it for his life), we have to constantly re-learn UIs, install new system/infrastructure, fix the problems with the new systems, all whilst doing everything we used to do. 5) The amount of data being collected, cached and shared is at unprecedented levels. Almost every job in the western world involves dealing with large amounts of data in very short spaces of time, which exhausts people (which slows them down and makes them work longer). This would not happen if the data entry was handled entirely by machines. 6) Machines' interaction with the general environment is at a very early stage; there is no machine that is suitable to the variety of elements and environments that humans are exposed to as a matter of course. Even though there are machines that can handle situations humans can't (extreme heat, radioactivity, poisons, explosives, intense pressures, concussions, etc), these specialty machines are just that - only suited to the environment for which they were made.

      However, technology is making vast strides into all these problems that it created, and given that we seem to be reaching the end of the possible problems that the machines can produce, and are starting to have look towards solving problems (e.g. the environmental problems caused by machines), there's no reason to think that the workload will continue to increase for much longer (what we'll do with ourselves once we're free of work is another matter entirely).
      --
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    21. Re:Very promising. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Must be nice to work in the EU where you dont work 9-10 hours a day, 5-6 days a week, on Salary of course...

    22. Re:Very promising. by sonofabeach · · Score: 1
      The real problem with this utopian vision is that it won't work under capitalism. The problem is the workers who are displaced by those robots don't own the robots, and hence aren't entitled to any of the resulting increased productivity achieved by them. All of the productivity increases gained by employing robots instead of humans goes to the owner of the robots (usually the firm), which was already earning a profit above the wages it was paying to its workers.


      So workers lose out big time while the firm owners gain even more profit. Inequality increases as increasing amounts of profit is accumulated by fewer and fewer people (usually firm owners or owners of capital).


      This is of course the result of technological progress in general. The Luddites are a great case in point. I'm not at all opposed to technological progress, but without massive redistribution of wealth, it will be impossible for 80% of the population to subsist on the production of 20%. In order for the 80% to not work, the firm owners would have to keep paying the workers it laid off as a result of utilizing these robots. It's not like the workers are getting together and saying, "Hey, let's pool our savings and buy a big robot to run the warehouse. That way the robot can keep working while we stay at home and collect our paychecks." And that wouldn't last very long because what's to prevent the company from "firing" the workers' robot and replacing it with one of its own?

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    23. Re:Very promising. by Tim+C · · Score: 1

      That's all very interesting, but I think you'll find that the number one reason why increasing levels of technology aren't shortening peoples working weeks is money. So a new process, technology, computer, robot, etc has made your job easier and quicker? Excellent! You can do more then!

      As long as we have money, people (and especially companies) will want to make more. That means that given the choice between earning the same and working less, or earning more and working the same, while some individuals may choose the former I challenge you to find a single company that won't choose the latter, and drag the staff along with them.

    24. Re:Very promising. by houghi · · Score: 1

      Technology hasn't increased leisure time.

      Yes it has. It is just that some get more then others. We call it unemployment.

      The reason is simpe: think of getting payed per hour, instead of per task AND we are greedy, so that if we can do more tasks in the same time, we do not take more time off, we do more tasks.

      That way if we both can de the task we previously did in the same time twice as fast, either you or I will be out of a job. Most likely the person who is willing to do it for the least amount.

      First you got payed per hour to do 1 taks. Now you are able to do 2 tasks. You will not get payed double, you most likely get payed the same, giving me all of the leisure time.

      The endresult? You get nothing more (exept more tasks to do). I get time, but no money to spend it, so I will be trying to wor for 90% undercutting you. The only one who wins are the shareholders.

      yes, this is very much simplified.
      --
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    25. Re:Very promising. by Johnny+Mnemonic · · Score: 1


      Because let's be honest, wouldn't we love to live in a world where all almost all menial labour is performed by automated machines with only a handful of skilled experts controlling the machines? I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want. If we ever get to the point where less than 20% or so of the population is required to work in order to support the rest of the population then people really wouldn't have to work anymore

      That is a very naive attitude. When the menial laborers are replaced by machines, who do you think will pay the now obsolete laborers? No one. And they'll still have bill to pay. In this case, "freedom" means "freedom from having money" not "freedom to do what you want". More than likely, instead of having leisure time, those folks will spend their time slowly starving.

      I'm not necessarily advocating that we do not employ robotic assistance to save the jobs of the menial laborers; I'm suggesting that the transition will come with economic tumult and fierce resistance. If you advocate robotic replacements for humans, you should expect that reaction or you will have your policies surprisingly defeated.

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    26. Re:Very promising. by budgenator · · Score: 1

      The problem is the computer is better at supervising and directing the other robots so the few highly skilled robot supers are SOL; and the humans are still better at hand-eye coordination and compensating for minor variences than the robots are. That means we are good at what we don't want to do and poorer at the things we do want to do. My cousin used to run group homes for retarded citizens, some of them had fine motor skills that were mind-boggling.

      --
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    27. Re:Very promising. by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      "Work" used to mean carrying heavy loads and driving things into the earth with hammers and stuff. And to some, it still does. But a lot of what we now refer to as "work" really isn't. Sitting at an air-conditioned desk, typing away may be stressful, but to call it "work" is an insult to people who've really had to labor in dangerous conditions.

      The reality is that we're at the point *now* where only about 3% of the population has to work to meet our needs. The rest is about figuring out how best to distribute the fruits of their labors.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    28. Re:Very promising. by PopeJM · · Score: 1

      The idea is that in the past when population was lower, all hunter-gatherers could live in tropical areas where it didn't take much work. In today's world, hunter-gatherers do more work because the population of the Earth has increased and forced them to live in fringe environments like the arctic.

    29. Re:Very promising. by Karellen · · Score: 1

      "Technology hasn't increased leisure time."

      That depends. I have a couple of friends who do have a fair amount of leisure time. They work part-time by choice, about 15-20 hours per week, in fairly low-paying jobs. They make enough to cover the rent, food and bills, and have a bit left over for entertainment.

      They don't have *that* much left over; they don't have plasma TVs or huge CD/DVD collections, and they don't need to maintain a car due to a) a decent and relatively inexpensive public transport system in their area, and b) being close enough to most of the places they go on a regular basis to walk most of the time. And they don't have huge apartments. But they don't need much left over, as they don't need any of those things. They're pretty active members of the local library, and sort out a fair amount of their own entertainment. One is a hobbyist composer/musician, the other roleplays in a number of games, GMing one or two of them.

      So, they don't work that much, and the jobs they do aren't that demanding (they're university graduates) and they don't let the jobs get to them. If they get much hassle about "not being involved" they just move on to something similar. There are plenty of those kinds of jobs around.

      And they're happy.

      You can live healthily and happily in a modern technological society without working 35-hour weeks. It's just that most people don't because they're keeping up with the Joneses and want all the latest shiny that they don't really need.

      --
      Why doesn't the gene pool have a life guard?
    30. Re:Very promising. by Strilanc · · Score: 1

      Except now customers are getting 2 tasks performed for them at the same price. We do the same amount of work and get more, instead of doing less and getting the same amount.

    31. Re:Very promising. by Willuknight · · Score: 1

      i like doing that stuff at times, it gives me a break from dealing with demanding customers.

      --
      Do not anger the Karma Whores, for they don't bathe often, and might decide to come visit you in person. -Ryan Amos
    32. Re:Very promising. by TempeTerra · · Score: 1

      Your points are all correct, but that's not why leisure time isn't increased with automation. Consider the simplified view that there are two types of people: wage workers and infrastructure owners. Wage workers trade their time for money. Infrastructure owners employ the wage workers to use their infrastructure to create value; they are shareholders and landowners and other sorts of wealthy layabouts ;)

      Automation benefits the infrastructure owners because they can produce more value with fewer employees. The wage workers who are replaced by automation are SOL because they have no stake in the increased value being produced (except that the whole trade system benefits from improved efficiency and presumably lower prices). The wage workers need to find someone else to provide labour to (and competition between them will keep wages at a level which gives an acceptable lifestyle for full time work), or starve in the street. Starving in the street is not usually considered leisure time although there are similarities ;)

      The crux of the matter is that the number of positions for wage workers does not necessarily increase as automation does, and only the most exceptional wage workers will ever become wealthy by working for someone else. Unemployment, the other name for leisure time, will increase and while wage workers will be SOL infrastructure owners will be able to subsist off their investments.

      I am not an economist, but this is my understanding and I am interested in hearing counter arguments. Based on this, I aspire to own my own home, be debt free and have a modest income from investment. That way if I end up unemployed I can shrug my shoulders and call it leisure time.

      --
      .evom ton seod gis eht
    33. Re:Very promising. by FredThompson · · Score: 1

      This has been around for quite a long time, actually. The "challenge" with selling robotics into older industries isn't the lack of abilities, its' the FUD of the consumer and their general inability to define what they really want to happen. As an example, I've been selling pallet building robots. The customers comprehend the aspect of picking up and stacking the items on the pallet but almost universally cannot explain how they want identification attached to the loads. They will say, "it needs to do load tags." OK, what does that mean? Where does the information come from? Do they manually load a hopper with paper or is the system supposed to print. If so, how does it get the data and onto what, exactly, should it print? Customers also tend to be unrealistic and want a 100% replacement for a person with infinite adjustability and flexibility. It's not possible to completely replace all the capabilities of a human being. Specific tasks can be done faster, more accurately and more efficiently but completely replacing every conceivable thing a human body, let alone brain, can do? Not possible.

      Moving shelves, controlled shuttling of bins, pick and pack have all been around for years and are in thousands of applications today. You can see some examples on the website of a company I represent: http://www.eutrolog.com/EN-US/soluzioni_04.asp You can also see a short video of a fully autonomous forklift which is part of a complete factory system on our website: http://www.corrugatedmachines.com/ (look at the fork lift video for Eutro Log)

    34. Re:Very promising. by Dirtside · · Score: 1

      Twenty years ago, Paul and Percival Goodman estimated that just five percent of the work then being done -- presumably the figure, if accurate, is lower now -- would satisfy our minimal needs for food, clothing and shelter. Theirs was only an educated guess but the main point is quite clear: directly or indirectly, most work serves the unproductive purposes of commerce or social control.

      So, we should strive to do only the bare minimum necessary for survival? No thanks. The fundamental problem with Bob Black's whole point of view is that he assumes that nothing has any value beyond providing basic survival needs. I actually tried reading through that article a couple of years ago and I couldn't even finish it, his logic is so bad.
      --
      "Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
    35. Re:Very promising. by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

      Would you mind clarifying where his logic is bad? He points out how much work is needless (except to preserve the work and rationing-based system), how much other work can be reorganized to be fun, and how the remaining drudgery work could likely be mostly automated.

      Because you want more than the minimum, and are willing to sacrifice your free time to do so, does that mean everyone else should be forced to work too?

      From the related links I posted, human beings (hunters and gatherers) once spent most of their time doing non-survival stuff, like helping others, playing music, traveling, visiting friends, spending time with one's own children (instead of outsourcing that to nannies or schools or daycare), just staring at the sky and thinking or having a spiritual experience, and even just getting a good night's sleep. Perhaps you are discounting the value of free time? Those are usually pleasurable activities which many people in the USA no longer have much time for. The novel _Momo_ by Michael Ende is somewhat related to this theme.

      Besides, if 5% or 3% is way to low, then how about 10%? Is that enough for you? Survival X 2? The point is to open a discussion on the fact that we are making choices -- value choices -- in how we spend our time and in what we strive to make and in how we organize ourselves (including what risks are acceptable, like the risk or world war over resources we may use more of than we need). And also to think about the law of diminishing returns on having more stuff and less time. Sure, maybe the optimum point for most people likely isn't the bare minimum. But it is also equally unlikely to be the extreme maximum. So where and how do we find a balance point? One perhaps radically different from what we have now? And then, what of the benefits of free time? More free software? More research? More innovative ideas, like self-replicating space habitats that could provide living space in high style for trillions of people, but we are too busy right now making snowmobiles and being programmed to consume by TV to think about?

      For another take on this you might find more readable, consider E.F. Schumacher's "Buddhist economics":
          http://www.schumachersociety.org/buddhist_economics/english.html
      From there: "The Buddhist point of view takes the function of work to be at least threefold: to give man a chance to utilise and develop his faculties; to enable him to overcome his ego-centredness by joining with other people in a common task; and to bring forth the goods and services needed for a becoming existence. Again, the consequences that flow from this view are endless. To organise work in such a manner that it becomes meaningless, boring, stultifying, or nerve-racking for the worker would be little short of criminal; it would indicate a greater concern with goods than with people, an evil lack of compassion and a soul-destroying degree of attachment to the most primitive side of this worldly existence. Equally, to strive for leisure as an alternative to work would be considered a complete misunderstanding of one of the basic truths of human existence, namely that work and leisure are complementary parts of the same living process and cannot be separated without destroying the joy of work and the bliss of leisure."

      --
      A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  3. Is this new? by Jedi+Alec · · Score: 1

    I've been seeing this kind of thing on Discovery for quite a while, for example on the plant used to refit US tanks.

    Ofc tank parts aren't as sensitive to first in-first out as foodstuffs, but still, not all that sensational, is it?

    --

    People replying to my sig annoy me. That's why I change it all the time.
  4. Just because we can, that's why. by CBob · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Now it's the "service" jobs? Something really wonderful when the marginal pay jobs are being replaced with robotics.

    Machines can't ask for benefits, sue for safer conditions, unionize or any of that nasty stuff.

    Now all they need to do is actually buy all the wonderful outsourced or made in China items they're shipping.

    Of course they'll also have to realize at some point that maybe replacing 5 guys that made 20k$ a year with a 2 million dollar system wasn't such a cunning plan, but by then, it'll be time to write off the system for the stockholders so the board can get a bigger bonus. /morning grouch mode <ON>

    1. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      5 guys that made 20k$ a year First of all, that number can't be correct cause that would be less money than you get by not working in quite a few countries.
      Second, there is no replacing going on: the warehouse is either built in a fashion that favors robots, or in the traditional way that makes robotic workers infeasible.
      Put together, it is very doubtful that this system doesn't cost less for warehouse operators. The consumer benefits, because he doesn't have to pay as much money as he used to.
      And I couldn't care less if deprecated jobs got sorted out of the system. Why would you care about something random like that?
    2. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Right on. Take that, capitalist bastards who try to weasel out of providing your robots with dental plans and union rights!

    3. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by MyForest · · Score: 1

      I used to work in a car parts factory in the UK. We paid someone to lift product from the output hopper of one machine and put it into the input feed of another machine. So I asked the obvious question. They had already found out that it would cost 250k for a machine to do this job. The guy doing it was getting around 10k and when they were really busy they'd hire another guy for a second shift. The maintenance on the machine would have been more than the wages.

      Luckily this was a sane company, so they didn't buy the machine.

    4. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by CRCulver · · Score: 1

      Machines can't ask for benefits, sue for safer conditions, unionize or any of that nasty stuff.

      But one day the metal ones may rise up against us.

    5. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The robot won't get injured and double your workman's comp. The robot won't claim a "back injury" and double your workman's comp. The robot won't get shitfaced every few weeks and show up late. The robot won't get injured doing something stupid, and get his lawyer to sue you for some bullshit, wasting the price of a robot on legal fees. The robot's lawyer won't win the bullshit lawsuit, costing you 5 times the cost of the robot. The robot won't present bogus papers and get you a visit by ICE. The robot won't take a smoke break every hour. The robot won't steal stuff. The robot won't skip work because it's "sick". The robot doesn't demand holidays. The robot will get fixed if it's not doing it's job, and the robot won't file EEO complaints.

      There are two good reasons for robots. The big one is to get people out of dangerous jobs. The second is that our entitlement society gives 90% of employees who are worthless shitbags. Yes, that's why my organization hires Latinos of questionable papers. "work harder, not smarter" is better then "stick it to the man". The pay is only a small part of the cost of employees.

    6. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      as if letting us rot on this rock while they conquer the galaxy wasn't an option ...

    7. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And another thing - robots aren't niggers.

    8. Re:Just because we can, that's why. by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Of course they'll also have to realize at some point that maybe replacing 5 guys that made 20k$ a year with a 2 million dollar system wasn't such a cunning plan

      This system doesn't replace 5 guys making $20k a year. (A company with a shipping department that small would likely never be able to afford the $2 million in the first place.)
  5. yea well if those robots are so great by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...why can't they PACK the items too?

  6. I think I've seen this somewhere before... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hasn't Newegg being organizing its factories like this for years?

    1. Re:I think I've seen this somewhere before... by paulgrant · · Score: 1

      No. The organization is similar, the use of robotics is not. They use bins and conveyor systems. same principle though.

  7. Will noly slow things down. by dotancohen · · Score: 0

    ...the robots move shelves with popular items closer to the workers... That's going to have to be a huge warehouse to make any kind of difference. I've worked in warehouses, and the limiting factor in delivering items was often finding them. Thus, the more popular an item was the faster it got delivered, as I knew right where it would be. Moving things around based on what's popular this week will only slow down the workers by forcing them to check where things are on a map- something that probably will take more time than actually walking the average hundred meters or so to the proper shelf.
    --
    It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
    1. Re:Will noly slow things down. by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Since it's the robots which fetch the items, the workers don't need to know where they are. The robots should have no problems finding the items, provided the programmers have done their job right.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    2. Re:Will noly slow things down. by mal0rd · · Score: 1

      You are missing the point. When humans have to find items moving them around frequently will slow things down. But robots have no trouble keeping track of any number of items and their location. So the "locating an item" time becomes constant and small. Now only transport time becomes important and minimizing it is the goal. So the item locations are decided just to minimize that time. Notice the workers don't need to find the items in this warehouse - the robots do it for them.

    3. Re:Will noly slow things down. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd assumed the reorganization of placement was purely to move commonly retrieved items closer to their final destination to speed pick-up by the _robot_ workers. In non-busy periods the robots can move popular items closer to the packing point so that when they are required a (small) amount of time could be saved in the transportation. A bit like defragmenting.

    4. Re:Will noly slow things down. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I can only imagine if someone hacks into system and does DROP DATABASE ITEM_LOCATIONS; or it gets borked for some other reason.

      No one would know where the items are located currently and backups containing those locations might be hours old. This system really needs some serious redundancy.

    5. Re:Will noly slow things down. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >When humans have to find items moving them around frequently will slow things down.

      You solve this problem with a handheld computer, not a robot.

    6. Re:Will noly slow things down. by dotancohen · · Score: 2, Funny
      --
      It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
  8. The warehouses are not the reason for waiting by owlstead · · Score: 1

    Most of the time, if I have to wait for something to be delivered, it is not the warehouses that I am waiting for:
    1) the package delivery service does not have a pick-up point to where you can send your item - yes, currently living alone;
    2) the item has to be ordered by the online shop.
    This might speed up some things, but they don't remove the real problems. It might be interesting for other reasons than delivery time, or when near real time delivery is in order (e.g. Ikea like concept, without the hassle of having to pick up stuff from the shelves).

    Come to think of it, a hardware store with robot delivery might be nice.

    1. Re:The warehouses are not the reason for waiting by u38cg · · Score: 1

      Yes, but making warehouses more efficient will encourage companies to outsource their logistics operations to outfits with this kind of capability. Economies of scale will then make it possible to fill your order from stock more often. As for delivery, that too is fast improving with the sheer weight of online ordering these days.

      --
      [FUCK BETA]
  9. I've seen something like this by Biotech9 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I used to work for a major pharma company that had a big plant in Ireland. They had a massive totally automated warehouse, with one spider in it that could pick up any pallet and deliver it to almost anywhere in the plant in minutes. Inside the warehouse was strictly off limits, no space at all for human traffic. It had a few teething problems, but it did what 20ish people used to do in a fraction of the time.

    This was 4 years ago, so not sure how cutting edge the technology is...

    1. Re:I've seen something like this by xaxa · · Score: 1

      At a careers fair at my university on Wednesday there was a company doing these systems. I asked about it, I think the new thing is improved AI so the robots know where to put the most commonly used things. They had lots of conveyors and lifts moving stuff round all the time. The company was based near London.

    2. Re:I've seen something like this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The robotic system is also faster because the entire warehouse can adapt, in real time, to changes in demand by having the robots move shelves with popular items closer to the workers

      Well, this kind of optimization doesn't require robots. The placement of items is computer-optimized in any large warehouse even when the truck is driven by a human. In fact, the truck driver even gets "gps"-like instructions on where to drive in the warehouse. Using robot is fine when your items are all boxed. Humans are better when you need to pick items smaller than a box, such as one item out of a box.

      A truck driving robot is very expensive to aquire and maintain, so don't worry about warehouse workers losing their jobs just yet. This will only appeal to the very largest logistics companies like wal-mart for quite some time.

    3. Re:I've seen something like this by timeOday · · Score: 1

      This was 4 years ago, so not sure how cutting edge the technology is...
      Robotic forklifts are nothing new. What's is new, at least to me, is the "swarming" idea here. The robots don't service pre-specified areas of the warehouse, or work for pre-specified human operators; several can work together to fulfill an order and are dynamically tasked to people depending on who needs what next. If a robot breaks down, apparently the others just work around it. These robots don't fetch individual items; instead the system manages a mix of items in containers, and then fetch a mix of containers to fill an order most rapidly. They also don't put containers in specified places; instead they automatically re-distribute the warehouse contents over time to put requested items near packers. Finally, the robots themselves are very small and cheap.

      I'm not enough of an expert to know how much of this is novel, but it's far beyond "get me the palette from location x,y,z" that I have seen previously.

  10. Re:Very promising. [MY ASS] by eiapoce · · Score: 1
    Sorry for the harsh title. But let me explain the point. As quoted:

    I wouldn't really mind being one of the experts while freeing up a large portion of the population to do whatever they want. We've got that allready and it is called unemployment. You can substitize a little but it won't work on a long term with the current world economy. So sorry to interrupt this candid vision with reality:

    * Mobile Phones also meant work can reach you anywhere
    * Email and lotus notes give your bosses the unheard power to assign you tasks to work on weekends
    * Globalization makes white collars work around the clock (you start working with asian markets and end up late in the evening waiting for the americans to wake up).
    * Any advanced economy has attracked masses poor migrants looking to exploit the welfare.
    * Along with immigration comes added unemployemt rates, degradation of salaries, rise on taxes for maintaining the welfare and the worsening of work conditions.

    This is already happened in complete ignorance of our and your politicians. Now if a robotic society is going to develop I can't see a way to get benefits in this economic and politic scenario. Unemploed people will be kept at the brim of starvation and employed ones will be exploited to the limits.
  11. Risk worth it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Humans may go on strike (which is almost never a random event) and individuals may get sick, but robotic systems WILL break, and then you're dead in your tracks. Isn't this what happened to Komplett when they tried to change to a completely automatic warehousing system?

    Scenario: It's the week before christmas, the most important time for your business. Your fully automatic warehousing system just broke down and things are at a complete standstill, and the expertise to fix it is busy elsewhere. Enjoy the holidays!

  12. Maybe they can learn from AMD and Intel? by Laglorden · · Score: 1

    They algorithms for fetching stuff seems very much like the problems processor engineers have to face when developing a processor. The goal is to get something from memory (warehouse) as quickly as possible.

    L1 cache (the box directly in front of the worker) should be used as best as possible. Prefill orders not received yet with this (box of chocholates always present on Valentine's day)
    L2 cache is the isle closet the the workers, have a dedicated (fast) robot always waiting here.
    L3 (or memory) is the warehouse.

    Memory (or disk) is the rest of the world.

    Anyway, I don't beleive the long wait-time for the customer is the time it takes for the worker to actually pack the stuff, so this isn't a way for us to get stuff faster it's just a way to get more efficient "work" done per labour unit "employee"

    1. Re:Maybe they can learn from AMD and Intel? by Pingmaster · · Score: 1

      you don't need to put 'work' and 'employee' in quotes, because that is exactly what they're trying to accomplish. They want to have the capability to fill more orders without having to hire more people. Considering that one robot is probably comparatively priced to a forklift operator + forklift over a couple years (given that licensed fork lift operators in North America make $15-$20/hour). The other advantage is that these robots can carry a bigger stack of pallets, and the pallets can both be stacked higher and closer together (since the robots only need on lane, and each lane only needs to be as big as the pallet), increasing the capacity of warehouses; which then allows the company to build less warehouses, again saving money.

  13. BHV's "Zebulons" by Bruno Lussato in the 70' by franois-do · · Score: 1
    Those interested in the history of robotic delivery might be interested by the experience of Bruno Lussato for the warehouse of the BHV store in the 70's : automatic Fenwicks called "Zebulons" which were supposed to ensure automatic operation of deliveries and also communicated with one another in order to avoid collisions.

    However the experience came perhaps too soon : the minicomputers on board did not have the reliability that one can expect today from any mainboard with its associated processor, and generated bigger inducted costs than expected, so the zebulons were abandoned some years later.

    http://www.google.fr/search?hl=fr&q=lussato+z%C3%A9bulons

    --
    Signature omitted in order to save space. Thanks for your understanding.
  14. This Is Because of Immigration Laws by eldavojohn · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Eliminate all menial labor without drastically increasing the quality of education would result in massive unemployment and unrest, I fear. Yes, people would still be having trouble with their DSL, but as a result of the riots. You know, I couldn't disagree with you more. You know why this technology is "suddenly" popping up even though we've really had it for a long time? How about the recent crack down on 'illegal aliens' in the states? This is going to spread everywhere because the cheap labor that was once here will slowly dry up. The people who traveled to farms to work in the summer, they can't do that anymore. You should expect to see these robots of various sizes and kinds show up on farms too to off set our loss of cheap labor.

    I don't really look at Mexicans as merely cheap labor, I'm just speaking in very frank terms of what anti-immigration laws and fence building are going to do to us.

    If you are still productive from the result of a robot and the person who used to have that job can now go to school, I only see more skilled workers in the workforce. People aren't as stupid as you think they are, they just haven't had a chance to go to school. There may be a generation or two that adapt badly to this new model but I welcome the future where a farming family's children now have the option to go to school because the farm can be just as efficient and producing as it would be without the children.

    Corporate farms are going to love this even though they'll hate the initial cost of the machines being greater than the poor Mexican wages.
    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:This Is Because of Immigration Laws by keraneuology · · Score: 1

      How about the recent crack down on 'illegal aliens' in the states?

      Newsflash: when robots and machines result in less expense to produce produce they will be used. That simple. Once upon a time they used Manuel for manual labor in the wheat and cotton fields. Then along came machines and the farmers had a choice of a couple of machines that never needed rest and eliminate all of his HR problems. Coal mining requires a mere fraction of the labor once needed and has seen production gains on an order of magnitude. Pecans once had to be picked by hand, now they have that gizmo that simply shakes the tree and catches everything that falls out.

      The push for automated warehouses and such is inevitable and logical. Consider the meatpacking industry, magnet to the illegal immigrants. Once somebody figures out a way to build a butcher robot do you think for one second that all of the illegals won't suddenly find themselves out of a job? Or, in the immediate future, construction. Once they have the house-building fabrication devices or even true modular methods do you suppose for one instant that there will be a single thought of concern for the illegals?

      They are here because people are willing to give them money only because they are cheaper than the currently available alternatives.

      --
      If the g'vt kept the data on you that google does you'd better believe you'd be calling it "doing evil"
    2. Re:This Is Because of Immigration Laws by DaleGlass · · Score: 1

      No, I think you're misunderstanding what the grandparent is saying.

      What he's saying is that we had this tech for a long time, why is it suddenly starting to get used now? He says it's because of the crackdown on illegal immigrants. If the immigrant will work for $4 and hour, the native worker will ask for $7, and the robot's sales guy shows up and tells you it'll cost you an equivalent of a $6 an hour worker, who will you go with? The immigrant of course.

      Now as soon as you get rid of the immigrants, the robots come in. The legal labor asks higher than that, and so they still don't get hired. While you can hire immigrants for peanuts with a low startup cost, the robots aren't very attractive. But once that is gone, the robot suddenly becomes a very attractive option. And perhaps the cost of the initial installation is equivalent to $6 an hour, but as your business grows, the expansion of the hardware might bring it down to $3 an hour.

    3. Re:This Is Because of Immigration Laws by keraneuology · · Score: 1
      It is "suddenly" starting to get used now because the cost of installing/using this equipment is less than the cost of not using it. There are other factors as well - as more and more foreigners buy US companies what little shreds of employee loyalty will go out the window.

      Remember, the cost of insurance is going through the roof. These machines will ALWAYS win out because you don't need to pay for health care, you don't need to pay for mandatory sexual harassment training, you never have to worry that firing somebody will trigger a racial or age discrimination lawsuit, you'll never have to provide a pension, disability insurance, unemployment insurance, family leave, military leave or (and this is one of the big ones) unions.

      --
      If the g'vt kept the data on you that google does you'd better believe you'd be calling it "doing evil"
    4. Re:This Is Because of Immigration Laws by DaleGlass · · Score: 1

      Well, the legality of the worker in question is related with that.

      An illegal immigrant isn't going to get insurance, sue you, get a pension, etc. AFAIK, illegal immigrants here are paid with cash, which means no taxes to pay either.

      That sort of thing is dangerous to try with a legal resident, as they can sue you, while an illegal immigrant probably would get deported before anything happened.

    5. Re:This Is Because of Immigration Laws by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "There may be a generation or two that adapt badly to this new model but I welcome the future where a farming family's children now have the option to go to school because the farm can be just as efficient and producing as it would be without the children."

      Who is going to support these now unemployed people and their children going through school? Your model seems to assume that we will suddenly wise up and start really investing in our national school system, in such a way that poor former-farmers and former-laborers children will be able to truly benefit. Will we also have a massive redistribution of wealth or growth in new job sectors in such a way that the "generation or two" will be kept off the streets?

    6. Re:This Is Because of Immigration Laws by TempeTerra · · Score: 1

      It seems that you and I think along the same lines, but I'm less optimistic. The question is: when all the farmers' kids can go to college, will we have college-level jobs available for all of them? If not, then who will support them?

      Oh, and regardless of immigration laws I think that over the long term globalisation will redistribute money from rich countries to poor countries so that cheap immigrant labour will no longer be an option.

      --
      .evom ton seod gis eht
  15. But firstly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Have they outlined the rules on office/warehouse relationships, e.g. robot love?

  16. Hey, robots come help me home too, please. by Lawr1984 · · Score: 1

    I needed these just a few days ago so I hope they build something for my home pretty soon. I prefer entertainment rather doing the regular work...

  17. You're missing the promise by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

    See, the idea of using robots to do repetitive tasks is to free up the population for other tasks, and to increase productivity. For those who bemoan that we appear to be working more even though we're getting more efficient, I might point out that we are working during our prime to support a life of complete leisure at a later stage in our life. 100 years ago, nearly all people worked until they were either physcally unable to, or they died - which often occurred in rapid succession. We really are working less, it just doesn't feel like it to those who are currently working. We get a second bonus that our lifestyle is significantly more comfortable that it was 100 years ago. The ability for me to keep my environment at a constant 70F, sleep on an amazingly soft but supportive bed, eat all manner of foods that would have been completely unavailable, and travel to remote destinations faster than it used to take many just to get to a city seems like a pretty magnificent feat of efficiency.

    I'll be honest - I could probably work about 10 hours a week and still live better than my great-grandfather. Of course, living in a modern world on $25,000 a year would certainly preclude a lot of the comforts of modern society, but it would still be better than 100 years ago.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  18. Good thing ALSO move items further away! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...robots move shelves with popular items closer to the workers (pdf), where the shelves can be quickly retrieved while items that aren't selling are gradually moved farther away.

    I don't know about you all, but I'm sure glad they ALSO move less popular items further away. Talk about stating the obvious! If the robots kept moving the more popular items closer to the workers, eventually the workers, merchandise, and robots would all become trapped in a rip of the time-space continuum, undoubtedly resulting in the melding of robots and humans into "one" just like BSG or The Borg on Star Trek.
    1. Re:Good thing ALSO move items further away! by Moderatbastard · · Score: 0

      undoubtedly resulting in the melding of robots and humans into "one" just like BSG or The Borg on Star Trek.
      You seem to think that wouldn't totally rock to an awesome degree.
      --
      1/3 of jokes get modded OT. If you get the joke, mod 1 in 3 insightful/interesting/underrated to restore karma balance.
  19. Re:Very promising. [MY ASS] by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Your luddite side fails to understand the irony that you just typed that on a computer and sent it over the internet.

    At the end of the day, if more monkies can do less work an produce more stuff, we'd be in better shape. Sure, government will always want to find ways to tax more, but that doesn't mean they always will be able to. The printing press is what killed the monarchy and allowed the banks to become central banks; the internet is killing mass governmental democracy by questioning it to the very roots. Look at Ron Paul; that's mostly internet people. Eventually, it will be replaced with a corporate system centered around mass production of product where free speech is enforced by the fact nobody is around to kill it and the nature of reality itself is king.

    You want to make the company you work for pay you good? Organize. SEC has their profit reports, if they're reporting massive profits while their workers get jack and shit, then form a union or better yet, if you're skilled labor like IT, find yourself another job. In IT, if you're good Merit and good communications skills are all you need to get places in the world and you can see 50% pay raise per year for 10 or 20 years straight if you do it right and work your ass off. Unionization illegal? Well that's TOO BAD because we've got GUNS and we're WILLING TO USE THEM! No cop is going to risk his ass for that shit. Do you think companies in the 20's didn't fire employee's for organizing labor? They were fucking terrified and the same tricks then are being used now and as people get more and more fed up they're going to organize and the companies are going to lose because they won't have the numbers.

    Sure, some unions are shit like teachers unions. Don't mean you can't exercise your freedom and teach your kid on your own.

    Stop whining and take some goddamn initiative!

  20. Who will terminate the manual laborers? by Overzeetop · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This is what's lost on these discussions. We're eliminating jobs for those in the manual labor sector. What? Train them for something else? I suggest looking at my sig. There are a lot of people out there who are simply untrainable. The gap between the top 20% of the population and the bottom 20% of the population in the ability to excel at modern, efficient methods an techniques is just astounding. In an agrarian world, being dumb may hold you back a bit, but you can still make a living and be productive. We're eliminating that class. The result is that, with a compressed intellectual range of "valuable" occupations, the disparity in cognitive ability has widened relative to the scale by which we measure. That was terribly worded...um...if the job market in the early 20th century had lots of positions for people who's cognitive skill set ranged from a "3" to a "10" on a scale of 1-10, the job market today has the majority in the range of "5" to "10", and we're moving towards the "7" to "10" range. The further we go, the more people will not be competent to do the jobs available. Now that's okay, because with efficiencies and replacement of lower skilled jobs by machines means we need fewer people at that level. At the same time that's a problem because you just can't go and kill all those folks who are no longer needed. Ideally we could get rid of those in society as we replaced them with machines. Otherwise they become unemployable wards of the state, or turn to illegal means to support themselves.

    Because I feel I'm near the top of the cognitive scale*, robots don't bother me. They mean that I get things faster, more accurately, and probably cheaper. But there are a lot of people who are going to be idled by this type of technology. And the world population is still growing, so there will be even more at the lower end of the scale (in numbers - it's simple statistics), and fewer jobs for them. It's a bit odd, but there has recently been a big backlash over the eugenics movement that occurred in the mid 20th century in the US, mostly because it's politically incorrect to talk of such things. We are getting so efficient that we can more easily support those at the bottom. The question is...do we want to?

    *Please don't give me shit about that comment - practically everyone on /. is near the top.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    1. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by bhima · · Score: 1

      I'm not saying I agree with you (I haven't given it a whole lot of thought) but you are not the only one thinking along those lines. The guy that cooked up "How Stuff Works", Marshall Brain has also been down this path. He collected his thoughts into a story he calls "Robotic Nation": http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

      Having read all of this some time ago I came to the conclusion that this scenario requires some of the more fucking stupid self destructive elements of American culture to remain unchanged throughout a societal change at least as profound as the industrial revolution. Given American's general propensity to cling to ass stupid shit which isn't especially in their self interest I'm not saying that's improbable... I'm just saying it's a profound comment on cultures.

      In the same way what Mr. Brain describes can only happen like that in the United States... it couldn't, for example, happen in Europe be they don't the same conditions. So what ever happens elsewhere would have to be really different, if only owing to the beginning cultural differences.

      --
      Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    2. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by bfsmith9 · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Oh, wow. This isn't directed at you personally, but at what you said.

      That's a great argument for eugenics, sure. Sounds like good Nazi-speak, really.

      It's not that people are stupid, it's just that they're written off. I remember when we were shedding jobs right and left in the '90s, and there was all kinds of noise coming out of the Clinton administration about retraining people and about "knowledge-based" jobs or something like that. So yeah, industry felt more free, I think, to fire people and run overseas to find all the cheap cheap practically-slave labor in places like China or India (they were going to do that anyway, right - this just gave them better press). And you'd see people training to become IT people or whatever they were going to do in the "new economy."

      Of course, trouble was there just weren't the jobs for these people in the new economy, period. Just like you're saying, these people have become superfluous to U.S.-based corporations.

      And it's not just these people. Tell me that people training in IT to often have a lot of trouble finding a job.

      It's not about jobs, it's about profits.

      But come on - "... you just can't go and kill all those folks who are no longer needed. Ideally we could get rid of those in society as we replaced them with machines." Ideally? Hmmm...tell that to all these people who aren't able to get work. Tell the guy working two or three jobs to keep his family afloat that we want robots and computers to do his jobs, and ideally we'd just like to get rid of him. Heil Hitler, right?

      Hope there's not too many people smarter than you concentrating their wealth at the top of the pile (and from the sounds of it, there just might be, buddy...) They might want to get rid of you once they can figure out how to program and sysadmin without you.

      In the meantime, if you do have any problems, think about India! Business is booming. I'm sure you can find a nice job there. And if salaries become too burdensome there (don't want too many programmers demanding 8 or 9 dollars an hour) - there's always Africa!

    3. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by Peganthyrus · · Score: 2, Interesting

      IMHO a lot of them are "stupid" because they've been trained to be stupid by the schools and culture - when kids are taught to sit down, shut up, do endless repetitive work, and not ask any questions, they stop learning. Kids are learning machines, but the schools are anti-learning.

      We raise people to be meat robots, and it's only a small percentage that refuse. We keep treating them as meat robots in their jobs. When they stop having to be a meat robot all the time... some will sink into indolence, but how many will start to get bored, and start doing more interesting things?

      --
      egypt urnash minimal art.
    4. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by edlerk · · Score: 1

      What should society do with people which have cognitive abilities in the 1-5 range out of 10 since they are becoming less and less useful in the practical roles within society? What can those without effective abstract thought do that machines, designed by the thinkers and builders among us, cannot? Even a dull person will be much better at arranging flowers, artistic cooking, ornamental gardening or anything that requires seeing/producing beauty than an algorithm. Perhaps a modern peasantry is in order. They would benefit from the wonders of modern production freeing them to employ creative talents which benefit society even though they do not require abstract thought. 1) Encourage / retrain them to perform useful work rather than dumb manual labor. If we are ever going to advance, we need thinkers and builders not just artists. Even a mediocre engineer can help someone who sees more clearly. 2) Realize that there are useful roles in society that do not revolve around production and efficiency and encourage / retrain them to fill those roles. -> Is the city drab? Fill it with art and parks and whatever else will give it beauty and interest. -> What do you hear? Only traffic? Musicians could fill the streets. -> Too much oil is burned to transport food? C02 levels rising? Hire gardeners to grow food on rooftops, balconies, and on the mesh works covering buildings. Make the cities entirely green and make them produce their own food via 'hand raised' means. -> Sick of eating prefab food? Hire cooks who become experts at producing the most healthy and tasty foods. 3) No matter what make sure that they are busy! People who are idle get into trouble.

    5. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by Overzeetop · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I'm not saying I'm for it, I'm making an observation and saying that there's discontinuity between the workplace which will exist and the workforce which is available. Personally, I think humans would be better off with between 1% and 10% of their numbers...above that it's simply unsustainable. And, since you'll probably ask - yes, my family has fewer children than adults.

      Stupid. Written off. Underprivileged. Poorly motivated. Call them whatever you like. There is a large segment of the population who - for whatever reason - have very poor problem solving and independent thinking skills. I have worked in enough jobs with really smart people to know that I'm no genius. I know lots of people smarter than I am. But, wow, you get out of some of those high end fields and you'd be amazed at what passes for average.

      My daughter just entered school, and I've met a lot of her friends, and seen a lot of what these kids do. I am absolutely appalled at how little their parents seem to value their education. Here's an example - every day the kids take home a worksheet that shows what they've done, and what they are planning to do. There's one kid in the class who, after a month, had 20 of these papers in her backpack. She's a pretty smart kid, and seem to be interested in learning. I asked her why she still had the papers in her backpack, and she told me it was because her parents never took them out. So, after a month of school, these parents have no idea what she's been doing, and apparently don't care. Lest you think they didn't know, the class had two orientations with the parents - one group session, and one in person with the teacher - in both sessions they were explicit in the need for the parent to look at the progress sheets each night, both for information on what was happening in school and to help encourage the work their children were doing.

      I've decided that more than half the parents just don't care, and I live in a pretty "care oriented" area, with many people being professionals and university professors. School is more than just daycare - it's an absolution of all responsibility to the technical education of their children.

      So don't get me wrong - I'm not out to eliminate some theoretical lower class, but there is - without question - a growing disparity between what we need to continue our "progress" and "efficiency" and the workforce that expects us to pay wages which feed, clothe, and house them. Hell, I think there is a traditional belief that people are just there to produce labor - like having a dozen children so you can work the farm. As a society, we seem to have intellectually moved beyond human muscle as a machine, but we haven't really moved away from the child-rearing and teaching methods that is geared towards producing mindless machines. Television and movies have exacerbated the problem because those who "learned" to be mindless machines now see how the elite live (or, rather, how someone fictitiously portrays how the elite would live if they never had to work) and expect that that lifestyle is owed to them for the mindless work they do.

      I would be happy if everyone who didn't plan on focusing their energies on raising independent, critical thinking children would just not have them, and those who do would do so with a single child, 2 if they felt they had the resources (not just money - resources like time, patience, capacity for love and encouragement, etc.) to do do so. Having more than two (intentionally) is, imho, simply selfish. Just keeping to those teachings would get the population back to something manageable and sustainable in 150 years or so. No - don't even bring up China. I'm not talking about some "one child" rule, I'm talking about the population - every individual person - deciding that the best thing for everyone is to do this of their own accord. To come to the realization that having children does not make you an adult; that God will not love you more for all the new children you have; that children cost a lot of money to raise properly ($300k

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    6. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by spinlight · · Score: 1

      Mod this person up!
      One of the major issues with Western Culture is our overemphasis on productivity, efficiency, and industry.
      There are no food shortages today, only problems with distribution. Why? Because it is not profitable to get the food to the people who need it.
      Energy? Medicine? Space? For which of these problems is a horde of unskilled laborers a solution?
      Which of these problems is a horde of unskilled humans exacerbating, and in what ways?
      If we can offset the burden placed on society by non-contributing individuals with super-efficient robots, what's the problem?
      The only possible objection to giving "20% of the population" a life of leisure is fear of what they would do with it, or a moral objection to the fact that they are not contributing.
      We have been trained to accept that profitability and efficiency are the pinnacles of human existence.
      We see the statement that "20% of the population is out of work" as a problem. Why? Why are we afraid of what these people would do with their free time? Because they consume resources. What dictates the value of these resources? Availability. What dictates availability? Labor. What solves the labor problem? Robots.
      In some ways, this may be an oversimplification, but it seems to me that most of the barriers to a utopian society (in the purest sense, rather than the satirical one) lie in us clinging to our paradigm of individual and societal productivity.
      We are obsessed with a society that stratifies everyone. I bet that there are a lot of people out there who could do amazing things with their lives if they didn't have to worry about the daily grind. There are also a lot of people out there who would commit crimes or do *gasp* nothing with their time. Which would make it just like our present society.
      Who cares if everyone is out producing something or making a contribution? Why is it a burden to the rest of society if 20% of the population stops participating in it?
      Presently, the answer to this question is that we need their cheap labour, which is, IMHO, rather twisted when you think about it. If we can replace them with robots, awesome! They will be a generation of individuals who get the (unique?) experience of being able to do whatever they want with their lives.

      --
      "I do not avoid women, Mandrake . . . but I do deny them my essence." - Gen. Ripper
    7. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by bogjobber · · Score: 1
      It's not that people are stupid, it's just that they're written off.

      No, there really are stupid people in the world. I don't really know why I would have to point that out. And as the OP pointed out, jobs are getting more complex while automation is driving out the bottom whatever % of people who simply don't have the skills to compete in a modern economy. Those are facts.

      So instead of Godwinning the thread like a douchebag because what he said might be non-PC, why not add to the conversation? This is a real problem. And it's not like he was suggesting eugenics as the best idea. But what do we do with people who, for whatever reason, can't really contribute in a society?

    8. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      And the world population is still growing, so there will be even more at the lower end of the scale (in numbers - it's simple statistics)

      No, actually it isn't 'simple statistics'... Because while world population is growing (overall), the rate of increase in developed countries has dropped dramatically - in some places in Europe it has already dropped below replacement rate, and in others the curves point plainly to a peak in midcentury and a drop thereafter.
    9. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by DeadChobi · · Score: 1

      Let me know if you need a secretary of education or a vice president. I wholeheartedly agree with you.

      --
      SRSLY.
    10. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by TheGoodSteven · · Score: 1

      I disagree with your intelligence scale analogy. Being intelligent or having the ability to learn is not as simple as that. My roommate in college was extremely computer savvy and would be labeled toward the 10 end of the scale by most, however had to call home because he needed help figuring out how to change his sheets. I happen to have a career where I work with my hands. I could teach you how to do my daily activities in a matter of minutes, but you would have to do them for the next 5 years to do them anywhere as near as well as I do. My kind of job however, can easily be replaced with either machines or a horde of Mexicans that can divvy my tasks up amongst themselves and get it done quicker, and more importantly, cheaper. By eliminating jobs, at the lower end of the spectrum on your scale, you create a large population that must be supported by the rest, who will not be able to live outside of government housing, and who are at higher risk of turning to crime. I believe that 'idle hands are the devil's tools' is especially applicable at this point in time. Also, don't forget that by freeing up a large portion of the population, a huge amount of competition for those top jobs is being created; you earn good money now, but falling wages will reach everybody. And also keep in mind that the majority of people never thought they could be replaced by machines or Mexicans.

    11. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by Kjella · · Score: 1
      Over the years we've eliminated more classes of manual labor than I can count, but we never seem to run out. I don't see much in terms of unemployment either, if this was really happening we'd see real price drops on low-end wages but far as I can tell they're not doing that. A lot of the time you need manhours to get things done, it may not be the brightest person you're talking to but he's better at it than you because he's doing this day out and day in. I could do a better job than him sure, but then I'd have to use time.

      It took me a little while to find but you may want to read up on the theory of Comparative advantage:

      In economics, David Ricardo is credited for the principle of comparative advantage to explain how it can be beneficial for two parties (countries, regions, individuals and so on) to trade if one has a lower relative cost of producing some good. What matters is not the absolute cost of production but the opportunity cost, which measures how much production of one good is reduced to produce one more unit of the other good. Comparative advantage is a key economic concept in the study of free trade. Basicly if you could be the best CEO and best secretary, you'd still hire a secretary because that leaves more time to being a CEO. It's really that simple.
      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    12. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by bfsmith9 · · Score: 1
      OK, so we agree that we're talking about a class of people here - people whose jobs are going away because of automation (among other reasons).

      There are various ways to structure economies - choices that are made. I think in this country choices are being made that result in more and more of the country looking like pockets of the Third World. For example, in 2004 the infant mortality rate in the U.S. was higher than that of Cuba. Going along with that, we have more and more people who are unable to earn a living wage for themselves and their families.

      The choices made for the U.S. economy, by U.S. corporations and politicians, have been to allow jobs to easily move to lower-wage regions, if not here then overseas. Other choices made in the past, forced to a large extent by labor pressure, have been to allow U.S. workers decent jobs with a livable wage, eight-hour workdays, benefits, provisions for retirement, etc.

      I think automation and job "exports" are two sides of the same coin - do what you can to increase profits and also reduce the control workers have over corporate decisions. There's nothing wrong with automation in of itself. It's just a tool, to be used for good or ill. But so far in the U.S. it's mostly been used to de-skill workers. It would be one thing it automation were used for labor-saving such that everyone could enjoy more leisure, but that's not how it's been designed. Instead, it's used to increase profits and control.

      Unless we make decisions to give people a decent education (generally, I don't think they get that in today's public schools) and some hope for the future in terms of employment, we will continue to have people who aren't going to be able to make it. And like I said, it isn't just blue-collar people that are being affected by such technological marvels.

      And I'm afraid that no one at the top of the food chain is going to 'give' these people very much. They are going to have to take what they need themselves. That's the way it's always happened - look at the labor movement, civil rights, the feminist movement.

    13. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by ta+ma+de · · Score: 1

      Just one word to follow -- Singularity.

    14. Re:Who will terminate the manual laborers? by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

      I'm thinking of asking Dick Cheney to be on my ticket. It will get my the nutcase right wing folks, and then I'll lock him in his safe until the term is over.

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  21. Seems pretty pointless to me by ammoQ · · Score: 1

    I guess the people who invented that funny little robots have yet to see a real big automated warehouse. My biggest issue with this new system is that is seems mostly twodimensional. Compare that to automated warehouses with 20 or so storage levels. Those warenhouses are also operated by robots, of course, though they run on rails and move the pallets to conveyor belts which finally transport the goods to the workers. It's not exactly rocket science to design such a system to keep the workers busy all the time, so it's pretty hard to believe that this new toy can be any faster.
    But without the key figures about the speed of the system (the brochure omits them), it's hard to tell.

  22. "temps" by zogger · · Score: 1

    Seems like a business opportunity for the robot makers, have temp robots. Like you pointed out, not worth it if it isn't being used all year, but if they could have robots that were capable of learning a few different businesses and trucked to site/easily moved for several different clients.

    1. Re:"temps" by macdo10 · · Score: 1

      I like it :-)

      But I'm afraid that the trucking of those particular robots will be done in flying cars.
      And how many robots can I call at 5pm to start at 8am the next day without paying extra money?

  23. OLD Technology by Doc+Austin · · Score: 1

    Folks, this is OLD technology. Companies have been doing this for 15 years or more. The depot that refurbishes and upgrades the Army's M1A1 Tank uses exactly this system. It is faster, safer, more accurate, and can operate 24/7. No coffee breaks, no sick days, no union strikes, no team meetings... But let's remember, there are still humans involved in other aspects of the supply chain. Frankly, I don't understand some of the discussions that bemoan the loss of forklift operator and sorter jobs.

  24. Corpus Christi Army Depot has had this for years by mwilliamson · · Score: 1

    It's a big system called ASRS+ which combines a large highly-automated warehouse with a multitude of high-load bearing floor robots that drive around and transfer parts between the warehouse and the requesting party in the depot. CCAD is mostly a helicopter repair/refurb facility and because they service such a wide variety of aircraft, require an extensive inventory. These robots look vaguely like a pallet-jack on roids, without all the sci-fi robotic amenities. These bots drive about on their cute little trails making sorta a "beep, honk" as they go merrily about their business, that is until they run into some dumbass who gets in the way. Then they safely stop, so I guess they even follow part of Asimov's 1st law of robotics. ;-) Amusingly, if someone manages to stop one at a critical juncture, the whole lot of them shut down.

    If my writing today sounds like dis-coherent ramblings, please realize I haven't had my coffee yet and I was up to 3 am fishing and have a cooler-full of large trout to prove it, but I've actually seen what I'm describing in person as I worked for a university's agency's subcontractor's contractor out there (or something like that) back in 2001.

  25. Re:Bread and Circuses by vertinox · · Score: 1

    Eliminate all menial labor without drastically increasing the quality of education would result in massive unemployment and unrest, I fear. Yes, people would still be having trouble with their DSL, but as a result of the riots.

    I've debated this in my own head for a while because even though I have a job that maybe the mid-range of jobs that will get replaced by automation, it will eventually.

    The key here is economic forces and the cost of living and entertainment costs. In America most of the jobs have gone service industry anyways since we have shipped all our manufacturing jobs overseas. More automation just means more of that.

    The key to the question about the riots in such a transition period is that if a person can raise a family with the income of one who works at Wal Mart. Of course, if all products and energy costs were at "Wal Mart" prices then it wouldn't be a problem. Unlike the labor strikes on the 19th and 20th centuries people have great means to entertaining themselves with foot ball on there 50" plasma or the latest Halo on Xbox360.

    I mean the Roman empire didn't have riots because people were unemployed and had nothing to do except eat bread and watch stuff at the Colosseum. The had riots once the bread ran out, the shows stopped, and the barbarians invaded because the Roman Emperor couldn't afford an army anymore.

    The main goal of robotics is to solve all three or make it cheap enough that it is a moot point that you work at Walmart but you can still afford your 50" tv.

    Of course eventually AI might get good enough to replace the people who design the TV and work at Walmart, but at that point if there are riots the robots will probaly be able to deal with a scenario by force, but hopefully someone would have the brains to program the AI in charge of manufacturing and distribution of goods to give it away for free and support humanity rather than euthanise it.

    --
    "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
    -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
  26. Decades old technology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Back in 1983 I joined a grocery store company as a programmer in the Washington, D.C. area that had already been running their frozen-food warehouse like this for a few years. The software was written in-house, accepted new pallets of frozen food items, placed them in empty slots in the warehouse, remembered where they were and "picked" the items as stores needed them on a FIFO basis. In this zero-degree (farenheit) storage environment workers worked 15 minutes on/15 minutes off. This system allowed the workers to stay outside in the balmier 32-degree "assembly" area where they would take the picked items as they came down a conveyer and stack them on pallets for distribution to the individual stores. The system was unique in that the robots were not guaranteed to us to work in this cold environment but we took a gamble and it paid off. We used to give tours to food retailers on a regular basis on the system itself. It was always fun to go in and watch the driverless stackers moving pallets around the warehouse. Because it wasn't humans pulling product we didn't have to worry about stacking like products near one another, the system knew where the oldest version of any particular product was located and retrieved it as necessary.

  27. Defrag? by AtomicSnarl · · Score: 1

    The robotic system is also faster because the entire warehouse can adapt, in real time, to changes in demand by having the robots move shelves with popular items closer to the workers (pdf), where the shelves can be quickly retrieved while items that aren't selling are gradually moved farther away.
    I wonder how long it takes to defrag the entire warehouse. Heaven help them if it's a bubble sort. B-Tree perhaps? Oh -- and what about lost clusters?
    --
    Pacifist paratroopers yell, "Ghandi!" when they jump.
  28. new freedom has arrived by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I, for one, greet our Robotic Warehouse-operating Overlords! Let us hope that they won't be forming Labour Unions and demanding better working conditions any time soon.

  29. I did this! by zogger · · Score: 1

    Doing the hunter/gatherer thing. What started out as a nice camping trip and hike just kept expanding for a few years. It was a megahoot! I think of it as my hands on nature/biology/primitive engineering education. About like that part in Forest Gump where he goes running and just keeps going. At times it was hard, but for the most part I had a lot of free time. Winters obviously were the hardest, but not bad once you got the techniques down, shivering is a great inducement for getting creative with the local materials for shelter. What I got from it is immense, but if I had to pick the top idea, it was that our modern civilization takes clean water for granted, and it is the most important thing out there. Lack of clean potable water would be what collapses a civilization more than anything else I think. Droughts and aquifer pollution are big problems and should be a top priority for we humans in this century to "fix", to work out good methods for maintaining good supplies universally.

    1. Re:I did this! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      I used to go on camping trips for two months during summer holidays when I was at university (good times, sigh...). So I got plenty of respect for our ancestors who did not have our tools, clothes and modern camping equipment :)

  30. Re:distribution bots by Migraineman · · Score: 1

    The linked video is overloaded with "boxes on conveyors," but there's a gem in the middle. The warehouse distribution is handled by a vertical lift system, where material containers are handed-off to robots scurrying around on the roof. The bots grab a container, then move along an orthogonal mesh of rails. The bots don't appear to be constrained to any particular track, and it's quite impressive to watch them perform collision avoidance. Very cool.

  31. Deming and Henry Ford would be proud by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They'd like this kind of thing, keeps the unions out :)

  32. Is Boston becoming the Robotics Hub? by rukidding · · Score: 1, Interesting
    There are a lot of innovative robot companies popping up in the Boston area. IRobot and Kiva Systems are only a too. I actually just covered Kiva's warehouse solution on my blog http://www.sheeleytech.com/2007/10/kiva-mobile-fulfillment-system.html/

    From the www.sheeleytech.com article:

    The Kiva MFS is the beginning of the next generation enterprise solutions. Many current solutions are focusing on connecting departments with the needed information in a timely and useful manner. The current systems have improved the efficiency and decreased the cost of operations by optimizing the flow of information. The next generation of enterprise solutions will need to look toward robotic and intelligent systems that optimize the way we think and operate our businesses
    --
    ...
  33. Standard pattern. by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

    You know why this technology is "suddenly" popping up even though we've really had it for a long time?

    We've had individual bits of the technology since the (roughly) the mid 70's, but it takes years to integrate individual concepts into a functioning system.
     
    On the other hand, automated warehouses aren't "suddenly" popping up, the first attempts began in the early/mid 80's, and they started to spread in the early 90's. It wasn't until the dot-com revolution (with it's increased emphasis on central distribution to individual customers, I.E. Amazon) in the mid-late 90's however that market for such systems really began to grow. By 2000/2001 a variety of companies offered systems that could be virtually ordered 'off the shelf'. (But which were in reality custom built based on general templates.) Now truly off-the-shelf systems are starting to appear along with increasingly feature rich and functional systems.
     
    I.E. the progression has pretty much followed a normal path of development.
     
     

    How about the recent crack down on 'illegal aliens' in the states?

    Development on something like the Kiva system probably started five years ago - and more likely close to ten. (Quick check of the corporate website - founded in 2003, so I wasn't too far off.)
    1. Re:Standard pattern. by llefler · · Score: 1

      You give the dot com revolution entirely too much credit. What you are seeing is continuous improvement in manufacturing and supply chain logistics. JIT, KANBAN, and Lean manufacturing are much older than dot com. Affordable communications (of which the Internet as a whole is a driving force) is responsible as much as anything. It's all about taking the bumps out of the supply chain so you have smooth flow from manufacturer to end user.

      Now that B2B communications are streamlined, you have to look for new ways to improve efficiencies. 20 years ago I worked building a warehouse that was state of the art for it's time. It had miles and miles of conveyor, the workers picked orders for their retail stores and placed them on the conveyor, and the cartons weren't touched again until they were loaded on a truck. The floor had wires embedded in it so the forklifts could follow a path without running into anything. Although it still required an operator to select the correct bin location and retrieve the pallet.

      One of the large greeting card companies uses a 'lights out' warehouse. At a guess, they've been using it for at least a decade. And it uses robotic forklifts to move everything within it.

      The reason more companies are looking to warehouse automation is market competition. Like several others have mentioned, technical innovations are getting advanced enough and cheap enough that when weighed with labor costs, it's cheaper to automate. It has also become a business necessity to manage inventory as efficiently as possible. It's no longer possible to remain competitive if you are maintaining months of inventory.

      BTW, I wouldn't classify Amazon as central distribution. It would be like saying Google has a central data warehouse. Amazon does well for the same reason eBay does well; if you want to buy something, they can probably point you to a seller. It's not the distribution that is centralized, it's the consumer interface.

      --
      It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit. -- Harry Truman
    2. Re:Standard pattern. by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      You give the dot com revolution entirely too much credit. What you are seeing is continuous improvement in manufacturing and supply chain logistics. JIT, KANBAN, and Lean manufacturing are much older than dot com.

      Yes, I know those things are older than the dot com revolution - and, had you read my message, you'd have noted I stated the growth in these types of warehousing operations started before the dot com. But the dot com era saw a massive growth in demand in these types of operations. Partly for dot coms themselves, partly for brick 'n mortar operations that could now use (as you correctly point out) the 'net for communications.
       
      The same goes when you read my message and compare the timeline I give to the two warehouse examples you use.

      BTW, I wouldn't classify Amazon as central distribution. It would be like saying Google has a central data warehouse. Amazon does well for the same reason eBay does well; if you want to buy something, they can probably point you to a seller. It's not the distribution that is centralized, it's the consumer interface.

      You are completely incorrect - Amazon is a central distributor to multiple customers. Amazon eStores and associates are a peripheral business. Their business model couldn't be much more different from eBay's.
  34. This isn't going to replace that much. by davef139 · · Score: 1

    Working in the food distribution industry currently I can tell you this isnt that new of a product. While we do not operate anything like this but the convience of it would be unparalleled to what a human work can do. This particular item I've read reviews on NASA's use of them in the JPL where they have some 6000 odd parts they use for repairs and such. These are quite useful for varied part orders when your working with tens of 1000s of items. Where a customer may want 10 different things that can be stationed across a millon sq feet of distro center. I dont see these making it in a high moving Business to Business centers where most are ran by conveyers now and auto sorted and orders are large enough that time to grab all these different shelving would be offset. These do look like they might make an impact on internet sales distribution centers on smaller items. While the other robotic systems people seem to be talking about are ARAS systems that are robitic racking systems but they are track oriented with set leveling, the big difference is these are free to roam so to speak.

  35. nothing new by BigGerman · · Score: 1

    Mary Kay distribution center in Dallas had this 10 years ago. Worked on VAXes and 286s.

  36. Another piece of the puzzle by Animats · · Score: 2, Informative

    Slowly these things get better. Automatically guided vehicles have been around for about 25 years, and they keep improving. Early ones were guided by wires buried in the floor, and essentially ran on tracks. Now they have much more flexibility.

    About fifteen years ago there was a research project which used small forklift-like robots. These worked together to move loads too big for one to lift. Two such robots could pick up and move a couch. That idea needs to be revived.

    Quietly, the machinery for moving containers around ports is becoming automated. Several ports now have large, autonomous machines moving containers around. Antwerp has had this for years, but there the container sits on top of the AGV. The new approach is automated straddle cranes, the same cranes normally driven by humans. The article points out that the robots drive better than people; fuel and tire consumption are down 30%. The big container cranes themselves have had vision systems and LIDAR units for years; many are now fully automated.

  37. 15 Years? Try at least 38 years. by IvyKing · · Score: 1
    Rohr had an operating robotic wharehouse in 1969.


    You are right on the money is saying it is OLD technology.

  38. Defrag? Manual Override by the Hoomanz! by Tsu+Dho+Nimh · · Score: 2, Informative
    "I wonder how long it takes to defrag the entire warehouse. Heaven help them if it's a bubble sort. B-Tree perhaps? Oh -- and what about lost clusters?"

    I worked on the docs for something similar - a robot fetch to conveyer packing - and there are periodic "defrags" where humans with barcode scanners check each bin and inventory the contents, then adjust inventory to match what is REALLY in the bins. Robots are powered down for this :)

    The packers could also send a bin off to the Orwellian-sounding "readjustment station" if the bin they were sent by the robots didn't have what it was supposed to have.

  39. It's Not Just Intelligence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I like doing things with my hands. The problem these days is that even the most mildly physically demanding jobs have big image problems. Even a call-center agent is seen has having the better job than the landscape contractor who makes 10 times their salary. It's not only that physical jobs are disappearing; the existing ones are being shunned.

  40. Not so new tech. by joetheappleguy · · Score: 1

    Ingram Micro, a distributor to computer and technology retailers, has had very large automated warehouses for a while now.

    Even their returns system is automated. (Dubbed "Reverse Logistics")

  41. This is how postal workers end up going nuts... by servodave · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I worked in a 90% automated factory about a decade ago. We made automotive assemblies. There were maybe 25 fully automated robots on six lines that all served the function of creating this one product. In essence you could say that this was a 100,000 sq foot machine with maybe 50 humans feeding it.

    The initial cool factor of being payed well to load and babysit the robots never quite wears off, although you do acclimate to the situation. After a while and you could actually feel the pulse of the factory as each part was produced. It was sort of semi organic--maybe like being inside a Borg Cube ship or something. Two hours into the shift it was hypnotizing. If there was a breakdown of one of the robots everything just went to hell for a few minutes and it would take you a bit to pick up on it if you were involved. The result was like those stupid visa commercials where the guy pays cash and causes everything to explode around him. It was often hilarious to watch another production line self-destruct with shit flying everywhere and people freaking out over red lights and alarms.

    It was industrial and I hated every second of it and was bored. So was almost everyone else. However the people and management in that work environment were decent. In spite of feeding parts and sub-assemblies into robots all day long we were treated like people. Absolutely the best HR of anywhere I have ever worked in 20 years of working. You knew where you stood and it was 10 hours of work for 10 hours of decent pay. The floor bosses were competent and fair which I suppose made this possible.

    Overall that fact that you could have a decent discussion on something interesting on lunch break was the best part. With the exception of a couple of religious zealots, very few outright sociopaths were hired. That upper 20% mentioned in previous comments is what HR was after to staff the place. 200 of the 8,000 that applied were hired and sent to three months of focused College level training. Since it was Ann Arbor they probably would have 500 useful candidates a month if they were not excluding the chronic weed heads as a matter of course. The fact that this is 4% of the people who applied says that the top 20% don't often go after these jobs.

    At the time I just needed a job to get through college (and that was the story of many who made it in to the shop floor.) For the Midwest the selection of the people I was working with in a blue collar environment was amazing: Lots of momma-cries-every-night-over-junior-who-could-have-been-something type slackers or college dropouts (these were usually the SMART pot heads who knew how to get through the drug tests...) A Russian scientist and his wife (chemists, both of them, I think) who came here for a job. A completely and totally bat-shit bonkers former wife of a University professor. A recently fired accountant who was a (Mostly) job functional Alcoholic. A recent graduate of the masters program of the local Nuclear Engineering department who could not find a job in the market at the time. Many, many nurses or soon to be nurses. A few ex-armed forces skilled people trying to get their heads screwed on right after the first Golf war. A bunch of married folk trying to finish college.

    So, the thing is you can hire that upper 20% but these are the people who would probably get good jobs somewhere ANYWAY. It's also not going to be a very satisfying job or sustainable in that they know this is a waste of what they can do with their lives. At three years of the constant, mind numbing, droning of the machines I lasted longer than some. However I was clearly a BURNT OUT shell of a person by the time I left there. Scary, since I knew this was only a JOB to me and it still had that effect--others had decided to make this a career and were in for a long, long haul.

    The company had a '20 year and out' policy with full benefits and pension at the end. Considering what 3 years did to me and most of my co-workers, I think a person would end up like Tolkiens Gollum before they made it to that point. (Grasping at their gold retirement ring and whispering 'my...precious...' in their dark basement until they meet a truly horrible end due to their psychosis.)

  42. I oppose this. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    American consumers don't deserve robotic warehouses.

  43. Who will terminate the IP economy? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "This is what's lost on these discussions. We're eliminating jobs for those in the manual labor sector. What? Train them for something else? I suggest looking at my sig."

    I suggest training them in the new digital economy. Look at how well it's working for the pioneers.

    Yes folks, it's easier to undermine the IP economy by those who don't want to play by the rules.

    "We are getting so efficient that we can more easily support those at the bottom. The question is...do we want to?"

    Do WE have a choice?

    "*Please don't give me shit about that comment - practically everyone on /. is near the top."

    I'll give you shit because it isn't true, and mistaking your good fortune for everyone else's is a common mistake here.

  44. Who's left? by Trailwalker · · Score: 1

    If robotic machines replace workers on a massive scale, who will be able to buy the product? Killing off your consumer base is a nice exercise in corporate suicide.

    Whatever you think of the manual laborer, he is the one whose purchasing power sustains many companies.

    To put it another way, predators need prey. No prey, no predators.

  45. Karel the Robot by riegel · · Score: 1

    Reminds me of the Book Karel the Robot. It was a book that introduced programming as a little robot that was part of a room and could be instructed to do different things.

    http://karel.sourceforge.net/

    --
    http://p8ste.com - Web based Clipboard
  46. Who will terminate the illegal downloaders? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "But what do we do with people who, for whatever reason, can't really contribute in a society?"

    Put them in prison.

  47. Faster? by Nezumiiro · · Score: 1

    I work at a warehouse for a retail company with thousands of stores. My warehouse supplies about 400 stores. Our system lets us send individual items as well as entire cases. This system looks useful for small orders, but for large orders it actually looks rather slow to me. We use a conveyor system, but do not keep the boxes on the main belt. Instead they are kept on rollers, and when finished are then placed onto the system. I haven't been to many other warehouses, so I don't know how they work, but in ours there is very little searching around for product. The order pickers just move down a long aisle of racks with a printout of the store's order. This is of course all in numerical order and designed for zero backtracking until a single store is filled. This robot system just looks like it makes things easier. Not more efficient and definitely not faster.

  48. sure is by zogger · · Score: 1

    Sure is a wonderful experience. It's not the same only going out for a short time, you have to be in there for awhile for your brain to really adjust, to stop being civilized human and become just another animal living there, albeit higher on the brain scale. And yes again, what our ancestors did with primitive tech was pretty cool. I tell you something I found though that is *really* far out, you can take it as a believe or not deal. I ran across sign that there were other feral humans out there. Never say anyone, but saw the evidence. I know they were aware of *me* though. Your normal hunters and campers, etc, saw them a lot, although I stayed hidden, these other guys though, as far from me as I was from a lifelong manhattan resident in that environment. I found the basic rule of thumb is the quarter mile barrier, get much past a quarter mile from where you can drive a jeep or atv, you hardly ever see folks.

    Your brain just switches after a few seasons, in particular you start unconsciously using your nose a lot more. I remember just this epiphany one day, walking by some bushes, thinking, "smell grouse", then it dawned on me, smelling grouse in the bushes is really far out! I had switched to using my nose and hadn't really realized it. Now though, lost a lot of that, still better than most guys at fieldcraft, but no way close to what was happening back then. I still have that minute movement sense, use it all the time around here on the farm, can see tiny critters really far off, stuff like that, or notice the very subtle changes in the plants and trees, beyond just "ya, that's a yada yada bush or a whatever tree". It's really kinda neat and ya I miss those days too, glad I did that extended hike. Ate pretty good most of the time too probably the most organic and healthy eating there is eating all wild foods.

  49. Speaking as someone quite familiar with Kiva... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...their technology is novel in a number of ways.

    First is that their system deals with the combinatorial optimization problems of storage and retrieval. You get an order in from the web, and from that, the system figures out where to assemble the order. It also figures out where to store things initially, so it's very hands-off. Some of the people they have working on this have PhDs in fields relating to applied combinatorics.

    Second, their system is VERY easy to set up and tear down. You can take a large concrete slab under a roof and turn it into a fully functional warehouse in 2 weeks (not kidding). Then you can roll it all back into the trucks on the same time scale. This is very effective for companies that have seasonal products or temporary needs and lease warehousing space.

    Third, their system can handle pretty much any item shape/size under a certain limit. This is because they use people's hands for picking due to how terrible robot hands are at the moment.

    Even when their system was young and buggy and needed to be stopped and fixed, they were still beating the throughput of traditional warehouse solutions by a long shot (as evaluated in on-site side-by-side tests by companies that were considering purchasing their system).

    Yes, robotic warehouse solutions have been done for a long time... in fact there were some being worked on in the 1940's. It's not new, but Kiva has taken many ideas and refined them.

    Also, their head of robotics is quite good. He lead his teams at Cornell to win many of the Robocup titles. http://www.raffaello.name/ The company has a ton of very smart people.

  50. Old news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This technology has been around and in use for many, many years, and has been used by many companies. The last one I saw was powered by IBM series 1 computers, (I've been out of this field for a while.)

  51. ust because we can, that's why.-Famous first words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Of course they'll also have to realize at some point that maybe replacing 5 guys that made 20k$ a year with a 2 million dollar system wasn't such a cunning plan, but by then, it'll be time to write off the system for the stockholders so the board can get a bigger bonus. /morning grouch mode "

    Wow! A grouch who wants to pay more for goods. Look, all these changes like RFID, automation, outsourcing isn't just because a company wants bigger manager perks, but because the consumer complained about higher prices (sometimes on slashdot even) and they got what they wanted. It's a little late to say "I don't like the consequences of my choices". Now's the time to open that wallet you closed earlier and start paying what you should have paid earlier.

  52. Not new at all by Prime+Mover · · Score: 1

    I remember going to Eastman Kodak Family Day in Rochester, NY. My dad worked there (back when you held one job for your entire career). They had a robotic warehouse or two back around 1980. I stood in line so I could perform this task:

    1) Look up item in a paper catalog, with help from a Kodak(tm) Employee.
    2) Type the character code in a terminal and hit enter.
    3) Watch through the windows while automated forklift-things sped away and returned with a pallet of your desired product.

    This warehouse also had automated delivery carts. Like a golf cart that followed lines painted on the ground to deliver product around the warehouse. I was told that they never ran over people. I think my dad rolled his eyes when the tour guide said that.

    I also remember signing my name on a screen and getting a printout of it and watching industrial-strength dot matrix printers print out artwork from overtyped ASCII characters ("The Wave Of The Future!") Still have Kodak schwag pens and automatic pencils that I use.

  53. already exists in one form... by zogger · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ..and that's digital. Think about it, code is a combination of engineered schematics morphed with prose, it is text based robotics, text that "does stuff" and can run unattended. One of the main goals of a server is to get it set up so much you never hardly have to touch it, but it will keep chugging along, adapting itself to loads and demands, etc, text based robotic "service". And code can be sold or leased or rented temporarily or given away, same as a tangible. So we have the double precedent, biological entities as temps, and digital entities. We have cars for hire, taxis, buses, rental cars, that are temporary. We have temporary lodging, hotels, motels, RVs that are mobile. Temporary quartermaster services, restaurants and prepared take out food to go.

    So..eventually we'll have rentabot! (outside of IRC and the rooshian mafiyeh)

    I bet rentabrothelbot comes first, judging by human nature and all...

  54. Warehouse Robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    These have been in use for years now at the North East Distribution for Cardinal Health. It has 26 aisles with 60 foot tall racks, and the robots go from 0 to 35 miles per hour in 3 feet. They run on compaq proliant servers running windows nt and the 20,000+ boxes that it puts out to shipping with 7 people packing them in a day is equivalent to the team of 70 it took at the staples warehouse I used to work at. Cardinal's robot system is call WiTron (pronounced veetron, so I'm guessing it's a german company that setup). It is really neat to see in action.