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The Device NASA Is Leaving Behind

iminplaya writes "After years of delays, NASA hopes to launch this week a European-built laboratory that will greatly expand the research capability of the international space station. Although some call it a milestone, the launch has focused new attention on the space agency's earlier decision to back out of plans to send up a different, $1.5 billion device — one that many scientists contend would produce far more significant knowledge. "...it would be a true international disgrace if this instrument ends up as a museum piece that never is used.""

41 of 163 comments (clear)

  1. Intersting comment by 2.7182 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Nobel prize winner Steve Weinberg says in the article that it will be the only good science done on the ISS if it goes up!!!

    1. Re:Intersting comment by raddan · · Score: 2, Funny

      He also said that "This device could make discoveries that are Earth-shattering". I think it's pretty clear why AMS is getting canned. We like the Earth in one piece!

    2. Re:Intersting comment by dgatwood · · Score: 2, Funny

      Is it an Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator? Where's the kaboom? There was upposed to be an earth-shattering kaboom!

      --

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    3. Re:Intersting comment by Ruie · · Score: 2, Informative

      Nobel prize winner Steve Weinberg says in the article that it will be the only good science done on the ISS if it goes up!!!

      And with a very good reason. AMS (the device) is meant to observe extremely high energy cosmic rays - energies magnitudes higher than we can currently achieve in big (or small) colliders.

      These rays cannot be observed with ground instruments as once they enter Earth atmosphere they immediately react to produce showers of lighter particles - this is how we know they exist in the first place.

      One can hope to observe creation of antimatter, dark matter or tiny black holes - or who knows what else that has been happening in the upper atmosphere of Earth for ages but we did not have instruments to look.

      Contrast this with an exciting discovery of more virulent salmonella - a very important hazard to be avoided while you are eating chickens on the way to Mars - but I doubt it will make anyone run naked in the streets as, say, discovery of a reaction that makes dark matter could (it is the 30% of the universe after all !)

    4. Re:Intersting comment by Iron+Condor · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Nobel prize winner Steve Weinberg says in the article that it will be the only good science done on the ISS if it goes up!!!

      ...which is slightly misleading, of course. Back in the late eighties, early nineties, cosmic-ray scientists in the US formed a collaboration to conceive pretty much this system. It was called Astromag. It had a certain cost, NASA said it was too expensive, it got canned. Fast forward a couple years and Sam Ting, who has no clue of cosmic-ray science and only now discovers that there's interesting things to be done there drums up financial support in industry and various European partners for a harebrained gizmo that he called AMS that would never do a thing and be horribly expensive. NASA agrees to fly it in complete circumvention of any kind of peer-review that had axed Astromag earlier. In the following years, AMS hits snag after snag, snafu after snafu, redesign after redesign -- and after many, many redesigns finally effectively mimicks what Astromag would've been from the word go.

      The reason it took "500 scientists 12 years to build" the piece of junk is because these were scientists who had no clue of space particle research. Who were lacking the simplest background in anything to do with with space radiation. There were major press releases, for example, when a first prototype flew on the shottle and purportedly newly discovered a population of trapped electrons -- i.e. the van Allen belts. Which none of these folks had ever heard of, because they're all particle physicists who've spent their lives in tunnels underground.

      So at some point AMS runs our of money, steam, political will to ram an expensive industrial project down the throats of people who proposed to do the same damn thing for 1/10 the cost a decade earlier. I can't say I'm surprised.

      All that said, it is definitely an interesting project. It would most certainly be the only worthwhile science on the ISS. But it could've been up there as one of the first functional modules at some fraction of the cost.

      (And trust me I am moderating this comment -- go and chat to Ed Stone (PI on Voyager and former director of JPL who retired to head the Space Radiation Lab at Caltech) one of these days for a lesson on how politics drives science).

      --
      We're all born with nothing.
      If you die in debt, you're ahead.
    5. Re:Intersting comment by The+One+and+Only · · Score: 2, Interesting

      but I doubt it will make anyone run naked in the streets as, say, discovery of a reaction that makes dark matter could (it is the 30% of the universe after all !)

      My physics TA (a doctoral student) used to say that this "dark matter" talk reminded him a lot of how we posited an extra planet between Mercury and the Sun because that was the only way to account for Mercury's orbit. It turned out that there was no planet, Newtonian mechanics were just too imprecise to predict the orbit of Mercury. Likewise, his bet was that the effects attributed to "dark matter" would be accounted for once we developed more precise physical laws.

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  2. What's that item!? by FeebleOldMan · · Score: 5, Funny

    Argh someone new please RTFA and quickly post what THAT item is! The suspense is killing me!

    1. Re:What's that item!? by WallaceAndGromit · · Score: 5, Funny

      A large wooden rabbit.

      --
      Name: Mr. Anon E Mouse; SSN: 555-55-5555
    2. Re:What's that item!? by fbjon · · Score: 2, Informative

      A new type of cosmic ray detector for observing dark matter and such, if I read correctly. TFA says it took 500 scientists worldwide 12 years to build, so it's not just any old tin can.

      --
      True confidence comes not from realising you are as good as your peers, but that your peers are as bad as you are.
  3. Do not forget CAM by WindBourne · · Score: 4, Interesting

    These are 2 devices that require to be in space. The CAM is the centrifuge module. It would allow us to test biologicals systems to long term exposure to low G's. For instance, what would happen with mice over the course of their life time, if exposed to 6/10 G.. This makes all the difference to us as we speak of setting up a colony on mars.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Do not forget CAM by khallow · · Score: 3, Interesting

      And of course, the CAM is one of the modules that won't make it to space. When I read the title of the story, I immediately thought of the CAM not another cosmic ray detector. At least the Columbus has some small centrifuges (in the "biolab") so we'll be able to get a little low gravity information. I don't know if they can squeeze mice into those things. But even figuring out the effects of low gravity on small shrimp (for example) would be an improvement over the current best information which is medical records for a couple of days on the Moon for 12 people (from the Apollo program) as well as the endpoints, zero G and Earth gravity.

    2. Re:Do not forget CAM by darkwhite · · Score: 2, Informative

      Columbus has some small centrifuges (in the "biolab") so we'll be able to get a little low gravity information. I don't know if they can squeeze mice into those things. "Hmm, let's see what happens to a mouse if we spin it for a long time at 10000 G... interesting."

      "Biolab" centrifuges are usually for pelletting and separating small samples in tubes, etc. Are you sure the ones in Columbus are slow low-grav centrifuges?
      --

      [an error occurred while processing this directive]
  4. Huh? by EngrBohn · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From the article: "The AMS is an automated device with a specific set of scientific tasks."

    Would someone please explain to me why this device must be attached to the space station? (Other than that it was built to be attached to the space station.) It seems to me that such an instrument could've been placed on its own dedicated satellite.

    Or is this a case of "we'll get funding for this if we hitch it to the best funding-horse around"?

    --
    cb
    Oooh! What does this button do!?
    1. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      The space shuttle has a unique launch profile (with regard to g forces, lateral acceleration, vibration, etc.) and thus this can't be launched on any other vehicle without large (and expensive) adaptation / packaging.

      Once in space it will probably use a lot of power / cooling / processing power all of which is found on the ISS, not to mention communication systems and possible installation procedures (getting an astronaut to finish the wiring is cheap in comparison to bracing the wiring for the damage inccured on the launch profile)

      By the time they work out what extras are needed, what modifications are required and what mass the new system is then there probably isn't a launcher generally available that will take the resulting bulk into the required orbit. It would be easier to start from scratch and build a dedicated satellite rather than juryrig the current system to free flight.

      Note that according to the article they looked at other ways of getting it to the ISS and they all turned out too expensive. It's the shuttle thats the limitation in this case not the ISS.

    2. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      The option of turning AMS into a free-flyer has been explored and it is prohibitively expensive. Right now it is a precise, sophisticated instrument designed to merge with the ISS infrastructure. Adding propulsion systems, independent power generation, etc. could be done, but is not at all economical. Beyond that, it is probably best that this complicated device be accessible if some unforeseen problem arises.

    3. Re:Huh? by bigpat · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The option of turning AMS into a free-flyer has been explored and it is prohibitively expensive. Right now it is a precise, sophisticated instrument designed to merge with the ISS infrastructure. Adding propulsion systems, independent power generation, etc. could be done, but is not at all economical. Beyond that, it is probably best that this complicated device be accessible if some unforeseen problem arises. It is not economical to put things in space. Period. The question isn't whether it is prohibitively expensive, because every launch is prohibitively expensive, yet we still keep launching things. The question is how much it costs and whether it is worth doing.

      Give our soldiers in Iraq the week off and you save enough to put 5 of these in orbit. The money is there.

  5. Why does it need to be launched with a shuttle? by DaleGlass · · Score: 2, Interesting

    And why does it even need the ISS?

    Couldn't it be just launched with a rocket, after adding the necessary bits so that it doesn't need the ISS?

    1. Re:Why does it need to be launched with a shuttle? by Zocalo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Maybe because one of the "necessary bits" is a human being to run it? I'm just guessing here, based on the fact it's specifically called a laboratory as opposed to a module, but if it absolutely requires human intervention to operate and can't be automated then it's the ISS or nothing. It might even be possible to get the module into orbit with an alternate launch vehicle, but even if you can get it parked alongside the ISS, overcoming the logistics of physically mounting it without the aid of the Shuttle's robot arm could easily be another show stopper.

      I'm not going to be holding my breath on this one, quite frankly.

      --
      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
  6. A pity for physicists, perhaps but . . by thaig · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why do the rest of us care one iota about dark matter? It may answer fundamental questions etc and could eventually have some positive effect for the people who have to pay for it but surely if our discoveries have to wait 10 years for the next opportunity to put a similar instrument up it's no immediate tragedy?

    On the other hand any biological experiments on Columbus might have a far more immediate effect on us e.g. understanding salmonella is important because all of us are at some degree of risk from it.

    I am sorry for the people who see their great efforts at risk of being wasted - but not that sorry, because I know that the practitioners of every discipline think that theirs is the most fundamental and important to mankind in some way and all of them are wrong, because everything is important.

    --
    This is all just my personal opinion.
    1. Re:A pity for physicists, perhaps but . . by tomz16 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why do the rest of us care one iota about dark matter? It may answer fundamental questions etc and could eventually have some positive effect for the people who have to pay for it but surely if our discoveries have to wait 10 years for the next opportunity to put a similar instrument up it's no immediate tragedy?

      On the other hand any biological experiments on Columbus might have a far more immediate effect on us e.g. understanding salmonella is important because all of us are at some degree of risk from it.... Just consider that people would have posed the same argument about quantum mechanics, particle physics, etc. etc. a hundred years ago. Yet technologies based on the understanding of these theories fundamentally enables most of modern medicine today.
      No reason to be short-sighted here. The point is that you simply cannot perform a higher level science like biology or medicine in a vacuum, or you will very quickly stagnate. Just imagine trying to do modern biology or medicine with equipment from a century back! A better understanding of how our universe works will let us design new, better, and cooler gadgets for the people working on your salmonella to play with!
  7. Only 1 shuttle has blown up since then. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Some needs to write Mr. Ting a memo, reminding him that since that commitment is made, not one but TWO shuttles have been blown to flinders along with their brave crews.

    Um... no. The Challenger blew up in the 80s. The project was conceived in 1994.

    So since that commitment was made, not two but ONE shuttle has been blown up.

    You're also ignoring the fact that NASA is flying shuttle missions for far less important reasons. The ISS is a huge, ridiculous waste of resources. This piece is the silver lining on that cloud, the one major scientific venture. They're skipping it in favor of kiddie science projects and more stuff related to human activity, i.e. putting more lives in danger.

    1. Re:Only 1 shuttle has blown up since then. by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They're skipping it in favor of kiddie science projects and more stuff related to human activity, i.e. putting more lives in danger.

      If we want to make sure that human kind is not just limited to this one rock we currently inhabit, we are going to have to put lives in danger. Same thing happened when we wanted to be able to fly more than a few miles in an aeroplane. And this doesn't mean just making special test flights. It means making trips to space into a routine activity. Do it more often for whatever reason. The more it is done the more we know about how to do it, and eventually the cheaper it will become as that understanding is transferred to the technology of the day.
      I for one would like to see us diversify our environment. With the number of countries aquiring nuclear arms on the increase, with Putin reformulating the Soviet Union and taking a more aggressive military posture, with China starting to expand its military even more and become more aggressive in its foreign policies... never mind America unilaterally doing whatever it wants and becoming the nuclear armed paranoid schizophrenic of the bunch (everyone is out to get us so we need to attack first before they attack us... and check out the republicans new front runners... even more right wing religious than Bush) ... there is still a really good chance we could wipe ourselves out.
      --
      -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
  8. Re:Calling Mr Tang by moosesocks · · Score: 3, Interesting


    The credibility of the US is at stake here? Some needs to write Mr. Ting a memo, reminding him that since that commitment is made, not one but TWO shuttles have been blown to flinders along with their brave crews.

    The Challenger blew up in 1986, whereas the commitment was made in 1994. I don't think that anyone has ever questioned the fact that strapping yourself to the top of hundreds of tons of high explosives is inherently dangerous.

    If you want to make a more valid point, you could indicate that neither the space shuttle or the ISS are particularly well-suited for the purpose that they were designed to fulfill (and I'd imagine that many of the ISS's woes are stemming from the issues with the fact that the space shuttle is expensive, dangerous, and can't carry very big payloads -- literally the worst of all worlds).

    For what it's cost to send the shuttle into orbit umpteen times delivering parts to the ISS, I imagine that we could have designed and built a large rocket that could have delivered most of the payload in one or two trips. We'd already done it twice -- the US had the Saturn vehicles, and Russia more recently had the the Energia platform.

    If we had a better platform than the shuttle for sending large parts to the ISS, we might have actually been able to get some legitimate science done on it. The shuttle was *never* an optimal launch vehicle, even before the safety issues came to light.

    --
    -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
  9. Switched horses in mid stream by ptbob · · Score: 2, Informative

    This whole mess can be blamed on our IDIOT president. We had a project in progress, the ISS, and now we have to change our priorities to satisfy W's ego. Yes it's going to waste a ton of money. Yes it's going to piss off all the people that spent years developing the AMS detector. But obviously Bush doesn't care. Can't wait till he's gone.

  10. Re:Calling Mr Tang by Mr.+Underbridge · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Worse yet, this is clearly a case of putting politics over science. This 'lab' will accomplish nothing more, it seems, than the same insipid crap that's been done since the beginning of the Shuttle era: materials science in 0-g. Zero gravity can be simulated on earth, fairly well. Doing good astronomy needs to be done in space away from sources of interference.

    The remaining shuttle missions need to be used for real science, not some political crap that attempts to smooth over differences between US and Europe. As if a space station would solve political problems. Like they'll say "you guys really screwed up that Iraq thing, but you helped us out with the space shuttle so you're OK in my book."

    That's been the problem with the ISS since the very beginning - cute story for political news, bad use of resources for science.

  11. Private Enterprise? by Cycloid+Torus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Article states, "Griffin initiated a study last year into alternative ways to deliver the AMS to the station, but they proved to be prohibitively expensive."

    Does anyone know if this includes any of the nascent commercial carriers?

    If they could get this into a slightly higher orbit, could it be delivered later with a small amount of reaction mass?

    Perhaps they should re-open this for bids.

    --
    Lost in space at an early age. Survived the vacuum. Now rebuilding castle in air.
  12. Re:Calling Mr Tang by canuck57 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The credibility of the US is at stake here? Some needs to write Mr. Ting a memo, reminding him that since that commitment is made, not one but TWO shuttles have been blown to flinders along with their brave crews.

    Just think, how many days or is it hours of Iraq does it take to fund a solution to this? Not many.

    Think, for what has been spent on Iraq and Afghanistan, we could have a US space station around Mars or Jupiter, maybe both.

  13. Re:Calling Mr Tang by maxwell+demon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Zero gravity can be simulated on earth, fairly well.

    So how do you propose to simulate, say, just one hour of continuous zero gravity?

    Frankly, I don't know how useful or useless material science in zero-g is. However I'd strongly question your assertion that zero-g can be adequately simulated on earth.
    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  14. That ship has sailed..... by Stanislav_J · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "The credibility of the United States is at stake here..."

    I thought that in the last 7 years (the Bush reign), we had already pretty much lost whatever credibility we once had...

    --
    "Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket." -- Eric Hoffer
  15. Isn't it obvious that it's all wrong?!? by dpilot · · Score: 2, Funny

    This is Slashdot.

    We're talking about NASA.

    So of course it's wrong, by definition. NASA can do no right, on Slashdot.

    --
    The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
  16. Re:The reason? by nizo · · Score: 2, Informative

    The money is there; it is simply about priorities. Take a look at the budget to get an idea of where the money is going instead of somewhere constructive.

  17. Re: The government at its' finest! by Black+Parrot · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If NASA were private, and actually had to respond to stockholders, and had to produce science discoveries in order to stay afloat, NASA wouldn't be making stupid political decisions like this. Of course not: it would be making stupid decisions to make its next quarterly report look good instead.

    Some people's faith in businesses is as naive as others' faith in governments.
    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  18. Re:Calling Mr Tang by solitas · · Score: 2, Informative

    >However I'd strongly question your assertion that zero-g can be adequately simulated on earth.

    'Zero-gee': no, never. 'Free-fall': yes, quite well.

    Witness:
    http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/msad/dtf/tube.htm
    (cool image: http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/msad/dtf/images/stand1.gif)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallturm_Bremen
    (additional: http://www.spaceflight.esa.int/users/index.cfm?act=default.page&level=11&page=fac-dt)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drop_tube

    --
    "It's time to take life by the cans." ~ Bender ("Bendin' in the Wind", ep. 3-13)
  19. Share-ware by bigattichouse · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I remember working in a DoD shop, and we FREQUENTLY built shelf-ware. You'd get involved in the project, and do to the water-fall nature of the requirements, things would change so much (or get finished in time for a better tool to be built). And it went on the shelf. The worst part was you usually found out it was going on a shelf before you completed it, but you HAD to complete it to finish the contract and get some other task that would replace it... it was all very silly.

    --
    meh
  20. NASA Declares No Room; Re:Intersting comment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    SPACE SCIENCE: NASA Declares No Room for Antimatter Experiment
    Science 16 March 2007: 1476
    DOI: 10.1126/science.315.5818.1476

    News of the Week SPACE SCIENCE:
    NASA Declares No Room for Antimatter Experiment
    Andrew Lawler

    NASA has no room on its space shuttle to launch the $1.5 billion Alpha
    Magnetic Spectrometer, which is designed to search for antimatter from
    its perch on the international space station.

    Expanded and posted on a science blog where it was being discussed:
    NASA: Alpha to Omega
    Category: astro
    Posted on: March 18, 2007 10:39 PM, by Steinn Sigurðsson
    http://scienceblogs.com/catdynamics/2007/03/nasa_alpha_to_omega.php [scienceblogs.com]

    SPACE SCIENCE: NASA Declares No Room for Antimatter Experiment

    Lawler
    Science 16 March 2007: 1476
    DOI: 10.1126/science.315.5818.1476

    News of the Week
    SPACE SCIENCE:
    NASA Declares No Room for Antimatter Experiment
    Andrew Lawler

    NASA has no room on its space shuttle to launch the $1.5 billion Alpha
    Magnetic Spectrometer, which is designed to search for antimatter from
    its perch on the international space station.

    Hey, isn't that the Samuel Ting-Michael Salamon project?

    Yes, it is:
    http://ams.cern.ch/AMS/Secretariat/AmsWhosWho.html [ams.cern.ch]

    NASA HQ is surely going WAY over the edge in punishing Michael Salamon. He was the head of fundamental Physics at NASA HQ, then they sent him to the White House, where he was for half a year or so the
    Director of Physics at OSTP (Office of Science and Technology Policy). They pulled him out of the White House for what looks like political reasons.

    This was to be the major actual Science experiment on the space station. And they are killing it -- why? I am leaning towards thinking that it is a purely political decision, as the "room" or money
    argument is unconvincing, and as I say, it seems to be the #1 science project in the entire Space Station program.

    If one detects even a single anti-carbon nucleus, one almost has to conclude that someplace there is an anti-star performinbg anti-nucleosyntheis, which exploded asn anti-supernova.

    What a huge discovery that would be by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer. For that tremendous science value per dollar ratio alone, it should fly.

    I am going to write to my congressman and senators. Maybe it would be worth writing to, say, Oprah. The tax-paying public deserves to have SOME science done with their NASA tax dollars.
    ====

    Yep, I'd like to see it launched, too. Cancelling an experiment after spending 1.5 billion to build it is just the sort of idiocy that the govenment does all the time, though.

    If you follow NASA politics, though, you'd see that there's no reason to invoke any sort of "punishment" to understand this call. Griffin was given the order to cancel space shuttle by 2010. When you add up
    all the things that Griffin has been instructed to do with the shuttle before the drop-dead do-not-fly-it-any-more date, and look at the maximum flight rate that's considered to be safe, there are zero flights available.

    Of course, adding one more shuttle flight in 2011 would make perfect
    sense-- the replacement for the shuttle won't be available for
    another four years, so why not? But at the moment, that is being
    considered the "camel's nose under the tent" thinking, and "cancel
    shuttle by 2010" is a non-negotiable deadline.
    - Show quoted text -

    From the same blog and thread, a reply about Michael Salamon and the
    Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer:

    ==========

    He was the head of fundamental Physics at NASA HQ, then they sent him
    to the White House, where he was for half a year or so the Director of
    Physics at OSTP (Office of Science and Technology Policy). They pulled
    him out of the White House for what looks like political reasons.

  21. Re: The government at its' finest! by Carewolf · · Score: 2, Insightful

    That's only because you don't "vote the bastards out", you just alternate between the same bastards.

  22. Re:The reason? by iminplaya · · Score: 3, Informative

    Take a look at the budget to get an idea of where the money is going instead of somewhere constructive.

    It looks like a lot of it went to making that page as indecipherable as possible. I think someone inadvertently created a new crypto algorithm. Let's use something with a little more impact.

    --
    What?
  23. Not really by WindBourne · · Score: 3, Interesting

    EU can launch this JUST as much as America can. Why are they or Russia not launching it? In fact, Russia has the ability to put CAM AND AMS into orbit (progress can operate as a tug). Right now, American budget is getting very tight and we have paid for the bulk of the ISS. Russia AND EU are doing good right now.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Not really by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      It does not fit. Sounds silly, but that is the truth.

      The 'device' was designed for the shuttle cargo bay. Fitting it to a rocket would mean redesign and modifications. Making a new one would be cheaper.

  24. An international disgrace? by bl8n8r · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think we've got a pretty good head start in that category already. Another one isn't really going to matter.

    --
    boycott slashdot February 10th - 17th check out: altSlashdot.org
  25. Re:Calling Mr Tang by evanbd · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I don't think that anyone has ever questioned the fact that strapping yourself to the top of hundreds of tons of high explosives is inherently dangerous.

    To drag this further off-topic... Plenty of people have questioned that assertion. Or perhaps more accurately, plenty of people have questioned the idea of strapping yourself to a motor that can't be turned off (the SRBs and most solid motors) -- no current manned rocket actually uses high explosives for propellant. Many of these people are very smart and experienced, and many of them are trying to do something about it. Unfortunately, NASA and the current commercial providers don't seem terribly interested in attempts to reduce the risk of spaceflight by more than modest amounts.

    I've worked on rocket engines. There's nothing more inherently dangerous about them than there is about a jet engine or even your car engine. All contain high energy chemicals and at least moderately high pressures. The fact that historically rocket engines are more dangerous than modern airplane engines is a result of two things: higher maturity levels in aircraft engine design, and a very curious lack of attention to safety and reliability in historical rocket engine design.

    It does not have to be this way. We know how to build rocket engines that fail less often, and fail less catastrophically when they do fail. We know how to build rockets that don't kill their passengers when they fail. We need to stop assuming that space travel will always be as dangerous as it has been, and ask what we can do differently to make it safer from early in the design process. (It won't ever be completely safe, just as air travel will never be completely safe. It can, however, be continually improving in safety, and we can continue searching for ways to make it safer.)