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Tunguska Blast Was a Small Asteroid

malachiorion writes "The Tunguska event, an explosion on June 30, 1908, cleared an 800-sq.-mi. swath of Siberian forest. Was it a UFO crash? An alien weapons test? Now, Sandia National Laboratories has released its own explanation for the Tunguska event. Using supercomputers to create a 3D simulation of the explosion, the Department of Energy-funded nuke lab has determined that Tunguska was, indeed, the explosion of a relatively small asteroid. The simulation videos are well worth checking out — they show a fireball slamming into the earth from the asteroid's air burst. The researchers caution that we should be keeping watch for many more small, potentially earth-impacting asteroids than we are currently tracking."

35 of 277 comments (clear)

  1. The Gist by DrLudicrous · · Score: 4, Informative

    It seems that while the asteroid itself did not cause as much damage as previously believed (3-5 megatons vs 10-20), the asteroid was most likely much smaller than had been estimated. Too bad the article doesn't give some numbers about the size. Pretty scary thinking about one of these things hitting on top of or near a major population center.

    1. Re:The Gist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Pretty scary thinking about one of these things hitting on top of or near a major population center. Yes, every asteroid on television will undoubtedly hit over New York or Los Angeles. There must be some exceptionally high gravitational field at those locations.

      Perhaps these dramatic presentations aren't really that helpful. It could be that volcanoes won't erupt under Los Angeles, ice hurricanes won't hit New York, and 10.0 earthquakes won't toss Los Angeles into the Pacific Ocean (and why isn't Chicago or London ever destroyed?). It might be helpful for you to calculate the area that the Tunguska Blast caused devastation, divide by the surface area of the earth, multiply it by the surface area of our major population centers, and then multiply it by the probability of this type of event occurring in the next 50 years. But this is boring and lacks the 'scary thinking' and drama, right?
    2. Re:The Gist by RuBLed · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yes, every asteroid on television will undoubtedly hit over New York or Los Angeles. There must be some exceptionally high gravitational field at those locations.

      I'm not sure about that, most of the asteroid I had seen on television are hitting Kansas, particularly this small village...
    3. Re:The Gist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Yes, every asteroid on television will undoubtedly hit over New York or Los Angeles.

      That's called "wishful thinking".

    4. Re:The Gist by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yes, every asteroid on television will undoubtedly hit over New York or Los Angeles. There must be some exceptionally high gravitational field at those locations.

      No, they just suck.

    5. Re:The Gist by argStyopa · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm less concerned about a single city, which would be devastating but survivable.
      What scares me more was the (2004?) near-miss of an asteroid that could have hit somewhere in Pakistan or India precisely when they were in the middle of a very tense standoff. With immature command/control systems, what are the odds that would escalate into a nuclear shooting war, which would kill not the 10's or 100's of thousands of a single strike, but the 10's or 100's of MILLIONS of the resulting conflict.

      THAT'S terrifying.

      --
      -Styopa
    6. Re:The Gist by IndustrialComplex · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It appears that most asteroids are conglomerates of shale, so they wouldn't be that dense, as in not that densely packed. That's why the idea of blasting them with nukes is a bad idea, they just seperate and reform later.

      By reform I'm guessing that you mean reform via gravity? And since we are dealing with asteroids would it be safe to say that 'later' is later on an astrological time scale?

      On that scale, I can live with a 'temporary' fix. (Live, have children, grow old, die, kids grow old...)

      --
      Out of modpoints but really liked a post? 1BDkF6TtmmeZ3yqXbz9yhdYVqRYnwFoXDj
    7. Re:The Gist by Phanatic1a · · Score: 3, Interesting
      The article doesn't give direct numbers about the size. It says:

      Because of the additional energy transported toward the surface by the fireball, what scientists had thought to be an explosion between 10 and 20 megatons was more likely only three to five megatons. The physical size of the asteroid, says Boslough, depends upon its speed and whether it is porous or nonporous, icy or waterless, and other material characteristics.


      Let's pick the middle ground and say four megatons, that's 1.67E16 joules. From what I can see, non-metallic asteroids really aren't all that dense because they tend to be very porous, and it seems likely that a metal asteroid wouldn't explode in this manner but would instead impact and bury itself. So call it 2600 kg/m^3. Assuming Earth escape velocity is probably a safe bet as well; it's possible the thing was an extra-solar object but not likely. So that's 11km/sec. Unless I'm screwing something up, I get a mass of 276,000,000 kg, and a spherical asteroid 30 meters in diameter.

      I am on firm ground there? I mean, the only source of energy driving the explosion is the kinetic energy of the asteroid, it's just heating the thing up and making it go boom.
    8. Re:The Gist by Scrameustache · · Score: 3, Funny

      (and why isn't Chicago or London ever destroyed?). The Doctor.
      --

      You can't take the sky from me...

    9. Re:The Gist by Darinbob · · Score: 3, Funny

      No, they just suck.
      Or the people living there are exceptionally dense.
  2. I've often wondered by Cally · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...how the populations (including the military) in some of the more... nervous areas of the globe would react to a suddden blinding light in the sky followed by an enormous blast wave.

    --
    "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." -- Goethe
    1. Re:I've often wondered by teebob21 · · Score: 5, Funny

      I've often wondered...how the populations (including the military) in some of the more... nervous areas of the globe would react to a suddden blinding light in the sky followed by an enormous blast wave.

      Badly.

      --
      khasim (12/9/06): In a blind taste test, more people preferred Coke over the Pepsi that I had previously pissed in.
    2. Re:I've often wondered by AstronomicUID · · Score: 3, Funny

      From orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

      --
      You must write The Book, and then tear away belief. Only you can save the light of man --Gary Numan
  3. Re:Doh! by bennomatic · · Score: 5, Funny
    Aliens!

    In Soviet Russia, the forest flattens the asteroids!

    I welcome our new asteroid overlords.

    Imagine a beowulf cluster of those!

    1. Flatten forest
    2. ???
    3. Profit!
    --
    The CB App. What's your 20?
  4. Oh come off it! by Psychotria · · Score: 4, Funny

    Everybody knows it was Santa crash landing

  5. Re:Hmm.. by FredDC · · Score: 5, Informative

    This one they didn't notice until after it nearly missed earth.

    So to answer your question: Yes, it's very possible!

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    09 f9 11 02 9d 74 e3 5b d8 41 56 c5 63
  6. Re:Hmm.. by teebob21 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Would there be any chance of a small asteroid (one that could cause some problems) currently heading for earth not be detected yet by scientists? Yes. There is a very real chance that a chunk of rock the size of a basketball court could come at us tomorrow. A very very small, but very real chance. Asteroids that come from the sunward side of Earth's orbit are harder to detect because they are obscured by the Sun. One could come from that direction and astronomers may never see it. Most of the meteors that streak across the night sky are space stones no bigger than your hand, and usually about the size of a pea or smaller. Larger ones come down, but very infrequently. It is impossible for astronomers to chart, track or project the trajectories of the billions of space rocks left over from the formation of the Solar System.

    Imagine a world where a small asteroid fragment or comet had struck Russia 60 years after Tunguska - during the depths of the Cold War. It would be a very different world today indeed.
    --
    khasim (12/9/06): In a blind taste test, more people preferred Coke over the Pepsi that I had previously pissed in.
  7. Currently Reading. by Daemonax · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm currently reading Arthur C. Clarke's 'Rendezvous with Rama', which opens with the lines "Soon or later, it was bound to happen. On June 30, 1908, Moscow escaped destruction by three hours and four thousand kilometers -- a margin invisibly small by the standards of the universe."

    In the book, we humans then go on to set up systems to track asteroids that may be a danger to earth, and set up defense systems against them. I know that we currently track some, but how well funded are these organizations that do this? This is really something that is quite important, as it is almost certainly just a matter of when, not if. Do we have systems in place that will allow us to destroy or divert any large asteroids that are determined to be on a path to impact with earth?

    1. Re:Currently Reading. by Farmer+Tim · · Score: 5, Funny

      Do we have systems in place that will allow us to destroy or divert any large asteroids that are determined to be on a path to impact with earth?

      Only one. Be very afraid.

      --
      Blank until /. makes another boneheaded UI decision.
  8. Sometime in the future by tanveer1979 · · Score: 3, Funny

    A new study has been released proving that the fireball event in the server room was caused by slashdot and not an asteroid

    --
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  9. Gitmo next for kdawson by mach1980 · · Score: 5, Funny

    I'm not a US resident but isn't slashdotting/DoS-attacking a federally owned site a criminal/terror offence in the US?

    --
    Break the sound barrier - bring the noise.
  10. Re:Doh! by shawn443 · · Score: 3, Funny

    42, It was a giant cum shot from god. Bye karma. I wish I could think of shit insightful to say.

  11. Nah, would be no biggie. by foreverdisillusioned · · Score: 4, Interesting

    A 3-5 megaton blast over the Atlantic wouldn't cause so much as a rough surf advisory in Key West. In comparison, the USA built a 45 megaton bomb and the USSR's fission-fusion-fission Tsar Bomba would have been 100+ megatons had they not taken the sensible precaution of replacing the final fission stage with inert lead. If a mere 5 megaton warhead could cause such worldwide devastation, I'm pretty sure someone would have mentioned it before now (and trust me, I've read just about every far-fetched doomsday scenario imaginable.)

    As for the possibility of similar-sized asteroid impacting the ocean instead of exploding above it--well, the article only says that the asteroid is now thought to be "only a fraction as large as previously published estimates". That doesn't tell us anything. The Tunguska asteroid may or may not have been large enough to trigger a tsunami had it impacted an ocean instead of exploding over land. I'm going to assume that an impact will usually be less energetic (though perhaps more concentrated) than a heat-induced explosion, in which case no, the Tunguska asteroid never posed a significant threat to the world as a whole.

    That said, the Tunguska explosion is still fascinating as hell. I know that there's a lot of very strong evidence pointing to the asteroid theory, but it's still fun to toy with conspiracy theories. The atomic bomb was first being conceived of, Tesla's Wardenclyffe Tower was being tested (by some accounts, it was brought online the day before the explosion)... it's all absolute rubbish, to be frank, but it's very entertaining rubbish.

  12. Unlikely to be an asteroid by Sara+Chan · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The computer simulation is interesting, but the Tunguska event is unlikely to be an asteroid. There were strange events reported in the area for days prior to the explosion, there were odd lights, etc.

    An alternative explanation was proposed by Wolfgang Kundt, a researcher at the Institut für Astrophysik, University of Bonn:

    Kundt W. (2001),
    The 1908 Tunguska catastrophe: An alternative explanation”,
    Current Science, 81: 399–407.

    The basic proposal is that there was a natural gas leak, from the Earth. The gas rose to a certain height, then drifted downwind. After several days, a lightning strike ignited the airborne gas, and the flame then traveled along line (of drifted gas), to the ground source.

    It is worth reading the article. An asteroid impact is sexy, but the alternative explanation fits with the data much better.

    1. Re:Unlikely to be an asteroid by Pentagram · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It is worth reading the article. An asteroid impact is sexy, but the alternative explanation fits with the data much better. And how does a natural gas explosion leave the nickel and iridium deposits that were found at the site? An asteroid impact is not the accepted theory because it is "sexier", but because of Occam's razor.

    2. Re:Unlikely to be an asteroid by dreamchaser · · Score: 5, Informative

      You're wrong.

      One of many references if you'd bothered to look: http://www.physorg.com/news819.html

      Pertinent section:

      Expeditions sent to the area in the 1950s and 1960s did find microscopic glass spheres in siftings of the soil. Chemical analysis showed that the spheres contained high proportions of nickel and iridium, which are found in high concentrations in meteorites, and indicated that they were of extraterrestrial origin.

      I've seen the 'natural gas' theory before. It's so contrived that it's almost like science-comedy.

  13. Re:Hmm.. by iocat · · Score: 3, Informative
    Except... if it had nearly missed earth, that would mean that it hit earth, which it didn't.

    It nearly HIT earth. The problem with the sentence is the verb, not the construction.

    --

    Dude, I think I can see my house from here.

  14. Insufficient political attention by Kupfernigk · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The British MP Lembit Opik (name is Scandinavian) has attempted to draw attention to the seriousness of the problem. The media dismiss him as a crank. Watching him on television it has been apparent that television presenters and the like are bottomlessly ignorant on the subject, and because they can't admit it, they just seek to trivialise the issue.

    OK, we shouldn't expect media people to know everything, but we are very poorly served by their almost total scientific ignorance. I suspect that politicians would have become interested in global warming much sooner were the mass media not so piss poor at explaining scientific issues to the public, and almost perversely proud of it.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
  15. Re:Doh! by gbobeck · · Score: 4, Funny

    a farting contest gone wrong.. terribly wrong...

    Yeah, Chuck Norris showed up...
    --
    Navicula hydraulica plena anguilarum est. Omnes castelli tuus nostri sunt. Ed elli avea del cul fatto trombetta.
  16. Re:Doh! by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 4, Funny

    "What else would it have been?"

    The theory I've heard a few times was that it was anti-matter. Doctor Raymond Stanz, however, postulated that it may have been the result of a dimensional crossover. This theory has not been widely accepted, though, because no P.K. readings have been captured to support this claim.

    --

    "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

  17. Horizon by Spad · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The BBC's Horizon program ran a story about this last year

  18. Mirror by AftanGustur · · Score: 4, Informative



    The videos total over 56 Megabytes, so I have put up a mirror Here

    --
    echo '[q]sa[ln0=aln80~Psnlbx]16isb572CCB9AE9DB03273snlbxq' |dc
  19. Bad Summary by anilg · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Was it a UFO crash? An alien weapons test?
    Summaries on /. have started to deteriorate in quality. Was there any need for the above? Isnt it just pandering to the WOOWOOists? Why the need to add a tinge pseudo-science to science?

    You wont add "Is it the by homeopathy? Ayurveda perhaps" to an article on a new medicine/cure..

    Editors/Firehosers note.

    /rant
    --
    http://dilemma.gulecha.org - My philospohical short film.
  20. Re:Doh! by Spokehedz · · Score: 3, Funny

    This is what happens when you cross the streams. DON'T CROSS THE STREAMS!

  21. Re:Evidence is compelling. . . by careysub · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Compelling evidence? Lets see...

    1. That there have been far more events in recorded history similar to Tunguska which have been volcanic or geologic in nature... Mt. Saint Helens ... Krakatoa ... Lake Nyos... And which of these are examples of the supposed megaton range methane gas explosions? Why... none of them. Sorry, unrelated geophysical events don't provide any precedent for the proposed mechanism. The notion seems a bit difficult to buy into - the explosive limits for methane in air is usually quoted at 5-15% by volume, to make a mammoth blast you would need to establish this specific concentration range with millions of tons of methane, and have it ignited at the proper time. How does this happen geophysically? Any actual examples?

    2. That there was swamp land in the center of the Tunguska caldera. This is a typical place for methane to build up. But... millions of tons? Capable of sudden release? People should be finding commercial exploitable methane gas deposits in the surface strata of swamps I should think.

    3. The directions in which the trees had been knocked down indicated two discrete blast points some distance from one another. If this was observed, a twin asteroid would be a reasonable explanation (recent probe and radar evidence shows asteroids to frequently consist of loosely bound multiple bodies).

    4. There were odd glowing clouds seen over the area in the nights leading up to the explosion which could be explained by methane collecting in the sky. Reports on the Tunguska event I have seen report glowing clouds in the sky afterward, not before.

    5. No impact crater was found. Only the very rare iron asteroids are strong enough to make ground impact in this size range. The far more common stony bodies will fragment and explode in the air. This is a complete red herring.

    6. No meteorite was found. This is a red herring like 5. It exploded high in the air. The extraterrestrial particles found are the meteorite.

    The whole notion that this is an unprecedented event that requires alternate explanation is utterly wrong. Atmospheric explosions of extraterrestial bodies are regularly documented events. The Defense Support Program (DSP) has monitored atmospheric explosions since the 1960s and has found Hiroshima-sized (16 kt) events occurring about once a year. A simple statistical distribution permits calculating the frequency of larger events, a 10 Mt event is expected once very 120 years. See: an item about this in the Acoustical Society of America's newsletter. This being the case, there is really no anomaly here to be "explained away". Bolide explosions are a regular occurrence and we should see some in the megaton range in the historical record - most of course occur over open oceans and have had few witnesses and left no evidence.

    --
    Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj