Mars Asteroid Impact More Likely Than Before

sheldie writes "The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%" This is a follow-up to earlier coverage of this asteroid from last week.

Comments

Preview of news media coverage

[bwintx]

"BREAKING NEWS! [SFX: Ridiculously melodramatic sounder]

"NASA now says an asteroid impact on Mars is now three times more likely than previously thought.

"At this rate, the impact's likelihood will exceed 150% in just a few days."

Re:Versus Jupiter

[plover]

Measurement inaccuracies in the observations of its current trajectory. It's not like we can hold a tape measure up to it and figure out its precise position, or put it on a scale to check its mass.

The more it moves, however, the higher the precision of the measurements can be. So as time progresses, the astronomers will be able to reduce the circle of uncertainty.

Increasing probability

[Will_Malverson]

Remember how these things work - they made a few observations, from which they made a cone through which they're 95% (or whatever) sure that the asteroid will pass. Mars filled up about 1.3% of that cone, and so they can say that there's a 1.3% chance that Mars will be hit by the asteroid.

A few days later, with better observations, the cone shrinks, and now Mars takes up 3.9% of the cone. As the cone shrinks, Mars will continue to consume a larger and larger portion of it, right up until the time (maybe) that the cone shrinks outside of Mars and they determine that there will be no impact.

So remember, this is not unusual, and *every* non-impact event follows this pattern: Scientists find potential impact. Impact probability increases. Impact probability increases. (maybe a few more repetitions, too) Suddenly, they decide that it's not going to hit, and impact probability goes to zero.

Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[Ed Almos]

2007 TU24 - approaching
Approximate diameter: 319 meters (H=20.131)
Closest Earth approach: 1.44 LD at 0826 UTC on 29 Jan. -----
Inside ten LD of Earth: 24 Jan. until 3 Feb.
Inside Earth's Hill sphere: 27 to 31 Jan.
Closest Moon approach: 2.20 LD at 1533 UTC 29 Jan.
Data based on: JPL SSD orbit solution #13 downloaded 6 Dec.
based on 87 observations spanning 54 days
Optical observation: observed from 13 locations during 53.8661 days
discovered at 0626 UTC on 11 Oct. by the Catalina Sky Survey
last observed at 0313 UTC on 4 Dec. by the Spacewatch 1.8m telescope

This shows that a rock 319m in diameter will pass by the Earth on January 29th 2008, it's closest point will be about 1.4 times the moons orbit or about 357,000 miles. This is VERY VERY close.

Regards

Ed Almos

Re:Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[AbsoluteXyro]

If 357,000 miles is "VERY VERY close" then I am practically inside Angelina Jolie's vagina, considering my proximity to her and what I assume you propose for varying degrees of closeness.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[Markrian]

Actually, since the asteroid's mass is negligible to that of the planets, its mass is irrelevant to its trajectory as it can be considered a test particle. We only need to know six pieces of information - three spatial coordinates, and three velocity components. It's easy to measure four of these very accurately, but the radial distance and velocity of the asteroid with respect to us are harder. These are where the majority of the uncertainty comes from.

What terrifies me about the potential impact

[Chris Tucker]

is the tons of utter bullshit that Richard Hoagland will then spew about all the fantastic discoveries revealed by the impact, proving that there was an advanced civilization on Mars, that NASA is suppressing.

Dear Jeebus, please let the asteroid hit the "Face On Mars" dead center, just to piss off that con artist Hoagland.

Thanks!